Atrial cardiomyopathy: Diagnosis, clinical implications and unresolved issues in anticoagulation therapy.

Atrial cardiomyopathy (AC) is an evolving pathophysiological entity that has expanded our understanding regarding the atrium and its role in arrhythmogenesis and cardiac thromboembolism. The pathological myocardium in AC promotes arrhythmogenesis through mechanical dysfunction (hypocontractility, fibrosis), adverse alterations of the endothelium and secretion of prothrombotic factors (IL-6, IL-8, TNF-a). 'Red flags', indicative of AC, can be recognized either non-invasively by electrocardiography, echocardiography and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging or invasively by high-density electroanatomical mapping as low bipolar voltage areas of the affected myocardium. Signs of AC have been strongly associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke, even embolic strokes of undetermined source, regardless of the coexistence of atrial fibrillation (AF). The underlying existence of AC has been negatively correlated with the success rate of catheter ablation of AF. The clinical value of AC is the provision of a novel pathway regarding the potential mechanisms of cerebrovascular events of cardiac thromboembolic origin. In addition, AC may serve as a risk stratification tool to predict the long-term responders of AF catheter ablation.

Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source and Patent Foramen Ovale: Risk of Paradoxical Embolism Score Validation and Atrial Fibrillation Prediction.

Background and Purpose: The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) score stratifies patients with stroke according to the probability of having a patent foramen ovale (PFO), which (through Bayes theorem and simple assumptions) can be used to estimate the probability that a PFO is pathogenic in a given subgroup of patients with specific features (ie, a given RoPE score value): a higher PFO prevalence corresponds to a higher probability that a PFO is pathogenic. Among alternative mechanisms in embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS), the actual stroke cause may be covert atrial fibrillation. We aimed to validate the RoPE score in a large ESUS population and investigate the rate of stroke recurrence and new incident atrial fibrillation during follow-up according to PFO status and RoPE score. Methods: We pooled data of consecutive patients with ESUS from 3 prospective stroke registries. We assessed RoPE score's calibration and discrimination for the presence of PFO (and consequently for the probability that it is pathogenic). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with PFO. Results: Among 455 patients with ESUS (median age 59 years), 184 (40%) had PFO. The RoPE score's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.75. In addition to RoPE score variables, absence of left ventricular hypertrophy, absence of atherosclerosis, and infratentorial lesions were independently associated with PFO. In patients with PFO and RoPE 7 to 10, PFO and RoPE 0 to 6, and without PFO, new incident atrial fibrillation rate was 3.1%, 20.5%, and 31.8%, respectively (log-rank test=6.28, P=0.04). Stroke recurrences in patients with likely pathogenic PFO were not statistically different from other patients. Conclusions: This multicenter study validates the RoPE score to predict the presence/absence of PFO in patients with ESUS, which strongly suggests that RoPE score is helpful in identifying patients with ESUS with pathogenic versus incidental PFOs. Left ventricular hypertrophy, atherosclerosis, and infratentorial stroke may further improve the score. Low RoPE scores were associated with more incidental atrial fibrillation during 10-year follow-up.

Carotid Atherosclerosis and Patent Foramen Ovale in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source.

BACKGROUND: Carotid atherosclerosis and likely pathogenic patent foramen ovale (PFO) are two potential embolic sources in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). The relationship between these two mechanisms among ESUS patients remains unclear. AIM: To investigate the relation between carotid atherosclerosis and likely pathogenic PFO in patients with ESUS. We hypothesized that ipsilateral carotid atherosclerotic plaques are less prevalent in ESUS with likely pathogenic PFO compared to patients with likely incidental PFO or without PFO. METHODS: The presence of PFO was assessed with transthoracic echocardiography with microbubble test and, when deemed necessary, through trans-oesophageal echocardiography. The presence of PFO was considered as likely incidental if the RoPE (Risk of Paradoxical Embolism) score was 0-6 and likely pathogenic if 7-10. RESULTS: Among 374 ESUS patients (median age: 61years, 40.4% women), there were 63 (49.6%) with likely incidental PFO, 64 (50.4%) with likely pathogenic PFO and 165 (44.1%) with ipsilateral carotid atherosclerosis. The prevalence of ipsilateral carotid atherosclerosis was lower in patients with likely pathogenic PFO (7.8%) compared to patients with likely incidental PFO (46.0%) or patients without PFO (53.0%) (p<0.001). After adjustment for multiple confounders, the prevalence of ipsilateral carotid atherosclerosis remained lower in patients with likely pathogenic PFO compared to patients with likely incidental PFO or without PFO (adjusted OR=0.32, 95%CI:0.104-0.994, p=0.049). CONCLUSIONS: The presence of carotid atherosclerosis is inversely related to the presence of likely pathogenic PFO in patients with ESUS.

External Performance of the HAVOC Score for the Prediction of New Incident Atrial Fibrillation.

Background and Purpose- The HAVOC score (hypertension, age, valvular heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, obesity, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease) was proposed for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) after cryptogenic stroke. It showed good model discrimination (area under the curve, 0.77). Only 2.5% of patients with a low-risk HAVOC score (ie, 0-4) were diagnosed with new incident AF. We aimed to assess its performance in an external cohort of patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source. Methods- In the AF-embolic stroke of undetermined source dataset, we assessed the discriminatory power, calibration, specificity, negative predictive value, and accuracy of the HAVOC score to predict new incident AF. Patients with a HAVOC score of 0 to 4 were considered as low-risk, as proposed in its original publication. Results- In 658 embolic stroke of undetermined source patients (median age, 67 years; 44% women), the median HAVOC score was 2 (interquartile range, 3). There were 540 (82%) patients with a HAVOC score of 0 to 4 and 118 (18%) with a score of ≥5. New incident AF was diagnosed in 95 (14.4%) patients (28.8% among patients with HAVOC score ≥5 and 11.3% among patients with HAVOC score 0-4 [age- and sex-adjusted odds ratio, 2.29 (95% CI, 1.37-3.82)]). The specificity of low-risk HAVOC score to identify patients without new incident AF was 88.7%. The negative predictive value of low-risk HAVOC score was 85.1%. The accuracy was 78.0%, and the area under the curve was 68.7% (95% CI, 62.1%-73.3%). Conclusions- The previously reported low rate of AF among embolic stroke of undetermined source patients with low-risk HAVOC score was not confirmed in our cohort. Further assessment of the HAVOC score is warranted before it is routinely implemented in clinical practice.

Supraventricular Extrasystoles on Standard 12-lead Electrocardiogram Predict New Incident Atrial Fibrillation after Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source: The AF-ESUS Study.

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of covert atrial fibrillation (AF) remains a major challenge to guide secondary prevention of patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). AIMS: We analyzed consecutive ESUS patients from 3 prospective stroke registries to assess whether the presence of supraventricular extrasystoles (SVE) on standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) is associated with the detection of AF (primary outcome), stroke recurrence and death (secondary outcomes) during follow-up. METHODS: We measured the number of SVEs in all available ECGs of patients hospitalized for ESUS. Multivariate stepwise regression with forward selection of covariates assessed the association between SVE (classified in 4 groups according to their number per 10 seconds of ECG: no SVE, >0-1SVEs, >1-2SVEs, and >2SVEs) and outcomes during follow-up. The Kaplan-Meier product limit method estimated the 10-year cumulative probabilities of outcomes in each SVE group. We calculated the negative prognostic value (NPV) of the presence of any SVE to predict new AF, defined as the probability that AF will not be detected during follow-up if there is no SVE. RESULTS: Among 853 ESUS patients followed for 2857 patient-years (median age: 67 years, 43.0% women), 226 (26.5%) patients had at least 1 SVE at the standard 12-lead ECGs performed during hospitalization. AF was detected in 125 (14.7%) of patients in the overall population during follow-up: 8.9%, 22.5%, 28.1%, and 48.3% in patients with no SVE, greater than 0-1SVE, greater than 1-2SVE and greater than 2SVE respectively. In multivariate regression analysis, compared to patients with no SVEs, the corresponding hazard-ratios were 1.80 [95% confidence intervals (95%CI):1.06-3.05], 2.26 (95%CI:1.28-4.01) and 3.19 (95%CI:1.93-5.27). The NPV of the presence of any SVE for the prediction of new AF was 91.4%. There was no statistically significant association of SVE with the risk of ischemic stroke recurrence and death. CONCLUSIONS: In ESUS patients without SVEs during hospitalization, the probability that AF will not be detected during a follow-up of 3.4 years is more than 91%.

Antithrombotic Treatment in Cryptogenic Stroke Patients With Patent Foramen Ovale: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background and Purpose- It is unclear whether treatment with anticoagulants or antiplatelets is the optimal strategy in patients with stroke or transient ischemic attack of undetermined cause and patent foramen ovale that is not percutaneously closed. We aimed to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials to compare anticoagulant or antiplatelet treatment in this population. Methods- We searched PubMed until July 16, 2019 for trials comparing anticoagulants and antiplatelet treatment in patients with stroke/transient ischemic attack and medically treated patent foramen ovale using the terms: "cryptogenic or embolic stroke of undetermined source" and "stroke or cerebrovascular accident or transient ischemic attack" and "patent foramen ovale or patent foramen ovale or paradoxical embolism" and "trial or study" and "antithrombotic or anticoagulant or antiplatelet." The outcomes assessed were stroke recurrence, major bleeding, and the composite end point of stroke recurrence or major bleeding. We used 3 random-effects models: (1) a reference model based on the inverse variance method with the Sidik and Jonkman heterogeneity estimator; (2) a strict model, implementing the Hartung and Knapp method; and (3) a commonly used Bayesian model with a prior that assumes moderate to large between-study variance. Results- Among 112 articles identified in the literature search, 5 randomized controlled trials were included in the meta-analysis (1720 patients, mean follow-up 2.3±0.5 years). Stroke recurrence occurred at a rate of 1.73 per 100 patient-years in anticoagulant-assigned patients and 2.39 in antiplatelet-assigned patients (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.32-1.48 for the Sidik and Jonkman estimator). Major bleeding occurred at a rate of 1.16 per 100 patient-years in anticoagulant-assigned patients and 0.68 in antiplatelet-assigned patients (hazard ratio, 1.61; 95% CI, 0.72-3.59 for the Sidik and Jonkman estimator). The composite outcome occurred in 52 anticoagulant-assigned and 54 antiplatelet-assigned patients (odds ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.65-1.70 for the Sidik and Jonkman estimator). Conclusions- We cannot exclude a large reduction of stroke recurrence in anticoagulant-assigned patients compared with antiplatelet-assigned, without significant differences in major bleeding. An adequately powered randomized controlled trial of a non-vitamin K antagonist versus aspirin is warranted.

Renal Function and Risk Stratification of Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source.

Background and Purpose- We aimed to assess if renal function can aid in risk stratification for ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) recurrence and death in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). Methods- We pooled 12 ESUS datasets from Europe and America. Renal function was evaluated using the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and analyzed in continuous, binary, and categorical way. Cox-regression analyses assessed if renal function was independently associated with the risk for ischemic stroke/TIA recurrence and death. The Kaplan-Meier product limit method estimated the cumulative probability of ischemic stroke/TIA recurrence and death. Results- In 1530 patients with ESUS followed for 3260 patient-years, there were 237 recurrences (15.9%) and 201 deaths (13.4%), corresponding to 7.3 ischemic stroke/TIA recurrences and 5.6 deaths per 100 patient-years, respectively. Renal function was not associated with the risk for ischemic stroke/TIA recurrence when forced into the final multivariate model, regardless if it was analyzed as continuous (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.99-1.00 for every 1 mL/min), binary (hazard ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 0.87-1.73) or categorical covariate (likelihood-ratio test 2.59, P=0.63 for stroke recurrence). The probability of ischemic stroke/TIA recurrence across stages of renal function was 11.9% for eGFR ≥90, 16.6% for eGFR 60-89, 21.7% for eGFR 45-59, 19.2% for eGFR 30-44, and 24.9% for eGFR <30 (likelihood-ratio test 2.59, P=0.63). The results were similar for the outcome of death. Conclusions- The present study is the largest pooled individual patient-level ESUS dataset, and does not provide evidence that renal function can be used to stratify the risk of ischemic stroke/TIA recurrence or death in patients with ESUS.

Poor stroke risk perception despite moderate public stroke awareness: insight from a cross-sectional national survey in Greece.

BACKGROUND: Although stroke is the fourth cause of death in Western societies, public stroke awareness remains suboptimal. The aim of this study was to estimate stroke risk perception and stroke awareness in Greece through a cross-sectional telephone survey. METHODS: A trained interview team conducted this cross-sectional telephone survey between February and April 2014 using an online structured questionnaire. Participants were selected using random digit dialing of landline and mobile telephone numbers with quota sampling weighted for geographical region based on the most recent General Population Census (2011). RESULTS: Between February and April 2014, 723 individuals (418 women [58%], 47.4 ± 17.8 years) agreed to respond. Among all respondents, 642 (88.8%) were able to provide at least 1 stroke risk factor; 673 respondents (93.08%) were able to provide correctly at least 1 stroke symptom or sign. When asked what would they do in case of acute onset of stroke symptoms, 497 (68.7%) responded that they would either call the ambulance or visit the closest emergency department. Only 35.3%, 18.9%, 17.2%, 20.7%, and 15.0% of respondents with atrial fibrillation, arterial hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, and current smoking, respectively, considered themselves as being in high risk for stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Stroke risk perception in Greece is low despite moderate public stroke awareness.

Caseous calcification of the mitral annulus presenting as recurrent strokes.

Although caseous calcification of the mitral annulus is usually diagnosed incidentally, it can cause embolic complications. The current report describes the case of caseous calcification revealed by recurrent episodes of stroke in a 64-year-old female patient. After her last ischemic episode, cerebral magnetic resonance imaging confirmed the presence of a thrombus in the right middle cerebral artery. Transthoracic echocardiogram revealed calcification of the mitral annulus and an echo-dense mass with mobile borders fixed posteriorly. Transesophageal echocardiogram allowed better evaluation of the lesion. A medical approach was preferred, with no recurrence thereafter. Learning objective: Caseous calcification of the mitral annulus is a rare form of mitral annular calcification which is associated with high risk of strokes.Medical management with optimal anticoagulation can be effective over long-term follow up.

Risk Stratification Tools to Guide a Personalized Approach for Cardiac Monitoring in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source.

Current recommendations support a personalized sequential approach for cardiac rhythm monitoring to detect atrial fibrillation after embolic stroke of undetermined source. Several risk stratification scores have been proposed to predict the likelihood of atrial fibrillation after embolic stroke of undetermined source. This systematic review aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the field by identifying risk scores proposed for this purpose, assessing their characteristics and the cohorts in which they were developed and validated, and scrutinizing their predictive performance. We identified 11 risk scores, of which 4 were externally validated. The most frequent variables included were echocardiographic markers and demographics. The areas under the curve ranged between 0.70 and 0.94. The 3 scores with the highest area under the curve were the Decryptoring (0.94 [95% CI, 0.88-1.00]), newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (0.87 [95% CI, 0.79-0.94]), and AF-ESUS (Atrial Fibrillation in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source) (0.85 [95% CI, 0.80-0.87]), of which only the latter was externally validated. Risk stratification scores can guide a personalized approach for cardiac rhythm monitoring after embolic stroke of undetermined source.

Statin treatment and outcomes after embolic stroke of undetermined source.

The association of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol lowering with outcomes in embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) patients is unclear. In these patients we aimed to assess the effect of statin on stroke recurrence, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and death rates. Consecutive ESUS patients in the Athens Stroke Registry were prospectively followed-up to 10 years for stroke recurrence, MACE, and death. The Nelson-Aalen estimator was used to estimate the cumulative probability by statin allocation at discharge and cox-regression analyses to investigate whether statin at discharge was a predictor of outcomes. Among 264 ESUS patients who were discharged and followed for 4 years, 89 (33.7%) were treated with statin at discharge. Patients who were discharged on statin had lower rates of stroke recurrence (3.58 vs. 7.23/100 patient-years, HR: 0.48; 95% CI 0.26-0.90), MACE (4.98 vs. 9.89/100 patient-years, HR: 0.49; 95% CI 0.29-0.85), and death (3.93 vs. 8.21/100 patient-years, HR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.28-0.89). In the multivariate analysis, statin treatment at discharge was an independent predictor of stroke recurrence (adjusted HR: 0.48; 95% CI 0.26-0.91), MACE (adjusted HR: 0.48; 95% CI 0.28-0.82), and death (adjusted HR: 0.50; 95% CI 0.27-0.93). Patients with ESUS discharged on statins have lower rates of stroke recurrence, MACE, and death compared to those not receiving statin therapy.

Atrial High-Rate Episode Duration Thresholds and Thromboembolic Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background Available evidence supports an association between atrial high-rate episode (AHRE) burden and thromboembolic risk, but the necessary extent and duration of AHREs to increase the thromboembolic risk remain to be defined. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to identify the thromboembolic risk associated with various AHRE thresholds. Methods and Results We searched PubMed and Scopus until January 9, 2020, for literature reporting AHRE duration and thromboembolic risk in patients with implantable electronic devices. The outcome assessed was stroke or systemic embolism. Risk estimates were reported as hazard ratio (HR) or relative risk alongside 95% CIs. We used the Paule-Mandel estimator, and heterogeneity was calculated with I2 index. Among 27 studies including 61 919 patients, 23 studies reported rates according to the duration of the longest AHRE and 4 studies reported rates according to the cumulative day-level AHRE duration. In patients with cardiac implantable devices, AHREs lasting ≥30 seconds significantly increased the risk of stroke or systemic embolism (HR, 4.41; 95% CI, 2.32-8.39; I2, 5.5%), which remained consistent for the thresholds of 5 minutes and 6 and 24 hours. Patients with previous stroke or transient ischemic attack and AHREs lasting ≥2 minutes had a marginally increased risk of recurrent stroke or transient ischemic attack. The risk of stroke or systemic embolism was higher in patients with cumulative AHRE ≥24 hours compared with those of shorter duration or no AHRE (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.04-1.52; I2, 0%). Conclusions This systematic review and meta-analysis suggests that single AHRE episodes ≥30 seconds and cumulative AHRE duration ≥24 hours are associated with increased risk of stroke or systemic embolism.

Atrial Cardiopathy and Likely Pathogenic Patent Foramen Ovale in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source.

BACKGROUND: Atrial cardiopathy and likely pathogenic patent foramen ovale (PFO) are two potential embolic sources in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). The relationship between these two mechanisms among ESUS patients remains unclear. METHODS: Atrial cardiopathy was defined as increased left atrial diameter index (> 23 mm/m2) or left atrial volume index (> 34 mL/m2), or PR prolongation (≥ 200 ms), or presence of supraventricular extrasystoles in the electrocardiograms performed during hospitalization for the index stoke. The presence of PFO was assessed by transthoracic echocardiography with microbubble test or by transesophageal echocardiography. The presence of PFO was considered as likely pathogenic if the Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score was 7 to 10. RESULTS: Among 367 ESUS patients with available information about the presence of PFO and the presence of atrial cardiopathy (median age: 61 years, 40.6% women), likely pathogenic PFO was diagnosed in 62 (16.9%) and atrial cardiopathy in 122 (33.2%). Only 4 patients (1.1%) had both likely pathogenic PFO and atrial cardiopathy. The prevalence of atrial cardiopathy was lower in patients with likely pathogenic PFO (6.5%) compared with patients with likely incidental PFO (31.2%) or without PFO (40.6%) (Pearson's chi-square test: 26.08, p < 0.001; adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 0.28, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.09-0.86). The prevalence of likely pathogenic PFO was lower in patients with atrial cardiopathy compared with patients without atrial cardiopathy (3.3% vs. 23.7%, respectively [Pearson's chi-square test: 24.13, p < 0.001; adjusted OR: 0.2, 95% CI: 0.02-0.6]). CONCLUSION: The presence of atrial cardiopathy is inversely related to the presence of likely pathogenic PFO in patients with ESUS.

Identification of patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source and low risk of new incident atrial fibrillation: The AF-ESUS score.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Only a minority of patients with Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source (ESUS) receive prolonged cardiac monitoring despite current recommendations. The identification of ESUS patients who have low probability of new diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF) could potentially support a strategy of more individualized allocation of available resources and hence, increase their diagnostic yield. We aimed to develop a tool that can identify ESUS patients who have low probability of new incident AF. METHODS: We performed multivariate stepwise regression in a pooled dataset of consecutive ESUS patients from three prospective stroke registries to identify predictors of new incident AF. The coefficient of each independent covariate of the fitted multivariable model was used to generate an integer-based point scoring system. RESULTS: Among 839 patients (43.1% women, median age 67.0 years) followed-up for a median of 24.3 months (2999 patient-years), 125 (14.9%) had new incident AF. The proposed score assigns 3 points for age ≥ 60 years; 2 points for hypertension; -1 point for left ventricular hypertrophy reported at echocardiography; 2 points for left atrial diameter >40 mm; -3 points for left ventricular ejection fraction <35%; 1 point for the presence of any supraventricular extrasystole recorded during all available 12-lead standard electrocardiograms performed during hospitalization for the ESUS; -2 points for subcortical infarct; -3 points for the presence of non-stenotic carotid plaques. The rate of new incident AF during follow-up was 1.97% among the 42.3% of the cohort who had a score of ≤0, compared to 26.9% in patients with > 0 (relative risk: 13.7, 95%CI: 5.9--31.5). The area under the curve of the score was 84.8% (95%CI: 79.9--86.9%). The sensitivity and negative predictive value of a score of ≤0 for new incident AF during follow-up were 94.9% (95%CI: 89.3--98.1%) and 98.0% (95%CI: 95.8--99.3%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed AF-ESUS score has high sensitivity and high negative predictive value to identify ESUS patients who have low probability of new incident AF. Patients with a score of 1 or more may be better candidates for prolonged automated cardiac monitoring. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ Unique identifier: NCT02766205.

Characteristics and outcomes of Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source according to stroke severity.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with embolic strokes of undetermined source (ESUS) usually present with mild symptoms. We aimed to compare the baseline characteristics between mild and severe ESUS, identify predictors for severe ESUS, and assess outcomes of patients with severe ESUS. METHODS: In the AF-ESUS (AF-ESUS) dataset, we stratified ESUS severity using the median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score on admission as cut-off. We performed multivariable stepwise regression analyses to identify independent predictors of severe ESUS and to assess the association between ESUS severity and stroke recurrence, death, and new incident atrial fibrillation (AF) on follow-up. The 10-year cumulative probabilities of outcome incidence were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. RESULTS: In 772 patients (median NIHSS: 6 (interquartile range: 3-12)), 414 (53.6%) patients had severe ESUS (i.e. NIHSS ≥6). Female sex was the only independent predictor for severe ESUS (odds ratio: 1.72 (1.27-2.33)). The rates of recurrence (3.3%/year vs. 3.4%/year, adjusted-hazard ratio: 1.09 (0.73-1.62)) and new incident AF (13.5% vs. 17.0%, adjusted odds ratio: 0.67 (0.44-1.03)) were similar between severe and mild ESUS, but mortality was higher (5.4%/year vs. 3.7%/year, adjusted-hazard ratio: 1.51 (1.05-2.16)) in severe ESUS. The 10-year cumulative probability for stroke recurrence was similar between severe and mild ESUS (38.1% (29.2-48.6) vs. 36.6% (27.8-47.0), log-rank test: 0.01, p = 0.920). The 10-year cumulative probability of death was higher in patients with severe ESUS compared with mild ESUS (40.5% (32.5-50.0) vs. 34.0% (26.0-43.6) respectively; log-rank test: 4.54, p = 0.033). CONCLUSIONS: Women have more severe ESUS compared with men. Patients with severe ESUS have similar rates of stroke recurrence and new incident AF, but higher mortality compared with mild ESUS.

Left atrial diameter thresholds and new incident atrial fibrillation in embolic stroke of undetermined source.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We analyzed consecutive patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) from three prospective stroke registries to compare the prognostic performance of different LAD thresholds for the prediction of new incident AF. METHODS: We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive prognostic value (PPV), negative prognostic value (NPV) and Youden's J-statistic of different LAD thresholds to predict new incident AF. We performed multivariate stepwise regression with forward selection of covariates to assess the association between the LAD threshold with the highest Youden's J-statistic and AF detection. RESULTS: Among 675 patients followed for 2437 patient-years, the mean LAD was 38.5 ± 6.8 mm. New incident AF was diagnosed in 115 (17.0%) patients. The LAD threshold of 40mm yielded the highest Youden's J-statistic of 0.35 with sensitivity 0.69, specificity 0.66, PPV 0.27 and NPV 0.92. The likelihood of new incident AF was nearly twice in patients with LAD > 40 mm compared to LAD ≤ 40 mm (HR:1.92, 95%CI:1.24-2.97, p = 0.004). The 10-year cumulative probability of new incident AF was higher in patients with LAD>40 mm compared to LAD ≤ 40 mm (53.5% and 22.4% respectively, log-rank-test: 28.2, p < 0.001). The annualized rate of stroke recurrence of 4.0% in the overall population did not differ significantly in patient above vs. below this LAD threshold (HR:0.96, 95%CI:0.62-1.48, p = 0.85). CONCLUSIONS: The LAD threshold of 40 mm has the best prognostic performance among other LAD values to predict new incident AF after ESUS. The diagnostic yield of prolonged cardiac rhythm monitoring in patients with LAD ≤ 40 mm seems low; therefore, such patients may have lower priority for prolonged cardiac monitoring.

Carotid plaques and detection of atrial fibrillation in embolic stroke of undetermined source.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between the presence of ipsilateral nonstenotic carotid plaques and the rate of detection of atrial fibrillation (AF) during follow-up in patients with embolic strokes of undetermined source (ESUS). METHODS: We pooled data of all consecutive ESUS patients from 3 prospective stroke registries. Multivariate stepwise regression assessed the association between the presence of nonstenotic carotid plaques and AF detection. The 10-year cumulative probabilities of AF detection were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. RESULTS: Among 777 patients followed for 2,642 patient-years, 341 (38.6%) patients had an ipsilateral nonstenotic carotid plaque. AF was detected in 112 (14.4%) patients in the overall population during follow-up. The overall rate of AF detection was 8.5% in patients with nonstenotic carotid plaques (2.9% per 100 patient-years) and 19.0% in patients without (5.0% per 100 patient-years) (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.37-0.84). The presence of ipsilateral nonstenotic carotid plaques was associated with lower probability for AF detection (adjusted HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.34-0.96, p = 0.03). The 10-year cumulative probability of AF detection was lower in patients with ipsilateral nonstenotic carotid plaques compared to those without (34.5%, 95% CI 21.8-47.2 vs 49.0%, 95% CI 40.4-57.6 respectively, log-rank-test: 11.8, p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: AF is less frequently detected in ESUS patients with nonstenotic carotid plaques compared to those without. CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER: NCT02766205.

Prevalence and Overlap of Potential Embolic Sources in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source.

Background We aimed to assess the prevalence and degree of overlap of potential embolic sources (PES) in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). Methods and Results In a pooled data set derived from 3 prospective stroke registries, patients were categorized in ≥1 groups according to the PES that was/were identified. We categorized PES as follows: atrial cardiopathy, atrial fibrillation diagnosed during follow-up, arterial disease, left ventricular disease, cardiac valvular disease, patent foramen ovale, and cancer. In 800 patients with ESUS (43.1% women; median age, 67.0 years), 3 most prevalent PES were left ventricular disease, arterial disease, and atrial cardiopathy, which were present in 54.4%, 48.5%, and 45.0% of patients, respectively. Most patients (65.5%) had >1 PES, whereas only 29.7% and 4.8% of patients had a single or no PES, respectively. In 31.1% of patients, there were ≥3 PES present. On average, each patient had 2 PES (median, 2). During a median follow-up of 3.7 years, stroke recurrence occurred in 101 (12.6%) of patients (23.3 recurrences per 100 patient-years). In multivariate analysis, the risk of stroke recurrence was higher in the atrial fibrillation group compared with other PES, but not statistically different between patients with 0 to 1, 2, or ≥3 PES. Conclusions There is major overlap of PES in patients with ESUS. This may possibly explain the negative results of the recent large randomized controlled trials of secondary prevention in patients with ESUS and offer a rationale for a randomized controlled trial of combination of anticoagulation and aspirin for the prevention of stroke recurrence in patients with ESUS. Clinical Trial Registration URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02766205.

A tool to identify patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source at high recurrence risk.

OBJECTIVE: A tool to stratify the risk of stroke recurrence in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) could be useful in research and clinical practice. We aimed to determine whether a score can be developed and externally validated for the identification of patients with ESUS at high risk for stroke recurrence. METHODS: We pooled the data of all consecutive patients with ESUS from 11 prospective stroke registries. We performed multivariable Cox regression analysis to identify predictors of stroke recurrence. Based on the coefficient of each covariate of the fitted multivariable model, we generated an integer-based point scoring system. We validated the score externally assessing its discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: In 3 registries (884 patients) that were used as the derivation cohort, age, leukoaraiosis, and multiterritorial infarct were identified as independent predictors of stroke recurrence and were included in the final score, which assigns 1 point per every decade after 35 years of age, 2 points for leukoaraiosis, and 3 points for multiterritorial infarcts (acute or old nonlacunar). The rate of stroke recurrence was 2.1 per 100 patient-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44-3.06) in patients with a score of 0-4 (low risk), 3.74 (95% CI 2.77-5.04) in patients with a score of 5-6 (intermediate risk), and 8.23 (95% CI 5.99-11.3) in patients with a score of 7-12 (high risk). Compared to low-risk patients, the risk of stroke recurrence was significantly higher in intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.78, 95% CI 1.1-2.88) and high-risk patients (HR 4.67, 95% CI 2.83-7.7). The score was well-calibrated in both derivation and external validation cohorts (8 registries, 820 patients) (Hosmer-Lemeshow test χ2: 12.1 [p = 0.357] and χ2: 21.7 [p = 0.753], respectively). The area under the curve of the score was 0.63 (95% CI 0.58-0.68) and 0.60 (95% CI 0.54-0.66), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed score can assist in the identification of patients with ESUS at high risk for stroke recurrence.