Symptom remission at 12-weeks strongly predicts long-term recovery from the first episode of psychosis.

BACKGROUND: To determine the baseline individual characteristics that predicted symptom recovery and functional recovery at 10-years following the first episode of psychosis. METHODS: AESOP-10 is a 10-year follow up of an epidemiological, naturalistic population-based cohort of individuals recruited at the time of their first episode of psychosis in two areas in the UK (South East London and Nottingham). Detailed information on demographic, clinical, and social factors was examined to identify which factors predicted symptom and functional remission and recovery over 10-year follow-up. The study included 557 individuals with a first episode psychosis. The main study outcomes were symptom recovery and functional recovery at 10-year follow-up. RESULTS: At 10 years, 46.2% (n = 140 of 303) of patients achieved symptom recovery and 40.9% (n = 117) achieved functional recovery. The strongest predictor of symptom recovery at 10 years was symptom remission at 12 weeks (adj OR 4.47; CI 2.60-7.67); followed by a diagnosis of depression with psychotic symptoms (adj OR 2.68; CI 1.02-7.05). Symptom remission at 12 weeks was also a strong predictor of functional recovery at 10 years (adj OR 2.75; CI 1.23-6.11), together with being from Nottingham study centre (adj OR 3.23; CI 1.25-8.30) and having a diagnosis of mania (adj OR 8.17; CI 1.61-41.42). CONCLUSIONS: Symptom remission at 12 weeks is an important predictor of both symptom and functional recovery at 10 years, with implications for illness management. The concepts of clinical and functional recovery overlap but should be considered separately.

Psychosis as a transdiagnostic and extended phenotype in the general population.

A large body of research indicates that weak expressions of positive psychotic symptoms ("psychotic experiences") can be measured in the general population, and likely represent the behavioural manifestation of distributed multifactorial (genetic and non-genetic) risk for psychosis. Psychotic experiences are a transdiagnostic phenomenon: the majority of individuals with these experiences have a diagnosis of non-psychotic disorder, particularly common mental disorder, in which psychotic experiences predict greater illness severity and poorer treatment response. Some of the people with common mental disorder and psychotic experiences will present to mental health services meeting criteria for "clinical high risk". Treatment of the transdiagnostic dimension of psychosis in individuals with common mental disorder who meet "clinical high risk" criteria thus may improve outcome (which cannot be interpreted as prevention of "schizophrenia"). Subthreshold psychotic experiences are transitory in about 80% of individuals, while around 20% go on to develop persistent psychotic experiences and 7% a psychotic disorder, with an annual transition rate of 0.5-1%. Persistence is associated, on the one hand, with environmental exposures, particularly childhood trauma, and, on the other, with network-type dynamic interactions between psychotic experiences themselves (e.g., interactions between hallucinatory experiences and delusional ideation) and between symptom dimensions (e.g., interactions between affective symptoms and psychotic experiences, or interactions between subthreshold negative symptoms and psychotic experiences). The study of psychotic experiences is helping to elucidate the mechanisms by which environmental and genetic influences shape the transdiagnostic expression of psychosis proneness, that is mostly transitory but may first become persistent over time and eventually give rise to transition to a psychotic disorder.