The microsimulation approach to epidemiologic modeling of helminthic infections, with special reference to schistosomiasis.

The microsimulation technique has been used since 1985 as a tool for epidemiologic modeling of helminthic infections. This technique is characterized by mimicking individual life histories, which makes it possible to include several relevant processes and mechanisms that have not so far been considered in applied modeling. Biological, epidemiologic, and social processes can be simulated in detail, which allows realistic prediction of the impact of control strategies. It is clear that careful quantification and validation of the many processes and parameters in the model requires close collaboration with experts working on control projects. In the development and application of a microsimulation model, we distinguish eight steps, ranging from the identification of questions the model will be designed to address, to the completion of a model that can be used as a routine decision-making tool in a control program.

SCHISTOSIM: a microsimulation model for the epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis.

A computer simulation model, SCHISTOSIM, has been developed for the epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis, based on the stochastic microsimulation technique. The eventual aim is to evaluate and predict the effects of different control strategies. In the current state of the model, human-, worm-, and infection-related aspects have been included. However, many others, including most transmission and transmission-related mechanisms, have yet to be modeled. By simulating a series of surveys and treatments in Burundi, short-term effects of this program were satisfactorily explained by the model. However, long-term predictions did not match the observed data. Possible extensions of the model to properly describe these effects are identified. The potential of SCHISTOSIM as a tool for the prediction of outcomes of alternative control strategies is illustrated and discussed.

The impact of five years of annual ivermectin treatment on skin microfilarial loads in the onchocerciasis focus of Asubende, Ghana.

Following the registration of ivermectin (Mectizan) for human use in the treatment of onchocerciasis, in 1987 the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) begun a series of trials in order to determine the safety of the drug when used on a large scale and its potential for morbidity control. This paper reports the changes in skin microfilarial loads during the first 5 years of annual treatment in the holoendemic focus of Asubende in Ghana, which was the largest trial area and which also had the longest series of follow-up surveys. The general observed pattern was a marked reduction of microfilarial loads shortly after each treatment followed by a steady repopulation of the skin until a subsequent treatment round. The overall reduction of microfilarial loads observed between the base line survey and one year after the last treatment was 90% for the total population examined and over 93% for a cohort which received the drug at all 5 treatment rounds. In contrast, there was only a very gradual decrease in the prevalence of infection in the population after subsequent treatments. The study further emphasizes that even a single treatment with ivermectin has a significant medium-term impact on microfilarial loads. Microfilarial counts barely increased after 14-16 months of treatment and stabilized around 55% of pre-treatment counts 2-4 years after a single treatment.

The reproductive lifespan of Onchocerca volvulus in West African savanna.

The epidemiological model ONCHOSIM--a model and computer simulation program for the transmission and control of onchocerciasis--has been used to determine the range of plausible values for the reproductive lifespan of Onchocerca volvulus. Model predictions based on different lifespan quantifications were compared with the results of longitudinal skin-snip surveys undertaken in 4 reference villages during 13 to 14 years of successful vector control in the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa. Good fits between predicted and observed trends in skin microfilarial loads could be obtained for all villages. It is concluded that the reproductive lifespan of the savanna strain of O. volvulus lies between 9 and 11 years, and that 95% of the parasites reach the end of reproduction before the age of 13 to 14 years.

Macrofilaricides and onchocerciasis control, mathematical modelling of the prospects for elimination.

BACKGROUND: In most endemic parts of the world, onchocerciasis (river blindness) control relies, or will soon rely, exclusively on mass treatment with the microfilaricide ivermectin. Worldwide eradication of the parasite by means of this drug is unlikely. Macrofilaricidal drugs are currently being developed for human use. METHODS: We used ONCHOSIM, a microsimulation mathematical model of the dynamics of onchocerciasis transmission, to explore the potentials of a hypothetical macrofilaricidal drug for the elimination of onchocerciasis under different epidemiological conditions, as characterized by previous intervention strategies, vectorial capacity and levels of coverage. RESULTS: With a high vector biting rate and poor coverage, a very effective macrofilaricide would appear to have a substantially higher potential for achieving elimination of the parasite than does ivermectin. CONCLUSIONS: Macrofilaricides have a substantially higher potential for achieving onchocerciasis elimination than ivermectin, but high coverage levels are still key. When these drugs become available, onchocerciasis elimination strategies should be reconsidered. In view of the impact of control efforts preceding the introduction of macrofilaricides on the success of elimination, it is important to sustain current control efforts.

The LYMFASIM simulation program for modeling lymphatic filariasis and its control.

The LYMFASIM modeling framework for the transmission and control of the tropical parasitic disease lymphatic filariasis is described and its use in the context of an endemic community in north-eastern Brazil is illustrated. Lymphatic filariasis is a disease with a complex natural history with many unknowns. This complicates decision making with respect to control strategies. With LYMFASIM, a variety of hypotheses can be tested about the life history of the parasite Wuchereria bancrofti, its transmission from man to man through mosquitoes, the role of the immune system in regulating parasite numbers, the development of disease symptoms, and the effects of control measures (drug treatment or mosquito control). The implications of alternative assumptions and uncertainty about the quantification of parameters for the effectiveness of control strategies can be investigated. Thanks to the use of stochastic microsimulation, LYMFASIM is highly flexible and can be adapted and extended as new knowledge emerges.

ONCHOSIM: a model and computer simulation program for the transmission and control of onchocerciasis.

ONCHOSIM is a computer program for modelling the transmission and control of the tropical parasitic disease onchocerciasis, or river blindness. It is developed in collaboration with the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP), and is used as a tool in the evaluation and planning of control operations. The model comprises a detailed description of the life history of the parasite Onchocerca volvulus and of its transmission from person to person by Simulium flies. The effects of different control strategies, based on larvicide application and chemotherapy (ivermectin), on the transmission and on the disease symptoms can be evaluated and predicted. In the program two simulation techniques are mixed. Stochastic microsimulation is used to calculate the life events of individual persons and inhabitant parasites, while the dynamics of the Simulium population and the development of the parasite in the flies are simulated deterministically. Output of ONCHOSIM conforms to the format in which data collected by the OCP are reported. This enables detailed checking of model specifications against empirical data. Output can also consist of summarizing key indices for the intensity of onchocerciasis infection, which is especially useful for comparing the effectivity of control strategies.

Effectiveness of annual ivermectin treatment for Wuchereria bancrofti infection.

Using estimates for the anthelmintic efficacy of a single dose of ivermectin in the treatment of lymphatic filariasis patients, Anton Plaisier, Wilma Stolk, Gerrit van Oortmarssen and Dik Habbema here present and discuss model predictions of the impact of a five-year programme of annual community treatment on the intensity of infection. They show that the effectiveness of such programmes in terms of reductions in the microfilarial density depends critically on the treatment coverage and the pattern of attendance at repeated mass administrations. Improving these factors will possibly be more important than improving the efficacy of ivermectin by increasing its dosage or by adding other drugs.

Efficacy of ivermectin in the treatment of Wuchereria bancrofti infection: a model-based analysis of trial results.

Ivermectin is a promising drug for the treatment of lymphatic filariasis. A meta-analysis of trials investigating the effects of a single treatment suggested a dose-dependent effect on the production of microfilariae (mf) by adult Wuchereria bancrofti parasites. A mathematical model that describes the parasite dynamics in the human host and the impact of ivermectin treatment is presented and its outputs compared with these trials. The calculated trend in mf density after treatment appears to be particularly sensitive to the assumption about the mean life-span of mf. Adopting 0.5-2 years as a range of plausible values for this mf life-span, the model is used to estimate the impact of treatment on the parasite. It is found that irrespective of dosage, ivermectin eliminates 100% of the blood mf from a patient. Furthermore, at a dosage level of 400 micrograms/kg a single treatment irreversibly reduces the mf production of the adult parasites by at least 65%. For a dosage of 200 micrograms/kg this reduction is at least 35%. No such effect can be concluded from the results of trials using lower dosages.

Prospective evaluation of onchocerciasis control strategies.

After more than 13 years of aerial larviciding, the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West-Africa (OCP) is considering the future of its control activities. In the original OCP-area the prevalence of infection has been brought down to very low levels and cessation of larviciding is being contemplated. The introduction of ivermectin has broadened the spectrum of available control measures. Countries outside the OCP are also planning chemotherapy-based onchocerciasis control. The prediction of the epidemiological impact of the different control options is difficult in view of the many factors which affect the dynamics of a chronic infectious disease like onchocerciasis. We developed the computer simulation model ONCHOSIM, which takes these many factors and their interrelationships into account. The program has a broad spectrum of uses of which some examples are given. It is explained how the model is used to simulate endemic situations and epidemiological trends during vector control. These trends can be explained in terms of longevity of the parasite and other model parameters. Secondly, predictions are made about the risk of recrudescence after stopping larviciding. Finally, the possible role of ivermectin to control recrudescence after interruption of vector control and to reduce disease symptoms in an endemic situation is explored. The latter application is also important outside the OCP-area. This shows the usefulness of ONCHOSIM as a means for transferring the OCP-knowledge about onchocerciasis control to other countries. From our experience with ONCHOSIM, it is concluded that model based prospective evaluation of control measures is useful in synthesizing existing knowledge, in steering applied research, in interpreting the results of experimental studies, and last but not least, in aiding the policy-making process.

The risk and dynamics of onchocerciasis recrudescence after cessation of vector control.

Using a computer simulation study, we have investigated the risk and dynamics of onchocerciasis recrudescence after stopping vector control, in order to provide guidelines for operational decision-making in the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP). For this purpose, we used the microsimulation model ONCHOSIM to predict for periods of 9-15 years of vector control the ensuing risk and dynamics of recrudescence in an onchocerciasis focus. The model was quantified and validated using OCP evaluation and field research data. A range of plausible values was determined for important confounding parameters, i.e., vector biting rate, variation in exposure between individuals, parasite life span, and the relation between skin microfilarial load and vector infection. Different model quantifications were used in order to take account of the possible confounding effect of these parameters on the prediction of recrudescence. In the absence of immigration of infected humans or invasion by infected flies, the model predicts that 14 years of full-scale vector control are required to reduce the risk of recrudescence to less than 1%. The risk depends, in particular, on the vector biting rate, and this has implications for the planning of post-larviciding surveillance. Recrudescence will be a relatively slow process, and its rate will depend on the duration of vector control. Even if vector control were stopped too early, i.e., after 12-13 years in a highly endemic area, it would take more than 20 years before the intensity of infection in the community would reach levels of public health importance.

Epidemiological modelling for onchocerciasis control.

Planning and evaluation of parasitic disease control is complicated by the many interacting factors that jointly determine the epidemiological trends under different control strategies. The Onchocerciasis Control Programme (OCP) of the World Health Organization in West Africa has recognized this problem and uses epidemiological modelling as on aid to addressing control questions. Dik Habbema, Edoh Soumbey Alley, Anton Plaisier, Gerrit van Oortmorssen and Hans Remme describe the organization of modelling in the OCP and summarize the most important achievements thus far. The experience with applied modelling in OCP is of considerable interest for other disease control programmes.

Required duration of combined annual ivermectin treatment and vector control in the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in west Africa.

In the extension areas of the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa, aerial larviciding is supplemented with annual ivermectin treatment, mainly to achieve better control of morbidity. The purpose of this study is to determine whether and to what extent the addition of annual ivermectin treatment permits earlier cessation of vector control than originally recommended. The effectiveness of combined ivermectin distribution and vector control was assessed using an epidemiological model. Model predictions suggest that, dependent on the pre-control endemicity of the area and the proportion of persons treated during each ivermectin round, large-scale annual treatment permits a considerable reduction in the duration of vector control. Taking into account uncertainty about the efficacy of ivermectin, our results indicate that, provided treatment coverage is at least 65% and there is no importation of infection from elsewhere, 12 years of combined control will be sufficient to reduce the risk of recrudescence to below 1% in even the most afflicted areas.

The relationship between microfilarial load in the human host and uptake and development of Wuchereria bancrofti microfilariae by Culex quinquefasciatus: a study under natural conditions.

The uptake of Wuchereria bancrofti microfilariae (Mf) by Culex quinquefasciatus and their development in relation to human Mf density were quantified by allowing a total of 1096 wild mosquitoes to feed on 13 volunteers sleeping under partially open bed-nets. For each volunteer, each hour between 18.00 and 06.00 h the Mf density in finger-prick blood was determined and engorged mosquitoes collected. Each hourly collection of mosquitoes was kept separately. Half of them was dissected within 18 h post-feeding for the presence of ingested Mf, the other half was reared for 12 days to allow for the development of L3 larvae. About 20% of the latter mosquitoes died during these 12 days and these harboured significantly more larvae than the surviving ones, which could be an indication of excess-mortality among heavily infected mosquitoes. Assuming that variability in Mf uptake and in the number of developed L3 larvae can be described by a negative binomial distribution, a maximum-likelihood procedure was applied to estimate the relationship between human Mf density and both the arithmetic mean Mf uptake and L3 development. Both were adequately described by a saturating hyperbolic function that significantly differed from linearity. The saturation level for Mf was estimated at 29 (CI: 20-54) and for L3 larvae at 6.6 (CI: 4.3-17.0). Next, the L3 yield was related to Mf uptake indicating that the W. bancrofti-C. quinquefasciatus complex shows 'limitation', i.e. a decreasing yield for an increasing uptake. Both the number of Mf ingested and the number of L3 larvae developing per mosquito were found to be highly aggregated, with the level of aggregation decreasing in a non-linear way with human Mf density.

Irreversible effects of ivermectin on adult parasites in onchocerciasis patients in the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa.

Ivermectin is an effective drug for the treatment of human onchocerciasis, a disease caused by the parasitic filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus. When humans are treated, the microfilariae normally found in the skin are rapidly and very nearly completely eliminated. Nonetheless, after a delay, microfilariae gradually reappear in the skin. This study is concerned with the causes of this delay. Hypotheses are tested by comparing the results of model calculations with skin microfilaria counts collected from 114 patients during a trial of five annual treatments in the focus area of Asubende, Ghana. The results obtained strongly suggest that annual treatment with ivermectin causes an irreversible decline in microfilariae production of approximately 30%/treatment. This result has important implications for public health strategies designed to eliminate onchocerciasis as a significant health hazard.

Ivermectin for the chemotherapy of bancroftian filariasis: a meta-analysis of the effect of single treatment.

The efficacy and safety of ivermectin in the treatment of filariasis due to Wuchereria bancrofti was assessed by a meta-analysis of the results from 15 published clinical trials. Seven hundred and forty-eight microfilaraemic patients were enrolled in 7 dose-finding and 8 comparative studies. Administered as a single dose, ivermectin induced nearly complete clearance of microfilariae from the blood from the first day to 30 days post-treatment, followed by gradual recurrence of microfilaraemia and increase in its intensity. Higher doses of ivermectin showed greater clearance effects and maintained lower microfilaraemia levels for a longer time. The adverse reactions caused by the drug were flu-like, transient, generally mild and well tolerated by patients. The frequency and intensity of adverse reactions were strongly associated with pretreatment microfilaria counts in the blood, but independent of dose. The findings of the meta-analysis suggest that ivermectin given at a single annual dose of 200 micrograms/kg body weight or higher, whether or not in combination with DEC, has great potential for therapeutic strategies to control bancroftian filariasis.

Importance of Helicobacter pylori cagA and vacA status for the efficacy of antibiotic treatment.

BACKGROUND: Virulence factors of Helicobacter pylori are associated with peptic ulcer disease and may be also associated with the efficacy of treatment. AIMS: To determine the relation between the vacA and the cagA status of H pylori, clinical disease, and treatment outcome. PATIENTS: 121 patients with H pylori infection and peptic ulcer disease or functional dyspepsia were treated by quadruple antibiotic therapy in two groups for one and two days, respectively. METHODS: DNA was isolated from gastric antral biopsy specimens, taken before and after treatment, and the vacA and cagA status was determined by polymerase chain reaction and reverse hybridisation. RESULTS: Peptic ulcer disease was significantly associated with the vacA s1 type, and cagA positivity, but not with the vacA m type. Treatment efficacy was significantly higher in patients with peptic ulcer disease, or infected with cagA+/vacA s1 strains. CONCLUSIONS: The strong association between the cagA and vacA status and peptic ulcer disease was confirmed. Cure rates seem to be higher for patients with cagA+/vacA s1 H pylori strains, which is consistent with the higher cure rate observed among ulcer patients compared with functional dyspepsia patients. Therefore, treatment studies may require stratification for presence of ulcers as well as H pylori genotypes.

Can ivermectin mass treatments eliminate onchocerciasis in Africa?

OBJECTIVE: To elucidate the conditions in which mass treatment with ivermectin reduces the transmission of Onchocerca volvulus sufficiently to eliminate infection from an African community. METHODS: ONCHOSIM, a microsimulation model for onchocerciasis transmission, was used to explore the implications of different treatment intervals, coverage levels and precontrol endemicities for the likelihood of elimination. FINDINGS: Simulations suggested that control strategies based exclusively on ivermectin mass treatments could eliminate onchocerciasis. The duration of treatment required to eliminate infection depended heavily on the treatment programme and precontrol endemicity. In areas with medium to high levels of infection, annual mass treatments with 65% coverage for at least 25 years were necessary. Model predictions suggested that durations exceeding 35 years would be required if there were much heterogeneity in exposure to vector bites and, consequently, wide individual variation in microfilaria counts. If the treatment interval were reduced from 12 to 6 months the time for completion of the programme could be more than halved and elimination could be accomplished in areas of hyperendemicity, provided that the effects of each treatment would be the same as with annual treatments. However, it was doubtful whether high coverage levels could be sustained long enough to achieve worldwide eradication. CONCLUSION: Elimination of onchocerciasis from most endemic foci in Africa appears to be possible. However, the requirements in terms of duration, coverage, and frequency of treatment may be prohibitive in highly endemic areas.

The dynamics of Wuchereria bancrofti infection: a model-based analysis of longitudinal data from Pondicherry, India.

This paper presents a model-based analysis of longitudinal data describing the impact of integrated vector management on the intensity of Wuchereria bancrofti infection in Pondicherry, India. The aims of this analysis were (1) to gain insight into the dynamics of infection, with emphasis on the possible role of immunity, and (2) to develop a model that can be used to predict the effects of control. Using the LYMFASIM computer simulation program, two models with different types of immunity (anti-L3 larvae or anti-adult worm fecundity) were compared with a model without immunity. Parameters were estimated by fitting the models to data from 5071 individuals with microfilaria-density measurement before and after cessation of a 5-year vector management programme. A good fit, in particular of the convex shape of the age-prevalence curve, required inclusion of anti-L3 or anti-fecundity immunity in the model. An individual's immune-responsiveness was found to halve in approximately 10 years after cessation of boosting. Explanation of the large variation in Mf-density required considerable variation between individuals in exposure and immune responsiveness. The mean life-span of the parasite was estimated at about 10 years. For the post-control period, the models predict a further decline in Mf prevalence, which agrees well with observations made 3 and 6 years after cessation of the integrated vector management programme.

Large scale ivermectin distribution and its epidemiological consequences.

Community trials were started to address questions concerning the safety of ivermectin during large scale treatment, its potential for transmission control, its effect in preventing ocular onchocercal disease, its acceptability and the organization of large scale treatment. A summary is presented of the major, latest results on the short-term epidemiological impact of large scale ivermectin treatment, as observed in eight community trials undertaken in the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP). Ivermectin treatment resulted in a 96%-99% reduction in the mean load of microfilariae (mf) in the skin in treated patients. The subsequent mf-repopulation of the skin was faster than in the clinical trials and after 12 months the mean loads had returned to more than 40% of the pre-treatment load. Ocular mf loads were also greatly reduced and a post-treatment regression of early lesions of the anterior segment of the eye was observed. The transmission of Onchocerca volvulus was reduced by some 60% during the first year after treatment in one trial but no additional reduction was observed after the second treatment round. These results, and other recent research findings, have been used to quantify an epidemiological model for the transmission and control of onchocerciasis. Preliminary results of computer simulations of the predicted long-term epidemiological impact of large scale ivermectin treatment indicate that ivermectin treatment may play a very important role in disease control but that it is unlikely to become a practical tool for transmission control in endemic foci. Ivermectin treatment appears to be the most appropriate method for control of recrudescence of infection in an area where the parasite reservoir has been virtually eliminated by vector control, such as in the core area of the OCP.