Family ideals in an era of low fertility.

Taking stock of individuals' perceived family ideals is particularly important in the current moment given unprecedented fertility declines and the diversification of households in advanced industrial societies. Study participants in urban China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the United States, Italy, Spain, and Norway were asked to evaluate vignettes describing families whose characteristics vary on ten dimensions. In contrast to previous studies that focused on a single dimension, such as fertility ideals or gender roles, this holistic vignette approach identifies the relative importance of each dimension. Multilevel regression analysis reveals both expected and unexpected findings. Parenthood remains a positive ideal, but the number of children does not matter once other family dimensions are considered, a potentially important finding in light of conventional wisdom regarding the two-children ideal. When evaluating families with at least one child, respondents tend to positively evaluate more traditional arrangements, including valuing marriage relative to cohabitation and, particularly, divorce. Also, in addition to financial resources, good communication between immediate and extended family members, as well as maintaining respect in the larger community, are highly salient attributes of an ideal family. Notwithstanding some important cross-national differences, egalitarian gender roles and avoiding work-family conflict are also valued positively. Overall, even as the study reveals some notable variations between societies, respondents across countries identify similar components of an ideal family.

Family Norms and Declining First-Marriage Rates: The Role of Sibship Position in the Japanese Marriage Market.

This study explores how changes in sibship composition associated with fertility decline may, in conjunction with entrenched family norms and expectations associated with specific sibship positions, impact marriage rates and further reduce fertility. We evaluate this possibility by focusing on Japan, a society characterized by half a century of below-replacement fertility and widely shared family norms that associate eldest (male) children with specific family obligations. Harmonic mean models allow us to quantify the contribution of changes in both marriage market composition with respect to sibship position and sibship-specific pairing propensities to the observed decline in marriage rates between 1980 and 2010. One important finding is that marriage propensities are lower for those pairings involving men and women whose sibship position signals a higher potential of caregiving obligations, especially only-children. Another is that changes in marriage propensities, rather than changing sibship composition, explain most of the observed decline in marriage rates. We also found that marriage propensity changes mitigate the impact of the changing sibship composition to some extent. However, the limited contribution of changing sibship composition to the decline in first-marriage rates provides little support for a self-reinforcing fertility decline via the relationship between changing sibship composition and marriage behavior.

Loneliness at Older Ages in the United States: Lonely Life Expectancy and the Role of Loneliness in Health Disparities.

We provide an empirical foundation for research on the demography of loneliness at older ages. First, we use published life tables and data from the U.S.-based Health and Retirement Study for the period 2008-2016 to calculate lonely life expectancy for Americans aged 55 or older. Using Sullivan's method, we demonstrate pronounced differences in lonely life expectancy by sex, race/ethnicity, and educational attainment that correspond to well-established patterns of stratification in other dimensions of well-being. Next, we estimate models that decompose observed sex, racial/ethnic, and educational differences in three key health outcomes into the part explained (in a statistical accounting sense) by loneliness and the part accounted for by other factors. We find little evidence of an important role for loneliness in understanding disparities in mortality and the onset of physical disability and cognitive impairment among Americans aged 55 or older, net of several established correlates of health disparities. These descriptive findings provide an empirical foundation for continued development of a demography of loneliness at older ages in response to the anticipated growth in scientific and policy emphasis on loneliness and the fundamental life changes that have accompanied the COVID-19 pandemic.

Defining Childlessness Among Middle-Aged and Older Americans: A Research Note.

Measuring childlessness is complicated by the increasing complexity of family structure. Using data from the 2014 Health and Retirement Study, in this research note we compared three definitions of childlessness: (1) respondent never fathered/gave birth to a child, (2) respondent had no children who were living and in contact, and (3) respondent and spouse/partner had no children or stepchildren who were living and in contact. Results showed that the prevalence of childlessness among Americans aged 55 or older ranged from 9.2% to 13.6% depending on which definition was used. The association between select individual characteristics (gender and marital status) and the likelihood of childlessness, as well as the association between childlessness and loneliness and living arrangements, also varied depending on how childlessness was defined. Therefore, how we define childlessness can affect our understanding of its prevalence, correlates, and relationships with well-being. Future research on childlessness should carefully consider the choice of definition and its implications for research and policy discussions.

Marriage intentions, desires, and pathways to later and less marriage in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the trend toward later and less marriage is particularly important in low-fertility societies where alternatives to marriage are limited and childbearing outside of marriage remains rare. OBJECTIVE: Our goal in this paper is to advance our understanding of the wide variety of explanations offered for later and less marriage in Japan by focusing explicitly on marriage intentions and desires. METHODS: Using two sources of nationally representative data, we describe the prevalence of positive, negative, and passive marriage intentions and desires among men and women who have never been married. We also examine socioeconomic differences in intentions, patterns of marriage desires across young adulthood, and relationships between marriage desires and outcomes. By linking three pathways to later and less marriage (rejection of marriage, failure to realize marriage desires, and unplanned drifting into singlehood) to specific theoretical frameworks, we generate indirect insights into explanations for later and less marriage. CONCLUSIONS: Although the large majority of unmarried men and women want to marry, less than half of respondents married across nine waves of the Japanese Life Course Panel Survey. Among those who remained unmarried, roughly two-thirds can be classified as 'drifting' into singlehood, about 30% as 'failing to realize marriage desires,' and no more than 5% as 'rejecting marriage.' CONTRIBUTION: By extending the small body of research on marriage intentions and desires, this study provides a framework for thinking broadly about explanations for later and less marriage in Japan and highlights the importance of both failure to realize marriage desires and unplanned drifting into singlehood.

Marriage Decline in Korea: Changing Composition of the Domestic Marriage Market and Growth in International Marriage.

Explanations for the substantial decline in rates of marriage in East Asian countries often emphasize the role of rapid educational expansion for women in reducing the desirability of marriages characterized by a strong gender-based division of labor. Focusing on South Korea, we consider a very different scenario in which changing educational composition of the marriage market reduces the demographic feasibility of such marriages. Analyses of 1% microsamples of the 1990 and 2010 Korean censuses show that changes in the availability of potential spouses accounted for part of the decline in marriage rates over a period of 20 years (1985-1989 to 2005-2009) for highly educated women and less-educated men. We also show that growth in international marriages played a role in preventing an even more dramatic decline in marriage among low-educated men. These findings support the general relevance of marriage market mismatches in gender-inegalitarian societies and highlight the declining feasibility of marriage for low-educated men in such contexts. Findings also hint at important implications for inequality in a society such as Korea, where marriage remains a symbol of social success and is closely related to women's economic well-being and men's health and subjective well-being.

Unemployment, Nonstandard Employment, and Fertility: Insights From Japan's "Lost 20 Years".

In this study, we examine relationships of unemployment and nonstandard employment with fertility. We focus on Japan, a country characterized by a prolonged economic downturn, significant increases in both unemployment and nonstandard employment, a strong link between marriage and childbearing, and pronounced gender differences in economic roles and opportunities. Analyses of retrospective employment, marriage, and fertility data for the period 1990-2006 indicate that changing employment circumstances for men are associated with lower levels of marriage, while changes in women's employment are associated with higher levels of marital fertility. The latter association outweighs the former, and results of counterfactual standardization analyses indicate that Japan's total fertility rate would have been 10 % to 20 % lower than the observed rate after 1995 if aggregate- and individual-level employment conditions had remained unchanged from the 1980s. We discuss the implications of these results in light of ongoing policy efforts to promote family formation and research on temporal and regional variation in men's and women's roles within the family.

Living alone in Japan: Relationships with happiness and health.

BACKGROUND: One-person households are the most common type of household in Japan, but relatively little is known about the causes and potential consequences of the rise in solo living in young adulthood. OBJECTIVE: I address two questions: What accounts for the rise in one-person households in young adulthood? How is solo living in young adulthood related to well-being? METHODS: I use census data to evaluate how much of the growth in one-person households at ages 20-39 between 1985 and 2010 is explained by change in marital behavior and how much is explained by other factors. I then use data from the 2000-2010 rounds of the Japanese General Social Survey to examine whether and why men and women living alone differ from those living with others in terms of happiness and self-rated health. RESULTS: Results of the first set of analyses indicate that changes in marital behavior explain all of the increase in one-person households for men and three-fourths of the increase for women. Results of the second set of analyses indicate that those living alone are significantly less happy than those living with others, whereas the two groups do not differ with respect to self-rated health. The observed differences in happiness are not explained by differences in subjective economic well-being or social integration. CONCLUSIONS: The relatively small magnitude of estimated differences in happiness and health provides little evidence to suggest that the projected rise in one-person households is likely to play a significant role in contributing to lower levels of well-being among young adults in Japan.

Educational differences in early childbearing: A cross-national comparative study.

BACKGROUND: Recent research on fertility in industrialized countries focuses primarily on delayed childbearing, despite the facts that large numbers of women continue to enter parenthood at relatively young ages and that early childbearing has been linked to economic disadvantage. OBJECTIVE: This cross-national comparative study describes relationships between women's educational attainment and young age at first birth and evaluates the extent to which these differences have changed over time for women born 1955-1981. METHODS: Defining 'early' childbearing as the age by which 20% of first births have occurred to women in a given birth cohort and country, we describe differences in early childbearing by educational attainment across three cohorts of women in 20 countries. RESULTS: We find a strong negative educational gradient in early childbearing across all 20 countries and some evidence of an increase in the relative prevalence of early childbearing among the least-educated women. In 10 countries, the relative prevalence of early childbearing among women with low education is significantly higher for one or both of the more recent birth cohorts compared to the earliest cohort. However, many countries show no significant change, and in one country (Poland) there is modest evidence of a decreasing educational gap. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence that educational differences in early childbearing have grown in some countries is generally consistent with the notion of family bifurcation and 'diverging destinies' by socioeconomic status. However, the pattern is not universal and future work should examine the various factors that shape these patterns, including the role of public policies.

Living Arrangements, Intergenerational Support, and Married Women's Subjective Well-Being.

Theory suggests that relationships between intergenerational coresidence and married women's subjective well-being may be either positive or negative. We extend previous research on this question in two ways: by focusing also on geographical proximity to parents(-in-law) and by examining differences in married women's well-being both between and within different types of living arrangements. Using data from a nationally representative survey of adults in Japan, we found no differences in married women's subjective well-being between living arrangements, but observed significant differences within living arrangements depending on married women's position in the household and the direction of intergenerational support transfers. Our results suggest that comparisons across living arrangements may be complicated by within-group associations with well-being and that attention to married women's position in the household and the direction of intergenerational transfers is essential for understanding how married women in Japan experience different living arrangements.

Retirement Type and Cognitive Functioning in Japan.

OBJECTIVES: A growing literature examines the effect of retirement on cognitive function, but pays little attention to how this relationship may depend upon the nature of retirement. Of particular importance is the growing prevalence of gradual retirement characterized by continued employment-either with a new employer or with the same employer-after retiring from a career job. METHODS: We use data from men and women aged 50 or older in the Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement to examine the effects of full retirement, partial retirement with the same employer, and partial retirement with a new employer on cognitive function. Our analyses consider the moderating role of career job complexity and exploit distinctive features of the Japanese public pension and mandatory retirement systems to estimate the causal effect of retirement type on cognition. RESULTS: Results indicate that partial retirement with the same employer has a significant and adverse effect on cognitive function (relative to those not yet retired). In contrast, those who experienced either full retirement or partial retirement with a new employer were, on average, no different from those still in their career job. Partial retirement with a new employer has a beneficial effect on cognition among those who had a high-complexity career job. DISCUSSION: Results are consistent with the idea that novel work exposures and experiences have a beneficial effect on cognition. They also suggest that ongoing policy efforts to promote partial retirement with the same employer may have unexpected adverse implications for cognitive health.

Later-Life Living Arrangements of Americans With and Without Children: A Life Table Approach.

OBJECTIVES: This study describes living arrangement-specific life expectancy for older Americans with and without children, by sex and race/ethnicity. METHOD: We use life tables from the Human Mortality Database and data from the Health and Retirement Study over a 17-year period (2000-2016) to calculate living arrangement-specific life expectancy at age 65 using Sullivan's method. Results describe the lives of older Americans aged 65 and older with and without children in terms of the number of expected years of life in different living arrangements. RESULTS: With the exception of Hispanic men, older Americans without children spend over half of their remaining life living alone. Among the childless, it is White women and Black men who spend the largest percent of remaining life living alone (65% and 57%, respectively). Relative to parents, childless older Americans have an overall life expectancy at age 65 that is 1 year lower and spend 5-6 years more living alone and fewer years living with a spouse (8 years less for men and 5 years less for women). Childless older Americans spend more time in nursing homes, but average expected duration in this living arrangement is short and differences between those with and without children are small. DISCUSSION: This descriptive analysis demonstrates the fundamental ways in which children shape the lives of older Americans by showing that later-life living arrangements of childless Americans differ markedly from their counterparts with children. These results provide a valuable empirical foundation for broader efforts to understand relationships between childlessness, living arrangements, and well-being at older ages.

School performance and mortality: The mediating role of educational attainment and work and family trajectories across the life course.

Evidence of a strong negative correlation between adolescent academic performance and mortality points to the importance of not only cognitive, but also non-cognitive, skills in predicting survival. We integrated two bodies of research to evaluate expectations regarding the role of educational attainment and trajectories of employment and marriage experience in mediating relationships between high school class rank and longevity. In particular, we used data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (n = 9,232) to fit parametric mortality models from age 55 to age 77. Multiple mediator models allowed for quantification of the degree to which the association between high school class rank and mortality is mediated by life trajectories and educational attainment. Our results show that high school class rank is a statistically significant and substantively meaningful predictor of survival beyond age 55 and that this relationship is partially, but not fully, mediated by trajectories of employment and marriage experience across the life course. Higher educational attainment also mediates a substantial part of the relationship, but to varying degrees for men and women.

A New Look at the Living Arrangements of Older Americans Using Multistate Life Tables.

OBJECTIVES: We extend existing research on the living arrangements of older Americans by focusing on geographic proximity to children, examining transitions in living arrangements across older ages, and describing differences by both race/ethnicity and educational attainment. METHOD: We use data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) over a period of 10 years (2000-2010) to construct multistate life tables. These analyses allow us to describe the lives of older Americans between ages 65 and 90 in terms of the number of expected years of life in different living arrangements, reflecting both mortality and living arrangement transitions. RESULTS: Americans spend a substantial proportion of later life living near, but not with, adult children. There is a good deal of change in living arrangements at older ages and living arrangement-specific life expectancy differs markedly by race/ethnicity and educational attainment. However, overall life expectancy is not strongly related to living arrangements at age 65. DISCUSSION: Multistate life tables, constructed separately by sex, race/ethnicity, and educational attainment, provide a comprehensive description of sociodemographic differences in living arrangements across older ages in the United States. We discuss the potential implications of these differences for access to support and the exacerbation or mitigation of inequalities at older ages.

Population Aging and Health Trajectories at Older Ages.

OBJECTIVE: This study examines relationships between municipal age structure and two types of self-rated health: general (SRH) and comparison with similar-aged peers (C-SRH). METHODS: Using a national sample of almost 5,000 Japanese older adults over two decades, we employ hierarchical growth curve models to estimate health trajectories. For municipal age structure, we consider both the relative prevalence of elderly adults in the local population and the pace of aging over time. RESULTS: Living in the oldest municipalities was generally associated with worse health, particularly between the ages of 70 and 80 years. For SRH, the speed of municipal population aging was also independently associated with worse health. For C-SRH, worse health in older areas was partially explained by less favorable economic conditions in those municipalities. Results also suggest that higher levels of employment and social integration among older adults living in the oldest municipalities operate in the opposite direction. That is, these attributes partially "protect" individuals from other factors that contribute to worse health. DISCUSSION: Relative differences in municipal age structure and the pace of population aging are largely unexplored and potentially important correlates of older adult health. This line of research is increasingly salient in a world with substantial and growing regional variation in population aging.

Work-family conflict and retirement preferences.

OBJECTIVES: This study investigates relationships between retirement preferences and perceived levels of work-family conflict. METHODS: Using the large sample of 52-54-year-old respondents to the 1992 Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, we estimated multinomial logistic regression models of preferences for partial and full retirement within the next 10 years. We examined the association between retirement preferences and perceived work-family conflict, evaluated the extent to which work-family conflict was a mediating mechanism between stressful work and family circumstances and preferences to retire, and explored potential gender differences in the association between work-family conflict and preferring retirement. RESULTS: Work-family conflict was positively related to preferences for both full and partial retirement. Yet work-family conflict did not appear to mediate relationships between stressful work and family environments and retirement preferences, nor did significant gender differences emerge in this association. DISCUSSION: Our analyses provide the first direct evidence of the role played by work-family conflict in the early stages of the retirement process, although we were not able to identify the sources of conflict underlying this relationship. Identifying the sources of this conflict and the psychological mechanisms linking work-family conflict to retirement preferences is an important task for future researchers.

Single Motherhood and Children's Health and School Performance in Japan.

This paper examines the well-being of Japanese children in single-mother families relative to children living with both parents. Using data from three rounds of the National Survey of Households with Children, I first demonstrate that single mothers report their children to have significantly worse health and lower academic performance. I then estimate regression models to assess the extent to which these differences reflect single mothers' economic disadvantage, difficult work circumstances, and worse health and experience of stressful life events. Results indicate that economic disadvantage is particularly important for understanding lower levels of well-being among the children of single mothers. I conclude by discussing potential implications of these results for linkages between family behavior and inequality in Japan and for the intergenerational transmission of disadvantage.

Marriage and Women's Health in Japan.

In this study, we evaluate alternative hypotheses about the potentially harmful or beneficial effects of marriage on women's health and examine the factors underlying observed relationships between marriage and health. Using data from the Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers, an annual survey of a nationally representative sample of Japanese women (N = 1,610), our study advances current scholarship on marriage and health by focusing on a context characterized by a high degree of gender inequality. Results from models employing different approaches to the potential role of health-related selection into marriage consistently indicate that marriage is associated with better mental and physical health and that the lower levels of employment among married women play an important role in explaining this relationship. Our findings highlight the importance of considering how the specific pathways linking marriage and health may vary across societies with different gender and institutional contexts.

Gender Equity, Opportunity Costs of Parenthood, and Educational Differences in Unintended First Births: Insights from Japan.

We examine educational differences in the intendedness of first births in Japan using data from a nationally representative survey of married women (N = 2,373). We begin by describing plausible scenarios for a negative, null, and positive educational gradient in unintended first births. In contrast to well-established results from the U.S., we find evidence of a positive educational gradient in Japan. Net of basic demographic controls, university graduates are more likely than less-educated women to report first births as unintended. This pattern is consistent with a scenario emphasizing the high opportunity costs of motherhood in countries such as Japan where growing opportunities for women in employment and other domains of public life have not been accompanied by changes in the highly asymmetric roles of men and women within the family. We discuss potential implications of this suggestive finding for other low-fertility settings.

Marriage and Family in East Asia: Continuity and Change.

Trends toward later and less marriage and childbearing in East Asia have been even more pronounced than in the West. At the same time, many other features of East Asian families have changed very little. We review recent research on trends in a wide range of family behaviors in China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. We also draw upon a range of theoretical frameworks to argue that trends in marriage and fertility reflect tension between rapid social and economic change and limited change in family expectations and obligations. We discuss how this tension may be contributing to growing socioeconomic differences in patterns of family formation. This focus on East Asia extends research on the second demographic transition in the West by describing how rapid decline in marriage and fertility rates can occur in the absence of major changes in family attitudes or rising individualism.