Scalable de novo classification of antibiotic resistance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

MOTIVATION: World Health Organization estimates that there were over 10 million cases of tuberculosis (TB) worldwide in 2019, resulting in over 1.4 million deaths, with a worrisome increasing trend yearly. The disease is caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) through airborne transmission. Treatment of TB is estimated to be 85% successful, however, this drops to 57% if MTB exhibits multiple antimicrobial resistance (AMR), for which fewer treatment options are available. RESULTS: We develop a robust machine-learning classifier using both linear and nonlinear models (i.e. LASSO logistic regression (LR) and random forests (RF)) to predict the phenotypic resistance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) for a broad range of antibiotic drugs. We use data from the CRyPTIC consortium to train our classifier, which consists of whole genome sequencing and antibiotic susceptibility testing (AST) phenotypic data for 13 different antibiotics. To train our model, we assemble the sequence data into genomic contigs, identify all unique 31-mers in the set of contigs, and build a feature matrix M, where M[i, j] is equal to the number of times the ith 31-mer occurs in the jth genome. Due to the size of this feature matrix (over 350 million unique 31-mers), we build and use a sparse matrix representation. Our method, which we refer to as MTB++, leverages compact data structures and iterative methods to allow for the screening of all the 31-mers in the development of both LASSO LR and RF. MTB++ is able to achieve high discrimination (F-1 >80%) for the first-line antibiotics. Moreover, MTB++ had the highest F-1 score in all but three classes and was the most comprehensive since it had an F-1 score >75% in all but four (rare) antibiotic drugs. We use our feature selection to contextualize the 31-mers that are used for the prediction of phenotypic resistance, leading to some insights about sequence similarity to genes in MEGARes. Lastly, we give an estimate of the amount of data that is needed in order to provide accurate predictions. AVAILABILITY: The models and source code are publicly available on Github at https://github.com/M-Serajian/MTB-Pipeline.

DeepDynaForecast: Phylogenetic-informed graph deep learning for epidemic transmission dynamic prediction.

In the midst of an outbreak or sustained epidemic, reliable prediction of transmission risks and patterns of spread is critical to inform public health programs. Projections of transmission growth or decline among specific risk groups can aid in optimizing interventions, particularly when resources are limited. Phylogenetic trees have been widely used in the detection of transmission chains and high-risk populations. Moreover, tree topology and the incorporation of population parameters (phylodynamics) can be useful in reconstructing the evolutionary dynamics of an epidemic across space and time among individuals. We now demonstrate the utility of phylodynamic trees for transmission modeling and forecasting, developing a phylogeny-based deep learning system, referred to as DeepDynaForecast. Our approach leverages a primal-dual graph learning structure with shortcut multi-layer aggregation, which is suited for the early identification and prediction of transmission dynamics in emerging high-risk groups. We demonstrate the accuracy of DeepDynaForecast using simulated outbreak data and the utility of the learned model using empirical, large-scale data from the human immunodeficiency virus epidemic in Florida between 2012 and 2020. Our framework is available as open-source software (MIT license) at github.com/lab-smile/DeepDynaForcast.

Comorbidity Burden and Health Care Utilization by Substance use Disorder Patterns among People with HIV in Florida.

Substance use disorder (SUD), a common comorbidity among people with HIV (PWH), adversely affects HIV clinical outcomes and HIV-related comorbidities. However, less is known about the incidence of different chronic conditions, changes in overall comorbidity burden, and health care utilization by SUD status and patterns among PWH in Florida, an area disproportionately affected by the HIV epidemic. We used electronic health records (EHR) from a large southeastern US consortium, the OneFlorida + clinical research data network. We identified a cohort of PWH with 3 + years of EHRs after the first visit with HIV diagnosis. International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes were used to identify SUD and comorbidity conditions listed in the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). A total of 42,271 PWH were included (mean age 44.5, 52% Black, 45% female). The prevalence SUD among PWH was 45.1%. Having a SUD diagnosis among PWH was associated with a higher incidence for most of the conditions listed on the CCI and faster increase in CCI score overtime (rate ratio = 1.45, 95%CI 1.42, 1.49). SUD in PWH was associated with a higher mean number of any care visits (21.7 vs. 14.8) and more frequent emergency department (ED, 3.5 vs. 2.0) and inpatient (8.5 vs. 24.5) visits compared to those without SUD. SUD among PWH was associated with a higher comorbidity burden and more frequent ED and inpatient visits than PWH without a diagnosis of SUD. The high SUD prevalence and comorbidity burden call for improved SUD screening, treatment, and integrated care among PWH.

Who wants long-Acting injectable antiretroviral therapy? Treatment preferences among adults with HIV in Florida.

Long-acting injectable (LAI) antiretroviral therapy (ART) is available to people with HIV (PWH), but it is unknown which PWH prefer this option. Using the Andersen Behavioral Model this study identifies characteristics of PWH with greater preference for LAI ART. Cross-sectional data from the Florida Cohort, which enrolled adult PWH from community-based clinics included information on predisposing (demographics), enabling (transportation, income), and need (ART adherence <90%) factors. ART preference was assessed via a single question (prefer pills, quarterly LAI, or no preference). Confounder-adjusted multinomial logistic regressions compared those who preferred pills to the other preference options, with covariates identified using directed acyclic graphs. Overall, 314 participants responded (40% non-Hispanic Black, 62% assigned male, 63% aged 50+). Most (63%) preferred the hypothetical LAI, 23% preferred pills, and 14% had no preference. PWH with access to a car (aRRR 1.97 95%CI 1.05-3.71), higher income (aRRR 2.55 95%CI 1.04-6.25), and suboptimal ART adherence (aRRR 7.41 95% CI 1.52-36.23) were more likely to prefer the LAI, while those who reported having no social network were less likely to prefer the LAI (aRRR 0.32 95% CI 0.11-0.88). Overall LAI interest was high, with greater preference associated with enabling and need factors.

Spatial and temporal analysis of HIV clinical outcomes in Florida reveals counties with persistent racial and ethnic disparities during 2012-2019.

BACKGROUND: Racial/ethnic disparities in the HIV care continuum have been well documented in the US, with especially striking inequalities in viral suppression rates between White and Black persons with HIV (PWH). The South is considered an epicenter of the HIV epidemic in the US, with the largest population of PWH living in Florida. It is unclear whether any disparities in viral suppression or immune reconstitution-a clinical outcome highly correlated with overall prognosis-have changed over time or are homogenous geographically. In this analysis, we 1) investigate longitudinal trends in viral suppression and immune reconstitution among PWH in Florida, 2) examine the impact of socio-ecological factors on the association between race/ethnicity and clinical outcomes, 3) explore spatial and temporal variations in disparities in clinical outcomes. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Florida Department of Health for 42,369 PWH enrolled in the Ryan White program during 2008-2020. We linked the data to county-level socio-ecological variables available from County Health Rankings. GEE models were fit to assess the effect of race/ethnicity on immune reconstitution and viral suppression longitudinally. Poisson Bayesian hierarchical models were fit to analyze geographic variations in racial/ethnic disparities while adjusting for socio-ecological factors. RESULTS: Proportions of PWH who experienced viral suppression and immune reconstitution rose by 60% and 45%, respectively, from 2008-2020. Odds of immune reconstitution and viral suppression were significantly higher among White [odds ratio =2.34, 95% credible interval=2.14-2.56; 1.95 (1.85-2.05)], and Hispanic [1.70 (1.54-1.87); 2.18(2.07-2.31)] PWH, compared with Black PWH. These findings remained unchanged after accounting for socio-ecological factors. Rural and urban counties in north-central Florida saw the largest racial/ethnic disparities. CONCLUSIONS: There is persistent, spatially heterogeneous, racial/ethnic disparity in HIV clinical outcomes in Florida. This disparity could not be explained by socio-ecological factors, suggesting that further research on modifiable factors that can improve HIV outcomes among Black and Hispanic PWH in Florida is needed.

Real-World Effectiveness of Lung Cancer Screening Using Deep Learning-Based Counterfactual Prediction.

The benefits and harms of lung cancer screening (LCS) for patients in the real-world clinical setting have been argued. Recently, discriminative prediction modeling of lung cancer with stratified risk factors has been developed to investigate the real-world effectiveness of LCS from observational data. However, most of these studies were conducted at the population level that only measured the difference in the average outcome between groups. In this study, we built counterfactual prediction models for lung cancer risk and mortality and examined for individual patients whether LCS as a hypothetical intervention reduces lung cancer risk and subsequent mortality. We investigated traditional and deep learning (DL)-based causal methods that provide individualized treatment effect (ITE) at the patient level and evaluated them with a cohort from the OneFlorida+ Clinical Research Consortium. We further discussed and demonstrated that the ITE estimation model can be used to personalize clinical decision support for a broader population.

OCTOPUS: Disk-based, Multiplatform, Mobile-friendly Metagenomics Classifier.

Portable genomic sequencers such as Oxford Nanopore's MinION enable real-time applications in both clinical and environmental health, e.g., detection of bacterial outbreaks. However, there is a bottleneck in the downstream analytics when bioinformatics pipelines are unavailable, e.g., when cloud processing is unreachable due to absence of Internet connection, or only low-end computing devices can be carried on site. For instance, metagenomics classifiers usually require a large amount of memory or specific operating systems/libraries. In this work, we present a platform-friendly software for portable metagenomic analysis of Nanopore data, the Oligomer-based Classifier of Taxonomic Operational and Pan-genome Units via Singletons (OCTOPUS). OCTOPUS is written in Java, reimplements several features of the popular Kraken2 and KrakenUniq software, with original components for improving metagenomics classification on incomplete/sampled reference databases (e.g., selection of bacteria of public health priority), making it ideal for running on smartphones or tablets. We indexed both OCTOPUS and Kraken2 on a bacterial database with ~4,000 reference genomes, then simulated a positive (bacterial genomes from the same species, but different genomes) and two negative (viral, mammalian) Nanopore test sets. On the bacterial test set OCTOPUS yielded sensitivity and precision comparable to Kraken2 (94.4% and 99.8% versus 94.5% and 99.1%, respectively). On non-bacterial sequences (mammals and viral), OCTOPUS dramatically decreased (4- to 16-fold) the false positive rate when compared to Kraken2 (2.1% and 0.7% versus 8.2% and 11.2%, respectively). We also developed customized databases including viruses, and the World Health Organization's set of bacteria of concern for drug resistance, tested with real Nanopore data on an Android smartphone. OCTOPUS is publicly available at https://github.com/DataIntellSystLab/OCTOPUS and https://github.com/Ruiz-HCI-Lab/OctopusMobile.

Prediction of A. Baumannii Amikacin Resistance in Clinical Metagenomics.

Respiratory tract infections are a serious threat to health, especially in the presence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Existing AMR detection methods are limited by slow turnaround times and low accuracy due to the presence of false positives and negatives. In this study, we simulate 1,116 clinical metagenomics samples on both Illumina and Nanopore sequencing from curated, real-world sequencing of A. baumannii respiratory infections and build AI models to predict resistance to amikacin. The best performance is achieved by XGBoost on Illumina sequencing (area under the ROC curve = 0.7993 on 5-fold cross-validation).

Quantifying Health Outcome Disparity in Invasive Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Infection using Fairness Algorithms on Real-World Data.

This study quantifies health outcome disparities in invasive Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections by leveraging a novel artificial intelligence (AI) fairness algorithm, the Fairness-Aware Causal paThs (FACTS) decomposition, and applying it to real-world electronic health record (EHR) data. We spatiotemporally linked 9 years of EHRs from a large healthcare provider in Florida, USA, with contextual social determinants of health (SDoH). We first created a causal structure graph connecting SDoH with individual clinical measurements before/upon diagnosis of invasive MRSA infection, treatments, side effects, and outcomes; then, we applied FACTS to quantify outcome potential disparities of different causal pathways including SDoH, clinical and demographic variables. We found moderate disparity with respect to demographics and SDoH, and all the top ranked pathways that led to outcome disparities in age, gender, race, and income, included comorbidity. Prior kidney impairment, vancomycin use, and timing were associated with racial disparity, while income, rurality, and available healthcare facilities contributed to gender disparity. From an intervention standpoint, our results highlight the necessity of devising policies that consider both clinical factors and SDoH. In conclusion, this work demonstrates a practical utility of fairness AI methods in public health settings.

Demographics, Trends, and Clinical Characteristics of HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Recipients and People Newly Diagnosed with HIV from Large Electronic Health Records in Florida.

Florida is one of the HIV epicenters with high incidence and marked sociodemographic disparities. We analyzed a decade of statewide electronic health record/claims data-OneFlorida+-to identify and characterize pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) recipients and newly diagnosed HIV cases in Florida. Refined computable phenotype algorithms were applied and a total of 2186 PrEP recipients and 7305 new HIV diagnoses were identified between January 2013 and April 2021. We examined patients' sociodemographic characteristics, stratified by self-reported sex, along with both frequency-driven and expert-selected descriptions of clinical conditions documented within 12 months before the first PrEP use or HIV diagnosis. PrEP utilization rate increased in both sexes; higher rates were observed among males with sex differences widening in recent years. HIV incidence peaked in 2016 and then decreased with minimal sex differences observed. Clinical characteristics were similar between the PrEP and new HIV diagnosis cohorts, characterized by a low prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and a high prevalence of mental health and substance use conditions. Study limitations include the overrepresentation of Medicaid recipients, with over 96% of female PrEP users on Medicaid, and the inclusion of those engaged in regular health care. Although PrEP uptake increased in Florida, and HIV incidence decreased, sex disparity among PrEP recipients remained. Screening efforts beyond individuals with documented prior STI and high-risk behavior, especially for females, including integration of mental health care with HIV counseling and testing, are crucial to further equalize PrEP access and improve HIV prevention programs.

The Burden of Cancer and Pre-cancerous Conditions Among Transgender Individuals in a Large Healthcare Network.

The current study aimed to examine the prevalence of and risk factors for cancer and pre-cancerous conditions, comparing transgender and cisgender individuals, using 2012-2023 electronic health record data from a large healthcare system. We identified 2,745 transgender individuals using a previously validated computable phenotype and 54,900 matched cisgender individuals. We calculated the prevalence of cancer and pre-cancer related to human papillomavirus (HPV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), tobacco, alcohol, lung, breast, colorectum, and built multivariable logistic models to examine the association between gender identity and the presence of cancer or pre-cancer. Results indicated similar odds of developing cancer across gender identities, but transgender individuals exhibited significantly higher risks for pre-cancerous conditions, including alcohol-related, breast, and colorectal pre-cancers compared to cisgender women, and HPV-related, tobacco-related, alcohol-related, and colorectal pre-cancers compared to cisgender men. These findings underscore the need for tailored interventions and policies addressing cancer health disparities affecting the transgender population.

Dynamic Prognosis Prediction for Patients on DAPT After Drug-Eluting Stent Implantation: Model Development and Validation.

BACKGROUND: The rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) in conjunction with recent updates in dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) management guidelines emphasizes the necessity for innovative models to predict ischemic or bleeding events after drug-eluting stent implantation. Leveraging AI for dynamic prediction has the potential to revolutionize risk stratification and provide personalized decision support for DAPT management. METHODS AND RESULTS: We developed and validated a new AI-based pipeline using retrospective data of drug-eluting stent-treated patients, sourced from the Cerner Health Facts data set (n=98 236) and Optum's de-identified Clinformatics Data Mart Database (n=9978). The 36 months following drug-eluting stent implantation were designated as our primary forecasting interval, further segmented into 6 sequential prediction windows. We evaluated 5 distinct AI algorithms for their precision in predicting ischemic and bleeding risks. Model discriminative accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, among other metrics. The weighted light gradient boosting machine stood out as the preeminent model, thus earning its place as our AI-DAPT model. The AI-DAPT demonstrated peak accuracy in the 30 to 36 months window, charting an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 90% [95% CI, 88%-92%] for ischemia and 84% [95% CI, 82%-87%] for bleeding predictions. CONCLUSIONS: Our AI-DAPT excels in formulating iterative, refined dynamic predictions by assimilating ongoing updates from patients' clinical profiles, holding value as a novel smart clinical tool to facilitate optimal DAPT duration management with high accuracy and adaptability.

A Computable Phenotype for the Identification of Sexual and Gender Minorities in Electronic Health Records.

Sexual gender minorities, including lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) individuals face unique challenges due to discrimination, stigma, and marginalization, which negatively impact their well-being. Electronic health record (EHR) systems present an opportunity for LGB research, but accurately identifying LGB individuals in EHRs is challenging. Our study developed and validated a rule-based computable phenotype (CP) to identify LGB individuals and their subgroups using both structured data and unstructured clinical narratives from a large integrated health system. Validating against a sample of 537 chart-reviewed patients, our three best performing CP algorithms balancing different performance metrics, each achieved sensitivity of 1.000, PPV of 0.982, and F1-score of 0.875 in identifying LGB individuals, respectively. Applying the three best-performing CPs, our study also found that the LGB population is younger and experiences a disproportionate burden of adverse health outcomes, particularly mental health distress.