Trends in surface equivalent potential temperature: A more comprehensive metric for global warming and weather extremes.

Trends in surface air temperature (SAT) are a common metric for global warming. Using observations and observationally driven models, we show that a more comprehensive metric for global warming and weather extremes is the trend in surface equivalent potential temperature (Thetae_sfc) since it also accounts for the increase in atmospheric humidity and latent energy. From 1980 to 2019, while SAT increased by 0.79[Formula: see text], Thetae_sfc increased by 1.48[Formula: see text] globally and as much as 4[Formula: see text] in the tropics. The increase in water vapor is responsible for the factor of 2 difference between SAT and Thetae_sfc trends. Thetae_sfc increased more uniformly (than SAT) between the midlatitudes of the southern hemisphere and the northern hemisphere, revealing the global nature of the heating added by greenhouse gases (GHGs). Trends in heat extremes and extreme precipitation are correlated strongly with the global/tropical trends in Thetae_sfc. The tropical amplification of Thetae_sfc is as large as the arctic amplification of SAT, accounting for the observed global positive trends in deep convection and a 20% increase in heat extremes. With unchecked GHG emissions, while SAT warming can reach 4.8[Formula: see text] by 2100, the global mean Thetae_sfc can increase by as much as 12[Formula: see text], with corresponding increases of 12[Formula: see text] (median) to 24[Formula: see text] (5% of grid points) in land surface temperature extremes, a 14- to 30-fold increase in frequency of heat extremes, a 40% increase in the energy available for tropical deep convection, and an up to 60% increase in extreme precipitation.

Nature and Strength of Sulfur-Centered Hydrogen Bond in Methanethiol Aqueous Solutions.

Methanethiol (M) and water (W) clusters like dimers (M1W1, M2, and W2), trimers (M1W2, M2W1, M3, and W3), and tetramers (M1W3, M2W2, M3W1, M4, and W4) were studied to assess the strength of sulfur-centered hydrogen bonding using different levels of theories, viz, HF, MP2, MP3, MP4, B3LYP, B3LYP-D3, CCSD, CCSD(T)-F12, and CCSD(T) along with aug-cc-pVNZ (where N = D, T, and Q) basis sets. Interaction energies were found to be in the range of -3.3 to -5.3 kcal/mol for the dimers, -8.0 to -16.7 kcal/mol for the trimers, and -13.5 to -29.5 kcal/mol for the tetramers at the B3LYP-D3/CBS limit level of theory. Normal modes of vibrations computed at the B3LYP/cc-pVDZ level of theory were seen to be in good agreement with the experimental values. Local energy decomposition calculations using the DLPNO-CCSD(T) level of theory indicated the domination of electrostatic interactions' contribution to the interaction energy in all cluster systems. Furthermore, atoms in molecules and natural bond orbital calculations both carried out at the B3LYP-D3/aug-cc-pVQZ level of theory aided in visualizing the hydrogen bonds besides proving a rationale for the strength of the hydrogen bonds and thereby the stability of these cluster systems.

Biomedical Data Commons (BMDC) prioritizes B-lymphocyte non-coding genetic variants in Type 1 Diabetes.

The repurposing of biomedical data is inhibited by its fragmented and multi-formatted nature that requires redundant investment of time and resources by data scientists. This is particularly true for Type 1 Diabetes (T1D), one of the most intensely studied common childhood diseases. Intense investigation of the contribution of pancreatic ß-islet and T-lymphocytes in T1D has been made. However, genetic contributions from B-lymphocytes, which are known to play a role in a subset of T1D patients, remain relatively understudied. We have addressed this issue through the creation of Biomedical Data Commons (BMDC), a knowledge graph that integrates data from multiple sources into a single queryable format. This increases the speed of analysis by multiple orders of magnitude. We develop a pipeline using B-lymphocyte multi-dimensional epigenome and connectome data and deploy BMDC to assess genetic variants in the context of Type 1 Diabetes (T1D). Pipeline-identified variants are primarily common, non-coding, poorly conserved, and are of unknown clinical significance. While variants and their chromatin connectivity are cell-type specific, they are associated with well-studied disease genes in T-lymphocytes. Candidates include established variants in the HLA-DQB1 and HLA-DRB1 and IL2RA loci that have previously been demonstrated to protect against T1D in humans and mice providing validation for this method. Others are included in the well-established T1D GRS2 genetic risk scoring method. More intriguingly, other prioritized variants are completely novel and form the basis for future mechanistic and clinical validation studies The BMDC community-based platform can be expanded and repurposed to increase the accessibility, reproducibility, and productivity of biomedical information for diverse applications including the prioritization of cell type-specific disease alleles from complex phenotypes.

Effects of fossil fuel and total anthropogenic emission removal on public health and climate.

Anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols are associated with climate change and human health risks. We used a global model to estimate the climate and public health outcomes attributable to fossil fuel use, indicating the potential benefits of a phaseout. We show that it can avoid an excess mortality rate of 3.61 (2.96-4.21) million per year from outdoor air pollution worldwide. This could be up to 5.55 (4.52-6.52) million per year by additionally controlling nonfossil anthropogenic sources. Globally, fossil-fuel-related emissions account for about 65% of the excess mortality, and 70% of the climate cooling by anthropogenic aerosols. The chemical influence of air pollution on aeolian dust contributes to the aerosol cooling. Because aerosols affect the hydrologic cycle, removing the anthropogenic emissions in the model increases rainfall by 10-70% over densely populated regions in India and 10-30% over northern China, and by 10-40% over Central America, West Africa, and the drought-prone Sahel, thus contributing to water and food security. Since aerosols mask the anthropogenic rise in global temperature, removing fossil-fuel-generated particles liberates 0.51(±0.03) °C and all pollution particles 0.73(±0.03) °C warming, reaching around 2 °C over North America and Northeast Asia. The steep temperature increase from removing aerosols can be moderated to about 0.36(±0.06) °C globally by the simultaneous reduction of tropospheric ozone and methane. We conclude that a rapid phaseout of fossil-fuel-related emissions and major reductions of other anthropogenic sources are needed to save millions of lives, restore aerosol-perturbed rainfall patterns, and limit global warming to 2 °C.

Experimental evidence on promotion of electric and improved biomass cookstoves.

Improved cookstoves (ICS) can deliver "triple wins" by improving household health, local environments, and global climate. Yet their potential is in doubt because of low and slow diffusion, likely because of constraints imposed by differences in culture, geography, institutions, and missing markets. We offer insights about this challenge based on a multiyear, multiphase study with nearly 1,000 households in the Indian Himalayas. In phase I, we combined desk reviews, simulations, and focus groups to diagnose barriers to ICS adoption. In phase II, we implemented a set of pilots to simulate a mature market and designed an intervention that upgraded the supply chain (combining marketing and home delivery), provided rebates and financing to lower income and liquidity constraints, and allowed households a choice among ICS. In phase III, we used findings from these pilots to implement a field experiment to rigorously test whether this combination of upgraded supply and demand promotion stimulates adoption. The experiment showed that, compared with zero purchase in control villages, over half of intervention households bought an ICS, although demand was highly price-sensitive. Demand was at least twice as high for electric stoves relative to biomass ICS. Even among households that received a negligible price discount, the upgraded supply chain alone induced a 28 percentage-point increase in ICS ownership. Although the bundled intervention is resource-intensive, the full costs are lower than the social benefits of ICS promotion. Our findings suggest that market analysis, robust supply chains, and price discounts are critical for ICS diffusion.

Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate system.

The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.

Arabian Sea tropical cyclones intensified by emissions of black carbon and other aerosols.

Throughout the year, average sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea are warm enough to support the development of tropical cyclones, but the atmospheric monsoon circulation and associated strong vertical wind shear limits cyclone development and intensification, only permitting a pre-monsoon and post-monsoon period for cyclogenesis. Thus a recent increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean is thought to be related to the weakening of the climatological vertical wind shear. At the same time, anthropogenic emissions of aerosols have increased sixfold since the 1930s, leading to a weakening of the southwesterly lower-level and easterly upper-level winds that define the monsoonal circulation over the Arabian Sea. In principle, this aerosol-driven circulation modification could affect tropical cyclone intensity over the Arabian Sea, but so far no such linkage has been shown. Here we report an increase in the intensity of pre-monsoon Arabian Sea tropical cyclones during the period 1979-2010, and show that this change in storm strength is a consequence of a simultaneous upward trend in anthropogenic black carbon and sulphate emissions. We use a combination of observational, reanalysis and model data to demonstrate that the anomalous circulation, which is radiatively forced by these anthropogenic aerosols, reduces the basin-wide vertical wind shear, creating an environment more favourable for tropical cyclone intensification. Because most Arabian Sea tropical cyclones make landfall, our results suggest an additional impact on human health from regional air pollution.

Recent climate and air pollution impacts on Indian agriculture.

Recent research on the agricultural impacts of climate change has primarily focused on the roles of temperature and precipitation. These studies show that India has already been negatively affected by recent climate trends. However, anthropogenic climate changes are a result of both global emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). Two potent SLCPs, tropospheric ozone and black carbon, have direct effects on crop yields beyond their indirect effects through climate; emissions of black carbon and ozone precursors have risen dramatically in India over the past three decades. Here, to our knowledge for the first time, we present results of the combined effects of climate change and the direct effects of SLCPs on wheat and rice yields in India from 1980 to 2010. Our statistical model suggests that, averaged over India, yields in 2010 were up to 36% lower for wheat than they otherwise would have been, absent climate and pollutant emissions trends, with some densely populated states experiencing 50% relative yield losses. [Our point estimates for rice (-20%) are similarly large, but not statistically significant.] Upper-bound estimates suggest that an overwhelming fraction (90%) of these losses is due to the direct effects of SLCPs. Gains from addressing regional air pollution could thus counter expected future yield losses resulting from direct climate change effects of LLGHGs.

Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice.

The decline of Arctic sea ice has been documented in over 30 y of satellite passive microwave observations. The resulting darkening of the Arctic and its amplification of global warming was hypothesized almost 50 y ago but has yet to be verified with direct observations. This study uses satellite radiation budget measurements along with satellite microwave sea ice data to document the Arctic-wide decrease in planetary albedo and its amplifying effect on the warming. The analysis reveals a striking relationship between planetary albedo and sea ice cover, quantities inferred from two independent satellite instruments. We find that the Arctic planetary albedo has decreased from 0.52 to 0.48 between 1979 and 2011, corresponding to an additional 6.4 ± 0.9 W/m(2) of solar energy input into the Arctic Ocean region since 1979. Averaged over the globe, this albedo decrease corresponds to a forcing that is 25% as large as that due to the change in CO2 during this period, considerably larger than expectations from models and other less direct recent estimates. Changes in cloudiness appear to play a negligible role in observed Arctic darkening, thus reducing the possibility of Arctic cloud albedo feedbacks mitigating future Arctic warming.

Benefits of an Android Based Tablet Application in Primary Screening for Eye Diseases in a Rural Population, India.

To investigate the effectiveness, efficiency and cost gains in collecting patient eye health information from remote rural villages of India by trained field investigators through an Android Based Tablet Application namely 'Sankara Electronic Remote Vision Information System (SERVIS)". During January and March 2016, a population based cross-sectional study was conducted in three Indian states employing SERVIS and manual method. The SERVIS application has a 48-items survey instrument programed into the application. Data on 281 individuals were collected for each of these methods as part of screening. The demographic details of individuals between both screening methods were comparable (P>0.05). The mean time (in minutes) to screen an individual by SERVIS was significantly less when compared to manual method (6.57±1.46 versus 11.93±1.53) (P<0.0001). The efficiency of SERVIS in screening was significantly evident as 26% (n = 73) of the patients screened have been referred to campsite and 69.8% (n = 51) of those referred were visited the campsite for a detailed eye examination by an ophthalmologist. The cost of screening through SERVIS is significantly less when compared to manual method; INR 7,633 (USD 113.9) Versus INR 24,780 (USD 370). SERVIS is an effective and efficient tool in terms of patients' referral conversion to the camp site leading to timely detection of potential blinding eye conditions and their appropriate treatment. This ensures timely prevention of avoidable blindness and visual impairment. In addition, the storage and access of eye health epidemiological quality data is helpful to plan appropriate blindness prevention initiatives in rural India.

Retention of laryngoscopy skills in medical students: a randomised, cross-over study of the Macintosh, A.P. Advance(™) , C-MAC(®) and Airtraq(®) laryngoscopes.

In addition to being effective and easy to learn how to use, the ideal laryngoscope should be associated with minimal reduction in skill performance during gaps in practice over time. We compared the time taken to intubate the trachea of a manikin by novice medical students immediately after training, and then after 1 month, with no intervening practice. We designed a two-period, four-group, randomised, cross-over trial to compare the Macintosh, Venner(™) A.P. Advance(™) with difficult airway blade, C-MAC(®) with D-Blade and Airtraq(®) with wireless video-viewer. A bougie was used to aid intubation with the Macintosh and the C-MAC. After training, there was no significant difference in median (IQR [range]) intubation time using the videolaryngoscopes compared with the Macintosh, which took 30 (26.5-35 [12-118])s. One month later, the intubation time was longer using the C-MAC (41 (29.5-52 [20-119])s; p = 0.002) and A.P. Advance (40 (28.5-57.5 [21-107])s; p = 0.0003)m compared with the Macintosh (27 (21-29 [16-90])s); there was no difference using the Airtraq (27 (20.5-32.5 [15-94])s; p = 0.258) compared with the Macintosh. While skill acquisition after a brief period of learning and practice was equal for each laryngoscope, performance levels differed after 1 month without practice. In particular, the consistency of performance using the C-MAC and A.P. Advance was worse compared with the Macintosh and the Airtraq. While the clinical significance of this is doubtful, we believe that reliable and consistent performance at laryngoscopy is desirable; for the devices that we tested, this requires regular practice.

Reductions in indoor black carbon concentrations from improved biomass stoves in rural India.

Deployment of improved biomass burning cookstoves is recognized as a black carbon (BC) mitigation measure that has the potential to achieve health benefits and climate cobenefits. Yet, few field based studies document BC concentration reductions (and resulting human exposure) resulting from improved stove usage. In this paper, data are presented from 277 real-world cooking sessions collected during two field studies to document the impacts on indoor BC concentrations inside village kitchens as a result of switching from traditional stoves to improved forced draft (FD) stoves. Data collection utilized new low-cost cellphone methods to monitor BC, cooking duration, and fuel consumption. A cross sectional study recorded a reduction of 36% in BC during cooking sessions. An independent paired sample study demonstrated a statistically significant reduction of 40% in 24 h BC concentrations when traditional stoves were replaced with FD stoves. Reductions observed in these field studies differ from emission factor reductions (up to 99%) observed under controlled conditions in laboratory studies. Other nonstove sources (e.g., kerosene lamps, ambient concentrations) likely offset the reductions. Health exposure studies should utilize reductions determined by field measurements inside village kitchens, in conjunction with laboratory data, to assess the health impacts of new cooking technologies.

Solar absorption by elemental and brown carbon determined from spectral observations.

Black carbon (BC) is functionally defined as the absorbing component of atmospheric total carbonaceous aerosols (TC) and is typically dominated by soot-like elemental carbon (EC). However, organic carbon (OC) has also been shown to absorb strongly at visible to UV wavelengths and the absorbing organics are referred to as brown carbon (BrC), which is typically not represented in climate models. We propose an observationally based analytical method for rigorously partitioning measured absorption aerosol optical depths (AAOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA) among EC and BrC, using multiwavelength measurements of total (EC, OC, and dust) absorption. EC is found to be strongly absorbing (SSA of 0.38) whereas the BrC SSA varies globally between 0.77 and 0.85. The method is applied to the California region. We find TC (EC + BrC) contributes 81% of the total absorption at 675 nm and 84% at 440 nm. The BrC absorption at 440 nm is about 40% of the EC, whereas at 675 nm it is less than 10% of EC. We find an enhanced absorption due to OC in the summer months and in southern California (related to forest fires and secondary OC). The fractions and trends are broadly consistent with aerosol chemical-transport models as well as with regional emission inventories, implying that we have obtained a representative estimate for BrC absorption. The results demonstrate that current climate models that treat OC as nonabsorbing are underestimating the total warming effect of carbonaceous aerosols by neglecting part of the atmospheric heating, particularly over biomass-burning regions that emit BrC.

Observationally constrained estimates of carbonaceous aerosol radiative forcing.

Carbonaceous aerosols (CA) emitted by fossil and biomass fuels consist of black carbon (BC), a strong absorber of solar radiation, and organic matter (OM). OM scatters as well as absorbs solar radiation. The absorbing component of OM, which is ignored in most climate models, is referred to as brown carbon (BrC). Model estimates of the global CA radiative forcing range from 0 to 0.7 Wm(-2), to be compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimate for the pre-Industrial to the present net radiative forcing of about 1.6 Wm(-2). This study provides a model-independent, observationally based estimate of the CA direct radiative forcing. Ground-based aerosol network data is integrated with field data and satellite-based aerosol observations to provide a decadal (2001 through 2009) global view of the CA optical properties and direct radiative forcing. The estimated global CA direct radiative effect is about 0.75 Wm(-2) (0.5 to 1.0). This study identifies the global importance of BrC, which is shown to contribute about 20% to 550-nm CA solar absorption globally. Because of the inclusion of BrC, the net effect of OM is close to zero and the CA forcing is nearly equal to that of BC. The CA direct radiative forcing is estimated to be about 0.65 (0.5 to about 0.8) Wm(-2), thus comparable to or exceeding that by methane. Caused in part by BrC absorption, CAs have a net warming effect even over open biomass-burning regions in Africa and the Amazon.

Influence of the substituents on the CH...π interaction: benzene-methane complex.

Recently we showed that the binding energy of the benzene...acetylene complex could be tuned up to 5 kcal/mol by substituting the hydrogen atoms of the benzene molecule with multiple electron-donating/electron-withdrawing groups (J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2012, 8, 1935). In continuation, we have here examined the influence of various substituents on the CH...π interaction present in the benzene...methane complex using the CCSD(T) method at the complete basis set limit. The influence of multiple fluoro substituents on the interaction strength of the benzene...methane complex was found to be insignificant, while the interaction strength linearly increases with successive addition of methyl groups. The influence of other substituents such as CN, NO2, COOH, Cl, and OH was found to be negligible. The NH2 group enhances the binding strength similarly to the methyl group. Energy decomposition analysis predicts the dispersion energy component to be on an average three times larger than the electrostatic energy component. Multidimensional correlation analysis shows that the exchange-repulsion and dispersion terms are correlated very well with the interaction distance (r) and with a combination of the interaction distance (r) and molar refractivity (MR), while the electrostatic component correlates well when the Hammett constant is used in combination with the interaction distance (r). Various recently developed DFT methods were used to assess their ability to predict the binding energy of various substituted benzene...methane complexes, and the M06-2X, B97-D, and B3LYP-D3 methods were found to be the best performers, giving a mean absolute deviation of ∼0.15 kcal/mol.

Aerosol demasking enhances climate warming over South Asia.

Anthropogenic aerosols mask the climate warming caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs). In the absence of observational constraints, large uncertainties plague the estimates of this masking effect. Here we used the abrupt reduction in anthropogenic emissions observed during the COVID-19 societal slow-down to characterize the aerosol masking effect over South Asia. During this period, the aerosol loading decreased substantially and our observations reveal that the magnitude of this aerosol demasking corresponds to nearly three-fourths of the CO2-induced radiative forcing over South Asia. Concurrent measurements over the northern Indian Ocean unveiled a ~7% increase in the earth's surface-reaching solar radiation (surface brightening). Aerosol-induced atmospheric solar heating decreased by ~0.4 K d-1. Our results reveal that under clear sky conditions, anthropogenic emissions over South Asia lead to nearly 1.4 W m-2 heating at the top of the atmosphere during the period March-May. A complete phase-out of today's fossil fuel combustion to zero-emission renewables would result in rapid aerosol demasking, while the GHGs linger on.