Digital contact tracing and network theory to stop the spread of COVID-19 using big-data on human mobility geolocalization.

The spread of COVID-19 caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus has become a worldwide problem with devastating consequences. Here, we implement a comprehensive contact tracing and network analysis to find an optimized quarantine protocol to dismantle the chain of transmission of coronavirus with minimal disruptions to society. We track billions of anonymized GPS human mobility datapoints to monitor the evolution of the contact network of disease transmission before and after mass quarantines. As a consequence of the lockdowns, people's mobility decreases by 53%, which results in a drastic disintegration of the transmission network by 90%. However, this disintegration did not halt the spreading of the disease. Our analysis indicates that superspreading k-core structures persist in the transmission network to prolong the pandemic. Once the k-cores are identified, an optimized strategy to break the chain of transmission is to quarantine a minimal number of 'weak links' with high betweenness centrality connecting the large k-cores.

Fast algorithm to identify minimal patterns of synchrony through fibration symmetries in large directed networks.

Recent studies have revealed the interplay between the structure of network circuits with fibration symmetries and the functionality of biological networks within which they have been identified. The presence of these symmetries in complex networks predicts the phenomenon of cluster synchronization, which produces patterns of a synchronized group of nodes. Here, we present a fast, and memory efficient, algorithm to identify fibration symmetries in networks. The algorithm is particularly suitable for large networks since it has a runtime of complexity O(Mlog⁡N) and requires O(M+N) of memory resources, where N and M are the number of nodes and edges in the network, respectively. The algorithm is a modification of the so-called refinement paradigm to identify circuits that are symmetrical to information flow (i.e., fibers) by finding the coarsest refinement partition over the network. Finally, we show that the algorithm provides an optimal procedure for identifying fibers, overcoming current approaches used in the literature.

Circuits with broken fibration symmetries perform core logic computations in biological networks.

We show that logic computational circuits in gene regulatory networks arise from a fibration symmetry breaking in the network structure. From this idea we implement a constructive procedure that reveals a hierarchy of genetic circuits, ubiquitous across species, that are surprising analogues to the emblematic circuits of solid-state electronics: starting from the transistor and progressing to ring oscillators, current-mirror circuits to toggle switches and flip-flops. These canonical variants serve fundamental operations of synchronization and clocks (in their symmetric states) and memory storage (in their broken symmetry states). These conclusions introduce a theoretically principled strategy to search for computational building blocks in biological networks, and present a systematic route to design synthetic biological circuits.

The price of a vote: Diseconomy in proportional elections.

The increasing cost of electoral campaigns raises the need for effective campaign planning and a precise understanding of the return of such investment. Interestingly, despite the strong impact of elections on our daily lives, how this investment is translated into votes is still unknown. By performing data analysis and modeling, we show that top candidates spend more money per vote than the less successful and poorer candidates, a relation that discloses a diseconomy of scale. We demonstrate that such electoral diseconomy arises from the competition between candidates due to inefficient campaign expenditure. Our approach succeeds in two important tests. First, it reveals that the statistical pattern in the vote distribution of candidates can be explained in terms of the independently conceived, but similarly skewed distribution of money campaign. Second, using a heuristic argument, we are able to explain the observed turnout percentage for a given election of approximately 63% in average. This result is in good agreement with the average turnout rate obtained from real data. Due to its generality, we expect that our approach can be applied to a wide range of problems concerning the adoption process in marketing campaigns.

Persistence in eye movement during visual search.

As any cognitive task, visual search involves a number of underlying processes that cannot be directly observed and measured. In this way, the movement of the eyes certainly represents the most explicit and closest connection we can get to the inner mechanisms governing this cognitive activity. Here we show that the process of eye movement during visual search, consisting of sequences of fixations intercalated by saccades, exhibits distinctive persistent behaviors. Initially, by focusing on saccadic directions and intersaccadic angles, we disclose that the probability distributions of these measures show a clear preference of participants towards a reading-like mechanism (geometrical persistence), whose features and potential advantages for searching/foraging are discussed. We then perform a Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) over the time series of jump magnitudes in the eye trajectory and find that it exhibits a typical multifractal behavior arising from the sequential combination of saccades and fixations. By inspecting the time series composed of only fixational movements, our results reveal instead a monofractal behavior with a Hurst exponent , which indicates the presence of long-range power-law positive correlations (statistical persistence). We expect that our methodological approach can be adopted as a way to understand persistence and strategy-planning during visual search.

How does public opinion become extreme?

We investigate the emergence of extreme opinion trends in society by employing statistical physics modeling and analysis on polls that inquire about a wide range of issues such as religion, economics, politics, abortion, extramarital sex, books, movies, and electoral vote. The surveys lay out a clear indicator of the rise of extreme views. The precursor is a nonlinear relation between the fraction of individuals holding a certain extreme view and the fraction of individuals that includes also moderates, e.g., in politics, those who are "very conservative" versus "moderate to very conservative" ones. We propose an activation model of opinion dynamics with interaction rules based on the existence of individual "stubbornness" that mimics empirical observations. According to our modeling, the onset of nonlinearity can be associated to an abrupt bootstrap-percolation transition with cascades of extreme views through society. Therefore, it represents an early-warning signal to forecast the transition from moderate to extreme views. Moreover, by means of a phase diagram we can classify societies according to the percolative regime they belong to, in terms of critical fractions of extremists and people's ties.

Origins of power-law degree distribution in the heterogeneity of human activity in social networks.

The probability distribution of number of ties of an individual in a social network follows a scale-free power-law. However, how this distribution arises has not been conclusively demonstrated in direct analyses of people's actions in social networks. Here, we perform a causal inference analysis and find an underlying cause for this phenomenon. Our analysis indicates that heavy-tailed degree distribution is causally determined by similarly skewed distribution of human activity. Specifically, the degree of an individual is entirely random - following a "maximum entropy attachment" model - except for its mean value which depends deterministically on the volume of the users' activity. This relation cannot be explained by interactive models, like preferential attachment, since the observed actions are not likely to be caused by interactions with other people.

Nonlocal product rules for percolation.

Despite original claims of a first-order transition in the product rule model proposed by Achlioptas et al. [Science 323, 1453 (2009)], recent studies indicate that this percolation model, in fact, displays a continuous transition. The distinctive scaling properties of the model at criticality, however, strongly suggest that it should belong to a different universality class than ordinary percolation. Here we introduce a generalization of the product rule that reveals the effect of nonlocality on the critical behavior of the percolation process. Precisely, pairs of unoccupied bonds are chosen according to a probability that decays as a power law of their Manhattan distance, and only that bond connecting clusters whose product of their sizes is the smallest becomes occupied. Interestingly, our results for two-dimensional lattices at criticality shows that the power-law exponent of the product rule has a significant influence on the finite-size scaling exponents for the spanning cluster, the conducting backbone, and the cutting bonds of the system. In all three cases, we observe a clear transition from ordinary to (nonlocal) explosive percolation exponents.

Statistical patterns of visual search for hidden objects.

The movement of the eyes has been the subject of intensive research as a way to elucidate inner mechanisms of cognitive processes. A cognitive task that is rather frequent in our daily life is the visual search for hidden objects. Here we investigate through eye-tracking experiments the statistical properties associated with the search of target images embedded in a landscape of distractors. Specifically, our results show that the twofold process of eye movement, composed of sequences of fixations (small steps) intercalated by saccades (longer jumps), displays characteristic statistical signatures. While the saccadic jumps follow a log-normal distribution of distances, which is typical of multiplicative processes, the lengths of the smaller steps in the fixation trajectories are consistent with a power-law distribution. Moreover, the present analysis reveals a clear transition between a directional serial search to an isotropic random movement as the difficulty level of the searching task is increased.