Excess Mortality Calculations to Assess the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Concepts and Methodological Issues.

We discuss some intriguing methodological aspects of excess mortality analyses, which have been widely used to describe the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We describe the main ways of presenting excess mortality: as a mortality rate (incidence rate) or as a percentage increase (relative risk or rate ratio). We discuss what should be regarded as the null value of excess mortality (i.e., when countries or regions can be judged as having fared equally well) and when age and sex standardization, adjustment for other determinants of the spread of a pandemic, or both is necessary. We discuss the level of detail by time and place and person that may be necessary. We note that an excess mortality comparison is essentially a difference-in-differences analysis. We conclude that, although one cannot rule out using excess mortality analyses for causal effect estimates, such analyses will remain most fruitful for generating hypotheses about both the efficiency of measures to curtail the pandemic and factors that cannot be influenced. Nevertheless, a judicious use of arguments and counterarguments can then lead to identifying best practices for various situations. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(6):593-598. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307572).

Risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection at a UK electricity-generating company: a test-negative design case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: Identify workplace risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection, using data collected by a UK electricity-generating company. METHODS: Using a test-negative design case-control study, we estimated the OR of infection by job category, site, test reason, sex, vaccination status, vulnerability, site outage and site COVID-19 weekly risk rating, adjusting for age, test date and test type. RESULTS: From an original 80 077 COVID-19 tests, there were 70 646 included in the final analysis. Most exclusions were due to being visitor tests (5030) or tests after an individual first tested positive (2968).Women were less likely to test positive than men (OR=0.71; 95% CI 0.58 to 0.86). Test reason was strongly associated with positivity and although not a cause of infection itself, due to differing test regimes by area, it was a strong confounder for other variables. Compared with routine tests, tests due to symptoms were highest risk (94.99; 78.29 to 115.24), followed by close contact (16.73; 13.80 to 20.29) and broader-defined work contact 2.66 (1.99 to 3.56). After adjustment, we found little difference in risk by job category, but some differences by site with three sites showing substantially lower risks, and one site showing higher risks in the final model. CONCLUSIONS: In general, infection risk was not associated with job category. Vulnerable individuals were at slightly lower risk, tests during outages were higher risk, vaccination showed no evidence of an effect on testing positive, and site COVID-19 risk rating did not show an ordered trend in positivity rates.

Disagreement concerning atopic dermatitis subtypes between an English prospective cohort (ALSPAC) and linked electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: Subtypes of atopic dermatitis (AD) have been derived from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) based on presence and severity of symptoms reported in questionnaires (Severe-Frequent, Moderate-Frequent, Moderate-Declining, Mild-Intermittent, Unaffected/Rare). Good agreement between ALSPAC and linked electronic health records (EHRs) would increase trust in the clinical validity of these subtypes and allow inferring subtypes from EHRs alone, which would enable their study in large primary care databases. OBJECTIVES: 1. Explore if presence and number of AD records in EHRs agrees with AD symptom and severity reports from ALSPAC; 2. Explore if EHRs agree with ALSPAC-derived AD subtypes; 3. Construct models to classify ALSPAC-derived AD subtype using EHRs. METHODS: We used data from the ALSPAC prospective cohort study from 11 timepoints until age 14 years (1991-2008), linked to local general practice EHRs. We assessed how far ALSPAC questionnaire responses and derived subtypes agreed with AD as established in EHRs using different AD definitions (e.g., diagnosis and/or prescription) and other AD-related records. We classified AD subtypes using EHRs, fitting multinomial logistic regression models tuning hyperparameters and evaluating performance in the testing set (ROC AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity). RESULTS: 8,828 individuals out of a total 13,898 had both been assigned an AD subtype and had linked EHRs. The number of AD-related codes in EHRs generally increased with severity of AD subtype, however not all with the Severe-Frequent subtypes had AD in EHRs, and many with the Unaffected/Rare subtype did have AD in EHRs. When predicting ALSPAC AD subtype using EHRs, the best tuned model had ROC AUC of 0.65, sensitivity of 0.29 and specificity of 0.83 (both macro averaged); when different sets of predictors were used, individuals with missing EHR coverage excluded, and subtypes combined, sensitivity was not considerably improved. CONCLUSIONS: ALSPAC and EHRs disagreed not just on AD subtypes, but also on whether children had AD or not. Researchers should be aware that individuals considered as having AD in one source may not be considered as having AD in another.

A UK framework for the assessment and integration of different scientific evidence streams in chemical risk assessment.

BACKGROUND: Few methods are available for transparently combining different evidence streams for chemical risk assessment to reach an integrated conclusion on the probability of causation. Hence, the UK Committees on Toxicity (COT) and on Carcinogenicity (COC) have reviewed current practice and developed guidance on how to achieve this in a transparent manner, using graphical visualisation. METHODS/APPROACH: All lines of evidence, including toxicological, epidemiological, new approach methodologies, and mode of action should be considered, taking account of their strengths/weaknesses in their relative weighting towards a conclusion on the probability of causation. A qualitative estimate of the probability of causation is plotted for each line of evidence and a combined estimate provided. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS: Guidance is provided on integration of multiple lines of evidence for causation, based on current best practice. Qualitative estimates of probability for each line of evidence are plotted graphically. This ensures a deliberative, consensus conclusion on likelihood of causation is reached. It also ensures clear communication of the influence of the different lines of evidence on the overall conclusion on causality. Issues on which advice from the respective Committees is sought varies considerably, hence the guidance is designed to be sufficiently flexible to meet this need.

Prevalent occupational exposures and risk of lung cancer among women: Results from the application of the Canadian Job-Exposure Matrix (CANJEM) to a combined set of ten case-control studies.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, lung cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death in women. The present study explored associations between occupational exposures that are prevalent among women, and lung cancer. METHODS: Data from 10 case-control studies of lung cancer from Europe, Canada, and New Zealand conducted between 1988 and 2008 were combined. Lifetime occupational history and information on nonoccupational factors including smoking were available for 3040 incident lung cancer cases and 4187 controls. We linked each reported job to the Canadian Job-Exposure Matrix (CANJEM), which provided estimates of probability, intensity, and frequency of exposure to each selected agent in each job. For this analysis, we selected 15 agents (cleaning agents, biocides, cotton dust, synthetic fibers, formaldehyde, cooking fumes, organic solvents, cellulose, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from petroleum, ammonia, metallic dust, alkanes C18+, iron compounds, isopropanol, and calcium carbonate) that had lifetime exposure prevalence of at least 5% in the combined study population. For each agent, we estimated lung cancer risk in each study center for ever-exposure, by duration of exposure, and by cumulative exposure, using separate logistic regression models adjusted for smoking and other covariates. We then estimated the meta-odds ratios using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: None of the agents assessed showed consistent and compelling associations with lung cancer among women. The following agents showed elevated odds ratio in some analyses: metallic dust, iron compounds, isopropanol, and organic solvents. Future research into occupational lung cancer risk factors among women should prioritize these agents.

Effectiveness of mRNA boosters after homologous primary series with BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 against symptomatic infection and severe COVID-19 in Brazil and Scotland: A test-negative design case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Brazil and Scotland have used mRNA boosters in their respective populations since September 2021, with Omicron's emergence accelerating their booster program. Despite this, both countries have reported substantial recent increases in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. The duration of the protection conferred by the booster dose against symptomatic Omicron cases and severe outcomes is unclear. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using a test-negative design, we analyzed national databases to estimate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of a primary series (with ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2) plus an mRNA vaccine booster (with BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273) against symptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and severe COVID-19 outcomes (hospitalization or death) during the period of Omicron dominance in Brazil and Scotland compared to unvaccinated individuals. Additional analyses included stratification by age group (18 to 49, 50 to 64, ≥65). All individuals aged 18 years or older who reported acute respiratory illness symptoms and tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection between January 1, 2022, and April 23, 2022, in Brazil and Scotland were eligible for the study. At 14 to 29 days after the mRNA booster, the VE against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection of ChAdOx1 plus BNT162b2 booster was 51.6%, (95% confidence interval (CI): [51.0, 52.2], p < 0.001) in Brazil and 67.1% (95% CI [65.5, 68.5], p < 0.001) in Scotland. At ≥4 months, protection against symptomatic infection waned to 4.2% (95% CI [0.7, 7.6], p = 0.02) in Brazil and 37.4% (95% CI [33.8, 40.9], p < 0.001) in Scotland. VE against severe outcomes in Brazil was 93.5% (95% CI [93.0, 94.0], p < 0.001) at 14 to 29 days post-booster, decreasing to 82.3% (95% CI [79.7, 84.7], p < 0.001) and 98.3% (95% CI [87.3, 99.8], p < 0.001) to 77.8% (95% CI [51.4, 89.9], p < 0.001) in Scotland for the same periods. Similar results were obtained with the primary series of BNT162b2 plus homologous booster. Potential limitations of this study were that we assumed that all cases included in the analysis were due to the Omicron variant based on the period of dominance and the limited follow-up time since the booster dose. CONCLUSIONS: We observed that mRNA boosters after a primary vaccination course with either mRNA or viral-vector vaccines provided modest, short-lived protection against symptomatic infection with Omicron but substantial and more sustained protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes for at least 3 months.

Influence of comorbidity on mortality in patients with epilepsy and psychogenic nonepileptic seizures.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to determine the contribution of comorbidities to excess psychogenic nonepileptic seizures (PNES) mortality. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted of tertiary epilepsy outpatients from St. Vincent's Hospital Melbourne, Australia with an 8:1 comparison cohort, matched by age, sex, and socioeconomic status (SES) to national administrative databases between 2007 and 2017. Privacy-preserving data linkage was undertaken with the national prescription, National Death Index, and National Coronial Information System. Forty-five comorbid disease classes were derived by applying the Australian validated RxRisk-V to all dispensed prescriptions. We fitted Cox proportional hazard models controlling for age, sex, SES, comorbidity, disease duration, and number of concomitant antiseizure medications, as a marker of disease severity. We also performed a parallel forward-selection change in estimate strategy to explore which specific comorbidities contributed to the largest changes in the hazard ratio. RESULTS: A total of 13 488 participants were followed for a median 3.2 years (interquartile range = 2.4-4.0 years), including 1628 tertiary epilepsy outpatients, 1384 patients with epilepsy, 176 with PNES, and 59 with both. Eighty-two percent of epileptic seizures and 92% of typical PNES events were captured in an epilepsy monitoring unit. The age-/sex-/SES-adjusted hazard ratio was elevated for epilepsy (4.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.36-6.68) and PNES (3.46, 95% CI = 1.38-8.68) and remained elevated for epilepsy (3.21, 95% CI = 2.22-4.63) but not PNES (2.15, 95% CI = .77-6.04) after comorbidity adjustment. PNES had more pre-existing comorbidities (p = .0007), with a three times greater median weighted Rx-RiskV score. Psychotic illness, opioid analgesia, malignancies, and nonopioid analgesia had the greatest influence on PNES comorbid risk. SIGNIFICANCE: Higher comorbidity appears to explain the excess PNES mortality and may represent either a wider underrecognized somatoform disorder or a psychological response to physical illness. Better understanding and management of the bidirectional relationship of these wider somatic treatments in PNES could potentially reduce the risk of death.

Heart rate variability as a marker of autonomic nervous system activity in young people with eosinophilic and non-eosinophilic asthma.

OBJECTIVE: An imbalance in autonomic nervous system (ANS) activity may play a role in asthma, but it is unclear whether this is associated with specific pathophysiology. This study assessed ANS activity by measuring heart rate variability (HRV) in eosinophilic (EA) and non-eosinophilic asthma (NEA) and people without asthma. METHODS: HRV, combined hypertonic saline challenge/sputum induction, exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO), skin prick tests to measure atopy, and spirometry tests were conducted in teenagers and young adults (14-21 years) with (n = 96) and without (n = 72) generally well-controlled asthma. HRV parameters associated with sympathetic and parasympathetic ANS branches were analyzed. EA and NEA were defined using a 2.5% sputum eosinophil cut-point. Airway hyperreactivity (AHR) was defined as ≥15% reduction in FEV1 following saline challenge. RESULTS: HRV parameters did not differ between asthmatics and non-asthmatics or EA and NEA. They were also not associated with markers of inflammation, lung function or atopy. However, increased absolute low frequency (LFµs2; representing increased sympathetic nervous system (SNS) activity) was found in asthmatics who used ß-agonist medication compared to those who did not (median: 1611, IQR 892-3036 vs 754, 565-1592; p < 0.05) and increased normalized low frequency (LF nu) was found in those with AHR compared to without AHR (64, 48-71 vs 53, 43-66; p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: ANS activity (as measured using HRV analysis) is not associated with pathophysiology or inflammatory phenotype in young asthmatics with generally well-controlled asthma. However, enhanced SNS activity can be detected in asthmatics with AHR or who use ß-agonist medication.

Occupational differences in the prevalence and severity of long-COVID: analysis of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey.

OBJECTIVES: To establish whether prevalence and severity of long-COVID symptoms vary by industry and occupation. METHODS: We used Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey (CIS) data (February 2021-April 2022) of working-age participants (16-65 years). Exposures were industry, occupation and major Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) group. Outcomes were self-reported: (1) long-COVID symptoms and (2) reduced function due to long-COVID. Binary (outcome 1) and ordered (outcome 2) logistic regression were used to estimate odds ratios (OR)and prevalence (marginal means). RESULTS: Public facing industries, including teaching and education, social care, healthcare, civil service, retail and transport industries and occupations, had the highest likelihood of long-COVID. By major SOC group, those in caring, leisure and other services (OR 1.44, 95% CIs 1.38 to 1.52) had substantially elevated odds than average. For almost all exposures, the pattern of ORs for long-COVID symptoms followed SARS-CoV-2 infections, except for professional occupations (eg, some healthcare, education, scientific occupations) (infection: OR<1 ; long-COVID: OR>1). The probability of reporting long-COVID for industry ranged from 7.7% (financial services) to 11.6% (teaching and education); whereas the prevalence of reduced function by 'a lot' ranged from 17.1% (arts, entertainment and recreation) to 22%-23% (teaching and education and armed forces) and to 27% (not working). CONCLUSIONS: The risk and prevalence of long-COVID differs across industries and occupations. Generally, it appears that likelihood of developing long-COVID symptoms follows likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection, except for professional occupations. These findings highlight sectors and occupations where further research is needed to understand the occupational factors resulting in long-COVID.

Potential contribution of vaccination uptake to occupational differences in risk of SARS-CoV-2: analysis of the ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey.

OBJECTIVES: To assess variation in vaccination uptake across occupational groups as a potential explanation for variation in risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. DESIGN: We analysed data from the UK Office of National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey linked to vaccination data from the National Immunisation Management System in England from 1 December 2020 to 11 May 2022. We analysed vaccination uptake and SARS-CoV-2 infection risk by occupational group and assessed whether adjustment for vaccination reduced the variation in risk between occupational groups. RESULTS: Estimated rates of triple vaccination were high across all occupational groups (80% or above), but were lowest for food processing (80%), personal care (82%), hospitality (83%), manual occupations (84%) and retail (85%). High rates were observed for individuals working in health (95% for office based, 92% for those in patient-facing roles) and education (91%) and office-based workers not included in other categories (90%). The impact of adjusting for vaccination when estimating relative risks of infection was generally modest (ratio of hazard ratios across all occupational groups reduced from 1.37 to 1.32), but was consistent with the hypothesis that low vaccination rates contribute to elevated risk in some groups. CONCLUSIONS: Variation in vaccination coverage might account for a modest proportion of occupational differences in infection risk. Vaccination rates were uniformly very high in this cohort, which may suggest that the participants are not representative of the general population. Accordingly, these results should be considered tentative pending the accumulation of additional evidence.

A SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in a plastics manufacturing plant.

BACKGROUND: A SARS-CoV-2 outbreak with an attack rate of 14.3% was reported at a plastics manufacturing plant in England. METHODS: Between 23rd March and 13th May 2021, the COVID-OUT team undertook a comprehensive outbreak investigation, including environmental assessment, surface sampling, molecular and serological testing, and detailed questionnaires, to identify potential SARS-CoV-2 transmission routes, and workplace- and worker-related risk factors. RESULTS: While ventilation, indicated using real-time CO2 proxy measures, was generally adequate on-site, the technical office with the highest localized attack rate (21.4%) frequently reached peaks in CO2 of 2100ppm. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was found in low levels (Ct ≥35) in surface samples collected across the site. High noise levels (79dB) were recorded in the main production area, and study participants reported having close work contacts (73.1%) and sharing tools (75.5%). Only 20.0% of participants reported using a surgical mask and/or FFP2/FFP3 respirator at least half the time and 71.0% expressed concerns regarding potential pay decreases and/or unemployment due to self-isolation or workplace closure. CONCLUSIONS: The findings reinforce the importance of enhanced infection control measures in manufacturing sectors, including improved ventilation with possible consideration of CO2 monitoring, utilising air cleaning interventions in enclosed environments, and provision of good-quality face masks (i.e., surgical masks or FFP2/FFP3 respirators) especially when social distancing cannot be maintained. Further research on the impacts of job security-related concerns is warranted.

Worldwide trends in the burden of asthma symptoms in school-aged children: Global Asthma Network Phase I cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Asthma is the most common chronic disease in children globally. The Global Asthma Network (GAN) Phase I study aimed to determine if the worldwide burden of asthma symptoms is changing. METHODS: This updated cross-sectional study used the same methods as the International study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) Phase III. Asthma symptoms were assessed from centres that completed GAN Phase I and ISAAC Phase I (1993-95), ISAAC Phase III (2001-03), or both. We included individuals from two age groups (children aged 6-7 years and adolescents aged 13-14 years) who self-completed written questionnaires at school. We estimated the 10-year rate of change in prevalence of current wheeze, severe asthma symptoms, ever having asthma, exercise wheeze, and night cough (defined by core questions in the questionnaire) for each centre, and we estimated trends across world regions and income levels using mixed-effects linear regression models with region and country income level as confounders. FINDINGS: Overall, 119 795 participants from 27 centres in 14 countries were included: 74 361 adolescents (response rate 90%) and 45 434 children (response rate 79%). About one in ten individuals of both age groups had wheeze in the preceding year, of whom almost half had severe symptoms. Most centres showed a change in prevalence of 2 SE or more between ISAAC Phase III to GAN Phase I. Over the 27-year period (1993-2020), adolescents showed a significant decrease in percentage point prevalence per decade in severe asthma symptoms (-0·37, 95% CI -0·69 to -0·04) and an increase in ever having asthma (1·25, 0·67 to 1·83) and night cough (4·25, 3·06 to 5·44), which was also found in children (3·21, 1·80 to 4·62). The prevalence of current wheeze decreased in low-income countries (-1·37, -2·47 to -0·27], in children and -1·67, -2·70 to -0·64, in adolescents) and increased in lower-middle-income countries (1·99, 0·33 to 3·66, in children and 1·69, 0·13 to 3·25, in adolescents), but it was stable in upper-middle-income and high-income countries. INTERPRETATION: Trends in prevalence and severity of asthma symptoms over the past three decades varied by age group, country income, region, and centre. The high worldwide burden of severe asthma symptoms would be mitigated by enabling access to effective therapies for asthma. FUNDING: International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, Boehringer Ingelheim New Zealand, AstraZeneca Educational Grant, National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, European Research Council, and Instituto de Salud Carlos III.

Improving lung health in low-income and middle-income countries: from challenges to solutions.

Low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) bear a disproportionately high burden of the global morbidity and mortality caused by chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs), including asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, bronchiectasis, and post-tuberculosis lung disease. CRDs are strongly associated with poverty, infectious diseases, and other non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and contribute to complex multi-morbidity, with major consequences for the lives and livelihoods of those affected. The relevance of CRDs to health and socioeconomic wellbeing is expected to increase in the decades ahead, as life expectancies rise and the competing risks of early childhood mortality and infectious diseases plateau. As such, the World Health Organization has identified the prevention and control of NCDs as an urgent development issue and essential to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. In this Review, we focus on CRDs in LMICs. We discuss the early life origins of CRDs; challenges in their prevention, diagnosis, and management in LMICs; and pathways to solutions to achieve true universal health coverage.

The burden of asthma, hay fever and eczema in adults in 17 countries: GAN Phase I study.

AIMS: Asthma, hay fever and eczema are three common chronic conditions. There have been no recent multi-country data on the burden of these three conditions in adults; the aims of this study are to fill this evidence gap. METHODS: The Global Asthma Network Phase I is a multi-country cross-sectional population-based study using the same core methodology as the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood Phase III. It provides data on the burden of asthma, hay fever and eczema in children and adolescents, and, for the first time, in their parents/guardians. RESULTS: Data were available from 193 912 adults (104 061 female; mean±sd age 38±7.5 years) in 43 centres in 17 countries. The overall prevalence (range) of symptoms was 6.6% (0.9-32.7%) for current wheeze, 4.4% (0.9-29.0%) for asthma ever, 14.4% (2.8-45.7%) for hay fever ever and 9.9% (1.6-29.5%) for eczema ever. Centre prevalence varied considerably both between countries and within countries. There was a moderate correlation between hay fever ever and asthma ever, and between eczema ever and hay fever ever at the centre level. There were moderate to strong correlations between indicators of the burden of disease reported in adults and the two younger age groups. CONCLUSION: We found evidence for a substantial burden of asthma, hay fever ever and eczema ever in the countries examined, highlighting the major public health importance of these diseases. Prevention strategies and equitable access to effective and affordable treatments for these three conditions would help mitigate the avoidable morbidity they cause.

The burden of asthma, hay fever and eczema in children in 25 countries: GAN Phase I study.

AIMS: There have been no worldwide standardised surveys of prevalence and severity of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema in school children for 15 years. The present study aims to provide this information. METHODS: Following the exact International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) methodology (cross-sectional questionnaire-based survey), Global Asthma Network (GAN) Phase I was carried out between 2015 and 2020 in many centres worldwide. RESULTS: The study included 157 784 adolescents (13-14 years of age) in 63 centres in 25 countries and 101 777 children (6-7 years of age) in 44 centres in 16 countries. The current prevalence of symptoms, respectively, was 11.0% and 9.1% for asthma, 13.3% and 7.7% for rhinoconjunctivitis and 6.4% and 5.9% for eczema. The prevalence of asthma ever was 10.5% and 7.6%, hay fever ever was 15.2% and 11.1% and eczema ever was 10.6% and 13.4%, respectively. Centres in low or lower middle gross national income countries (LICs or LMICs) had significantly lower prevalence of the three disease symptoms and diagnoses (except for hay fever). In children, the prevalence of asthma and rhinoconjunctivitis symptoms was higher in boys, while the reverse occurred among adolescents. For eczema, while the prevalence among female adolescents was double that of males, there was no sex difference among children. Centre accounted for non-negligible variability in all disease symptoms (10-20%). CONCLUSION: The burdens of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema vary widely among the limited number of countries studied. Although symptom prevalence is lower in LICs and LMICs, it represents a considerable burden everywhere studied.

CoronaVac vaccine is effective in preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 in pregnant women in Brazil: a test-negative case-control study.

BACKGROUND: More doses of CoronaVac have been administered worldwide than any other COVID-19 vaccine. However, the effectiveness of COVID-19 inactivated vaccines in pregnant women is still unknown. We estimated the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of CoronaVac against symptomatic and severe COVID-19 in pregnant women in Brazil. METHODS: We conducted a test-negative design study in all pregnant women aged 18-49 years with COVID-19-related symptoms in Brazil from March 15, 2021, to October 03, 2021, linking records of negative and positive SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests to national vaccination records. We also linked records of test-positive cases with notifications of severe, hospitalised or fatal COVID-19. Using logistic regression, we estimated the adjusted odds ratio and VE against symptomatic COVID-19 and against severe COVID-19 by comparing vaccine status in test-negative subjects to test-positive symptomatic cases and severe cases. RESULTS: Of the 19,838 tested pregnant women, 7424 (37.4%) tested positive for COVID-19 and 588 (7.9%) had severe disease. Only 83% of pregnant women who received the first dose of CoronaVac completed the vaccination scheme. A single dose of the CoronaVac vaccine was not effective at preventing symptomatic COVID-19. The effectiveness of two doses of CoronaVac was 41% (95% CI 27.1-52.2) against symptomatic COVID-19 and 85% (95% CI 59.5-94.8) against severe COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: A complete regimen of CoronaVac in pregnant women was effective in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 and highly effective against severe illness in a setting that combined high disease burden and marked COVID-19-related maternal deaths.

Neighborhood environment and socioeconomic inequalities in cancer admissions: a prospective study using UK Biobank and linked hospital records.

PURPOSE: Neighborhood environments may influence cancer risk. Average population effect estimates might mask differential effects by socioeconomic position. Improving neighborhood environments could inadvertently widen health inequalities if important differences are overlooked. METHODS: Using linked records of hospital admissions in UK Biobank, we assessed associations between admission with a primary diagnosis of cancer (any/breast/colorectal), and exposure to neighborhood greenspace, physical activity facilities, and takeaway food stores, and whether household income and area deprivation modify these associations. We used adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, and estimated relative excess risks due to interaction (RERI) to assess effect modification. RESULTS: Associations between neighborhood exposures and cancer-related hospitalizations were weak to null overall, but with some evidence of effect modification. Most notably, more greenspace near home was associated with 16% lower hazard of cancer-related hospital admission in deprived areas (95% CI 2-29%). This was further pronounced for people in low-income households in deprived areas, and for breast cancer. CONCLUSION: In deprived neighborhoods, increasing the amount of greenspace may help reduce cancer-related hospitalizations. Examining effect modification by multiple socioeconomic indicators can yield greater insight into how social and environmental factors interact to influence cancer incidence. This may help avoid perpetuating cancer inequalities when designing neighborhood environment interventions.

Analysis of Immune Landscape in Pancreatic and Ileal Neuroendocrine Tumours Demonstrates an Immune Cold Tumour Microenvironment.

INTRODUCTION: Neuroendocrine tumours (NETs) are rare tumours with an increasing incidence. While low- and intermediate-grade pancreatic NET (PanNET) and small intestinal NET (siNET) are slow growing, they have a relatively high rate of metastasizing to the liver, leading to substantially worse outcomes. In many solid tumours, the outcome is determined by the quality of the antitumour immune response. However, the quality and significance of antitumour responses in NETs are incompletely understood. This study provides clinico-pathological analyses of the tumour immune microenvironment in PanNET and siNETs. METHODS: Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue from consecutive resected PanNETs (61) and siNETs (131) was used to construct tissue microarrays (TMAs); 1-mm cores were taken from the tumour centre, stroma, tumour edge, and adjacent healthy tissue. TMAs were stained with antibodies against CD8, CD4, CD68, FoxP3, CD20, and NCR1. T-cell counts were compared with counts from lung cancers. RESULTS: For PanNET, median counts were CD8+ 35.4 cells/mm2, CD4+ 7.6 cells/mm2, and CD68+ macrophages 117.7 cells/mm2. For siNET, there were CD8+ 39.2 cells/mm2, CD4+ 24.1 cells/mm2, and CD68+ 139.2 cells/mm2. The CD8+ cell density in the tumour and liver metastases were significantly lower than in the adjacent normal tissues, without evidence of a cell-rich area at the tumour edge that might have suggested immune exclusion. T-cell counts in lung cancer were significantly higher than those in PanNET and siNETs: CD8+ 541 cells/mm2 and CD4+ 861 cells/mm2 (p ≤ 0.0001). CONCLUSION: PanNETs and siNETs are immune cold with no evidence of T cell exclusion; the low density of immune infiltrates indicates poor antitumour immune responses.

Worldwide time trends in prevalence of symptoms of rhinoconjunctivitis in children: Global Asthma Network Phase I.

BACKGROUND: The Global Asthma Network (GAN), by using the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) methodology, has updated trends in prevalence of symptoms of childhood allergic diseases, including non-infective rhinitis and conjunctivitis ('rhinoconjunctivitis'), which is reported here. METHODS: Prevalence and severity of rhinoconjunctivitis were assessed by questionnaire among schoolchildren in GAN Phase I and ISAAC Phase I and III surveys 15-23 years apart. Absolute rates of change in prevalence were estimated for each centre and modelled by multi-level linear regression to compare trends by age group, time period and per capita national income. RESULTS: Twenty-seven GAN centres in 14 countries surveyed 74,361 13- to 14-year-olds ('adolescents') and 45,434 6- to 7-year-olds ('children'), with average response proportions of 90% and 79%, respectively. Many centres showed highly significant (p < .001) changes in prevalence of rhinoconjunctivitis in the past year ('current rhinoconjunctivitis') compared with ISAAC. The direction and magnitude of centre-level trends varied significantly (p < .001) both within and between countries. Overall, current rhinoconjunctivitis prevalence decreased slightly from ISAAC Phase III to GAN: -1.32% per 10 years, 95% CI [-2.93%, +0.30%] among adolescents; and -0.44% [-1.29%, +0.42%] among children. Together, these differed significantly (p < .001) from the upward trend within ISAAC. Among adolescents, centre-level trends in current rhinoconjunctivitis were highly correlated with those for eczema symptoms (rho = 0.72, p < .0001) but not with centre-level trends in asthma symptoms (rho = 0.15, p = .48). Among children, these correlations were positive but not significant. CONCLUSION: Symptoms of non-infective rhinoconjunctivitis among schoolchildren may no longer be on the increase globally, although trends vary substantially within and between countries.

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 among children with asthma: evidence from Global Asthma Network.

BACKGROUND: Clinical presentations of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among children with asthma have rarely been investigated. This study aimed to assess clinical manifestations and outcome of COVID-19 among children with asthma, and whether the use of asthma medications was associated with outcomes of interest. METHODS: The Global Asthma Network (GAN) conducted a global survey among GAN centers. Data collection was between November 2020 and April 2021. RESULTS: Fourteen GAN centers from 10 countries provided data on 169 children with asthma infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). COVID-19 was asymptomatic in 58 (34.3%), mild in 93 (55.0%), moderate in 14 (8.3%), and severe/critical in 4 (2.4%). Thirty-eight (22.5%) patients had exacerbation of asthma and 21 (12.4%) were hospitalized for a median of 7 days (interquartile range 3-16). Those who had moderate or more severe COVID-19 were significantly more likely to have exacerbation of asthma as compared to those who were asymptomatic or had mild COVID-19 (adjusted odds ratio (adjOR) 3.97, 95% CI 1.23-12.84). Those who used inhaled bronchodilators were significantly more likely to have a change of asthma medications (adjOR 2.39, 95% CI 1.02-5.63) compared to those who did not. Children who used inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) did not differ from those who did not use ICS with regard to being symptomatic, severity of COVID-19, asthma exacerbation, and hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Over dependence on inhaled bronchodilator may be inappropriate. Use of ICS may be safe and should be continued in children with asthma during the pandemic of COVID-19.