Gestational age at birth and type 1 diabetes in childhood and young adulthood: a nationwide register study in Finland, Norway and Sweden.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Children and adults born preterm have an increased risk of type 1 diabetes. However, there is limited information on risk patterns across the full range of gestational ages, especially after extremely preterm birth (23-27 weeks of gestation). We investigated the risk of type 1 diabetes in childhood and young adulthood across the full range of length of gestation at birth. METHODS: Data were obtained from national registers in Finland, Norway and Sweden. In each country, information on study participants and gestational age was collected from the Medical Birth Registers, information on type 1 diabetes diagnoses was collected from the National Patient Registers, and information on education, emigration and death was collected from the respective national register sources. Individual-level data were linked using unique personal identity codes. The study population included all individuals born alive between 1987 and 2016 to mothers whose country of birth was the respective Nordic country. Individuals were followed until diagnosis of type 1 diabetes, death, emigration or end of follow-up (31 December 2016 in Finland, 31 December 2017 in Norway and Sweden). Gestational age was categorised as extremely preterm (23-27 completed weeks), very preterm (28-31 weeks), moderately preterm (32-33 weeks), late preterm (34-36 weeks), early term (37-38 weeks), full term (39-41 weeks; reference) and post term (42-45 weeks). HRs and 95% CIs from country-specific covariate-adjusted Cox regression models were combined in a meta-analysis using a common-effect inverse-variance model. RESULTS: Among 5,501,276 individuals, 0.2% were born extremely preterm, 0.5% very preterm, 0.7% moderately preterm, 4.2% late preterm, 17.7% early term, 69.9% full term, and 6.7% post term. A type 1 diabetes diagnosis was recorded in 12,326 (0.8%), 6364 (0.5%) and 16,856 (0.7%) individuals at a median age of 8.2, 13.0 and 10.5 years in Finland, Norway and Sweden, respectively. Individuals born late preterm or early term had an increased risk of type 1 diabetes compared with their full-term-born peers (pooled, multiple confounder-adjusted HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.07, 1.18; and 1.15, 95% CI 1.11, 1.18, respectively). However, those born extremely preterm or very preterm had a decreased risk of type 1 diabetes (adjusted HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.45, 0.88; and 0.78, 95% CI 0.67, 0.92, respectively). These associations were similar across all three countries. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Individuals born late preterm and early term have an increased risk of type 1 diabetes while individuals born extremely preterm or very preterm have a decreased risk of type 1 diabetes compared with those born full term.

Changing diagnostic criteria for gestational diabetes (CDC4G) in Sweden: A stepped wedge cluster randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organisation (WHO) 2013 diagnostic criteria for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) has been criticised due to the limited evidence of benefits on pregnancy outcomes in different populations when switching from previously higher glycemic thresholds to the lower WHO-2013 diagnostic criteria. The aim of this study was to determine whether the switch from previous Swedish (SWE-GDM) to the WHO-2013 GDM criteria in Sweden following risk factor-based screening improves pregnancy outcomes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A stepped wedge cluster randomised trial was performed between January 1 and December 31, 2018 in 11 clusters (17 delivery units) across Sweden, including all pregnancies under care and excluding preexisting diabetes, gastric bypass surgery, or multifetal pregnancies from the analysis. After implementation of uniform clinical and laboratory guidelines, a number of clusters were randomised to intervention (switch to WHO-2013 GDM criteria) each month from February to November 2018. The primary outcome was large for gestational age (LGA, defined as birth weight >90th percentile). Other secondary and prespecified outcomes included maternal and neonatal birth complications. Primary analysis was by modified intention to treat (mITT), excluding 3 clusters that were randomised before study start but were unable to implement the intervention. Prespecified subgroup analysis was undertaken among those discordant for the definition of GDM. Multilevel mixed regression models were used to compare outcome LGA between WHO-2013 and SWE-GDM groups adjusted for clusters, time periods, and potential confounders. Multiple imputation was used for missing potential confounding variables. In the mITT analysis, 47 080 pregnancies were included with 6 882 (14.6%) oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) performed. The GDM prevalence increased from 595/22 797 (2.6%) to 1 591/24 283 (6.6%) after the intervention. In the mITT population, the switch was associated with no change in primary outcome LGA (2 790/24 209 (11.5%) versus 2 584/22 707 (11.4%)) producing an adjusted risk ratio (aRR) of 0.97 (95% confidence interval 0.91 to 1.02, p = 0.26). In the subgroup, the prevalence of LGA was 273/956 (28.8%) before and 278/1 239 (22.5%) after the switch, aRR 0.87 (95% CI 0.75 to 1.01, p = 0.076). No serious events were reported. Potential limitations of this trial are mainly due to the trial design, including failure to adhere to guidelines within and between the clusters and influences of unidentified temporal variations. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, implementing the WHO-2013 criteria in Sweden with risk factor-based screening did not significantly reduce LGA prevalence defined as birth weight >90th percentile, in the total population, or in the subgroup discordant for the definition of GDM. Future studies are needed to evaluate the effects of treating different glucose thresholds during pregnancy in different populations, with different screening strategies and clinical management guidelines, to optimise women's and children's health in the short and long term. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial is registered with ISRCTN (41918550).

Preterm delivery and maternal obesity remain common complications in pregnancies with type 1 diabetes-A nationwide study in Sweden.

AIM: A primary goal of obstetric care of women with type 1 diabetes (T1D) is to reduce the risks of preterm birth (PTB). Besides hyperglycaemia, maternal obesity is an important risk factor for PTB in T1D. However, it's unclear if public health efforts decreased risks of maternal obesity and PTB in pregnancies with T1D. We examined time-trends over the last 20 years in the distribution of gestational ages at birth (GA) in offspring of women with T1D in Sweden, and in maternal BMI in the same mothers. METHODS: Population-based cohort study, using data from national registries in Sweden. To capture differences not only in the median values, we used quantile regression models to compare the whole distributions of GA's and early pregnancy BMI between deliveries in 1998-2007 (P1) and 2008-2016 (P2). Multivariable models were adjusted for differences in maternal age, smoking and education between periods 1 and 2. RESULTS: The study included 7639 offspring of women with T1D between 1998 and 2016. The 10% percentile GA, increased with 0.09 days (95% CI: -0.11 to 0.35) between P1 and P2. The 90% percentile for BMI was 1.20 kg/m2 higher (95% CI: 0.57 to 1.83) in P2. Risks of PTB remained stable over time also when adjusting for maternal BMI. CONCLUSION: Despite modern diabetes management, the distribution of GA, and consequently the risk of PTB in T1D, remained unchanged from 1998 to 2016. During the same time, maternal BMI increased, particularly in the already obese.

Paternal and maternal psychiatric history and risk of preterm and early term birth: A nationwide study using Swedish registers.

BACKGROUND: Women with psychiatric diagnoses are at increased risk of preterm birth (PTB), with potential life-long impact on offspring health. Less is known about the risk of PTB in offspring of fathers with psychiatric diagnoses, and for couples where both parents were diagnosed. In a nationwide birth cohort, we examined the association between psychiatric history in fathers, mothers, and both parents and gestational age. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We included all infants live-born to Nordic parents in 1997 to 2016 in Sweden. Psychiatric diagnoses were obtained from the National Patient Register. Data on gestational age were retrieved from the Medical Birth Register. Associations between parental psychiatric history and PTB were quantified by relative risk (RR) and two-sided 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from log-binomial regressions, by psychiatric disorders overall and by diagnostic categories. We extended the analysis beyond PTB by calculating risks over the whole distribution of gestational age, including "early term" (37 to 38 weeks). Among the 1,488,920 infants born throughout the study period, 1,268,507 were born to parents without a psychiatric diagnosis, of whom 73,094 (5.8%) were born preterm. 4,597 of 73,500 (6.3%) infants were born preterm to fathers with a psychiatric diagnosis, 8,917 of 122,611 (7.3%) infants were born preterm to mothers with a pscyhiatric diagnosis, and 2,026 of 24,302 (8.3%) infants were born preterm to both parents with a pscyhiatric diagnosis. We observed a shift towards earlier gestational age in offspring of parents with psychiatric history. The risks of PTB associated with paternal and maternal psychiatric diagnoses were similar for different psychiatric disorders. The risks for PTB were estimated at RR 1.12 (95% CI [1.08, 1.15] p < 0.001) for paternal diagnoses, at RR 1.31 (95% CI [1.28, 1.34] p < 0.001) for maternal diagnoses, and at RR 1.52 (95% CI [1.46, 1.59] p < 0.001) when both parents were diagnosed with any psychiatric disorder, compared to when neither parent had a psychiatric diagnosis. Stress-related disorders were associated with the highest risks of PTB with corresponding RRs estimated at 1.23 (95% CI [1.16, 1.31] p < 0.001) for a psychiatry history in fathers, at 1.47 (95% CI [1.42, 1.53] p < 0.001) for mothers, and at 1.90 (95% CI [1.64, 2.20] p < 0.001) for both parents. The risks for early term were similar to PTB. Co-occurring diagnoses from different diagnostic categories increased risk; for fathers: RR 1.10 (95% CI [1.07, 1.13] p < 0.001), 1.15 (95% CI [1.09, 1.21] p < 0.001), and 1.33 (95% CI [1.23, 1.43] p < 0.001), for diagnoses in 1, 2, and ≥3 categories; for mothers: RR 1.25 (95% CI [1.22, 1.28] p < 0.001), 1.39 (95% CI [1.34, 1.44] p < 0.001) and 1.65 (95% CI [1.56, 1.74] p < 0.001). Despite the large sample size, statistical precision was limited in subgroups, mainly where both parents had specific psychiatric subtypes. Pathophysiology and genetics underlying different psychiatric diagnoses can be heterogeneous. CONCLUSIONS: Paternal and maternal psychiatric history were associated with a shift to earlier gestational age and increased risk of births before full term. The risk consistently increased when fathers had a positive history of different psychiatric disorders, increased further when mothers were diagnosed and was highest when both parents were diagnosed.

Estimated glucose disposal rate is associated with retinopathy and kidney disease in young people with type 1 diabetes: a nationwide observational study.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR), a proxy for insulin resistance, and retinopathy or kidney disease, i.e. micro-, or macroalbuminuria, in young individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Using data from the Swedish pediatric registry for diabetes (SweDiabKids) and the registry for adults (NDR), all individuals with T1D with a duration of diabetes of less than 10 years between 1998 and 2017 were included. We calculated the crude incidence rates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and used multivariable Cox regression to estimate crude and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for two cohorts: retinopathy cohort or kidney disease cohort, stratified by eGDR categories: < 4, 4 to 5.99, 6 to 7.99, and ≥ 8 mg/kg/min (reference). RESULTS: A total of 22 146 (10 289 retinopathy cohort, and 11 857 kidney disease cohort with an overlapping of 9575) children and adults with T1D (median age 21 years, female 42% and diabetes duration of 6 and 7 years, respectively for the cohorts) were studied. During a median follow-up of 4.8 years (IQR 2.6-7.7) there were 5040 (24.7%), 1909 (48.1%), 504 (52.3%) and 179 (57.6%) events for retinopathy in individuals with an eGDR ≥ 8, 7.99 to 6, 5.99 to 4, and < 4 mg/kg/min, respectively. Corresponding numbers for kidney disease was 1321 (6.5%), 526 (13.3%), 255 (26.8%) and 145 (46.6%). After multiple adjustments for different covariates, individuals with an eGDR 7.99 to 6, 5.99 to 4 and < 4 mg/kg/min, had an increased risk of retinopathy compared to those with an eGDR ≥ 8 mg/kg/min (adjusted HRs, 95% CIs) 1.29 (1.20 to 1.40); 1.50 (1.31 to 1.71) and 1.74 (1.41 to 2.14). Corresponding numbers for kidney disease was (adjusted HRs, 95% CIs) 1.30 (1.11 to 1.52); 1.58 (1.25 to 1.99) and 1.33 (0.95 to 1.86), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: eGDR, a proxy for insulin resistance, is associated with retinopathy and kidney disease in young adults with T1D. The risk of retinopathy increased with lower eGDR. The risk of kidney disease also increased with lower eGDR; however results show no association between the lowest eGDR and kidney disease. eGDR can be helpful to identify young T1D individuals at risk.

Month of birth and the risk of developing type 1 diabetes among children in the Swedish national Better Diabetes Diagnosis Study.

AIM: Previous studies have reported an association between month of birth and incidence of type 1 diabetes. Using population-based data, including almost all newly diagnosed children with type 1 diabetes in Sweden, we tested whether month of birth influences the risk of type 1 diabetes. METHODS: For 8761 children diagnosed with type 1 diabetes between May 2005 and December 2016 in the Better Diabetes Diagnosis study, month of birth, sex and age were compared. Human leucocyte antigen (HLA) genotype and autoantibodies at diagnosis were analysed for a subset of the cohort (n = 3647). Comparisons with the general population used data from Statistics Sweden. RESULTS: We found no association between month of birth or season and the incidence of type 1 diabetes in the cohort as a whole. However, boys diagnosed before 5 years were more often born in May (p = 0.004). We found no correlation between month of birth and HLA or antibodies. CONCLUSION: In this large nationwide study, the impact of month of birth on type 1 diabetes diagnosis was weak, except for boys diagnosed before 5 years of age, who were more likely born in May. This may suggest different triggers for different subgroups of patients with type 1 diabetes.

Celiac disease can be predicted by high levels of tissue transglutaminase antibodies in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes.

OBJECTIVES: Children with type 1 diabetes (T1D) are not included in guidelines regarding diagnosis criteria for celiac disease (CD) without a diagnostic biopsy, due to lack of data. We explored whether tissue transglutaminase antibodies (anti-tTG) that were ≥ 10 times the upper limit of normal (10× ULN) predicted CD in T1D. METHODS: Data from the Swedish prospective Better Diabetes Diagnosis study was used, and 2035 children and adolescents with T1D diagnosed between 2005-2010 were included. Of these, 32 had been diagnosed with CD before T1D. The children without CD were repeatedly screened for CD using anti-tTG antibodies of immunoglobulin type A. In addition, their human leukocyte antigen (HLA) were genotyped. All children with positive anti-tTG were advised to undergo biopsy. Biopsies were performed on 119 children and graded using the Marsh-Oberhüber classification. RESULTS: All of the 60 children with anti-tTG ≥10x ULN had CD verified by biopsies. The degree of mucosal damage correlated with anti-tTG levels. Among 2003 screened children, 6.9% had positive anti-tTG and 5.6% were confirmed CD. The overall CD prevalence, when including the 32 children with CD before T1D, was 7.0% (145/2035). All but one of the children diagnosed with CD had HLA-DQ2 and/or DQ8. CONCLUSIONS: As all screened children and adolescents with T1D with tissue transglutaminase antibodies above 10 times the positive value 10x ULN had CD, we propose that the guidelines for diagnosing CD in screened children, when biopsies can be omitted, should also apply to children and adolescents with T1D as a noninvasive method.

Association of childhood obesity with risk of early all-cause and cause-specific mortality: A Swedish prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Pediatric obesity is associated with increased risk of premature death from middle age onward, but whether the risk is already increased in young adulthood is unclear. The aim was to investigate whether individuals who had obesity in childhood have an increased mortality risk in young adulthood, compared with a population-based comparison group. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this prospective cohort study, we linked nationwide registers and collected data on 41,359 individuals. Individuals enrolled at age 3-17.9 years in the Swedish Childhood Obesity Treatment Register (BORIS) and living in Sweden on their 18th birthday (start of follow-up) were included. A comparison group was matched by year of birth, sex, and area of residence. We analyzed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted according to group, sex, Nordic origin, and parental socioeconomic status (SES). Over 190,752 person-years of follow-up (median follow-up time 3.6 years), 104 deaths were recorded. Median (IQR) age at death was 22.0 (20.0-24.5) years. In the childhood obesity cohort, 0.55% (n = 39) died during the follow-up period, compared to 0.19% (n = 65) in the comparison group (p < 0.001). More than a quarter of the deaths among individuals in the childhood obesity cohort had obesity recorded as a primary or contributing cause of death. Male sex and low parental SES were associated with premature all-cause mortality. Suicide and self-harm with undetermined intent were the main cause of death in both groups. The largest difference between the groups lay within endogenous causes of death, where children who had undergone obesity treatment had an adjusted mortality rate ratio of 4.04 (95% CI 2.00-8.17, p < 0.001) compared with the comparison group. The main study limitation was the lack of anthropometric data in the comparison group. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that the risk of mortality in early adulthood may be higher for individuals who had obesity in childhood compared to a population-based comparison group.

Gestational age and the risk of autism spectrum disorder in Sweden, Finland, and Norway: A cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: The complex etiology of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is still unresolved. Preterm birth (<37 weeks of gestation) and its complications are the leading cause of death of babies in the world, and those who survive often have long-term health problems. Length of gestation, including preterm birth, has been linked to ASD risk, but robust estimates for the whole range of gestational ages (GAs) are lacking. The primary objective of this study was to provide a detailed and robust description of ASD risk across the entire range of GAs while adjusting for sex and size for GA. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Our study had a multinational cohort design, using population-based data from medical registries in three Nordic countries: Sweden, Finland, and Norway. GA was estimated in whole weeks based on ultrasound. Children were prospectively followed from birth for clinical diagnosis of ASD. Relative risk (RR) of ASD was estimated using log-binomial regression. Analyses were also stratified by sex and by size for GA. The study included 3,526,174 singletons born 1995 to 2015, including 50,816 (1.44%) individuals with ASD. In the whole cohort, 165,845 (4.7%) were born preterm. RR of ASD increased by GA, from 40 to 24 weeks and from 40 to 44 weeks of gestation. The RR of ASD in children born in weeks 22-31, 32-36, and 43-44 compared to weeks 37-42 were estimated at 2.31 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.15-2.48; 1.67% vs 0.83%; p-value < 0.001), 1.35 (95% CI 1.30-1.40; 1.08% vs 0.83%; p-value < 0.001), and 1.37 (95% CI 1.21-1.54; 1.74% vs 0.83%; p-value < 0.001), respectively. The main limitation of this study is the lack of data on potential causes of pre- or postterm birth. Also, the possibility of residual confounding should be considered. CONCLUSION: In the current study, we observed that the RR of ASD increased weekly as the date of delivery diverged from 40 weeks, both pre- and postterm, independently of sex and size for GA. Given the unknown etiology of ASD and the lifelong consequences of the disorder, identifying groups of increased risk associated with a potentially modifiable risk factor is important.

Anxiety and depression in children and adolescents with obesity: a nationwide study in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Anxiety and depression are more common in children with obesity than in children of normal weight, but it is unclear whether this association is independent of other known risk factors. Interpretation of results from previous studies is hampered by methodological limitations, including self-reported assessment of anxiety, depression, and anthropometry. The aim of this study was to investigate whether obesity increases the risk of anxiety or depression independently of other risk factors in a large cohort of children and adolescents, using robust measures with regard to exposure and outcome. METHODS: Children aged 6-17 years in the Swedish Childhood Obesity Treatment Register (BORIS, 2005-2015) were included (n = 12,507) and compared with a matched group (sex, year of birth, and area of residence) from the general population (n = 60,063). The main outcome was a diagnosis of anxiety or depression identified through ICD codes or dispensed prescribed medication within 3 years after the end of obesity treatment. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from Cox proportional models were adjusted for several known confounders. RESULTS: Obesity remained a significant risk factor for anxiety and depression in children and adolescents after adjusting for Nordic background, neuropsychiatric disorders, family history of anxiety/depression, and socioeconomic status. Girls in the obesity cohort had a 43% higher risk of anxiety and depression compared to girls in the general population (adjusted HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.31-1.57; p < 0.0001). The risk in boys with obesity was similar (adjusted HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.20-1.48; p < 0.0001). In sensitivity analyses, excluding subjects with neuropsychiatric disorders and a family history of anxiety/depression, the estimated risks in individuals with obesity were even higher compared with results from the main analyses (adjusted HR [95% CI]: girls = 1.56 [1.31-1.87], boys = 2.04 [1.64-2.54]). CONCLUSIONS: Results from this study support the hypothesis that obesity per se is associated with risk of both anxiety and depression in children and adolescents.

Is obesity in pregnancy associated with signs of chronic fetal hypoxia?

INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of obesity in pregnancy is increasing worldwide. Maternal obesity increases risks of severe fetal and neonatal complications. The underlying pathophysiological mechanisms are unclear. One possible contributing factor could be chronic fetal hypoxia. The aim of this study was to compare placentas from women with and without obesity with respect to placental lesions, which could reflect compensatory mechanisms in response to chronic fetal hypoxia as well as lesions possibly leading to chronic fetal hypoxia. In addition, levels of erythropoietin in cord blood were compared between offspring of lean and obese women. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This cohort study included 180 women with uneventful, full-term, singleton pregnancies, out of which 91 lean women had a body mass index (BMI) of 18.5-24.9 kg/m2 and 89 women had obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2 ). Women were recruited at Södersjukhuset between 16 October 2018 and 2 December 2019. Placentas were investigated by two senior perinatal pathologists, who were blinded for maternal BMI. Cord blood was analyzed for levels of erythropoietin. RESULTS: Levels of erythropoietin in cord blood increased with maternal BMI (P = .01, ß = 0.97, 95% CI 0.27-1.68). There was no difference between placentas of obese and lean women in number of placental lesions reflecting chronic fetal hypoxia or in lesions that could possibly lead to chronic fetal hypoxia. CONCLUSIONS: This study of term and uneventful pregnancies demonstrated a positive association between maternal obesity and concentrations of erythropoietin in cord blood at birth. This finding supports the hypothesis of chronic fetal hypoxia as a risk factor for complications in the pregnancies of obese women. There were no differences in lesions associated with hypoxia between placentas of obese and lean women.

Treatment satisfaction correlated with glycaemic control and burden of diabetes in Swedish adolescents with type 1 diabetes.

AIM: To assess treatment satisfaction and perceived discomfort or pain from the treatment, and potential associations with glycaemic control, type of treatment, perceived burden of diabetes, sex and age, in adolescents with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was performed at one paediatric and at one adult diabetes clinic in Sweden, preceded by a translation of 'Diabetes Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire (DTSQ) Teen'. Adolescents with type 1 diabetes (15-20 years) participated. The questionnaires 'DTSQ Teen' and 'Check your health' were used. Data on glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), type of treatment, sex and age were collected. RESULTS: One hundred and thirty-eight adolescents (70 females, mean age 17.3, mean HbA1c 64.0 mmol/mol) participated. Treatment satisfaction correlated inversely with HbA1c (r = -.352, P < .001) and with all types of burden of diabetes (r = -.342 to -0.467, P < .001), but did not differ with type of treatment, sex and age. Perceived pain correlated inversely with burden on physical health (r = -.265, P = .002), mental health (r = -.237, P = .006) and quality of life (r = -.246, P = .004) but not with HbA1c, age or burden on social relations. Females perceived more discomfort or pain. CONCLUSION: In Swedish adolescents with type 1 diabetes, treatment satisfaction correlated with both glycaemic control and perceived burden of diabetes.

Determination of birth-weight centile thresholds associated with adverse perinatal outcomes using population, customised, and Intergrowth charts: A Swedish population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although many studies have compared birth-weight charts to determine which better identify infants at risk of adverse perinatal outcomes, less attention has been given to the threshold used to define small or large for gestational age (SGA or LGA) infants. Our aim was to explore different thresholds associated with increased risk of adverse perinatal outcomes using population, customised, and Intergrowth centile charts. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This is a population-based cohort study (Swedish Medical Birth Registry), which included term singleton births between 2006 and 2015 from women with available data on first-trimester screening. Population, customised, and Intergrowth charts were studied. Outcomes included cesarean section, postpartum haemorrhage, severe perineal tear, Apgar score at 5 minutes, neonatal morbidity, and perinatal mortality. Odds for each outcome were assessed in intervals of 5 centiles of birth weight (reference being 40th-60th centiles) using logistic regression. Intervals of 5% of the population were also explored. Sensitivity for fixed false-positive rates (FPRs) was reported for neonatal outcomes. Data from 212,101 births were analysed. Mean age was 33 ± 5 years, 48% of women were nulliparous, and 80% were born in Sweden. Prevalence of SGA (<10th centile) was 10.1%, 10.0%, and 3.1%, and prevalence of LGA (>90th centile) was 10.0%, 8.2%, and 25.1%, assessed using population, customised, and Intergrowth charts, respectively. In small infants, the risk of perinatal mortality was consistently increased below the 15th, 10th, and 35th birth-weight centiles for the respective charts (odds ratio [OR] 1.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-2.39, p = 0.03 for 10th-15th population centile; OR 2.54, 95% CI 1.74-3.71, p < 0.001 for 5th-10th customised centile; OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.07-3.04, p = 0.03 for 30th-35th Intergrowth centile). The strength of association with adverse perinatal outcomes was different between infants below the 5th birth-weight centile for each chart (OR 4.47, 95% CI 3.30-6.04, p < 0.001 for the population chart; OR 5.78, 95% CI 4.22-7.91, p < 0.001 for the customised chart; OR 10.74, 95% CI 7.32-15.77, p < 0.001 for the Intergrowth chart) but similar in the smallest 5% of the population (OR 4.34, 95% CI 3.22-5.86, p < 0.001 for the population chart; OR 5.23, 95% CI 3.85-7.11, p < 0.001 for the customised chart; OR 4.69, 95% CI 3.47-6.34, p < 0.001 for the Intergrowth chart). For a fixed FPR of 10%, different thresholds for each chart achieved similar sensitivity for perinatal mortality in small infants (29% for all charts). Similar behaviour of different thresholds and similar risk/sensitivity for fixed FPR were observed in relation to other outcomes and for LGA infants. Limitations of this study include the relative homogeneity of the Swedish population, which limits generalisability to other populations; customised centiles may perform differently in populations with increased heterogeneity of ethnic background. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of adverse outcomes was consistent across proportions of the population but did not reflect fixed thresholds, such as the 10th or 90th centiles, across different growth charts. Chart-specific thresholds for the population should be considered in clinical practice.

Prediction of large-for-gestational-age infants in pregnancies complicated by obesity: A population-based cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Infants born large for gestational age (LGA) have increased risks of adverse perinatal outcomes. Maternal obesity, defined as body mass index (BMI) ≥30 kg/m2 , is one of the most prevalent risk factors for LGA and the proportion of pregnancies complicated by obesity is increasing. Early identification of women with BMI ≥30 kg/m2 at increased risk of giving birth to an LGA infant may open possibilities for prevention, aiming at decreasing the incidence of LGA. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A population-based cohort study using information from the first-trimester screening database, which was cross-linked with the Swedish Medical Birth Register. The database included 139 277 full-term singletons without fetal anomalies born between 2006 and 2015 to mothers without prepregnancy diabetes. Of these, 9.1% (n = 12 704) were infants of mothers with BMI ≥30 kg/m2 . For all women with BMI ≥30 kg/m2 , a prediction model for LGA to be used in early pregnancy was constructed based on information on biochemical markers and maternal characteristics. A similar model, as well as a prepregnancy prediction model, were constructed for parous women with BMI ≥30 kg/m2 . In parous women, data from the previous pregnancy were also used. Receiver operating characteristic curve and area under curve (AUC) were calculated. RESULTS: The predictive models for LGA in parous women with BMI ≥30 kg/m2 prepregnancy and in early pregnancy had AUCs of 0.80 (95% CI 0.78-0.82) and 0.81 (95% CI 0.79-0.82), respectively. For all women with BMI ≥30 kg/m2 , the prediction of LGA in early pregnancy had an AUC of 0.66 (95% CI 0.64-0.67). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the prepregnancy and early pregnancy prediction models for LGA in parous women with BMI ≥30 kg/m2 was good. The predictive capacity was largely driven by previous child's birthweight. First-trimester measurements of fetal size did not improve the predictive capacity in parous women. Predictions of LGA in all women with BMI ≥30 kg/m2 in early pregnancy, without taking previous child's birthweight into account, remain difficult.

Changing diagnostic criteria for gestational diabetes in Sweden - a stepped wedge national cluster randomised controlled trial - the CDC4G study protocol.

BACKGROUND: The optimal criteria to diagnose gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) remain contested. The Swedish National Board of Health introduced the 2013 WHO criteria in 2015 as a recommendation for initiation of treatment for hyperglycaemia during pregnancy. With variation in GDM screening and diagnostic practice across the country, it was agreed that the shift to new guidelines should be in a scientific and structured way. The aim of the Changing Diagnostic Criteria for Gestational Diabetes (CDC4G) in Sweden ( www.cdc4g.se/en ) is to evaluate the clinical and health economic impacts of changing diagnostic criteria for GDM in Sweden and to create a prospective cohort to compare the many long-term outcomes in mother and baby under the old and new diagnostic approaches. METHODS: This is a stepped wedge cluster randomised controlled trial, comparing pregnancy outcomes before and after the switch in GDM criteria across 11 centres in a randomised manner. The trial includes all pregnant women screened for GDM across the participating centres during January-December 2018, approximately two thirds of all pregnancies in Sweden in a year. Women with pre-existing diabetes will be excluded. Data will be collected through the national Swedish Pregnancy register and for follow up studies other health registers will be included. DISCUSSION: The stepped wedge RCT was chosen to be the best study design for evaluating the shift from old to new diagnostic criteria of GDM in Sweden. The national quality registers provide data on the whole pregnant population and gives a possibility for follow up studies of both mother and child. The health economic analysis from the study will give a solid evidence base for future changes in order to improve immediate pregnancy, as well as long term, outcomes for mother and child. TRIAL REGISTRATION: CDC4G is listed on the ISRCTN registry with study ID ISRCTN41918550 (15/12/2017).

Risks of asphyxia-related neonatal complications in offspring of mothers with type 1 or type 2 diabetes: the impact of maternal overweight and obesity.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to compare the risks of severe asphyxia-related neonatal complications in the offspring of mothers with type 1 or type 2 diabetes, and to assess the impact of maternal overweight/obesity on these risks. METHODS: This was a population-based study of 1,343,751 live-born singleton infants in Sweden between 1997 and 2011, including 5941 and 711 infants of mothers with type 1 and type 2 diabetes, respectively. ORs with 95% CIs were calculated for low Apgar score (0-6) at 5 min after birth, hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy and neonatal seizures. RESULTS: The rates of a low Apgar score were 0.9%, 2.6% and 2.1% in the offspring of mothers without diabetes or with type 1 or type 2 diabetes, respectively. After controlling for maternal confounders (including BMI), the risk of a low Apgar score increased in the offspring of mothers with type 1 diabetes (OR 2.67, 95% CI 2.23, 3.20) but not in the offspring of mothers with type 2 diabetes (OR 1.25, 95% CI 0.66, 2.35). The ORs of hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy or neonatal seizures were increased in the offspring of mothers with type 1 diabetes (OR 3.41, 95% CI 2.58, 4.49) and type 2 diabetes (OR 2.54, 95% CI 1.13, 5.69). Maternal overweight/obesity was a risk factor for asphyxia-related neonatal complications and low Apgar scores in the offspring of mothers with type 1 diabetes and mothers without diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The risks of a low Apgar score and severe asphyxia-related neonatal complications are increased in the offspring of mothers with type 1 or type 2 diabetes. Maternal overweight/obesity is an important contributing factor.

Building and validating a prediction model for paediatric type 1 diabetes risk using next generation targeted sequencing of class II HLA genes.

AIM: It is of interest to predict possible lifetime risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in young children for recruiting high-risk subjects into longitudinal studies of effective prevention strategies. METHODS: Utilizing a case-control study in Sweden, we applied a recently developed next generation targeted sequencing technology to genotype class II genes and applied an object-oriented regression to build and validate a prediction model for T1D. RESULTS: In the training set, estimated risk scores were significantly different between patients and controls (P = 8.12 × 10-92 ), and the area under the curve (AUC) from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was 0.917. Using the validation data set, we validated the result with AUC of 0.886. Combining both training and validation data resulted in a predictive model with AUC of 0.903. Further, we performed a "biological validation" by correlating risk scores with 6 islet autoantibodies, and found that the risk score was significantly correlated with IA-2A (Z-score = 3.628, P < 0.001). When applying this prediction model to the Swedish population, where the lifetime T1D risk ranges from 0.5% to 2%, we anticipate identifying approximately 20 000 high-risk subjects after testing all newborns, and this calculation would identify approximately 80% of all patients expected to develop T1D in their lifetime. CONCLUSION: Through both empirical and biological validation, we have established a prediction model for estimating lifetime T1D risk, using class II HLA. This prediction model should prove useful for future investigations to identify high-risk subjects for prevention research in high-risk populations.

Maternal overweight and obesity and risk of pre-eclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes or type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Women with type 1 or type 2 diabetes are at increased risk of pre-eclampsia. Overweight and obesity are associated with an increased risk of pre-eclampsia in women without diabetes. The aim of the study was to investigate the impact of maternal overweight and obesity on the risk of pre-eclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes or type 2 diabetes. METHODS: In a population-based cohort study including singleton births in Sweden, we estimated the risk of pre-eclampsia among women with type 1 diabetes (n = 7062) and type 2 diabetes (n = 886), and investigated whether maternal overweight (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m(2)) and obesity (BMI ≥30.0 kg/m(2)) modified the risk. Logistic regression analyses were used to estimate crude and adjusted ORs with 95% CIs, using women without diabetes as the reference group (n = 1,509,525). RESULTS: Compared with women without diabetes, the adjusted ORs for pre-eclampsia in women with type 1 and type 2 diabetes were 5.74 (95% CI 5.31, 6.20) and 2.11 (95% CI 1.65, 2.70), respectively. The corresponding risks of pre-eclampsia combined with preterm birth were even higher. Risks of pre-eclampsia increased with maternal overweight (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m(2)) and obesity (BMI ≥30.0 kg/m(2)), foremost in women without diabetes, to a lesser extent in women with type 1 diabetes but not in women with type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Maternal overweight and obesity increased risks of pre-eclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes but not in women with type 2 diabetes. Even so, considering associations between maternal BMI and overall maternal and offspring risk, all women (with and without diabetes) should aim for a normal weight before pregnancy.

Inter-pregnancy Weight Change and Risks of Severe Birth-Asphyxia-Related Outcomes in Singleton Infants Born at Term: A Nationwide Swedish Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Maternal overweight and obesity are associated with increased risks of birth-asphyxia-related outcomes, but the mechanisms are unclear. If a change of exposure (i.e., maternal body mass index [BMI]) over time influences risks, this would be consistent with a causal relationship between maternal BMI and offspring risks. Our objective was to investigate associations between changes in maternal BMI between consecutive pregnancies and risks of birth-asphyxia-related outcomes in the second offspring born at term. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This study was a prospective population-based cohort study that included 526,435 second-born term (≥37 wk) infants of mothers with two consecutive live singleton term births in Sweden between January 1992 and December 2012. We estimated associations between the difference in maternal BMI between the first and second pregnancy and risks of low Apgar score (0-6) at 5 min, neonatal seizures, and meconium aspiration in the second-born offspring. Odds ratios (ORs) were adjusted for BMI at first pregnancy, maternal height, maternal age at second delivery, smoking, education, mother´s country of birth, inter-pregnancy interval, and year of second delivery. Analyses were also stratified by BMI (<25 versus ≥25 kg/m2) in the first pregnancy. Risks of low Apgar score, neonatal seizures, and meconium aspiration increased with inter-pregnancy weight gain. Compared with offspring of mothers with stable weight (BMI change of -1 to <1 kg/m2), the adjusted OR for a low Apgar score in the offspring of mothers with a BMI change of 4 kg/m2 or more was 1.33 (95% CI 1.12-1.58). The corresponding risks for neonatal seizures and meconium aspiration were 1.42 (95% CI 1.00-2.02) and 1.78 (95% CI 1.19-2.68), respectively. The increased risk of neonatal seizures related to weight gain appeared to be restricted to mothers with BMI < 25 kg/m2 in the first pregnancy. A study limitation was the lack of data on the effects of obstetric interventions and neonatal resuscitation efforts. CONCLUSIONS: Risks of birth-asphyxia-related outcomes increased with maternal weight gain between pregnancies. Preventing weight gain before and in between pregnancies may improve neonatal health.