Regularized parametric survival modeling to improve risk prediction models.

We propose to combine the benefits of flexible parametric survival modeling and regularization to improve risk prediction modeling in the context of time-to-event data. Thereto, we introduce ridge, lasso, elastic net, and group lasso penalties for both log hazard and log cumulative hazard models. The log (cumulative) hazard in these models is represented by a flexible function of time that may depend on the covariates (i.e., covariate effects may be time-varying). We show that the optimization problem for the proposed models can be formulated as a convex optimization problem and provide a user-friendly R implementation for model fitting and penalty parameter selection based on cross-validation. Simulation study results show the advantage of regularization in terms of increased out-of-sample prediction accuracy and improved calibration and discrimination of predicted survival probabilities, especially when sample size was relatively small with respect to model complexity. An applied example illustrates the proposed methods. In summary, our work provides both a foundation for and an easily accessible implementation of regularized parametric survival modeling and suggests that it improves out-of-sample prediction performance.

External validation of prognostic models to predict stillbirth using International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) Network database: individual participant data meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Stillbirth is a potentially preventable complication of pregnancy. Identifying women at high risk of stillbirth can guide decisions on the need for closer surveillance and timing of delivery in order to prevent fetal death. Prognostic models have been developed to predict the risk of stillbirth, but none has yet been validated externally. In this study, we externally validated published prediction models for stillbirth using individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis to assess their predictive performance. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, DH-DATA and AMED databases were searched from inception to December 2020 to identify studies reporting stillbirth prediction models. Studies that developed or updated prediction models for stillbirth for use at any time during pregnancy were included. IPD from cohorts within the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) Network were used to validate externally the identified prediction models whose individual variables were available in the IPD. The risk of bias of the models and cohorts was assessed using the Prediction study Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). The discriminative performance of the models was evaluated using the C-statistic, and calibration was assessed using calibration plots, calibration slope and calibration-in-the-large. Performance measures were estimated separately in each cohort, as well as summarized across cohorts using random-effects meta-analysis. Clinical utility was assessed using net benefit. RESULTS: Seventeen studies reporting the development of 40 prognostic models for stillbirth were identified. None of the models had been previously validated externally, and the full model equation was reported for only one-fifth (20%, 8/40) of the models. External validation was possible for three of these models, using IPD from 19 cohorts (491 201 pregnant women) within the IPPIC Network database. Based on evaluation of the model development studies, all three models had an overall high risk of bias, according to PROBAST. In the IPD meta-analysis, the models had summary C-statistics ranging from 0.53 to 0.65 and summary calibration slopes ranging from 0.40 to 0.88, with risk predictions that were generally too extreme compared with the observed risks. The models had little to no clinical utility, as assessed by net benefit. However, there remained uncertainty in the performance of some models due to small available sample sizes. CONCLUSIONS: The three validated stillbirth prediction models showed generally poor and uncertain predictive performance in new data, with limited evidence to support their clinical application. The findings suggest methodological shortcomings in their development, including overfitting. Further research is needed to further validate these and other models, identify stronger prognostic factors and develop more robust prediction models. © 2021 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Can risk prediction models help us individualise stillbirth prevention? A systematic review and critical appraisal of published risk models.

BACKGROUND: Stillbirth prevention is an international priority - risk prediction models could individualise care and reduce unnecessary intervention, but their use requires evaluation. OBJECTIVES: To identify risk prediction models for stillbirth, and assess their potential accuracy and clinical benefit in practice. SEARCH STRATEGY: MEDLINE, Embase, DH-DATA and AMED databases were searched from inception to June 2019 using terms relevant to stillbirth, perinatal mortality and prediction models. The search was compliant with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. SELECTION CRITERIA: Studies developing and/or validating prediction models for risk of stillbirth developed for application during pregnancy. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Study screening and data extraction were conducted in duplicate, using the CHARMS checklist. Risk of bias was appraised using the PROBAST tool. RESULTS: The search identified 2751 citations. Fourteen studies reporting development of 69 models were included. Variables consistently included were: ethnicity, body mass index, uterine artery Doppler, pregnancy-associated plasma protein and placental growth factor. For almost all models there were significant concerns about risk of bias. Apparent model performance (i.e. in the development dataset) was highest in models developed for use later in pregnancy and including maternal characteristics, and ultrasound and biochemical variables, but few were internally validated and none were externally validated. CONCLUSIONS: Almost all models identified were at high risk of bias. There are first-trimester models of possible clinical benefit in early risk stratification; these require validation and clinical evaluation. There were few later pregnancy models but, if validated, these could be most relevant to individualised discussions around timing of birth. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Prediction models using maternal factors, blood tests and ultrasound could individualise stillbirth prevention, but existing models are at high risk of bias.

Random-effects meta-analysis of the clinical utility of tests and prediction models.

The use of data from multiple studies or centers for the validation of a clinical test or a multivariable prediction model allows researchers to investigate the test's/model's performance in multiple settings and populations. Recently, meta-analytic techniques have been proposed to summarize discrimination and calibration across study populations. Here, we rather consider performance in terms of net benefit, which is a measure of clinical utility that weighs the benefits of true positive classifications against the harms of false positives. We posit that it is important to examine clinical utility across multiple settings of interest. This requires a suitable meta-analysis method, and we propose a Bayesian trivariate random-effects meta-analysis of sensitivity, specificity, and prevalence. Across a range of chosen harm-to-benefit ratios, this provides a summary measure of net benefit, a prediction interval, and an estimate of the probability that the test/model is clinically useful in a new setting. In addition, the prediction interval and probability of usefulness can be calculated conditional on the known prevalence in a new setting. The proposed methods are illustrated by 2 case studies: one on the meta-analysis of published studies on ear thermometry to diagnose fever in children and one on the validation of a multivariable clinical risk prediction model for the diagnosis of ovarian cancer in a multicenter dataset. Crucially, in both case studies the clinical utility of the test/model was heterogeneous across settings, limiting its usefulness in practice. This emphasizes that heterogeneity in clinical utility should be assessed before a test/model is routinely implemented.

When is birthweight at term (≥37 weeks' gestation) abnormally low? A systematic review and meta-analysis of the prognostic and predictive ability of current birthweight standards for childhood and adult outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Health outcomes throughout the life course have been linked to fetal growth restriction and low birthweight. A variety of measures exist to define low birthweight, with a lack of consensus regarding which predict adverse outcome. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the relationship between birthweight standards and childhood and adult outcomes in term-born infants (≥37 weeks' gestation). SEARCH STRATEGY: MEDLINE (1966-January 2011), EMBASE (1980-January 2011), and the Cochrane Library (2011:1) and MEDION were included. SELECTION CRITERIA: Studies comprising live term-born infants (gestation ≥37 completed weeks), with weight or other anthropometric measurements recorded at birth along with childhood and adult outcomes. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Data were extracted to populate 2 × 2 tables relating birthweight standard with outcome, and meta-analysis was performed where possible. MAIN RESULTS: Fifty-nine articles (2 600 383 individuals) were selected. There was no significant relationship between birthweight <2.5 kg (odds ratio [OR] 0.98, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.87-1.10) and composite measure of childhood morbidity. Weight <10th centile on the population nomogram showed a small association (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.02-2.19) for the same outcome. There was no significant association between either of the above measures and adult morbidity. The relationship between other measures and individual outcomes varied. AUTHOR'S CONCLUSIONS: The association between low birthweight, by any definition, and childhood and adult morbidity was inconsistent. None of the current standards of low birthweight was a good predictor of adverse outcome.

Association and prediction of amniotic fluid measurements for adverse pregnancy outcome: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Measurements of amniotic fluid volume are used for pregnancy surveillance despite a lack of evidence for their predictive ability. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association and predictive value of ultrasound measurements of amniotic fluid volume for adverse pregnancy outcome. SEARCH STRATEGY: Electronic databases (inception to October 2011), reference lists, hand searching of journals, contact with experts. SELECTION CRITERIA: Studies comparing measurements of amniotic fluid volume with adverse outcome, excluding pre-labour ruptured membranes or congenital/structural anomalies. DATA COLLECTION: Data on study characteristics, design, quality. Random effects meta-analysis to estimate summary odds ratios (prognostic association) and summary sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios (predictive ability). MAIN RESULTS: Forty-three studies (244,493 fetuses) were included demonstrating a strong association between oligohydramnios (varying definitions) and birthweight <10th centile (summary odds ratio [OR] 6.31, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 4.15-9.58; high-risk population [author definition] n = 6 studies, 28,510 fetuses), and mortality (neonatal death any population summary OR 8.72, 95% CI 2.43-31.26; n = 6 studies, 55,735 fetuses; and perinatal mortality high-risk population summary OR 11.54, 95% CI 4.05-32.9; n = 2 studies, 27;891 fetuses). There was a strong association between polyhydramnios (maximum pool depth >8 cm or amniotic fluid index ≥25 cm) and birthweight >90th centile (OR 11.41, 95% CI 7.09-18.36; n = 1 study, 3960 fetuses). Despite strong associations, predictive accuracy for perinatal outcome was poor. AUTHOR'S CONCLUSION: Current evidence suggests that oligohydramnios is strongly associated with being small for gestational age and mortality, and polyhydramnios with birthweight >90th centile. Despite strong associations with poor outcome, they do not accurately predict outcome risk for individuals.

Accuracy of Vitalograph lung monitor as a screening test for COPD in primary care.

Microspirometry may be useful as the second stage of a screening pathway among patients reporting respiratory symptoms. We assessed sensitivity and specificity of the Vitalograph® lung monitor compared with post-bronchodilator confirmatory spirometry (ndd Easy on-PC) among primary care chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients within the Birmingham COPD cohort. We report a case-control analysis within 71 general practices in the UK. Eligible patients were aged ≥40 years who were either on a clinical COPD register or reported chronic respiratory symptoms on a questionnaire. Participants performed pre- and post-bronchodilator microspirometry, prior to confirmatory spirometry. Out of the 544 participants, COPD was confirmed in 337 according to post-bronchodilator confirmatory spirometry. Pre-bronchodilator, using the LLN as a cut-point, the lung monitor had a sensitivity of 50.5% (95% CI 45.0%, 55.9%) and a specificity of 99.0% (95% CI 96.6%, 99.9%) in our sample. Using a fixed ratio of FEV1/FEV6 < 0.7 to define obstruction in the lung monitor, sensitivity increased (58.8%; 95% CI 53.0, 63.8) while specificity was virtually identical (98.6%; 95% CI 95.8, 99.7). Within our sample, the optimal cut-point for the lung monitor was FEV1/FEV6 < 0.78, with sensitivity of 82.8% (95% CI 78.3%, 86.7%) and specificity of 85.0% (95% CI 79.4%, 89.6%). Test performance of the lung monitor was unaffected by bronchodilation. The lung monitor could be used in primary care without a bronchodilator using a simple ratio of FEV1/FEV6 as part of a screening pathway for COPD among patients reporting respiratory symptoms.

Prognostic markers in cancer: the evolution of evidence from single studies to meta-analysis, and beyond.

In oncology, prognostic markers are clinical measures used to help elicit an individual patient's risk of a future outcome, such as recurrence of disease after primary treatment. They thus facilitate individual treatment choice and aid in patient counselling. Evidence-based results regarding prognostic markers are therefore very important to both clinicians and their patients. However, there is increasing awareness that prognostic marker studies have been neglected in the drive to improve medical research. Large protocol-driven, prospective studies are the ideal, with appropriate statistical analysis and clear, unbiased reporting of the methods used and the results obtained. Unfortunately, published prognostic studies rarely meet such standards, and systematic reviews and meta-analyses are often only able to draw attention to the paucity of good-quality evidence. We discuss how better-quality prognostic marker evidence can evolve over time from initial exploratory studies, to large protocol-driven primary studies, and then to meta-analysis or even beyond, to large prospectively planned pooled analyses and to the initiation of tumour banks. We highlight articles that facilitate each stage of this process, and that promote current guidelines aimed at improving the design, analysis, and reporting of prognostic marker research. We also outline why collaborative, multi-centre, and multi-disciplinary teams should be an essential part of future studies.

Meta-analysis of test accuracy studies using imputation for partial reporting of multiple thresholds.

INTRODUCTION: For tests reporting continuous results, primary studies usually provide test performance at multiple but often different thresholds. This creates missing data when performing a meta-analysis at each threshold. A standard meta-analysis (no imputation [NI]) ignores such missing data. A single imputation (SI) approach was recently proposed to recover missing threshold results. Here, we propose a new method that performs multiple imputation of the missing threshold results using discrete combinations (MIDC). METHODS: The new MIDC method imputes missing threshold results by randomly selecting from the set of all possible discrete combinations which lie between the results for 2 known bounding thresholds. Imputed and observed results are then synthesised at each threshold. This is repeated multiple times, and the multiple pooled results at each threshold are combined using Rubin's rules to give final estimates. We compared the NI, SI, and MIDC approaches via simulation. RESULTS: Both imputation methods outperform the NI method in simulations. There was generally little difference in the SI and MIDC methods, but the latter was noticeably better in terms of estimating the between-study variances and generally gave better coverage, due to slightly larger standard errors of pooled estimates. Given selective reporting of thresholds, the imputation methods also reduced bias in the summary receiver operating characteristic curve. Simulations demonstrate the imputation methods rely on an equal threshold spacing assumption. A real example is presented. CONCLUSIONS: The SI and, in particular, MIDC methods can be used to examine the impact of missing threshold results in meta-analysis of test accuracy studies.

Erratum to: Methods for evaluating medical tests and biomarkers.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s41512-016-0001-y.].

Multivariate meta-analysis using individual participant data.

When combining results across related studies, a multivariate meta-analysis allows the joint synthesis of correlated effect estimates from multiple outcomes. Joint synthesis can improve efficiency over separate univariate syntheses, may reduce selective outcome reporting biases, and enables joint inferences across the outcomes. A common issue is that within-study correlations needed to fit the multivariate model are unknown from published reports. However, provision of individual participant data (IPD) allows them to be calculated directly. Here, we illustrate how to use IPD to estimate within-study correlations, using a joint linear regression for multiple continuous outcomes and bootstrapping methods for binary, survival and mixed outcomes. In a meta-analysis of 10 hypertension trials, we then show how these methods enable multivariate meta-analysis to address novel clinical questions about continuous, survival and binary outcomes; treatment-covariate interactions; adjusted risk/prognostic factor effects; longitudinal data; prognostic and multiparameter models; and multiple treatment comparisons. Both frequentist and Bayesian approaches are applied, with example software code provided to derive within-study correlations and to fit the models.

A systematic review of molecular and biological markers in tumours of the Ewing's sarcoma family.

The aims of this study were to perform the first systematic review of molecular and biological tumour markers in tumours of the Ewing's sarcoma family (ESFT), and evaluate the current evidence for their clinical use. A well-defined, reproducible search strategy was used to identify the relevant literature from 1966 to February 2000. Papers were independently assessed for tumour markers used in the screening, diagnosis, prognosis or monitoring of patients with ESFT. Eighty-four papers studying the use of 70 different tumour markers in ESFT's were identified. Low-quality, inconsistent reporting limited meta-analysis to that of prognostic data for 28 markers. Patients with tumours lacking S-100 protein expression have a better overall survival (OS) (hazard ratio (HR)=0.41, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.19, 0.89) than those with expression; patients with high levels of serum LDH had a worse OS and disease-free survival (DFS) (OS: HR=2.92, CI 2.16, 3.94, DFS: HR=3.38, 95% CI 2.28, 4.99); patients with localised disease and tumours expressing type 1 EWS-FLI1 fusion transcripts had an improved DFS compared with those with other fusion transcript types (HR=0.17, 95% CI 0.079, 0.37). The knowledge base formed should facilitate more informative future research. Improved statistical reporting and large, multicentre prospective studies are advocated.

Basal nitric oxide expresses endogenous cardioprotection during reperfusion by inhibition of neutrophil-mediated damage after surgical revascularization.

Ischemia-reperfusion damages endothelium and impairs basal production of nitric oxide. Basally released nitric oxide is cardioprotective by its inhibition of neutrophil activities. Loss of endogenous nitric oxide with endothelial injury may occur during two phases: cardioplegic ischemia and reperfusion (aortic declamping). This study tested the hypothesis that inhibition of endogenously released nitric oxide in hearts subjected to regional ischemia, cardioplegic arrest, and reperfusion (1) restricts endogenous cardioprotection and permits neutrophil-mediated damage and (2) expresses damage during the reperfusion phase. L-Nitro-arginine was used to block basal nitric oxide production. In 22 anesthetized dogs, the left anterior descending artery was ligated for 90 minutes followed by 1 hour of arrest with cold multidose (every 20 minutes) blood cardioplegia. Dogs were divided into three groups: the first group received standard unsupplemented blood cardioplegia (group 1, n = 8), in the second group L-nitro-arginine was administered as an additive to blood cardioplegic solution (1 mmol) and as an infusion during reperfusion (34 mg/kg) (group 2, n = 7), and in the third group L-nitro-arginine was administered only at reperfusion (group 3, n = 7). The ligature was released during the second infusion of cardioplegic solution. Infarct size (triphenyltetrazolium chloride) was increased in group 3 (L-nitro-arginine only at reperfusion) compared with that in group 1 (standard blood cardioplegia) (49% +/- 6% vs 34% +/- 2%, respectively), but was not further extended in group 2 (L-nitro-arginine as an additive to blood cardioplegic solution and at reperfusion) (56% +/- 3%, p > 0.05 vs group 3), which suggests primarily a reperfusion process. Polymorphonuclear neutrophil-specific myeloperoxidase activity in the area at risk was elevated comparably in groups 2 and 3 (group 2: 2.9 +/- 0.5 units/gm tissue, p = 0.06 vs group 1; group 3: 3.9 +/- 1.0 units/gm tissue, p < 0.05 vs group 1) compared with that in the standard blood cardioplegia group (1.7 +/- 0.3 units/gm tissue), suggesting polymorphonuclear neutrophil accumulation occurs primarily during reperfusion. Polymorphonuclear neutrophil adherence in ischemic-reperfused left anterior descending artery segments was comparably greater in group 2 (L-nitro-arginine as an additive to blood cardioplegic solution and at reperfusion: 195 +/- 21 polymorphonuclear neutrophils/mm2 of artery, p < 0.05 vs group 1) and group 3 (L-nitro-arginine only at reperfusion: 224 +/- 20 polymorphonuclear neutrophils/mm2 of artery, p < 0.05 vs group 1) relative to that in group 1 (108 +/- 19 polymorphonuclear neutrophils/mm2 of artery). There was no significant adherence to nonischemic circumflex arteries. We conclude that blockade of endogenous nitric oxide augments postischemic injury mediated by polymorphonuclear neutrophils, and this damage is expressed primarily during the reperfusion phase.

Recombinant human complement C5a receptor antagonist reduces infarct size after surgical revascularization.

OBJECTIVES: This study tested the hypothesis that a recombinant human C5a antagonist, CGS 32359, attenuates neutrophil activation and reduces infarct size in a porcine model of surgical revascularization. METHODS: CGS 32359 (0.16-16 micromol/L) dose-dependently inhibited superoxide production by human C5a-activated porcine neutrophils (18 +/- 3.7 vs 1.6 +/- 0.5 nmol/5 min/5 x 10(6) neutrophils; P <.05) and reduced neutrophil adherence to coronary endothelium from 194 +/- 9 to 43 +/- 6 neutrophils/mm(2) (P <.05). The left anterior descending coronary artery was occluded for 50 minutes, after which saline solution (n = 8), mannitol-buffer vehicle (n = 9, 102 mg/kg bolus, 102 mg. kg(-1). h(-1)), or CGS 32359 (CGS, n = 7, 60 mg/kg bolus, 60 mg. kg(-1). h(-1)) was infused. After ischemia, 1-hour arrest was achieved by means of multidose hypothermic (4 degrees C) blood cardioplegia, followed by 2.5 hours of off-bypass reperfusion. The ligature on the left anterior descending artery was released before the second infusion of cardioplegic solution. RESULTS: Area at risk was similar in all groups (saline solution, 27% +/- 2%; mannitol-buffer vehicle, 26% +/- 2%; CGS, 26% +/- 2% left ventricular mass). Infarct size (area necrosis/area at risk) was significantly reduced by CGS (18% +/- 6%, P <.05) versus saline solution (52% +/- 3%) and mannitol-buffer vehicle (60% +/- 4%). Postischemic systolic shortening (sonomicrometry) in the area at risk was significantly improved with CGS (0.8% +/- 0.9%) compared with saline solution (-3.7% +/- 1.1%) and mannitol-buffer vehicle (-6.4% +/- 1.0%). Myeloperoxidase activity from accumulated neutrophils was less in the ischemic zone of CGS (0.014 +/- 0.002 U/100 mg tissue; P <.05) than mannitol-buffer vehicle (0.133 +/- 0.012 U/100 mg tissue). CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the recombinant human C5a receptor antagonist CGS 32359 inhibits surgical ischemia-reperfusion injury after coronary occlusion.

Stentless aortic valve replacement with Freestyle or Toronto SPV: an early comparison.

BACKGROUND: Stentless aortic xenograft valves have been developed to overcome the disadvantages of conventional stented prostheses. We have implanted two new aortic bioprostheses: the Medtronic Freestyle and the St. Jude Toronto SPV. Early results are compared. METHODS: Forty-four Freestyle valves were implanted using a freestanding total root technique. Fourteen subcoronary Toronto SPV bioprostheses were implanted. Sixty-four percent of both groups (28 of 44 Freestyle and 9 of 14 Toronto SPV) underwent concurrent procedures. RESULTS: Ischemic time was 117 +/- 21 minutes for Freestyle and 124 +/- 19 minutes for Toronto SPV. There were no operative deaths or valve-related reoperations. Aortic valve area was 1.83 +/- 0.51 cm2 for Freestyle and 1.80 +/- 0.51 cm2 (p = 0.89) for Toronto SPV. Transvalvular gradient was 8.03 +/- 4.09 mm Hg for Freestyle and 12.4 +/- 1.82 mm Hg (p = 0.002) for the Toronto SPV. Aortic regurgitation was not experienced in any Freestyle patients, while Toronto SPV patients were graded as none to trace 79% (11 of 14), mild 14% (2 of 14), and moderate 7% (1 of 14). CONCLUSIONS: Aortic valve replacement with the Freestyle and Toronto SPV required equal time for implantation and had equal effective orifice areas. Freestyle had lower transvalvular gradient and less aortic insufficiency without increasing morbidity or mortality.

Mediastinal impalement with survival: a case report.

Mediastinal impalement injuries are rare and often fatal. Very few instances of survival after mediastinal impalement have been reported. We present the unusual case of an 18-year-old man who was involved in a motor vehicle crash in which a wooden fencepost intruded through the windshield and impaled him through the superior mediastinum. The patient remained hemodynamically stable and had no other significant injuries except a left pneumothorax. Arteriogram revealed a bovine aortic arch with the wooden piece passing over the aortic arch between the two brachiocephalic arteries at the precise point that a normal left common carotid artery would have been located. No other injuries were seen on arteriogram, venogram, or esophagram. The foreign body was extracted via thoracotomy along with resection of the apex of the left lung and ligation of the thoracic duct. The patient was discharged on hospital day eight and was doing quite well at one-year follow-up with no residual effects of his accident.

Diagnostic accuracy of spot urinary protein and albumin to creatinine ratios for detection of significant proteinuria or adverse pregnancy outcome in patients with suspected pre-eclampsia: systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of two "spot urine" tests for significant proteinuria or adverse pregnancy outcome in pregnant women with suspected pre-eclampsia. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: Searches of electronic databases 1980 to January 2011, reference list checking, hand searching of journals, and contact with experts. INCLUSION CRITERIA: Diagnostic studies, in pregnant women with hypertension, that compared the urinary spot protein to creatinine ratio or albumin to creatinine ratio with urinary protein excretion over 24 hours or adverse pregnancy outcome. Study characteristics, design, and methodological and reporting quality were objectively assessed. DATA EXTRACTION: Study results relating to diagnostic accuracy were extracted and synthesised using multivariate random effects meta-analysis methods. RESULTS: Twenty studies, testing 2978 women (pregnancies), were included. Thirteen studies examining protein to creatinine ratio for the detection of significant proteinuria were included in the multivariate analysis. Threshold values for protein to creatinine ratio ranged between 0.13 and 0.5, with estimates of sensitivity ranging from 0.65 to 0.89 and estimates of specificity from 0.63 to 0.87; the area under the summary receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.69. On average, across all studies, the optimum threshold (that optimises sensitivity and specificity combined) seems to be between 0.30 and 0.35 inclusive. However, no threshold gave a summary estimate above 80% for both sensitivity and specificity, and considerable heterogeneity existed in diagnostic accuracy across studies at most thresholds. No studies looked at protein to creatinine ratio and adverse pregnancy outcome. For albumin to creatinine ratio, meta-analysis was not possible. Results from a single study suggested that the most predictive result, for significant proteinuria, was with the DCA 2000 quantitative analyser (>2 mg/mmol) with a summary sensitivity of 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.86 to 0.98) and a specificity of 0.94 (0.87 to 0.98). In a single study of adverse pregnancy outcome, results for perinatal death were a sensitivity of 0.82 (0.48 to 0.98) and a specificity of 0.59 (0.51 to 0.67). CONCLUSION: The maternal "spot urine" estimate of protein to creatinine ratio shows promising diagnostic value for significant proteinuria in suspected pre-eclampsia. The existing evidence is not, however, sufficient to determine how protein to creatinine ratio should be used in clinical practice, owing to the heterogeneity in test accuracy and prevalence across studies. Insufficient evidence is available on the use of albumin to creatinine ratio in this area. Insufficient evidence exists for either test to predict adverse pregnancy outcome.

Mortality and implant revision rates of hip arthroplasty in patients with osteoarthritis: registry based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine mortality and revision rates among patients with osteoarthritis undergoing hip arthroplasty and to compare these rates between patients undergoing cemented or uncemented procedures and to compare outcomes between men undergoing stemmed total hip replacements and Birmingham hip resurfacing. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: National Joint Registry. POPULATION: About 275,000 patient records. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Hip arthroplasty procedures were linked to the time to any subsequent mortality or revision (implant failure). Flexible parametric survival analysis methods were used to analyse time to mortality and also time to revision. Comparisons between procedure groups were adjusted for age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, and complexity. RESULTS: As there were large baseline differences in the characteristics of patients receiving cemented, uncemented, or resurfacing procedures, unadjusted comparisons are inappropriate. Multivariable survival analyses identified a higher mortality rate for patients undergoing cemented compared with uncemented total hip replacement (adjusted hazard ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval 1.07 to 1.16); conversely, there was a lower revision rate with cemented procedures (0.53, 0.50 to 0.57). These translate to small predicted differences in population averaged absolute survival probability at all time points. For example, compared with the uncemented group, at eight years after surgery the predicted probability of death in the cemented group was 0.013 higher (0.007 to 0.019) and the predicted probability of revision was 0.015 lower (0.012 to 0.017). In multivariable analyses restricted to men, there was a higher mortality rate in the cemented group and the uncemented group compared with the Birmingham hip resurfacing group. In terms of revision, the Birmingham hip resurfacings had a similar revision rate to uncemented total hip replacements. Both uncemented total hip replacements and Birmingham hip resurfacings had a higher revision rate than cemented total hip replacements. CONCLUSIONS: There is a small but significant increased risk of revision with uncemented rather than cemented total hip replacement, and a small but significant increased risk of death with cemented procedures. It is not known whether these are causal relations or caused by residual confounding. Compared with uncemented and cemented total hip replacements, Birmingham hip resurfacing has a significantly lower risk of death in men of all ages. Previously, only adjusted analyses of hip implant revision rates have been used to recommend and justify use of cheaper cemented total hip implants. Our investigations additionally consider mortality rates and suggest a potentially higher mortality rate with cemented total hip replacements, which merits further investigation.