Unravelling factors influencing demand for modern contraception and evaluating coverage progress since 2015 in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria: insights from multilevel and geostatistical modelling.

INTRODUCTION: The United Nations established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015 to enhance global development. In this study, we examine an SDG indicator: the percentage of women aged 15-49 whose family planning needs are met by modern contraception (mDFPS). We evaluate both the factors influencing its coverage and its progress since 2015. METHODS: We used nationally representative surveys data (Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA)) from Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria. We assessed predictors of mDFPS. We also computed mDFPS coverage across countries and subnational areas, assessing coverage changes from the SDGs onset to the most recent period, using a Bayesian model-based geostatistical approach. We assessed whether the subnational areas exceeded the minimum recommended WHO mDFPS coverage of 75%. RESULTS: Varied individual and community-level determinants emerged, highlighting the countries' uniqueness. Factors such as being part of a female-headed household, and low household wealth, lowered the odds of mDFPS, while rural-residence had low odds only in Ethiopia and Nigeria. The results indicate mDFPS stagnation in most administrative areas across the three countries. Geographic disparities persisted over time, favouring affluent regions. The predicted posterior proportion of mDFPS and exceedance probability (EP) for WHO target for Ethiopia was 39.85% (95% CI: [4.51, 83.01], EP = 0.08) in 2016 and 46.28% (95% CI: [7.15, 85.99], EP = 0.13) in 2019. In Kenya, the adjusted predicted proportion for 2014 was 30.19% (95% CI: [2.59, 80.24], EP = 0.06) and 44.16% (95%CI: [9.35, 80.24], EP = 0.13) in 2022. In Nigeria, the predicted posterior proportion of mDFPS was 17.91% (95% CI: [1.24, 61.29], EP = 0.00) in 2013, and it was 23.08% (95% CI: [1.80, 56.24], EP = 0.00) in 2018. None of the sub-national areas in Ethiopia and Nigeria exceeded the WHO target. While 9 out of 47 counties in Kenya in 2022 exceeded the WHO mDFPS target. CONCLUSION: The study unveils demographic, geographic, and socioeconomic mDFPS disparities, signalling progress and stagnation across administrative areas. The findings offer policymakers and governments insights into targeting interventions for enhanced mDFPS coverage. Context-specific strategies can address local needs, aiding SDG attainment.

Household food sources and diarrhoea incidence in poor urban communities, Accra Ghana.

Diarrhoeal diseases remain a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, particularly in poor urban communities in the Global South. Studies on food access and safety have however not considered the sources of discrete food categories and their propensity to harbour and transmit diarrhoeal disease pathogens in poor urban settings. We sought to contribute to knowledge on urban food environment and enteric infections by interrogating the sources and categories of common foods and their tendency to transmit diarrhoea in low-income communities in Accra. We modelled the likelihood of diarrhoea transmission through specific food categories sourced from home or out of home after controlling for alternate transmission pathways and barriers. We used structured interviews where households that participated in the study were selected through a multi-stage systematic sampling approach. We utilized data on 506 households from 3 low-income settlements in Accra. These settlements have socio-economic characteristics mimicking typical low-income communities in the Global South. The results showed that the incidence of diarrhoea in a household is explained by type and source of food, source of drinking water, wealth and the presence of children below five years in the household. Rice-based staples which were consumed by 94.5% of respondents in the week preceding the survey had a higher likelihood of transmitting diarrhoeal diseases when consumed out of home than when eaten at home. Sources of hand-served dumpling-type foods categorized as "staple balls" had a nuanced relationship with incidence of diarrhoea. These findings reinforce the need for due diligence in addressing peculiar needs of people in vulnerable conditions of food environment in poor urban settlements in order to reap a co-benefit of reduced incidence of diarrhoea while striving to achieve the global development goal on ending hunger.

Community and individual sense of trust and psychological distress among the urban poor in Accra, Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Mental health disorders present significant health challenges in populations in sub Saharan Africa especially in deprived urban poor contexts. Some studies have suggested that in collectivistic societies such as most African societies people can draw on social capital to attenuate the effect of community stressors on their mental health. Global studies suggest the effect of social capital on mental disorders such as psychological distress is mixed, and emerging studies on the psychosocial characteristics of collectivistic societies suggest that mistrust and suspicion sometimes deprive people of the benefit of social capital. In this study, we argue that trust which is often measured as a component of social capital has a more direct effect on reducing community stressors in such deprived communities. METHODS: Data from the Urban Health and Poverty Survey (EDULINK Wave III) survey were used. The survey was conducted in 2013 in three urban poor communities in Accra: Agbogbloshie, James Town and Ussher Town. Psychological distress was measured with a symptomatic wellbeing scale. Participants' perceptions of their neighbours' willingness to trust, protect and assist others was used to measure community sense of trust. Participants' willingness to ask for and receive help from neighbours was used to measure personal sense of trust. Demographic factors were controlled for. The data were analyzed using descriptive and multivariate regressions. RESULTS: The mean level of psychological distress among the residents was 25.5 (SD 5.5). Personal sense of trust was 8.2 (SD 2.0), and that of community sense of trust was 7.5 (SD 2.8). While community level trust was not significant, personal sense of trust significantly reduced psychological distress (B = -.2016728, t = -2.59, p < 0.010). The other factors associated with psychological distress in this model were perceived economic standing, education and locality of residence. CONCLUSION: This study presents evidence that more trusting individuals are significantly less likely to be psychologically distressed within deprived urban communities in Accra. Positive intra and inter individual level variables such as personal level trust and perceived relative economic standing significantly attenuated the effect of psychological distress in communities with high level neighbourhood disorder in Accra.