Opportunities and challenges for introducing HPV testing for cervical cancer screening in sub-Saharan Africa.

To protect women against cervical cancer, the World Health Organization recommends that women aged 30 to 49 years be screened with tests that detect human papillomavirus (HPV). If the countries that have the greatest burden of this disease-especially those in sub-Saharan Africa-are not to be left behind, we must understand the challenges they face and identify measures that can help them take full advantage now of innovations that are transforming screening services in wealthier countries. We reviewed policy documents and published literature related to Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, and met with key personnel from government and nongovernmental organizations. National policy makers understand the value of HPV testing in terms of its superior sensitivity and the programmatic advantages that could result from using self-collected samples. However, while these countries have national cervical cancer prevention strategies, and some have national departments or units for cervical cancer prevention, screening is rare, funding scarce, and quality low. Age guidelines are not strictly followed, with scarce resources being used to screen many women younger than the recommended ages. Published evidence of the benefits of HPV testing-including performance, safety, and cost-effectiveness-must be provided to ministry of health leaders, along with information on anticipated costs for training personnel, purchasing supplies, providing facility space, and maintaining test kits. Despite the obstacles, a joint effort on the part of global and national stakeholders to introduce molecular screening methods can bring better protection to the women who need it most.

Factors associated with utilization of insecticide-treated nets in children seeking health care at a Ugandan hospital: perspective of child caregivers.

In Uganda malaria causes more morbidity and mortality than any other disease and children below 5 years contribute the biggest percentage of malaria related mortality. Insecticide treated nets (ITNs) are currently one of the most cost effective option for reducing malaria-related morbidity and mortality, however the factors affecting their utilization in Uganda are still not well understood. This study examined the prevalence and factors associated with ITN utilization among children of age 0-12 years seeking health care from a Ugandan hospital using caregiver's reports. A cross sectional design was used to collect data using a semi-structured questionnaire from 418 participants. Binary logistic regression was employed to determine predictors of ITN utilization. Results show that the prevalence of ITN utilization among children seeking health care was 34.2%. ITN utilization was higher among children of age <5 years [37.0, 95% CI 31.81-42.21] as compared to children aged ≥5 years [22.9, 95% CI 13.77-32.01]. Source of mosquito net (OR = 13.53, 95% CI = 6.47-28.27), formal employment by head of household (OR = 6.00, 95% CI = 1.95-18.48), sharing a bed with parent (s) (OR = 2.61, 95% CI = 1.21-5.63) and number of children below 12 years in a household (OR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.65-0.99), were significant predictors of utilization. ITN utilization among children was below the set national target. The predictors identified by this study reveal opportunities that can be taken advantage of by malaria control programs to achieve the desired rates of utilization and subsequently malaria prevention in children.

Antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum antigens predict a higher risk of malaria but protection from symptoms once parasitemic.

BACKGROUND: Associations between antibody responses to Plasmodium falciparum antigens and protection against symptomatic malaria have been difficult to ascertain, in part because antibodies are potential markers of both exposure to P. falciparum and protection against disease. METHODS: We measured IgG responses to P. falciparum circumsporozoite protein, liver-stage antigen 1, apical-membrane antigen 1 (AMA-1), and merozoite surface proteins (MSP) 1 and 3, in children in Kampala, Uganda, and measured incidence of malaria before and after antibody measurement. RESULTS: Stronger responses to all 5 antigens were associated with an increased risk of clinical malaria (P < .01) because of confounding with prior exposure to P. falciparum. However, with use of another assessment, risk of clinical malaria once parasitemic, stronger responses to AMA-1, MSP-1, and MSP-3 were associated with protection (odds ratios, 0.34, 0.36, and 0.31, respectively, per 10-fold increase; P < .01). Analyses assessing antibodies in combination suggested that any protective effect of antibodies was overestimated by associations between individual responses and protection. CONCLUSIONS: Using the risk of symptomatic malaria once parasitemic as an outcome may improve detection of associations between immune responses and protection from disease. Immunoepidemiology studies designed to detect mechanisms of immune protection should integrate prior exposure into the analysis and evaluate multiple immune responses.

Use of the slide positivity rate to estimate changes in malaria incidence in a cohort of Ugandan children.

BACKGROUND: As malaria control efforts intensify, it is critical to monitor trends in disease burden and measure the impact of interventions. A key surveillance indicator is the incidence of malaria. Yet measurement of incidence is challenging. The slide positivity rate (SPR) has been used as a surrogate measure of malaria incidence, but limited data exist on the relationship between SPR and the incidence of malaria. METHODS: A cohort of 690 children aged 1-10 years at enrollment were followed for all their health care needs over a four-year period in Kampala, Uganda. All children with fever underwent laboratory testing, allowing us to measure the incidence of malaria and non-malaria fevers. A formula was derived to estimate relative changes in the incidence of malaria (rDeltaIm) based on changes in the SPR and the assumption that the incidence of non-malaria fevers was consistent over time. Observed and estimated values of rDeltaIm were compared over two, six, and 12 month time intervals after restricting the analysis to children contributing observation time between the ages of 4-10 years to control for aging of the cohort. RESULTS: Over the four-year observation period the incidence of malaria declined significantly from 0.93 episodes per person-year in 2005 to 0.39 episodes per person-year in 2008 (p < 0.0001) and the incidence of non-malaria fevers declined significantly from 2.31 episodes per person-year in 2005 to 1.31 episodes per person-year in 2008 (p < 0.0001). Younger age was associated with a significantly greater incidence of malaria and the incidence of malaria was significantly higher during seasonal peaks occurring each January-February and May-June. Changes in SPR produced reasonably accurate estimates of rDeltaIm over all time intervals. The average absolute difference in observed and estimated values of rDeltaIm was lower for six-month intervals (0.13) than it was for two-month (0.21) or 12 month intervals (0.21). CONCLUSION: Changes in SPR provided a useful estimate of changes in the incidence of malaria in a well defined cohort; however, a gradual decline in the incidence of non-malaria fevers introduced some bias in these estimates.

Safety and tolerability of combination antimalarial therapies for uncomplicated falciparum malaria in Ugandan children.

BACKGROUND: Combination antimalarial therapy is recommended for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in Africa; however, some concerns about the safety and tolerability of new regimens remain. This study compared the safety and tolerability of three combination antimalarial regimens in a cohort of Ugandan children. METHODS: A longitudinal, single-blind, randomized clinical trial of children was conducted between November 2004 and May 2007 in Kampala, Uganda. Upon diagnosis of the first episode of uncomplicated malaria, participants were randomized to treatment with amodiaquine + sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (AQ+SP), artesunate + amodiaquine (AS+AQ), or artemether-lumefantrine (AL). Once randomized, participants received the same regimen for all subsequent episodes of uncomplicated malaria. Participants were actively monitored for adverse events for the first 14 days after each treatment, and then passively followed until their next study medication treatment, or withdrawal from study. Outcome measures included the risk of adverse events at 14 and 42 days after treatment. RESULTS: Of 601 enrolled children, 382 were diagnosed with at least one episode of uncomplicated malaria and were treated with study medications. The median age at treatment was 6.3 years (range 1.1 - 12.3 years). At 14 days of follow-up, AQ+SP treatment was associated with a higher risk of anorexia, weakness, and subjective fever than treatment with AL, and a higher risk of weakness, and subjective fever than treatment with AS+AQ. Treatment with AL was associated with a higher risk of elevated temperature. Repeated episodes of neutropaenia associated with AS+AQ were detected in one participant. Considering only children less than five years, those who received AQ+SP were at higher risk of developing moderate or severe anorexia and weakness than those treated with AL (anorexia: RR 3.82, 95% CI 1.59 - 9.17; weakness: RR 5.40, 95% CI 1.86 - 15.7), or AS+AQ (anorexia: RR 2.10, 95% CI 1.04 - 4.23; weakness: RR 2.26, 95% CI 1.01 - 5.05). Extending the analysis to 42 days of follow-up had little impact on the findings. CONCLUSION: This study confirms the safety and tolerability of AS+AQ and AL in Ugandan children, and suggests that AQ+SP is safe, but less well-tolerated, particularly in younger children. As newer antimalarial regimens are deployed, collecting data on their safety and tolerability will be essential. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials Identifier ISRCTN37517549.

Monitoring antimalarial safety and tolerability in clinical trials: a case study from Uganda.

BACKGROUND: New antimalarial regimens, including artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs), have been adopted widely as first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria. Although these drugs appear to be safe and well-tolerated, experience with their use in Africa is limited and continued assessment of safety is a priority. However, no standardized guidelines for evaluating drug safety and tolerability in malaria studies exist. A system for monitoring adverse events in antimalarial trials conducted in Uganda was developed. Here the reporting system is described, and difficulties faced in analysing and interpreting the safety results are illustrated, using data from the trials. CASE DESCRIPTION: Between 2002 and 2007, eleven randomized, controlled clinical trials were conducted to compare the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of different antimalarial regimens for treatment of uncomplicated malaria in Uganda. The approach to adverse event monitoring was similar in all studies. A total of 5,614 treatments were evaluated in 4,876 patients. Differences in baseline characteristics and patterns of adverse event reporting were noted between the sites, which limited the ability to pool and analyse data. Clinical failure following antimalarial treatment confounded associations between treatment and adverse events that were also common symptoms of malaria, particularly in areas of lower transmission intensity. DISCUSSION AND EVALUATION: Despite prospectively evaluating for adverse events, limitations in the monitoring system were identified. New standardized guidelines for monitoring safety and tolerability in antimalarial trials are needed, which should address how to detect events of greatest importance, including serious events, those with a causal relationship to the treatment, those which impact on adherence, and events not previously reported. CONCLUSION: Although the World Health Organization has supported the development of pharmacovigilance systems in African countries deploying ACTs, additional guidance on adverse events monitoring in antimalarial clinical trials is needed, similar to the standardized recommendations available for assessment of drug efficacy.

Treatment of malaria restricted to laboratory-confirmed cases: a prospective cohort study in Ugandan children.

BACKGROUND: Presumptive treatment of malaria in febrile children is widely advocated in Africa. This may occur in the absence of diagnostic testing or even when diagnostic testing is performed but fails to detect malaria parasites. Such over-treatment of malaria has been tolerated in the era of inexpensive and safe monotherapy. However, with the introduction of new artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), presumptive treatment becomes economically and clinically less acceptable. METHODS: The risks and benefits of only treating children with microscopy confirmed malaria using a prospective cohort design were investigated. A representative sample of 601 children between one and 10 years of age were recruited from a census population in Kampala, Uganda and were followed for all of their health care needs in a study clinic. Standard microscopy was performed each time a child presented with a new episode of fever and antimalarial therapy given only if the blood smear was positive. RESULTS: Of 5,895 visits for new medical problems 40% were for febrile illnesses. Of the 2,359 episodes of new febrile illnesses, blood smears were initially reported as negative in 1,608 (68%) and no antimalarial therapy was given. Six of these initially negative smears were reported to be positive following quality control reading of all blood smears: four of these patients were subsequently diagnosed with uncomplicated malaria and two cleared their parasites without antimalarial treatment. Of the 1,602 new febrile illnesses in which the final blood smear reading was classified as negative, only 13 episodes (0.8%) were diagnosed with malaria in the subsequent 7 days. All 13 of these episodes of malaria were uncomplicated and were successfully treated. CONCLUSION: In this urban setting, malaria was responsible for only 32% of febrile episodes. Withholding antimalarial therapy in febrile children with negative blood smears was safe and saved over 1,600 antimalarial treatments in 601 children over an 18-month period. In the era of expensive ACT, directing resources towards improving diagnostic and treatment practices may provide a cost-effective measure for promoting rational use of antimalarial therapy.

Combination therapy for uncomplicated falciparum malaria in Ugandan children: a randomized trial.

CONTEXT: Combination therapy is now widely advocated as first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria in Africa. However, it is not clear which treatment regimens are optimal or how to best assess comparative efficacies in highly endemic areas. OBJECTIVE: To compare the efficacy and safety of 3 leading combination therapies for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Single-blind randomized clinical trial, conducted between November 2004 and June 2006, of treatment for all episodes of uncomplicated malaria in children in an urban community in Kampala, Uganda. A total of 601 healthy children (aged 1-10 years) were randomly selected and were followed up for 13 to 19 months, receiving all medical care at the study clinic. INTERVENTIONS: Study participants were randomized to receive 1 of 3 combination therapies (amodiaquine plus sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, amodiaquine plus artesunate, or artemether-lumefantrine) when diagnosed with their first episode of uncomplicated malaria. The same assigned treatment was given for all subsequent episodes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: 28-Day risk of parasitological failure (unadjusted and adjusted by genotyping to distinguish recrudescence from new infection) for each episode of uncomplicated malaria treated with study drugs. RESULTS: Of enrolled children, 329 of 601 were diagnosed with at least 1 episode of uncomplicated malaria, and 687 episodes of Plasmodium falciparum malaria were treated with study drugs. The 28-day risk of treatment failure (unadjusted by genotyping) for individual episodes of malaria were 26.1% (95% CI, 21.1%-32.1%) for amodiaquine plus sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, 17.4% (95% CI, 13.1%-23.1%) for amodiaquine plus artesunate, and 6.7% (95% CI, 3.9%-11.2%) for artemether-lumefantrine (P<.05 for all pairwise comparisons). When only recrudescent treatment failures were considered, the risks of failure were 14.1% (95% CI, 10.3%-19.2%), 4.6% (95% CI, 2.5%-8.3%), and 1.0% (95% CI, 0.3%-4.0%) for the same order of study drugs, respectively (P< or =.008 for all pairwise comparisons, except amodiaquine plus artesunate vs artemether-lumefantrine, P = .05). There were no deaths or cases of severe malaria. Significant reductions in anemia (9.3% [95% CI, 7.0%-12.0%] at enrollment vs 0.6% [95% CI, 0.1%-2.2%] during the last 2 months of follow-up; P<.001) and asymptomatic parasitemia (18.6% [95% CI, 15.5%-22.1%] at enrollment vs 2.3% [95% CI, 1.5%-3.5%] during the last 2 months of follow-up; P<.001) were observed according to routine testing. CONCLUSIONS: Artemether-lumefantrine was the most efficacious treatment for uncomplicated malaria in the study population. With all study regimens, the provision of prompt and reasonably effective facility-based treatment was associated with good outcomes in long-term health measures. TRIAL REGISTRATION: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN37517549.

Cost-effectiveness of an HPV self-collection campaign in Uganda: comparing models for delivery of cervical cancer screening in a low-income setting.

With the availability of a low-cost HPV DNA test that can be administered by either a healthcare provider or a woman herself, programme planners require information on the costs and cost-effectiveness of implementing cervical cancer screening programmes in low-resource settings under different models of healthcare delivery. Using data from the START-UP demonstration project and a micro-costing approach, we estimated the health and economic impact of once-in-a-lifetime HPV self-collection campaign relative to clinic-based provider-collection of HPV specimens in Uganda. We used an individual-based Monte Carlo simulation model of the natural history of HPV and cervical cancer to estimate lifetime health and economic outcomes associated with screening with HPV DNA testing once in a lifetime (clinic-based provider-collection vs a self-collection campaign). Test performance and cost data were obtained from the START-UP demonstration project using a micro-costing approach. Model outcomes included lifetime risk of cervical cancer, total lifetime costs (in 2011 international dollars [I$]), and life expectancy. Cost-effectiveness ratios were expressed using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). When both strategies achieved 75% population coverage, ICERs were below Uganda's per capita GDP (self-collection: I$80 per year of life saved [YLS]; provider-collection: I$120 per YLS). When the self-collection campaign achieved coverage gains of 15-20%, it was more effective than provider-collection, and had a lower ICER unless coverage with both strategies was 50% or less. Findings were sensitive to cryotherapy compliance among screen-positive women and relative HPV test performance. The primary limitation of this analysis is that self-collection costs are based on a hypothetical campaign but are based on unit costs from Uganda. Once-in-a-lifetime screening with HPV self-collection may be very cost-effective and reduce cervical cancer risk by > 20% if coverage is high. Demonstration projects will be needed to confirm the validity of our logistical, costing and compliance assumptions.

Prevention and treatment strategies used for the community management of childhood fever in Kampala, Uganda.

To assess malaria-related prevention and treatment strategies in an urban parish of Kampala, Uganda, a questionnaire was administered to 339 randomly selected primary caregivers of children 1-10 years of age. Our study population was relatively stable and well educated, with better access to health services than many in Africa. Ownership of an insecticide-treated net (ITN) was reported by 11% of households and was predicted only by greater household wealth (highest quartile versus lowest quartile: odds ratio [OR] 21.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.74-173). Among women, 5% reported use of an ITN and 11% used intermittent preventive therapy (IPT) during their last pregnancy. Use of appropriate IPT during pregnancy was predicted only by completion of secondary education or higher (OR, 2.87; 95% CI, 1.13-7.21). Children of 123 (36%) caregivers had experienced an episode of fever in the past 2 weeks. Of these, 22% received an anti-malarial that could be considered "adequate" (combination therapy or quinine). Only 1% of febrile children received adequate treatment at the correct dose within 24 hours of onset of fever. The only independent predictor of treatment with an adequate anti-malarial was accessing a clinic or hospital as the first source of care. In this urban area, use of appropriate malaria control measures occurs uncommonly.

Longitudinal study of urban malaria in a cohort of Ugandan children: description of study site, census and recruitment.

BACKGROUND: Studies of malaria in well-defined cohorts offer important data about the epidemiology of this complex disease, but few have been done in urban African populations. To generate a sampling frame for a longitudinal study of malaria incidence and treatment in Kampala, Uganda, a census, mapping and survey project was conducted. METHODS: All households in a geographically defined area were enumerated and mapped. Probability sampling was used to recruit a representative sample of children and collect baseline descriptive data for future longitudinal studies. RESULTS: 16,172 residents living in 4931 households in a densely-populated community (18,824 persons/km2) were enumerated. A total of 582 households were approached with at least one child less than 10 years of age in order to recruit 601 children living in 322 households. At enrollment, 19% were parasitaemic, 24% were anaemic, 43% used bednets, and 6% used insecticide-treated nets. Low G6PD activity (OR = 0.33, P = 0.009) and bednet use (OR = 0.64, P = 0.045) were associated with a decreased risk of parasitaemia. Increasing age (OR = 0.62 for each year, P < 0.001) and bednet use (OR = 0.58, P = 0.02) were associated with a decreased risk of anaemia CONCLUSION: Detailed surveys of target populations in urban Africa can provide valuable descriptive data and provide a sampling frame for recruitment of representative cohorts for longitudinal studies. Plans to use a multi-disciplinary approach to improve the understanding of the distribution and determinants of malaria incidence and response to therapy in this population are discussed.

Incidence of malaria and efficacy of combination antimalarial therapies over 4 years in an urban cohort of Ugandan children.

BACKGROUND: Combination therapies are now recommended to treat uncomplicated malaria. We used a longitudinal design to assess the incidence of malaria and compare the efficacies of 3 combination regimens in Kampala, Uganda. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Children aged 1-10 years were enrolled from randomly selected households in 2004-05 and 2007, and were followed at least monthly through 2008. Insecticide-treated bednets (ITNs) were provided in 2006. Children were randomized upon their first episode, and then treated for all episodes of uncomplicated malaria with amodiaquine/sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (AQ/SP), artesunate/amodiaquine (AS/AQ), or artemether/lumefantrine (AL). Risks of parasitological failure were determined for each episode of uncomplicated malaria and clinical parameters were followed. A total of 690 children experienced 1464 episodes of malaria. 96% of these episodes were uncomplicated malaria and treated with study drugs; 94% were due to Plasmodium falciparum. The rank order of treatment efficacy was AL > AS/AQ > AQ/SP. Failure rates increased over time for AQ/SP, but not the artemisinin-based regimens. Over the 4-year course of the study the prevalence of asymptomatic parasitemia decreased from 11.8% to 1.4%, the incidence of malaria decreased from 1.55 to 0.32 per person year, and the prevalence of anemia (hemoglobin <10 gm/dL) decreased from 5.9% to 1.0%. No episodes of severe malaria (based on WHO criteria) and no deaths were seen. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: With ready access to combination therapies and distribution of ITNs, responses were excellent for artemisinin-containing regimens, severe malaria was not seen, and the incidence of malaria and prevalence of parasitemia and anemia decreased steadily over time. TRIAL REGISTRATION: isrctn.org ISRCTN37517549.

Impact of the method of G6PD deficiency assessment on genetic association studies of malaria susceptibility.

BACKGROUND: Clinical association studies have yielded varied results regarding the impact of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency upon susceptibility to malaria. Analyses have been complicated by varied methods used to diagnose G6PD deficiency. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We compared the association between uncomplicated malaria incidence and G6PD deficiency in a cohort of 601 Ugandan children using two different diagnostic methods, enzyme activity and G6PD genotype (G202A, the predominant East African allele). Although roughly the same percentage of males were identified as deficient using enzyme activity (12%) and genotype (14%), nearly 30% of males who were enzymatically deficient were wild-type at G202A. The number of deficient females was three-fold higher with assessment by genotype (21%) compared to enzyme activity (7%). Heterozygous females accounted for the majority (46/54) of children with a mutant genotype but normal enzyme activity. G6PD deficiency, as determined by G6PD enzyme activity, conferred a 52% (relative risk [RR] 0.48, 95% CI 0.31-0.75) reduced risk of uncomplicated malaria in females. In contrast, when G6PD deficiency was defined based on genotype, the protective association for females was no longer seen (RR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.70-1.39). Notably, restricting the analysis to those females who were both genotypically and enzymatically deficient, the association of deficiency and protection from uncomplicated malaria was again demonstrated in females, but not in males (RR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.37-0.88 for females). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study underscores the impact that the method of identifying G6PD deficient individuals has upon association studies of G6PD deficiency and uncomplicated malaria. We found that G6PD-deficient females were significantly protected against uncomplicated malaria, but this protection was only seen when G6PD deficiency is described using enzyme activity. These observations may help to explain the discrepancy in some published association studies involving G6PD deficiency and uncomplicated malaria.

Decreasing efficacy of antimalarial combination therapy in Uganda is explained by decreasing host immunity rather than increasing drug resistance.

BACKGROUND: Improved control efforts are reducing the burden of malaria in Africa but may result in decreased antimalarial immunity. METHODS: A cohort of 129 children aged 1-10 years in Kampala, Uganda, were treated with amodiaquine plus sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine for 396 episodes of uncomplicated malaria over a 29-month period as part of a longitudinal clinical trial. RESULTS: The risk of treatment failure increased over the course of the study from 5% to 21% (hazard ratio [HR], 2.4 per year [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.3-4.3]). Parasite genetic polymorphisms were associated with an increased risk of failure, but their prevalence did not change over time. Three markers of antimalarial immunity were associated with a decreased risk of treatment failure: increased age (HR, 0.5 per 5-year increase [95% CI, 0.2-1.2]), living in an area of higher malaria incidence (HR, 0.26 [95% CI, 0.11-0.64]), and recent asymptomatic parasitemia (HR, 0.06 [95% CI, 0.01-0.36]). In multivariate analysis, adjustment for recent asymptomatic parasitemia, but not parasite polymorphisms, removed the association between calendar time and the risk of treatment failure (HR, 1.5 per year [95% CI, 0.7-3.4]), suggesting that worsening treatment efficacy was best explained by decreasing host immunity. CONCLUSION: Declining immunity in our study population appeared to be the primary factor underlying decreased efficacy of amodiaquine plus sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. With improved malaria-control efforts, decreasing immunity may unmask resistance to partially efficacious drugs.

Factors determining the heterogeneity of malaria incidence in children in Kampala, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Malaria risk may be heterogeneous in urban areas of Africa. Identifying those at highest risk for malaria may lead to more targeted approaches to malaria control. METHODS: A representative sample of 558 children aged 1-10 years were recruited from a census population in a single parish of Kampala and followed up for 2 years. Malaria was diagnosed when a child presented with a new episode of fever and a thick blood smear positive for parasites. Multivariate analysis was used to identify independent predictors of malaria incidence. RESULTS: A total of 695 episodes of uncomplicated malaria were diagnosed after 901 person years of follow-up. Sickle cell trait (relative risk [RR], 0.68 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.52-0.90]), glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency in female children (RR, 0.48 [95% CI, 0.31-0.75]), and use of an insecticide-treated bed net (RR, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.32-0.83]) were associated with a lower risk of malaria. The distance of the subject's residence from a swamp bordering the parish showed a strong "dose-response" relationship; living in the swamp was the strongest predictor of malaria risk (RR, 3.94 [95% CI, 2.61-5.97]). CONCLUSION: Malaria incidence was highly heterogeneous in this urban cohort of children. Malaria control interventions in urban areas should target populations living in pockets of high malaria risk.

Asymptomatic parasitaemia as a risk factor for symptomatic malaria in a cohort of Ugandan children.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the prevalence of asymptomatic parasitaemia, determine its association with symptomatic malaria, and identify independent predictors of asymptomatic parasitaemia in a cohort of children from Kampala, Uganda. METHODS: A total of 316 children aged 6 months to 5 years were recruited from the community. The prevalence of asymptomatic parasitaemia was assessed at enrollment and approximately every 30 days during follow-up. Participants received all of their health care in our clinic, including a standardized approach to the diagnosis and treatment of symptomatic malaria. RESULTS: A total of 283 (90%) subjects completed the full 1-year follow-up and were included in this study, yielding 2557 routine smears. The prevalence of asymptomatic parasitaemia was 17% at enrollment, but 5-8% for the remainder of the study. The risk of developing symptomatic malaria within 30 days was significantly higher in those with a positive routine than in those with a negative one (50%vs. 9%, P < 0.001). Higher parasite densities were associated with increased odds of developing symptomatic malaria within 30 days (P = 0.003). Only 11% of episodes of asymptomatic parasitaemia, involving 6% of subjects, arose and cleared without therapy. In multivariate analysis the only significant risk factor for asymptomatic parasitaemia was whether a child had any episode of symptomatic malaria during the course of the study (OR = 3.0, P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: In our cohort of children from an urban meso-endemic environment, asymptomatic parasitaemia was uncommon and frequently followed by symptomatic malaria. This suggests that presumptive treatment of asymptomatic parasitaemia in such settings would be an efficient means of preventing symptomatic malaria.

Total lymphocyte count of 1200 is not a sensitive predictor of CD4 lymphocyte count among patients with HIV disease in Kampala, Uganda.

INTRODUCTION: Total Lymphocyte Count (TLC) has been found to be an inexpensive and useful marker for staging disease, predicting progression to AIDS and death and monitoring response to ART. However, the correlation between TLC and CD4 has not been consistent. Access to HAART is expanding in Kampala, Uganda, yet there are no published data evaluating the utility of TLC as inexpensive surrogate marker of CD4 cell count to help guide therapeutic decisions. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate clinical illnesses and total lymphocyte count (TLC) as surrogate markers of the CD4 cell count in HIV infected persons being considered for ART. METHODS: A total of 131 patients were enrolled and evaluated by clinical assessment, TLC and CD4 count. Clinical illnesses and TLC dichotomized at various cut-point values were used to determine the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) for the diagnosis of CD4 count <200 cells/mm 3 among 100 participants fulfilling criteria for WHO clinical stage 2 and 3. RESULTS: A strong correlation was observed between TLC and CD4 (r = 0.73, p<0.0001). For all clinical syndromes, except pulmonary tuberculosis, the positive predictive values (PPV) for a CD4 count <200 cells/mm 3 were high (>80%) but the negative predictive values (NPV) were low. Using the WHO recommended TLC cut-off of 1200 cells/mm 3 to diagnose a CD4 less than 200 cells/mm 3 , the PPV was 100%, and the NPV was 32%. CONCLUSION: Our data showed a good correlation between TLC and CD4 cell count. However, the WHO recommended TLC cut-off of 1200 did not identify the majority of WHO stage 2 and 3 patients with CD4 counts less than 200 cells/mm 3 . A more rational use of TLC counts is to treat all patients with WHO stage 2 and 3 who have a TLC <1200 and to limit CD4 counts to patients who are symptomatic but have TLC of >1200.