The immune response to RNA suppresses nucleic acid synthesis by limiting ribose 5-phosphate.

During infection viruses hijack host cell metabolism to promote their replication. Here, analysis of metabolite alterations in macrophages exposed to poly I:C recognises that the antiviral effector Protein Kinase RNA-activated (PKR) suppresses glucose breakdown within the pentose phosphate pathway (PPP). This pathway runs parallel to central glycolysis and is critical to producing NADPH and pentose precursors for nucleotides. Changes in metabolite levels between wild-type and PKR-ablated macrophages show that PKR controls the generation of ribose 5-phosphate, in a manner distinct from its established function in gene expression but dependent on its kinase activity. PKR phosphorylates and inhibits the Ribose 5-Phosphate Isomerase A (RPIA), thereby preventing interconversion of ribulose- to ribose 5-phosphate. This activity preserves redox control but decreases production of ribose 5-phosphate for nucleotide biosynthesis. Accordingly, the PKR-mediated immune response to RNA suppresses nucleic acid production. In line, pharmacological targeting of the PPP during infection decreases the replication of the Herpes simplex virus. These results identify an immune response-mediated control of host cell metabolism and suggest targeting the RPIA as a potential innovative antiviral treatment.

Cognitive trajectories and incident dementia after a cardiovascular event in older adults.

INTRODUCTION: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a recognized risk factor for dementia. Here we determined the extent to which an incident CVD event modifies the trajectory of cognitive function and risk of dementia. METHODS: 19,114 adults (65+) without CVD or dementia were followed prospectively over 9 years. Incident CVD (fatal coronary heart disease, nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI], stroke, hospitalization for heart failure) and dementia (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition criteria) were adjudicated by experts. RESULTS: Nine hundred twenty-two participants had incident CVD, and 44 developed dementia after CVD (4.9% vs. 4.4% for participants without CVD). Following a CVD event there was a short-term drop in processing speed (-1.97, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.57 to -1.41), but there was no significant association with longer-term processing speed. In contrast, faster declines in trajectories of global function (-0.56, 95% CI: -0.76 to -0.36), episodic memory (-0.10, 95% CI: -0.16 to -0.04), and verbal fluency (-0.19, 95% CI: -0.30 to -0.01) were observed. DISCUSSION: Findings highlight the importance of monitoring cognition after a CVD event.

Major GI bleeding in older persons using aspirin: incidence and risk factors in the ASPREE randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: There is a lack of robust data on significant gastrointestinal bleeding in older people using aspirin. We calculated the incidence, risk factors and absolute risk using data from a large randomised, controlled trial. DESIGN: Data were extracted from an aspirin versus placebo primary prevention trial conducted throughout 2010-2017 ('ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE)', n=19 114) in community-dwelling persons aged ≥70 years. Clinical characteristics were collected at baseline and annually. The endpoint was major GI bleeding that resulted in transfusion, hospitalisation, surgery or death, adjudicated independently by two physicians blinded to trial arm. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 4.7 years (88 389 person years), there were 137 upper GI bleeds (89 in aspirin arm and 48 in placebo arm, HR 1.87, 95% CI 1.32 to 2.66, p<0.01) and 127 lower GI bleeds (73 in aspirin and 54 in placebo arm, HR 1.36, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.94, p=0.08) reflecting a 60% increase in bleeding overall. There were two fatal bleeds in the placebo arm. Multivariable analyses indicated age, smoking, hypertension, chronic kidney disease and obesity increased bleeding risk. The absolute 5-year risk of bleeding was 0.25% (95% CI 0.16% to 0.37%) for a 70 year old not on aspirin and up to 5.03% (2.56% to 8.73%) for an 80 year old taking aspirin with additional risk factors. CONCLUSION: Aspirin increases overall GI bleeding risk by 60%; however, the 5-year absolute risk of serious bleeding is modest in younger, well individuals. These data may assist patients and their clinicians to make informed decisions about prophylactic use of aspirin. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ASPREE. NCT01038583.

Predictive Performance of a Polygenic Risk Score for Incident Ischemic Stroke in a Healthy Older Population.

Background and Purpose: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can be used to predict ischemic stroke (IS). However, further validation of PRS performance is required in independent populations, particularly older adults in whom the majority of strokes occur. Methods: We predicted risk of incident IS events in a population of 12 792 healthy older individuals enrolled in the ASPREE trial (Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly). The PRS was calculated using 3.6 million genetic variants. Participants had no previous history of cardiovascular events, dementia, or persistent physical disability at enrollment. The primary outcome was IS over 5 years, with stroke subtypes as secondary outcomes. A multivariable model including conventional risk factors was applied and reevaluated after adding PRS. Area under the curve and net reclassification were evaluated. Results: At baseline, mean population age was 75 years. In total, 173 incident IS events occurred over a median follow-up of 4.7 years. When PRS was added to the multivariable model as a continuous variable, it was independently associated with IS (hazard ratio, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.20­1.65] per SD of the PRS; P<0.001). The PRS alone was a better discriminator for IS events than most conventional risk factors. PRS as a categorical variable was a significant predictor in the highest tertile (hazard ratio, 1.74; P=0.004) compared with the lowest. The area under the curve of the conventional model was 66.6% (95% CI, 62.2­71.1) and after inclusion of the PRS, improved to 68.5 ([95% CI, 64.0­73.0] P=0.095). In subgroup analysis, the continuous PRS remained an independent predictor for large vessel and cardioembolic stroke subtypes but not for small vessel stroke. Reclassification was improved, as the continuous net reclassification index after adding PRS to the conventional model was 0.25 (95% CI, 0.17­0.43). Conclusions: PRS predicts incident IS in a healthy older population but only moderately improves prediction over conventional risk factors. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01038583.

Structure of the N-terminal domain of human thioredoxin-interacting protein.

Thioredoxin-interacting protein (TXNIP) is one of the six known α-arrestins and has recently received considerable attention owing to its involvement in redox signalling and metabolism. Various stress stimuli such as high glucose, heat shock, UV, H2O2 and mechanical stress among others robustly induce the expression of TXNIP, resulting in the sequestration and inactivation of thioredoxin, which in turn leads to cellular oxidative stress. While TXNIP is the only α-arrestin known to bind thioredoxin, TXNIP and two other α-arrestins, Arrdc4 and Arrdc3, have been implicated in metabolism. Furthermore, owing to its roles in the pathologies of diabetes and cardiovascular disease, TXNIP is considered to be a promising drug target. Based on their amino-acid sequences, TXNIP and the other α-arrestins are remotely related to ß-arrestins. Here, the crystal structure of the N-terminal domain of TXNIP is reported. It provides the first structural information on any of the α-arrestins and reveals that although TXNIP adopts a ß-arrestin fold as predicted, it is structurally more similar to Vps26 proteins than to ß-arrestins, while sharing below 15% pairwise sequence identity with either.

Expanded statistical analysis plan for legacy and long-term effects of aspirin in the ASPREE-XT observational follow-up study of participants in the ASPREE randomized trial.

The ASPREE randomized controlled trial (2010-2017) of 19,114 community-dwelling older adults without cardiovascular disease and significant disability compared daily 100mg aspirin to placebo. A total of 16,317 (93%) of 17,546 surviving and non-withdrawn participants agreed to continue regular study follow-up visits in the post-trial phase, named ASPREE-XT (2017-2024). We present a statistical analysis plan to underpin three main papers to report aspirin effects through to the fourth post-trial ASPREE-XT study visit with focus areas of: (1) death, dementia, and disability, (2) CVD events and bleeding, and (3) cancer. The focus of the plan is to estimate long-term (entire timespan of RCT plus post-trial) and legacy (post-trial period only) effects of aspirin in the setting of primary prevention for older individuals. Preliminary insights to these effects are presented that are based on data that has been reported to the study's observational study monitoring board however formal data lock is not expected until October 2023.

Association of metformin, aspirin, and cancer incidence with mortality risk in adults with diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Metformin and aspirin are commonly co-prescribed to people with diabetes. Metformin may prevent cancer, but in older people (over 70 years), aspirin has been found to increase cancer mortality. This study examined whether metformin reduces cancer mortality and incidence in older people with diabetes; it used randomization to 100 mg aspirin or placebo in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial to quantify aspirin's impact on metformin users. METHODS: Analysis included community-dwelling ASPREE participants (aged ≥70 years, or ≥65 years for members of US minority populations) with diabetes. Diabetes was defined as a fasting blood glucose level greater than 125 mg/dL, self-report of diabetes, or antidiabetic medication use. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to analyze the association of metformin and a metformin-aspirin interaction with cancer incidence and mortality, with adjustment for confounders. RESULTS: Of 2045 participants with diabetes at enrollment, 965 were concurrently using metformin. Metformin was associated with a reduced cancer incidence risk (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 0.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.51 to 0.90), but no conclusive benefit for cancer mortality (adjusted HR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.43 to 1.19). Metformin users randomized to aspirin had greater risk of cancer mortality compared with placebo (HR = 2.53, 95% CI = 1.18 to 5.43), but no effect was seen for cancer incidence (HR = 1.11, 95% CI = 0.75 to 1.64). The possible effect modification of aspirin on cancer mortality, however, was not statistically significant (interaction P = .11). CONCLUSIONS: In community-dwelling older adults with diabetes, metformin use was associated with reduced cancer incidence. Increased cancer mortality risk in metformin users randomized to aspirin warrants further investigation. ASPREE TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT01038583.

Association Between CKD and Major Hemorrhage in Older Persons: Data From the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly Randomized Trial.

Introduction: Data on the association between chronic kidney disease (CKD) and major hemorrhage in older adults are lacking. Methods: We used data from a double-blind randomized controlled trial of aspirin in persons aged ≥ 70 years with prospective capture of bleeding events, including hemorrhagic stroke and clinically significant bleeding. CKD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 and/or urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) ≥ 3 mg/mmol (26.6 mg/g). We compared bleeding rates in those with and without CKD, undertook multivariable analyses, and explored effect modification with aspirin. Results: Of 19,114 participants, 17,976 (94.0%) had CKD status recorded, of whom 4952 (27.5%) had CKD. Participants with CKD had an increased rate of major bleeding events compared with those without CKD (10.4/1000 vs. 6.3/1000 person-years [py], respectively) and increased bleeding risk (risk ratio [RR] 1.60; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.40, 1.90 for eGFR < 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2) and RR (2.10; 95% CI: 1.70, 2.50) for albuminuria. In adjusted analyses, CKD was associated with a 35% increased risk of bleeding (hazard ratio [HR] 1.37; 95% CI: 1.15, 1.62; P < 0.001). Other risk factors were older age, hypertension, smoking, and aspirin use. There was no differential effect of aspirin on bleeding by CKD status (test of interaction P = 0.65). Conclusion: CKD is independently associated with an increased risk of major hemorrhage in older adults. Increased awareness of modifiable risk factors such as discontinuation of unnecessary aspirin, blood pressure control, and smoking cessation in this group is warranted.

Molecular associations of response to the new-generation BTK inhibitor zanubrutinib in marginal zone lymphoma.

Using tissue whole exome sequencing (WES) and circulating tumor cell-free DNA (ctDNA), this Australasian Leukaemia & Lymphoma Group translational study sought to characterize primary and acquired molecular determinants of response and resistance of marginal zone lymphoma (MZL) to zanubrutinib for patients treated in the MAGNOLIA clinical trial. WES was performed on baseline tumor samples obtained from 18 patients. For 7 patients, ctDNA sequence was interrogated using a bespoke hybrid-capture next-generation sequencing assay for 48 targeted genes. Somatic mutations were correlated with objective response data and survival analysis using Fisher exact test and Kaplan-Meier (log-rank) method, respectively. Baseline WES identified mutations in 33 of 48 (69%) prioritized genes. NF-κB, NOTCH, or B-cell receptor (BCR) pathway genes were implicated in samples from 16 of 18 patients (89%). KMT2D mutations (n = 11) were most common, followed by FAT1 (n = 9), NOTCH1, NOTCH2, TNFAIP3 (n = 5), and MYD88 (n = 4) mutations. MYD88 or TNFAIP3 mutations correlated with improved progression-free survival (PFS). KMT2D mutations trended to worse PFS. Acquired resistance mutations PLCG2 (R665W/R742P) and BTK (C481Y/C481F) were detected in 2 patients whose disease progressed. A BTK E41K noncatalytic activating mutation was identified before treatment in 1 patient who was zanubrutinib-refractory. MYD88, TNFAIP3, and KMT2D mutations correlate with PFS in patients with relapsed/refractory MZL treated with zanubrutinib. Detection of acquired BTK and PLCG2 mutations in ctDNA while on therapy is feasible and may herald clinical disease progression. This trial was registered at https://anzctr.org.au/ as #ACTRN12619000024145.

Cancer Treatment Patterns and Factors Affecting Receipt of Treatment in Older Adults: Results from the ASPREE Cancer Treatment Substudy (ACTS).

INTRODUCTION: Cancer treatment planning in older adults is complex and requires careful balancing of survival, quality of life benefits, and risk of treatment-related morbidity and toxicity. As a result, treatment selection in this cohort tends to differ from that for younger patients. However, there are very few studies describing cancer treatment patterns in older cohorts. METHODS: We used data from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial and the ASPREE Cancer Treatment Substudy (ACTS) to describe cancer treatment patterns in older adults. We used a multivariate logistic regression model to identify factors affecting receipt of treatment. RESULTS: Of 1893 eligible Australian and United States (US) participants with incident cancer, 1569 (81%) received some form of cancer treatment. Non-metastatic breast cancers most frequently received treatment (98%), while haematological malignancy received the lowest rates of treatment (60%). Factors associated with not receiving treatment were older age (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.96), residence in the US (OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.22-0.54), smoking (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.40-0.81), and diabetes (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.39-0.80). After adjustment for treatment patterns in sex-specific cancers, sex did not impact receipt of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: This study is one of the first describing cancer treatment patterns and factors affecting receipt of treatment across common cancer types in older adults. We found that most older adults with cancer received some form of cancer treatment, typically surgery or systemic therapy, although this varied by factors such as cancer type, age, sex, and country of residence.

Mapping the intermedilysin-human CD59 receptor interface reveals a deep correspondence with the binding site on CD59 for complement binding proteins C8alpha and C9.

CD59 is a glycosylphosphatidylinositol-anchored protein that inhibits the assembly of the terminal complement membrane attack complex (MAC) pore, whereas Streptococcus intermedius intermedilysin (ILY), a pore forming cholesterol-dependent cytolysin (CDC), specifically binds to human CD59 (hCD59) to initiate the formation of its pore. The identification of the residues of ILY and hCD59 that form their binding interface revealed a remarkably deep correspondence between the hCD59 binding site for ILY and that for the MAC proteins C8α and C9. ILY disengages from hCD59 during the prepore to pore transition, suggesting that loss of this interaction is necessary to accommodate specific structural changes associated with this transition. Consistent with this scenario, mutants of hCD59 or ILY that increased the affinity of this interaction decreased the cytolytic activity by slowing the transition of the prepore to pore but not the assembly of the prepore oligomer. A signature motif was also identified in the hCD59 binding CDCs that revealed a new hCD59-binding member of the CDC family. Although the binding site on hCD59 for ILY, C8α, and C9 exhibits significant homology, no similarity exists in their binding sites for hCD59. Hence, ILY and the MAC proteins interact with common amino acids of hCD59 but lack detectable conservation in their binding sites for hCD59.

Crystallization and preliminary X-ray diffraction analysis of human endoplasmic reticulum aminopeptidase 2.

Endoplasmic reticulum aminopeptidase 2 (ERAP2) is a critical enzyme involved in the final processing of MHC class I antigens. Peptide trimming by ERAP2 and the other members of the oxytocinase subfamily is essential to customize longer precursor peptides in order to fit them to the correct length required for presentation on major histocompatibility complex class I molecules. While recent structures of ERAP1 have provided an understanding of the `molecular-ruler' mechanism of substrate selection, little is known about the complementary activities of its homologue ERAP2 despite their sharing 49% sequence identity. In order to gain insights into the structure-function relationship of the oxytocinase subfamily, and in particular ERAP2, the luminal region of human ERAP2 has been crystallized in the presence of the inhibitor bestatin. The crystals belonged to an orthorhombic space group and diffracted anisotropically to 3.3 Å resolution in the best direction on an in-house X-ray source. A molecular-replacement solution suggested that the enzyme has adopted the closed state as has been observed in other inhibitor-bound aminopeptidase structures.

Genomic Risk Score for Advanced Osteoarthritis in Older Adults.

OBJECTIVE: Prevention of osteoarthritis (OA) remains important, as there are no disease-modifying treatments. A personalized approach has the potential to better target prevention strategies. In the present study, we used recently identified genetic risk variants from genome-wide association analysis for advanced OA to calculate polygenic risk scores (PRS) for knee and hip OA and assessed PRS performance in an independent population of older community-dwelling adults. METHODS: PRS were calculated in 12,093 individuals of European genetic descent ages ≥70 years who were enrolled in the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly trial. The outcome measure was knee and hip replacement (hospitalizations during the trial and self-reported joint replacements before enrollment). PRS were considered as continuous (per SD) and categorical (low risk [0-20%], medium risk [21-80%], high risk [81-100%]) variables. Logistic regression was used to examine associations between PRS and risk of joint replacement, adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: Among the participants, 1,422 (11.8%) had knee replacements and 1,297 (10.7%) had hip replacements. PRS (per SD) were associated with a risk of knee replacement (odds ratio [OR] 1.13 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.07-1.20]) and hip replacement (OR 1.23 [95% CI 1.16-1.30]). Participants with high PRS had an increased risk of knee replacement (OR 1.44 [95% CI 1.20-1.73]) and hip replacement (OR 1.88 [95% CI 1.56-2.26]), compared to those with low PRS. Associations were stronger for PRS and hip replacement risk in women than in men. Associations were similar in sensitivity analyses that examined joint replacements before and during the trial separately. CONCLUSION: PRS have the potential to improve prevention of severe knee and hip OA by providing a personalized approach and identifying individuals who may benefit from early intervention.

Prognostic Value of a Polygenic Risk Score for Coronary Heart Disease in Individuals Aged 70 Years and Older.

BACKGROUND: The use of a polygenic risk score (PRS) to improve risk prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) events has been demonstrated to have clinical utility in the general adult population. However, the prognostic value of a PRS for CHD has not been examined specifically in older populations of individuals aged ≥70 years, who comprise a distinct high-risk subgroup. The objective of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of a PRS for incident CHD events in a prospective cohort of older individuals without a history of cardiovascular events. METHODS: We used data from 12 792 genotyped, healthy older individuals enrolled into the ASPREE trial (Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly), a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled clinical trial investigating the effect of daily 100 mg aspirin on disability-free survival. Participants had no previous history of diagnosed atherothrombotic cardiovascular events, dementia, or persistent physical disability at enrollment. We calculated a PRS (meta-genomic risk score) consisting of 1.7 million genetic variants. The primary outcome was a composite of incident myocardial infarction or CHD death over 5 years. RESULTS: At baseline, the median population age was 73.9 years, and 54.9% were female. In total, 254 incident CHD events occurred. When the PRS was added to conventional risk factors, it was independently associated with CHD (hazard ratio, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.08-1.42], P=0.002). The area under the curve of the conventional model was 70.53 (95% CI, 67.00-74.06), and after inclusion of the PRS increased to 71.78 (95% CI, 68.32-75.24, P=0.019), demonstrating improved prediction. Reclassification was also improved, as the continuous net reclassification index after adding PRS to the conventional model was 0.25 (95% CI, 0.15-0.28). CONCLUSION: A PRS for CHD performs well in older people and improves prediction over conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Our study provides evidence that genomic risk prediction for CHD has clinical utility in individuals aged 70 years and older. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01038583.

Aspirin for Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Events in Relation to Lipoprotein(a) Genotypes.

BACKGROUND: The role of aspirin in reducing lipoprotein(a)-mediated atherothrombotic events in primary prevention is not established. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to assess whether low-dose aspirin benefits individuals with elevated plasma lipoprotein(a)-associated genotypes in the setting of primary prevention. METHODS: The study analyzed 12,815 genotyped individuals ≥70 years of age of European ancestry and without prior cardiovascular disease events enrolled in the ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) randomized controlled trial of 100 mg/d aspirin. We defined lipoprotein(a)-associated genotypes using rs3798220-C carrier status and quintiles of a lipoprotein(a) genomic risk score (LPA-GRS). We tested for interaction between genotypes and aspirin allocation in Cox proportional hazards models for incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and clinically significant bleeding. We also examined associations in the aspirin and placebo arms of the trial separately. RESULTS: During a median 4.7 years (IQR: 3.6-5.7 years) of follow-up, 435 MACE occurred, with an interaction observed between rs3798220-C and aspirin allocation (P = 0.049). rs3798220-C carrier status was associated with increased MACE risk in the placebo group (HR: 1.90; 95% CI: 1.11-3.24) but not in the aspirin group (HR: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.17-1.70). High LPA-GRS (vs low) was associated with increased MACE risk in the placebo group (HR: 1.70; 95% CI: 1.14-2.55), with risk attenuated in the aspirin group (HR: 1.41; 95% CI: 0.90-2.23), but the interaction was not statistically significant. In all participants, aspirin reduced MACE by 1.7 events per 1,000 person-years and increased clinically significant bleeding by 1.7 events per 1,000 person-years. However, in the rs3798220-C and high LPA-GRS subgroups, aspirin reduced MACE by 11.4 and 3.3 events per 1,000 person-years respectively, without significantly increased bleeding risk. CONCLUSIONS: Aspirin may benefit older individuals with elevated lipoprotein(a) genotypes in primary prevention.

Integrated clinical and genomic evaluation of guadecitabine (SGI-110) in peripheral T-cell lymphoma.

Peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PTCL) is a rare, heterogenous malignancy with dismal outcomes at relapse. Hypomethylating agents (HMA) have an emerging role in PTCL, supported by shared mutations with myelodysplasia (MDS). Response rates to azacitidine in PTCL of follicular helper cell origin are promising. Guadecitabine is a decitabine analogue with efficacy in MDS. In this phase II, single-arm trial, PTCL patients received guadecitabine on days 1-5 of 28-day cycles. Primary end points were overall response rate (ORR) and safety. Translational sub-studies included cell free plasma DNA sequencing and functional genomic screening using an epigenetically-targeted CRISPR/Cas9 library to identify response predictors. Among 20 predominantly relapsed/refractory patients, the ORR was 40% (10% complete responses). Most frequent grade 3-4 adverse events were neutropenia and thrombocytopenia. At 10 months median follow-up, median progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were 2.9 and 10.4 months respectively. RHOAG17V mutations associated with improved PFS (median 5.47 vs. 1.35 months; Wilcoxon p = 0.02, Log-Rank p = 0.06). 4/7 patients with TP53 variants responded. Deletion of the histone methyltransferase SETD2 sensitised to HMA but TET2 deletion did not. Guadecitabine conveyed an acceptable ORR and toxicity profile; decitabine analogues may provide a backbone for future combinatorial regimens co-targeting histone methyltransferases.

A multistate model of health transitions in older people: a secondary analysis of ASPREE clinical trial data.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the nature of transitions from a healthy state to chronic diseases and death is important for planning health-care system requirements and interventions. We aimed to quantify the trajectories of disease and disability in a population of healthy older people. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from the ASPREE trial, which was done in 50 sites in Australia and the USA and recruited community-dwelling, healthy individuals who were aged 70 years or older (≥65 years for Black and Hispanic people in the USA) between March 10, 2010, and Dec 24, 2014. Participants were followed up with annual face-to-face visits, biennial assessments of cognitive function, and biannual visits for physical function until death or June 12, 2017, whichever occurred first. We used multistate models to examine transitions from a healthy state to first intermediate disease events (ie, cancer events, stroke events, cardiac events, and physical disability or dementia) and, ultimately, to death. We also examined the effects of age and sex on transition rates using Cox proportional hazards regression models. FINDINGS: 19 114 participants with a median age of 74·0 years (IQR 71·6-77·7) were included in our analyses. During a median follow-up of 4·7 years (IQR 3·6-5·7), 1933 (10·1%) of 19 114 participants had an incident cancer event, 487 (2·5%) had an incident cardiac event, 398 (2·1%) had an incident stroke event, 924 (4·8%) developed persistent physical disability or dementia, and 1052 (5·5%) died. 15 398 (80·6%) individuals did not have any of these events during follow-up. The highest proportion of deaths followed incident cancer (501 [47·6%] of 1052) and 129 (12·3%) participants transitioned from disability or dementia to death. Among 12 postulated transitions, transitions from the intermediate states to death had much higher rates than transitions from a healthy state to death. The progression rates to death were 158 events per 1000 person-years (95% CI 144-172) from cancer, 112 events per 1000 person-years (86-145) from stroke, 88 events per 1000 person-years (68-111) from cardiac disease, 69 events per 1000 person-years (58-82) from disability or dementia, and four events per 1000 person-years (4-5) from a healthy state. Age was significantly associated with an accelerated rate for most transitions. Male sex (vs female sex) was significantly associated with an accelerate rate for five of 12 transitions. INTERPRETATION: We describe a multistate model in a healthy older population in whom the most common transition was from a healthy state to cancer. Our findings provide unique insights into the frequency of events, their transition rates, and the impact of age and sex. These results have implications for preventive health interventions and planning for appropriate levels of residential care in healthy ageing populations. FUNDING: The National Institutes of Health.