Temporal variation in the association between temperature and cause-specific mortality in 15 German cities.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence of temporal changes in the association between air temperature and the risk of cause-specific cardiovascular [CVD] and respiratory [RD] mortality. METHOD: We explored temporal variations in the association between short-term exposures to air temperature and non-accidental and cause-specific CVD and RD mortality in the 15 largest German cities over 24 years (1993-2016) using time-stratified time series analysis. We applied location-specific confounder-adjusted Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear models with a lag period of 14 days to estimate the temperature-mortality associations. We then pooled the estimates by a multivariate meta-analytical model. We analysed the whole study period and the periods 1993-2004 and 2005-16, separately. We also carried out age- and sex-stratified analysis. Cold and heat effects are reported as relative risk [RR] at the 1st and the 99th temperature percentile, relative to the 25th and the 75th percentile, respectively. RESULT: We analysed a total of 3,159,292 non-accidental, 1,063,198 CVD and 183,027 RD deaths. Cold-related RR for CVD mortality was seen to rise consistently over time from 1.04 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.02, 1.06) in the period 1993-2004 to 1.10 (95% CI 1.09, 1.11) in the period 2005-16. A similar increase in cold-related RR was also observed for RD mortality with risk increasing from 0.99 (95% CI 0.96, 1.03) to 1.07 (95% CI 1.03, 1.10). Cold-related ischemic, cerebrovascular, and heart failure mortality risk were seen to be increasing over time. Similarly, COPD, the commonly speculated driver of heat-related RD mortality was found to have a constant heat-related risk over time. Males were increasingly vulnerable to cold with time for all causes of death. Females showed increasing sensitivity to cold for CVD mortality. Our results indicated a significant increased cold and heat vulnerability of the youngest age-groups (<64) to non-accidental and RD mortality, respectively. Similarly, the older age group (>65) were found to have significantly increased susceptibility to cold for CVD mortality. CONCLUSION: We found evidence of rising population susceptibility to both heat- and cold-related CVD and RD mortality risk from 1993 to 2016. Climate change mitigation and targeted adaptation strategies might help to reduce the number of temperature-related deaths in the future.

A cross-sectional mixed-methods study of sexual and reproductive health knowledge, experiences and access to services among refugee adolescent girls in the Nakivale refugee settlement, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Humanitarian crises and migration make girls and women more vulnerable to poor sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes. Nevertheless, there is still a dearth of information on SRH outcomes and access to SRH services among refugee girls and young women in Africa. We conducted a mixed-methods study to assess SRH experiences, knowledge and access to services of refugee girls in the Nakivale settlement, Uganda. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey among 260 adolescent girls 13-19 years old was conducted between March and May 2018. Concurrently, in-depth interviews were conducted among a subset of 28 adolescents. For both methods, information was collected regarding SRH knowledge, experiences and access to services and commodities. The questionnaire was entered directly on the tablets using the Magpi® app. Descriptive statistical analysis and multinomial logistic regression were performed. Qualitative data was transcribed and analysed using thematic content analysis. RESULTS: A total of 260 participants were interviewed, with a median age of 15.9 years. The majority of girls were born in DR Congo and Burundi. Of the 93% of girls who had experienced menstruation, 43% had ever missed school due to menstruation. Regarding SRH knowledge, a total of 11.7% were not aware of how HIV is prevented, 15.7% did not know any STI and 13.8% were not familiar with any method to prevent pregnancy. A total of 30 girls from 260 were sexually active, of which 11 had experienced forced sexual intercourse. The latter occurred during conflict, in transit or within the camp. A total of 27 of 260 participants had undergone female genital mutilation (FGM). The most preferred sources for SRH information was parents or guardians, although participants expressed that they were afraid or shy to discuss other sexuality topics apart from menstruation with parents. A total of 30% of the female adolescents had ever visited a SRH service centre, mostly to test for HIV and to seek medical aid for menstrual problems. CONCLUSIONS: Adolescent refugee girls lack adequate SRH information, experience poor SRH outcomes including school absence due to menstruation, sexual violence and FGM. Comprehensive SRH services including sexuality education, barrier-free access to SRH services and parental involvement are recommended.

Assessment of short-term heat effects on cardiovascular mortality and vulnerability factors using small area data in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Short-term associations between heat and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality have been examined mostly in large cities. However, different vulnerability and exposure levels may contribute to spatial heterogeneity. This study assessed heat effects on CVD mortality and potential vulnerability factors using data from three European countries, including urban and rural settings. METHODS: We collected daily counts of CVD deaths aggregated at the small-area level in Norway (small-area level: municipality), England and Wales (lower super output areas), and Germany (district) during the warm season (May-September) from 1996 to 2018. Daily mean air temperatures estimated by spatial-temporal models were assigned to each small area. Within each country, we applied area-specific Quasi-Poisson regression using distributed lag nonlinear models to examine the heat effects at lag 0-1 days. The area-specific estimates were pooled by random-effects meta-analysis to derive country-specific and overall heat effects. We examined individual- and area-level heat vulnerability factors by subgroup analyses and meta-regression, respectively. RESULTS: We included 2.84 million CVD deaths in analyses. For an increase in temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile, the pooled relative risk (RR) for CVD mortality was 1.14 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.26), with the country-specific RRs ranging from 1.04 (1.00, 1.09) in Norway to 1.24 (1.23, 1.26) in Germany. Heat effects were stronger among women [RRs (95% CIs) for women and men: 1.18 (1.08, 1.28) vs. 1.12 (1.00, 1.24)]. Greater heat vulnerability was observed in areas with high population density, high degree of urbanization, low green coverage, and high levels of fine particulate matter. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence for the heat effects on CVD mortality in European countries using high-resolution data from both urban and rural areas. Besides, we identified individual- and area-level heat vulnerability factors. Our findings may facilitate the development of heat-health action plans to increase resilience to climate change.

Heat-related cardiorespiratory mortality: Effect modification by air pollution across 482 cities from 24 countries.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the potential interactive effects of heat and ambient air pollution on cause-specific mortality is inconclusive and limited to selected locations. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the effects of heat on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality and its modification by air pollution during summer months (six consecutive hottest months) in 482 locations across 24 countries. METHODS: Location-specific daily death counts and exposure data (e.g., particulate matter with diameters ≤ 2.5 µm [PM2.5]) were obtained from 2000 to 2018. We used location-specific confounder-adjusted Quasi-Poisson regression with a tensor product between air temperature and the air pollutant. We extracted heat effects at low, medium, and high levels of pollutants, defined as the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile of the location-specific pollutant concentrations. Country-specific and overall estimates were derived using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model. RESULTS: Heat was associated with increased cardiorespiratory mortality. Moreover, the heat effects were modified by elevated levels of all air pollutants in most locations, with stronger effects for respiratory than cardiovascular mortality. For example, the percent increase in respiratory mortality per increase in the 2-day average summer temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile was 7.7% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 7.6-7.7), 11.3% (95%CI 11.2-11.3), and 14.3% (95% CI 14.1-14.5) at low, medium, and high levels of PM2.5, respectively. Similarly, cardiovascular mortality increased by 1.6 (95%CI 1.5-1.6), 5.1 (95%CI 5.1-5.2), and 8.7 (95%CI 8.7-8.8) at low, medium, and high levels of O3, respectively. DISCUSSION: We observed considerable modification of the heat effects on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality by elevated levels of air pollutants. Therefore, mitigation measures following the new WHO Air Quality Guidelines are crucial to enhance better health and promote sustainable development.

Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mortality is still inconsistent. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries. METHODS: We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter ≤ 10 µm (PM10), PM ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) from 620 cities in 36 countries in the period 1995-2020. We restricted the analysis to the six consecutive warmest months in each city. City-specific data were analysed with over-dispersed Poisson regression models, followed by a multilevel random-effects meta-analysis. The joint association between air temperature and air pollutants was modelled with product terms between non-linear functions for air temperature and linear functions for air pollutants. RESULTS: We analyzed 22,630,598 deaths. An increase in mean temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile of city-specific distributions was associated with an average 8.9 % (95 % confidence interval: 7.1 %, 10.7 %) mortality increment, ranging between 5.3 % (3.8 %, 6.9 %) and 12.8 % (8.7 %, 17.0 %), when daily PM10 was equal to 10 or 90 µg/m3, respectively. Corresponding estimates when daily O3 concentrations were 40 or 160 µg/m3 were 2.9 % (1.1 %, 4.7 %) and 12.5 % (6.9 %, 18.5 %), respectively. Similarly, a 10 µg/m3 increment in PM10 was associated with a 0.54 % (0.10 %, 0.98 %) and 1.21 % (0.69 %, 1.72 %) increase in mortality when daily air temperature was set to the 1st and 99th city-specific percentiles, respectively. Corresponding mortality estimate for O3 across these temperature percentiles were 0.00 % (-0.44 %, 0.44 %) and 0.53 % (0.38 %, 0.68 %). Similar effect modification results, although slightly weaker, were found for PM2.5 and NO2. CONCLUSIONS: Suggestive evidence of effect modification between air temperature and air pollutants on mortality during the warm period was found in a global dataset of 620 cities.

Achievements and gaps in projection studies on the temperature-attributable health burden: Where should we be headed?

Future projection of the temperature-related health burden, including mortality and hospital admissions, is a growing field of research. These studies aim to provide crucial information for decision-makers considering existing health policies as well as integrating targeted adaptation strategies to evade the health burden. However, this field of research is still overshadowed by large uncertainties. These uncertainties exist to an extent in the future climate and population models used by such studies but largely in the disparities in underlying assumptions. Existing studies differ in the factors incorporated for projection and strategies for considering the future adaptation of the population to temperature. These differences exist to a great degree because of a lack of robust evidence as well as gaps in the field of climate epidemiology that still require extensive input from the research community. This narrative review summarizes the current status of projection studies of temperature-attributable health burden, the guiding assumptions behind them, the common grounds, as well as the differences. Overall, the review aims to highlight existing evidence and knowledge gaps as a basis for designing future studies on temperature-attributable health burden estimation. Finding a robust methodology for projecting the future health burden could be a milestone for climate epidemiologists as this would largely benefit the world when applying this technique to project the climate-attributable cause-specific health burden and adapt our existing health policies accordingly.

Future temperature-related mortality considering physiological and socioeconomic adaptation: a modelling framework.

BACKGROUND: As the climate changes, it is crucial to focus not only on mitigation measures but also on building climate change resilience by developing efficient adaptation strategies. Although population adaptation is a major determinant of future climate-related health burden, it is not well accounted for in studies that project the health impact of climate change. We propose a methodological framework for temperature-related mortality that incorporates two simultaneous adaptation-sensitivity pathways: the physiological pathway, considering both heat adaptation and cold sensitivity, and the socioeconomic pathway, which is influenced by changes in future adaptive capacities. To demonstrate its utility we apply the framework to a case study mortality time-series dataset from Bavaria, Germany. METHODS: In this modelling framework, we used extrapolated location-specific and age-specific baseline exposure-response functions and propose different future scenarios of cold sensitivity and heat adaptation on the basis of varying slopes of these exposure-response functions. We also incorporated future socioeconomic adaptation in the exposure-response functions using projections of gross domestic product under the respective shared socioeconomic pathways. Future adaptable fractions, representing the deaths avoided under each of the future scenarios, are projected under combinations of two climate change scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathway [SSP]1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0) and the respective plausible population projection scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), also incorporating the future changes in demographic age structure and mortality. The case study for this framework was done for five districts in Bavaria, for both total non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality. The baseline data was obtained for the period 1990-2006, and the future period was defined as 2083-99. FINDINGS: In our Bavaria case study, average temperature was projected to increase by 2099 by an average of 1·1°C under SSP1-2.6 and by 4·1°C under SSP3-7.0. We observed the adaptable fraction to be largely influenced by socioeconomic adaptation for both total mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality, and for both climate change scenarios. For example, for total mortality, the highest adaptable fraction of 18·56% (95% empirical CI 10·77-23·67) was observed under the SSP1-2.6 future scenario, in the presence of socioeconomic adaptation and under the highest heat adaptation (10%) provided the cold sensitivity remains 0%. The cold adaptable fraction is lower than the heat adaptable fraction under all scenarios. In the absence of socioeconomic adaptation, population ageing will lead to higher temperature-related mortality. INTERPRETATION: Our developed framework helps to systematically understand the effectiveness of adaptation mechanisms. In the future, socioeconomic adaptation is estimated to play a major role in determining temperature-related excess mortality. Furthermore, cold sensitivity might outweigh heat adaptation in the majority of locations worldwide. Similarly, population ageing is projected to continue to determine future temperature-related mortality. FUNDING: EU Horizon 2020 (EXHAUSTION).

A systematic review on the association between total and cardiopulmonary mortality/morbidity or cardiovascular risk factors with long-term exposure to increased or decreased ambient temperature.

The health effects of acute exposure to temperature extremes are established; those of long-term exposure only recently received attention. We performed a systematic review to assess the associations of long-term (>3 months) exposure to higher or lower temperature on total and cardiopulmonary mortality and morbidity, screening 3455 studies and selecting 34. The studies were classified in those observing associations within a population over years with changing annual temperature indices and those comparing areas with a different climate. We also assessed the risk of bias, adapting appropriately an instrument developed by the World Health Organization for air pollution. Studies reported that annual temperature indices for extremes and variability were associated with annual increases in mortality, indicating that effects of temperature extremes cannot be attributed only to short-term mortality displacement. Studies on cardiovascular mortality indicated stronger associations with cold rather than hot temperature, whilst those on respiratory outcomes reported effects of both heat and cold but were few and used diverse health outcomes. Interactions with air pollution were not generally assessed. The few studies investigating effect modification showed stronger effects among the elderly and those socially deprived. Comparisons of health outcome prevalence between areas reported lower blood pressure and a tendency for higher obesity in populations living in warmer climates. Our review indicated interesting associations between long-term exposure to unusual temperature levels in specific areas and differences in health outcomes and cardiovascular risk factors between geographical locations with different climate, but the number of studies by design and health outcome was small. Risk of bias was identified because of the use of crude exposure assessment and inadequate adjustment for confounding. More and better designed studies, including the investigation of effect modifiers, are needed.

How Sexuality Education Programs Have Been Evaluated in Low-and Lower-Middle-Income Countries? A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Complex sexual and reproductive health interventions, such as sexuality education (SE), contain multiple components and activities, which often requires a comprehensive evaluation design and adaptation to a specific context. In this review, we synthetize available scientific literature on types of evaluation designs used for SE programs in low- and lower-middle-income countries. Methods: Two databases yielded 455 publications, from which 20 articles met the inclusion criteria. Narrative synthesis was used to summarize the findings. Evaluation approaches were compared to recommended evaluation frameworks. The quality of articles was assessed by using MMAT 2018. Results: A total of 15 interventions employed in 10 countries were evaluated in the 20 selected articles, with the quality of publications being moderate to high. Randomized controlled trial was the predominant study design, followed by quasi-experimental design. There were seven process evaluation studies, using mixed methods. Main outcomes reported were of public health or behavioral nature-condom use, sexual debut or delay, and number of sexual partners. By comparing evaluation designs to recommended frameworks, few studies fulfilled at least half of the criteria. Conclusions: Evaluations of SE are largely dominated by quantitative (quasi-)experimental designs and use of public health outcomes. To improve understanding of SE program effectiveness, it is important to assess the quality of the program development, its implementation, and its impact, using existing evaluation frameworks and recommendations.

A Qualitative Study Exploring Menstruation Experiences and Practices among Adolescent Girls Living in the Nakivale Refugee Settlement, Uganda.

(1) Background: Girls in low- and lower-middle income countries face challenges in menstrual health management (MHM), which impact their health and schooling. This might be exacerbated by refugee conditions. This study aimed at describing menstruation practices and experiences of adolescent girls in Nakivale refugee settlement in Southwestern Uganda. (2) Methods: We conducted a qualitative study from March to May 2018 and we intentionally selected participants to broadly represent different age groups and countries of origin. We conducted 28 semistructured interviews and two focus group discussions. Data were transcribed and translated into English. Analysis included data familiarization, manual coding, generation and refining of themes. (3) Results: Main findings included: (a) challenging social context with negative experiences during migration, family separation and scarcity of resources for livelihood within the settlement; (b) unfavorable menstruation experiences, including unpreparedness for menarche and lack of knowledge, limitations in activity and leisure, pain, school absenteeism and psychosocial effects; (c) menstrual practices, including use of unsuitable alternatives for MHM and poor health-seeking behavior. (4) Conclusions: A multipronged approach to MHM management is crucial, including comprehensive sexual education, enhancement of parent-adolescent communication, health sector partnership and support from NGOs to meet the tailored needs of adolescent girls.

Projection of Temperature-Related Myocardial Infarction in Augsburg, Germany: Moving on From the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

BACKGROUND: Substantial efforts are required to limit global warming to under 2 °C, with 1.5 °C as the target (Paris Agreement goal). We set out to project future temperature-related myocardial infarction (MI) events in Augsburg, Germany, at increases in warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C. METHODS: Using daily time series of MI cases and temperature projections under two climate scenarios, we projected changes in temperature-related MIs at different increases in warming, assuming no changes in population structure or level of adaptation. RESULTS: In a low-emission scenario that limits warming to below 2 °C throughout the 21st century, temperature-related MI cases will decrease slightly by -6 (confidence interval -60; 50) per decade at 1.5 °C of warming. In a high-emission scenario going beyond the Paris Agreement goals, temperature-related MI cases will increase by 18 (-64; 117) and 63 (-83; 257) per decade with warming of 2 °C and 3 °C, respectively. CONCLUSION: The future burden of temperature-related MI events in Augsburg at 2 °C and 3 °C of warming will be greater than at 1.5 °C. Fulfilling the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to no more than 1.5 °C is therefore essential to avoid additional MI events due to climate change.

A Systematic Review of Sexual and Reproductive Health Knowledge, Experiences and Access to Services among Refugee, Migrant and Displaced Girls and Young Women in Africa.

Adolescent girls and young women are an overlooked group within conflict- or disaster-affected populations, and their sexual and reproductive health (SRH) needs are often neglected. Existing evidence shows that forced migration and human mobility make girls and women more vulnerable to poor SRH outcomes such as high risk sexual behaviors, lack of contraception use, STIs and HIV/AIDS. We performed a systematic literature review to explore knowledge, experiences and access to SRH services in this population group across the African continent. Two databases (PubMed and Web of Science) were searched and from 896 identified publications, 15 peer-reviewed articles published in English met the inclusion criteria for this review. These consisted of eight applied qualitative, five quantitative and two mixed-method study designs. The quality of the studies was evaluated by the mixed-methods appraisal tool (MMAT) using scores in percentages (0⁻100%). Available evidence indicates that knowledge of young women and girls regarding contraceptive methods, STIs and HIV/AIDS are limited. This population group often experiences gender-based and sexual violence and abuse. The access and availability of SRH services are often limited due to distances, costs and stigma. This review demonstrates that there is still a dearth of peer-reviewed literature on SRH related aspects among refugee, migrant and displaced girls and young women in Africa. The data disaggregation by sex and age should be emphasized for future research in this field.