Synthesis and Fluorescent Properties of Alkynyl- and Alkenyl-Fused Benzotriazole-Derived α-Amino Acids.

Fluorescent unnatural α-amino acids are widely used as probes in chemical biology and medicinal chemistry. While a variety of structural classes have been developed, there is still a requirement for new environmentally sensitive analogues that can closely mimic proteinogenic α-amino acids. Here, we report the synthesis and fluorescent properties of highly conjugated, benzotriazole-derived α-amino acids designed to mimic l-tryptophan. Alkynyl-substituted analogues were prepared using three key steps, nucleophilic aromatic substitution with a 3-aminoalanine derivative, benzotriazole formation via a one-pot diazotization and cyclization process, and a Sonogashira cross-coupling reaction. E-Alkenyl-substituted benzotriazoles were accessed by stereoselective partial hydrogenation of the alkynes using zinc iodide and palladium catalysis. The alkynyl analogues were found to possess higher quantum yields and stronger brightness and, a solvatochromic study with the most fluorogenic α-amino acids demonstrated sensitivity to polarity.

Data gaps towards health development goals, 47 low- and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the availability and gaps in data for measuring progress towards health-related sustainable development goals and other targets in selected low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: We used 14 international population surveys to evaluate the health data systems in the 47 least developed countries over the years 2015-2020. We reviewed the survey instruments to determine whether they contained tools that could be used to measure 46 health-related indicators defined by the World Health Organization. We recorded the number of countries with data available on the indicators from these surveys. FINDINGS: Twenty-seven indicators were measurable by the surveys we identified. The two health emergency indicators were not measurable by current surveys. The percentage of countries that used surveys to collect data over 2015-2020 were lowest for tuberculosis (2/47; 4.3%), hepatitis B (3/47; 6.4%), human immunodeficiency virus (11/47; 23.4%), child development status and child abuse (both 13/47; 27.7%), compared with safe drinking water (37/47; 78.7%) and births attended by skilled health personnel (36/47; 76.6%). Nineteen countries collected data on 21 or more indicators over 2015-2020 while nine collected data on no indicators; over 2018-2020 these numbers reduced to six and 20, respectively. CONCLUSION: Examining selected international surveys provided a quick summary of health data available in the 47 least developed countries. We found major gaps in health data due to long survey cycles and lack of appropriate survey instruments. Novel indicators and survey instruments would be needed to track the fast-changing situation of health emergencies.

Palladium-Catalyzed C-P Bond-Forming Reactions of Aryl Nonaflates Accelerated by Iodide.

An iodide-accelerated, palladium-catalyzed C-P bond-forming reaction of aryl nonaflates is described. The protocol was optimized for the synthesis of aryl phosphine oxides and was found to be tolerant of a wide range of aryl nonaflates. The general nature of this transformation was established with coupling to other P(O)H compounds for the synthesis of aryl phosphonates and an aryl phosphinate. The straightforward synthesis of stable, isolable aryl nonaflates, in combination with the rapid C-P bond-forming reaction allows facile preparation of aryl phosphorus target compounds from readily available phenol starting materials. The synthetic utility of this general strategy was demonstrated with the efficient preparation of an organic light-emitting diode (OLED) material and a phosphonophenylalanine mimic.

Automated Radiosynthesis of cis- and trans-4-[18F]Fluoro-l-proline Using [18F]Fluoride.

The positron emission tomography imaging agents cis- and trans-4-[18F]fluoro-l-proline are used for the detection of numerous diseases such as pulmonary fibrosis and various carcinomas. These imaging agents are typically prepared by nucleophilic fluorination of 4-hydroxy-l-proline derivatives, with [18F]fluoride, followed by deprotection. Although effective radiofluorination reactions have been developed, the overall radiosynthesis process is suboptimal due to deprotection methods that are performed manually, require multiple steps, or involve harsh conditions. Here we describe the development of two synthetic routes that allow access to precursors, which undergo highly selective radiofluorination reactions and rapid deprotection, under mild acidic conditions. These methods were found to be compatible with automation, avoiding manual handling of radioactive intermediates.

National palliative care capacities around the world: Results from the World Health Organization Noncommunicable Disease Country Capacity Survey.

BACKGROUND: Previous estimates of global palliative care development have not been based on official country data. AIM: The World Health Organization Noncommunicable Disease Country Capacity Survey of World Health Organization member state officials monitors countries' capacities for the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases. In 2015, for the first time, questions were included on a number of palliative care development metrics to generate baseline data for monitoring global palliative care development. DESIGN: Participants were given instructions, a glossary of terms, and 3 months to complete this closed, non-randomized, online survey. Questions were developed through a consultative process with relevant technical World Health Organization departments. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Health ministry officials serving as noncommunicable disease focal points from 177 out of 194 (91%) of World Health Organization Member States completed the voluntary survey. RESULTS: This survey reveals that (a) a minority (37%) of countries have an operational national policy for noncommunicable diseases that includes palliative care, (b) palliative care is least likely to have funding available compared with other core noncommunicable disease services, and (c) there is a large country-income gradient for palliative care funding, oral morphine availability, and integration of palliative care services at the primary levels of the health system. CONCLUSION: Palliative care for noncommunicable disease patients must be strengthened in a majority of countries. These data provide a baseline for trend measurement of official country-level and global palliative care development. A repeat assessment is taking place in the first half of 2017.

The World Health Organization STEPwise Approach to Noncommunicable Disease Risk-Factor Surveillance: Methods, Challenges, and Opportunities.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to outline the framework and methods used by the World Health Organization (WHO) STEPwise approach to noncommunicable disease (NCD) surveillance (STEPS), describe the development and current status, and discuss strengths, limitations, and future directions of STEPS surveillance. METHODS: STEPS is a WHO-developed, standardized but flexible framework for countries to monitor the main NCD risk factors through questionnaire assessment and physical and biochemical measurements. It is coordinated by national authorities of the implementing country. The STEPS surveys are generally household-based and interviewer-administered, with scientifically selected samples of around 5000 participants. RESULTS: To date, 122 countries across all 6 WHO regions have completed data collection for STEPS or STEPS-aligned surveys. CONCLUSIONS: STEPS data are being used to inform NCD policies and track risk-factor trends. Future priorities include strengthening these linkages from data to action on NCDs at the country level, and continuing to develop STEPS' capacities to enable a regular and continuous cycle of risk-factor surveillance worldwide.

Contribution of six risk factors to achieving the 25×25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Countries have agreed to reduce premature mortality (defined as the probability of dying between the ages of 30 years and 70 years) from four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs)--cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, cancers, and diabetes--by 25% from 2010 levels by 2025 (referred to as 25×25 target). Targets for selected NCD risk factors have also been agreed on. We estimated the contribution of achieving six risk factor targets towards meeting the 25×25 mortality target. METHODS: We estimated the impact of achieving the targets for six risk factors (tobacco and alcohol use, salt intake, obesity, and raised blood pressure and glucose) on NCD mortality between 2010 and 2025. Our methods accounted for multi-causality of NCDs and for the fact that when risk factor exposure increases or decreases, the harmful or beneficial effects on NCDs accumulate gradually. We used data for risk factor and mortality trends from systematic analyses of available country data. Relative risks for the effects of individual and multiple risks, and for change in risk after decreases or increases in exposure, were from re-analyses and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies. FINDINGS: If risk factor targets are achieved, the probability of dying from the four main NCDs between the ages of 30 years and 70 years will decrease by 22% in men and by 19% in women between 2010 and 2025, compared with a decrease of 11% in men and 10% in women under the so-called business-as-usual trends (ie, projections based on current trends with no additional action). Achieving the risk factor targets will delay or prevent more than 37 million deaths (16 million in people aged 30-69 years and 21 million in people aged 70 years or older) from the main NCDs over these 15 years compared with a situation of rising or stagnating risk factor trends. Most of the benefits of achieving the risk factor targets, including 31 million of the delayed or prevented deaths, will be in low-income and middle-income countries, and will help to reduce the global inequality in premature NCD mortality. A more ambitious target on tobacco use (a 50% reduction) will almost reach the target in men (>24% reduction in the probability of death), and enhance the benefits to a 20% reduction in women. INTERPRETATION: If the agreed risk factor targets are met, premature mortality from the four main NCDs will decrease to levels that are close to the 25×25 target, with most of these benefits seen in low-income and middle-income countries. On the basis of mortality benefits and feasibility, a more ambitious target than currently agreed should be adopted for tobacco use. FUNDING: UK MRC.

The global cardiovascular risk transition: associations of four metabolic risk factors with national income, urbanization, and Western diet in 1980 and 2008.

BACKGROUND: It is commonly assumed that cardiovascular disease risk factors are associated with affluence and Westernization. We investigated the associations of body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose, systolic blood pressure, and serum total cholesterol with national income, Western diet, and, for BMI, urbanization in 1980 and 2008. METHODS AND RESULTS: Country-level risk factor estimates for 199 countries between 1980 and 2008 were from a previous systematic analysis of population-based data. We analyzed the associations between risk factors and per capita national income, a measure of Western diet, and, for BMI, the percentage of the population living in urban areas. In 1980, there was a positive association between national income and population mean BMI, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol. By 2008, the slope of the association between national income and systolic blood pressure became negative for women and zero for men. Total cholesterol was associated with national income and Western diet in both 1980 and 2008. In 1980, BMI rose with national income and then flattened at ≈Int$7000; by 2008, the relationship resembled an inverted U for women, peaking at middle-income levels. BMI had a positive relationship with the percentage of urban population in both 1980 and 2008. Fasting plasma glucose had weaker associations with these country macro characteristics, but it was positively associated with BMI. CONCLUSIONS: The changing associations of metabolic risk factors with macroeconomic variables indicate that there will be a global pandemic of hyperglycemia and diabetes mellitus, together with high blood pressure in low-income countries, unless effective lifestyle and pharmacological interventions are implemented.

Synthesis of ß-Pyridyl α-Amino Acids: Conformationally Sensitive Charge Transfer-Based Fluorophores.

Unnatural α-amino acids with charge transfer-based poly aromatic side chains have been designed as conformationally sensitive fluorophores. These were prepared using a hetero-Diels-Alder reaction and a Knoevenagel-Stobbe process to generate a biaryl pyridyl unit, followed by iron-catalyzed bromination and a Suzuki-Miyaura cross-coupling reaction to complete the triaryl system. A photophysical study led to the discovery of a p-methoxy analogue which exhibited viscosity-sensitive fluorescence in which emission could be controlled between twisted and planar conformations.

National, regional, and global trends in insufficient physical activity among adults from 2000 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 507 population-based surveys with 5·7 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Insufficient physical activity increases the risk of non-communicable diseases, poor physical and cognitive function, weight gain, and mental ill-health. Global prevalence of adult insufficient physical activity was last published for 2016, with limited trend data. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of insufficient physical activity for 197 countries and territories, from 2000 to 2022. METHODS: We collated physical activity reported by adults (aged ≥18 years) in population-based surveys. Insufficient physical activity was defined as not doing 150 minutes of moderate-intensity activity, 75 minutes of vigorous-intensity activity, or an equivalent combination per week. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to compute estimates of insufficient physical activity by country or territory, year, age, and sex. We assessed whether countries or territories, regions, and the world would meet the global target of a 15% relative reduction of the prevalence of insufficient physical activity by 2030 if 2010-22 trends continue. FINDINGS: We included 507 surveys across 163 countries and territories. The global age-standardised prevalence of insufficient physical activity was 31·3% (95% uncertainty interval 28·6-34·0) in 2022, an increase from 23·4% (21·1-26·0) in 2000 and 26·4% (24·8-27·9) in 2010. Prevalence was increasing in 103 (52%) of 197 countries and territories and six (67%) of nine regions, and was declining in the remainder. Prevalence was 5 percentage points higher among female (33·8% [29·9-37·7]) than male (28·7% [25·0-32·6]) individuals. Insufficient physical activity increased in people aged 60 years and older in all regions and both sexes, but age patterns differed for those younger than 60 years. If 2010-22 trends continue, the global target of a 15% relative reduction between 2010 and 2030 will not be met (posterior probability <0·01); however, two regions, Oceania and sub-Saharan Africa, were on track with considerable uncertainty (posterior probabilities 0·70-0·74). INTERPRETATION: Concerted multi-sectoral efforts to reduce insufficient physical activity levels are needed to meet the 2030 target. Physical activity promotion should not exacerbate sex, age, or geographical inequalities. FUNDING: Ministry of Public Health, Qatar, and World Health Organization. TRANSLATIONS: For the Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

The age associations of blood pressure, cholesterol, and glucose: analysis of health examination surveys from international populations.

BACKGROUND: The age association of cardiovascular disease may be in part because its metabolic risk factors tend to rise with age. Few studies have analyzed age associations of multiple metabolic risks in the same population, especially in nationally representative samples. We examined worldwide variations in the age associations of systolic blood pressure (SBP), total cholesterol (TC), and fasting plasma glucose (FPG). METHODS AND RESULTS: We used individual records from 83 nationally or subnationally representative health examination surveys in 52 countries to fit a linear model to risk factor data between ages 30 and 64 years for SBP and FPG, and between 30 and 54 years for TC. We report the cross-country variation of the slope and intercept of this relationship. We also assessed nonlinear associations in older ages. Between 30 and 64 years of age, SBP increased by 1.7 to 11.6 mm Hg per 10 years of age, and FPG increased by 0.8 to 20.4 mg/dL per 10 years of age in different countries and in the 2 sexes. Between 30 and 54 years of age, TC increased by 0.2 to 22.4 mg/dL per 10 years of age in different surveys and in the 2 sexes. For all risk factors and in most countries, risk factor levels rose more steeply among women than among men, especially for TC. On average, there was a flattening of age-SBP relationship in older ages; TC and FPG age associations reversed in older ages, leading to lower levels in older ages than in middle ages. CONCLUSIONS: The rise with age of major metabolic cardiovascular disease risk factors varied substantially across populations, especially for FPG and TC. TC rose more steeply in high-income countries and FPG in the Oceania countries, the Middle East, and the United States. The SBP age association had no specific income or geographical pattern.

Health of the world's adolescents: a synthesis of internationally comparable data.

Adolescence and young adulthood offer opportunities for health gains both through prevention and early clinical intervention. Yet development of health information systems to support this work has been weak and so far lagged behind those for early childhood and adulthood. With falls in the number of deaths in earlier childhood in many countries and a shifting emphasis to non-communicable disease risks, injuries, and mental health, there are good reasons to assess the present sources of health information for young people. We derive indicators from the conceptual framework for the Series on adolescent health and assess the available data to describe them. We selected indicators for their public health importance and their coverage of major health outcomes in young people, health risk behaviours and states, risk and protective factors, social role transitions relevant to health, and health service inputs. We then specify definitions that maximise international comparability. Even with this optimisation of data usage, only seven of the 25 indicators, covered at least 50% of the world's adolescents. The worst adolescent health profiles are in sub-Saharan Africa, with persisting high mortality from maternal and infectious causes. Risks for non-communicable diseases are spreading rapidly, with the highest rates of tobacco use and overweight, and lowest rates of physical activity, predominantly in adolescents living in low-income and middle-income countries. Even for present global health agendas, such as HIV infection and maternal mortality, data sources are incomplete for adolescents. We propose a series of steps that include better coordination and use of data collected across countries, greater harmonisation of school-based surveys, further development of strategies for socially marginalised youth, targeted research into the validity and use of these health indicators, advocating for adolescent-health information within new global health initiatives, and a recommendation that every country produce a regular report on the health of its adolescents.

Effectiveness of a participatory approach to develop school health interventions in four low resource cities: study protocol of the 'empowering adolescents to lead change using health data' cluster randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Comprehensive local data on adolescent health are often lacking, particularly in lower resource settings. Furthermore, there are knowledge gaps around which interventions are effective to support healthy behaviours. This study generates health information for students from cities in four middle-income countries to plan, implement and subsequently evaluate a package of interventions to improve health outcomes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will conduct a cluster randomised controlled trial in schools in Fez, Morocco; Jaipur, India; Saint Catherine Parish, Jamaica; and Sekondi-Takoradi, Ghana. In each city, approximately 30 schools will be randomly selected and assigned to the control or intervention arm. Baseline data collection includes three components. First, a Global School Health Policies and Practices Survey (G-SHPPS) to be completed by principals of all selected schools. Second, a Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) to be administered to a target sample of n=3153 13-17 years old students of randomly selected classes of these schools, including questions on alcohol, tobacco and drug use, diet, hygiene, mental health, physical activity, protective factors, sexual behaviours, violence and injury. Third, a study validating the GSHS physical activity questions against wrist-worn accelerometry in one randomly selected class in each control school (n approximately 300 students per city). Intervention schools will develop a suite of interventions using a participatory approach driven by students and involving parents/guardians, teachers and community stakeholders. Interventions will aim to change existing structures and policies at schools to positively influence students' behaviour, using the collected data and guided by the framework for Making Every School a Health Promoting School. Outcomes will be assessed for differential change after a 2-year follow-up. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by WHO's Research Ethics Review Committee; by the Jodhpur School of Public Health's Institutional Review Board for Jaipur, India; by the Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research Institutional Review Board for Sekondi-Takoradi, Ghana; by the Ministry of Health and Wellness' Advisory Panel on Ethics and Medico-Legal Affairs for St Catherine Parish, Jamaica, and by the Comité d'éthique pour la recherche biomédicale of the Université Mohammed V of Rabat for Fez, Morocco. Findings will be shared through open access publications and conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04963426.

National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5·4 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Data for trends in blood pressure are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. However, few worldwide analyses of trends in blood pressure have been done. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean systolic blood pressure (SBP). METHODS: We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean SBP for adults 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (786 country-years and 5·4 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean SBP by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative. FINDINGS: In 2008, age-standardised mean SBP worldwide was 128·1 mm Hg (95% uncertainty interval 126·7-129·4) in men and 124·4 mm Hg (123·0-125·9) in women. Globally, between 1980 and 2008, SBP decreased by 0·8 mm Hg per decade (-0·4 to 2·2, posterior probability of being a true decline=0·90) in men and 1·0 mm Hg per decade (-0·3 to 2·3, posterior probability=0·93) in women. Female SBP decreased by 3·5 mm Hg or more per decade in western Europe and Australasia (posterior probabilities ≥0·999). Male SBP fell most in high-income North America, by 2·8 mm Hg per decade (1·3-4·5, posterior probability >0·999), followed by Australasia and western Europe where it decreased by more than 2·0 mm Hg per decade (posterior probabilities >0·98). SBP rose in Oceania, east Africa, and south and southeast Asia for both sexes, and in west Africa for women, with the increases ranging 0·8-1·6 mm Hg per decade in men (posterior probabilities 0·72-0·91) and 1·0-2·7 mm Hg per decade for women (posterior probabilities 0·75-0·98). Female SBP was highest in some east and west African countries, with means of 135 mm Hg or greater. Male SBP was highest in Baltic and east and west African countries, where mean SBP reached 138 mm Hg or more. Men and women in western Europe had the highest SBP in high-income regions. INTERPRETATION: On average, global population SBP decreased slightly since 1980, but trends varied significantly across regions and countries. SBP is currently highest in low-income and middle-income countries. Effective population-based and personal interventions should be targeted towards low-income and middle-income countries. FUNDING: Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

National, regional, and global trends in body-mass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9·1 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Excess bodyweight is a major public health concern. However, few worldwide comparative analyses of long-term trends of body-mass index (BMI) have been done, and none have used recent national health examination surveys. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean BMI. METHODS: We estimated trends and their uncertainties of mean BMI for adults 20 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (960 country-years and 9·1 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean BMI by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative. FINDINGS: Between 1980 and 2008, mean BMI worldwide increased by 0·4 kg/m(2) per decade (95% uncertainty interval 0·2-0·6, posterior probability of being a true increase >0·999) for men and 0·5 kg/m(2) per decade (0·3-0·7, posterior probability >0·999) for women. National BMI change for women ranged from non-significant decreases in 19 countries to increases of more than 2·0 kg/m(2) per decade (posterior probabilities >0·99) in nine countries in Oceania. Male BMI increased in all but eight countries, by more than 2 kg/m(2) per decade in Nauru and Cook Islands (posterior probabilities >0·999). Male and female BMIs in 2008 were highest in some Oceania countries, reaching 33·9 kg/m(2) (32·8-35·0) for men and 35·0 kg/m(2) (33·6-36·3) for women in Nauru. Female BMI was lowest in Bangladesh (20·5 kg/m(2), 19·8-21·3) and male BMI in Democratic Republic of the Congo 19·9 kg/m(2) (18·2-21·5), with BMI less than 21·5 kg/m(2) for both sexes in a few countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and east, south, and southeast Asia. The USA had the highest BMI of high-income countries. In 2008, an estimated 1·46 billion adults (1·41-1·51 billion) worldwide had BMI of 25 kg/m(2) or greater, of these 205 million men (193-217 million) and 297 million women (280-315 million) were obese. INTERPRETATION: Globally, mean BMI has increased since 1980. The trends since 1980, and mean population BMI in 2008, varied substantially between nations. Interventions and policies that can curb or reverse the increase, and mitigate the health effects of high BMI by targeting its metabolic mediators, are needed in most countries. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

National, regional, and global trends in serum total cholesterol since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 321 country-years and 3·0 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Data for trends in serum cholesterol are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. Previous analyses of trends in serum cholesterol were limited to a few countries, with no consistent and comparable global analysis. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean serum total cholesterol. METHODS: We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean serum total cholesterol for adults 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (321 country-years and 3·0 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean total cholesterol by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative. FINDINGS: In 2008, age-standardised mean total cholesterol worldwide was 4·64 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 4·51-4·76) for men and 4·76 mmol/L (4·62-4·91) for women. Globally, mean total cholesterol changed little between 1980 and 2008, falling by less than 0·1 mmol/L per decade in men and women. Total cholesterol fell in the high-income region consisting of Australasia, North America, and western Europe, and in central and eastern Europe; the regional declines were about 0·2 mmol/L per decade for both sexes, with posterior probabilities of these being true declines 0·99 or greater. Mean total cholesterol increased in east and southeast Asia and Pacific by 0·08 mmol/L per decade (-0·06 to 0·22, posterior probability=0·86) in men and 0·09 mmol/L per decade (-0·07 to 0·26, posterior probability=0·86) in women. Despite converging trends, serum total cholesterol in 2008 was highest in the high-income region consisting of Australasia, North America, and western Europe; the regional mean was 5·24 mmol/L (5·08-5·39) for men and 5·23 mmol/L (5·03-5·43) for women. It was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa at 4·08 mmol/L (3·82-4·34) for men and 4·27 mmol/L (3·99-4·56) for women. INTERPRETATION: Nutritional policies and pharmacological interventions should be used to accelerate improvements in total cholesterol in regions with decline and to curb or prevent the rise in Asian populations and elsewhere. Population-based surveillance of cholesterol needs to be improved in low-income and middle-income countries. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2·7 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Data for trends in glycaemia and diabetes prevalence are needed to understand the effects of diet and lifestyle within populations, assess the performance of interventions, and plan health services. No consistent and comparable global analysis of trends has been done. We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and diabetes prevalence for adults aged 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. METHODS: We obtained data from health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (370 country-years and 2·7 million participants). We converted systematically between different glycaemic metrics. For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean FPG and its uncertainty by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally, subnationally, or community representative. FINDINGS: In 2008, global age-standardised mean FPG was 5·50 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 5·37-5·63) for men and 5·42 mmol/L (5·29-5·54) for women, having risen by 0·07 mmol/L and 0·09 mmol/L per decade, respectively. Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence was 9·8% (8·6-11·2) in men and 9·2% (8·0-10·5) in women in 2008, up from 8·3% (6·5-10·4) and 7·5% (5·8-9·6) in 1980. The number of people with diabetes increased from 153 (127-182) million in 1980, to 347 (314-382) million in 2008. We recorded almost no change in mean FPG in east and southeast Asia and central and eastern Europe. Oceania had the largest rise, and the highest mean FPG (6·09 mmol/L, 5·73-6·49 for men; 6·08 mmol/L, 5·72-6·46 for women) and diabetes prevalence (15·5%, 11·6-20·1 for men; and 15·9%, 12·1-20·5 for women) in 2008. Mean FPG and diabetes prevalence in 2008 were also high in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and central Asia, north Africa, and the Middle East. Mean FPG in 2008 was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, east and southeast Asia, and high-income Asia-Pacific. In high-income subregions, western Europe had the smallest rise, 0·07 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·03 mmol/L per decade for women; North America had the largest rise, 0·18 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·14 mmol/L per decade for women. INTERPRETATION: Glycaemia and diabetes are rising globally, driven both by population growth and ageing and by increasing age-specific prevalences. Effective preventive interventions are needed, and health systems should prepare to detect and manage diabetes and its sequelae. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

National, regional, and global trends in adult overweight and obesity prevalences.

BACKGROUND: Overweight and obesity prevalence are commonly used for public and policy communication of the extent of the obesity epidemic, yet comparable estimates of trends in overweight and obesity prevalence by country are not available. METHODS: We estimated trends between 1980 and 2008 in overweight and obesity prevalence and their uncertainty for adults 20 years of age and older in 199 countries and territories. Data were from a previous study, which used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean body mass index (BMI) based on published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiologic studies. Here, we used the estimated mean BMIs in a regression model to predict overweight and obesity prevalence by age, country, year, and sex. The uncertainty of the estimates included both those of the Bayesian hierarchical model and the uncertainty due to cross-walking from mean BMI to overweight and obesity prevalence. RESULTS: The global age-standardized prevalence of obesity nearly doubled from 6.4% (95% uncertainty interval 5.7-7.2%) in 1980 to 12.0% (11.5-12.5%) in 2008. Half of this rise occurred in the 20 years between 1980 and 2000, and half occurred in the 8 years between 2000 and 2008. The age-standardized prevalence of overweight increased from 24.6% (22.7-26.7%) to 34.4% (33.2-35.5%) during the same 28-year period. In 2008, female obesity prevalence ranged from 1.4% (0.7-2.2%) in Bangladesh and 1.5% (0.9-2.4%) in Madagascar to 70.4% (61.9-78.9%) in Tonga and 74.8% (66.7-82.1%) in Nauru. Male obesity was below 1% in Bangladesh, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Ethiopia, and was highest in Cook Islands (60.1%, 52.6-67.6%) and Nauru (67.9%, 60.5-75.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Globally, the prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased since 1980, and the increase has accelerated. Although obesity increased in most countries, levels and trends varied substantially. These data on trends in overweight and obesity may be used to set targets for obesity prevalence as requested at the United Nations high-level meeting on Prevention and Control of NCDs.

Cervical cancer screening programmes and age-specific coverage estimates for 202 countries and territories worldwide: a review and synthetic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer screening coverage is a key monitoring indicator of the WHO cervical cancer elimination plan. We present global, regional, and national cervical screening coverage estimates against the backdrop of the 70% coverage target set by WHO. METHODS: In this review and synthetic analysis, we searched scientific literature, government websites, and official documentation to identify official national recommendations and coverage data for cervical cancer screening for the 194 WHO member states and eight associated countries and territories published from database inception until Oct 30, 2020, supplemented with a formal WHO country consultation from Nov 27, 2020, to Feb 12, 2021. We extracted data on the year of introduction of recommendations, the existence of individual invitation to participate, financing of screening tests, primary screening and triage tests used, recommended ages and screening intervals, use of self-sampling, and use of screen-and-treat approaches. We also collected coverage data, either administrative or survey-based, as disaggregated as possible by age and for any available screening interval. According to data completeness and representativeness, different statistical models were developed to produce national age-specific coverages by screening interval, which were transformed into single-age datapoints. Missing data were imputed. Estimates were applied to the 2019 population and aggregated by region and income level. FINDINGS: We identified recommendations for cervical screening in 139 (69%) of 202 countries and territories. Cytology was the primary screening test in 109 (78%) of 139 countries. 48 (35%) of 139 countries recommended primary HPV-based screening. Visual inspection with acetic acid was the most recommended test in resource-limited settings. Estimated worldwide coverage in women aged 30-49 years in 2019 was 15% in the previous year, 28% in the previous 3 years, and 32% in the previous 5 years, and 36% ever in lifetime. An estimated 1·6 billion (67%) of 2·3 billion women aged 20-70 years, including 662 million (64%) of 1·0 billion women aged 30-49 years, had never been screened for cervical cancer. 133 million (84%) of 158 million women aged 30-49 years living in high-income countries had been screened ever in lifetime, compared with 194 million (48%) of 404 million women in upper-middle-income countries, 34 million (9%) of 397 million women in lower-middle-income countries, and 8 million (11%) of 74 million in low-income countries. INTERPRETATION: Two in three women aged 30-49 years have never been screened for cervical cancer. Roll-out of screening is very low in low-income and middle-income countries, where the burden of disease is highest. The priority of the WHO elimination campaign should be to increase both screening coverage and treatment of detected lesions; however, expanding the efforts of surveillance systems in both coverage and quality control are major challenges to achieving the WHO elimination target. FUNDING: Instituto de Salud Carlos III, European Regional Development Fund, Secretariat for Universities and Research of the Department of Business and Knowledge of the Government of Catalonia, and Horizon 2020. TRANSLATIONS: For the French, Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.