Risk Prediction Score for HIV Infection: Development and Internal Validation with Cross-Sectional Data from Men Who Have Sex with Men in China.

Receptive anal intercourse, multiple partners, condomless sex, sexually transmitted infections (STIs), and drug/alcohol addiction are familiar factors that correlate with increased human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk among men who have sex with men (MSM). To improve estimation to HIV acquisition, we created a composite score using questions from routine survey of 3588 MSM in Beijing, China. The HIV prevalence was 13.4%. A risk scoring tool using penalized maximum likelihood multivariable logistic regression modeling was developed, deploying backward step-down variable selection to obtain a reduced-form model. The full penalized model included 19 sexual predictors, while the reduced-form model had 12 predictors. Both models calibrated well; bootstrap-corrected c-indices were 0.70 (full model) and 0.71 (reduced-form model). Non-Beijing residence, short-term living in Beijing, illegal drug use, multiple male sexual partners, receptive anal sex, inconsistent condom use, alcohol consumption before sex, and syphilis infection were the strongest predictors of HIV infection. Discriminating higher-risk MSM for targeted HIV prevention programming using a validated risk score could improve the efficiency of resource deployment for educational and risk reduction programs. A valid risk score can also identify higher risk persons into prevention and vaccine clinical trials, which would improve trial cost-efficiency.

Medical utilization surrounding initial opioid-related diagnoses by coding method.

OBJECTIVES: To identify methods for coding initial opioid-related disorder (ORD) diagnoses in administrative claims and determine whether coding methods correspond to acute medical utilization patterns. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of Blue Health Intelligence commercial data. METHODS: We included members with 2 years of continuous coverage around the first appearance of an ORD diagnosis code (initial ORD) in medical or pharmacy claims with dates of service between October 2015 and March 2016. Initial ORD was identified by International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) F11 codes or buprenorphine for medication-assisted treatment (BUP-MAT) with a duration of 3 or more days. Descriptive analyses were evaluated prediagnosis, in the month of diagnosis, and post diagnosis and included mean cost per member per month (PMPM); mean monthly percentage of members with at least 1 opioid agonist prescription (OAP), inpatient visit, or emergency department (ED) visit; and percentage of members with at least 1 ICD-10-CM Z79.891 code (long-term [current] use of opiate analgesic). RESULTS: A total of 6426 initial ORD diagnoses were identified by F11.20 (65.2%), F11.x (28.7%), and BUP-MAT (6.1%). PMPM costs for BUP-MAT ($2054) were lower than for F11.20 ($5053) and F11.x ($6597) in the diagnosis month. Mean monthly percentage of members with at least 1 OAP declined from pre- to post initial ORD diagnosis (F11.20, 52.5% to 50.0%; F11.x, 44.1% to 37.9%; BUP-MAT, 34.0% to 12.7%). Members with initial ORD coded as F11.x had the highest mean percentage with at least 1 inpatient or ED visit in the diagnosis month (30.9% and 26.8%, respectively) versus F11.20 (19.3% and 10.8%) and BUP-MAT (5.1% and 3.5%). Percentage of members with at least 1 Z79.891 code was higher post diagnosis than in the month of diagnosis (F11.20, 34.6% vs 25.7%; F11.x, 16.5% vs 8.1%; BUP-MAT, 19.5% vs 8.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Medical utilization patterns of members with ORD differ by the coding method used to document their initial diagnosis in administrative claims.

Monitoring Pharmacy and Test Kit Stocks in Rural Mozambique: U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief Surveillance to Help Prevent Ministry of Health Shortages.

Support of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis (TB) testing and treatment supported by President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) in Africa requires immense quantities of tests and medications. We sought to use central pharmacy supply data of Mozambique's rural Zambézia Province (2017 population ≈5.11 million persons; ≈12.6% adult HIV prevalence in 2016) to examine shortages, stockouts, and trends in availability. Using stock surveillance for 60 weeks in 2014-2015, we assessed availability of 36 medications [4 classes: adult antiretroviral (ARV) medications, pediatric ARVs, anti-TB medications, and antibiotics] and diagnostic test kits (2 rapid tests for HIV; 1 each for malaria and syphilis). We contrasted these to 2018-2019 data. We modeled pharmacy data using ordinal logistic regression, characterizing weekly product availability in four categories: good, adequate, shortage, or complete stockout. We found 166 (7.7%) stockouts and 150 (6.9%) shortages among 2,160 weekly records. Earlier calendar time was associated with reduced medication supplies (p < .001). Certain medication/test kit classes were associated with reduced supply (p < .001). We found an interaction between time and medication class on the odds of reduced supply (p < .001). Pediatric ARVs had a 17.4 (95% confidence interval: 8.8-34.4) times higher odds of reduced medication supply compared with adult ARVs at study midpoint. Trends comparing the first and last weeks showed adult ARVs having 67% and pediatric having 71% lower odds of reduced supplies. Only adult ARV shortages improved amid growing demand. Data from 2018 to 2019 suggest continuing inventory management challenges. Monitoring of drug (especially pediatric) and test kit shortages is vital to ensure quality improvement to guarantee adequate supplies to enable patients and care providers to achieve sustained viral suppression. A central Mozambican drug repository in the nation's second largest Province continues to experience drug and rapid test kit stockouts.

Hazardous alcohol use among female heads-of-household in rural Mozambique.

Hazardous drinking places individuals at risk for adverse health events, resulting in a major public health burden globally. Patterns of alcohol consumption among women in Africa remain poorly understood. We aimed to describe alcohol consumption in a representative sample of female heads-of-household in Mozambique. A 2014 population-based cross-sectional study of 3892 heads-of-household was conducted in Zambézia Province. Data on alcohol use were collected using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). Sociodemographic characteristics were summarized by alcohol use. A multivariable proportional odds model adjusted for age, education, Portuguese fluency, marital status, income, social support, depression, food insecurity, currently pregnant, and child mortality was used for the ordinal AUDIT scale as outcomes with robust covariance to account for clustering of respondents. The overall prevalence of current alcohol consumption among female heads-of-household was 15%. The mean PHQ-8 score was 2.7 (SD 4.7). The prevalence of women considered "hazardous drinkers" (score >4) was 8%. In bivariate analyses, depression, marital status, currently being pregnant, food insecurity, and death of a child were associated with higher risk of hazardous drinking. After adjusting for multiple characteristics, depression (aOR: 2.20 [1.28, 3.76] p = 0.004), death of a child (aOR: 2.44 [1.46, 4.07] p = 0.001), and being currently pregnant (aOR: 1.83 [0.99, 3.39] p = 0.002) were associated with hazardous drinking behavior. Being single (aOR: 0.48 [0.29, 0.80], p = 0.017) and food insecure (aOR: 0.96 [0.92, 1.00], p = 0.050) showed a protective effect on hazardous drinking behavior. The percentage of female heads-of-household in north-central Mozambique that regularly drink alcohol was lower than expected. This may be due to the unique characteristics of female heads-of-household and the extreme poverty pervasive in Zambézia.