Do socio-demographic factors modify the effect of weather on malaria in Kanungu District, Uganda?

BACKGROUND: There is concern in the international community regarding the influence of climate change on weather variables and seasonality that, in part, determine the rates of malaria. This study examined the role of sociodemographic variables in modifying the association between temperature and malaria in Kanungu District (Southwest Uganda). METHODS: Hospital admissions data from Bwindi Community Hospital were combined with meteorological satellite data from 2011 to 2014. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the distribution of malaria admissions by age, sex, and ethnicity (i.e. Bakiga and Indigenous Batwa). To examine how sociodemographic variables modified the association between temperature and malaria admissions, this study used negative binomial regression stratified by age, sex, and ethnicity, and negative binomial regression models that examined interactions between temperature and age, sex, and ethnicity. RESULTS: Malaria admission incidence was 1.99 times greater among Batwa than Bakiga in hot temperature quartiles compared to cooler temperature quartiles, and that 6-12 year old children had a higher magnitude of association of malaria admissions with temperature compared to the reference category of 0-5 years old (IRR = 2.07 (1.40, 3.07)). DISCUSSION: Results indicate that socio-demographic variables may modify the association between temperature and malaria. In some cases, such as age, the weather-malaria association in sub-populations with the highest incidence of malaria in standard models differed from those most sensitive to temperature as found in these stratified models. CONCLUSION: The effect modification approach used herein can be used to improve understanding of how changes in weather resulting from climate change might shift social gradients in health.

Antenatal Care Research in East Africa During the Millennium Development Goals Initiative: A Scoping Review.

INTRODUCTION: The global burden of maternal mortality remains high and inequitably distributed between countries. Antenatal care (ANC) was identified as critical component in achieving the Millennium Development Goal of improving maternal health. This scoping review aimed to summarize trends and critically explore research about ANC attendance for East African women conducted during the Millennium Development Goals initiative, with a specific focus on barriers to ANC access. METHODS: Using a scoping review methodology, aggregator databases were searched for relevant articles. Articles were screened by independent reviewers using a priori inclusion criteria. Eligible articles were retained for data charting and analysis. RESULTS: Following screening, 211 articles were analyzed. The number of relevant articles increased over time; utilized primarily quantitative methods; and involved authors with affiliations from various African countries. Many interrelated physical, social, and cultural factors influenced women's seeking, reaching, and receiving of quality ANC. The extent of studies identified suggest that ANC is a priority research area, yet key gaps in the literature exist. Limited qualitative research, and few articles examining ANC experiences of women from vulnerable groups (e.g. adolescents, women with a disability, and Indigenous women) were identified. DISCUSSION: These context-specific findings are important considering the Sustainable Development Goals aim to nearly triple the maternal mortality reductions by 2030. In order to achieve this goal, interventions should focus on improving the quality of ANC care and patient-provider interactions. Furthermore, additional qualitative research examining vulnerable populations of women and exploring the inclusion of men in ANC would help inform interventions intended to improve ANC attendance in East Africa.

Developing an online food composition database for an Indigenous population in south-western Uganda.

OBJECTIVE: To develop an online food composition database of locally consumed foods among an Indigenous population in south-western Uganda. DESIGN: Using a community-based approach and collaboration with local nutritionists, we collected a list of foods for inclusion in the database through focus group discussions, an individual dietary survey and markets and shops assessment. The food database was then created using seven steps: identification of foods for inclusion in the database; initial data cleaning and removal of duplicate items; linkage of foods to existing generic food composition tables; mapping and calculation of the nutrient content of recipes and foods; allocating portion sizes and accompanying foods; quality checks with local and international nutritionists; and translation into relevant local languages. SETTING: Kanungu District, south-western Uganda. PARTICIPANTS: Seventy-four participants, 36 Indigenous Batwa and 38 Bakiga, were randomly selected and interviewed to inform the development of a food list prior the construction of the food database. RESULTS: We developed an online food database for south-western Uganda including 148 commonly consumed foods complete with values for 120 micronutrients and macronutrients. This was for use with the online dietary assessment tool myfood24. Of the locally reported foods included, 56 % (n 82 items) of the items were already available in the myfood24 database, while 25 % (n 37 items) were found in existing Ugandan and Tanzanian food databases, 18 % (n 27 items) came from generated recipes and 1 % (n 2 items) from food packaging labels. CONCLUSION: Locally relevant food databases are sparse for African Indigenous communities. Here, we created a tool that can be used for assessing food intake and for tracking undernutrition among the communities living in Kanungu District. This will help to develop locally relevant food and nutrition policies.

Operative volume and surgical case distribution in Uganda's public sector: a stratified randomized evaluation of nationwide surgical capacity.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about operative volume, distribution of cases, or capacity of the public sector to deliver essential surgical services in Uganda. METHODS: A standardized mixed-methods surgical assessment and retrospective operative logbook review were completed at 16 randomly selected public hospitals serving 64·0% of Uganda's population. RESULTS: A total of 3014 operations were recorded, annualizing to a surgical volume of 36,670 cases/year or 144·5 operations/100,000people/year. Absolute surgical volume was greater at regional referral than general hospitals (p < 0·001); but, relative surgical volume/catchment population was greater at the general versus regional level (p = 0·03). Most patients undergoing operations were women (78·3%) with a mean age of 26·9 years. The overall case distribution was 69·0% obstetrics/gynecology, 23·7% general surgery, 4·0% orthopedics, and 3·3% other subspecialties. Cesarean sections were the most common operation (55·8%). Monthly operative volume was strongly predicted by number of surgical, anesthetic, and obstetric physician providers (훽=10·72, p = 0·005, R2 = 0·94) when controlling for confounders. Notably, operative volume was not correlated with availability of electricity, oxygen, light source, suction, blood, instruments, suture, gloves, intravenous fluid, or antibiotics. CONCLUSION: An understanding of operative case volume and distribution is essential in facilitating targeted interventions to strengthen surgical capacity. These data suggest that surgical workforce is the critical driver of operative volume in the Ugandan public sector. Investment in the surgical workforce is imperative to ensure access to safe, timely, and affordable surgical and anaesthesia care.

Access to Safe, Timely, and Affordable Surgical Care in Uganda: A Stratified Randomized Evaluation of Nationwide Public Sector Surgical Capacity and Core Surgical Indicators.

BACKGROUND: Access to safe surgery is critical to health, welfare, and economic development. In 2015, the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery recommended that all countries collect surgical indicators to lend insight into improving surgical care. No nationwide high-quality data exist for these metrics in Uganda. METHODS: A standardized quantitative hospital assessment and a semi-structured interview were administered to key stakeholders at 17 randomly selected public hospitals. Hospital walk-throughs and retrospective reviews of operative logbooks were completed. RESULTS: This study captured information for public hospitals serving 64.0% of Uganda's population. On average, <25% of the population had 2 h access to a surgically capable facility. Hospitals averaged 257 beds/facilities and there were 0.2 operating rooms per 100,000 people. Annual surgical volume was 144.5 cases per 100,000 people per year. Surgical, anesthetic, and obstetrician physician workforce density was 0.3 per 100,000 people. Most hospitals reported having electricity, oxygen, and blood available more than half the time and running water available at least three quarters of the time. In total, 93.8% of facilities never had access to a CT scan. Sterile gloves, nasogastric tubes, and Foley catheters were frequently unavailable. Uniform outcome reporting does not exist, and the WHO safe surgery checklist is not utilized. CONCLUSION: The Ugandan public hospital system does not meet LCoGS targets for surgical access, workforce, or surgical volume. Critical policy and programmatic developments are essential to build surgical capacity and facilitate provision of safe, timely, and affordable surgical care. Surgery must become a public health priority in Uganda and other low resource settings.

Geospatial Analysis of Unmet Surgical Need in Uganda: An Analysis of SOSAS Survey Data.

BACKGROUND: Globally, a staggering five billion people lack access to adequate surgical care. Sub-Saharan Africa represents one of the regions of greatest need. We sought to understand how geographic factors related to unmet surgical need (USN) in Uganda. METHODS: We performed a geographic information system analysis of a nationwide survey on surgical conditions performed in 105 enumeration areas (EAs) representing the national population. At the district level, we determined the spatial autocorrelation of the following study variables: prevalence of USN, hub distance (distance from EA to the nearest surgical center), area of coverage (geographic catchment area of each center), tertiary facility transport time (average respondent-reported travel time), and care availability (rate of hospital beds by population and by district). We then used local indicators of spatial association (LISA) and spatial regression to identify any significant clustering of these study variables among the districts. RESULTS: The survey enumerated 4248 individuals. The prevalence of USN varied from 2.0-45 %. The USN prevalence was highest in the Northern and Western Regions. Moran's I bivariate analysis indicated a positive correlation between USN and hub distance (p = 0.03), area of coverage (p = 0.02), and facility transport time (p = 0.03). These associations were consistent nationally. The LISA analysis showed a high degree of clustering among sets of districts in the Northern Sub-Region. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates a statistically significant association between USN and the geographic variables examined. We have identified the Northern Sub-Region as the highest priority areas for financial investment to reduce this unmet surgical disease burden.

Seasonal variation of food security among the Batwa of Kanungu, Uganda.

OBJECTIVE: Climate change is projected to increase the burden of food insecurity (FI) globally, particularly among populations that depend on subsistence agriculture. The impacts of climate change will have disproportionate effects on populations with higher existing vulnerability. Indigenous people consistently experience higher levels of FI than their non-Indigenous counterparts and are more likely to be dependent upon land-based resources. The present study aimed to understand the sensitivity of the food system of an Indigenous African population, the Batwa of Kanungu District, Uganda, to seasonal variation. DESIGN: A concurrent, mixed methods (quantitative and qualitative) design was used. Six cross-sectional retrospective surveys, conducted between January 2013 and April 2014, provided quantitative data to examine the seasonal variation of self-reported household FI. This was complemented by qualitative data from focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews collected between June and August 2014. SETTING: Ten rural Indigenous communities in Kanungu District, Uganda. SUBJECTS: FI data were collected from 130 Indigenous Batwa Pygmy households. Qualitative methods involved Batwa community members, local key informants, health workers and governmental representatives. RESULTS: The dry season was associated with increased FI among the Batwa in the quantitative surveys and in the qualitative interviews. During the dry season, the majority of Batwa households reported greater difficulty in acquiring sufficient quantities and quality of food. However, the qualitative data indicated that the effect of seasonal variation on FI was modified by employment, wealth and community location. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the role social factors play in mediating seasonal impacts on FI and support calls to treat climate associations with health outcomes as non-stationary and mediated by social sensitivity.

Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasitaemia among indigenous Batwa and non-indigenous communities of Kanungu district, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: The indigenous Batwa of southwestern Uganda are among the most highly impoverished populations in Uganda, yet there is negligible research on the prevalence of malaria in this population. Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasitaemia prevalence was estimated in an indigenous Batwa and a non-indigenous neighbouring population, and an exploration of modifiable risk factors was carried out to identify potential entry points for intervention. Additionally, evidence of zooprophylaxis was assessed, hypothesizing that livestock ownership may play a role in malaria risk. METHODS: Two cross-sectional surveys of Batwa and non-Batwa communities were carried out in Kanungu District, Uganda in July 2013 and April 2014 based on a census of adult Batwa and a two-stage systematic random sample of adult non-Batwa in ten Local Councils where Batwa settlements are located. A community-based questionnaire and antigen rapid diagnostic test for P. falciparum were carried out in the cross-sectional health surveys. A multivariable logistic regression model was built to identify risk factors associated with positive malaria diagnostic test. A subset analysis of livestock owners tested for zooprophylaxis. RESULTS: Batwa experienced higher prevalence of malaria parasitaemia than non-Batwa (9.35 versus 4.45 %, respectively) with over twice the odds of infection (OR 2.21, 95 % CI 1.23-3.98). Extreme poverty (OR 1.96, 95 % CI 0.98-3.94) and having an iron sheet roof (OR 2.54, 95 % CI 0.96-6.72) increased the odds of infection in both Batwa and non-Batwa. Controlling for ethnicity, wealth, and bed net ownership, keeping animals inside the home at night decreased the odds of parasitaemia among livestock owners (OR 0.29, 95 % CI 0.09-0.94). CONCLUSION: A health disparity exists between indigenous Batwa and non-indigenous community members with Batwa having higher prevalence of malaria relative to non-Batwa. Poverty was associated with increased odds of malaria infection for both groups. Findings suggest that open eaves and gaps in housing materials associated with iron sheet roofing represent a modifiable risk factor for malaria, and may facilitate mosquito house entry; larger sample sizes will be required to confirm this finding. Evidence for possible zooprophylaxis was observed among livestock owners in this population for those who sheltered animals inside the home at night.

Indigenous peoples and the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic scoping review.

Past influenza pandemics including the Spanish flu and H1N1 have disproportionately affected Indigenous Peoples. We conducted a systematic scoping review to provide an overview of the state of understanding of the experience of Indigenous peoples during the first 18 months of the COVID-19 pandemic, in doing so we capture the state of knowledge available to governments and decision makers for addressing the needs of Indigenous peoples in these early months of the pandemic. We addressed three questions: (a) How is COVID-19 impacting the health and livelihoods of Indigenous peoples, (b) What system level challenges are Indigenous peoples experiencing, (c) How are Indigenous peoples responding? We searched Web of Science, Scopus, and PubMed databases and UN organization websites for publications about Indigenous peoples and COVID-19. Results were analyzed using descriptive statistics and content analysis. A total of 153 publications were included: 140 peer-reviewed articles and 13 from UN organizations. Editorial/commentaries were the most (43%) frequent type of publication. Analysis identified Indigenous peoples from 19 different countries, although 56% of publications were centered upon those in Brazil, United States, and Canada. The majority (90%) of articles focused upon the general adult population, few (<2%) used a gender lens. A small number of articles documented COVID-19 testing (0.04%), incidence (18%), or mortality (16%). Five themes of system level challenges affecting exposure and livelihoods evolved: ecological, poverty, communication, education and health care services. Responses were formal and informal strategies from governments, Indigenous organizations and communities. A lack of ethnically disaggregated health data and a gender lens are constraining our knowledge, which is clustered around a limited number of Indigenous peoples in mostly high-income countries. Many Indigenous peoples have autonomously implemented their own coping strategies while government responses have been largely reactive and inadequate. To 'build back better' we must address these knowledge gaps.

Development of a Scorecard to Monitor Progress toward National Cholera Elimination: Its Application in Uganda.

In 2017, the Global Task Force for Cholera Control (GTFCC) set a goal to eliminate cholera from ≥ 20 countries and to reduce cholera deaths by 90% by 2030. Many countries have included oral cholera vaccine (OCV) in their cholera control plans. We felt that a simple, user-friendly monitoring tool would be useful to guide national progress toward cholera elimination. We reviewed cholera surveillance data of Uganda from 2015 to 2021 by date and district. We defined a district as having eliminated cholera if cholera was not reported in that district for at least 4 years. We prepared maps to show districts with cholera, districts that had eliminated it, and districts that had eliminated it but then "relapsed." These maps were compared with districts where OCV was used and the hotspot map recommended by the GTFCC. Between 2018 and 2021, OCV was administered in 16 districts previously identified as hotspots. In 2018, cholera was reported during at least one of the four previous years from 36 of the 146 districts of Uganda. This number decreased to 18 districts by 2021. Cholera was deemed "eliminated" from four of these 18 districts but then "relapsed." The cholera elimination scorecard effectively demonstrated national progress toward cholera elimination and identified districts where additional resources are needed to achieve elimination by 2030. Identification of the districts that have eliminated cholera and those that have relapsed will assist the national programs to focus on addressing the factors that result in elimination or relapse of cholera.

'We don't use the same ways to treat the illness:' A qualitative study of heterogeneity in health-seeking behaviour for acute gastrointestinal illness among the Ugandan Batwa.

The Batwa (Twa), an Indigenous People of southwest Uganda, were evicted from their ancestral forest lands in 1991 due to establishment of the Bwindi Impenetrable Forest. This land dispossession forced Batwa to transition from a semi-nomadic, hunting-gathering livelihood to an agricultural livelihood; eliminated access to Indigenous food, medicines, and shelter; and shifted their healthcare options. Therefore, this exploratory study investigated why Batwa choose Indigenous or biomedical treatment, or no treatment, when experiencing acute gastrointestinal illness. Ten gender-stratified focus groups were conducted in five Batwa settlements in Kanungu District, Uganda (n = 63 participants), alongside eleven semi-structured interviews (2014). Qualitative data were analysed thematically, using a constant comparative method. Batwa emphasised that health-seeking behaviour for acute gastrointestinal illness was diverse: some Batwa used only Indigenous or biomedical healthcare, while others preferred a combination, or no healthcare. Physical and economic access to care, and also perceived efficacy and quality of care, influenced their healthcare decisions. This study provides insight into the Kanungu District Batwa's perceptions of biomedical and Indigenous healthcare, and barriers they experience to accessing either. This study is intended to inform public health interventions to reduce their burden of acute gastrointestinal illness and ensure adequate healthcare, biomedical or Indigenous, for Batwa.

Identifying Predictors for Minimum Dietary Diversity and Minimum Meal Frequency in Children Aged 6-23 Months in Uganda.

Adequate complementary foods contribute to good health and growth in young children. However, many countries are still off-track in achieving critical complementary feeding indicators, such as minimum meal frequency (MMF), minimum dietary diversity (MDD) and minimum acceptable diet (MAD). In this study, we used the 2016 Ugandan Demographic Health Survey (UDHS) data to assess child feeding practices in young children aged 6-23 months. We assess and describe complementary feeding indicators (MMF, MDD and MAD) for Uganda, considering geographic variation. We construct multivariable logistic regression models-stratified by age-to evaluate four theorized predictors of MMF and MDD: health status, vaccination status, household wealth and female empowerment. Our findings show an improvement of complementary feeding practice indicators in Uganda compared to the past, although the MAD threshold was reached by only 22% of children. Children who did not achieve 1 or more complementary feeding indicators are primarily based in the northern regions of Uganda. Cereals and roots were the foods most consumed daily by young children (80%), while eggs were rarely eaten. Consistent with our hypotheses, we found that health status, vaccination status and wealth were significantly positively associated with MDD and MMF, while female empowerment was not. Improving nutrition in infant and young children is a priority. Urgent nutritional policies and acceptable interventions are needed to guarantee nutritious and age-appropriate complementary foods to each Ugandan child in the first years of life.

Socio-economic and environmental factors affecting breastfeeding and complementary feeding practices among Batwa and Bakiga communities in south-western Uganda.

Improving breastfeeding and complementary feeding practices is needed to support good health, enhance child growth, and reduce child mortality. Limited evidence is available on child feeding among Indigenous communities and in the context of environmental changes. We investigate past and present breastfeeding and complementary feeding practices within Indigenous Batwa and neighbouring Bakiga populations in south-western Uganda. Specifically, we describe the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of breastfeeding mothers and their children, and individual experiences of breastfeeding and complementary feeding practices. We investigate the factors that have an impact on breastfeeding and complementary feeding at community and societal levels, and we analysed how environments, including weather variability, affect breastfeeding and complementary feeding practices. We applied a mixed-method design to the study, and we used a community-based research approach. We conducted 94 individual interviews (n = 47 Batwa mothers/caregivers & n = 47 Bakiga mothers/caregivers) and 12 focus group discussions (n = 6 among Batwa & n = 6 among Bakiga communities) from July to October 2019. Ninety-nine per cent of mothers reported that their youngest child was currently breastfed. All mothers noted that the child experienced at least one episode of illness that had an impact on breastfeeding. From the focus groups, we identified four key factors affecting breastfeeding and nutrition practices: marginalisation and poverty; environmental change; lack of information; and poor support. Our findings contribute to the field of global public health and nutrition among Indigenous communities, with a focus on women and children. We present recommendations to improve child feeding practices among the Batwa and Bakiga in south-western Uganda. Specifically, we highlight the need to engage with local and national authorities to improve breastfeeding and complementary feeding practices, and work on food security, distribution of lands, and the food environment. Also, we recommend addressing the drivers and consequences of alcoholism, and strengthening family planning programs.

A Community-Based Approach to Integrating Socio, Cultural and Environmental Contexts in the Development of a Food Database for Indigenous and Rural Populations: The Case of the Batwa and Bakiga in South-Western Uganda.

Comprehensive food lists and databases are a critical input for programs aiming to alleviate undernutrition. However, standard methods for developing them may produce databases that are irrelevant for marginalised groups where nutritional needs are highest. Our study provides a method for identifying critical contextual information required to build relevant food lists for Indigenous populations. For our study, we used mixed-methods study design with a community-based approach. Between July and October 2019, we interviewed 74 participants among Batwa and Bakiga communities in south-western Uganda. We conducted focus groups discussions (FGDs), individual dietary surveys and markets and shops assessment. Locally validated information on foods consumed among Indigenous populations can provide results that differ from foods listed in the national food composition tables; in fact, the construction of food lists is influenced by multiple factors such as food culture and meaning of food, environmental changes, dietary transition, and social context. Without using a community-based approach to understanding socio-environmental contexts, we would have missed 33 commonly consumed recipes and foods, and we would not have known the variety of ingredients' quantity in each recipe, and traditional foraged foods. The food culture, food systems and nutrition of Indigenous and vulnerable communities are unique, and need to be considered when developing food lists.

Seasonality, climate change, and food security during pregnancy among indigenous and non-indigenous women in rural Uganda: Implications for maternal-infant health.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to decrease food security globally. Many Indigenous communities have heightened sensitivity to climate change and food insecurity for multifactorial reasons including close relationships with the local environment and socioeconomic inequities which increase exposures and challenge adaptation to climate change. Pregnant women have additional sensitivity to food insecurity, as antenatal undernutrition is linked with poor maternal-infant health. This study examined pathways through which climate change influenced food security during pregnancy among Indigenous and non-Indigenous women in rural Uganda. Specific objectives were to characterize: 1) sensitivities to climate-associated declines in food security for pregnant Indigenous women; 2) women's perceptions of climate impacts on food security during pregnancy; and 3) changes in food security and maternal-infant health over time, as observed by women. METHODS: Using a community-based research approach, we conducted eight focus group discussions-four in Indigenous Batwa communities and four in non-Indigenous communities-in Kanungu District, Uganda, on the subject of climate and food security during pregnancy. Thirty-six women with ≥1 pregnancy participated. Data were analysed using a constant comparative method and thematic analysis. RESULTS: Women indicated that food insecurity was common during pregnancy and had a bidirectional relationship with antenatal health issues. Food security was thought to be decreasing due to weather changes including extended droughts and unpredictable seasons harming agriculture. Women linked food insecurity with declines in maternal-infant health over time, despite improved antenatal healthcare. While all communities described food security struggles, the challenges Indigenous women identified and described were more severe. CONCLUSIONS: Programs promoting women's adaptive capacity to climate change are required to improve food security for pregnant women and maternal-infant health. These interventions are particularly needed in Indigenous communities, which often face underlying health inequities. However, resiliency among mothers was strong and, with supports, they can reduce food security challenges in a changing climate.

Neglected Tropical Diseases in the Context of Climate Change in East Africa: A Systematic Scoping Review.

East Africa is highly affected by neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), which are projected to be exacerbated by climate change. Consequently, understanding what research has been conducted and what knowledge gaps remain regarding NTDs and climate change is crucial to informing public health interventions and climate change adaptation. We conducted a systematic scoping review to describe the extent, range, and nature of publications examining relationships between NTDs and climatic factors in East Africa. We collated all relevant English and French publications indexed in PubMed®, Web of Science™ Core Collection, and CAB Direct© databases published prior to 2019. Ninety-six publications were included for review. Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia had high rates of publication, whereas countries in the Western Indian Ocean region were underrepresented. Most publications focused on schistosomiasis (n = 28, 29.2%), soil-transmitted helminthiases (n = 16, 16.7%), or human African trypanosomiasis (n = 14, 14.6%). Precipitation (n = 91, 94.8%) and temperature (n = 54, 56.3%) were frequently investigated climatic factors, whereas consideration of droughts (n = 10, 10.4%) and floods (n = 4, 4.2%) was not prominent. Publications reporting on associations between NTDs and changing climate were increasing over time. There was a decrease in the reporting of Indigenous identity and age factors over time. Overall, there were substantial knowledge gaps for several countries and for many NTDs. To better understand NTDs in the context of a changing climate, it would be helpful to increase research on underrepresented diseases and regions, consider demographic and social factors in research, and characterize how these factors modify the effects of climatic variables on NTDs in East Africa.

Dynamical Malaria Forecasts Are Skillful at Regional and Local Scales in Uganda up to 4 Months Ahead.

Malaria forecasts from dynamical systems have never been attempted at the health district or local clinic catchment scale, and so their usefulness for public health preparedness and response at the local level is fundamentally unknown. A pilot preoperational forecasting system is introduced in which the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system and seasonal climate forecasts of temperature and rainfall are used to drive the uncalibrated dynamical malaria model VECTRI to predict anomalies in transmission intensity 4 months ahead. It is demonstrated that the system has statistically significant skill at a number of sentinel sites in Uganda with high-quality data. Skill is also found at approximately 50% of the Ugandan health districts despite inherent uncertainties of unconfirmed health reports. A cost-loss economic analysis at three example sentinel sites indicates that the forecast system can have a positive economic benefit across a broad range of intermediate cost-loss ratios and frequency of transmission anomalies. We argue that such an analysis is a necessary first step in the attempt to translate climate-driven malaria information to policy-relevant decisions.

'We are all serving the same Ugandans': A nationwide mixed-methods evaluation of private sector surgical capacity in Uganda.

INTRODUCTION: Half of all Ugandans (49%) turn to the private or private-not-for-profit (PNFP) sectors when faced with illness, yet little is known about the capacity of these sectors to deliver surgical services. We partnered with the Ministry of Health to conduct a nationwide mixed-methods evaluation of private and PNFP surgical capacity in Uganda. METHODS: A standardized validated facility assessment tool was utilized to assess facility infrastructure, service delivery, workforce, information management, and financing at a randomized nationally representative sample of 16 private and PNFP hospitals. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to qualitatively explore facilitating factors and barriers to surgical, obstetric and anaesthesia (SOA) care. Hospitals walk-throughs and retrospective reviews of operative logbooks were completed. RESULTS: Hospitals had a median of 177 beds and two operating rooms. Ten hospitals (62.5%) were able to perform all Bellwether procedures (cesarean section, laparotomy and open fracture treatment). Thirty-day surgical volume averaged 102 cases per facility. While most hospitals had electricity, oxygen, running water, and necessary equipment, many reported pervasive shortages of blood, surgical consumables, and anesthetic drugs. Several themes emerged from the qualitative analysis: (1) geographic distance and limited transportation options delay reaching care; (2) workforce shortages impede the delivery of surgical care; (3) emergency and obstetric volume overwhelm the surgical system; (4) medical and non-medical costs delay seeking, reaching, and receiving care; and (5) there is poor coordination of care with insufficient support systems. CONCLUSION: As in Uganda's public sector, barriers to surgery in private and PNFP hospitals in Uganda are cross-cutting and closely tied to resource availability. Critical policy and programmatic developments are essential to build and strengthen Ugandan surgical capacity across all sectors.

You pray to your God: A qualitative analysis of challenges in the provision of safe, timely, and affordable surgical care in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Five billion people lack access to safe, affordable, and timely surgical and anesthesia care. Significant challenges remain in the provision of surgical care in low-resource settings. Uganda is no exception. METHODS: From September to November 2016, we conducted a mixed-methods countrywide surgical capacity assessment at 17 randomly selected public hospitals in Uganda. Researchers conducted 35 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders to understand factors related to the provision of surgical care. The framework approach was used for thematic and explanatory data analysis. RESULTS: The Ugandan public health care sector continues to face significant challenges in the provision of safe, timely, and affordable surgical care. These challenges can be broadly grouped into preparedness and policy, service delivery, and the financial burden of surgical care. Hospital staff reported challenges including: (1) significant delays in accessing surgical care, compounded by a malfunctioning referral system; (2) critical workforce shortages; (3) operative capacity that is limited by inadequate infrastructure and overwhelmed by emergency and obstetric volume; (4) supply chain difficulties pertaining to provision of essential medications, equipment, supplies, and blood; (5) significant, variable, and sometimes catastrophic expenditures for surgical patients and their families; and (6) a lack of surgery-specific policies and priorities. Despite these challenges, innovative strategies are being used in the public to provide surgical care to those most in need. CONCLUSION: Barriers to the provision of surgical care are cross-cutting and involve constraints in infrastructure, service delivery, workforce, and financing. Understanding current strengths and shortfalls of Uganda's surgical system is a critical first step in developing effective, targeted policy and programming that will build and strengthen its surgical capacity.