Variation in actuarial senescence does not reflect life span variation across mammals.

The concept of actuarial senescence (defined here as the increase in mortality hazards with age) is often confounded with life span duration, which obscures the relative role of age-dependent and age-independent processes in shaping the variation in life span. We use the opportunity afforded by the Species360 database, a collection of individual life span records in captivity, to analyze age-specific mortality patterns in relation to variation in life span. We report evidence of actuarial senescence across 96 mammal species. We identify the life stage (juvenile, prime-age, or senescent) that contributes the most to the observed variation in life span across species. Actuarial senescence only accounted for 35%-50% of the variance in life span across species, depending on the body mass category. We computed the sensitivity and elasticity of life span to five parameters that represent the three stages of the age-specific mortality curve-namely, the duration of the juvenile stage, the mean juvenile mortality, the prime-age (i.e., minimum) adult mortality, the age at the onset of actuarial senescence, and the rate of actuarial senescence. Next, we computed the between-species variance in these five parameters. Combining the two steps, we computed the relative contribution of each of the five parameters to the variance in life span across species. Variation in life span was increasingly driven by the intensity of actuarial senescence and decreasingly driven by prime-age adult mortality from small to large species because of changes in the elasticity of life span to these parameters, even if all the adult survival parameters consistently exhibited a canalization pattern of weaker variability among long-lived species than among short-lived ones. Our work unambiguously demonstrates that life span cannot be used to measure the strength of actuarial senescence, because a substantial and variable proportion of life span variation across mammals is not related to actuarial senescence metrics.

The two oxpecker species reveal the role of movement rates and foraging intensity in species coexistence.

The two Buphagus oxpecker species are specialized passerines that forage for ticks and other food particles on the body of ungulates in the African savannahs. One of their intriguing features is their ability to coexist despite sharing the same, specialized diet. Using co-occurrence data (photographs of giraffes with oxpeckers on them) and approximate Bayesian computing, we demonstrate that yellow-billed oxpeckers changed host faster than red-billed oxpeckers and appeared to displace red-billed oxpeckers from preferred giraffe body parts. Conversely, red-billed oxpeckers exhibited a fuller use of each host and displaced yellow-billed oxpeckers from distal giraffe body parts. These findings highlight that the partition of giraffe hosts in two separate niches was only part of the coexistence story in this species pair. More precisely, the oxpeckers shared the resource by exploiting it at different rates. They engaged in different trade-offs between giving-up density, patch discovery rate and competitor displacement ability. They illustrate the importance of the time frame of interactions.

Circadian periodicity in space use by ungulates of temperate regions: How much, when and why?

When they visit and revisit specific areas, animals may reveal what they need from their home range and how they acquire information. The temporal dimension of such movement recursions, that is, periodicity, is however rarely studied, yet potentially bears a species, population or individual-specific signature. A recent method allows estimating the contribution of periodic patterns to the variance in a movement path. We applied it to 709 individuals from five ungulate species, looking for species signatures in the form of seasonal variation in the intensity of circadian patterns. Circadian patterns were commonplace in the movement tracks, but the amount of variance they explained was highly variable among individuals. It increased in intensity during spring and summer, when key resources were spatially segregated, and decreased during winter, when food availability was more uniformly low. Other periodicity-inducing mechanisms supported by our comparison of species- and sex-specific patterns involve young antipredator behaviour, territoriality and behavioural thermoregulation. Model-based continuous-time movement metrics represent a new avenue for researchers interested in finding individual-, population- or species-specific signatures in heterogeneous movement databases featuring various study designs and sampling resolutions. However, we observed large amounts of individual variation, so comparative analyses should ideally use both GPS and animal-borne loggers to augment the discriminatory power and be based on large samples. We briefly outline potential uses of the intensity of circadian patterns as a metric for the study of animal personality and community ecology.

Migrating ospreys use thermal uplift over the open sea.

Most large raptors on migration avoid crossing the sea because of the lack of atmospheric convection over temperate seas. The osprey Pandion haliaetus is an exception among raptors, since it can fly over several hundred kilometres of open water. We equipped five juvenile ospreys with GPS-Accelerometer-Magnetometer loggers. All birds were able to find and use thermal uplift while crossing the Mediterranean Sea, on average 7.5 times per 100 km, and could reach altitudes of 900 m above the sea surface. Their climb rate was 1.6 times slower than over land, and birds kept flapping most of the time while circling in the thermals, indicating that convections cells were weaker than over land. The frequency of thermal soaring was correlated with the difference between the sea surface and air temperature, indicating that atmospheric convection occurred when surface waters were warmer than the overlaying air. These observations help explain the transoceanic cosmopolitan distribution of osprey, and question the widely held assumption that water bodies represent strict barriers for large raptors.

Coping with change in predation risk across space and time through complementary behavioral responses.

BACKGROUND: Our picture of behavioral management of risk by prey remains fragmentary. This partly stems from a lack of studies jointly analyzing different behavioral responses developed by prey, such as habitat use and fine-scale behavior, although they are expected to complement each other. We took advantage of a simple system on the Kerguelen archipelago, made of a prey species, European rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus, a predator, feral cat Felis catus, and a mosaic of closed and open foraging patches, allowing reliable assessment of spatio-temporal change in predation risk. We investigated the way such a change triggered individual prey decisions on where, when and how to perform routine activities. RESULTS: Rabbit presence and behavior were recorded both day and night in patches with similar foraging characteristics, but contrasted in terms of openness. Cats, individually recognizable, were more active at night and in closed patches, in line with their expected higher hunting success in those conditions. Accordingly, rabbits avoided using closed patches at night and increased their vigilance if they did. Both day and night, rabbits increased their use of closed patches as compared to open patches in windy conditions, thereby probably reducing the thermoregulatory costs expected under such harsh environmental conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our data map the landscape of fear in this study system and indicate that prey habitat use and vigilance complement each other. Solely focusing on one or the other tactic may lead to erroneous conclusions regarding the way predation risk triggers prey decisions. Finally, future studies should investigate inter-individual variability in the relative use of these different types of complementary behavioral responses to perceived risk, along with the determinants and outcomes of such tactics.

Partitioning prediction uncertainty in climate-dependent population models.

The science of complex systems is increasingly asked to forecast the consequences of climate change. As a result, scientists are now engaged in making predictions about an uncertain future, which entails the efficient communication of this uncertainty. Here we show the benefits of hierarchically decomposing the uncertainty in predicted changes in animal population size into its components due to structural uncertainty in climate scenarios (greenhouse gas emissions and global circulation models), structural uncertainty in the demographic model, climatic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity unexplained by climate-demographic trait relationships, and sampling variance in demographic parameter estimates. We quantify components of uncertainty surrounding the future abundance of a migratory bird, the greater snow goose (Chen caeruslescens atlantica), using a process-based demographic model covering their full annual cycle. Our model predicts a slow population increase but with a large prediction uncertainty. As expected from theoretical variance decomposition rules, the contribution of sampling variance to prediction uncertainty rapidly overcomes that of process variance and dominates. Among the sources of process variance, uncertainty in the climate scenarios contributed less than 3% of the total prediction variance over a 40-year period, much less than environmental stochasticity. Our study exemplifies opportunities to improve the forecasting of complex systems using long-term studies and the challenges inherent to predicting the future of stochastic systems.

Coupled range dynamics of brood parasites and their hosts responding to climate and vegetation changes.

As populations shift their ranges in response to global change, local species assemblages can change, setting the stage for new ecological interactions, community equilibria and evolutionary responses. Here, we focus on the range dynamics of four avian brood parasite species and their hosts in southern Africa, in a context of bush encroachment (increase in woody vegetation density in places previously occupied by savanna-grassland mosaics) favouring some species at the expense of others. We first tested whether hosts and parasites constrained each other's ability to expand or maintain their ranges. Secondly, we investigated whether range shifts represented an opportunity for new host-parasite and parasite-parasite interactions. We used multispecies dynamic occupancy models with interactions, fitted to citizen science data, to estimate the contribution of interspecific interactions to range shifts and to quantify the change in species co-occurrence probability over a 25-year period. Parasites were able to track their hosts' range shifts. We detected no deleterious effect of the parasites' presence on either the local population viability of host species or the hosts' ability to colonize newly suitable areas. In the recently diversified indigobird radiation (Vidua spp.), following bush encroachment, the new assemblages presented more potential opportunities for speciation via host switch, but also more potential for hybridization between extant lineages, also via host switch. Multispecies dynamic occupancy models with interactions brought new insights into the feedbacks between range shifts, biotic interactions and local demography: brood parasitism had little detected impact on extinction or colonization processes, but inversely the latter processes affected biotic interactions via the modification of co-occurrence patterns.

Twenty-five years of change in southern African passerine diversity: nonclimatic factors of change.

We analysed more than 25 years of change in passerine bird distribution in South Africa, Swaziland and Lesotho, to show that species distributions can be influenced by processes that are at least in part independent of the local strength and direction of climate change: land use and ecological succession. We used occupancy models that separate species' detection from species' occupancy probability, fitted to citizen science data from both phases of the Southern African Bird Atlas Project (1987-1996 and 2007-2013). Temporal trends in species' occupancy probability were interpreted in terms of local extinction/colonization, and temporal trends in detection probability were interpreted in terms of change in abundance. We found for the first time at this scale that, as predicted in the context of bush encroachment, closed-savannah specialists increased where open-savannah specialists decreased. In addition, the trend in the abundance of species a priori thought to be favoured by agricultural conversion was negatively correlated with human population density, which is in line with hypotheses explaining the decline in farmland birds in the Northern Hemisphere. In addition to climate, vegetation cover and the intensity and time since agricultural conversion constitute important predictors of biodiversity changes in the region. Their inclusion will improve the reliability of predictive models of species distribution.

The effect of the demographic history on the evolution of senescence: A potential new test of the mutation accumulation theory.

The different evolutionary theories of senescence predict different directions for the correlation between the population size and the intensity of senescence. Using simulations, I highlighted how the effect of the population size on the intensity of senescence could be reinforced by the time since populations have been large or small. I devised a mutation-selection model in which the effect of the mutations was age-specific. Several small populations diverged from a same large population at different points in time. At the end of the simulation, the correlation between the time since the populations had been small and the rate of senescence was positive under the mutation accumulation theory and negative under the antagonistic pleiotropy theory. The phenomenon was strong enough to reverse the usually negative relationship between the intensity of senescence and the generation time. These mutually-exclusive predictions could help broaden the taxonomic support for the mutation accumulation theory of senescence, currently mostly supported in humans and lab invertebrates. I briefly mention a few potential applications in real-life systems.

Compensation and additivity of anthropogenic mortality: life-history effects and review of methods.

Demographic compensation, the increase in average individual performance following a perturbation that reduces population size, and, its opposite, demographic overadditivity (or superadditivity) are central processes in both population ecology and wildlife management. A continuum of population responses to changes in cause-specific mortality exists, of which additivity and complete compensation constitute particular points. The position of a population on that continuum influences its ability to sustain exploitation and predation. Here I describe a method for quantifying where a population is on the continuum. Based on variance-covariance formulae, I describe a simple metric for the rate of compensation-additivity. I synthesize the results from 10 wildlife capture-recapture monitoring programmes from the literature and online databases, reviewing current statistical methods and the treatment of common sources of bias. These results are used to test hypotheses regarding the effects of life-history strategy, population density, average cause-specific mortality and age class on the rate of compensation-additivity. This comparative analysis highlights that long-lived species compensate less than short-lived species and that populations below their carrying capacity compensate less than those above.

Intra-guild interactions and projected impact of climate and land use changes on North American pochard ducks.

The co-occurrence of functionally similar species is very common in nature, and is often put forward as a basis for ecosystem resilience to disturbance. At the same time, competition between similar species is also considered a strong driver of community composition. However, environmental stochasticity can alter this prediction, either because competitive abilities depend on time-varying factors or because covariance in species' responses to environmental conditions masks the effect of competition. Interactions other than competition can also influence community dynamics but have received less attention. We used a simplified community of two sympatric duck species (redhead Aythya americana and canvasback A. valisineria) and a previously published analysis of 50 years of demographic data to parameterize a stochastic, density-dependent, stage-structured model. These ducks interact via nest parasitism (mostly of canvasback by redhead) in addition to competition for food resources, with consequences at the demographic level; these interactions are modulated by habitat availability (number of ponds in the study landscape). We found that if habitat availability decreased there was a high risk of quasi-extinction, and redheads, although initially able to maintain their numerical dominance, quickly became the least abundant species because they perform worse during droughts. If habitat availability increased, we found that the initially more rare canvasback would increase in relative abundance, albeit slowly. We interpret this as a shift from a community influenced by nest parasitism (which is detrimental to canvasback) to a community mostly driven by species-specific dynamics due to relaxation of resource limitation.

Positive relationships between association strength and phenotypic similarity characterize the assembly of mixed-species bird flocks worldwide.

Competition theory predicts that local communities should consist of species that are more dissimilar than expected by chance. We find a strikingly different pattern in a multicontinent data set (55 presence-absence matrices from 24 locations) on the composition of mixed-species bird flocks, which are important subunits of local bird communities the world over. By using null models and randomization tests followed by meta-analysis, we find the association strengths of species in flocks to be strongly related to similarity in body size and foraging behavior and higher for congeneric compared with noncongeneric species pairs. Given the local spatial scales of our individual analyses, differences in the habitat preferences of species are unlikely to have caused these association patterns; the patterns observed are most likely the outcome of species interactions. Extending group-living and social-information-use theory to a heterospecific context, we discuss potential behavioral mechanisms that lead to positive interactions among similar species in flocks, as well as ways in which competition costs are reduced. Our findings highlight the need to consider positive interactions along with competition when seeking to explain community assembly.

Integrated modeling of communities: parasitism, competition, and demographic synchrony in sympatric ducks.

Functionally similar species often co-occur within an ecosystem, and they can compete for or facilitate each other's access to resources. The coupled dynamics of such species play an important role in shaping biodiversity and an ecosystem's resilience to perturbations. Here we study two congeneric North American ducks: Redhead Aythya americana and Canvasback A. vaselineria. Both are largely sympatric during the breeding season, and in addition to competition, facultative parasitic egg-laying can lead to interspecific density dependence. Using multi-population integrated models, we combined capture-recovery data, population surveys, and age ratio data in order to simultaneously estimate the mechanistic drivers of fecundity, survival, and population dynamics for both species. Canvasback numbers positively affected Redhead fecundity, whereas Redhead numbers negatively affected Canvasback fecundity, as expected due to parasitism. This interaction was modulated by wetland habitat availability in a way that matched the observation that Redhead hens parasitize Canvasback nests under all conditions but exhibit typical nesting behavior more frequently during years with numerous ponds. Once these effects of density and habitat were statistically controlled for, we found high levels of interspecific synchrony in both fecundity and survival (respectively, 75% and 49% of remaining variation). Thus, both neutral and non-neutral mechanisms affected the dynamics of these functionally similar species. In this and other systems, our method can be used to test hypotheses about species coexistence and to gain insights into the demographic drivers of community dynamics.

Demographic response to perturbations: the role of compensatory density dependence in a North American duck under variable harvest regulations and changing habitat.

1. Most wild animal populations are subjected to many perturbations, including environmental forcing and anthropogenic mortality. How population size varies in response to these perturbations largely depends on life-history strategy and density regulation. 2. Using the mid-continent population of redhead Aythya americana (a North American diving duck), we investigated the population response to two major perturbations, changes in breeding habitat availability (number of ponds in the study landscape) and changes in harvest regulations directed at managing mortality patterns (bag limit). We used three types of data collected at the continental scale (capture-recovery, population surveys and age- and sex ratios in the harvest) and combined them into integrated population models to assess the interaction between density dependence and the effect of perturbations. 3. We observed a two-way interaction between the effects on fecundity of pond number and population density. Hatch-year female survival was also density dependent. Matrix modelling showed that population booms could occur after especially wet years. However, the effect of moderate variation in pond number was generally offset by density dependence the following year. 4. Mortality patterns were insensitive to changes in harvest regulations and, in males at least, insensitive to density dependence as well. We discuss potential mechanisms for compensation of hunting mortality as well as possible confounding factors. 5. Our results illustrate the interplay of density dependence and environmental variation both shaping population dynamics in a harvested species, which could be generalized to help guide the dual management of habitat and harvest regulations.

Nonparametric spatial regression of survival probability: visualization of population sinks in Eurasian woodcock.

Both evolutionary ecologists and wildlife managers make inference based on how fitness and demography vary in space. Spatial variation in survival can be difficult to assess in the wild because (1) multisite study designs are not well suited to populations that are continuously distributed across a large area and (2) available statistical models accounting for detectability less than 1.0 do not easily cope with geographical coordinates. Here we use penalized splines within a Bayesian state-space modeling framework to estimate and visualize survival probability in two dimensions. The approach is flexible in that no parametric form for the relationship between survival and coordinates need be specified a priori. To illustrate our method, we study a game species, the Eurasian Woodcock Scolopax rusticola, based on band recovery data (5000 individuals) collected over a > 50 000-km2 area in west-central France with contrasted habitats and hunting pressures. We find that spatial variation in survival probability matches an index of hunting pressure and creates a mosaic of population sources and sinks. Such analyses could provide guidance concerning the spatial management of hunting intensity or could be used to identify pathways of spatial variation in fitness, for example, to study adaptation to changing landscape and climate.

Thiophene and bioisostere derivatives as new MMP12 inhibitors.

A new MMP12 inhibitor series has been identified containing a thiophene moiety. Different approaches have been considered to replace this potential toxicophore. α-Fluorothiophene derivatives were the most interesting compounds. Their synthesis is presented.

Positive early-late life-history trait correlations in elephant seals.

Correlations between early- and late-life performance are a major prediction of life-history theory. Negative early-late correlations can emerge because biological processes are optimized for early but not late life (e.g., rapid development may accelerate the onset of senescence; "developmental theory of aging") or because allocation to early-life performance comes at a cost in terms of late-life performance (as in the disposable soma theory). But variation in genetic and environmental challenges that each individual has to cope with during early life may also lead to positive early-late life-history trait correlations (the "fixed heterogeneity" or "individual quality" hypothesis). We analyzed individual life-history trajectories of 7,420 known-age female southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) monitored over 36 yr to determine how actuarial senescence (a proxy for late-life performance) correlate with age at first reproduction (a proxy for early-life performance). As some breeding events may not be detected in this field study, we used a custom "multievent" hierarchical model to estimate the age at first reproduction and correlate it to other life-history traits. The probability of first reproduction was 0.34 at age 3, with most females breeding for the first time at age 4, and comparatively few at older ages. Females with an early age of first reproduction outperformed delayed breeders in all aspects we considered (survival, rate of senescence, net reproductive output) but one: early breeders appeared to have an onset of actuarial senescence 1 yr earlier compared to late breeders. Genetics and environmental conditions during early life likely explain the positive correlation between early- and late-life performance. Our results provide the first evidence of actuarial senescence in female southern elephant seals.

Age at the onset of senescence in birds and mammals is predicted by early-life performance.

Life-history theory predicts that traits involved in maturity, reproduction and survival correlate along a fast-slow continuum of life histories. Evolutionary theories and empirical results indicate that senescence-related traits vary along this continuum, with slow species senescing later and at a slower pace than fast species. Because senescence patterns are typically difficult to estimate from studies in the wild, here we propose to predict the associated trait values in the frame of life-history theory. From a comparative analysis based on 81 free-ranging populations of 72 species of birds and mammals, we find that a nonlinear combination of fecundity, age at first reproduction and survival over the immature stage can account for ca two-thirds of the variance in the age at the onset of actuarial senescence. Our life-history model performs better than a model predicting the onset based on generation time, and it only includes life-history traits during early life as explanatory variables, i.e. parameters that are both theoretically expected to shape senescence and are measurable within relatively short studies. We discuss the good-fit of our life-history model to the available data in the light of current evolutionary theories of senescence. We further use it to evaluate whether studies that provided no evidence for senescence lasted long enough to include the onset of senescence.

Studying dispersal at the landscape scale: efficient combination of population surveys and capture-recapture data.

Researchers often rely on capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data to study animal dispersal in the wild. Yet their spatial coverage often does not encompass the entire dispersal range of the study individuals, sometimes producing misleading results. Information contained in population surveys and variation in population spatial structure can be used to overcome this issue. We build an integrated model in a multisite context in which CMR data are only collected at a subset of sites, but numbers of breeding pairs are counted at all sites. In a Black-headed Gull Chroicocephalus ridibundus population, the integrated-modeling approach induces an increase in precision for the demographic parameters of interest (variances, on average, were decreased by 20%) and provides a more precise extrapolation of results from the CMR data to the whole population. Patterns of condition-dependent dispersal are therefore made easier to detect, and we obtain evidence for colony-size dependence in recruitment, dispersal, and breeding success. These results suggest that first-time breeders disperse to small colonies in order to recruit earlier. The exchange of experienced breeders between colonies appears as a main determinant of the observed variation in colony sizes.

Breeding dispersal in black-headed gull: the value of familiarity in a contrasted environment.

1. Some species (e.g. migratory species with high movement ability) are unlikely to experience any physical cost when dispersing, at least at the landscape scale. In these species dispersal is nevertheless behaviourally constrained to avoid non-physical costs such as the loss of familiarity with the breeding environment, and these constraints can be maladaptive in a fast-changing environment. 2. We evaluated such constraints using multievent modelling of a 20-year capture-mark-recapture data set from a multisite population of black-headed gull (Chroicocephalus ridibundus). The population undertakes seasonal migrations that are very large compared with the size of the study area. 3. Distances between colonies appeared as a strong predictor of breeding adults' dispersal rates, confirming behavioural constraints on dispersal. In addition, birds that had recruited outside their colony of birth (natal dispersers) tended to return to their colony of birth later in life (long-term memory effect). 4. An attraction for larger colonies was also visible in breeding adult dispersal patterns. The fact that distance and memory still constrained dispersal although the largest colony provided higher breeding success indicated departures from the ideal-free distribution, probably linked with the lack of information about distant colonies. Moreover, the regional population apparently functioned as a meta-colony where individuals frequently bred in suboptimal-choice locations before being able to recruit in their preferred colony.