External Validation and Recalculation of the CODEX Index in COPD Patients. A 3CIAplus Cohort Study.

The CODEX index was developed and validated in patients hospitalized for COPD exacerbation to predict the risk of death and readmission within one year after discharge. Our study aimed to validate the CODEX index in a large external population of COPD patients with variable durations of follow-up. Additionally, we aimed to recalculate the thresholds of the CODEX index using the cutoffs of variables previously suggested in the 3CIA study (mCODEX). Individual data on 2,755 patients included in the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment Plus (3CIA+) were explored. A further two cohorts (ESMI AND EGARPOC-2) were added. To validate the CODEX index, the relationship between mortality and the CODEX index was assessed using cumulative/dynamic ROC curves at different follow-up periods, ranging from 3 months up to 10 years. Calibration was performed using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. A total of 3,321 (87.8% males) patients were included with a mean ± SD age of 66.9 ± 10.5 years, and a median follow-up of 1,064 days (IQR 25-75% 426-1643), totaling 11,190 person-years. The CODEX index was statistically associated with mortality in the short- (≤3 months), medium- (≤1 year) and long-term (10 years), with an area under the curve of 0.72, 0.70 and 0.76, respectively. The mCODEX index performed better in the medium-term (<1 year) than the original CODEX, and similarly in the long-term. In conclusion, CODEX and mCODEX index are good predictors of mortality in patients with COPD, regardless of disease severity or duration of follow-up.

Sex differences between women and men with COPD: A new analysis of the 3CIA study.

BACKGROUND: There is partial evidence that COPD is expressed differently in women than in men, namely on symptoms, pulmonary function, exacerbations, comorbidities or prognosis. There is a need to improve the characterization of COPD in females. METHODS: We obtained and pooled data of 17 139 patients from 22 COPD cohorts and analysed the clinical differences by sex, establishing the relationship between these characteristics in women and the prognosis and severity of the disease. Comparisons were established with standard statistics and survival analysis, including crude and multivariate Cox-regression analysis. RESULTS: Overall, 5355 (31.2%) women were compared with men with COPD. Women were younger, had lower pack-years, greater FEV1%, lower BMI and a greater number of exacerbations (all p < 0.05). On symptoms, women reported more dyspnea, equal cough but less expectoration (p < 0.001). There were no differences in the BODE index score in women (2.4) versus men (2.4) (p = 0.5), but the distribution of all BODE components was highly variable by sex within different thresholds of BODE. On prognosis, 5-year survival was higher in COPD females (86.9%) than in males (76.3%), p < 0.001, in all patients and within each of the specific comorbidities that we assessed. The crude and adjusted RR and 95% C.I. for death in males was 1.82 (1.69-1.96) and 1.73 (1.50-2.00), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: COPD in women has some characteristic traits expressed differently than compared to men, mainly with more dyspnea and COPD exacerbations and less phlegm, among others, although long-term survival appears better in female COPD patients.

Mortality prediction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease comparing the GOLD 2015 and GOLD 2019 staging: a pooled analysis of individual patient data.

In 2019, The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) modified the grading system for patients with COPD, creating 16 subgroups (1A-4D). As part of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment (3CIA) initiative, we aim to compare the mortality prediction of the 2015 and 2019 COPD GOLD staging systems. We studied 17 139 COPD patients from the 3CIA study, selecting those with complete data. Patients were classified by the 2015 and 2019 GOLD ABCD systems, and we compared the predictive ability for 5-year mortality of both classifications. In total, 17 139 patients with COPD were enrolled in 22 cohorts from 11 countries between 2003 and 2017; 8823 of them had complete data and were analysed. Mean±sd age was 63.9±9.8 years and 62.9% were male. GOLD 2019 classified the patients in milder degrees of COPD. For both classifications, group D had higher mortality. 5-year mortality did not differ between groups B and C in GOLD 2015; in GOLD 2019, mortality was greater for group B than C. Patients classified as group A and B had better sensitivity and positive predictive value with the GOLD 2019 classification than GOLD 2015. GOLD 2015 had better sensitivity for group C and D than GOLD 2019. The area under the curve values for 5-year mortality were only 0.67 (95% CI 0.66-0.68) for GOLD 2015 and 0.65 (95% CI 0.63-0.66) for GOLD 2019. The new GOLD 2019 classification does not predict mortality better than the previous GOLD 2015 system.