Outpatient management of urinary tract infections by medical officers in Nairobi, Kenya: lack of benefit from audit and feedback on adherence to treatment guidelines.

INTRODUCTION: Acute uncomplicated urinary tract infections are common in outpatient settings but are not treated optimally. Few studies of the outpatient use of antibiotics for specific diagnoses have been done in sub-Saharan Africa, so little is known about the prescribing patterns of medical officers in the region. METHODS: Aga Khan University has 16 outpatient clinics throughout the Nairobi metro area with a medical officer specifically assigned to that clinic. A baseline assessment of evaluation and treatment of suspected UTI was performed from medical records in these clinics. Then the medical officer from each of the 16 clinics was recruited from each clinic was recruited with eight each randomized to control vs. feedback groups. Both groups were given a multimodal educational session including locally adapted UTI guidelines and emphasis on problems identified in the baseline assessment Each record was scored using a scoring system that was developed for the study according to adequacy of history, physical examination, clinical diagnosis matching recorded data, diagnostic workup and treatment. Three audits were done for both groups; baseline (audit 1), post-CME (audit 2), and a final audit, which was after feedback for the feedback group (audit 3). The primary analysis assessed overall guideline adherence in the feedback group versus the CME only group. RESULTS: The overall scores in both groups showed significant improvement after the CME in comparison to baseline and for each group, the scores in most domains also improved. However, audit 3 showed persistence of the gains attained after the CME but no additional benefit from the feedback. Some deficiencies that persisted throughout the study included lack of workup of possible STI and excess use of non-UTI laboratory tests such as CBC, stool culture and H. pylori Ag. After the CME, the use of nitrofurantoin rose from only 4% to 8% and cephalosporin use increased from 49 to 67%, accompanied by a drop in quinolone use. CONCLUSION: The CME led to modest improvements in patient care in the categories of history taking, treatment and investigations, but feedback had no additional effect. Future studies should consider an enforcement element or a more intensive feedback approach.

Trends and factors associated with declining lifetime fertility among married women in Kenya between 2003 and 2014: an analysis of Kenya demographic health surveys.

BACKGROUND: Globally, fertility has declined in the last three decades. In sub-Saharan Africa Including Kenya, this decline started more recent and at a slower pace compared to other regions. Despite a significant fertility decline in Kenya, there are disparities in intra- and interregional fertility. Reduction in lifetime fertility has health benefits for both the mother and child, thus it is important to improve women and children health outcomes associated with high fertility. The study, therefore evaluated the factors associate with change in lifetime fertility among married women of reproductive age in Kenya between 2003 and 2014. METHODS: The study used the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) datasets of 2003, 2008 and 2014. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to calculate the mean number of children ever born and to assess the change in fertility across different factors. Poisson regression model with robust standard errors was used to study the relationship between number of children ever born (lifetime fertility) and independent variables. A Poisson-based multivariate decomposition for the nonlinear response model was performed to identify and quantify the contribution of demographic, socioeconomic and reproductive correlates, to the change in lifetime fertility between 2003 and 2014. RESULTS: The study included 3,917, 4,002, and 7,332 weighted samples of women of reproductive age in 2003, 2008, and 2014, respectively. The mean number of children born declined from 3.8 (95% CI: 3.6-3.9) in 2003 to 3.5 (95% CI: 3.4--3.7) in 2008 and 3.4 (95% CI: 3.3-3.4) in 2014 (p = 0.001). The expected number of children reduced with the age at first sexual intercourse, the age at first marriage across the survey years, and household wealth index. Women who had lost one or more children in the past were likely to have increased number of children. The changes in the effects of women's characteristics between the surveys explained 96.4% of the decline. The main contributors to the change in lifetime fertility was the different in women level of education. CONCLUSION: The lifetime fertility declined by one-tenth between 2003 and 2014; majorly as a result of the effects of characteristics of women in terms of level of education. These highlights a need to implement education policies that promotes women education focuses on gender equality and women empowerment. Continuous strengthening of the healthcare systems (access to quality antenatal care, skilled delivery, and postpartum care) to reduce child mortality is essential.

Using social practice theory in measuring perceived stigma among female sex workers in Mombasa, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Perceived stigma is a complex societal phenomenon that is harboured especially by female sex workers because of the interplay of a myriad of factors. As such, a precise measure of the contribution of different social practices and characteristics is necessary for both understanding and intervening in matters related to perceived stigma. We developed a Perceived Stigma Index that measures the factors that greatly contribute to the stigma among sex workers in Kenya, and thereby inform a framework for future interventions. METHODS: Social Practice Theory was adopted in the development of the Perceived Stigma Index in which three social domains were extracted from data collected in the WHISPER or SHOUT study conducted among female sex workers (FSW), aged 16-35 years in Mombasa, Kenya. The three domains included: Social demographics, Relationship Control and Sexual and Gender-based Violence, and Society awareness of sexual and reproductive history. The factor assessment entailed Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA), and the internal consistency of the index was measured using Cronbach's alpha coefficient. RESULTS: We developed a perceived stigma index to measure perceived stigma among 882 FSWs with a median age of 26 years. A Cronbach's alpha coefficient of 0.86 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.85-0.88) was obtained as a measure of the internal consistency of our index using the Social Practice Theory. In regression analysis, we identified three major factors that contribute to the perceived stigma and consists of : (i) income and family support (ß = 1.69; 95% CI); (ii) society's awareness of the sex workers' sexual and reproductive history (ß = 3.54; 95% CI); and (iii) different forms of relationship control e.g. physical abuse (ß = 1.48; 95%CI that propagate the perceived stigma among the FSWs. CONCLUSION: Social practice theory has solid properties that support and capture the multi-dimensional nature of perceived stigma. The findings support the fact that social practices contribute or provoke this fear of being discriminated against. Thus, in offering interventions to curb perceived stigma, focus should fall on the education of the society on the importance of acceptance and integration of the FSWs as part of the society and the eradication of sexual and gender based violence meted out on them. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered in the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12616000852459.

Health facilities preparedness to deliver maternal and newborn health care in Kilifi and Kisii Counties, Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: Health facility preparedness is essential for delivering quality maternal and newborn care, minimizing morbidity and mortality by addressing delays in seeking skilled care, reaching appropriate facilities, and receiving emergency care. A rapid assessment of 23 government health facilities in Kilifi and Kisii counties identified poor maternal and newborn indicators in 16 facilities. The Access to Quality Care through Extending and Strengthening Health Systems (AQCESS) project supported these facilities with training, equipment, and referral linkages. This study focuses on facility preparedness of the 16 facilities to deliver maternal and newborn health services, specifically delays two and three at the end of the project implementation. METHODS: A descriptive cross-sectional study was carried-out on behalf of AQCESS project team by respective county ministry of health in-charge of reproductive maternal newborn and child health programs and trained nurses and medical doctors from Aga Khan health services in December 2019. The study evaluated the accessibility and reliability of drugs, commodities, equipment, personnel, basic necessities (such as water and electricity), and guidelines using validated World Health Organization service availability and readiness assessment tool. The findings of the assessment are presented through frequency and percentage analysis, along with a comparative analysis between the two counties. RESULTS: All the 16 facilities assessed offered routine antenatal care (ANC) and normal delivery, but only two provided comprehensive emergency obstetric and newborn care (CEmONC). Most essential medicines, commodities, and required equipment were available. BEmONC and CEmONC guidelines were present in Kilifi, not in Kisii. One staff member was available 24/7 for cesarean section (CS) in each county, with one anesthetist in Kilifi. Electricity was accessible in all facilities, but only half had secondary power supply. Facilities offering CS had backup generators. CONCLUSION: The Facilities assessed had necessary drugs, commodities, equipment, and requirements, but staffing and guidelines were limited. Kilifi outperformed Kisii in most indicators. Additional support is needed for infrastructure and human resources to deliver quality maternal and newborn health services. Continuous monitoring will facilitate resource allocation based on facility needs.

Pentavalent vaccination in Kenya: coverage and geographical accessibility to health facilities using data from a community demographic and health surveillance system in Kilifi County.

BACKGROUND: There is substantial evidence that immunization is one of the most significant and cost-effective pillars of preventive and promotive health interventions. Effective childhood immunization coverage is thus essential in stemming persistent childhood illnesses. The third dose of pentavalent vaccine for children is an important indicator for assessing performance of the immunisation programme because it mirrors the completeness of a child's immunisation schedule. Spatial access to an immunizing health facility, especially in sub-Sahara African (SSA) countries, is a significant determinant of Pentavalent 3 vaccination coverage, as the vaccine is mainly administered during routine immunisation schedules at health facilities. Rural areas and densely populated informal settlements are most affected by poor access to healthcare services. We therefore sought to determine vaccination coverage of Pentavalent 3, estimate the travel time to health facilities offering immunisation services, and explore its effect on immunisation coverage in one of the predominantly rural counties on the coast of Kenya. METHODS: We used longitudinal survey data from the health demographic surveillance system implemented in Kaloleni and Rabai Sub-counties in Kenya. To compute the geographical accessibility, we used coordinates of health facilities offering immunisation services, information on land cover, digital elevation models, and road networks of the study area. We then fitted a hierarchical Bayesian multivariable model to explore the effect of travel time on pentavalent vaccine coverage adjusting for confounding factors identified a priori. RESULTS: Overall coverage of pentavalent vaccine was at 77.3%. The median travel time to a health facility was 41 min (IQR = 18-65) and a total of 1266 (28.5%) children lived more than one-hour of travel-time to a health facility. Geographical access to health facilities significantly affected pentavalent vaccination coverage, with travel times of more than one hour being significantly associated with reduced odds of vaccination (AOR = 0.84 (95% CI 0.74 - 0.94). CONCLUSION: Increased travel time significantly affects immunization in this rural community. Improving road networks, establishing new health centres and/or stepping up health outreach activities that include vaccinations in hard-to-reach areas within the county could improve immunisation coverage. These data may be useful in guiding the local department of health on appropriate location of planned immunization centres.

Exploring the impact of health worker strikes on maternal and child health in a Kenyan county.

BACKGROUND: Studies of the impact of health care workers' strikes tend to look at facility-level activity rather than populations, with evidence from low and middle-income countries relatively sparse. This study explored the effect of national strikes on maternal and child health. It looked at the impact on health system activity in both public and non-public sectors (e.g. private, faith-based), on health promotion investments like immunisation, and on disease detection like post-partum haemorrhage (PPH). A 100 day doctors' strike started in December 2016, a 150 day nurses strike from June 2017 and then the clinical officers for 21 days that September. METHODS: Time series descriptive analysis of attendance data from the Kenyan Health Management Information System (public, non-public sector facilities). The setting was Kilifi, a coastal county in Kenya with a population of about 1.5 million. RESULTS: Along the care pathway from antenatal, postnatal and out-patient child health clinics, activity levels dropped markedly in the public sector with only partial compensatory increases in non-public sector activity. The number of fully immunised children fell during the nurses strike as did women seen with PPH during all strikes. These health care strikes caused significant adverse health impacts at the time and potentially inter-generationally as exemplified by the fall in antenatal haematinics supplementation and syphilis testing. Some post-strike ''catch-up" activity occurred, however this may have been too late in some instances. CONCLUSIONS: Policy-makers at national and county level need to ensure population health is protected at times of strikes and ideally resolve disputes without such action. Not to do so risks major negative effects on maternal and child health. Increased use of the non-public health sector could be done by the authorities in mitigation should strikes occur again.

Translation and validation of Training Needs Analysis Questionnaire among reproductive, maternal and newborn health workers in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Continuous professional development (CPD) has been reported to enhance healthcare workers' knowledge and skills, improve retention and recruitment, improve the quality of patient care, and reduce patient mortality. Therefore, validated training needs assessment tools are important to facilitate the design of effective CPD programs. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted using self-administered questionnaires. Participants were healthcare workers in reproductive, maternal, and neonatal health (RMNH) from seven hospitals, 12 health centers, and 17 dispensaries in eight districts of Mwanza Region, Tanzania. The training needs analysis (TNA) tool that was used for data collection was adapted and translated into Kiswahili from English version of the Hennessy-Hicks' Training Need Analysis Questionnaire (TNAQ). RESULTS: In total, 153 healthcare workers participated in this study. Most participants were female 83 % (n = 127), and 76 % (n = 115) were nurses. The average age was 39 years, and the mean duration working in RMNH was 7.9 years. The reliability of the adapted TNAQ was 0.954. Assessment of construct validity indicated that the comparative fit index was equal to 1. CONCLUSIONS: The adapted TNAQ appears to be reliable and valid for identifying professional training needs among healthcare workers in RMNH settings in Mwanza Region, Tanzania. Further studies with larger sample sizes are needed to test the use of the TNAQ in broader healthcare systems and settings.

Birth preparedness and complication readiness among women of reproductive age in Kenya and Tanzania: a community-based cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Delayed health-seeking continues to contribute to preventable maternal and neonatal deaths in low resource countries. Some of the strategies to avoid the delay include early preparation for the birth and detection of danger signs. We aimed to assess the level of practice and factors associated with birth preparedness and complication readiness (BPCR) in Kenya and Tanzania. METHODS: We conducted community-based multi-stage cross-sectional surveys in Kilifi and Kisii counties in Kenya and Mwanza region in Tanzania and included women who delivered two years preceding the survey (2016-2017). A woman who mentioned at least three out of five BPCR components was considered well-prepared. Bivariate and multivariable proportional odds model were used to determine the factors associated with the BPCR. The STROBE guidelines for cross-sectional studies informed the design and reporting of this study. RESULTS: Only 11.4% (59/519) and 7.6% (31/409) of women were well-prepared for birth and its complications in Kenya and Tanzania, respectively, while 39.7 and 30.6% were unprepared, respectively. Level of education (primary: adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.59, 95% CI: 1.14-2.20, secondary: aOR: 2.24, 95% CI: 1.39-3.59), delivery within health facility (aOR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.15-2.29), good knowledge of danger signs during pregnancy (aOR: 1.28, 95% CI: 0.80-2.04), labour and childbirth (aOR: 1.57, 95% CI: 0.93-2.67), postpartum (aOR: 2.69, 95% CI: 1.24-5.79), and antenatal care were associated with BPCR (aOR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.13-1.78). CONCLUSION: Overall, most pregnant women were not prepared for birth and its complications in Kilifi, Kisii and Mwanza region. Improving level of education, creating awareness on danger signs during preconception, pregnancy, childbirth, and postpartum period, and encouraging antenatal care and skilled birth care among women and their male partners/families are recommended strategies to promote BPCR practices and contribute to improved pregnancy outcomes in women and newborns.

Maternal healthcare services use in Mwanza Region, Tanzania: a cross-sectional baseline survey.

BACKGROUND: Improving maternal health by reducing maternal mortality/morbidity relates to Goal 3 of the Sustainable Development Goals. Achieving this goal is supported by antenatal care (ANC), health facility delivery, and postpartum care. This study aimed to understand levels of use and correlates of uptake of maternal healthcare services among women of reproductive age (15-49 years) in Mwanza Region, Tanzania. METHODS: A cross-sectional multi-stage sampling household survey was conducted to obtain data from 1476 households in six districts of Mwanza Region. Data for the 409 women who delivered in the 2 years before the survey were analyzed for three outcomes: four or more ANC visits (ANC4+), health facility delivery, and postpartum visits. Factors associated with the three outcomes were determined using generalized estimating equations to account for clustering at the district level while adjusting for all variables. RESULTS: Of the 409 eligible women, 58.2% attended ANC4+, 76.8% delivered in a health facility, and 43.5% attended a postpartum clinic. Women from peri-urban, island, and rural regions were less likely to have completed ANC4+ or health facility delivery compared with urban women. Education and early first antenatal visit were associated with ANC4+ and health facility delivery. Mothers from peri-urban areas and those who with health facility delivery were more likely to attend postpartum check-ups. CONCLUSION: Use of ANC services in early pregnancy influences the number of ANC visits, leading to higher uptake of ANC4+ and health facility delivery. Postpartum check-ups for mothers and newborns are associated with health facility delivery. Encouraging early initiation of ANC visits may increase the uptake of maternal healthcare services.

Association between psychosis and substance use in Kenya. Findings from the NeuroGAP-Psychosis study.

Background: Substance use is prevalent among people with mental health issues, and patients with psychosis are more likely to use and misuse substances than the general population. Despite extensive research on substance abuse among the general public in Kenya, there is a scarcity of data comparing substance use among people with and without psychosis. This study investigates the association between psychosis and various substances in Kenya. Methods: This study utilized data from the Neuro-GAP Psychosis Case-Control Study between April 2018 and December 2022. The KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme recruited participants from various sites in Kenya, including Kilifi County, Malindi Sub-County, Port Reitz and Coast General Provincial Hospitals, and Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital, as well as affiliated sites in Webuye, Kapenguria, Kitale, Kapsabet, and Iten Kakamega. The collected data included sociodemographic information, substance use, and clinical diagnosis. We used the summary measures of frequency (percentages) and median (interquartile range) to describe the categorical and continuous data, respectively. We examined the association between categorical variables related to psychosis using the chi-square test. Logistic regression models were used to assess the factors associated with the odds of substance use, considering all relevant sociodemographic variables. Results: We assessed a total of 4,415 cases and 3,940 controls. Except for alcohol consumption (p-value=0.41), all forms of substance use showed statistically significant differences between the case and control groups. Cases had 16% higher odds of using any substance than controls (aOR: 1.16, 95%CI: 1.05-1.28, p=0.005). Moreover, males were 3.95 times more likely to use any substance than females (aOR:3.95; 95%CI: 3.43-4.56). All the categories of living arrangements were protective against substance use. Conclusion: The findings of this study suggest that psychotic illnesses are associated with an increased likelihood of using various substances. These findings are consistent with those of previous studies; however, it is crucial to investigate further the potential for reverse causality between psychosis and substance abuse using genetically informed methods.

Factors associated with tuberculosis drug resistance among presumptive multidrug resistance tuberculosis patients identified in a DRTB surveillance study in western Kenya.

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is caused by M. tuberculosis (Mtb) with resistance to the first-line anti-TB medicines isoniazid (INH) and rifampicin (RIF). In Western Kenya, there is reported low prevalence of drug resistant strains among HIV tuberculosis patients, creating a need to determine factors associated with drug resistance patterns among presumptive MDR-TB patients. To determine factors associated with drug resistance patterns among presumptive MDR-TB patients in western Kenya. Three hundred and ninety (3 9 0) sputum sample isolates from among presumptive multidrug TB patients, were analyzed for TB drug resistance as per Ministry of Health (MoH) TB program diagnostic algorithm. Frequency and percentages were used to summarize categorical data while median and interquartile range (IQR) were used for continuous data. Multivariable logistic regression was carried out to identify factors associated with TB drug resistance. Out of 390 participants enrolled, 302/390 (77.4 %) were males, with a median age of 34 years. The HIV-infected were 118/390 (30.3 %). Samples included 322 (82.6 %) from presumptive patients, while 68/390 (17.4 %) were either lost to follow-up patients, failures to first-line treatment or newly diagnosed cases. A total of 64/390 (16.4 %) of the isolates had at least some form of drug resistance. Out of 390, 14/390 (3.6 %) had MDR, 12 (3.1 %) were RIF mono-resistance, 34 (8.7 %) had INH, while 4 (1 %) had ethambutol resistance. The category of previously treated patients (those who received or are currently on TB treatment) had a 70 % reduced likelihood of resistance (aOR: 0.30; 95 % CI: 0.13-0.70). In contrast, older age was associated with an increased likelihood of resistance to INH and RIF, with an adjusted odds ratio of 1.04 per year (95 % CI: 1.00-1.08). Prompt MDR-TB diagnosis is essential for appropriate patient care, management, and disease prevention and control. We recommend active surveillance on drug resistant TB in these regions to detect drug resistance patterns for rapid disease management.

Development of the paediatric society of the African league against rheumatism (PAFLAR) JIA registry and clinical profile of JIA in Africa from the PAFLAR JIA registry.

BACKGROUND: The spectrum of Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (JIA) in Africa is still largely unknown. We thus set out to illustrate how we set up the PAFLAR JIA registry and describe the clinical profile of Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis across various regions in Africa. METHODS: We carried out a retrospective observational cohort study where collaborators were trained on use of the existing PAFLAR REDCAP database to enter data for the JIA patients currently under their care capturing their epidemiological data, clinical features, laboratory investigations, diagnosis and therapy at initial diagnosis. Descriptive statistics including means, standard deviations, medians, interquartile ranges (IQR) for continuous variables and proportions for categorical variables were calculated as appropriate. Tests for difference between groups were performed between categorical variables using Pearson's chi-square or Fisher's exact tests. All analyses were performed using SPSS version 22 software. RESULTS: We enrolled 302 patients, 58.6% (177 of 302) of whom were female. The median age of disease onset was 7 years (range 3-11 years) and the median age at diagnosis was 8.5 years (range 5-12 years). The median duration delay in diagnosis was 6 months (range 1-20.8 months). The JIA categories included Systemic JIA 18.9% (57), Oligoarticular JIA 19.2% (83), Polyarticular RF + ve 5% (15), Polyarticular RF-ve 17.9% (54), Enthesitis Related Arthritis (ERA) 18.2% (55), Psoriatic Arthritis 7% (21) and undifferentiated JIA 5.6% (17). As regards treatment the commonest therapies were NSAID therapy at 31.1%, synthetic DMARDs at 18.1%, synthetic DMARDs combined with NSAIDs at 17.5% and steroid therapy at 9.6%. Biological DMARDs accounted for 2.3% of therapies offered to our patients at diagnosis. The average JADAS score was 10.3 (range 4.8-18.2) and the average CHAQ score was 1.3 (range 0.7-2.0). CONCLUSION: Our study highlights strategies involved in setting up a Pan-African paediatric rheumatology registry that embraces our broad diversity and the vast spectrum of JIA in Africa while comparing the various therapies available to our patients. The PAFLAR JIA registry strives to ensure a comprehensive representation of the diverse healthcare landscapes within the continent. Further longitudinal observation studies are required to ascertain the long-term outcomes of our patients and ultimately help inform policy to create a more favorable health ecosystem to support the healthcare needs of JIA patients in Africa.

Elective reconstruction of the ascending aorta for aneurysmal disease restores normal life expectancy. An analysis of risk factors for early and late mortality.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated the survival of patients who had undergone elective reconstruction of the ascending aorta for degenerative aneurysms. The long-term survival was compared to an age- and sex-matched case-control population. An analysis of risk factors, influencing survival was made. METHODS AND RESULTS: From May 1998 to January 2012, 72 patients underwent elective reconstruction of the ascending aorta for degenerative disease at the department of Cardiothoracic Surgery of the Jessa Hospital, Hasselt, Belgium. Sixty patients were treated with Bentall procedures, whereas 12 received valve-sparing procedures. The average age of the patient group was 65.5 years (range 24-80), with 64% males. Thirty-day mortality was 9.7% (consistent with calculated Euroscore II: 9.2%). The long-term survival was 80.9% at 3, 5 and 10 years. No deaths occurred between 3 and 10 years postoperatively. In an age- and sex case-matched Belgian population, 3-, 5- and 10-year survival were 95.7%, 94.7% and 85.2%, respectively. Long-term survival was not significantly different between both groups. Poor NYHA class at the time of surgery (P = 0.041) and COPD (P = 0.028) had a significant impact on global survival. Valve-sparing operations provide similar long-term survival, avoiding thrombo-embolic complications. CONCLUSIONS: Reconstruction of the ascending aorta for degenerative aneurysmal disease restores normal life expectancy, compared with an age- and sex-matched case-control population. Early mortality is consistent with the Euroscore II risk calculation. Whereas late survival progressively declines in the average population, it remains constant in the treated group after 3 years. COPD and poor functional class significantly impair survival. Valve-sparing procedures confer a similar long-term survival as valve replacement.

The incidence and modifiable risk factors for necrotizing enterocolitis in preterm infants: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the incidence and modifiable risk factors for Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) in preterm infants born at ≤32 weeks of gestation weighing <1500 grams, at a private tertiary care hospital in Kenya. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was conducted at the Aga Khan University Hospital Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU). Preterm infants born at ≤ 32 weeks' gestation and weighing <1500 grams admitted to NICU between 2009 and 2019, were recruited into the study. The primary outcome was NEC Bell Stage IIa-IIIb based on Modified Bell's criteria. Maternal and neonatal characteristics were evaluated. The association between variables of interest and NEC was determined using logistic regression analysis and the incidence of NEC for the study period was calculated. RESULTS: A total of 261 charts of infants born at ≤ 32 weeks' gestation, weighing <1500 were reviewed, and 200 charts met the inclusion criteria. Fifteen preterm infants developed the primary outcome of interest: NEC Stage ≥2a within the first 30 days of admission. The overall incidence of NEC for the study period was 7.5%. Three risk factors were identified as significantly associated with NEC on multivariate logistic regression analysis: antenatal exposure to steroids (OR = 0.056 CI = 0.003-0.964 p = 0.047), cumulative duration of exposure to invasive mechanical ventilation (OR = 2.172 CI = 1.242-3.799 p = 0.007) and cumulative duration of exposure to umbilical vein catheter (OR = 1.344 CI = 1.08-1.672 p = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: The overall incidence for the study period of NEC Stage ≥ II a was 7.5%. Exposure to antenatal steroids, duration of mechanical ventilation, and duration of umbilical vein catheterization were three independent modifiable risk factors for NEC Stage II a-Stage III b.

Comparison of logistic regression with regularized machine learning methods for the prediction of tuberculosis disease in people living with HIV: cross-sectional hospital-based study in Kisumu County, Kenya.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health concern, particularly among people living with the Human immunodeficiency Virus (PLWH). Accurate prediction of TB disease in this population is crucial for early diagnosis and effective treatment. Logistic regression and regularized machine learning methods have been used to predict TB, but their comparative performance in HIV patients remains unclear. The study aims to compare the predictive performance of logistic regression with that of regularized machine learning methods for TB disease in HIV patients. Methods: Retrospective analysis of data from HIV patients diagnosed with TB in three hospitals in Kisumu County (JOOTRH, Kisumu sub-county hospital, Lumumba health center) between [dates]. Logistic regression, Lasso, Ridge, Elastic net regression were used to develop predictive models for TB disease. Model performance was evaluated using accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). Results: Of the 927 PLWH included in the study, 107 (12.6%) were diagnosed with TB. Being in WHO disease stage III/IV (aOR: 7.13; 95%CI: 3.86-13.33) and having a cough in the last 4 weeks (aOR: 2.34;95%CI: 1.43-3.89) were significant associated with the TB. Logistic regression achieved accuracy of 0.868, and AUC-ROC of 0.744. Elastic net regression also showed good predictive performance with accuracy, and AUC-ROC values of 0.874 and 0.762, respectively. Conclusions: Our results suggest that logistic regression, Lasso, Ridge regression, and Elastic net can all be effective methods for predicting TB disease in HIV patients. These findings may have important implications for the development of accurate and reliable models for TB prediction in HIV patients.

Magnitude, Distribution and Contextual Risk Enhancing Predictors of High 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk Among Diabetic Patients in Tanzania.

Introduction: Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. In Diabetics, ASCVD is associated with poor prognosis and a higher case fatality rate compared with the general population. Sub-Saharan Africa is facing an epidemiological transition with ASCVD being prevalent among young adults. To date, over 20 million people have been living with DM in Africa, Tanzania being one of the five countries in the continent reported to have a higher prevalence. This study aimed to identify an individual's 10-year ASCVD absolute risk among a diabetic cohort in Tanzania and define contextual risk enhancing factors. Methods: A prospective observational study was conducted at the Aga Khan hospital, Mwanza, for a period of 8 months. The hospital is a 42-bed district-level hospital in Tanzania. Individuals 10-year risk was calculated based on the ASCVD 2013 risk calculator by ACC/AHA. Pearson's chi-square or Fischer's exact test was used to compare categorical and continuous variables. Multivariable analysis was applied to determine contextual factors for those who had a high 10-year risk of developing ASCVD. Results: The overall cohort included 573 patients. Majority of the individuals were found to be hypertensive (n = 371, 64.7%) and obese (n = 331, 58%) having a high 10-year absolute risk (n = 343, 60%) of suffering ASCVD. The study identified duration of Diabetes Mellitus (>10 years) (OR 8.15, 95% CI 5.25-14.42), concomitant hypertension (OR 1.82 95% CI 1.06-3.06), Diabetic Dyslipidemia (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.08-1.92) and deranged serum creatinine (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.03) to be the risk enhancing factors amongst our population. Conclusion: The study confirms the majority of diabetic individuals in the lake region of Tanzania to have a high 10-year ASCVD risk. The high prevalence of obesity, hypertension and dyslipidemia augments ASCVD risk but provides interventional targets for health-care workers to decrease these alarming projections.

Use of Mobile Technology to Identify Behavioral Mechanisms Linked to Mental Health Outcomes in Kenya: Protocol for Development and Validation of a Predictive Model.

Objective: This study proposes to identify and validate weighted sensor stream signatures that predict near-term risk of a major depressive episode and future mood among healthcare workers in Kenya. Approach: The study will deploy a mobile app platform and use novel data science analytic approaches (Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning) to identifying predictors of mental health disorders among 500 randomly sampled healthcare workers from five healthcare facilities in Nairobi, Kenya. Expectation: This study will lay the basis for creating agile and scalable systems for rapid diagnostics that could inform precise interventions for mitigating depression and ensure a healthy, resilient healthcare workforce to develop sustainable economic growth in Kenya, East Africa, and ultimately neighboring countries in sub-Saharan Africa. This protocol paper provides an opportunity to share the planned study implementation methods and approaches. Conclusion : A mobile technology platform that is scalable and can be used to understand and improve mental health outcomes is of critical importance.

Use of mobile technology to identify behavioral mechanisms linked to mental health outcomes in Kenya: protocol for development and validation of a predictive model.

OBJECTIVE: This study proposes to identify and validate weighted sensor stream signatures that predict near-term risk of a major depressive episode and future mood among healthcare workers in Kenya. APPROACH: The study will deploy a mobile application (app) platform and use novel data science analytic approaches (Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning) to identifying predictors of mental health disorders among 500 randomly sampled healthcare workers from five healthcare facilities in Nairobi, Kenya. EXPECTATION: This study will lay the basis for creating agile and scalable systems for rapid diagnostics that could inform precise interventions for mitigating depression and ensure a healthy, resilient healthcare workforce to develop sustainable economic growth in Kenya, East Africa, and ultimately neighboring countries in sub-Saharan Africa. This protocol paper provides an opportunity to share the planned study implementation methods and approaches. CONCLUSION: A mobile technology platform that is scalable and can be used to understand and improve mental health outcomes is of critical importance.

COVID-19 vaccination refusal trends in Kenya over 2021.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination refusal exacerbates global COVID-19 vaccination inequities. No studies in East Africa have examined temporal trends in vaccination refusal, precluding addressing refusal. We assessed vaccine refusal over time in Kenya, and characterized factors associated with changes in vaccination refusal. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Kenya Rapid Response Phone Survey (RRPS), a household cohort survey representative of the Kenyan population including refugees. Vaccination refusal (defined as the respondent stating they would not receive the vaccine if offered to them at no cost) was measured in February and October 2021. Proportions of vaccination refusal were plotted over time. We analyzed factors in vaccination refusal using a weighted multivariable logistic regression including interactions for time. FINDINGS: Among 11,569 households, vaccination refusal in Kenya decreased from 24 % in February 2021 to 9 % in October 2021. Vaccination refusal was associated with having education beyond the primary level (-4.1[-0.7,-8.9] percentage point difference (ppd)); living with somebody who had symptoms of COVID-19 in the past 14 days (-13.72[-8.9,-18.6]ppd); having symptoms of COVID-19 in the past 14 days (11.0[5.1,16.9]ppd); and distrusting the government in responding to COVID-19 (14.7[7.1,22.4]ppd). There were significant interactions with time and: refugee status and geography, living with somebody with symptoms of COVID-19, having symptoms of COVID-19, and believing in misinformation. INTERPRETATION: The temporal reduction in vaccination refusal in Kenya likely represents substantial strides by the Kenyan vaccination program and possible learnt lessons which require examination. Going forward, there are still several groups which need specific targeting to decrease vaccination refusal and improve vaccination equity, including those with lower levels of education, those with recent COVID-19 symptoms, those who do not practice personal COVID-19 mitigation measures, refugees in urban settings, and those who do not trust the government. Policy and program should focus on decreasing vaccination refusal in these populations, and research focus on understanding barriers and motivators for vaccination.

The Pattern of Admission, Clinical Characteristics, and Outcomes Among Patients Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit of a Tertiary Hospital in Tanzania: A 5-Year Retrospective Review.

Introduction: Despite the implementation of complex interventions, ICU mortality remains high and more so in developing countries. The demand for critical care in Sub-Saharan Africa is more than ever before as the region experiences a double burden of rising rates of non-communicable diseases (NCD) in the background battle of combating infectious diseases. Limited studies in Tanzania have reported varying factors associated with markedly high rates of ICU mortality. Investigating the burden of ICU care remains crucial in providing insights into the effectiveness and challenges of critical care delivery. Material and Methods: A single-center retrospective study that reviewed records of all medically admitted patients admitted to the ICU of the Aga Khan Hospital, Dar-es-Salaam, from 1st October 2018 to 30th April 2023. To define the population in the study, we used descriptive statistics. Patients' outcomes were categorized based on ICU survival. Binary logistic regression was run (at 95% CI and p-value < 0.05) to identify the determinants for ICU mortality. Results: Medical records of 717 patients were reviewed. The cohort was male (n=472,65.8%) and African predominant (n=471,65.7%) with a median age of 58 years (IQR 45.0-71.0). 17.9% of patients did not survive. The highest mortality was noted amongst patients with septic shock (29.3%). The lowest survival was noted amongst patients requiring three organ support (n=12,2.1%). Advanced age (OR 1.02,CI 1.00-1.04), having more than three underlying comorbidities (OR 2.50,CI 1.96-6.60), use of inotropic support (OR 3.58,CI 1.89-6.80) and mechanical ventilation (OR 9.11,CI 4.72-18.11) showed association with increased risk for mortality in ICU. Conclusion: The study indicated a much lower ICU mortality rate compared to similar studies conducted in other parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. Advanced age, underlying multiple comorbidities and organ support were associated with ICU mortality. Large multi-center studies are needed to highlight the true burden of critical care illness in Tanzania.