Life-history stage and the population genetics of the tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus at a fine spatial scale.

As a widespread vector of disease with an expanding range, the mosquito Aedes albopictus Skuse (Diptera: Culicidae) is a high priority for research and management. A. albopictus has a complex life history with aquatic egg, larval and pupal stages, and a terrestrial adult stage. This requires targeted management strategies for each life stage, coordinated across time and space. Population genetics can aid in A. albopictus control by evaluating patterns of genetic diversity and dispersal. However, how life stage impacts population genetic characteristics is unknown. We examined whether patterns of A. albopictus genetic diversity and differentiation changed with life stage at a spatial scale relevant to management efforts. We first conducted a literature review of field-caught A. albopictus population genetic papers and identified 101 peer-reviewed publications, none of which compared results between life stages. Our study uniquely examines population genomic patterns of egg and adult A. albopictus at five sites in Wake County, North Carolina, USA, using 8425 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We found that the level of genetic diversity and connectivity between sites varied between adults and eggs. This warrants further study and is critical for research aimed at informing local management.

Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction.

BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. METHODS: We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. RESULTS: Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. CONCLUSIONS: Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases).

Identification of candidate loci for adaptive phenotypic plasticity in natural populations of spadefoot toads.

Phenotypic plasticity allows organisms to alter their phenotype in direct response to changes in the environment. Despite growing recognition of plasticity's role in ecology and evolution, few studies have probed plasticity's molecular bases-especially using natural populations. We investigated the genetic basis of phenotypic plasticity in natural populations of spadefoot toads (Spea multiplicata). Spea tadpoles normally develop into an "omnivore" morph that is favored in long-lasting, low-density ponds. However, if tadpoles consume freshwater shrimp or other tadpoles, they can alternatively develop (via plasticity) into a "carnivore" morph that is favored in ephemeral, high-density ponds. By combining natural variation in pond ecology and morph production with population genetic approaches, we identified candidate loci associated with each morph (carnivores vs. omnivores) and loci associated with adaptive phenotypic plasticity (adaptive vs. maladaptive morph choice). Our candidate morph loci mapped to two genes, whereas our candidate plasticity loci mapped to 14 genes. In both cases, the identified genes tended to have functions related to their putative role in spadefoot tadpole biology. Our results thereby form the basis for future studies into the molecular mechanisms that mediate plasticity in spadefoots. More generally, these results illustrate how diverse loci might mediate adaptive plasticity.

A Statewide Survey of Container Aedes Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in North Carolina, 2016: A Multiagency Surveillance Response to Zika Using Ovitraps.

Native and invasive container-inhabiting Aedes mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) play important roles in the transmission of endemic and traveler-introduced arboviruses in the United States. In response to the emergence of Zika virus into the Americas, we surveyed the distribution of container Aedes spp. of public health importance within North Carolina during 2016 using ovitraps. A seasonal survey was conducted in 18 counties from the mountains to the coast to identify species incriminated in the transmission of chikungunya, dengue, La Crosse, yellow fever, and Zika viruses. Multiple local, state, and federal agencies participated in the study and submitted more than 3,600 ovistrips. Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (81.4%, n = 54,458) was the most common and widespread species found in this survey, followed by Aedes triseriatus (Say) (10.7%, n = 7,169) and Aedes japonicus (Theobald) (7.9%, n = 5,262). We did not find Aedes aegypti and rarely found Aedes hendersoni (Cockerell). We assessed broad-scale climatic and other factors and determined that longitude, elevation, rainfall, and temperature had significant effects on explaining the variation in presence, abundance, and phenology of container Aedes in North Carolina. However, much of the variation in these outcomes was not explained at this coarse scale and may benefit from finer-scale analyses. These efforts represent the largest ovitrap survey ever conducted in the state.