Patterns of childhood body mass index (BMI), overweight and obesity in South Asian and black participants in the English National child measurement programme: effect of applying BMI adjustments standardising for ethnic differences in BMI-body fatness associations.

BACKGROUND: The National Child Measurement Programme (NCMP) records weight and height and assesses overweight-obesity patterns in English children using body mass index (BMI), which tends to underestimate body fatness in South Asian children and overestimate body fatness in Black children of presumed African ethnicity. Using BMI adjustments to ensure that adjusted BMI was similarly related to body fatness in South Asian, Black and White children, we reassessed population overweight and obesity patterns in these ethnic groups in NCMP. METHODS: Analyses were based on 2012-2013 NCMP data in 582 899 children aged 4-5 years and 485 362 children aged 10-11 years. Standard centile-based approaches defined weight status in each age group before and after applying BMI adjustments for English South Asian and Black children derived from previous studies using the deuterium dilution method. FINDINGS: Among White children, overweight-obesity prevalences (boys, girls) were 23% and 21%, respectively, in 4-5 year olds and 33% and 30%, respectively, in 10-11 year olds. Before adjustment, South Asian children had lower overweight-obesity prevalences at 4-5 years (19%, 19%) and slightly higher prevalences at 10-11 years (42%, 34%), whereas Black children had higher overweight-obesity prevalences both at 4-5 years (31%, 29%) and 10-11 years (42%, 45%). Following adjustment, overweight-obesity prevalences were markedly higher in South Asian children both at 4-5 years (39%, 35%) and at 10-11 years (52%, 44%), whereas Black children had lower prevalences at 4-5 years (11%, 12%); at 10-11 years, prevalences were slightly lower in boys (32%) but higher in girls (35%). INTERPRETATION: BMI adjustments revealed extremely high overweight-obesity prevalences among South Asian children in England, which were not apparent in unadjusted data. In contrast, after adjustment, Black children had lower overweight-obesity prevalences except among older girls. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, NIHR CLAHRC (South London), NIHR CLAHRC (North Thames).

Body mass index adjustments to increase the validity of body fatness assessment in UK Black African and South Asian children.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Body mass index (BMI) (weight per height2) is the most widely used marker of childhood obesity and total body fatness (BF). However, its validity is limited, especially in children of South Asian and Black African origins. We aimed to quantify BMI adjustments needed for UK children of Black African and South Asian origins so that adjusted BMI related to BF in the same way as for White European children. METHODS: We used data from four recent UK studies that made deuterium dilution BF measurements in UK children of White European, South Asian and Black African origins. A height-standardized fat mass index (FMI) was derived to represent BF. Linear regression models were then fitted, separately for boys and girls, to quantify ethnic differences in BMI-FMI relationships and to provide ethnic-specific BMI adjustments. RESULTS: We restricted analyses to 4-12 year olds, to whom a single consistent FMI (fat mass per height5) could be applied. BMI consistently underestimated BF in South Asians, requiring positive BMI adjustments of +1.12 kg m-2 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83, 1.41 kg m-2; P<0.0001) for boys and +1.07 kg m-2 (95% CI: 0.74, 1.39 kg m-2; P<0.0001) for girls of all age groups and FMI levels. BMI overestimated BF in Black Africans, requiring negative BMI adjustments for Black African children. However, these were complex because there were statistically significant interactions between Black African ethnicity and FMI (P=0.004 boys; P=0.003 girls) and also between FMI and age group (P<0.0001 for boys and girls). BMI adjustments therefore varied by age group and FMI level (and indirectly BMI); the largest adjustments were in younger children with higher unadjusted BMI and the smallest in older children with lower unadjusted BMI. CONCLUSIONS: BMI underestimated BF in South Asians and overestimated BF in Black Africans. Ethnic-specific adjustments, increasing BMI in South Asians and reducing BMI in Black Africans, can improve the accuracy of BF assessment in these children.

Fruit, vegetable and vitamin C intakes and plasma vitamin C: cross-sectional associations with insulin resistance and glycaemia in 9-10 year-old children.

AIM: To examine whether low circulating vitamin C concentrations and low fruit and vegetable intakes were associated with insulin resistance and other Type 2 diabetes risk markers in childhood. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional, school-based study in 2025 UK children aged 9-10 years, predominantly of white European, South-Asian and black African origin. A 24-h dietary recall was used to assess fruit, vegetable and vitamin C intakes. Height, weight and fat mass were measured and a fasting blood sample collected to measure plasma vitamin C concentrations and Type 2 diabetes risk markers. RESULTS: In analyses adjusting for confounding variables (including socio-economic status), a one interquartile range higher plasma vitamin C concentration (30.9 µmol/l) was associated with a 9.6% (95% CI 6.5, 12.6%) lower homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance value, 0.8% (95% CI 0.4, 1.2%) lower fasting glucose, 4.5% (95% CI 3.2, 5.9%) lower urate and 2.2% (95% CI 0.9, 3.4%) higher HDL cholesterol. HbA1c concentration was 0.6% (95% CI 0.2, 1.0%) higher. Dietary fruit, vegetable and total vitamin C intakes were not associated with any Type 2 diabetes risk markers. Lower plasma vitamin C concentrations in South-Asian and black African-Caribbean children could partly explain their higher insulin resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Lower plasma vitamin C concentrations are associated with insulin resistance and could partly explain ethnic differences in insulin resistance. Experimental studies are needed to establish whether increasing plasma vitamin C can help prevent Type 2 diabetes at an early stage.

Physical activity, obesity and cardiometabolic risk factors in 9- to 10-year-old UK children of white European, South Asian and black African-Caribbean origin: the Child Heart And health Study in England (CHASE).

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Physical inactivity is implicated in unfavourable patterns of obesity and cardiometabolic risk in childhood. However, few studies have quantified these associations using objective physical activity measurements in children from different ethnic groups. We examined these associations in UK children of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study of 2,049 primary school children in three UK cities, who had standardised anthropometric measurements, provided fasting blood samples and wore activity monitors for up to 7 days. Data were analysed using multilevel linear regression and allowing for measurement error. RESULTS: Overall physical activity levels showed strong inverse graded associations with adiposity markers (particularly sum of skinfold thicknesses), fasting insulin, HOMA insulin resistance, triacylglycerol and C-reactive protein; for an increase of 100 counts of physical activity per min of registered time, levels of these factors were 12.2% (95% CI 10.2-14.1%), 10.2% (95% CI 7.5-12.8%), 10.2% (95% CI 7.5-12.8%), 5.8% (95% CI 4.0-7.5%) and 19.2% (95% CI 13.9-24.2%) lower, respectively. Similar increments in physical activity levels were associated with lower diastolic blood pressure (1.0 mmHg, 95% CI 0.6-1.5 mmHg) and LDL-cholesterol (0.04 mmol/l, 95% CI 0.01-0.07 mmol/l), and higher HDL-cholesterol (0.02 mmol/l, 95% CI 0.01-0.04 mmol/l). Moreover, associations were broadly similar in strength in all ethnic groups. All associations between physical activity and cardiometabolic risk factors were reduced (albeit variably) after adjustment for adiposity. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Objectively measured physical activity correlates at least as well with obesity and cardiometabolic risk factors in South Asian and African-Caribbean children as in white European children, suggesting that efforts to increase activity levels in such groups would have equally beneficial effects.

Nutritional composition of the diets of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European children in the United Kingdom: the Child Heart and Health Study in England (CHASE).

In the UK, South Asian adults have increased risks of CHD, type 2 diabetes and central obesity. Black African-Caribbeans, in contrast, have increased risks of type 2 diabetes and general obesity but lower CHD risk. There is growing evidence that these risk differences emerge in early life and that nutritional factors may be important. We have therefore examined the variations in nutritional composition of the diets of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European children, using 24 h recalls of dietary intake collected during a cross-sectional survey of cardiovascular health in eighty-five primary schools in London, Birmingham and Leicester. In all, 2209 children aged 9-10 years took part, including 558 of South Asian, 560 of black African-Caribbean and 543 of white European ethnicity. Compared with white Europeans, South Asian children reported higher mean total energy intake; their intakes of total fat, polyunsaturated fat and protein (both absolute and as proportions of total energy intake) were higher and their intakes of carbohydrate as a proportion of energy (particularly sugars), vitamin C and D, Ca and haem Fe were lower. These differences were especially marked for Bangladeshi children. Black African-Caribbean children had lower intakes of total and saturated fat (both absolute and as proportions of energy intake), NSP, vitamin D and Ca. The lower total and saturated fat intakes were particularly marked among black African children. Appreciable ethnic differences exist in the nutritional composition of children's diets, which may contribute to future differences in chronic disease risk.

Is body mass index before middle age related to coronary heart disease risk in later life? Evidence from observational studies.

OBJECTIVE: Although obesity beginning early in life is becoming more common, its implications for coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in later life remain uncertain. We examined the relationship of body mass index (BMI) before 30 years of age to CHD risk in later life. DESIGN: Systematic review of published studies relating BMI between age 2 and 30 years to later CHD risk. Studies were identified using Medline (1950 onwards), Embase (1980 onwards) and Web of Science (1970 onwards) databases (to November 2007). MEASUREMENTS: Relative risks (RR) of CHD associated with a 1 standard deviation (s.d.) higher BMI (most based on a narrow age range at measurement) were extracted by two authors independently, and combined using random-effect models. RESULTS: A total of 15 studies provided 17 estimates (731 337 participants, 23 894 CHD events) of the association of early BMI to later CHD outcome. BMI in early childhood (2-6 years, 3 estimates) showed a weak inverse association with CHD risk (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.82-1.07). BMI in later childhood (7 to <18 years, 7 estimates) and BMI in early adult life (18-30 years, 7 estimates) were both positively related to later CHD risk (RR 1.09, 95% CI 1.00-1.20; RR 1.19, 95% CI 1.11-1.29 respectively). However, there was considerable statistical heterogeneity between study estimates. Results were unaffected by adjustment for social class and/or cigarette smoking, blood pressure and/or total cholesterol, in studies with available data. Gender and year of birth (1900-1976) had little effect on the association. CONCLUSIONS: BMI is positively related to CHD risk from childhood onwards; the associations in young adults are consistent with those observed in middle age. Long-term control of BMI from childhood may be important to reduce the risk of CHD.

What factors are associated with physical activity in older people, assessed objectively by accelerometry?

OBJECTIVES: To assess physical activity (PA) levels measured objectively using accelerometers in community-dwelling older people and to examine the associations with health, disability, anthropometric measures and psychosocial factors. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. SETTING: Single general practice (primary care centre), United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: Random selection of 560 community-dwelling older people at least 65 years old, registered with the practice. 43% (238/560) participated. ASSESSMENT OF RISK FACTORS: Participants completed a questionnaire assessing health, disability, psychosocial factors and PA levels; underwent anthropometric assessment; and wore an accelerometer (Actigraph) for 7 days. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Average daily accelerometer step-counts and time spent in different PA levels. Associations between step-counts and other factors were examined using linear regression. RESULTS: Average daily step-count was 6443 (95% CI 6032 to 6853). Men achieved 754 (84 to 1424) more steps daily than women. Step-count declined steadily with age. Independent predictors of average daily step-count were: age; general health; disability; diabetes; body mass index; exercise self-efficacy; and perceived exercise control. Activities associated independently with higher step-counts included number of long walks and dog-walking. Only 2.5% (6/238) of participants achieved the recommended 150 minutes weekly of at least moderate-intensity activity in > or = 10 minute bouts; 62% (147/238) achieved none. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first population-based sample of older people with objective PA and anthropometric measures. PA levels in older people are well below recommended levels, emphasising the need to increase PA in this age group, particularly in those who are overweight/obese or have diabetes. The independent effects of exercise self-efficacy and exercise control on PA levels highlight their role as potential mediators for intervention studies.

Optic nerve sheath diameter, intracranial pressure and acute mountain sickness on Mount Everest: a longitudinal cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of optic nerve sheath diameter (ONSD), as a correlate of intracranial pressure (ICP), with acute mountain sickness (AMS). DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study of mountaineers from sea level to 6400 m. SETTING: Mount Everest (North side). PARTICIPANTS: 13 mountaineers (10 men, 3 women; aged 23-52 years) on a British expedition to climb Mount Everest. INTERVENTIONS: ONSD was measured ultrasonically, 3 mm behind the globe using B scans recorded with an OTI-Scan 3D scanner (Ophthalmic Technologies, Canada). Serial binocular scans were recorded at sea level, and 2000, 3700, 5200 and 6400 m. All ONSDs were measured by a blinded observer. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: ONSD, AMS score (using the Lake Louise scoring system), heart rate, and oxygen saturation levels. RESULTS: All results were analysed by regression analysis with adjustment. ONSD was positively associated with increasing altitude above sea level (0.10 mm increase in ONSD per 1000 m, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.14 mm) and AMS score (0.12 mm per score, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.18 mm); further associations were found with resting heart rate (0.29 mm per 20 beats/min, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.41 mm) and oxygen saturations (0.20 mm per 10% decrease, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.29 mm). CONCLUSIONS: ONSD increases at high altitude, and this increase is associated with more severe symptoms of AMS. Given the linkage between ONSD and ICP, these results strongly suggest that intracranial pressure plays an important role in the pathophysiology of AMS.

Automated arteriole and venule classification using deep learning for retinal images from the UK Biobank cohort.

The morphometric characteristics of the retinal vasculature are associated with future risk of many systemic and vascular diseases. However, analysis of data from large population based studies is needed to help resolve uncertainties in some of these associations. This requires automated systems that extract quantitative measures of vessel morphology from large numbers of retinal images. Associations between retinal vessel morphology and disease precursors/outcomes may be similar or opposing for arterioles and venules. Therefore, the accurate detection of the vessel type is an important element in such automated systems. This paper presents a deep learning approach for the automatic classification of arterioles and venules across the entire retinal image, including vessels located at the optic disc. This comprises of a convolutional neural network whose architecture contains six learned layers: three convolutional and three fully-connected. Complex patterns are automatically learnt from the data, which avoids the use of hand crafted features. The method is developed and evaluated using 835,914 centreline pixels derived from 100 retinal images selected from the 135,867 retinal images obtained at the UK Biobank (large population-based cohort study of middle aged and older adults) baseline examination. This is a challenging dataset in respect to image quality and hence arteriole/venule classification is required to be highly robust. The method achieves a significant increase in accuracy of 8.1% when compared to the baseline method, resulting in an arteriole/venule classification accuracy of 86.97% (per pixel basis) over the entire retinal image.

The epidemiology of medical treatment for glaucoma and ocular hypertension in the United Kingdom: 1994 to 2003.

AIMS: To study trends in the prevalence of being treated for glaucoma and ocular hypertension from 1994 to 2003, and to examine factors determining treatment in 2002. METHODS: Computerised data (the DIN-LINK database) from 131 general practices across the United Kingdom, in which half a million patients aged 40 years or more were registered annually, were used. On average 10 000 patients were treated for glaucoma and ocular hypertension annually. RESULTS: Prevalence of being treated for glaucoma and ocular hypertension increased from 1.7% in 1994 to 2.3% in 2003. Those aged 85 years or more were 13 times (95% CI 12.2 to 13.8) more likely to be treated than those aged 40-64 years. Men were more likely to be treated than women (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.28). Subjects "hard pressed" were less likely to be treated than "wealthy achievers" (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.86 to 0.99). While use of topical beta blocker only medications has declined since 1995, use of topical prostaglandins and combination therapies has increased. In 2003, use of prostaglandins overtook beta blocker only medications. CONCLUSION: Prevalence of being treated for glaucoma has increased over time, and rises with age. Differences in treatment by sex and social status could be explained by use of or access to health care or by underlying prevalence of disease. Trends in treated glaucoma emphasise the shift from use of topical beta blockers to newer therapies.

Simple tests for the diagnosis of childhood obesity: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

There is a need to accurately quantify levels of adiposity in order to identify overweight and obesity in children. This systematic review aimed to identify all diagnostic accuracy studies evaluating simple tests for obesity and adiposity, including body mass index (BMI), skin-fold thickness and waist circumference, compared against high-quality reference tests. Twenty-four cohort studies including 25,807 children were included. BMI had good performance when diagnosing obesity: a sensitivity of 81.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 73.0 to 93.8) for a specificity of 96.0% (95% CI: 93.8 to 98.1). It was less effective at diagnosing overweight (sensitivity: 76.3%, 95% CI: 70.2 to 82.4; specificity: 92.1% 95% CI: 90.0 to 94.3). When diagnosing obesity, waist circumference had similar performance (sensitivity: 83.8%; specificity: 96.5%). Skin-fold thickness had slightly poorer performance (sensitivity: 72.5%; specificity: 93.7%). Few studies considered any other tests. There was no conclusive evidence that any test was generally superior to the others. BMI is a good simple diagnostic test for identifying childhood adiposity. It identifies most genuinely obese and adipose children while misclassifying only a small number as obese. There was no conclusive evidence that any test should be preferred to BMI, and the extra complexity of skin-fold thickness tests does not appear to improve diagnostic accuracy.

Childhood obesity as a predictor of morbidity in adulthood: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Obese children are at higher risk of being obese as adults, and adult obesity is associated with an increased risk of morbidity. This systematic review and meta-analysis investigates the ability of childhood body mass index (BMI) to predict obesity-related morbidities in adulthood. Thirty-seven studies were included. High childhood BMI was associated with an increased incidence of adult diabetes (OR 1.70; 95% CI 1.30-2.22), coronary heart disease (CHD) (OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.10-1.31) and a range of cancers, but not stroke or breast cancer. The accuracy of childhood BMI when predicting any adult morbidity was low. Only 31% of future diabetes and 22% of future hypertension and CHD occurred in children aged 12 or over classified as being overweight or obese. Only 20% of all adult cancers occurred in children classified as being overweight or obese. Childhood obesity is associated with moderately increased risks of adult obesity-related morbidity, but the increase in risk is not large enough for childhood BMI to be a good predictor of the incidence of adult morbidities. This is because the majority of adult obesity-related morbidity occurs in adults who were of healthy weight in childhood. Therefore, targeting obesity reduction solely at obese or overweight children may not substantially reduce the overall burden of obesity-related disease in adulthood.

Predicting adult obesity from childhood obesity: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to investigate the ability of simple measures of childhood obesity such as body mass index (BMI) to predict future obesity in adolescence and adulthood. Large cohort studies, which measured obesity both in childhood and in later adolescence or adulthood, using any recognized measure of obesity were sought. Study quality was assessed. Studies were pooled using diagnostic meta-analysis methods. Fifteen prospective cohort studies were included in the meta-analysis. BMI was the only measure of obesity reported in any study, with 200,777 participants followed up. Obese children and adolescents were around five times more likely to be obese in adulthood than those who were not obese. Around 55% of obese children go on to be obese in adolescence, around 80% of obese adolescents will still be obese in adulthood and around 70% will be obese over age 30. Therefore, action to reduce and prevent obesity in these adolescents is needed. However, 70% of obese adults were not obese in childhood or adolescence, so targeting obesity reduction solely at obese or overweight children needs to be considered carefully as this may not substantially reduce the overall burden of adult obesity.

Automated retinal image quality assessment on the UK Biobank dataset for epidemiological studies.

Morphological changes in the retinal vascular network are associated with future risk of many systemic and vascular diseases. However, uncertainty over the presence and nature of some of these associations exists. Analysis of data from large population based studies will help to resolve these uncertainties. The QUARTZ (QUantitative Analysis of Retinal vessel Topology and siZe) retinal image analysis system allows automated processing of large numbers of retinal images. However, an image quality assessment module is needed to achieve full automation. In this paper, we propose such an algorithm, which uses the segmented vessel map to determine the suitability of retinal images for use in the creation of vessel morphometric data suitable for epidemiological studies. This includes an effective 3-dimensional feature set and support vector machine classification. A random subset of 800 retinal images from UK Biobank (a large prospective study of 500,000 middle aged adults; where 68,151 underwent retinal imaging) was used to examine the performance of the image quality algorithm. The algorithm achieved a sensitivity of 95.33% and a specificity of 91.13% for the detection of inadequate images. The strong performance of this image quality algorithm will make rapid automated analysis of vascular morphometry feasible on the entire UK Biobank dataset (and other large retinal datasets), with minimal operator involvement, and at low cost.

Cross-sectional study of ethnic differences in physical fitness among children of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin: the Child Heart and Health Study in England (CHASE).

OBJECTIVE: Little is known about levels of physical fitness in children from different ethnic groups in the UK. We therefore studied physical fitness in UK children (aged 9-10 years) of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Primary schools in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: 1625 children (aged 9-10 years) of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin in the UK studied between 2006 and 2007. OUTCOME MEASURES: A step test assessed submaximal physical fitness from which estimated VO2 max was derived. Ethnic differences in estimated VO2 max were estimated using multilevel linear regression allowing for clustering at school level and adjusting for age, sex and month as fixed effects. RESULTS: The study response rate was 63%. In adjusted analyses, boys had higher levels of estimated VO2 max than girls (mean difference 3.06 mL O2/min/kg, 95% CI 2.66 to 3.47, p<0.0001). Levels of estimated VO2 max were lower in South Asians than those in white Europeans (mean difference -0.79 mL O2/min/kg, 95% CI -1.41 to -0.18, p=0.01); levels of estimated VO2 max in black African-Caribbeans were higher than those in white Europeans (mean difference 0.60 mL O2/min/kg, 95% CI 0.02 to 1.17, p=0.04); these patterns were similar in boys and girls. The lower estimated VO2 max in South Asians, compared to white Europeans, was consistent among Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi children and was attenuated by 78% after adjustment for objectively measured physical activity (average daily steps). CONCLUSIONS: South Asian children have lower levels of physical fitness than white Europeans and black African-Caribbeans in the UK. This ethnic difference in physical fitness is at least partly explained by ethnic differences in physical activity.

Automated retinal vessel recognition and measurements on large datasets.

The characteristics of the retinal vascular network have been prospectively associated with many systemic and vascular diseases. QUARTZ is a fully automated software that has been developed to localize and quantify the morphological characteristics of blood vessels in retinal images for use in epidemiological studies. This software was used to analyse a dataset containing 16,000 retinal images from the EPIC-Norfolk cohort study. The objective of this paper is to both assess the suitability of this dataset for computational analysis and to further evaluate the QUARTZ software.

Crevice corrosion products of dental amalgam.

The objective of this study was to determine the in vitro corrosion products that resulted from crevice corrosion of low- and high-copper dental amalgams. Specimens were potentiostatically polarized in a chloride-containing electrolyte while set against a PTFE surface to form a crevice. After 16 h, corrosion products were examined by light microscopy, SEM, EDS, and XRD. Analysis showed the presence of three previously reported products [Sn4(OH)6Cl2, SnO, and Cu2O] and a new product, CuCl, which formed on high-copper, gamma 2-free amalgams. Thermodynamic considerations show that CuCl is stable for the reported in vivo potentials of amalgam restorations and the high acidity and high chloride ion concentration associated with crevice corrosion.

How big is the burden of visual loss caused by age related macular degeneration in the United Kingdom?

AIMS: To predict the burden of blindness, partial sight, and visual impairment (binocular visual acuity 6/18 or less) due to late stage age related macular degeneration (AMD) in the ageing population of the United Kingdom. METHODS: A systematic review, followed by a request for data, was used to establish a pooled prevalence of AMD and corresponding visual loss. Prevalence figures were applied to the UK population. Using UK population trends, the future burden of AMD over the coming decade was established. RESULTS: Pooled data from six studies showed that the prevalence of visual loss caused by AMD increased exponentially from the age of 70-85 years of age, with 3.5% (95% CI 3.0 to 4.1) having visual impairment beyond the age of 75 years. The authors estimate that there are currently 214 000 (95% CI 151 000 to 310 000) with visual impairment caused by AMD (suitable for registration). This number is expected to increase to 239 000 (95% CI 168 000 to 346 000) by the year 2011. Currently there are 172 000 (95% CI 106 000 to 279 000) and 245 000 (95% CI 163 000 to 364 000) with geographical and neovascular AMD, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of visual impairment agree with official statistics for the number registered partially sighted or blind, caused by AMD, and are well below other figures often cited. Although these estimates are associated with wide confidence intervals (CI) and a number of caveats, they represent the best available data, which can be used to guide health and social care provision for older people in the UK setting. Implications for low vision services are outlined.

Quantification of blood vessel calibre in retinal images of multi-ethnic school children using a model based approach.

Changes and variation in retinal vessel width are related to vascular risk factors and prospectively related to cardiovascular disease in later life. Hence, assessment of vessel width may be a useful physio-marker and potential predictor of cardiovascular status. However, measurement of vessel calibre from retinal images is a challenging process to automate. This paper proposes an automated system to measure vessel calibre in retinal images, which is demonstrated in images of multi-ethnic school children. The diameter measurement is based on the detection of the centreline pixels from a vessel probability map image, determining the vessel orientation at these pixels, extracting the vessel segments and later using a two-dimensional model, which is optimized to fit various types of intensity profiles of vessel segments. The width is then estimated from parameters of the optimized model. The method is also quantitatively analyzed using monochromatic representations of different colour spaces. The algorithm is evaluated on a recently introduced public database CHASE_DB1, which is a subset of retinal images of multi-ethnic children from the Child Heart and Health Study in England (CHASE) dataset. Moreover, the precise estimation of retinal vascular widths is critical for epidemiologists to identify the risk factors. This work also introduces an interactive software tool for epidemiologists, with which retinal vessel calibre can be precisely marked.