Birth weight influences cardiac structure, function, and disease risk: evidence of a causal association.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Low birth weight is a common pregnancy complication, which has been associated with higher risk of cardiometabolic disease in later life. Prior Mendelian randomization (MR) studies exploring this question do not distinguish the mechanistic contributions of variants that directly influence birth weight through the foetal genome (direct foetal effects), vs. variants influencing birth weight indirectly by causing an adverse intrauterine environment (indirect maternal effects). In this study, MR was used to assess whether birth weight, independent of intrauterine influences, is associated with cardiovascular disease risk and measures of adverse cardiac structure and function. METHODS: Uncorrelated (r2 < .001), genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10-8) single nucleotide polymorphisms were extracted from genome-wide association studies summary statistics for birth weight overall, and after isolating direct foetal effects only. Inverse-variance weighted MR was utilized for analyses on outcomes of atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, heart failure, ischaemic stroke, and 16 measures of cardiac structure and function. Multiple comparisons were accounted for by Benjamini-Hochberg correction. RESULTS: Lower genetically-predicted birth weight, isolating direct foetal effects only, was associated with an increased risk of coronary artery disease (odds ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.37; P = .031), smaller chamber volumes, and lower stroke volume, but higher contractility. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study support a causal role of low birth weight in cardiovascular disease, even after accounting for the influence of the intrauterine environment. This suggests that individuals with a low birth weight may benefit from early targeted cardiovascular disease prevention strategies, independent of whether this was linked to an adverse intrauterine environment during gestation.

NHS Health Check attendance is associated with reduced multiorgan disease risk: a matched cohort study in the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: The NHS Health Check is a preventive programme in the UK designed to screen for cardiovascular risk and to aid in primary disease prevention. Despite its widespread implementation, the effectiveness of the NHS Health Check for longer-term disease prevention is unclear. In this study, we measured the rate of new diagnoses in UK Biobank participants who underwent the NHS Health Check compared with those who did not. METHODS: Within the UK Biobank prospective study, 48,602 NHS Health Check recipients were identified from linked primary care records. These participants were then covariate-matched on an extensive range of socio-demographic, lifestyle, and medical factors with 48,602 participants without record of the check. Follow-up diagnoses were ascertained from health records over an average of 9 years (SD 2 years) including hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, stroke, dementia, myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, fatty liver disease, alcoholic liver disease, liver cirrhosis, liver failure, acute kidney injury, chronic kidney disease (stage 3 +), cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Time-varying survival modelling was used to compare adjusted outcome rates between the groups. RESULTS: In the immediate 2 years after the NHS Health Check, higher diagnosis rates were observed for hypertension, high cholesterol, and chronic kidney disease among health check recipients compared to their matched counterparts. However, in the longer term, NHS Health Check recipients had significantly lower risk across all multiorgan disease outcomes and reduced rates of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The NHS Health Check is linked to reduced incidence of disease across multiple organ systems, which may be attributed to risk modification through earlier detection and treatment of key risk factors such as hypertension and high cholesterol. This work adds important evidence to the growing body of research supporting the effectiveness of preventative interventions in reducing longer-term multimorbidity.

Image-Based Biological Heart Age Estimation Reveals Differential Aging Patterns Across Cardiac Chambers.

BACKGROUND: Biological heart age estimation can provide insights into cardiac aging. However, existing studies do not consider differential aging across cardiac regions. PURPOSE: To estimate biological age of the left ventricle (LV), right ventricle (RV), myocardium, left atrium, and right atrium using magnetic resonance imaging radiomics phenotypes and to investigate determinants of aging by cardiac region. STUDY TYPE: Cross-sectional. POPULATION: A total of 18,117 healthy UK Biobank participants including 8338 men (mean age = 64.2 ± 7.5) and 9779 women (mean age = 63.0 ± 7.4). FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE: A 1.5 T/balanced steady-state free precession. ASSESSMENT: An automated algorithm was used to segment the five cardiac regions, from which radiomic features were extracted. Bayesian ridge regression was used to estimate biological age of each cardiac region with radiomics features as predictors and chronological age as the output. The "age gap" was the difference between biological and chronological age. Linear regression was used to calculate associations of age gap from each cardiac region with socioeconomic, lifestyle, body composition, blood pressure and arterial stiffness, blood biomarkers, mental well-being, multiorgan health, and sex hormone exposures (n = 49). STATISTICAL TEST: Multiple testing correction with false discovery method (threshold = 5%). RESULTS: The largest model error was with RV and the smallest with LV age (mean absolute error in men: 5.26 vs. 4.96 years). There were 172 statistically significant age gap associations. Greater visceral adiposity was the strongest correlate of larger age gaps, for example, myocardial age gap in women (Beta = 0.85, P = 1.69 × 10-26 ). Poor mental health associated with large age gaps, for example, "disinterested" episodes and myocardial age gap in men (Beta = 0.25, P = 0.001), as did a history of dental problems (eg LV in men Beta = 0.19, P = 0.02). Higher bone mineral density was the strongest associate of smaller age gaps, for example, myocardial age gap in men (Beta = -1.52, P = 7.44 × 10-6 ). DATA CONCLUSION: This work demonstrates image-based heart age estimation as a novel method for understanding cardiac aging. EVIDENCE LEVEL: 1. TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 1.

Radiomics of pericardial fat: a new frontier in heart failure discrimination and prediction.

OBJECTIVES: To use pericardial adipose tissue (PAT) radiomics phenotyping to differentiate existing and predict future heart failure (HF) cases in the UK Biobank. METHODS: PAT segmentations were derived from cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) studies using an automated quality-controlled model to define the region-of-interest for radiomics analysis. Prevalent (present at time of imaging) and incident (first occurrence after imaging) HF were ascertained using health record linkage. We created balanced cohorts of non-HF individuals for comparison. PyRadiomics was utilised to extract 104 radiomics features, of which 28 were chosen after excluding highly correlated ones (0.8). These features, plus sex and age, served as predictors in binary classification models trained separately to detect (1) prevalent and (2) incident HF. We tested seven modeling methods using tenfold nested cross-validation and examined feature importance with explainability methods. RESULTS: We studied 1204 participants in total, 297 participants with prevalent (60 ± 7 years, 21% female) and 305 with incident (61 ± 6 years, 32% female) HF, and an equal number of non-HF comparators. We achieved good discriminative performance for both prevalent (voting classifier; AUC: 0.76; F1 score: 0.70) and incident (light gradient boosting machine: AUC: 0.74; F1 score: 0.68) HF. Our radiomics models showed marginally better performance compared to PAT area alone. Increased PAT size (maximum 2D diameter in a given column or slice) and texture heterogeneity (sum entropy) were important features for prevalent and incident HF classification models. CONCLUSIONS: The amount and character of PAT discriminate individuals with prevalent HF and predict incidence of future HF. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: This study presents an innovative application of pericardial adipose tissue (PAT) radiomics phenotyping as a predictive tool for heart failure (HF), a major public health concern. By leveraging advanced machine learning methods, the research uncovers that the quantity and characteristics of PAT can be used to identify existing cases of HF and predict future occurrences. The enhanced performance of these radiomics models over PAT area alone supports the potential for better personalised care through earlier detection and prevention of HF. KEY POINTS: •PAT radiomics applied to CMR was used for the first time to derive binary machine learning classifiers to develop models for discrimination of prevalence and prediction of incident heart failure. •Models using PAT area provided acceptable discrimination between cases of prevalent or incident heart failure and comparator groups. •An increased PAT volume (increased diameter using shape features) and greater texture heterogeneity captured by radiomics texture features (increased sum entropy) can be used as an additional classifier marker for heart failure.

Prediction of incident cardiovascular events using machine learning and CMR radiomics.

OBJECTIVES: Evaluation of the feasibility of using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) radiomics in the prediction of incident atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF), myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke using machine learning techniques. METHODS: We identified participants from the UK Biobank who experienced incident AF, HF, MI, or stroke during the continuous longitudinal follow-up. The CMR indices and the vascular risk factors (VRFs) as well as the CMR images were obtained for each participant. Three-segmented regions of interest (ROIs) were computed: right ventricle cavity, left ventricle (LV) cavity, and LV myocardium in end-systole and end-diastole phases. Radiomics features were extracted from the 3D volumes of the ROIs. Seven integrative models were built for each incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) as an outcome. Each model was built with VRF, CMR indices, and radiomics features and a combination of them. Support vector machine was used for classification. To assess the model performance, the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC were reported. RESULTS: AF prediction model using the VRF+CMR+Rad model (accuracy: 0.71, AUC 0.76) obtained the best result. However, the AUC was similar to the VRF+Rad model. HF showed the most significant improvement with the inclusion of CMR metrics (VRF+CMR+Rad: 0.79, AUC 0.84). Moreover, adding only the radiomics features to the VRF reached an almost similarly good performance (VRF+Rad: accuracy 0.77, AUC 0.83). Prediction models looking into incident MI and stroke reached slightly smaller improvement. CONCLUSIONS: Radiomics features may provide incremental predictive value over VRF and CMR indices in the prediction of incident CVDs. KEY POINTS: • Prediction of incident atrial fibrillation, heart failure, stroke, and myocardial infarction using machine learning techniques. • CMR radiomics, vascular risk factors, and standard CMR indices will be considered in the machine learning models. • The experiments show that radiomics features can provide incremental predictive value over VRF and CMR indices in the prediction of incident cardiovascular diseases.

Cardiovascular magnetic resonance for evaluation of cardiac involvement in COVID-19: recommendations by the Society for Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing global pandemic that has affected nearly 600 million people to date across the world. While COVID-19 is primarily a respiratory illness, cardiac injury is also known to occur. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging is uniquely capable of characterizing myocardial tissue properties in-vivo, enabling insights into the pattern and degree of cardiac injury. The reported prevalence of myocardial involvement identified by CMR in the context of COVID-19 infection among previously hospitalized patients ranges from 26 to 60%. Variations in the reported prevalence of myocardial involvement may result from differing patient populations (e.g. differences in severity of illness) and the varying intervals between acute infection and CMR evaluation. Standardized methodologies in image acquisition, analysis, interpretation, and reporting of CMR abnormalities across would likely improve concordance between studies. This consensus document by the Society for Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance (SCMR) provides recommendations on CMR imaging and reporting metrics towards the goal of improved standardization and uniform data acquisition and analytic approaches when performing CMR in patients with COVID-19 infection.

European Society of Cardiology: cardiovascular disease statistics 2021.

AIMS: This report from the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Atlas Project updates and expands upon the widely cited 2019 report in presenting cardiovascular disease (CVD) statistics for the 57 ESC member countries. METHODS AND RESULTS: Statistics pertaining to 2019, or the latest available year, are presented. Data sources include the World Health Organization, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the World Bank, and novel ESC sponsored data on human and capital infrastructure and cardiovascular healthcare delivery. New material in this report includes sociodemographic and environmental determinants of CVD, rheumatic heart disease, out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, left-sided valvular heart disease, the advocacy potential of these CVD statistics, and progress towards World Health Organization (WHO) 2025 targets for non-communicable diseases. Salient observations in this report: (i) Females born in ESC member countries in 2018 are expected to live 80.8 years and males 74.8 years. Life expectancy is longer in high income (81.6 years) compared with middle-income (74.2 years) countries. (ii) In 2018, high-income countries spent, on average, four times more on healthcare than middle-income countries. (iii) The median PM2.5 concentrations in 2019 were over twice as high in middle-income ESC member countries compared with high-income countries and exceeded the EU air quality standard in 14 countries, all middle-income. (iv) In 2016, more than one in five adults across the ESC member countries were obese with similar prevalence in high and low-income countries. The prevalence of obesity has more than doubled over the past 35 years. (v) The burden of CVD falls hardest on middle-income ESC member countries where estimated incidence rates are ∼30% higher compared with high-income countries. This is reflected in disability-adjusted life years due to CVD which are nearly four times as high in middle-income compared with high-income countries. (vi) The incidence of calcific aortic valve disease has increased seven-fold during the last 30 years, with age-standardized rates four times as high in high-income compared with middle-income countries. (vii) Although the total number of CVD deaths across all countries far exceeds the number of cancer deaths for both sexes, there are 15 ESC member countries in which cancer accounts for more deaths than CVD in males and five-member countries in which cancer accounts for more deaths than CVD in females. (viii) The under-resourced status of middle-income countries is associated with a severe procedural deficit compared with high-income countries in terms of coronary intervention, ablation procedures, device implantation, and cardiac surgical procedures. CONCLUSION: Risk factors and unhealthy behaviours are potentially reversible, and this provides a huge opportunity to address the health inequalities across ESC member countries that are highlighted in this report. It seems clear, however, that efforts to seize this opportunity are falling short and present evidence suggests that most of the WHO NCD targets for 2025 are unlikely to be met across ESC member countries.

Cardiovascular Health Care Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has challenged the capacity of health care systems around the world, including substantial disruptions to cardiovascular care across key areas of health care delivery. In this narrative review, we examine the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for cardiovascular health care, including excess cardiovascular mortality, acute and elective cardiovascular care, and disease prevention. Additionally, we consider the long-term public health consequences of disruptions to cardiovascular care across both primary and secondary care settings. Finally, we review health care inequalities and their driving factors, as highlighted by the pandemic, and consider their importance in the context of cardiovascular health care.

Vitamin D and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): rapid evidence review.

BACKGROUND: The rapid global spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has re-ignited interest in the possible role of vitamin D in modulation of host responses to respiratory pathogens. Indeed, vitamin D supplementation has been proposed as a potential preventative or therapeutic strategy. Recommendations for any intervention, particularly in the context of a potentially fatal pandemic infection, should be strictly based on clinically informed appraisal of the evidence base. In this narrative review, we examine current evidence relating to vitamin D and COVID-19 and consider the most appropriate practical recommendations. OBSERVATIONS: Although there are a growing number of studies investigating the links between vitamin D and COVID-19, they are mostly small and observational with high risk of bias, residual confounding, and reverse causality. Extrapolation of molecular actions of 1,25(OH)2-vitamin D to an effect of increased 25(OH)-vitamin D as a result of vitamin D supplementation is generally unfounded, as is the automatic conclusion of causal mechanisms from observational studies linking low 25(OH)-vitamin D to incident disease. Efficacy is ideally demonstrated in the context of adequately powered randomised intervention studies, although such approaches may not always be feasible. CONCLUSIONS: At present, evidence to support vitamin D supplementation for the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 is inconclusive. In the absence of any further compelling data, adherence to existing national guidance on vitamin D supplementation to prevent vitamin D deficiency, predicated principally on maintaining musculoskeletal health, appears appropriate.

Adverse cardiovascular magnetic resonance phenotypes are associated with greater likelihood of incident coronavirus disease 2019: findings from the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disproportionately affects older people. Observational studies suggest indolent cardiovascular involvement after recovery from acute COVID-19. However, these findings may reflect pre-existing cardiac phenotypes. AIMS: We tested the association of baseline cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) phenotypes with incident COVID-19. METHODS: We studied UK Biobank participants with CMR imaging and COVID-19 testing. We considered left and right ventricular (LV, RV) volumes, ejection fractions, and stroke volumes, LV mass, LV strain, native T1, aortic distensibility, and arterial stiffness index. COVID-19 test results were obtained from Public Health England. Co-morbidities were ascertained from self-report and hospital episode statistics (HES). Critical care admission and death were from HES and death register records. We investigated the association of each cardiovascular measure with COVID-19 test result in multivariable logistic regression models adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, body mass index, smoking, diabetes, hypertension, high cholesterol, and prior myocardial infarction. RESULTS: We studied 310 participants (n = 70 positive). Median age was 63.8 [57.5, 72.1] years; 51.0% (n = 158) were male. 78.7% (n = 244) were tested in hospital, 3.5% (n = 11) required critical care admission, and 6.1% (n = 19) died. In fully adjusted models, smaller LV/RV end-diastolic volumes, smaller LV stroke volume, and poorer global longitudinal strain were associated with significantly higher odds of COVID-19 positivity. DISCUSSION: We demonstrate association of pre-existing adverse CMR phenotypes with greater odds of COVID-19 positivity independent of classical cardiovascular risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Observational reports of cardiovascular involvement after COVID-19 may, at least partly, reflect pre-existing cardiac status rather than COVID-19 induced alterations.

Greater risk of severe COVID-19 in Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic populations is not explained by cardiometabolic, socioeconomic or behavioural factors, or by 25(OH)-vitamin D status: study of 1326 cases from the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: We examined whether the greater severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) amongst men and Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) individuals is explained by cardiometabolic, socio-economic or behavioural factors. METHODS: We studied 4510 UK Biobank participants tested for COVID-19 (positive, n = 1326). Multivariate logistic regression models including age, sex and ethnicity were used to test whether addition of (1) cardiometabolic factors [diabetes, hypertension, high cholesterol, prior myocardial infarction, smoking and body mass index (BMI)]; (2) 25(OH)-vitamin D; (3) poor diet; (4) Townsend deprivation score; (5) housing (home type, overcrowding) or (6) behavioural factors (sociability, risk taking) attenuated sex/ethnicity associations with COVID-19 status. RESULTS: There was over-representation of men and BAME ethnicities in the COVID-19 positive group. BAME individuals had, on average, poorer cardiometabolic profile, lower 25(OH)-vitamin D, greater material deprivation, and were more likely to live in larger households and in flats/apartments. Male sex, BAME ethnicity, higher BMI, higher Townsend deprivation score and household overcrowding were independently associated with significantly greater odds of COVID-19. The pattern of association was consistent for men and women; cardiometabolic, socio-demographic and behavioural factors did not attenuate sex/ethnicity associations. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, sex and ethnicity differential pattern of COVID-19 was not adequately explained by variations in cardiometabolic factors, 25(OH)-vitamin D levels or socio-economic factors. Factors which underlie ethnic differences in COVID-19 may not be easily captured, and so investigation of alternative biological and genetic susceptibilities as well as more comprehensive assessment of the complex economic, social and behavioural differences should be prioritised.

Characterizing the Contribution of Dependent Features in XAI Methods.

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) provides tools to help understanding how AI models work and reach a particular decision or outcome. It helps to increase the interpretability of models and makes them more trustworthy and transparent. In this context, many XAI methods have been proposed to make black-box and complex models more digestible from a human perspective. However, one of the main issues that XAI methods have to face especially when dealing with a high number of features is the presence of multicollinearity, which casts shadows on the robustness of the XAI outcomes, such as the ranking of informative features. Most of the current XAI methods either do not consider the collinearity or assume the features are independent which, in general, is not necessarily true. Here, we propose a simple, yet useful, proxy that modifies the outcome of any XAI feature ranking method allowing to account for the dependency among the features, and to reveal their impact on the outcome. The proposed method was applied to SHAP, as an example of XAI method which assume that the features are independent. For this purpose, several models were exploited for a well-known classification task (males versus females) using nine cardiac phenotypes extracted from cardiac magnetic resonance imaging as features. Principal component analysis and biological plausibility were employed to validate the proposed method. Our results showed that the proposed proxy could lead to a more robust list of informative features compared to the original SHAP in presence of collinearity.

Sex-based differences in risk factors for incident myocardial infarction and stroke in the UK Biobank.

AIM: This study examined sex-based differences in associations of vascular risk factors with incident cardiovascular events in the UK Biobank. METHODS: Baseline participant demographic, clinical, laboratory, anthropometric, and imaging characteristics were collected. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate independent associations of vascular risk factors with incident myocardial infarction (MI) and ischaemic stroke for men and women. Women-to-men ratios of hazard ratios (RHRs), and related 95% confidence intervals, represent the relative effect-size magnitude by sex. RESULTS: Among the 363 313 participants (53.5% women), 8470 experienced MI (29.9% women) and 7705 experienced stroke (40.1% women) over 12.66 [11.93, 13.38] years of prospective follow-up. Men had greater risk factor burden and higher arterial stiffness index at baseline. Women had greater age-related decline in aortic distensibility. Older age [RHR: 1.02 (1.01-1.03)], greater deprivation [RHR: 1.02 (1.00-1.03)], hypertension [RHR: 1.14 (1.02-1.27)], and current smoking [RHR: 1.45 (1.27-1.66)] were associated with a greater excess risk of MI in women than men. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was associated with excess MI risk in men [RHR: 0.90 (0.84-0.95)] and apolipoprotein A (ApoA) was less protective for MI in women [RHR: 1.65 (1.01-2.71)]. Older age was associated with excess risk of stroke [RHR: 1.01 (1.00-1.02)] and ApoA was less protective for stroke in women [RHR: 2.55 (1.58-4.14)]. CONCLUSION: Older age, hypertension, and smoking appeared stronger drivers of cardiovascular disease in women, whereas lipid metrics appeared stronger risk determinants for men. These findings highlight the importance of sex-specific preventive strategies and suggest priority targets for intervention in men and women.

Predicting cardiovascular events with fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy using a standard cardiovascular risk calculator.

AIMS: Fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy is important for treatment of many solid tumours but is associated with cardiotoxicity. The relationship of fluoropyrimidine-associated cardiotoxicity (FAC) with conventional cardiovascular (CV) risk factors is poorly understood, and standard cardiovascular risk scores are not validated in this context. METHODS AND RESULTS: Single-centre retrospective study of patients treated with fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy using electronic health records for cardiovascular risk factors (and calculation of QRISK3 score), cancer treatment, and clinical outcomes. FAC was defined by cardiovascular events during or within 3 months of fluoropyrimidine treatment, and Cox regression was used to assess associations of CV risk and cancer treatment with FAC. One thousand eight hundred ninety-eight patients were included (45% male; median age 64 years), with median follow up 24.5 (11.5-48.3 months); 52.7% of patients were at moderate or high baseline CV risk (QRISK3 score >10%) Cardiovascular events occurred in 3.1% (59/1898)-most commonly angina (64.4%, 38/59) and atrial fibrillation (13.6%, 8/59), with 39% events during cycle one of treatment. In univariable analysis, QRISK3 score >20% was significantly associated with incident FAC (HR 2.25, 95% CI 1.11-4.93, P = 0.03). On multivariable analysis, beta-blocker use (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00-1.08, P = 0.04) and higher BMI (HR 2.33, 95% CI 1.04-5.19, P = 0.04) were independently associated with incident CV events. Thirty-two of the 59 patients with FAC were subsequently rechallenged with fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy, with repeat CV events in 6% (2/32). Incident FAC did not affect overall survival (P = 0.50). CONCLUSIONS: High BMI and use of beta-blockers are associated with risk of CV events during fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy. QRISK3 score may also play a role in identifying patients at high risk of CV events during fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy. Re-challenge with further fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy can be considered in patients following CV events during prior treatment.

Feasibility of multiorgan risk prediction with routinely collected diagnostics: a prospective cohort study in the UK Biobank.

OBJECTIVES: Despite rising rates of multimorbidity, existing risk assessment tools are mostly limited to a single outcome of interest. This study tests the feasibility of producing multiple disease risk estimates with at least 70% discrimination (area under the receiver operating curve, AUROC) within the time and information constraints of the existing primary care health check framework. DESIGN: Observational prospective cohort study SETTING: UK Biobank. PARTICIPANTS: 228 240 adults from the UK population. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, stroke, all-cause dementia, chronic kidney disease, fatty liver disease, alcoholic liver disease, liver cirrhosis and liver failure. RESULTS: Using a set of predictors easily gathered at the standard primary care health check (such as the National Health Service Health Check), we demonstrate that it is feasible to simultaneously produce risk estimates for multiple disease outcomes with AUROC of 70% or greater. These predictors can be entered once into a single form and produce risk scores for stroke (AUROC 0.727, 95% CI 0.713 to 0.740), all-cause dementia (0.823, 95% CI 0.810 to 0.836), myocardial infarction (0.785, 95% CI 0.775 to 0.795), atrial fibrillation (0.777, 95% CI 0.768 to 0.785), heart failure (0.828, 95% CI 0.818 to 0.838), chronic kidney disease (0.774, 95% CI 0.765 to 0.783), fatty liver disease (0.766, 95% CI 0.753 to 0.779), alcoholic liver disease (0.864, 95% CI 0.835 to 0.894), liver cirrhosis (0.763, 95% CI 0.734 to 0.793) and liver failure (0.746, 95% CI 0.695 to 0.796). CONCLUSIONS: Easily collected diagnostics can be used to assess 10-year risk across multiple disease outcomes, without the need for specialist computing or invasive biomarkers. Such an approach could increase the utility of existing data and place multiorgan risk information at the fingertips of primary care providers, thus creating opportunities for longer-term multimorbidity prevention. Additional work is needed to validate whether these findings would hold in a larger, more representative cohort outside the UK Biobank.

Noninvasive Techniques for Tracking Biological Aging of the Cardiovascular System: JACC Family Series.

Population aging is one of the most important demographic transformations of our time. Increasing the "health span"-the proportion of life spent in good health-is a global priority. Biological aging comprises molecular and cellular modifications over many years, which culminate in gradual physiological decline across multiple organ systems and predispose to age-related illnesses. Cardiovascular disease is a major cause of ill health and premature death in older people. The rate at which biological aging occurs varies across individuals of the same age and is influenced by a wide range of genetic and environmental exposures. The authors review the hallmarks of biological cardiovascular aging and their capture using imaging and other noninvasive techniques and examine how this information may be used to understand aging trajectories, with the aim of guiding individual- and population-level interventions to promote healthy aging.