Prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination efforts and dose allocation within Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: While mass COVID-19 vaccination programs are underway in high-income countries, limited availability of doses has resulted in few vaccines administered in low and middle income countries (LMICs). The COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) is a WHO-led initiative to promote vaccine access equity to LMICs and is providing many of the doses available in these settings. However, initial doses are limited and countries, such as Madagascar, need to develop prioritization schemes to maximize the benefits of vaccination with very limited supplies. There is some consensus that dose deployment should initially target health care workers, and those who are more vulnerable including older individuals. However, questions of geographic deployment remain, in particular associated with limits around vaccine access and delivery capacity in underserved communities, for example in rural areas that may also include substantial proportions of the population. METHODS: To address these questions, we developed a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and simulated various vaccination allocation strategies for Madagascar. Simulated strategies were based on a number of possible geographical prioritization schemes, testing sensitivity to initial susceptibility in the population, and evaluating the potential of tests for previous infection. RESULTS: Using cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 as the main outcome of interest, our results indicate that distributing the number of vaccine doses according to the number of elderly living in the region or according to the population size results in a greater reduction of mortality compared to distributing doses based on the reported number of cases and deaths. The benefits of vaccination strategies are diminished if the burden (and thus accumulated immunity) has been greatest in the most populous regions, but the overall strategy ranking remains comparable. If rapid tests for prior immunity may be swiftly and effectively delivered, there is potential for considerable gain in mortality averted, but considering delivery limitations modulates this. CONCLUSION: At a subnational scale, our results support the strategy adopted by the COVAX initiative at a global scale.

Performance and impact of GeneXpert MTB/RIF® and Loopamp MTBC Detection Kit® assays on tuberculosis case detection in Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis rapid molecular assays, including GeneXpert MTB/RIF® and Loopamp MTBC Detection Kit®, are highly sensitive and specific. Such performance does not automatically translate in improved disease control and highly depends on their use, local epidemiology and the diagnostic algorithms they're implemented within. We evaluate the performance of both assays and assess their impact on additional cases notification when implemented within WHO recommended tuberculosis diagnostic algorithms in Madagascar. METHODS: Five hundred forty eight presumptive pulmonary tuberculosis patients were prospectively recruited between November 2013 and December 2014 in Antananarivo, Madagascar, a high TB incidence sub-Saharan African urban setting. Both molecular assays were evaluated as first line or add-on testing following negative smear microscopy. Based on locally defined assay performance characteristics we measure the impact of both assays and WHO-recommended diagnostic algorithms on additional tuberculosis case notifications. RESULTS: High sensitivity and specificity was confirmed for both GeneXpert MTB/RIF® (86.6% (95% CI 81.1-90.7%) and 97.4% (95% CI 94.9-98.8%)) and Loopamp MTBC Detection Kit® (84.6% (95% CI 78.9-89.0%) and 98.4% (95% CI 96.2-99.4%)). Implementation of GeneXpert MTB/RIF® and Loopamp MTBC Detection Kit® increased tuberculosis diagnostic algorithms sensitivity from 73.6% (95% CI 67.1-79.3%) up to 88.1% (95% CI 82.8-91.9%). This increase was highest when molecular assays were used as add-on testing following negative smear microscopy. As add-on testing, GeneXpert MTB/RIF® and Loopamp MTBC Detection Kit® respectively improved case detection by 23.8 and 21.2% (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Including GeneXpert MTB/RIF® or Loopamp MTBC Detection Kit® molecular assays for TB detection on sputum samples from presumptive TB cases can significantly increase case notification in TB diagnostic centers. The TB case detection rate is further increased when those tests are use as second-line follow-on testing following negative smear microscopy results. A country wide scale-up and digital integration of molecular-based TB diagnosis assays shows promises for TB control in Madagascar.

[Antibiotic consumption at Antananarivo University Hospital: prevalence and strategic challenges]. / Consommation d’'antibiotiques au Centre Hospitalier Universitaire d’Antananarivo : prévalence et défis stratégiques.

INTRODUCTION: Very few studies have been conducted on antibiotic consumption in Madagascar. The objective of this study was to describe antibiotic consumption in a tertiary university hospital in Antananarivo, Madagascar to more clearly define good antibiotic use strategies. MATERIALS AND METHOD: A one-day prevalence survey was conducted on 5 April 2011 in the 339-bed Befelatanana Hospital with a bed occupation rate of 65.5%. RESULTS: The prevalence of antibiotic therapy among the 222 patients hospitalised on the day of the survey was 57.2%. Almost one half (49.6%) of patients received a combination of at least two antibiotics. The classes of antibiotics most commonly prescribed were beta-lactam antibiotics (55.3%), imidazoles (14.9%), aminoglycosides (14.9%), quinolones (7.9%) and macrolides with 7% of prescriptions. Penicillins accounted for 55.5% of all beta-lactam antibiotic prescriptions, followed by third-generation cephalosporins. Children under the age of 14 years (p<0.019) and patients with invasive devices (p<10(-6)) received more antibiotics. Antibiotic prescription in the Emergency Room­Intensive Care Unit was significantly higher than in the other wards (p<0.01). CONCLUSION: A high rate of antibiotic use was observed in Befelatanana University Hospital. Beta-lactam antibiotics were the agents most commonly prescribed and the Emergency Room­Intensive Care Unit was the leading antibiotic prescriber. It is essential to set up a good antibiotic use policy.

Implementation of an antibiotic resistance surveillance tool in Madagascar, the TSARA project: a prospective, observational, multicentre, hospital-based study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has become a significant public health threat. Without any interventions, it has been modelled that AMR will account for an estimated 10 million deaths annually by 2050, this mainly affects low/middle-income countries. AMR has a systemic negative perspective affecting the overall healthcare system down to the patient's personal outcome. In response to this issue, the WHO urged countries to provide antimicrobial stewardship programmes (ASPs). ASPs in hospitals are a vital component of national action plans for AMR, and have been shown to significantly reduce AMR, in particular in low-income countries such as Madagascar.As part of an ASP, AMR surveillance provides essential information needed to guide medical practice. We developed an AMR surveillance tool-Technique de Surveillance Actualisée de la Résistance aux Antimicrobiens (TSARA)-with the support of the Mérieux Foundation. TSARA combines bacteriological and clinical information to provide a better understanding of the scope and the effects of AMR in Madagascar, where no such surveillance tool exists. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A prospective, observational, hospital-based study was carried out for data collection using a standardised data collection tool, called TSARA deployed in 2023 in 10 hospitals in Madagascar participating in the national Malagasy laboratory network (Réseau des Laboratoires à Madagascar (RESAMAD)). Any hospitalised patient where the clinician decided to take a bacterial sample is included. As a prospective study, individual isolate-level data and antimicrobial susceptibility information on pathogens were collected routinely from the bacteriology laboratory and compiled with clinical information retrieved from face-to-face interviews with the patient and completed using medical records where necessary. Analysis of the local ecology, resistance rates and antibiotic prescription patterns were collected. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This protocol obtained ethical approval from the Malagasy Ethical Committee n°07-MSANP/SG/AGMED/CNPV/CERBM on 24 January 2023. Findings generated were shared with national health stakeholders, microbiologists, members of the RESAMAD network and the Malagasy academic society of infectious diseases.

The Re-Emergence of Rift Valley Fever in Mananjary District, Madagascar in 2021: A Call for Action.

An epizootic of rift valley fever (RVF) was suspected on 21 February 2021 in various districts of Madagascar, with a lab confirmation on 1 April 2021. A cross-sectional survey aiming to detect cases of RVF in humans and to study the circulation of rift valley fever virus (RVFV) in animals was conducted from 22 April to 4 May 2021 in the district of Mananjary. Blood samples from cattle and humans were tested using serological and molecular techniques. In cattle, the circulation of RVFV was confirmed between 5 February and 4 May 2021. The positivity rates of anti-RVFV IgG and IgM were 60% and 40%, respectively. In humans, the circulation of RVFV was observed from 1 April to 5 May 2021. The positivity rate of RVFV was estimated to be 11.7% by combining the results of the molecular and serological approaches. Of the 103 individuals who agreed to participate in the survey, 3 were determined to be positive by RT-PCR, and 10 had anti-RVFV IgM. Among them, one was positive for both. Given that previous studies have reported the circulation of RVFV during inter-epidemic periods and the occurrence of outbreaks due to imported RVFV in Madagascar, our findings suggest the importance of strengthening RVF surveillance from a "One Health" perspective by conducting syndromic and risk-based surveillance at the national and regional levels.

Predictors of tuberculosis treatment outcomes in Antananarivo: a retrospective cohort study.

Introduction: Tuberculosis (TB) is a global public health issue, affecting Africa and Madagascar. Adverse outcomes following ineffective treatment are common. Previous studies conducted in similar settings have not adequately accounted for confounding factors. The objective of this study is to identify predictive factors that are associated with tuberculosis treatment outcomes in Madagascar. Methods: a retrospective cohort study was conducted using registries of 628 outpatients with tuberculosis at the Analakely Hospital (CHUSSPA) in 2019. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed. Results: the study included 628 patients with a mean age of 37.19 ± 15.86 years and a sex ratio of 1.57. These patients were followed up for a total of 2886 person-months. Out of the 628, 517 achieved treatment success, while 31 patients died and 31 discontinued their treatment. The rates of treatment success, death, failure, and default were 82.3%, 4.9%, 0.2%, and 8.3% respectively. Female gender was found to be a predictor of treatment success area of responsibility adjusted odds ratio(AOR 1.67 [1.07-2.66]; p=0.026). Smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPTB) was associated with a lower likelihood of treatment success (AOR 0.38 [0.23-0.65]; p<0.001) and was a common factor for default (AOR 3.17 [1.60-6.21]; p=0.001) and death (AOR=8.03 [3.01-23.72; p<0.001]). Extra-pulmonary TB was identified as a predictor of death (AOR 5.15 [1.99-14.95]; p=0.001). Conclusion: the tuberculosis treatment indicators in this center have not yet met national and global targets. It is necessary to focus on early diagnosis, improving education, and implementing rigorous follow-up procedures for patients at high risk of adverse outcomes (SNPTB and extra-pulmonary tuberculosis(EPTB).

Existing human mobility data sources poorly predicted the spatial spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Madagascar.

For emerging epidemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic, quantifying travel is a key component of developing accurate predictive models of disease spread to inform public health planning. However, in many LMICs, traditional data sets on travel such as commuting surveys as well as non-traditional sources such as mobile phone data are lacking, or, where available, have only rarely been leveraged by the public health community. Evaluating the accuracy of available data to measure transmission-relevant travel may be further hampered by limited reporting of suspected and laboratory confirmed infections. Here, we leverage case data collected as part of a COVID-19 dashboard collated via daily reports from the Malagasy authorities on reported cases of SARS-CoV-2 across the 22 regions of Madagascar. We compare the order of the timing of when cases were reported with predictions from a SARS-CoV-2 metapopulation model of Madagascar informed using various measures of connectivity including a gravity model based on different measures of distance, Internal Migration Flow data, and mobile phone data. Overall, the models based on mobile phone connectivity and the gravity-based on Euclidean distance best predicted the observed spread. The ranks of the regions most remote from the capital were more difficult to predict but interestingly, regions where the mobile phone connectivity model was more accurate differed from those where the gravity model was most accurate. This suggests that there may be additional features of mobility or connectivity that were consistently underestimated using all approaches but are epidemiologically relevant. This work highlights the importance of data availability and strengthening collaboration among different institutions with access to critical data - models are only as good as the data that they use, so building towards effective data-sharing pipelines is essential.

[Prevalence of chronic kidney disease in Antananarivo, Madagascar]. / Prévalence de la maladie rénale chronique à Antananarivo, Madagascar.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic kidney disease is defined as an inability of the kidney to perform its normal functions and which persists beyond three months. Nowadays, the estimated glomerular filtration rate based on plasmatic creatinine level remains the gold standard to assess renal function. In Madagascar, we miss national data concerning the epidemiology of chronic kidney disease probably due to the complexity of carrying out the serum creatinine assays. The recent availability of creatinometer using a creatinine strip test with capillary creatinine facilitated the determination of the creatinine level in epidemiological study. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This simple technique allowed us to plan a pilot study in Antananarivo, the capital of Madagascar. The main objective was to assess the prevalence of chronic kidney disease determined from capillary creatinine level. The secondary objective was to determine the factors associated with chronic kidney disease in Madagascar. It is an analytical cross-sectional study over a period of three months. Chronic kidney disease is defined as a decrease of the glomerular filtration rate of capillary creatinine less than 60mL/min/1.73m2 and calculated with Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology formula (CKD-EPI). The minimum number of studied population has been assessed and settled at 210 people. Cluster sampling was performed for randomization of participants. RESULTS: At the end of the study, 210 people were randomized for screening. The average age was 40 years old with 14.9 as standard deviation. The sex ratio (male/female) was 1.76. The prevalence of chronic kidney disease was 13.8% with extreme values of 9,1 and 18.5. With chronic kidney disease, high blood pressure (hypertension) and diabetes were found respectively in 41.3 and 17.2%. Chronic kidney disease affected mainly in 72.4% of population aged 25 to 54 years old. CONCLUSION: This is the first study in Africa to screen chronic kidney disease using a creatinine strip test. This prevalence is relatively different compared to other African countries. The limits of the study are the absence of a subsequent control and/or double control of the creatinine, which definitively confirms the chronicity of kidney disease, the absence evaluation of the urinary sediments to determine proteinuria. Nevertheless, the results of our study can be used as data awaiting the results of a multicenter studies. To determine the national prevalence of chronic kidney disease, screening in the six provinces is currently in progress.

Epidemiological Patterns of Seasonal Respiratory Viruses during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Madagascar, March 2020-May 2022.

Three epidemic waves of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) occurred in Madagascar from March 2020 to May 2022, with a positivity rate of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) of 21% to 33%. Our study aimed to identify the impact of COVID-19 on the epidemiology of seasonal respiratory viruses (RVs) in Madagascar. We used two different specimen sources (SpS). First, 2987 nasopharyngeal (NP) specimens were randomly selected from symptomatic patients between March 2020 and May 2022 who tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 and were tested for 14 RVs by multiplex real-time PCR. Second, 6297 NP specimens were collected between March 2020 and May 2022 from patients visiting our sentinel sites of the influenza sentinel network. The samples were tested for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and SARS-CoV-2. From SpS-1, 19% (569/2987) of samples tested positive for at least one RV. Rhinovirus (6.3%, 187/2987) was the most frequently detected virus during the first two waves, whereas influenza predominated during the third. From SpS-2, influenza, SARS-CoV-2, and RSV accounted for 5.4%, 24.5%, and 39.4% of the detected viruses, respectively. During the study period, we observed three different RV circulation profiles. Certain viruses circulated sporadically, with increased activity in between waves of SARS-CoV-2. Other viruses continued to circulate regardless of the COVID-19 situation. Certain viruses were severely disrupted by the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Our findings underline the importance and necessity of maintaining an integrated disease surveillance system for the surveillance and monitoring of RVs of public health interest.

Existing human mobility data sources poorly predicted the spatial spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Madagascar.

For emerging epidemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic, quantifying travel is a key component of developing accurate predictive models of disease spread to inform public health planning. However, in many LMICs, traditional data sets on travel such as commuting surveys as well as non-traditional sources such as mobile phone data are lacking, or, where available, have only rarely been leveraged by the public health community. Evaluating the accuracy of available data to measure transmission-relevant travel may be further hampered by limited reporting of suspected and laboratory confirmed infections. Here, we leverage case data collected as part of a COVID-19 dashboard collated via daily reports from the Malagasy authorities on reported cases of SARS-CoV-2 across the 22 regions of Madagascar. We compare the order of the timing of when cases were reported with predictions from a SARS-CoV-2 metapopulation model of Madagascar informed using various measures of connectivity including a gravity model based on different measures of distance, Internal Migration Flow data, and mobile phone data. Overall, the models based on mobile phone connectivity and the gravity-based on Euclidean distance best predicted the observed spread. The ranks of the regions most remote from the capital were more difficult to predict but interestingly, regions where the mobile phone connectivity model was more accurate differed from those where the gravity model was most accurate. This suggests that there may be additional features of mobility or connectivity that were consistently underestimated using all approaches, but are epidemiologically relevant. This work highlights the importance of data availability and strengthening collaboration among different institutions with access to critical data - models are only as good as the data that they use, so building towards effective data-sharing pipelines is essential.

Variation in SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks across sub-Saharan Africa.

A surprising feature of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date is the low burdens reported in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries relative to other global regions. Potential explanations (for example, warmer environments1, younger populations2-4) have yet to be framed within a comprehensive analysis. We synthesized factors hypothesized to drive the pace and burden of this pandemic in SSA during the period from 25 February to 20 December 2020, encompassing demographic, comorbidity, climatic, healthcare capacity, intervention efforts and human mobility dimensions. Large diversity in the probable drivers indicates a need for caution in interpreting analyses that aggregate data across low- and middle-income settings. Our simulation shows that climatic variation between SSA population centers has little effect on early outbreak trajectories; however, heterogeneity in connectivity, although rarely considered, is likely an important contributor to variance in the pace of viral spread across SSA. Our synthesis points to the potential benefits of context-specific adaptation of surveillance systems during the ongoing pandemic. In particular, characterizing patterns of severity over age will be a priority in settings with high comorbidity burdens and poor access to care. Understanding the spatial extent of outbreaks warrants emphasis in settings where low connectivity could drive prolonged, asynchronous outbreaks resulting in extended stress to health systems.

Multi-country evaluation of RISK6, a 6-gene blood transcriptomic signature, for tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment monitoring.

There is a crucial need for non-sputum-based TB tests. Here, we evaluate the performance of RISK6, a human-blood transcriptomic signature, for TB screening, triage and treatment monitoring. RISK6 performance was also compared to that of two IGRAs: one based on RD1 antigens (QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus, QFT-P, Qiagen) and one on recombinant M. tuberculosis HBHA expressed in Mycobacterium smegmatis (IGRA-rmsHBHA). In this multicenter prospective nested case-control study conducted in Bangladesh, Georgia, Lebanon and Madagascar, adult non-immunocompromised patients with bacteriologically confirmed active pulmonary TB (ATB), latent TB infection (LTBI) and healthy donors (HD) were enrolled. ATB patients were followed-up during and after treatment. Blood RISK6 scores were assessed using quantitative real-time PCR and evaluated by area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC). RISK6 performance to discriminate ATB from HD reached an AUC of 0.94 (95% CI 0.89-0.99), with 90.9% sensitivity and 87.8% specificity, thus achieving the minimal WHO target product profile for a non-sputum-based TB screening test. Besides, RISK6 yielded an AUC of 0.93 (95% CI 0.85-1) with 90.9% sensitivity and 88.5% specificity for discriminating ATB from LTBI. Moreover, RISK6 showed higher performance (AUC 0.90, 95% CI 0.85-0.94) than IGRA-rmsHBHA (AUC 0.75, 95% CI 0.69-0.82) to differentiate TB infection stages. Finally, RISK6 signature scores significantly decreased after 2 months of TB treatment and continued to decrease gradually until the end of treatment reaching scores obtained in HD. We confirmed the performance of RISK6 signature as a triage TB test and its utility for treatment monitoring.

High variation expected in the pace and burden of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks across sub-Saharan Africa.

A surprising feature of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date is the low burdens reported in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries relative to other global regions. Potential explanations (e.g., warmer environments1, younger populations2-4) have yet to be framed within a comprehensive analysis accounting for factors that may offset the effects of climate and demography. Here, we synthesize factors hypothesized to shape the pace of this pandemic and its burden as it moves across SSA, encompassing demographic, comorbidity, climatic, healthcare and intervention capacity, and human mobility dimensions of risk. We find large scale diversity in probable drivers, such that outcomes are likely to be highly variable among SSA countries. While simulation shows that extensive climatic variation among SSA population centers has little effect on early outbreak trajectories, heterogeneity in connectivity is likely to play a large role in shaping the pace of viral spread. The prolonged, asynchronous outbreaks expected in weakly connected settings may result in extended stress to health systems. In addition, the observed variability in comorbidities and access to care will likely modulate the severity of infection: We show that even small shifts in the infection fatality ratio towards younger ages, which are likely in high risk settings, can eliminate the protective effect of younger populations. We highlight countries with elevated risk of 'slow pace', high burden outbreaks. Empirical data on the spatial extent of outbreaks within SSA countries, their patterns in severity over age, and the relationship between epidemic pace and health system disruptions are urgently needed to guide efforts to mitigate the high burden scenarios explored here.

Relevance of QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus and Heparin-Binding Hemagglutinin Interferon-γ Release Assays for Monitoring of Pulmonary Tuberculosis Clearance: A Multicentered Study.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading infectious cause of death. To improve treatment efficacy, quicker monitoring methods are needed. The objective of this study was to monitor the response to a heparin-binding hemagglutinin (HBHA) interferon-γ (IFN-γ) release assay (IGRA) and QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus (QFT-P) and to analyze plasma IFN-γ levels according to sputum culture conversion and immune cell counts during treatment. Methods: This multicentered cohort study was based in Bangladesh, Georgia, Lebanon, Madagascar, and Paraguay. Adult, non-immunocompromised patients with culture-confirmed pulmonary TB were included. Patients were followed up at baseline (T0), after two months of treatment (T1), and at the end of therapy (T2). Clinical data and blood samples were collected at each timepoint. Whole blood samples were stimulated with QFT-P antigens or recombinant methylated Mycobacterium tuberculosis HBHA (produced in Mycobacterium smegmatis; rmsHBHA). Plasma IFN-γ levels were then assessed by ELISA. Findings: Between December 2017 and September 2020, 132 participants completed treatment, including 28 (21.2%) drug-resistant patients. rmsHBHA IFN-γ increased significantly throughout treatment (0.086 IU/ml at T0 vs. 1.03 IU/ml at T2, p < 0.001) while QFT-P IFN-γ remained constant (TB1: 0.53 IU/ml at T0 vs. 0.63 IU/ml at T2, p = 0.13). Patients with low lymphocyte percentages (<14%) or high neutrophil percentages (>79%) at baseline had significantly lower IFN-γ responses to QFT-P and rmsHBHA at T0 and T1. In a small group of slow converters (patients with positive cultures at T1; n = 16), we observed a consistent clinical pattern at baseline (high neutrophil percentages, low lymphocyte percentages and BMI, low TB1, TB2, and MIT IFN-γ responses) and low rmsHBHA IFN-γ at T1 and T2. However, the accuracy of the QFT-P and rmsHBHA IGRAs compared to culture throughout treatment was low (40 and 65% respectively). Combining both tests improved their sensitivity and accuracy (70-80%) but not their specificity (<30%). Conclusion: We showed that QFT-P and rmsHBHA IFN-γ responses were associated with rates of sputum culture conversion. Our results support a growing body of evidence suggesting that rmsHBHA IFN-γ discriminates between the different stages of TB, from active disease to controlled infection. However, further work is needed to confirm the specificity of QFT-P and rmsHBHA IGRAs for treatment monitoring.