Factors shaping the COVID-19 epidemic curve: a multi-country analysis.

BACKGROUND: Lockdown measures are the backbone of containment measures for the COVID-19 pandemic both in high-income countries (HICs) and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, in view of the inevitably-occurring second and third global covid-19 wave, assessing the success and impact of containment measures on the epidemic curve of COVID-19 and people's compliance with such measures is crucial for more effective policies. To determine the containment measures influencing the COVID-19 epidemic curve in nine targeted countries across high-, middle-, and low-income nations. METHODS: Four HICs (Germany, Sweden, Italy, and South Korea) and five LMICs (Mexico, Colombia, India, Nigeria, and Nepal) were selected to assess the association using interrupted time series analysis of daily case numbers and deaths of COVID-19 considering the following factors: The "stringency index (SI)" indicating how tight the containment measures were implemented in each country; and the level of compliance with the prescribed measures using human mobility data. Additionally, a scoping review was conducted to contextualize the findings. RESULTS: Most countries implemented quite rigorous lockdown measures, particularly the LMICs (India, Nepal, and Colombia) following the model of HICs (Germany and Italy). Exceptions were Sweden and South Korea, which opted for different strategies. The compliance with the restrictions-measured as mobility related to home office, restraining from leisure activities, non-use of local transport and others-was generally good, except in Sweden and South Korea where the restrictions were limited. The endemic curves and time-series analysis showed that the containment measures were successful in HICs but not in LMICs. CONCLUSION: The imposed lockdown measures are alarming, particularly in resource-constrained settings where such measures are independent of the population segment, which drives the virus transmission. Methods for examining people's movements or hardships that are caused by covid- no work, no food situation are inequitable. Novel and context-adapted approach of dealing with the COVID-19 crisis are therefore crucial.

WhatsApp-based intervention in urban Colombia to support the prevention of arboviral diseases: a feasibility study.

Arboviral diseases remain a significant health concern worldwide, with over half the world's population at risk for dengue alone. Without a vaccine or targeted treatment, the most effective strategy of prevention is vector management with community involvement. mHealth interventions, like WhatsApp, offer promising results for engaging communities and promoting healthier behaviors. This study explores the feasibility of integrating WhatsApp in vector control activities to improve arbovirus prevention in Colombia. A mixed-methods approach was employed to assess the WhatsApp-based intervention. WhatsApp messages were sent to 45 community women for 5 weeks to increase their knowledge and practices about dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. Pre-and-post surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in community settings to measure the feasibility and acceptability of this intervention. Chat reviews were done to assess the usability of users. A total of 1566 messages were exchanged in 45 WhatsApp chats. High acceptance and good usability (82% of users used the app for replying) were reported in this study. WhatsApp messages were perceived as short, clear, and enjoyable. Users liked the frequency, and design of messages. Pre- and post-surveys demonstrated improvements in the knowledge and practices of arboviral diseases. The intention to apply this knowledge in practice was reflected in a significant improvement, particularly in cleaning the laundry tank once a week (pre 62.1% to post 89.6%, p < 0.008). This study suggests that using WhatsApp as an additional tool could be a feasible, acceptable, and affordable strategy for improving the adoption of better practices in the prevention of arboviral diseases.

Early warning systems (EWSs) for chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika outbreaks: What is the evidence? A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Early warning systems (EWSs) are of increasing importance in the context of outbreak-prone diseases such as chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika. A scoping review has been undertaken for all 5 diseases to summarize existing evidence of EWS tools in terms of their structural and statistical designs, feasibility of integration and implementation into national surveillance programs, and the users' perspective of their applications. METHODS: Data were extracted from Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR), Google Scholar, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), PubMed, Web of Science, and WHO Library Database (WHOLIS) databases until August 2019. Included were studies reporting on (a) experiences with existing EWS, including implemented tools; and (b) the development or implementation of EWS in a particular setting. No restrictions were applied regarding year of publication, language or geographical area. FINDINGS: Through the first screening, 11,710 documents for dengue, 2,757 for Zika, 2,706 for chikungunya, 24,611 for malaria, and 4,963 for yellow fever were identified. After applying the selection criteria, a total of 37 studies were included in this review. Key findings were the following: (1) a large number of studies showed the quality performance of their prediction models but except for dengue outbreaks, only few presented statistical prediction validity of EWS; (2) while entomological, epidemiological, and social media alarm indicators are potentially useful for outbreak warning, almost all studies focus primarily or exclusively on meteorological indicators, which tends to limit the prediction capacity; (3) no assessment of the integration of the EWS into a routine surveillance system could be found, and only few studies addressed the users' perspective of the tool; (4) almost all EWS tools require highly skilled users with advanced statistics; and (5) spatial prediction remains a limitation with no tool currently able to map high transmission areas at small spatial level. CONCLUSIONS: In view of the escalating infectious diseases as global threats, gaps and challenges are significantly present within the EWS applications. While some advanced EWS showed high prediction abilities, the scarcity of tool assessments in terms of integration into existing national surveillance systems as well as of the feasibility of transforming model outputs into local vector control or action plans tends to limit in most cases the support of countries in controlling disease outbreaks.