Examining the effect of interventions in emergency care for older people using a system dynamics decision support tool.

BACKGROUND: Rising demand for Emergency and Urgent Care is a major international issue and outcomes for older people remain sub-optimal. Embarking upon large-scale service development is costly in terms of time, energy and resources with no guarantee of improved outcomes; computer simulation modelling offers an alternative, low risk and lower cost approach to explore possible interventions. METHOD: A system dynamics computer simulation model was developed as a decision support tool for service planners. The model represents patient flow through the emergency care process from the point of calling for help through ED attendance, possible admission, and discharge or death. The model was validated against five different evidence-based interventions (geriatric emergency medicine, front door frailty, hospital at home, proactive care and acute frailty units) on patient outcomes such as hospital-related mortality, readmission and length of stay. RESULTS: The model output estimations are consistent with empirical evidence. Each intervention has different levels of effect on patient outcomes. Most of the interventions show potential reductions in hospital admissions, readmissions and hospital-related deaths. CONCLUSIONS: System dynamics modelling can be used to support decisions on which emergency care interventions to implement to improve outcomes for older people.

What influences decisions to transfer older care-home residents to the emergency department? A synthesis of qualitative reviews.

BACKGROUND: care home residents aged over 65 have disproportionate rates of emergency department (ED) attendance and hospitalisation. Around 40% attendances may be avoidable, and hospitalisation is associated with harms. We synthesised the evidence available in qualitative systematic reviews of different stakeholders' experiences of decisions to transfer residents to the ED. METHODS: six electronic databases, references and citations of included reviews and relevant policy documents were searched. Reviews of qualitative studies exploring factors that influenced care home staff, medical practitioners, residents' family or residents' experiences and factors influencing decisions to transfer residents to the ED were included. Thematic analysis was used to synthesise findings. RESULTS: six previous reviews were included, which synthesised the findings of 34 primary studies encompassing 152 care home residents, 283 resident family members or carers and 447 care home staff. Of the primary studies, 19 were conducted in the North America, seven in Australia, five were conducted in Scandinavia, two in the United Kingdom and one in Holland. Three themes were identified: (i) power dynamics between residents, family members, care home staff and health care professionals (external to the care home) influence decisions; (ii) admission can be necessary; however, (iii) some decisions may be driven by factors other than clinical need. CONCLUSION: transfer decisions are complex and are determined not just by changes in health status interventions aimed at reducing avoidable transfers need to address the key role family members have in transfer decisions, the medical legal fears of care home staff and barriers to accessing community services.

The impact of hypoglycaemia on the quality of life of family members of adults with type 1 or type 2 diabetes: A qualitative systematic review.

AIM: To summarize and critically appraise the recent qualitative evidence regarding the impact of hypoglycaemia on the quality of life of family members of adults with type 1 or type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Four databases were searched systematically (MEDLINE, PsycINFO, CINAHL and Cochrane Library), and results were screened for eligibility. Article quality was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist for Qualitative Research. Data were extracted, coded and analysed using thematic analysis. The systematic review was conducted in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) and Enhancing transparency in reporting of qualitative research (ENTREQ) guidelines. RESULTS: Eight qualitative studies were included in the final review. The majority of participants were partners or spouses of adults with type 1 diabetes. Thematic synthesis resulted in six analytical themes: 'Hypoglycaemia alters everyday life, reducing freedoms and increasing disruptions', 'Hypoglycaemia has an adverse impact on sleep', 'Hypoglycaemia negatively changes the relationship with the person with diabetes', 'Hypoglycaemia negatively impacts emotional well-being', 'The detection, prevention, and treatment of hypoglycaemia consumes time and energy' and 'Family members have unmet needs for informational and emotional support regarding hypoglycaemia'. Across the six analytical themes, family members described how hypoglycaemia has a severe negative impact on different aspects of their lives, including daily living, personal relationships and emotional well-being. CONCLUSIONS: Family members experience the impact of hypoglycaemia as a major recurrent challenge in their lives. The unmet needs of family members need further attention in research and clinical practice.

Improving outcomes for older people in the emergency department: a review of reviews.

BACKGROUND: There has been a recognised trend of increasing use of emergency and urgent care and emergency departments (EDs) by older people, which is marked by a substantial evidence base reporting interventions for this population and guidance from key organisations. Despite this, outcomes for this population remain suboptimal. A plethora of reviews in this area provides challenges for clinicians and commissioners in determining which interventions and models of care best meet people's needs. The aim of this review was to identify effective ED interventions which have been reported for older people, and to provide a clear summary of the myriad reviews and numerous intervention types in this area. METHODS: A review of reviews, reporting interventions for older people, either initiated or wholly delivered within the ED. RESULTS: A total of 15 review articles describing 83 primary studies met our content and reporting standards criteria. The majority (n=13) were systematic reviews (four using meta-analysis.) Across the reviews, 26 different outcomes were reported with inconsistency. Follow-up duration varied within and across the reviews. Based on how authors had reported results, evidence clusters were developed: (1) staff-focused reviews, (2) discharge intervention reviews, (3) population-focused reviews and (4) intervention component reviews. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence base describing interventions is weak due to inconsistent reporting, differing emphasis placed on the key characteristics of primary studies (staff, location and outcome) by review authors and varying quality of reviews. No individual interventions have been found to be more promising, but interventions initiated in the ED and continued into other settings have tended to result in more favourable patient and health service outcomes. Despite many interventions reported within the reviews being holistic and patient focused, outcomes measured were largely service focused. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: PROSPERO CRD42018111461.

Should Adults With Mild Head Injury Who Are Receiving Direct Oral Anticoagulants Undergo Computed Tomography Scanning? A Systematic Review.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Patients receiving direct oral anticoagulant medications commonly undergo computed tomography head scanning after mild traumatic brain injury, regardless of symptoms or signs. International guidelines have noted a lack of evidence to support management decisions for such patients. This systematic review aims to identify, appraise, and synthesize the current evidence for the risk of adverse outcome in patients receiving direct oral anticoagulants after mild head injury. METHODS: A protocol was registered with PROSPERO and review methodology followed Cochrane Collaboration recommendations. Studies of adult patients with mild head injury (Glasgow Coma Scale score 13 to 15) and who were receiving direct oral anticoagulants that reported the risk of adverse outcome after the head injury were eligible for inclusion. A comprehensive range of bibliographic databases and gray literature was examined with a sensitive search strategy. Selection of eligible studies, data extraction, and risk of bias were evaluated independently by separate reviewers. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to provide a pooled estimate of the risk of adverse outcome. The overall quality of evidence was assessed with the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation Working Group approach. RESULTS: A total of 4,886 articles were screened for inclusion, of which 7 cohort studies including 346 patients met inclusion criteria. All studies were at high or unclear risk of bias as a result of selection and information bias. Estimates of adverse outcome (any death, intracranial hematoma, or neurosurgery) ranged from 0.0% to 8.3%. A random-effects meta-analysis showed a weighted composite outcome risk of 3.7% (95% confidence interval 1.7% to 5.8%; I2=3.3%). The overall quality of the body of evidence was low as a result of imprecision, indirectness, and risk of bias. CONCLUSION: There are limited data available to characterize the risk of adverse outcome in patients receiving direct oral anticoagulants after mild traumatic brain injury. A sufficiently powered prospective cohort study is required to validly define this risk, identify clinical features predictive of adverse outcome, and inform future head injury guidelines.

Meeting the review family: exploring review types and associated information retrieval requirements.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The last decade has witnessed increased recognition of the value of literature reviews for advancing understanding and decision making. This has been accompanied by an expansion in the range of methodological approaches and types of review. However, there remains uncertainty over definitions and search requirements beyond those for the 'traditional' systematic review. This study aims to characterise health related reviews by type and to provide recommendations on appropriate methods of information retrieval based on the available guidance. METHODS: A list of review types was generated from published typologies and categorised into 'families' based on their common features. Guidance on information retrieval for each review type was identified by searching pubmed, medline and Google Scholar, supplemented by scrutinising websites of review producing organisations. RESULTS: Forty-eight review types were identified and categorised into seven families. Published guidance reveals increasing specification of methods for information retrieval; however, much of it remains generic with many review types lacking explicit requirements for the identification of evidence. CONCLUSIONS: Defining review types and utilising appropriate search methods remain challenging. By familiarising themselves with a range of review methodologies and associated search methods, information specialists will be better equipped to select suitable approaches for future projects.

What do we know about different models of providing palliative care? Findings from a systematic review of reviews.

BACKGROUND: A wide range of organisational models of palliative care exist. However, decision makers need more information about which models are likely to be most effective in different settings and for different patient groups. AIM: To identify the existing range of models of palliative care that have been evaluated, what is already known and what further information is essential if the most effective and cost-effective models are to be identified and replicated more widely. DESIGN: A review of systematic and narrative reviews according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Study quality was assessed using the AMSTAR (A MeaSurement Tool to Assess Reviews) tool. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and ASSIA were searched for reviews about models of service provision from 2000 to 2014 and supplemented with Google searches of the grey literature. RESULTS: Much of the evidence relates to home-based palliative care, although some models are delivered across care settings. Reviews report several potential advantages and few disadvantages of models of palliative care delivery. However, under-reporting of the components of intervention and comparator models are major barriers to the evaluation and implementation of models of palliative care. CONCLUSION: Irrespective of setting or patient characteristics, models of palliative care appear to show benefits and some models of palliative care may reduce total healthcare costs. However, much more detailed and systematic reporting of components and agreement about outcome measures is essential in order to understand the key components and successfully replicate effective organisational models.

Cost-effectiveness of screening for ovarian cancer amongst postmenopausal women: a model-based economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: The United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) was the biggest ovarian cancer screening trial to date. A non-significant effect of screening on ovarian cancer was reported, but the authors noted a potential delayed effect of screening, and suggested the need for four years further follow-up. There are no UK-based cost-effectiveness analyses of ovarian cancer screening. Hence we assessed the lifetime outcomes associated with, and the cost-effectiveness of, screening for ovarian cancer in the UK, along with the value of further research. METHODS: We performed a model-based economic evaluation. Effectiveness data were taken from UKCTOCS, which considered strategies of multimodal screening (MMS), ultrasound screening (USS) and no screening. We conducted systematic reviews to identify the remaining model inputs, and performed a rigorous and transparent prospective evaluation of different methods for extrapolating the effect of screening on ovarian cancer mortality. We considered costs to the UK healthcare system and measured effectiveness using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). We used value of information methods to estimate the value of further research. RESULTS: Over a lifetime, MMS and USS were estimated to be both more expensive and more effective than no screening. USS was dominated by MMS, being both more expensive and less effective. Compared with no screening, MMS cost on average £419 more (95% confidence interval £255 to £578), and generated 0.047 more QALYs (0.002 to 0.088). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) comparing MMS with no screening was £8864 per QALY (£2600 to £51,576). Alternative extrapolation methods increased the ICER, with the highest value being £36,769 (£13,888 to dominated by no screening). Using the UKCTOCS trial horizon, both MMS and USS were dominated by no screening, as they produced fewer QALYs at a greater cost. The value of research into eliminating all uncertainty in long-term effectiveness was estimated to be worth up to £20 million, or approximately £5 million for four years follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Screening for ovarian cancer with MMS is both more effective and more expensive than not screening. Compared to national willingness to pay thresholds, lifetime cost-effectiveness is promising, but there remains considerable uncertainty regarding extrapolated long-term effectiveness.

The role of social networks in the development of overweight and obesity among adults: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Although it is increasingly acknowledged that social networks are important to our understanding ofoverweight and obesity, there is limited understanding about the processes by which such networks shapetheir progression. This paper reports the findings of a scoping review of the literature that sought to identify the key processes through which social networks are understood to influence the development of overweight and obesity. METHODS: A scoping review was conducted. Forty five papers were included in the final review, the findings of which were synthesised to provide an overview of the main processes through which networks have been understood to influence the development of overweight and obesity. RESULTS: Included papers addressed a wide range of research questions framed around six types of networks: a paired network (one's spouse or intimate partner); friends and family (including work colleagues and people within social clubs); ephemeral networks in shared public spaces (such as fellow shoppers in a supermarket or diners in a restaurant); people living within the same geographical region; peers (including co-workers, fellow students, fellow participants in a weight loss programme); and cultural groups (often related toethnicity). As individuals are embedded in many of these different types of social networks at any one time, the pathways of influence from social networks to the development of patterns of overweight and obesity are likely to be complex and interrelated. Included papers addressed a diverse set of issues: body weight trends over time; body size norms or preferences; weight loss and management; physical activity patterns; and dietary patterns. DISCUSSION: Three inter-related processes were identified: social contagion (whereby the network in which people are embedded influences their weight or weight influencing behaviours), social capital (whereby sense of belonging and social support influence weight or weight influencing behaviours), and social selection (whereby a person's network might develop according to his or her weight). CONCLUSIONS: The findings have important implications for understanding about methods to target the spread of obesity, indicating that much greater attention needs to be paid to the social context in which people make decisions about their weight and weight influencing behaviours.

ITERATIVE SIFTING IN THE SELECTION OF RESEARCH EVIDENCE: IMPLICATIONS FOR REVIEWS AND OTHER DECISION PROBLEMS.

OBJECTIVES: A rapid scoping review was performed to support the development of a new clinical technology platform. An iterative sifting approach was adopted to address the challenges posed by the nature of the review question and the extremely large volume of search results to be sifted within the timescales of the review. METHODS: This study describes the iterative sifting approach applied in the scoping review and a preliminary validation of the methods applied. RESULTS: The searches performed for the rapid scoping review retrieved 27,198 records. This was the full set of records subjected to the staged, iterative sifting approach and the subsequent validation process. The iterative sifting approach involved the screening for relevance of 17,354 (i.e., 63.8 percent) of the 27,198 records. A list of fifty-three potential biomarker names was generated as a result of this iterative sifting method, of which nineteen were selected by clinical specialists for further scrutiny. The preliminary validation involved the exhaustive sifting of the remaining 9,844 previously unsifted records. The validation process identified sixteen additional potential biomarker names not identified by the iterative sifting process. The clinical specialists subsequently concluded that none were of further clinical interest. CONCLUSIONS: This study describes an approach to the screening of search records that can be successfully applied in appropriate review and decision problems to allow the prioritization of the most relevant search records and achieve time savings. Following further refinement and standardization, this iterative sifting method may have potential for further applications in reviews and other decision problems.

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of alcohol screening and brief interventions in primary care in England.

AIMS: To estimate the cost-effectiveness and resourcing implications of universal alcohol screening and brief intervention (SBI) programmes in primary care in England. METHODS: This was a health economic model, combining evidence of the effectiveness and health care resource requirements of SBI activities with existing epidemiological modelling of the relationship between alcohol consumption and health harms. RESULTS: Screening patients on registration with a family doctor would steadily capture ~40% of the population over a 10-year programme; screening patients at next primary care consultation would capture 96% of the population over the same period, but with high resourcing needs in the first year. The registration approach, delivered by a practice nurse, provides modest cost savings to the health care system of £120 m over 30 years. Health gains over the same period amount to 32,000 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). This SBI programme still appears cost-effective (at £6900 per QALY gained) compared with no programme, under pessimistic effectiveness assumptions. Switching to a consultation approach, delivered by a doctor, would incur an incremental net cost of £108 m, with incremental health gains equivalent to 92,000 QALYs, giving an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £1175 per QALY gained compared with current practice. CONCLUSION: A universal programme of alcohol SBI in primary care is estimated to be cost-effective, under all but the most pessimistic assumptions for programme costs and effectiveness. Policymakers should ensure that SBI programmes are routinely evaluated and followed up, given the substantial uncertainty over the effects of many of the implementation details.

Reducing unplanned hospital admissions from care homes: a systematic review.

Background: Care homes predominantly care for older people with complex health and care needs, who are at high risk of unplanned hospital admissions. While often necessary, such admissions can be distressing and provide an opportunity cost as well as a financial cost. Objectives: Our objective was to update a 2014 evidence review of interventions to reduce unplanned admissions of care home residents. We carried out a systematic review of interventions used in the UK and other high-income countries by synthesising evidence of effects of these interventions on hospital admissions; feasibility and acceptability; costs and value for money; and factors affecting applicability of international evidence to UK settings. Data sources: We searched the following databases in December 2021 for studies published since 2014: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews; Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature; Health Management Information Consortium; Medline; PsycINFO; Science and Social Sciences Citation Indexes; Social Care Online; and Social Service Abstracts. 'Grey' literature (January 2022) and citations were searched and reference lists were checked. Methods: We included studies of any design reporting interventions delivered in care homes (with or without nursing) or hospitals to reduce unplanned hospital admissions. A taxonomy of interventions was developed from an initial scoping search. Outcomes of interest included measures of effect on unplanned admissions among care home residents; barriers/facilitators to implementation in a UK setting and acceptability to care home residents, their families and staff. Study selection, data extraction and risk of bias assessment were performed by two independent reviewers. We used published frameworks to extract data on intervention characteristics, implementation barriers/facilitators and applicability of international evidence. We performed a narrative synthesis grouped by intervention type and setting. Overall strength of evidence for admission reduction was assessed using a framework based on study design, study numbers and direction of effect. Results: We included 124 publications/reports (30 from the UK). Integrated care and quality improvement programmes providing additional support to care homes (e.g. the English Care Homes Vanguard initiatives and hospital-based services in Australia) appeared to reduce unplanned admissions relative to usual care. Simpler training and staff development initiatives showed mixed results, as did interventions aimed at tackling specific problems (e.g. medication review). Advance care planning was key to the success of most quality improvement programmes but do-not-hospitalise orders were problematic. Qualitative research identified tensions affecting decision-making involving paramedics, care home staff and residents/family carers. The best way to reduce end-of-life admissions through access to palliative care was unclear in the face of inconsistent and generally low-quality evidence. Conclusions: Effective implementation of interventions at various stages of residents' care pathways may reduce unplanned admissions. Most interventions are complex and require adaptation to local contexts. Work at the interface between health and social care is key to successful implementation. Limitations: Much of the evidence identified was of low quality because of factors such as uncontrolled study designs and small sample size. Meta-analysis was not possible. Future work: We identified a need for improved economic evidence and the evaluation of integrated care models of the type delivered by hospital-based teams. Researchers should carefully consider what is realistic in terms of study design and data collection given the current context of extreme pressure on care homes. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO database CRD42021289418. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (award number NIHR133884) and will be published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 11, No. 18. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Older people living in care homes often have complex health problems such as dementia and frailty, and they may need to be taken to hospital at short notice. This can lead to them being admitted for further tests and treatment. We know that some of these unplanned hospital admissions might be avoided if health and social care services worked together to meet residents' needs. We looked for published research on methods (interventions) used in health and social care to reduce these admissions. Interventions could be carried out by care home staff, general practitioners, nurses, paramedics or other specialists individually or in teams. We asked which interventions have been evaluated, how strong is the evidence that they work and how acceptable they are to care home residents, family carers and staff. We also looked for information on how easy or difficult they are to implement and whether they represent good value for money. We included 124 research studies (30 from the UK). We found that integrated care programmes linking care homes with general practitioners and community services can be effective but need time and support (such as extra money and specialist staff) to implement them. Quality improvement programmes and training to improve staff skills may also reduce admissions. For care home residents nearing the end of life, advance care planning and palliative care can ensure that wishes are followed and avoid potentially burdensome admissions to hospital. Hospital-based teams providing 'outreach' services to care homes have been evaluated in Australia and could be suitable for UK research. We found limited evidence on interventions involving paramedics and on 'value for money'. We found many barriers to implementing new services in the UK, particularly staff shortages and high staff turnover, together with care homes closing down or changing ownership. Successful interventions have often been based on existing services and relationships.

Identifying models of care to improve outcomes for older people with urgent care needs: a mixed methods approach to develop a system dynamics model.

Background: We aimed to understand urgent and emergency care pathways for older people and develop a decision support tool using a mixed methods study design. Objective(s), study design, settings and participants: Work package 1 identified best practice through a review of reviews, patient, carer and professional interviews. Work package 2 involved qualitative case studies of selected urgent and emergency care pathways in the Yorkshire and Humber region. Work package 3 analysed linked databases describing urgent and emergency care pathways identifying patient, provider and pathway factors that explain differences in outcomes and costs. Work package 4 developed a system dynamics tool to compare emergency interventions. Results: A total of 18 reviews summarising 128 primary studies found that integrated social and medical care, screening and assessment, follow-up and monitoring of service outcomes were important. Forty patient/carer participants described emergency department attendances; most reported a reluctance to attend. Participants emphasised the importance of being treated with dignity, timely and accurate information provision and involvement in decision-making. Receiving care in a calm environment with attention to personal comfort and basic physical needs were key. Patient goals included diagnosis and resolution, well-planned discharge home and retaining physical function. Participants perceived many of these goals of care were not attained. A total of 21 professional participants were interviewed and 23 participated in focus groups, largely confirming the review evidence. Implementation challenges identified included the urgent and emergency care environment, organisational approaches to service development, staff skills and resources. Work package 2 involved 45 interviews and 30 hours of observation in four contrasting emergency departments. Key themes relating to implementation included: intervention-related staff: frailty mindset and behaviours resources: workforce, space, and physical environment operational influences: referral criteria, frailty assessment, operating hours, transport. context-related links with community, social and primary care organisation and management support COVID-19 pandemic. approaches to implementation service/quality improvement networks engaging staff and building relationships education about frailty evidence. The linked databases in work package 3 comprised 359,945 older people and 1,035,045 observations. The most powerful predictors of four-hour wait and transfer to hospital were age, previous attendance, out-of-hours attendance and call handler designation of urgency. Drawing upon the previous work packages and working closely with a wide range of patient and professional stakeholders, we developed an system dynamics tool that modelled five evidence-based urgent and emergency care interventions and their impact on the whole system in terms of reducing admissions, readmissions, and hospital related mortality. Limitations: Across the reviews there was incomplete reporting of interventions. People living with severe frailty and from ethnic minorities were under-represented in the patient/carer interviews. The linked databases did not include patient reported outcomes. The system dynamics model was limited to evidence-based interventions, which could not be modelled conjointly. Conclusions: We have reaffirmed the poor outcomes frequently experienced by many older people living with urgent care needs. We have identified interventions that could improve patient and service outcomes, as well as implementation tools and strategies to help including clinicians, service managers and commissioners improve emergency care for older people. Future work: Future work will focus on refining the system dynamics model, specifically including patient-reported outcome measures and pre-hospital services for older people living with frailty who have urgent care needs. Study registrations: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018111461. WP 1.2: University of Leicester ethics: 17525-spc3-ls:healthsciences, WP 2: IRAS 262143, CAG 19/CAG/0194, WP 3: IRAS 215818, REC 17/YH/0024, CAG 17/CAG/0024. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme [project number 17/05/96 (Emergency Care for Older People)] and will be published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 11, No. 14. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Many older people attending emergency care have poor outcomes; this project aimed to: describe best practice in emergency care understand how best practice might be delivered describe outcomes from emergency care, and synthesise this information in a computer simulation tool that can help teams decide which interventions might work best in their setting. The existing literature showed that holistic interventions (caring for the whole person), spanning emergency and community care, designed with the needs of older people in mind, work best. We checked these findings with front line clinicians, who agreed, but identified that implementing best practice in the emergency department was challenging. Limitations included the emergency department environment itself and the lack of staff with the right skillset. We also asked older people and their carers who had recently received emergency care what mattered. They prioritised basic needs such as comfort, communication, and timely care. They also stated that getting better, maintaining their usual level of function, and getting home safely were important outcomes. We then analysed data that linked together ambulance, emergency department, and hospital care in Yorkshire and Humber from 2011­17 for over 1 million emergency department attendances and hospital admissions. We found a novel and accurate predictor of long emergency department waits and hospital admission: the level of urgency according to the ambulance call handler. Drawing upon all the above and guided by a wide range of patient and professionals, we developed a computer model which allows emergency care teams to simulate different best practice emergency department interventions and estimate the impact on reducing admissions, readmissions, and hospital mortality. In summary, we have reaffirmed the poor outcomes experienced by many older people with urgent care needs. We have identified interventions that could improve patient and service outcomes, as well as implementation tools to help including clinicians, hospital managers and funders transform emergency care for older people.

Factors associated with increased Emergency Department transfer in older long-term care residents: a systematic review.

The proportion of adults older than 65 years is rapidly increasing. Care home residents in this age group have disproportionate rates of transfer to the Emergency Department (ED) and around 40% of attendances might be avoidable. We did a systematic review to identify factors that predict ED transfer from care homes. Six electronic databases were searched. Observational studies that provided estimates of association between ED attendance and variables at a resident or care home level were included. 26 primary studies met the inclusion criteria. Seven common domains of factors assessed for association with ED transfer were identified and within these domains, male sex, age, presence of specific comorbidities, polypharmacy, rural location, and care home quality rating were associated with likelihood of ED transfer. The identification of these factors provides useful information for policy makers and researchers intending to either develop interventions to reduce hospitalisations or use adjusted rates of hospitalisation as a care home quality indicator.

British Thoracic Society survey of rehabilitation to support recovery of the post-COVID-19 population.

OBJECTIVE: A proportion of those recovering from COVID-19 are likely to have significant and ongoing symptoms, functional impairment and psychological disturbances. There is an immediate need to develop a safe and efficient discharge process and recovery programme. Established rehabilitation programmes are well placed to deliver a programme for this group but will most likely need to be adapted for the post-COVID-19 population. The purpose of this survey was to rapidly identify the components of a post-COVID-19 rehabilitation assessment and elements of a successful rehabilitation programme that would be required to deliver a comprehensive service for those post-COVID-19 to inform service delivery. DESIGN: A survey comprising a series of closed questions and a free-text comment box allowing for a qualitative analysis. SETTING: Online survey. PARTICIPANTS: Multiprofessional clinicians across specialties were invited to take part. RESULTS: 1031 participants responded from a broad range of specialties. There was overwhelming support for an early posthospital discharge recovery programme to advise patients about the management of fatigue (95% agreed/strongly agreed), breathlessness (94%) and mood disturbances (including symptoms of anxiety and depression, 92%). At the time point of 6-8 weeks, an assessment was considered important, focusing on a broad range of possible symptoms and supporting a return to work. Recommendations for the intervention described a holistic programme focusing on symptom management, return of function and return to employment. The free-text comments added depth to the survey and the need 'not to reinvent the wheel' but rather adapt well-established rehabilitation services to individually tailor needs-based care with continued learning for service development. CONCLUSION: The responses indicate a huge interest and the urgent need to establish a programme to support and mitigate the long-term impact of COVID-19 by optimising and individualising existing rehabilitation programmes.

Digital and online symptom checkers and health assessment/triage services for urgent health problems: systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: In England, the NHS111 service provides assessment and triage by telephone for urgent health problems. A digital version of this service has recently been introduced. We aimed to systematically review the evidence on digital and online symptom checkers and similar services. DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: We searched Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Health Management Information Consortium, Web of Science and ACM Digital Library up to April 2018, supplemented by phrase searches for known symptom checkers and citation searching of key studies. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies of any design that evaluated a digital or online symptom checker or health assessment service for people seeking advice about an urgent health problem. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Data extraction and quality assessment (using the Cochrane Collaboration version of QUADAS for diagnostic accuracy studies and the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute tool for observational studies) were done by one reviewer with a sample checked for accuracy and consistency. We performed a narrative synthesis of the included studies structured around pre-defined research questions and key outcomes. RESULTS: We included 29 publications (27 studies). Evidence on patient safety was weak. Diagnostic accuracy varied between different systems but was generally low. Algorithm-based triage tended to be more risk averse than that of health professionals. There was very limited evidence on patients' compliance with online triage advice. Study participants generally expressed high levels of satisfaction, although in mainly uncontrolled studies. Younger and more highly educated people were more likely to use these services. CONCLUSIONS: The English 'digital 111' service has been implemented against a background of uncertainty around the likely impact on important outcomes. The health system may need to respond to short-term changes and/or shifts in demand. The popularity of online and digital services with younger and more educated people has implications for health equity. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42018093564.

Determination of midazolam and its major metabolite 1'-hydroxymidazolam by high-performance liquid chromatography-electrospray mass spectrometry in plasma from children.

We have developed a sensitive, selective and reproducible reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography method coupled with electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (HPLC-ESI-MS) for the simultaneous quantification of midazolam (MDZ) and its major metabolite, 1'-hydroxymidazolam (1'-OHM) in a small volume (200 microl) of human plasma. Midazolam, 1'-OHM and 1'-chlordiazepoxide (internal standard) were extracted from alkalinised (pH 9.5) spiked and clinical plasma samples using a single step liquid-liquid extraction with 1-chlorobutane. The chromatographic separation was performed on a reversed-phase HyPURITY Elite C18 (5 microm particle size; 100 mm x 2.1mm i.d.) analytical column using an acidic (pH 2.8) mobile phase (water-acetonitrile; 75:25% (v/v) containing formic acid (0.1%, v/v)) delivered at a flow-rate of 200 microl/min. The mass spectrometer was operated in the positive ion mode at the protonated-molecular ions [M+l]+ of parent drug and metabolite. Calibration curves in spiked plasma were linear (r2 > or = 0.99) from 15 to 600 ng/ml (MDZ) and 5-200 ng/ml (1'-OHM). The limits of detection and quantification were 2 and 5 ng/ml, respectively, for both MDZ and 1'-OHM. The mean relative recoveries at 40 and 600 ng/ml (MDZ) were 79.4+/-3.1% (n = 6) and 84.2+/-4.7% (n = 8), respectively; for 1'-OHM at 30 and 200 ng/ml the values were 89.9+/-7.2% (n = 6) and 86.9+/-5.6% (n = 8), respectively. The intra-assay and inter-assay coefficients of variation (CVs) for MDZ were less than 8%, and for 1'-OHM were less than 13%. There was no interference from other commonly used antimalarials, antipyretic drugs and antibiotics. The method was successfully applied to a pharmacokinetic study of MDZ and 1'-OHM in children with severe malaria and convulsions following administration of MDZ either intravenously (i.v.) or intramuscularly (i.m.).

Improving search efficiency for systematic reviews of diagnostic test accuracy: an exploratory study to assess the viability of limiting to MEDLINE, EMBASE and reference checking.

BACKGROUND: Increasing numbers of systematic reviews evaluating the diagnostic test accuracy of technologies are being published. Currently, review teams tend to apply conventional systematic review standards to identify relevant studies for inclusion, for example sensitive searches of multiple bibliographic databases. There has been little evaluation of the efficiency of searching only one or two such databases for this type of review. The aim of this study was to assess the viability of an approach that restricted searches to MEDLINE, EMBASE and the reference lists of included studies. METHODS: A convenience sample of nine Health Technology Assessment (HTA) systematic reviews of diagnostic test accuracy, with 302 included citations, was analysed to determine the number and proportion of included citations that were indexed in and retrieved from MEDLINE and EMBASE. An assessment was also made of the number and proportion of citations not retrieved from these databases but that could have been identified from the reference lists of included citations. RESULTS: 287/302 (95 %) of the included citations in the nine reviews were indexed across MEDLINE and EMBASE. The reviews' searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE accounted for 85 % of the included citations (256/302). Of the forty-six (15 %) included citations not retrieved by the published searches, 24 (8 %) could be found in the reference lists of included citations. Only 22/302 (7 %) of the included citations were not found by the proposed, more efficient approach. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed approach would have accounted for 280/302 (93 %) of included citations in this sample of nine systematic reviews. This exploratory study suggests that there might be a case for restricting searches for systematic reviews of diagnostic test accuracy studies to MEDLINE, EMBASE and the reference lists of included citations. The conduct of such reviews might be rendered more efficient by using this approach.

Preventing the progression to type 2 diabetes mellitus in adults at high risk: a systematic review and network meta-analysis of lifestyle, pharmacological and surgical interventions.

AIMS: Individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) have an increased risk of progression to Type 2 diabetes mellitus. The objective of this review was to quantify the effectiveness of lifestyle, pharmacological and surgical interventions in reducing the progression to Type 2 diabetes mellitus in people with IFG or IGT. METHODS: A systematic review was carried out. A network meta-analysis (NMA) of log-hazard ratios was performed. Results are presented as hazard ratios and the probabilities of treatment rankings. RESULTS: 30 studies were included in the NMA. There was a reduced hazard of progression to Type 2 diabetes mellitus associated with all interventions versus standard lifestyle advice; glipizide, diet plus pioglitazone, diet plus exercise plus metformin plus rosiglitazone, diet plus exercise plus orlistat, diet plus exercise plus pedometer, rosiglitazone, orlistat and diet plus exercise plus voglibose produced the greatest effects. CONCLUSIONS: Lifestyle and some pharmacological interventions are beneficial in reducing the risk of progression to Type 2 diabetes mellitus. Lifestyle interventions require significant behaviour changes that may be achieved through incentives such as the use of pedometers. Adverse events and cost of pharmacological interventions should be taken into account when considering potential risks and benefits.