Machine Learning Models Prognosticate Functional Outcomes Better than Clinical Scores in Spontaneous Intracerebral Haemorrhage.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop and compare the use of deep neural networks (DNN) and support vector machines (SVM) to clinical prognostic scores for prognosticating 30-day mortality and 90-day poor functional outcome (PFO) in spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage (SICH). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 297 SICH patients between December 2014 and May 2016. Clinical data was collected from electronic medical records using standardized data collection forms. The machine learning workflow included imputation of missing data, dimensionality reduction, imbalanced-class correction, and evaluation using cross-validation and comparison of accuracy against clinical prognostic scores. RESULTS: 32 (11%) patients had 30-day mortality while 177 (63%) patients had 90-day PFO. For prognosticating 30-day mortality, the class-balanced accuracies for DNN (0.875; 95% CI 0.800-0.950; McNemar's p-value 1.000) and SVM (0.848; 95% CI 0.767-0.930; McNemar's p-value 0.791) were comparable to that of the original ICH score (0.833; 95% CI 0.748-0.918). The c-statistics for DNN (0.895; DeLong's p-value 0.715), and SVM (0.900; DeLong's p-value 0.619), though greater than that of the original ICH score (0.862), were not significantly different. For prognosticating 90-day PFO, the class-balanced accuracies for DNN (0.853; 95% CI 0.772-0.934; McNemar's p-value 0.003) and SVM (0.860; 95% CI 0.781-0.939; McNemar's p-value 0.004) were better than that of the ICH-Grading Scale (0.706; 95% CI 0.600-0.812). The c-statistic for SVM (0.883; DeLong's p-value 0.022) was significantly greater than that of the ICH-Grading Scale (0.778), while the c-statistic for DNN was 0.864 (DeLong's p-value 0.055). CONCLUSION: We showed that the SVM model performs significantly better than clinical prognostic scores in predicting 90-day PFO in SICH.

Prognostication of Outcomes in Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A Propensity Score-Matched Analysis with Support Vector Machine.

OBJECTIVE: The role of surgery in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (SICH) remains controversial. We aimed to use explainable machine learning (ML) combined with propensity-score matching to investigate the effects of surgery and identify subgroups of patients with SICH who may benefit from surgery in an interpretable fashion. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of a cohort of 282 patients aged ≥21 years with SICH. ML models were developed to separately predict for surgery and surgical evacuation. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values were calculated to interpret the predictions made by ML models. Propensity-score matching was performed to estimate the effect of surgery and surgical evacuation on 90-day poor functional outcomes (PFO). RESULTS: Ninety-two patients (32.6%) underwent surgery, and 57 patients (20.2%) underwent surgical evacuation. A total of 177 patients (62.8%) had 90-day PFO. The support vector machine achieved a c-statistic of 0.915 when predicting 90-day PFO for patients who underwent surgery and a c-statistic of 0.981 for patients who underwent surgical evacuation. The SHAP scores for the top 5 features were Glasgow Coma Scale score (0.367), age (0.214), volume of hematoma (0.258), location of hematoma (0.195), and ventricular extension (0.164). Surgery, but not surgical evacuation of the hematoma, was significantly associated with improved mortality at 90-day follow-up (odds ratio, 0.26; 95% confidence interval, 0.10-0.67; P = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Explainable ML approaches could elucidate how ML models predict outcomes in SICH and identify subgroups of patients who respond to surgery. Future research in SICH should focus on an explainable ML-based approach that can identify subgroups of patients who may benefit functionally from surgical intervention.

Personalised Dosing Using the CURATE.AI Algorithm: Protocol for a Feasibility Study in Patients with Hypertension and Type II Diabetes Mellitus.

Chronic diseases typically require long-term management through healthy lifestyle practices and pharmacological intervention. Although efficacious treatments exist, disease control is often sub-optimal leading to chronic disease-related sequela. Poor disease control can partially be explained by the 'one size fits all' pharmacological approach. Precision medicine aims to tailor treatments to the individual. CURATE.AI is a dosing optimisation platform that considers individual factors to improve the precision of drug therapies. CURATE.AI has been validated in other therapeutic areas, such as cancer, but has yet to be applied in chronic disease care. We will evaluate the CURATE.AI system through a single-arm feasibility study (n = 20 hypertensives and n = 20 type II diabetics). Dosing decisions will be based on CURATE.AI recommendations. We will prospectively collect clinical and qualitative data and report on the clinical effect, implementation challenges, and acceptability of using CURATE.AI. In addition, we will explore how to enhance the algorithm further using retrospective patient data. For example, the inclusion of other variables, the simultaneous optimisation of multiple drugs, and the incorporation of other artificial intelligence algorithms. Overall, this project aims to understand the feasibility of using CURATE.AI in clinical practice. Barriers and enablers to CURATE.AI will be identified to inform the system's future development.