North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply.

Quantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of climate change1-3. Although inter-model agreement is high for large-scale temperature signals, dynamical changes in atmospheric circulation are very uncertain4. This leads to low confidence in regional projections, especially for precipitation, over the coming decades5,6. The chaotic nature of the climate system7-9 may also mean that signal uncertainties are largely irreducible. However, climate projections are difficult to verify until further observations become available. Here we assess retrospective climate model predictions of the past six decades and show that decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate are highly predictable, despite a lack of agreement between individual model simulations and the poor predictive ability of raw model outputs. Crucially, current models underestimate the predictable signal (the predictable fraction of the total variability) of the North Atlantic Oscillation (the leading mode of variability in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation) by an order of magnitude. Consequently, compared to perfect models, 100 times as many ensemble members are needed in current models to extract this signal, and its effects on the climate are underestimated relative to other factors. To address these limitations, we implement a two-stage post-processing technique. We first adjust the variance of the ensemble-mean North Atlantic Oscillation forecast to match the observed variance of the predictable signal. We then select and use only the ensemble members with a North Atlantic Oscillation sufficiently close to the variance-adjusted ensemble-mean forecast North Atlantic Oscillation. This approach greatly improves decadal predictions of winter climate for Europe and eastern North America. Predictions of Atlantic multidecadal variability are also improved, suggesting that the North Atlantic Oscillation is not driven solely by Atlantic multidecadal variability. Our results highlight the need to understand why the signal-to-noise ratio is too small in current climate models10, and the extent to which correcting this model error would reduce uncertainties in regional climate change projections on timescales beyond a decade.

Assessing optimal frequency for image acquisition in computer vision systems developed to monitor feeding behavior of group-housed Holstein heifers.

Computer vision systems have emerged as a potential tool to monitor the behavior of livestock animals. Such high-throughput systems can generate massive redundant data sets for training and inference, which can lead to higher computational and economic costs. The objectives of this study were (1) to develop a computer vision system to individually monitor detailed feeding behaviors of group-housed dairy heifers, and (2) to determine the optimal frequency of image acquisition to perform inference with minimal effect on feeding behavior prediction quality. Eight Holstein heifers (96 ± 6 d old) were housed in a group and a total of 25,214 images (1 image every second) were acquired using 1 RGB camera. A total of 2,209 images were selected and each animal in the image was labeled with its respective identification (1-8). The label was annotated only on animals that were at the feed bunk (head through the feed rail). From the labeled images, 1,392 were randomly selected to train a deep learning algorithm for object detection with YOLOv3 ("You Only Look Once" version 3) and 154 images were used for validation. An independent data set (testing set = 663 out of the 2,209 images) was used to test the algorithm. The average accuracy for identifying individual animals in the testing set was 96.0%, and for each individual heifer from 1 to 8 the accuracy was 99.2, 99.6, 99.2, 99.6, 99.6, 99.2, 99.4, and 99.6%, respectively. After identifying the animals at the feed bunk, we computed the following feeding behavior parameters: number of visits (NV), mean visit duration (MVD), mean interval between visits (MIBV), and feeding time (FT) for each heifer using a data set composed by 8,883 sequential images (1 image every second) from 4 time points. The coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.39, 0.78, 0.48, and 0.99, and the root mean square error (RMSE) were 12.3 (count), 0.78, 0.63, and 0.31 min for NV, MVD, MIBV, and FT, respectively, considering 1 image every second. When we moved from 1 image per second to 1 image every 5 (MIBV) or 10 (NV, MDV, and FT) s, the R2 observed were 0.55 (NV), 0.74 (MVD), 0.70 (MIBV), and 0.99 (FT); and the RMSE were 2.27 (NV, count), 0.38 min (MVD), 0.22 min (MIBV), and 0.44 min (FT). Our results indicate that computer vision systems can be used to individually identify group-housed Holstein heifers (overall accuracy = 99.4%). Based on individual identification, feeding behavior such as MVD, MIBV, and FT can be monitored with reasonable accuracy and precision. Regardless of the frequency for optimal image acquisition, our results suggested that longer time intervals of image acquisition would reduce data collecting and model inference while maintaining adequate predictive performance. However, we did not find an optimal time interval for all feeding behavior; instead, the optimal frequency of image acquisition is phenotype-specific. Overall, the best R2 and RMSE for NV, MDV, and FT were achieved using 1 image every 10 s, and for MIBV it was achieved using 1 image every 5 s, and in both cases model inference and data storage could be drastically reduced.

Testing a Paul trap through determining the evaporation rate of levitated single semi-volatile organic droplets.

Rigorous knowledge of the optical fingerprint of droplets is imperative for the understanding of complex aerosol processes. Here, a Paul trap is operated to store single semi-volatile organic droplets in air. The droplets are illuminated with a green laser and the elastic scattering is collected on a CMOS camera. The setup provides excellent performance in terms of confinement and stability, allowing us to detect size changes of the order of few nanometres. The stability also allows us to measure vapour pressures with remarkable reproducibility. This approach supplies a robust method for the optical interrogation in the sub-micron range.

MuSCA: a multi-scale source-sink carbon allocation model to explore carbon allocation in plants. An application to static apple tree structures.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Carbon allocation in plants is usually represented at a topological scale, specific to each model. This makes the results obtained with different models, and the impact of their scales of representation, difficult to compare. In this study, we developed a multi-scale carbon allocation model (MuSCA) that allows the use of different, user-defined, topological scales of a plant, and assessment of the impact of each spatial scale on simulated results and computation time. METHODS: Model multi-scale consistency and behaviour were tested on three realistic apple tree structures. Carbon allocation was computed at five scales, spanning from the metamer (the finest scale, used as a reference) up to first-order branches, and for different values of a sap friction coefficient. Fruit dry mass increments were compared across spatial scales and with field data. KEY RESULTS: The model was able to represent effects of competition for carbon assimilates on fruit growth. Intermediate friction parameter values provided results that best fitted field data. Fruit growth simulated at the metamer scale differed of ~1 % in respect to results obtained at growth unit scale and up to 60 % in respect to first order branch and fruiting unit scales. Generally, the coarser the spatial scale the more predicted fruit growth diverged from the reference. Coherence in fruit growth across scales was also differentially impacted, depending on the tree structure considered. Decreasing the topological resolution reduced computation time by up to four orders of magnitude. CONCLUSIONS: MuSCA revealed that the topological scale has a major influence on the simulation of carbon allocation. This suggests that the scale should be a factor that is carefully evaluated when using a carbon allocation model, or when comparing results produced by different models. Finally, with MuSCA, trade-off between computation time and prediction accuracy can be evaluated by changing topological scales.

Assessment of alternative herbicides for residential sewer root treatment and their effects on downstream treatment plant nitrification.

The conveyance of wastewater in sewer pipes can be severely limited by the growth of plant roots, which can be controlled with herbicides. However, adding herbicides in sewer lines may affect downstream biological wastewater treatment processes. The effects of three herbicides (Dithiopyr, Penoxsulam, and Triclopyr) on the mortality of cottonwood tree roots and on downstream biological nitrification were determined. The results showed that Triclopyr achieved the highest root mortality (96%) followed by Penoxsulam (77%) and Dithiopyr (75%). At concentrations used at the point of application in sewer pipes, all herbicides caused nitrification inhibition and reduction in organic carbon removal in activated sludge. However, no inhibition was observed at the more diluted concentrations approximately equal to levels that may reach the wastewater treatment facility. Overall, Triclopyr appears to be the best performing herbicide with the highest root kill.

Simvastatin modulates ß-catenin/MDR1 expression on spheres derived from CF41.Mg canine mammary carcinoma cells.

The presence of cancer stem-like cells (CSC) within canine mammary tumors, may explain partly local recurrence and spreading, since their ability to resist conventional antitumor treatments as chemo and radiotherapy. It has been recently described that simvastatin - a drug that inhibits synthesis of cholesterol - attenuates the proliferation of canine mammary CSC derived from CF41.Mg canine mammary carcinoma cells, promoting their chemosensitizing and apoptosis. The canonical Wnt/ß-catenin pathway is usually activated at CSC and up-regulates multidrug resistance protein 1 (MDR1), triggering chemoresistance. In the present study, we analyze the effect of simvastatin on ß-catenin/MDR1 expression in spheres obtained from the CF41.Mg cell line as a model of CSC. Simvastatin increased phosphorylation of ß-catenin without affecting its total expression. Moreover, MDR1 expression was decreased by simvastatin. These results suggest that simvastatin would facilitate the degradation of ß-catenin, decreasing MDR1 expression and contributing to the chemosensitizing effects of the statin on canine mammary CSC.

Designing local solutions for emptying pit latrines in low-income urban settlements (Malawi).

A lack of effective options in local technology poses challenges when onsite household sanitation facilities are eventually filled to capacity in unplanned settlement areas within Mzuzu City, located in northern Malawi. Vacuum trucks currently dominate the market but focus on emptying septic tanks in the more easily accessible planned settlement areas, rather than servicing the pit latrines common in unplanned settlement areas. As a result, households in the unplanned settlement areas within Mzuzu rely primarily on manual pit emptying (i.e., shoveling by hand) or digging a new pit latrine. These practices have associated health risks and are limited by space constraints. This research focused on filling the technological gap through the design, development, and testing of a pedal powered modified Gulper pump using locally available materials and fabrication. A modified pedal powered Gulper technology was developed and demonstrated to be capable of lifting fecal sludge from a depth of 1.5 m with a mean flow rate of 0.00058 m3/s. If the trash content was low, a typical pit latrine with a volume of 1-4 m3 could be emptied within 1-2 h. Based on the findings in our research Phase IV, the pedal powered Gulper modification is promising as a potential emptying technology for lined pit latrines in unplanned settlement areas. The success rate of the technology is about 17% (5 out 30 sampled lined pit latrines were successful) and reflects the difficulty in finding a single technology that can work well in all types of pit latrines with varying contents. We note that cost should not be the only design criteria and acknowledge the challenge of handling trash in pit latrines.

In vitro antiviral activity of Lactobacillus casei and Bifidobacterium adolescentis against rotavirus infection monitored by NSP4 protein production.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to determine the antiviral activity of four probiotic metabolites (Lactobacillus and Bifidobacetrium species) against rotavirus in vitro infection monitored by the NSP4 protein production and Ca(2+) release. METHODS AND RESULTS: The antiviral effect of the metabolites was performed due a comparison between a blocking model and an intracelullar model on MA104 cells, with the response of NSP4 production and Ca(2+) liberation measured by flow cytometry. Significant results were obtained with the metabolites of Lactobacillus casei, and Bifidobacterium adolescentis in the reduction of the protein production (P = 0·04 and P = 0·014) and Ca(2+) liberation (P = 0·094 and P = 0·020) in the intracellular model, which suggests a successful antiviral activity against RV infection. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that probiotic metabolites were able to interfere with the final amount of intracellular NSP4 protein and a successful Ca(2+) regulation, which suggests a new approach to the mechanism exerted by probiotics against the rotavirus infection. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: A novel anti-rotaviral effect exerted by probiotic metabolites monitored by the NSP4 protein during the RV in vitro infection and the effect on the Ca(2+) release is reported; suggesting a reduction on the impact of the infection by decreasing the damage of the cells preventing the electrolyte loss.

Pharmacokinetic study of enrofloxacin in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) after a single oral administration in medicated feed.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the disposition kinetics of enrofloxacin (ENR) in the plasma and its distribution in the muscle tissue of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) after a single oral dose of 10 mg/kg body weight via medicated feed. The fish were kept at a temperature between 28 and 30 °C. The collection period was between 30 min and 120 h after administration of the drug. The samples were analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography with a fluorescence detector (HPLC-FLD). The ENR was slowly absorbed and eliminated from the plasma (Cmax = 1.24 ± 0.37 µg/mL; Tmax = 8 h; T1/2Ke  = 19.36 h). ENR was efficiently distributed in the muscle tissue and reached maximum values (2.17 ± 0.74 µg/g) after 8 h. Its metabolite, ciprofloxacin (CIP), was detected and quantified in the plasma (0.004 ± 0.005 µg/mL) and muscle (0.01 ± 0.011 µg/g) for up to 48 h. After oral administration, the mean concentration of ENR in the plasma was well above the minimum inhibitory concentrations (MIC50 ) for most bacteria already isolated from fish except for Streptococcus spp. This way the dose used in this study allowed for concentrations in the blood to treat the diseases of tilapia.

Two high-mobility group box domains act together to underwind and kink DNA.

High-mobility group protein 1 (HMGB1) is an essential and ubiquitous DNA architectural factor that influences a myriad of cellular processes. HMGB1 contains two DNA-binding domains, box A and box B, which have little sequence specificity but have remarkable abilities to underwind and bend DNA. Although HMGB1 box A is thought to be responsible for the majority of HMGB1-DNA interactions with pre-bent or kinked DNA, little is known about how it recognizes unmodified DNA. Here, the crystal structure of HMGB1 box A bound to an AT-rich DNA fragment is reported at a resolution of 2 Å. Two box A domains of HMGB1 collaborate in an unusual configuration in which the Phe37 residues of both domains stack together and intercalate the same CG base pair, generating highly kinked DNA. This represents a novel mode of DNA recognition for HMGB proteins and reveals a mechanism by which structure-specific HMG boxes kink linear DNA.

Antimicrobial activity of reuterin produced by Lactobacillus reuteri on Listeria monocytogenes in cold-smoked salmon.

Lactobacillus reuteri INIA P579 was used for the production and purification of reuterin. The purity of reuterin was assessed by high resolution electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (HRESIMS) and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. After purification, reuterin concentration obtained was 1.3 M. The inhibitory activity using Escherichia coli K12 as indicator strain was estimated to be 510 AU/ml. Survival curves in tryptic soy broth revealed that reuterin required to inhibit the growth of three Listeria monocytogenes strains was in the range of 2-4 AU/ml. Purified reuterin (10 AU/g) significantly reduced the growth of L. monocytogenes in cold-smoked salmon kept under moderate or strong temperature abuse conditions. After 15 d at 8 °C, cold-smoked salmon with added reuterin exhibited L. monocytogenes counts 2.0 log CFU/g lower than control smoked salmon with no reuterin added. At 30 °C, reuterin also controlled the growth of the pathogen, with counts 1.4 and 0.9 log CFU/g lower than those observed in control smoked salmon after 24 and 48 h, respectively. The addition of purified reuterin might be used as a hurdle technology to improve the safety and extend the shelf-life of lightly preserved seafood products such as cold-smoked salmon.

Anthelmintic activity and chemical profile of native plant extracts from the Yucatan Peninsula against Toxocara canis.

Toxocara canis can produce the "larva migrans" syndrome in humans, and in puppies, it can cause severe digestive disorders. The most used treatments are based on anthelmintics, although there are reports of anthelmintic (AH) resistance. The Yucatan Peninsula has a great variety of plant species whose AH properties are still unknown. The objective of this study was to evaluate the in vitro AH activity of ethanolic (EE), methanolic (ME) and aqueous (AE) extracts from the leaves of five native plant species of the Yucatan Peninsula on T. canis eggs of dogs from Merida, Yucatan. As part of a screening, the EE of the plants Alseis yucatanensis, Calea jamaicensis, Cameraria latifolia, Macrocepis diademata, and Parathesis cubana were evaluated at doses of 2400 and 3600 µg/ml. The EE and AE of A. yucatanensis and M. diademata presented high percentages (≥ 91.3%) of inhibition of the larval development of T. canis after six days of exposure. The lowest LC50 and LC99 was presented by the ME from A. yucatanensis (255.5 and 629.06 µg/ml, respectively) and the ME from M. diademata (222.4 and 636.5 µg/ml, respectively), and the AE from A. yucatanenesis (LC50 of 535.9 µg/ml). Chemical profiling of the most potent AH extract (Alseis yucatanensis) was carried out by LC-UV-HRMS. Data from the ME and AE from this plant indicated the presence of the known glucosylngoumiensine, kaempferol 3,7-diglucosyde, uvaol, linoleic acid and linolenic acid together with unknown alkaloids. The EE, ME and AE from leaves of M. diademata and A. yucatanensis could be developed as natural alternatives to control T. canis.

Thyroid surgery in a district hospital in Southern Ethiopia: experience from a rural center.

BACKGROUND: Diseases of the thyroid are not uncommon, particularly in the highlands of Ethiopia. The aim of the present study was to describe the experience of thyroid surgery in a rural hospital in Southern Ethiopia. METHODS: The present study was based on review of surgical cases of thyroid diseases operated in a rural hospital in Southern Ethiopia during the period 2009-2010. RESULTS: During the study period, 211 patients underwent surgery for goiter. The mean age was 31.9 years (range: 14-80 years). The sex ratio, M:F, was 1:9. A total of 103 patients had unilateral nodules, and in 108 patients the nodules were located bilaterally. The mean duration of symptoms was 5.7 years (range: 0.7-25 years). In total, 161 (76.7 %) subtotal thyroidectomy operations, and 50 (23.3 %) hemi-thyroidectomy operations were performed. Histological examination revealed multinodular goiters in 203 (96.2 %) cases. Papillary and follicular cancers were found in 7 (3.3 %) and 1 (0.5 %) cases, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Thyroid surgery is feasible in a small rural Ethiopian District Hospital. The provision of surgical services in rural areas of low income and middle income countries is extremely important and delivers more health opportunities to the local people.

Depletion study and estimation of the withdrawal period for enrofloxacin in pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus).

Defining the pharmacokinetic parameters and depletion intervals for antimicrobials used in fish will help in the development of important guidelines for future regulations by Brazilian agencies on the use of these substances in fish farming. This paper presents a depletion study for enrofloxacin (ENR) and its main metabolite, ciprofloxacin (CIP), in pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus) fillets. The depletion study was carried out under monitored environmental conditions, with the temperature controlled at 27 °C to mimic the fish farming conditions in Brazil. ENR was administered orally via medicated feed for 10 consecutive days at daily dosages of 10 mg/kg body weight (b.w.). The fish were slaughtered at 6, 12, and 24 h and 2, 3, 5, 8, 12, 17, and 24 days after the medication period. Considering a maximum residue limit of 100 µg/kg for the sum of the ENR and CIP residues in the fillet, the results obtained in the depletion study allowed the estimation of a half-life for ENR of 2.75 days and a withdrawal period of 23 days. The results obtained in this study are important for the farming of pacu in tropical regions.

[Earthquake in Chile: acute stress and post traumatic stress disorder among women in treatment for severe depression]. / Terremoto en Chile: estrés agudo y estrés post-traumático en mujeres en tratamiento por depresión grave.

BACKGROUND: Depression is a risk factor for developing secondary post-traumatic stress disorder. The earthquake on February 27th, 2010, destroyed the Hospital of Curicó. Despite the prevailing chaos, patients in treatment for severe depression actively maintained their treatment from the first post-earthquake working day AIM: To determine prevalence of acute stress (AS) and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after the earthquake among women in treatment for severe depression. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Seventy five women aged 20 to 73 years in treatment for depression for at least six months before the oceurrence of the earthquake, who continued in follow up after the event, were studied. According to the Tenth International Classification of Diseases, the frequency of AS was assessed during the consultation oceurring one month after the event and the frequency of PTSD was assessed during the consultation oceurring six months after the event. RESULTS: Fifty nine percent of women had AS symptoms at the first month and 53.3% had PTSD, six months later. AS was significantly associated with a low educational level. PTSD was significantly associated with prior oceurrence of AS and a history of childhood trauma history. CONCLUSIONS: A high frequeney of PTSD was observed in this group of depressive patients, which was significantly associated with a history of previous AS and childhood trauma.

A hierarchical dataset of vegetative and reproductive growth in apple tree organs under conventional and non-limited carbon resources.

A monitoring of apple fruit, shoot and trunk growth was performed on 15 trees, equally split according to three treatments, which determined heavily contrasting carbon assimilate availability: unmanipulated trees (FRU), thinned trees (THI) and defruited trees (DEF). Several variables describe the vegetative growth on FRU and DEF trees (shoot length, base diameter, number of fruits on shoot, and height, diameter, pruning intensity and number of fruits of the branch carrying the shoot; trunk circumference), as well as the fruit growth on FRU and THI trees (3 fruit diameters). Additional measurements from ancillary shoots (apical diameter, number of leaves, leaf dry weight, stem dry weight, fresh mass, volume) and fruits (3 diameters, dry weight) from trees undergoing the same treatments, provide a more complete (destructive) characterization of organs growth, thanks to several measurements performed across the growing season. Organs are provided with categorical variables indicating the treatment, tree, canopy height, orientation (for both shoots and fruit), as well as branch and shoot identifiers, so that hierarchical modeling of the dataset can be performed. The dataset is completed with dates and day of the year of the measurements and the accumulated growing degree days from full bloom. Data can be used to calculate apple tree absolute and relative growth rates, maximum potential growth rates, as well as shoot growth responses to thinning and pruning. The dataset can also be used to calibrate allometric relationships, estimate structural apple tree growth parameters and their variability.

[Ophthalmic manifestations in patients recovered from COVID-19 in Mexico]. / Manifestaciones oftálmicas en pacientes recuperados de COVID-19 en México.

Introduction and objectives: Although the ophthalmic manifestations appear to be associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), there is not enough evidence. Hence, the aim of this study was to determine the various types and frequency of ophthalmic manifestations in patients recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection in Mexico. Material and methods: This retrospective, observational and descriptive study included all patients recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection attending the tertiary level hospital of Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) from June 2020 to June 2022. During the hospital admission of patients, the demographic data such age, name, gender was recorded. Ophthalmologic examination was performed under torchlight by an ophthalmologist in the Department of Ophthalmology from IMSS. Data was compiled and statistically analyzed using Fisher's exact test and Spearman correlation. Results: A total of 3,081 SARS-CoV-2-positive patients were recorded, of which 318 (10.32%) met the inclusion criteria. Of them, 21 (6.60%) had ophthalmic manifestations and the female-to-male ratio was 1.6:1. The mean age (±SD) was 47.95 ± 15.27 years and the median (interquartile range) time from the diagnosis of COVID-19, as defined by positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing, to detection of the ophthalmic manifestation was 31 (142) days. The most common ocular manifestation was orbital mucormycosis (23.80%). Interestingly, the presence of ophthalmic manifestations was not associated with severe COVID-19 (p = 0.665). Conclusions: The ophthalmic manifestations are infrequent in patients recovered from severe COVID-19. Nevertheless, further large sample studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Ophthalmic manifestations in patients recovered from COVID-19 in Mexico.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Although the ophthalmic manifestations appear to be associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), there is not enough evidence. Hence, the aim of this study was to determine the various types and frequency of ophthalmic manifestations in patients recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection in Mexico. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This retrospective, observational and descriptive study included all patients recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection attending the tertiary level hospital of Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) from June 2020 to June 2022. During the hospital admission of patients, the demographic data such age, name, gender was recorded. Ophthalmologic examination was performed under torchlight by an ophthalmologist in the Department of Ophthalmology from IMSS. Data was compiled and statistically analyzed using Fisher's exact test and Spearman correlation. RESULTS: A total of 3081 SARS-CoV-2-positive patients were recorded, of which 318 (10.32%) met the inclusion criteria. Of them, 21 (6.60%) had ophthalmic manifestations and the female-to-male ratio was 1.6:1. The mean age (±SD) was 47.95±15.27 years and the median (interquartile range) time from the diagnosis of COVID-19, as defined by positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing, to detection of the ophthalmic manifestation was 31 (142) days. The most common ocular manifestation was orbital mucormycosis (23.80%). Interestingly, the presence of ophthalmic manifestations was not associated with severe COVID-19 (p=0.665). CONCLUSIONS: The ophthalmic manifestations are infrequent in patients recovered from severe COVID-19. Nevertheless, further large sample studies are needed to confirm these findings.

[Radiation exposure of the spine surgeon]. / Exposición a radiación del cirujano de columna.

INTRODUCTION: in general, spine surgeons seek to minimize soft tissue damage by using less invasive approaches, which causes them to use intraoperative images much more frequently than other surgical specialties; therefore, they are at increased risk of radiation exposure. OBJECTIVE: the aim of this work was to analyse the amount of radiation to which the spine surgeon is exposed in different scenarios. MATERIAL AND METHODS: a prospective study with a descriptive, longitudinal non-randomized data source. We carried out this study in the period from 2015 to 2019, the radiologic protection consisted in lead apron, thyroid shield and leaded glasses, there were 10 badge dosimeters. RESULTS: only 4 dosimeters were included in the study, the other six were excluded. During the study period one surgeon suffered thyroid cancer and other suffered of liposarcoma. In the protected group were two surgeons, in the group of aleatory exposition was one surgeon and in the unprotected group was one surgeon. In the study the dosimeter in the unprotected group received more amount of radiation in all the years, we did an inferential analysis per year related with the number of surgeries without significant correlation, we attribute this result because we didn't classified the type of surgery realized by each surgeon. CONCLUSION: we conclude that the spine surgeon must apply the primary methods of radiological protection and that the unprotected spine surgeon receives more amount of radiation in comparison of the protected ones.

INTRODUCCIÓN: en general, los cirujanos de columna buscan minimizar el daño a tejidos blandos empleando abordajes menos invasivos, lo que ocasiona que utilicen imágenes intraoperatorias de una manera mucho más habitual que el resto de las especialidades quirúrgicas; por lo tanto, están en mayor riesgo de exposición de radiación. OBJETIVO: el propósito del trabajo es analizar la cantidad de radiación a la cual está expuesto el cirujano de columna en diferentes escenarios. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: estudio prospectivo con una fuente de datos descriptiva, longitudinal, no aleatorizada. Se llevó a cabo el estudio en el período del año 2015 al 2019; la protección radiológica consistió en chaleco plomado, protector de tiroides y lentes plomados; se usaron 10 dosímetros. RESULTADOS: cuatro dosímetros fueron incluidos en el estudio, los otros seis fueron excluidos. Durante el estudio, un cirujano sufrió de cáncer de tiroides y otro de liposarcoma. En el grupo de protegidos se incluyeron dos cirujanos, en el grupo de protección aleatorizada se incluyó un cirujano y en el grupo sin protección se incluyó un cirujano. El dosímetro del grupo sin protección recibió mayor cantidad de radiación en todos los años, se realizó un análisis inferencial por año relacionado con el número de cirugías no encontrando correlación significativa, atribuimos este resultado a que no clasificamos el tipo de cirugía realizada por cada cirujano. CONCLUSIÓN: el cirujano de columna debe de aplicar los métodos primarios de protección radiológica, ya que los cirujanos de columna sin equipo de protección reciben mayor cantidad de radiación en comparación con los protegidos.

Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles.

The control of epidemic malaria is a priority for the international health community and specific targets for the early detection and effective control of epidemics have been agreed. Interannual climate variability is an important determinant of epidemics in parts of Africa where climate drives both mosquito vector dynamics and parasite development rates. Hence, skilful seasonal climate forecasts may provide early warning of changes of risk in epidemic-prone regions. Here we discuss the development of a system to forecast probabilities of anomalously high and low malaria incidence with dynamically based, seasonal-timescale, multi-model ensemble predictions of climate, using leading global coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models developed in Europe. This forecast system is successfully applied to the prediction of malaria risk in Botswana, where links between malaria and climate variability are well established, adding up to four months lead time over malaria warnings issued with observed precipitation and having a comparably high level of probabilistic prediction skill. In years in which the forecast probability distribution is different from that of climatology, malaria decision-makers can use this information for improved resource allocation.