A simple dynamic model explains the diversity of island birds worldwide.

Colonization, speciation and extinction are dynamic processes that influence global patterns of species richness1-6. Island biogeography theory predicts that the contribution of these processes to the accumulation of species diversity depends on the area and isolation of the island7,8. Notably, there has been no robust global test of this prediction for islands where speciation cannot be ignored9, because neither the appropriate data nor the analytical tools have been available. Here we address both deficiencies to reveal, for island birds, the empirical shape of the general relationships that determine how colonization, extinction and speciation rates co-vary with the area and isolation of islands. We compiled a global molecular phylogenetic dataset of birds on islands, based on the terrestrial avifaunas of 41 oceanic archipelagos worldwide (including 596 avian taxa), and applied a new analysis method to estimate the sensitivity of island-specific rates of colonization, speciation and extinction to island features (area and isolation). Our model predicts-with high explanatory power-several global relationships. We found a decline in colonization with isolation, a decline in extinction with area and an increase in speciation with area and isolation. Combining the theoretical foundations of island biogeography7,8 with the temporal information contained in molecular phylogenies10 proves a powerful approach to reveal the fundamental relationships that govern variation in biodiversity across the planet.

Phylogenetic tree statistics: A systematic overview using the new R package 'treestats'.

Phylogenetic trees are believed to contain a wealth of information on diversification processes. However, comparing phylogenetic trees is not straightforward due to their high dimensionality. Researchers have therefore defined a wide range of low-dimensional summary statistics. Currently, it remains unexplored to what extent these summary statistics cover the same underlying information and what summary statistics best explain observed variation across phylogenies. Furthermore, a large subset of available summary statistics focusses on measuring the topological features of a phylogenetic tree, but are often only explored at the extreme edge cases of the fully balanced or imbalanced tree and not for trees of intermediate balance. Here, we introduce a new R package called 'treestats', that provides speed optimized code to compute 70 summary statistics. We study correlations between summary statistics on empirical trees and on trees simulated using several diversification models. Furthermore, we introduce an algorithm to create intermediately balanced trees in a well-defined manner, in order to explore variation in summary statistics across a balance gradient. We find that almost all summary statistics are correlated with tree size, and find that it is difficult, if not impossible, to correct for tree size, unless the tree generating model is known. Furthermore, we find that across empirical and simulated trees, at least three large clusters of correlated summary statistics can be found, where statistics group together based on information used (topology or branching times). However, the finer grained correlation structure appears to depend strongly on either the taxonomic group studied (in empirical studies) or the tree generating model (in simulation studies). Amongst statistics describing the (im)balance of a tree, we find that almost all statistics vary non-linearly, and sometimes even non-monotonically, with our generated balance gradient. This indicates that balance is perhaps a more complex property of a tree than previously thought. Furthermore, using our new imbalancing algorithm, we devise a numerical test to identify balance statistics, and identify several statistics as balance statistics that were not previously considered as such. Lastly, our results lead to several recommendations on which statistics to select when analyzing and comparing phylogenetic trees.

The Phylogenetic Limits to Diversity-Dependent Diversification.

While the theory of micro-evolution by natural selection assigns a crucial role to competition, its role in macroevolution is less clear. Phylogenetic evidence for a decelerating accumulation of lineages suggests a feedback of lineage diversity on diversification. However, does this feedback only occur between close relatives, or do distant relatives also influence each other's diversification? In other words: are there phylogenetic limits to this diversity-dependence? Islands form ideal systems to answer these questions because their boundedness facilitates an overview of all potential competitors. The DAISIE (Dynamic Assembly of Island biota through Speciation Immigration and Extinction) framework allows for testing the presence of diversity-dependence on islands given phylogenetic data on colonization and branching times. The current inference models in DAISIE assume that this diversity-dependence only applies within a colonizing clade, i.e., all mainland species can colonize and diversify independently from one another. We term this clade-specific (CS) diversity-dependence. Here we introduce a new DAISIE model that assumes that diversity-dependence applies to all island species of a taxonomic group regardless of their mainland ancestry, i.e., diversity-dependence applies both to species within the same clade and between different clades established by different mainland species. We call this island-wide (IW) diversity-dependence. We present a method to compute a likelihood for this model given phylogenetic data on colonization and branching events and use likelihood ratio bootstrapping to compare it to the likelihood of the CS model in order to overcome biases known for standard model selection. We apply it to the diversification of Eleutherodactylus frogs on Hispaniola. Across the Greater Antilles archipelago, this radiation shows repeated patterns of diversification in ecotypes that are similar across clades. This could be suggestive of overlapping niche space and hence between-clade interactions, i.e., IW diversity-dependence. But it could also be suggestive of only within-clade interactions because between-clade interactions would have blocked the same ecotype from re-appearing. We find that the CS model fits the data much better than the IW model, indicating that different colonizations while resulting in similar ecotypes, are sufficiently distinct to avoid interacting strongly. We argue that non-overlapping distributions between clades (both spatially and in terms of ecotypes) cannot be used as evidence of CS diversity-dependence, because this pattern may be a consequence of IW diversity-dependence. By contrast, by using phylogenetic data rather than distributional data our method does allow for inferring the phylogenetic limits to diversity-dependent diversification. We discuss possibilities for future extensions and applications of our modelling approach. [Adaptive radiation; birth-death model; Caribbean; diversity-dependence; Eleutherodactylus; island biogeography.].

Nucleotide Substitutions during Speciation may Explain Substitution Rate Variation.

Although molecular mechanisms associated with the generation of mutations are highly conserved across taxa, there is widespread variation in mutation rates between evolutionary lineages. When phylogenies are reconstructed based on nucleotide sequences, such variation is typically accounted for by the assumption of a relaxed molecular clock, which is a statistical distribution of mutation rates without much underlying biological mechanism. Here, we propose that variation in accumulated mutations may be partly explained by an elevated mutation rate during speciation. Using simulations, we show how shifting mutations from branches to speciation events impacts inference of branching times in phylogenetic reconstruction. Furthermore, the resulting nucleotide alignments are better described by a relaxed than by a strict molecular clock. Thus, elevated mutation rates during speciation potentially explain part of the variation in substitution rates that is observed across the tree of life. [Molecular clock; phylogenetic reconstruction; speciation; substitution rate variation.].

Miocene Climate and Habitat Change Drove Diversification in Bicyclus, Africa's Largest Radiation of Satyrine Butterflies.

Compared to other regions, the drivers of diversification in Africa are poorly understood. We studied a radiation of insects with over 100 species occurring in a wide range of habitats across the Afrotropics to investigate the fundamental evolutionary processes and geological events that generate and maintain patterns of species richness on the continent. By investigating the evolutionary history of Bicyclus butterflies within a phylogenetic framework, we inferred the group's origin at the Oligo-Miocene boundary from ancestors in the Congolian rainforests of central Africa. Abrupt climatic fluctuations during the Miocene (ca. 19-17 Ma) likely fragmented ancestral populations, resulting in at least eight early-divergent lineages. Only one of these lineages appears to have diversified during the drastic climate and biome changes of the early Miocene, radiating into the largest group of extant species. The other seven lineages diversified in forest ecosystems during the late Miocene and Pleistocene when climatic conditions were more favorable-warmer and wetter. Our results suggest changing Neogene climate, uplift of eastern African orogens, and biotic interactions have had different effects on the various subclades of Bicyclus, producing one of the most spectacular butterfly radiations in Africa. [Afrotropics; biodiversity; biome; biotic interactions; Court Jester; extinction; grasslands; paleoclimates; Red Queen; refugia forests; dependent-diversification; speciation.].

The Demographic Consequences of Adaptation: Evidence from Experimental Evolution.

AbstractThe process of adaptation toward novel environments is directly connected to the acquisition of higher fitness relative to others. Such increased fitness is obtained by changes in life history traits that may directly impact population dynamics. From a functional perspective, increased fitness can be achieved through higher resource use or more efficient resource use, each potentially having its own impact on population dynamics. In the first case, adaptation is expected to directly translate into higher population growth. In the second case, adaptation requires less energy and hence may lead to higher carrying capacity. Adaptation may thus lead to changes in ecological dynamics and vice versa. Here, by using a combination of evolutionary experiments with spider mites and a population dynamic model, we investigate how an increase in fecundity (a validated proxy for adaptation) affects a population's ecological dynamics. Our results show that adaptation can positively affect population growth rate and either positively or negatively affect carrying capacity, depending on the ecological condition leading to variation in adaptation. These findings show the importance of evolution for population dynamics in changing environments, which may ultimately affect the stability and resilience of populations.

Inferring the Effect of Species Interactions on Trait Evolution.

Models of trait evolution form an important part of macroevolutionary biology. The Brownian motion model and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models have become classic (null) models of character evolution, in which species evolve independently. Recently, models incorporating species interactions have been developed, particularly involving competition where abiotic factors pull species toward an optimal trait value and competitive interactions drive the trait values apart. However, these models assume a fitness function rather than derive it from population dynamics and they do not consider dynamics of the trait variance. Here, we develop a general coherent trait evolution framework where the fitness function is based on a model of population dynamics, and therefore it can, in principle, accommodate any type of species interaction. We illustrate our framework with a model of abundance-dependent competitive interactions against a macroevolutionary background encoded in a phylogenetic tree. We develop an inference tool based on Approximate Bayesian Computation and test it on simulated data (of traits at the tips). We find that inference performs well when the diversity predicted by the parameters equals the number of species in the phylogeny. We then fit the model to empirical data of baleen whale body lengths, using three different summary statistics, and compare it to a model without population dynamics and a model where competition depends on the total metabolic rate of the competitors. We show that the unweighted model performs best for the least informative summary statistic, while the model with competition weighted by the total metabolic rate fits the data slightly better than the other two models for the two more informative summary statistics. Regardless of the summary statistic used, the three models substantially differ in their predictions of the abundance distribution. Therefore, data on abundance distributions will allow us to better distinguish the models from one another, and infer the nature of species interactions. Thus, our framework provides a conceptual approach to reveal species interactions underlying trait evolution and identifies the data needed to do so in practice. [Approximate Bayesian computation; competition; phylogeny; population dynamics; simulations; species interaction; trait evolution.].

Detecting Lineage-Specific Shifts in Diversification: A Proper Likelihood Approach.

The branching patterns of molecular phylogenies are generally assumed to contain information on rates of the underlying speciation and extinction processes. Simple birth-death models with constant, time-varying, or diversity-dependent rates have been invoked to explain these patterns. They have one assumption in common: all lineages have the same set of diversification rates at a given point in time. It seems likely, however, that there is variability in diversification rates across subclades in a phylogenetic tree. This has inspired the construction of models that allow multiple rate regimes across the phylogeny, with instantaneous shifts between these regimes. Several methods exist for calculating the likelihood of a phylogeny under a specified mapping of diversification regimes and for performing inference on the most likely diversification history that gave rise to a particular phylogenetic tree. Here, we show that the likelihood computation of these methods is not correct. We provide a new framework to compute the likelihood correctly and show, with simulations of a single shift, that the correct likelihood indeed leads to parameter estimates that are on average in much better agreement with the generating parameters than the incorrect likelihood. Moreover, we show that our corrected likelihood can be extended to multiple rate shifts in time-dependent and diversity-dependent models. We argue that identifying shifts in diversification rates is a nontrivial model selection exercise where one has to choose whether shifts in now-extinct lineages are taken into account or not. Hence, our framework also resolves the recent debate on such unobserved shifts. [Diversification; macroevolution; phylogeny; speciation].

Contribution of opsins and chromophores to cone pigment variation across populations of Lake Victoria cichlids.

Adaptation to heterogeneous sensory environments has been implicated as a key parameter in speciation. Cichlid fish are a textbook example of divergent visual adaptation, mediated by variation in the sequences and expression levels of cone opsin genes (encoding the protein component of visual pigments). In some vertebrates including fish, visual sensitivity is also tuned by the ratio of vitamin A1 /A2 -derived chromophores (i.e., the light-sensitive component of the visual pigment bound to the opsin protein), where higher proportions of A2 cause a more red-shifted wavelength absorbance. This study explores the variation in chromophore ratios across multiple cichlid populations in Lake Victoria, using as a proxy the expression of the gene Cyp27c1, which has been shown to regulate the conversion of vitamin A1 into vitamin A2 in several vertebrates. This study focuses on sympatric Pundamilia cichlids, where species with blue or red male coloration co-occur at multiple islands but occupy different depths and consequently different visual habitats. In the red species, we found higher cyp27c1 expression in populations from turbid waters than from clear waters, but there was no such pattern in the blue species. Across populations, differences between the sympatric species in cyp27c1 expression had a consistent relationship with species differences in opsin expression patterns, but the red/blue identity reversed between clear and turbid waters. To assess the contribution of heritable vs. environmental causes of variation, we tested whether light manipulations induce a change in cyp27c1 expression in the laboratory. We found that cyp27c1 expression was not influenced by experimental light conditions, suggesting that the observed variation in the wild is due to genetic differences. Nonetheless, compared to other cichlid species, cyp27c1 is expressed at very low levels in Pundamilia, suggesting that it may not be relevant for visual adaptation in this species. Conclusively, establishing the biological importance of this variation requires testing of actual A1 /A2 ratios in the eye, as well as its consequences for visual performance.

Opposite outcomes of coinfection at individual and population scales.

Coinfecting parasites and pathogens remain a leading challenge for global public health due to their consequences for individual-level infection risk and disease progression. However, a clear understanding of the population-level consequences of coinfection is lacking. Here, we constructed a model that includes three individual-level effects of coinfection: mortality, fecundity, and transmission. We used the model to investigate how these individual-level consequences of coinfection scale up to produce population-level infection patterns. To parameterize this model, we conducted a 4-y cohort study in African buffalo to estimate the individual-level effects of coinfection with two bacterial pathogens, bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and brucellosis, across a range of demographic and environmental contexts. At the individual level, our empirical results identified bTB as a risk factor for acquiring brucellosis, but we found no association between brucellosis and the risk of acquiring bTB. Both infections were associated with reductions in survival and neither infection was associated with reductions in fecundity. The model reproduced coinfection patterns in the data and predicted opposite impacts of coinfection at individual and population scales: Whereas bTB facilitated brucellosis infection at the individual level, our model predicted the presence of brucellosis to have a strong negative impact on bTB at the population level. In modeled populations where brucellosis was present, the endemic prevalence and basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) of bTB were lower than in populations without brucellosis. Therefore, these results provide a data-driven example of competition between coinfecting pathogens that occurs when one pathogen facilitates secondary infections at the individual level.

The epidemiology of COVID-19 in ten Southeast Asian countries.

INTRODUCTION: Periodic benchmarking of the epidemiology of COVID-19 in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries is critical for the continuous understanding of the transmission and control of COVID-19 in the region. The incidence, mortality, testing and vaccination rates within the ASEAN region from 1 January 2020 to 15 October 2021 is analysed in this paper. METHODS: COVID-19 data on cases, deaths, testing, and vaccinations were extracted from the Our World in Data (OWID) COVID-19 data repository for all the ten ASEAN countries. Comparative time-trends of the epidemiology of COVID-19 using the incidence rate, cumulative case fatality rate (CFR), delay-adjusted case fatality rate, cumulative mortality rate (MR), test positivity rate (TPR), cumulative testing rate (TR) and vaccination rate was carried out. RESULTS: Over the study period, a total of 12,720,661 cases and 271,475 deaths was reported within the ASEAN region. Trends of daily per capita cases were observed to peak between July and September 2021 for the ASEAN region. The cumulative case fatality rate (CFR) in Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, was of 0.9% (N=68), 2.2% (N=2,610), 3.5% (N=142,889), 0.1% (N=36), 1.2% (N=27,700), 4.0% (N=18,297), 1.6% (N=40,424), 0.1% (N=215), 1.7% (N=18,123), and 2.6% (N=21,043), respectively. CFR was consistently highest between January-June 2020. The cumulative mortality rate (MR) was 9.5, 13.7, 51.4, 0.2, 80.3, 32.4, 34.5, 1.6, 23.9 and 19.7 per 100,000 population, respectively. The cumulative test positivity rate (TPR) was 8.4%, 16.9%, 4.6%, 7.5%, 11.1%, 12.9%, 0.5%, 11.7%, and 3.6%, with the cumulative testing rate (TR) at 25.0, 90.1, 27.4, 917.7, 75.8, 177.8, 3303.3, 195.2, and 224.9 tests per 1,000 population in Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, respectively. The percentage of population that completed vaccinations (VR) was 44.5%, 65.3%, 18.5%, 28.2%, 61.8%, 6.8%, 19.2%, 76.8%, 22.7%, and 10% in Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, respectively. CONCLUSION: In 2020, most countries in ASEAN had higher case fatality rates but lower mortalities per population when compared to the third quarter of 2021 where higher mortalities per population were observed. Low testing rates have been one of the factors leading to high test positivity rates. Slow initiation of vaccination programs was found to be the key factor leading to high incidence and case fatality rate in most countries in ASEAN. Effective public health measures were able to interrupt the transmission of this novel virus to some extent. Increasing preparedness capacity within the ASEAN region is critical to ensure that any future similar outbreaks can be dealt with collectively.

Detecting the Dependence of Diversification on Multiple Traits from Phylogenetic Trees and Trait Data.

Species diversification may be determined by many different variables, including the traits of the diversifying lineages. The state-dependent speciation and extinction (SSE) framework contains methods to detect the dependence of diversification on these traits. For the analysis of traits with multiple states, MuSSE (multiple-states dependent speciation and extinction) was developed. However, MuSSE and other SSE models have been shown to yield false positives, because they cannot separate differential diversification rates from dependence of diversification on the observed traits. The recently introduced method HiSSE (hidden-state-dependent speciation and extinction) resolves this problem by allowing a hidden state to affect diversification rates. Unfortunately, HiSSE does not allow traits with more than two states, and, perhaps more interestingly, the simultaneous action of multiple traits on diversification. Herein, we introduce an R package (SecSSE: several examined and concealed states-dependent speciation and extinction) that combines the features of HiSSE and MuSSE to simultaneously infer state-dependent diversification across two or more examined (observed) traits or states while accounting for the role of a possible concealed (hidden) trait. Moreover, SecSSE also has improved functionality when compared with its two "parents." First, it allows for an observed trait being in two or more states simultaneously, which is useful for example when a taxon is a generalist or when the exact state is not precisely known. Second, it provides the correct likelihood when conditioned on nonextinction, which has been incorrectly implemented in HiSSE and other SSE models. To illustrate our method, we apply SecSSE to seven previous studies that used MuSSE, and find that in five out of seven cases, the conclusions drawn based on MuSSE were premature. We test with simulations whether SecSSE sacrifices statistical power to avoid the high Type I error problem of MuSSE, but we find that this is not the case: for the majority of simulations where the observed traits affect diversification, SecSSE detects this.

Inferring Diversification Rate Variation From Phylogenies With Fossils.

Time-calibrated phylogenies of living species have been widely used to study the tempo and mode of species diversification. However, it is increasingly clear that inferences about species diversification-extinction rates in particular-can be unreliable in the absence of paleontological data. We introduce a general framework based on the fossilized birth-death process for studying speciation-extinction dynamics on phylogenies of extant and extinct species. The model assumes that phylogenies can be modeled as a mixture of distinct evolutionary rate regimes and that a hierarchical Poisson process governs the number of such rate regimes across a tree. We implemented the model in BAMM, a computational framework that uses reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to simulate a posterior distribution of macroevolutionary rate regimes conditional on the branching times and topology of a phylogeny. The implementation, we describe can be applied to paleontological phylogenies, neontological phylogenies, and to phylogenies that include both extant and extinct taxa. We evaluate performance of the model on data sets simulated under a range of diversification scenarios. We find that speciation rates are reliably inferred in the absence of paleontological data. However, the inclusion of fossil observations substantially increases the accuracy of extinction rate estimates. We demonstrate that inferences are relatively robust to at least some violations of model assumptions, including heterogeneity in preservation rates and misspecification of the number of occurrences in paleontological data sets.

Additional Analytical Support for a New Method to Compute the Likelihood of Diversification Models.

Molecular phylogenies have been increasingly recognized as an important source of information on species diversification. For many models of macroevolution, analytical likelihood formulas have been derived to infer macroevolutionary parameters from phylogenies. A few years ago, a general framework to numerically compute such likelihood formulas was proposed, which accommodates models that allow speciation and/or extinction rates to depend on diversity. This framework calculates the likelihood as the probability of the diversification process being consistent with the phylogeny from the root to the tips. However, while some readers found the framework presented in Etienne et al. (Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 279(1732):1300-1309, 2012) convincing, others still questioned it (personal communication), despite numerical evidence that for special cases the framework yields the same (i.e., within double precision) numerical value for the likelihood as analytical formulas do that were independently derived for these special cases. Here we prove analytically that the likelihoods calculated in the new framework are correct for all special cases with known analytical likelihood formula. Our results thus add substantial mathematical support for the overall coherence of the general framework.

A peculiar case of Morel-Lavelle lesion of upper limb.

Morel-Lavallee lesions (MLL) are post-traumatic, closed internal degloving injuries that can result in severe complications if not diagnosed early. It is conventionally seen in cases of the high energy injuries of the pelvis and lower limb. The accumulation of extravasated blood, secondary to fracture and soft tissue damage may cause internal degloving injury, skin necrosis, soft tissue damage and acute osteomyelitis. We report here the clinical and radiological features in a 32-year-old male referred from the emergency department of a tertiary hospital who had sustained high energy motor vehicle accident. On examination, there was a fluctuant, mobile, non-tender subcutaneous mass over the distal arm with suspicion of internal degloving injury. Plain radiographs showed no fractures. Ultrasound showed a fluid collection with the presence of septations and echogenic debris within the collection. Extravasation was noted between subcutaneous tissue layer and fascia at the posterolateral aspect of the arm. Wound debridement under general anaesthesia was carried out. Intraoperative findings reported a significant amount of thick serous fluid with necrotic debris. Unhealthy skin and fat layers were debrided. Underlying muscles were found to be healthy. The results of the intraoperative fluid culture and sensitivity showed no growth. Negative pressure vacuum dressing was carried out. After five cycles of vacuum dressing, the wound showed signs of healing with an improved range of motion of the elbow. Orthopaedic surgeons need to be vigilant of the possibility of MLL in the upper limb as a differential diagnosis in the management of high energy trauma.

The precarious use of charm needles susuk in treatment of low back pain by traditional medicine practitioners and its possible risk to patient safety.

A 68-year-old female presented with a 1-month history of lower back pain with right-sided radiculopathy and numbness. She was diagnosed with lumbar spondylosis and treated conservatively with analgesia and physiotherapy. Imaging showed multiple susuk, a metal alloy, in the lower back region and other regions of the body. The patient had undergone traditional medicine consultation 10 years earlier when the susuk was inserted in the lower back as talisman. The practice of the insertion of susuk is popular in rural East Malaysia and Indonesia. These foreign bodies act as possible causes of chronic inflammation and granuloma formation. In addition, the localised heighten peril upon imaging. This report suggests that the insertion of multiple susuk as talisman carries risk to safety of patients when imaging, and this practice complicates the management of musculoskeletal disorders.

A Minimal Model for the Latitudinal Diversity Gradient Suggests a Dominant Role for Ecological Limits.

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of Earth's most iconic biodiversity patterns and still one of the most debated. Explanations for the LDG are often categorized into three broad pathways in which the diversity gradient is created by (1) differential diversification rates, (2) differential carrying capacities (ecological limits), or (3) differential time to accumulate species across latitude. Support for these pathways has, however, been mostly verbally expressed. Here, we present a minimal model to clarify the essential assumptions of the three pathways and explore the sensitivity of diversity dynamics to these pathways. We find that an LDG arises most easily from a gradient in ecological limits compared with a gradient in the time for species accumulation or diversification rate in most modeled scenarios. Differential diversification rates create a stronger LDG than ecological limits only when speciation and dispersal rates are low, but then the predicted LDG seems weaker than the observed LDG. Moreover, range dynamics may reduce an LDG created by a gradient in diversification rates or time for species accumulation, but they cannot reduce an LDG induced by differential ecological limits. We conclude that our simple model provides a null prediction for the effectiveness of the three LDG pathways and can thus aid discussions about the causal mechanisms underlying the LDG or motivate more complex models to confirm or falsify our findings.

Transient local adaptation and source-sink dynamics in experimental populations experiencing spatially heterogeneous environments.

Local adaptation is determined by the strength of selection and the level of gene flow within heterogeneous landscapes. The presence of benign habitat can act as an evolutionary stepping stone for local adaptation to challenging environments by providing the necessary genetic variation. At the same time, migration load from benign habitats will hinder adaptation. In a community context, interspecific competition is expected to select against maladapted migrants, hence reducing migration load and facilitating adaptation. As the interplay between competition and spatial heterogeneity on the joint ecological and evolutionary dynamics of populations is poorly understood, we performed an evolutionary experiment using the herbivore spider mite Tetranychus urticae as a model. We studied the species's demography and local adaptation in a challenging environment that consisted of an initial sink (pepper plants) and/or a more benign environment (cucumber plants). Half of the experimental populations were exposed to a competitor, the congeneric T. ludeni. We show that while spider mites only adapted to the challenging pepper environment when it was spatially interspersed with benign cucumber habitat, this adaptation was only temporary and disappeared when the populations in the benign cucumber environment were expanding and spilling-over to the challenging pepper environment. Although the focal species outcompeted the competitor after about two months, a negative effect of competition on the focal species's performance persisted in the benign environment. Adaptation to challenging habitat in heterogeneous landscapes thus highly depends on demography and source-sink dynamics, but also on competitive interactions with other species, even if they are only present for a short time span.

Quantitative assessment of wound healing using high-frequency ultrasound image analysis.

PURPOSE: We aimed to develop a method for quantitative assessment of wound healing in ulcerated diabetic feet. METHODS: High-frequency ultrasound (HFU) images of 30 wounds were acquired in a controlled environment on post-debridement days 7, 14, 21, and 28. Meaningful features portraying changes in structure and intensity of echoes during healing were extracted from the images, their relevance and discriminatory power being verified by analysis of variance. Relative analysis of tissue healing was conducted by developing a features-based healing function, optimised using the pattern-search method. Its performance was investigated through leave-one-out cross-validation technique and reconfirmed using principal component analysis. RESULTS: The constructed healing function could depict tissue changes during healing with 87.8% accuracy. The first principal component derived from the extracted features demonstrated similar pattern to the constructed healing function, accounting for 86.3% of the data variance. CONCLUSION: The developed wound analysis technique could be a viable tool in quantitative assessment of diabetic foot ulcers during healing.

The Role of Within-Host Competition for Coexistence in Multiparasitoid-Host Systems.

Multiparasitism (females of multiple species parasitizing the same host) is a ubiquitous phenomenon in parasitoids, yet the role of within-host competition has been mostly ignored in multiparasitoid-host models. Here we study the effect of varying the degree of competition at different life stages: competition over oviposition sites (between-adult competition) and larval competition over resources within the host (within-host competition). We adapt a Nicholson-Bailey model to allow for varying levels of between-adult competition (varying the overlap in species distributions) and within-host competition (varying the number of offspring that can successfully emerge from a host). Surprisingly, while stronger between-adult competition reduces coexistence, stronger within-host competition promotes it. Asymmetric between-adult competition (a fecundity difference between the two species) reduces coexistence when compared to symmetric competition; this can be counteracted by asymmetric within-host competition (within-host competitive advantage of the lower-fecundity species), but only when within-host competition is strong and the correlation between the parasitoids' distributions is intermediate. We discuss our results in the context of the interaction between two parasitoid species, Nasonia vitripennis and Nasonia giraulti, which have strongly correlated distributions and high levels of multiparasitism in the field. We conclude that either low or asymmetric within-host competition is unlikely to explain their coexistence.