Tropospheric winds from northeastern China carry the etiologic agent of Kawasaki disease from its source to Japan.

Evidence indicates that the densely cultivated region of northeastern China acts as a source for the wind-borne agent of Kawasaki disease (KD). KD is an acute, coronary artery vasculitis of young children, and still a medical mystery after more than 40 y. We used residence times from simulations with the flexible particle dispersion model to pinpoint the source region for KD. Simulations were generated from locations spanning Japan from days with either high or low KD incidence. The postepidemic interval (1987-2010) and the extreme epidemics (1979, 1982, and 1986) pointed to the same source region. Results suggest a very short incubation period (<24 h) from exposure, thus making an infectious agent unlikely. Sampling campaigns over Japan during the KD season detected major differences in the microbiota of the tropospheric aerosols compared with ground aerosols, with the unexpected finding of the Candida species as the dominant fungus from aloft samples (54% of all fungal strains). These results, consistent with the Candida animal model for KD, provide support for the concept and feasibility of a windborne pathogen. A fungal toxin could be pursued as a possible etiologic agent of KD, consistent with an agricultural source, a short incubation time and synchronized outbreaks. Our study suggests that the causative agent of KD is a preformed toxin or environmental agent rather than an organism requiring replication. We propose a new paradigm whereby an idiosyncratic immune response, influenced by host genetics triggered by an environmental exposure carried on winds, results in the clinical syndrome known as acute KD.

Listening in on difficult conversations: an observational, multi-center investigation of real-time conversations in medical oncology.

BACKGROUND: The quality of communication in medical care has been shown to influence health outcomes. Cancer patients, a highly diverse population, communicate with their clinical care team in diverse ways over the course of their care trajectory. Whether that communication happens and how effective it is may relate to a variety of factors including the type of cancer and the patient's position on the cancer care continuum. Yet, many of the routine needs of cancer patients after initial cancer treatment are often not addressed adequately. Our goal is to identify areas of strength and areas for improvement in cancer communication by investigating real-time cancer consultations in a cross section of patient-clinician interactions at diverse study sites. METHODS/DESIGN: In this paper we describe the rationale and approach for an ongoing observational study involving three institutions that will utilize quantitative and qualitative methods and employ a short-term longitudinal, prospective follow-up component to investigate decision-making, key topics, and clinician-patient-companion communication dynamics in clinical oncology. DISCUSSION: Through a comprehensive, real-time approach, we hope to provide the fundamental groundwork from which to promote improved patient-centered communication in cancer care.

Spatial dynamics of airborne infectious diseases.

Disease outbreaks, such as those of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in 2003 and the 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza, have highlighted the potential for airborne transmission in indoor environments. Respirable pathogen-carrying droplets provide a vector for the spatial spread of infection with droplet transport determined by diffusive and convective processes. An epidemiological model describing the spatial dynamics of disease transmission is presented. The effects of an ambient airflow, as an infection control, are incorporated leading to a delay equation, with droplet density dependent on the infectious density at a previous time. It is found that small droplets (∼0.4µm) generate a negligible infectious force due to the small viral load and the associated duration they require to transmit infection. In contrast, larger droplets (∼4µm) can lead to an infectious wave propagating through a fully susceptible population or a secondary infection outbreak for a localized susceptible population. Droplet diffusion is found to be an inefficient mode of droplet transport leading to minimal spatial spread of infection. A threshold air velocity is derived, above which disease transmission is impaired even when the basic reproduction number R(0) exceeds unity.

The Effects and Costs of Personalized Budgets for People with Disabilities: A Systematic Review.

This article reviews the peer-reviewed and grey literature published from January 1985 to November 2022 that has quantitatively evaluated the effects of personalized budgets for people with disabilities (PwDs), in terms of a range of benefit and cost outcomes. Benefit metrics of interest comprised measures of well-being, service satisfaction and use, quality of life, health, and unmet needs. A search was conducted using the PsycINFO, MEDLINE, CINAHL, ASSIA, and Social Care Online databases. Based on inclusion criteria and a quality assessment using the Downs and Black Checklist, a final count of 23 studies were identified for in-depth review. Given the heterogeneous nature of the studies, a narrative synthesis, rather than a formal meta-analysis, was undertaken. Taking the relatively scarce and often methodologically limited evidence base at face value, the findings suggest that-overall-personalized budget users tend to benefit in terms of well-being and service satisfaction outcomes, with the exception of mixed effects for people with mental health conditions. Only a minority of studies have investigated the cost-effectiveness or costs-only of personalized budgets, finding mixed results. Two out of the three cost-effectiveness studies find personal budgets to be more cost-effective than alternative options, meaning that the possibly higher costs of personalized budgets may be more than outweighed by additional benefits. Some evidence looking at service use and/or costs only also points to significant reductions in certain service use areas, which at least hints at the potential that personalized budgeting may-in some cases-entail reduced costs. Further research is needed to explore the generalizability of these conclusions and to better capture and understand the factors driving the observed heterogeneity in some of the results.

The ineligibility of food products from across the EU for marketing to children according to two EU-level nutrient profile models.

BACKGROUND: A variety of nutrient profiling models have been developed to restrict food marketing to children. Previous assessments have shown substantial differences in terms of model strictness and agreement, but EU-wide data on how leading products in the various national markets perform against these health-minded nutrition criteria are unavailable. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the nutritional composition of the pre-packaged food offer in selected categories sold at scale in the EU using criteria of two nutrient profile models intended to restrict food marketing to children. METHODS: The nutrient profile models of the private-sector EU Pledge and of the World Health Organization's Regional Office for Europe were applied to a commercial database with sales and nutritional information of 2691 pre-packaged products from five product categories (breakfast cereals, ready meals, processed meat, processed seafood, and yoghurts) and 20 EU countries. This study describes the criteria not met, the product ineligibility rates, and the distances to the various criteria thresholds. FINDINGS: Between 48% (EU Pledge) and 68% (WHO Europe) of the 2691 products analysed were found to be ineligible for marketing to children. The criteria thresholds most often not met were those for total sugars (in breakfast cereals, yoghurts), salt (in processed meat, processed seafood, ready meals), and fibre (in breakfast cereals). Total and saturated fat criteria also played a substantial role in rendering yoghurt products ineligible, and the energy criterion did so for ready meals. INTERPRETATION: A large number of food products selling at scale in the EU do not meet the criteria of two EU-level nutrient profile models intended to restrict food marketing to children. Given the considerable market share of many such products, they are likely to be consumed widely and in some cases regularly, including by children, even without being marketed to them. Nutrient profile models could serve as benchmarking tools for monitoring and evaluating food product reformulation efforts.

Should Researchers Offer Results to Family Members of Cancer Biobank Participants? A Mixed-Methods Study of Proband and Family Preferences.

BACKGROUND: Genomic analysis may reveal both primary and secondary findings with direct relevance to the health of probands' biological relatives. Researchers question their obligations to return findings not only to participants but also to family members. Given the social value of privacy protection, should researchers offer a proband's results to family members, including after the proband's death? METHODS: Preferences were elicited using interviews and a survey. Respondents included probands from two pancreatic cancer research resources, plus biological and nonbiological family members. Hypothetical scenarios based on actual research findings from the two cancer research resources were presented; participants were asked return of results preferences and justifications. Interview transcripts were coded and analyzed; survey data were analyzed descriptively. RESULTS: Fifty-one individuals (17 probands, 21 biological relatives, 13 spouses/partners) were interviewed. Subsequently, a mailed survey was returned by 464 probands, 1,040 biological family members, and 399 spouses/partners. This analysis highlights the interviews, augmented by survey findings. Probands and family members attribute great predictive power and lifesaving potential to genomic information. A majority hold that a proband's genomic results relevant to family members' health ought to be offered. While informants endorse each individual's choice whether to learn results, most express a strong moral responsibility to know and to share, particularly with the younger generation. Most have few concerns about sharing genetic information within the family; rather, their concerns focus on the health consequences of not sharing. CONCLUSIONS: Although additional studies in diverse populations are needed, policies governing return of genomic results should consider how families understand genomic data, how they value confidentiality within the family, and whether they endorse an ethics of sharing. A focus on respect for individual privacy-without attention to how the broad social and cultural context shapes preferences within families-cannot be the sole foundation of policy.

Attitudes Toward Return of Genetic Research Results to Relatives, Including After Death: Comparison of Cancer Probands, Blood Relatives, and Spouse/Partners.

Genetic research generates results with implications for relatives. Recommendations addressing relatives' access to a participant's genetic research findings include eliciting participant preferences about access and choosing a representative to make decisions about access upon participant incapacity/death. Representatives are likely to be blood relatives or spouse/partners (who may share genetically related children). This raises the question of whether relatives hold similar attitudes about access or divergent attitudes that may yield conflict. We surveyed pancreatic cancer biobank participants (probands) and relatives in a family registry (blood relatives and spouse/partners of probands); 1,903 (>55%) surveys were returned. Results revealed few attitudinal differences between the groups. A slightly higher proportion of blood relatives agreed with statements reflecting proband privacy. In conclusion, probands' decisions on access are likely to be accepted by relatives; in choosing a representative, probands may not face major differences in attitudes about privacy/sharing between a blood relative and a spouse/partner.

Preferences Regarding Return of Genomic Results to Relatives of Research Participants, Including after Participant Death: Empirical Results from a Cancer Biobank.

Data are lacking with regard to participants' perspectives on return of genetic research results to relatives, including after the participant's death. This paper reports descriptive results from 3,630 survey respondents: 464 participants in a pancreatic cancer biobank, 1,439 family registry participants, and 1,727 healthy individuals. Our findings indicate that most participants would feel obligated to share their results with blood relatives while alive and would want results to be shared with relatives after their death.

An agent-based model driven by tropical rainfall to understand the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of a chikungunya outbreak.

Vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, malaria and chikungunya, are increasing across their traditional ranges and continuing to infiltrate new, previously unaffected, regions. The spatio-temporal evolution of these diseases is determined by the interaction of the host and vector, which is strongly dependent on social structures and mobility patterns. We develop an agent-based model (ABM), in which each individual is explicitly represented and vector populations are linked to precipitation estimates in a tropical setting. The model is implemented on both scale-free and regular networks. The spatio-temporal transmission of chikungunya is analysed and the presence of asymptomatic silent spreaders within the population is investigated in the context of implementing travel restrictions during an outbreak. Preventing the movement of symptomatic individuals is found to be an insufficient mechanism to halt the spread of the disease, which can be readily carried to neighbouring nodes via sub-clinical individuals. Furthermore, the impact of topology structure vs. precipitation levels is assessed and precipitation is found to be the dominant factor driving spatio-temporal transmission.

A model for a chikungunya outbreak in a rural Cambodian setting: implications for disease control in uninfected areas.

Following almost 30 years of relative silence, chikungunya fever reemerged in Kenya in 2004. It subsequently spread to the islands of the Indian Ocean, reaching Southeast Asia in 2006. The virus was first detected in Cambodia in 2011 and a large outbreak occurred in the village of Trapeang Roka Kampong Speu Province in March 2012, in which 44% of the villagers had a recent infection biologically confirmed. The epidemic curve was constructed from the number of biologically-confirmed CHIKV cases per day determined from the date of fever onset, which was self-reported during a data collection campaign conducted in the village after the outbreak. All individuals participating in the campaign had infections confirmed by laboratory analysis, allowing for the identification of asymptomatic cases and those with an unreported date of fever onset. We develop a stochastic model explicitly including such cases, all of whom do not appear on the epidemic curve. We estimate the basic reproduction number of the outbreak to be 6.46 (95% C.I. [6.24, 6.78]). We show that this estimate is particularly sensitive to changes in the biting rate and mosquito longevity. Our model also indicates that the infection was more widespread within the population on the reported epidemic start date. We show that the exclusion of asymptomatic cases and cases with undocumented onset dates can lead to an underestimation of the reproduction number which, in turn, could negatively impact control strategies implemented by public health authorities. We highlight the need for properly documenting newly emerging pathogens in immunologically naive populations and the importance of identifying the route of disease introduction.

A model for the emergence of drug resistance in the presence of asymptomatic infections.

An analysis of a mathematical model, which describes the dynamics of an aerially transmitted disease, and the effects of the emergence of drug resistance after the introduction of treatment as an intervention strategy is presented. Under explicit consideration of asymptomatic and symptomatic infective individuals for the basic model without intervention the analysis shows that the dynamics of the epidemic is determined by a basic reproduction number R0. A disease-free and an endemic equilibrium exist and are locally asymptotically stable when R0<1 and R0>1 respectively. When treatment is included the system has a basic reproduction number, which is the largest of the two reproduction numbers that characterise the drug-sensitive (R1) or resistant (R2) strains of the infectious agent. The system has a disease-free equilibrium, which is stable when both R1 and R2 are less than unity. Two endemic equilibria also exist and are associated with treatment and the development of drug resistance. An endemic equilibrium where only the drug-resistant strain persists exists and is stable when R2>1 and R11 and R1>R2 and both drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains are present. The analysis of the system provides insights about the conditions under which the infection will persist and whether sensitive and resistant strains will coexist or not.

Indirect transmission and the effect of seasonal pathogen inactivation on infectious disease periodicity.

The annual occurrence of many infectious diseases remains a constant burden to public health systems. The seasonal patterns in respiratory disease incidence observed in temperate regions have been attributed to the impact of environmental conditions on pathogen survival. A model describing the transmission of an infectious disease by means of a pathogenic state capable of surviving in an environmental reservoir outside of its host organism is presented in this paper. The ratio of pathogen lifespan to the duration of the infectious disease state is found to be a critical parameter in determining disease dynamics. The introduction of a seasonally forced pathogen inactivation rate identifies a time delay between peak pathogen survival and peak disease incidence. The delay is dependent on specific disease parameters and, for influenza, decreases with increasing reproduction number. The observed seasonal oscillations are found to have a period identical to that of the seasonally forced inactivation rate and which is independent of the duration of infection acquired immunity.

Impact of direct-to-consumer predictive genomic testing on risk perception and worry among patients receiving routine care in a preventive health clinic.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of direct-to-consumer (DTC) predictive genomic risk information on perceived risk and worry in the context of routine clinical care. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients attending a preventive medicine clinic between June 1 and December 18, 2009, were randomly assigned to receive either genomic risk information from a DTC product plus usual care (n=74) or usual care alone (n=76). At intervals of 1 week and 1 year after their clinic visit, participants completed surveys containing validated measures of risk perception and levels of worry associated with the 12 conditions assessed by the DTC product. RESULTS: Of 345 patients approached, 150 (43%) agreed to participate, 64 (19%) refused, and 131 (38%) did not respond. Compared with those receiving usual care, participants who received genomic risk information initially rated their risk as higher for 4 conditions (abdominal aneurysm [P=.001], Graves disease [P=.04], obesity [P=.01], and osteoarthritis [P=.04]) and lower for one (prostate cancer [P=.02]). Although differences were not significant, they also reported higher levels of worry for 7 conditions and lower levels for 5 others. At 1 year, there were no significant differences between groups. CONCLUSION: Predictive genomic risk information modestly influences risk perception and worry. The extent and direction of this influence may depend on the condition being tested and its baseline prominence in preventive health care and may attenuate with time.

Incidental findings in imaging research: evaluating incidence, benefit, and burden.

BACKGROUND: Little information exists concerning the frequency and medical significance of incidental findings (IFs) in imaging research. METHODS: Medical records of research participants undergoing a research imaging examination interpreted by a radiologist during January through March 2004 were reviewed, with 3-year clinical follow-up. An expert panel reviewed all IFs generating clinical action to determine medical benefit/burden on the basis of predefined criteria. The frequency of IFs that generated further clinical action was estimated by modality, body part, age, and sex, along with net medical benefit or burden. RESULTS: Of 1426 research imaging examinations, 567 (39.8%) had at least 1 IF (1055 total). Risk of an IF increased significantly by age (odds ratio [OR], 1.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-1.7 per decade increase). Abdominopelvic computed tomography generated more IFs than other examinations (OR, 18.9 vs ultrasonography; 9.2% with subsequent clinical action), with computed tomography of the thorax and magnetic resonance imaging of the head next (OR, 11.9 and 5.9; 2.8% and 2.2% with action, respectively). Of the 567 examinations with an IF, 35 (6.2%) generated clinical action, resulting in clear medical benefit in 1.1% (6 of 567) and clear medical burden in 0.5% (3 of 567). Medical benefit/burden was usually unclear (26 of 567 [4.6%]). CONCLUSIONS: Frequency of IFs in imaging research examinations varies significantly by imaging modality, body region, and age. Research imaging studies at high risk for generating IFs can be identified. Routine evaluation of research images by radiologists may result in identification of IFs in a high number of cases and subsequent clinical action to address them in a small but significant minority. Such clinical action can result in medical benefit to a small number of patients.