Prediction of disease-free survival for precision medicine using cooperative learning on multi-omic data.

In precision medicine, both predicting the disease susceptibility of an individual and forecasting its disease-free survival are areas of key research. Besides the classical epidemiological predictor variables, data from multiple (omic) platforms are increasingly available. To integrate this wealth of information, we propose new methodology to combine both cooperative learning, a recent approach to leverage the predictive power of several datasets, and polygenic hazard score models. Polygenic hazard score models provide a practitioner with a more differentiated view of the predicted disease-free survival than the one given by merely a point estimate, for instance computed with a polygenic risk score. Our aim is to leverage the advantages of cooperative learning for the computation of polygenic hazard score models via Cox's proportional hazard model, thereby improving the prediction of the disease-free survival. In our experimental study, we apply our methodology to forecast the disease-free survival for Alzheimer's disease (AD) using three layers of data. One layer contains epidemiological variables such as sex, APOE (apolipoprotein E, a genetic risk factor for AD) status and 10 leading principal components. Another layer contains selected genomic loci, and the last layer contains methylation data for selected CpG sites. We demonstrate that the survival curves computed via cooperative learning yield an AUC of around $0.7$, above the state-of-the-art performance of its competitors. Importantly, the proposed methodology returns (1) a linear score that can be easily interpreted (in contrast to machine learning approaches), and (2) a weighting of the predictive power of the involved data layers, allowing for an assessment of the importance of each omic (or other) platform. Similarly to polygenic hazard score models, our methodology also allows one to compute individual survival curves for each patient.

Polygenic hazard score models for the prediction of Alzheimer's free survival using the lasso for Cox's proportional hazards model.

The prediction of the susceptibility of an individual to a certain disease is an important and timely research area. An established technique is to estimate the risk of an individual with the help of an integrated risk model, that is, a polygenic risk score with added epidemiological covariates. However, integrated risk models do not capture any time dependence, and may provide a point estimate of the relative risk with respect to a reference population. The aim of this work is twofold. First, we explore and advocate the idea of predicting the time-dependent hazard and survival (defined as disease-free time) of an individual for the onset of a disease. This provides a practitioner with a much more differentiated view of absolute survival as a function of time. Second, to compute the time-dependent risk of an individual, we use published methodology to fit a Cox's proportional hazard model to data from a genetic SNP study of time to Alzheimer's disease (AD) onset, using the lasso to incorporate further epidemiological variables such as sex, APOE (apolipoprotein E, a genetic risk factor for AD) status, 10 leading principal components, and selected genomic loci. We apply the lasso for Cox's proportional hazards to a data set of 6792 AD patients (composed of 4102 cases and 2690 controls) and 87 covariates. We demonstrate that fitting a lasso model for Cox's proportional hazards allows one to obtain more accurate survival curves than with state-of-the-art (likelihood-based) methods. Moreover, the methodology allows one to obtain personalized survival curves for a patient, thus giving a much more differentiated view of the expected progression of a disease than the view offered by integrated risk models. The runtime to compute personalized survival curves is under a minute for the entire data set of AD patients, thus enabling it to handle datasets with 60,000-100,000 subjects in less than 1 h.

On the effect heterogeneity of established disease susceptibility loci for Alzheimer's disease across different genetic ancestries.

INTRODUCTION: Genome-wide association studies have identified numerous disease susceptibility loci (DSLs) for Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, only a limited number of studies have investigated the dependence of the genetic effect size of established DSLs on genetic ancestry. METHODS: We utilized the whole genome sequencing data from the Alzheimer's Disease Sequencing Project (ADSP) including 35,569 participants. A total of 25,459 subjects in four distinct populations (African ancestry, non-Hispanic White, admixed Hispanic, and Asian) were analyzed. RESULTS: We found that nine DSLs showed significant heterogeneity across populations. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs2075650 in translocase of outer mitochondrial membrane 40 (TOMM40) showed the largest heterogeneity (Cochran's Q = 0.00, I2 = 90.08), followed by other SNPs in apolipoprotein C1 (APOC1) and apolipoprotein E (APOE). Two additional loci, signal-induced proliferation-associated 1 like 2 (SIPA1L2) and solute carrier 24 member 4 (SLC24A4), showed significant heterogeneity across populations. DISCUSSION: We observed substantial heterogeneity for the APOE-harboring 19q13.32 region with TOMM40/APOE/APOC1 genes. The largest risk effect was seen among African Americans, while Asians showed a surprisingly small risk effect.