Comparison between urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and urine protein dipstick testing for prevalence and ability to predict the risk for chronic kidney disease in the general population (Iwate-KENCO study): a prospective community-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: This study compared the combination of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) vs. eGFR and urine protein reagent strip testing to determine chronic kidney disease (CKD) prevalence, and each method's ability to predict the risk for cardiovascular events in the general Japanese population. METHODS: Baseline data including eGFR, UACR, and urine dipstick tests were obtained from the general population (n = 22 975). Dipstick test results (negative, trace, positive) were allocated to three levels of UACR (<30, 30-300, >300), respectively. In accordance with Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes CKD prognosis heat mapping, the cohort was classified into four risk grades (green: grade 1; yellow: grade 2; orange: grade 3, red: grade 4) based on baseline eGFR and UACR levels or dipstick tests. RESULTS: During the mean follow-up period of 5.6 years, 708 new onset cardiovascular events were recorded. For CKD identified by eGFR and dipstick testing (dipstick test ≥ trace and eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)), the incidence of CKD was found to be 9 % in the general population. In comparison to non-CKD (grade 1), although cardiovascular risk was significantly higher in risk grades ≥3 (relative risk (RR) = 1.70; 95 % CI: 1.28-2.26), risk predictive ability was not significant in risk grade 2 (RR = 1.20; 95 % CI: 0.95-1.52). When CKD was defined by eGFR and UACR (UACR ≥30 mg/g Cr and eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)), prevalence was found to be 29 %. Predictive ability in risk grade 2 (RR = 1.41; 95 % CI: 1.19-1.66) and risk grade ≥3 (RR = 1.76; 95 % CI: 1.37-2.28) were both significantly greater than for non-CKD. Reclassification analysis showed a significant improvement in risk predictive abilities when CKD risk grading was based on UACR rather than on dipstick testing in this population (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Although prevalence of CKD was higher when detected by UACR rather than urine dipstick testing, the predictive ability for cardiovascular events from UACR-based risk grading was superior to that of dipstick-based risk grading in the general population.

Comparison of predictability of future cardiovascular events between chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage based on CKD epidemiology collaboration equation and that based on modification of diet in renal disease equation in the Japanese general population--Iwate KENCO Study.

BACKGROUND: Whether estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) calculated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) Study equation (eGFRCKDEPI) improves risk prediction compared to that calculated using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) study equation (eGFRMDRD) has not been examined in a prospective study in Japanese people. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants (n=24,560) were divided into 4 stages (1, ≥90; 2, 60-89 (reference); 3a, 45-59; 3b+ <45 ml·min(-1)·1.73 m(-2)) according to eGFRCKDEPI or eGFRMDRD. Endpoints were all-cause death, myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (95% confidence intervals) for predicting all-cause death, MI and stroke by eGFRCKDEPI vs. eGFRMDRD were 0.680 (0.662-0.697) vs. 0.582 (0.562-0.602); 0.718 (0.665-0.771) vs. 0.642 (0.581-0.703); and 0.656 (0.636-0.676) vs. 0.576 (0.553-0.599), respectively. Multivariate-adjusted Cox regression and Poisson regression analysis results were similar for adjusted incidence rates and adjusted hazard ratios in each corresponding stage between the 2 models and no differences were found in model assessment parameters. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) for predicting all-cause death, MI and stroke were estimated to be 6.7% (P<0.001), -1.89% (P=0.029) and -0.20% (P=0.421), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Better discrimination was achieved using eGFRCKDEPI than eGFRMDRD on univariate analysis. NRI analysis indicated that the use of eGFRCKDEPI instead of eGFRMDRD offered a significant improvement in reclassification of death risk.

Serum C-reactive protein levels and death and cardiovascular events in mild to moderate chronic kidney disease.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease. Elevated circulating levels of high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) have been suggested to be associated with high risk of CV disease. It is uncertain whether the CV risk in CKD can be stratified by hsCRP levels in the Japanese population. Baseline data including serum hsCRP and creatinine levels were determined in the general population. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated using a modified MDRD equation, and CKD was defined as eGFR below 60 mL/minute/1.73m(2). We analyzed 1,074 male subjects with mild to moderate CKD (mean age, 70.4 years). CV events (stroke and myocardial infarction) and all-cause death were surveyed prospectively. The CKD subjects were followed for 5.1 years, and 72 CV events and 115 all-cause deaths were found (composite endpoint). After adjustment for established CV risk factors, hazard ratios (HRs) for the endpoint were significantly increased according to the hsCRP quintile (P < 0.001), and HR for the highest (versus the lowest) quintile was 2.77 (95% CI; 1.61-4.77). These results suggest that serum hsCRP measurement is a useful tool for the risk stratification of CV events and death in CKD male subjects selected from the general population.

Predictive value of lipoprotein indices for residual risk of acute myocardial infarction and sudden death in men with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels <120 mg/dl.

Several epidemiologic studies have demonstrated that plasma low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) profile is a key risk indicator for coronary heart disease (CHD). However, almost half of all patients with CHD have normal LDL-C levels. A total of 7,931 male subjects aged ≥40 years from the general population with no cardiovascular history and no use of lipid-lowering agents were followed for incidence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and sudden death. Of the 4,827 participants with LDL-C levels <120 mg/dl, 55 subjects had a first AMI/sudden death during an average of 5.5 years of follow-up. After adjustment for confounding factors, multiadjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were increased by 1 SD for non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C; HR = 1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02 to 1.81), total cholesterol (TC)/HDL-C ratio (HR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.11 to 1.78) and LDL-C/HDL-C ratio (HR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.73) but not for LDL-C (HR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.82 to 1.44) and HDL-C (HR = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.68 to 1.04). When stratified as categorical variables on the basis of points with highest accuracy on receiver operating characteristic analysis, non-HDL-C levels >126 mg/dl (HR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.51), TC/HDL-C ratio above 3.5 (HR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.48) and LDL-C/HDL-C ratio >1.9 (HR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.51) had increased multiadjusted HRs for AMI/sudden death. In conclusion, in men with LDL-C levels <120 mg/dl, non HDL-C, TC/HDL-C, and LDL-C/HDL-C ratios have predictive value for residual risk of AMI/sudden death.