Long-term exposure to air pollution and incidence of gastric and the upper aerodigestive tract cancers in a pooled European cohort: The ELAPSE project.

Air pollution has been shown to significantly impact human health including cancer. Gastric and upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancers are common and increased risk has been associated with smoking and occupational exposures. However, the association with air pollution remains unclear. We pooled European subcohorts (N = 287,576 participants for gastric and N = 297,406 for UADT analyses) and investigated the association between residential exposure to fine particles (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC) and ozone in the warm season (O3w) with gastric and UADT cancer. We applied Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and area-level. During 5,305,133 and 5,434,843 person-years, 872 gastric and 1139 UADT incident cancer cases were observed, respectively. For gastric cancer, we found no association with PM2.5, NO2 and BC while for UADT the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) were 1.15 (95% CI: 1.00-1.33) per 5 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5, 1.19 (1.08-1.30) per 10 µg/m3 increase in NO2, 1.14 (1.04-1.26) per 0.5 × 10-5 m-1 increase in BC and 0.81 (0.72-0.92) per 10 µg/m3 increase in O3w. We found no association between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and incidence of gastric cancer, while for long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO2 and BC increased incidence of UADT cancer was observed.

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and risk of lung cancer - a comparative analysis of incidence and mortality in four administrative cohorts in the ELAPSE study.

BACKGROUND: Studies have linked air pollution to lung cancer incidence and mortality, but few have compared these associations, which may differ due to cancer survival variations. We aimed to evaluate the association between long-term air pollution exposure and lung cancer incidence and compare findings with previous lung cancer mortality analyses within the same cohorts. METHODS: We analyzed four population-based administrative cohorts in Denmark (2000-2015), England (2011-2017), Norway (2001-2016) and Rome (2001-2015). We assessed residential exposure to annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), and warm-season ozone (O3) using Europe-wide land use regression models. We used Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate cohort-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for lung cancer incidence identified using hospital admission records (English and Roman cohorts) or cancer registries (Danish and Norwegian cohorts). We evaluated the associations at low exposure levels using subset analyses and natural cubic splines. Cohort-specific HRs were pooled using random-effects meta-analyses, separately for incidence and mortality. RESULTS: Over 93,733,929 person-years of follow-up, 111,949 incident lung cancer cases occurred. Incident lung cancer was positively associated with PM2.5, NO2 and BC, and negatively associated with O3. The negative O3 association became positive after adjustment for NO2. Associations were almost identical or slightly stronger for lung cancer incidence than mortality in the same cohorts, with respective meta-analytic HRs (95% CIs) of 1.14 (1.06, 1.22) and 1.12 (1.02, 1.22) per 5 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5, and 1.10 (1.04, 1.16) and 1.09 (1.02, 1.16) per 10 µg/m3 increase in NO2. Positive associations persisted for both incidence and mortality at low pollution levels with similar magnitude. CONCLUSIONS: We found similarly elevated risks of lung cancer incidence and mortality in association with residential exposure to PM2.5, NO2 and BC in meta-analyses of four European administrative cohorts, which persisted at low pollution levels.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and chronic kidney disease-associated mortality-Results from the pooled cohort of the European multicentre ELAPSE-study.

Despite the known link between air pollution and cause-specific mortality, its relation to chronic kidney disease (CKD)-associated mortality is understudied. Therefore, we investigated the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and CKD-related mortality in a large multicentre population-based European cohort. Cohort data were linked to local mortality registry data. CKD-death was defined as ICD10 codes N18-N19 or corresponding ICD9 codes. Mean annual exposure at participant's home address was determined with fine spatial resolution exposure models for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), ozone (O3), particulate matter ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5) and several elemental constituents of PM2.5. Cox regression models were adjusted for age, sex, cohort, calendar year of recruitment, smoking status, marital status, employment status and neighbourhood mean income. Over a mean follow-up time of 20.4 years, 313 of 289,564 persons died from CKD. Associations were positive for PM2.5 (hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.31 (1.03-1.66) per 5 µg/m3, BC (1.26 (1.03-1.53) per 0.5 × 10- 5/m), NO2 (1.13 (0.93-1.38) per 10 µg/m3) and inverse for O3 (0.71 (0.54-0.93) per 10 µg/m3). Results were robust to further covariate adjustment. Exclusion of the largest sub-cohort contributing 226 cases, led to null associations. Among the elemental constituents, Cu, Fe, K, Ni, S and Zn, representing different sources including traffic, biomass and oil burning and secondary pollutants, were associated with CKD-related mortality. In conclusion, our results suggest an association between air pollution from different sources and CKD-related mortality.

Long-term air pollution exposure and malignant intracranial tumours of the central nervous system: a pooled analysis of six European cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Risk factors for malignant tumours of the central nervous system (CNS) are largely unknown. METHODS: We pooled six European cohorts (N = 302,493) and assessed the association between residential exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), fine particles (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), ozone (O3) and eight elemental components of PM2.5 (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc) and malignant intracranial CNS tumours defined according to the International Classification of Diseases ICD-9/ICD-10 codes 192.1/C70.0, 191.0-191.9/C71.0-C71.9, 192.0/C72.2-C72.5. We applied Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and area-level. RESULTS: During 5,497,514 person-years of follow-up (average 18.2 years), we observed 623 malignant CNS tumours. The results of the fully adjusted linear analyses showed a hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.07 (0.95, 1.21) per 10 µg/m³ NO2, 1.17 (0.96, 1.41) per 5 µg/m³ PM2.5, 1.10 (0.97, 1.25) per 0.5 10-5m-1 BC, and 0.99 (0.84, 1.17) per 10 µg/m³ O3. CONCLUSIONS: We observed indications of an association between exposure to NO2, PM2.5, and BC and tumours of the CNS. The PM elements were not consistently associated with CNS tumour incidence.

Multiple myeloma risk in relation to long-term air pollution exposure - A pooled analysis of four European cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution is a growing concern worldwide, with significant impacts on human health. Multiple myeloma is a type of blood cancer with increasing incidence. Studies have linked air pollution exposure to various types of cancer, including leukemia and lymphoma, however, the relationship with multiple myeloma incidence has not been extensively investigated. METHODS: We pooled four European cohorts (N = 234,803) and assessed the association between residential exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), fine particles (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), and ozone (O3) and multiple myeloma. We applied Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and area-level. RESULTS: During 4,415,817 person-years of follow-up (average 18.8 years), we observed 404 cases of multiple myeloma. The results of the fully adjusted linear analyses showed hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of 0.99 (0.84, 1.16) per 10 µg/m³ NO2, 1.04 (0.82, 1.33) per 5 µg/m³ PM2.5, 0.99 (0.84, 1.18) per 0.5 10-5 m-1 BCE, and 1.11 (0.87, 1.41) per 10 µg/m³ O3. CONCLUSIONS: We did not observe an association between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and incidence of multiple myeloma.

Long-term exposure to elemental components of fine particulate matter and all-natural and cause-specific mortality in a Danish nationwide administrative cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a well-recognized risk factor for premature death. However, evidence on which PM2.5 components are most relevant is unclear. METHODS: We evaluated the associations between mortality and long-term exposure to eight PM2.5 elemental components [copper (Cu), iron (Fe), zinc (Zn), sulfur (S), nickel (Ni), vanadium (V), silicon (Si), and potassium (K)]. Studied outcomes included death from diabetes, chronic kidney disease (CKD), dementia, and psychiatric disorders as well as all-natural causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory diseases (RD), and lung cancer. We followed all residents in Denmark (aged ≥30 years) from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017. We used European-wide land-use regression models at a 100 × 100 m scale to estimate the residential annual mean levels of exposure to PM2.5 components. The models were developed with supervised linear regression (SLR) and random forest (RF). The associations were evaluated by Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for individual- and area-level socioeconomic factors and total PM2.5 mass. RESULTS: Of 3,081,244 individuals, we observed 803,373 death from natural causes during follow-up. We found significant positive associations between all-natural mortality with Si and K from both exposure modeling approaches (hazard ratios; 95% confidence intervals per interquartile range increase): SLR-Si (1.04; 1.03-1.05), RF-Si (1.01; 1.00-1.02), SLR-K (1.03; 1.02-1.04), and RF-K (1.06; 1.05-1.07). Strong associations of K and Si were detected with most causes of mortality except CKD and K, and diabetes and Si (the strongest associations for psychiatric disorders mortality). In addition, Fe was relevant for mortality from RD, lung cancer, CKD, and psychiatric disorders; Zn with mortality from CKD, RD, and lung cancer, and; Ni and V with lung cancer mortality. CONCLUSIONS: We present novel results of the relevance of different PM2.5 components for different causes of death, with K and Si seeming to be most consistently associated with mortality in Denmark.

Association between exposure to multiple air pollutants, transportation noise and cause-specific mortality in adults in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Long-term exposure to air pollution and noise is detrimental to health; but studies that evaluated both remain limited. This study explores associations with natural and cause-specific mortality for a range of air pollutants and transportation noise. METHODS: Over 4 million adults in Switzerland were followed from 2000 to 2014. Exposure to PM2.5, PM2.5 components (Cu, Fe, S and Zn), NO2, black carbon (BC) and ozone (O3) from European models, and transportation noise from source-specific Swiss models, were assigned at baseline home addresses. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for individual and area-level covariates, were used to evaluate associations with each exposure and death from natural, cardiovascular (CVD) or non-malignant respiratory disease. Analyses included single and two exposure models, and subset analysis to study lower exposure ranges. RESULTS: During follow-up, 661,534 individuals died of natural causes (36.6% CVD, 6.6% respiratory). All exposures including the PM2.5 components were associated with natural mortality, with hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 1.026 (1.015, 1.038) per 5 µg/m3 PM2.5, 1.050 (1.041, 1.059) per 10 µg/m3 NO2, 1.057 (1.048, 1.067) per 0.5 × 10-5/m BC and 1.045 (1.040, 1.049) per 10 dB Lden total transportation noise. NO2, BC, Cu, Fe and noise were consistently associated with CVD and respiratory mortality, whereas PM2.5 was only associated with CVD mortality. Natural mortality associations persisted < 20 µg/m3 for PM2.5 and NO2, < 1.5 10-5/m BC and < 53 dB Lden total transportation noise. The O3 association was inverse for all outcomes. Including noise attenuated all outcome associations, though many remained significant. Across outcomes, noise was robust to adjustment to air pollutants (e.g. natural mortality 1.037 (1.033, 1.042) per 10 dB Lden total transportation noise, after including BC). CONCLUSION: Long-term exposure to air pollution and transportation noise in Switzerland contribute to premature mortality. Considering co-exposures revealed the importance of local traffic-related pollutants such as NO2, BC and transportation noise.

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and bladder cancer incidence in a pooled European cohort: the ELAPSE project.

BACKGROUND: The evidence linking ambient air pollution to bladder cancer is limited and mixed. METHODS: We assessed the associations of bladder cancer incidence with residential exposure to fine particles (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), warm season ozone (O3) and eight PM2.5 elemental components (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc) in a pooled cohort (N = 302,493). Exposures were primarily assessed based on 2010 measurements and back-extrapolated to the baseline years. We applied Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for individual- and area-level potential confounders. RESULTS: During an average of 18.2 years follow-up, 967 bladder cancer cases occurred. We observed a positive though statistically non-significant association between PM2.5 and bladder cancer incidence. Hazard Ratios (HR) were 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.93-1.27) per 5 µg/m3 for 2010 exposure and 1.06 (95% CI: 0.99-1.14) for baseline exposure. Effect estimates for NO2, BC and O3 were close to unity. A positive association was observed with PM2.5 zinc (HR 1.08; 95% CI: 1.00-1.16 per 10 ng/m3). CONCLUSIONS: We found suggestive evidence of an association between long-term PM2.5 mass exposure and bladder cancer, strengthening the evidence from the few previous studies. The association with zinc in PM2.5 suggests the importance of industrial emissions.

Long-Term Exposure to Source-Specific Fine Particles and Mortality─A Pooled Analysis of 14 European Cohorts within the ELAPSE Project.

We assessed mortality risks associated with source-specific fine particles (PM2.5) in a pooled European cohort of 323,782 participants. Cox proportional hazard models were applied to estimate mortality hazard ratios (HRs) for source-specific PM2.5 identified through a source apportionment analysis. Exposure to 2010 annual average concentrations of source-specific PM2.5 components was assessed at baseline residential addresses. The source apportionment resulted in the identification of five sources: traffic, residual oil combustion, soil, biomass and agriculture, and industry. In single-source analysis, all identified sources were significantly positively associated with increased natural mortality risks. In multisource analysis, associations with all sources attenuated but remained statistically significant with traffic, oil, and biomass and agriculture. The highest association per interquartile increase was observed for the traffic component (HR: 1.06; 95% CI: 1.04 and 1.08 per 2.86 µg/m3 increase) across five identified sources. On a 1 µg/m3 basis, the residual oil-related PM2.5 had the strongest association (HR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.05 and 1.22), which was substantially higher than that for generic PM2.5 mass, suggesting that past estimates using the generic PM2.5 exposure response function have underestimated the potential clean air health benefits of reducing fossil-fuel combustion. Source-specific associations with cause-specific mortality were in general consistent with findings of natural mortality.

Long term exposure to air pollution and kidney parenchyma cancer - Effects of low-level air pollution: a Study in Europe (ELAPSE).

BACKGROUND: Particulate matter (PM) is classified as a group 1 human carcinogen. Previous experimental studies suggest that particles in diesel exhaust induce oxidative stress, inflammation and DNA damage in kidney cells, but the evidence from population studies linking air pollution to kidney cancer is limited. METHODS: We pooled six European cohorts (N = 302,493) to assess the association of residential exposure to fine particles (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), warm season ozone (O3) and eight elemental components of PM2.5 (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc) with cancer of the kidney parenchyma. The main exposure model was developed for year 2010. We defined kidney parenchyma cancer according to the International Classification of Diseases 9th and 10th Revision codes 189.0 and C64. We applied Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and area-level. RESULTS: The participants were followed from baseline (1985-2005) to 2011-2015. A total of 847 cases occurred during 5,497,514 person-years of follow-up (average 18.2 years). Median (5-95%) exposure levels of NO2, PM2.5, BC and O3 were 24.1 µg/m3 (12.8-39.2), 15.3 µg/m3 (8.6-19.2), 1.6 10-5 m-1 (0.7-2.1), and 87.0 µg/m3 (70.3-97.4), respectively. The results of the fully adjusted linear analyses showed a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.03 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.92, 1.15) per 10 µg/m³ NO2, 1.04 (95% CI: 0.88, 1.21) per 5 µg/m³ PM2.5, 0.99 (95% CI: 0.89, 1.11) per 0.5 10-5 m-1 BCE, and 0.88 (95% CI: 0.76, 1.02) per 10 µg/m³ O3. We did not find associations between any of the elemental components of PM2.5 and cancer of the kidney parenchyma. CONCLUSION: We did not observe an association between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and incidence of kidney parenchyma cancer.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and liver cancer incidence in six European cohorts.

Particulate matter air pollution and diesel engine exhaust have been classified as carcinogenic for lung cancer, yet few studies have explored associations with liver cancer. We used six European adult cohorts which were recruited between 1985 and 2005, pooled within the "Effects of low-level air pollution: A study in Europe" (ELAPSE) project, and followed for the incidence of liver cancer until 2011 to 2015. The annual average exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ), particulate matter with diameter <2.5 µm (PM2.5 ), black carbon (BC), warm-season ozone (O3 ), and eight elemental components of PM2.5 (copper, iron, zinc, sulfur, nickel, vanadium, silicon, and potassium) were estimated by European-wide hybrid land-use regression models at participants' residential addresses. We analyzed the association between air pollution and liver cancer incidence by Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders. Of 330 064 cancer-free adults at baseline, 512 developed liver cancer during a mean follow-up of 18.1 years. We observed positive linear associations between NO2 (hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval: 1.17, 1.02-1.35 per 10 µg/m3 ), PM2.5 (1.12, 0.92-1.36 per 5 µg/m3 ), and BC (1.15, 1.00-1.33 per 0.5 10-5 /m) and liver cancer incidence. Associations with NO2 and BC persisted in two-pollutant models with PM2.5 . Most components of PM2.5 were associated with the risk of liver cancer, with the strongest associations for sulfur and vanadium, which were robust to adjustment for PM2.5 or NO2 . Our study suggests that ambient air pollution may increase the risk of liver cancer, even at concentrations below current EU standards.

Long-term exposure to low-level air pollution and incidence of asthma: the ELAPSE project.

BACKGROUND: Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution has been linked to childhood-onset asthma, although evidence is still insufficient. Within the multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE), we examined the associations of long-term exposures to particulate matter with a diameter <2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and black carbon (BC) with asthma incidence in adults. METHODS: We pooled data from three cohorts in Denmark and Sweden with information on asthma hospital diagnoses. The average concentrations of air pollutants in 2010 were modelled by hybrid land-use regression models at participants' baseline residential addresses. Associations of air pollution exposures with asthma incidence were explored with Cox proportional hazard models, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Of 98 326 participants, 1965 developed asthma during a mean follow-up of 16.6 years. We observed associations in fully adjusted models with hazard ratios of 1.22 (95% CI 1.04-1.43) per 5 µg·m-3 for PM2.5, 1.17 (95% CI 1.10-1.25) per 10 µg·m-3 for NO2 and 1.15 (95% CI 1.08-1.23) per 0.5×10-5 m-1 for BC. Hazard ratios were larger in cohort subsets with exposure levels below the European Union and US limit values and possibly World Health Organization guidelines for PM2.5 and NO2. NO2 and BC estimates remained unchanged in two-pollutant models with PM2.5, whereas PM2.5 estimates were attenuated to unity. The concentration-response curves showed no evidence of a threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to air pollution, especially from fossil fuel combustion sources such as motorised traffic, was associated with adult-onset asthma, even at levels below the current limit values.

Long-term exposure to fine particle elemental components and lung cancer incidence in the ELAPSE pooled cohort.

BACKGROUND: An association between long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and lung cancer has been established in previous studies. PM2.5 is a complex mixture of chemical components from various sources and little is known about whether certain components contribute specifically to the associated lung cancer risk. The present study builds on recent findings from the "Effects of Low-level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe" (ELAPSE) collaboration and addresses the potential association between specific elemental components of PM2.5 and lung cancer incidence. METHODS: We pooled seven cohorts from across Europe and assigned exposure estimates for eight components of PM2.5 representing non-tail pipe emissions (copper (Cu), iron (Fe), and zinc (Zn)), long-range transport (sulfur (S)), oil burning/industry emissions (nickel (Ni), vanadium (V)), crustal material (silicon (Si)), and biomass burning (potassium (K)) to cohort participants' baseline residential address based on 100 m by 100 m grids from newly developed hybrid models combining air pollution monitoring, land use data, satellite observations, and dispersion model estimates. We applied stratified Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for potential confounders (age, sex, calendar year, marital status, smoking, body mass index, employment status, and neighborhood-level socio-economic status). RESULTS: The pooled study population comprised 306,550 individuals with 3916 incident lung cancer events during 5,541,672 person-years of follow-up. We observed a positive association between exposure to all eight components and lung cancer incidence, with adjusted HRs of 1.10 (95% CI 1.05, 1.16) per 50 ng/m3 PM2.5 K, 1.09 (95% CI 1.02, 1.15) per 1 ng/m3 PM2.5 Ni, 1.22 (95% CI 1.11, 1.35) per 200 ng/m3 PM2.5 S, and 1.07 (95% CI 1.02, 1.12) per 200 ng/m3 PM2.5 V. Effect estimates were largely unaffected by adjustment for nitrogen dioxide (NO2). After adjustment for PM2.5 mass, effect estimates of K, Ni, S, and V were slightly attenuated, whereas effect estimates of Cu, Si, Fe, and Zn became null or negative. CONCLUSIONS: Our results point towards an increased risk of lung cancer in connection with sources of combustion particles from oil and biomass burning and secondary inorganic aerosols rather than non-exhaust traffic emissions. Specific limit values or guidelines targeting these specific PM2.5 components may prove helpful in future lung cancer prevention strategies.

Mortality and Morbidity Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Low-Level PM2.5, BC, NO2, and O3: An Analysis of European Cohorts in the ELAPSE Project.

INTRODUCTION: Epidemiological cohort studies have consistently found associations between long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution and a range of morbidity and mortality endpoints. Recent evaluations by the World Health Organization and the Global Burden of Disease study have suggested that these associations may be nonlinear and may persist at very low concentrations. Studies conducted in North America in particular have suggested that associations with mortality persisted at concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) well below current air quality standards and guidelines. The uncertainty about the shape of the concentration-response function at the low end of the concentration distribution, related to the scarcity of observations in the lowest range, was the basis of the current project. Previous studies have focused on PM2.5, but increasingly associations with nitrogen dioxide (NO2) are being reported, particularly in studies that accounted for the fine spatial scale variation of NO2. Very few studies have evaluated the effects of long-term exposure to low concentrations of ozone (O3). Health effects of black carbon (BC), representing primary combustion particles, have not been studied in most large cohort studies of PM2.5. Cohort studies assessing health effects of particle composition, including elements from nontailpipe traffic emissions (iron, copper, and zinc) and secondary aerosol (sulfur) have been few in number and reported inconsistent results. The overall objective of our study was to investigate the shape of the relationship between long-term exposure to four pollutants (PM2.5, NO2, BC, and O3) and four broad health effect categories using a number of different methods to characterize the concentration-response function (i.e., linear, nonlinear, or threshold). The four health effect categories were (1) natural- and cause-specific mortality including cardiovascular and nonmalignant as well as malignant respiratory and diabetes mortality; and morbidity measured as (2) coronary and cerebrovascular events; (3) lung cancer incidence; and (4) asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence. We additionally assessed health effects of PM2.5 composition, specifically the copper, iron, zinc, and sulfur content of PM2,5. METHODS: We focused on analyses of health effects of air pollutants at low concentrations, defined as less than current European Union (EU) Limit Values, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA), National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), and/or World Health Organization (WHO) Air Quality Guideline values for PM2.5, NO2, and O3. We address the health effects at low air pollution levels by performing new analyses within selected cohorts of the ESCAPE study (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects; Beelen et al. 2014a) and within seven very large European administrative cohorts. By combining well-characterized ESCAPE cohorts and large administrative cohorts in one study the strengths and weaknesses of each approach can be addressed. The large administrative cohorts are more representative of national or citywide populations, have higher statistical power, and can efficiently control for area-level confounders, but have fewer possibilities to control for individual-level confounders. The ESCAPE cohorts have detailed information on individual confounders, as well as country-specific information on area-level confounding. The data from the seven included ESCAPE cohorts and one additional non-ESCAPE cohort have been pooled and analyzed centrally. More than 300,000 adults were included in the pooled cohort from existing cohorts in Sweden, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, France, and Italy. Data from the administrative cohorts have been analyzed locally, without transfer to a central database. Privacy regulations prevented transfer of data from administrative cohorts to a central database. More than 28 million adults were included from national administrative cohorts in Belgium, Denmark, England, the Netherlands, Norway, and Switzerland as well as an administrative cohort in Rome, Italy. We developed central exposure assessment using Europewide hybrid land use regression (LUR) models, which incorporated European routine monitoring data for PM2.5, NO2, and O3, and ESCAPE monitoring data for BC and PM2.5 composition, land use, and traffic data supplemented with satellite observations and chemical transport model estimates. For all pollutants, we assessed exposure at a fine spatial scale, 100 × 100 m grids. These models have been applied to individual addresses of all cohorts including the administrative cohorts. In sensitivity analyses, we applied the PM2.5 models developed within the companion HEI-funded Canadian MAPLE study (Brauer et al. 2019) and O3 exposures on a larger spatial scale for comparison with previous studies. Identification of outcomes included linkage with mortality, cancer incidence, hospital discharge registries, and physician-based adjudication of cases. We analyzed natural-cause, cardiovascular, ischemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, cardiometabolic, respiratory, and COPD mortality. We also analyzed lung cancer incidence, incidence of coronary and cerebrovascular events, and incidence of asthma and COPD (pooled cohort only). We applied the Cox proportional hazard model with increasing control for individual- and area-level covariates to analyze the associations between air pollution and mortality and/or morbidity for both the pooled cohort and the individual administrative cohorts. Age was used as the timescale because of evidence that this results in better adjustment for potential confounding by age. Censoring occurred at the time of the event of interest, death from other causes, emigration, loss to follow-up for other reasons, or at the end of follow-up, whichever came first. A priori we specified three confounder models, following the modeling methods of the ESCAPE study. Model 1 included only age (time axis), sex (as strata), and calendar year of enrollment. Model 2 added individual-level variables that were consistently available in the cohorts contributing to the pooled cohort or all variables available in the administrative cohorts, respectively. Model 3 further added area-level socioeconomic status (SES) variables. A priori model 3 was selected as the main model. All analyses in the pooled cohort were stratified by subcohort. All analyses in the administrative cohorts accounted for clustering of the data in neighborhoods by adjusting the variance of the effect estimates. The main exposure variable we analyzed was derived from the Europewide hybrid models based on 2010 monitoring data. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using earlier time periods, time-varying exposure analyses, local exposure models, and the PM2.5 models from the Canadian MAPLE project. We first specified linear single-pollutant models. Two-pollutant models were specified for all combinations of the four main pollutants. Two-pollutant models for particle composition were analyzed with PM2.5 and NO2 as the second pollutant. We then investigated the shape of the concentration-response function using natural splines with two, three, and four degrees of freedom; penalized splines with the degrees of freedom determined by the algorithm and shape-constrained health impact functions (SCHIF) using confounder model 3. Additionally, we specified linear models in subsets of the concentration range, defined by removing concentrations above a certain value from the analysis, such as for PM2.5 25 µg/m3 (EU limit value), 20, 15, 12 µg/m3 (U.S. EPA National Ambient Air Quality Standard), and 10 µg/m3 (WHO Air Quality Guideline value). Finally, threshold models were evaluated to investigate whether the associations persisted below specific concentration values. For PM2.5, we evaluated 10, 7.5, and 5 µg/m3 as potential thresholds. Performance of threshold models versus the corresponding no-threshold linear model were evaluated using the Akaike information criterion (AIC). RESULTS: In the pooled cohort, virtually all subjects in 2010 had PM2.5 and NO2 annual average exposures below the EU limit values (25 µg/m3 and 40 µg/m3, respectively). More than 50,000 had a residential PM2.5 exposure below the U.S. EPA NAAQS (12 µg/m3). More than 25,000 subjects had a residential PM2.5 exposure below the WHO guideline (10 µg/m3). We found significant positive associations between PM2.5, NO2, and BC and natural-cause, respiratory, cardiovascular, and diabetes mortality. In our main model, the hazard ratios (HRs) (95% [confidence interval] CI) were 1.13 (CI = 1.11, 1.16) for an increase of 5 µg/m3 PM2.5, 1.09 (CI = 1.07, 1.10) for an increase of 10 µg/m3 NO2, and 1.08 (CI = 1.06, 1.10) for an increase of 0.5 × 10-5/m BC for natural-cause mortality. The highest HRs were found for diabetes mortality. Associations with O3 were negative, both in the fine spatial scale of the main ELAPSE model and in large spatial scale exposure models. For PM2.5, NO2, and BC, we generally observed a supralinear association with steeper slopes at low exposures and no evidence of a concentration below which no association was found. Subset analyses further confirmed that these associations remained at low levels: below 10 µg/m3 for PM2.5 and 20 µg/m3 for NO2. HRs were similar to the full cohort HRs for subjects with exposures below the EU limit values for PM2.5 and NO2, the U.S. NAAQS values for PM2.5, and the WHO guidelines for PM2.5 and NO2. The mortality associations were robust to alternative specifications of exposure, including different time periods, PM2.5 from the MAPLE project, and estimates from the local ESCAPE model. Time-varying exposure natural spline analyses confirmed associations at low pollution levels. HRs in two-pollutant models were attenuated but remained elevated and statistically significant for PM2.5 and NO2. In two-pollutant models of PM2.5 and NO2 HRs for natural-cause mortality were 1.08 (CI = 1.05, 1.11) for PM2.5 and 1.05 (CI = 1.03, 1.07) for NO2. Associations with O3 were attenuated but remained negative in two-pollutant models with NO2, BC, and PM2.5. We found significant positive associations between PM2.5, NO2, and BC and incidence of stroke and asthma and COPD hospital admissions. Furthermore, NO2 was significantly related to acute coronary heart disease and PM2.5 was significantly related to lung cancer incidence. We generally observed linear to supralinear associations with no evidence of a threshold, with the exception of the association between NO2 and acute coronary heart disease, which was sublinear. Subset analyses documented that associations remained even with PM2.5 below 20 µg/m3 and possibly 12 µg/m3. Associations remained even when NO2 was below 30 µg/m3 and in some cases 20 µg/m3. In two-pollutant models, NO2 was most consistently associated with acute coronary heart disease, stroke, asthma, and COPD hospital admissions. PM2.5 was not associated with these outcomes in two-pollutant models with NO2. PM2.5 was the only pollutant that was associated with lung cancer incidence in two-pollutant models. Associations with O3 were negative though generally not statistically significant. In the administrative cohorts, virtually all subjects in 2010 had PM2.5 and NO2 annual average exposures below the EU limit values. More than 3.9 million subjects had a residential PM2.5 exposure below the U.S. EPA NAAQS (12 µg/m3) and more than 1.9 million had residential PM2.5 exposures below the WHO guideline (10 µg/m3). We found significant positive associations between PM2.5, NO2, and BC and natural-cause, respiratory, cardiovascular, and lung cancer mortality, with moderate to high heterogeneity between cohorts. We found positive but statistically nonsignificant associations with diabetes mortality. In our main model meta-analysis, the HRs (95% CI) for natural-cause mortality were 1.05 (CI = 1.02, 1.09) for an increase of 5 µg/m3 PM2.5, 1.04 (CI = 1.02, 1.07) for an increase of 10 µg/m3 NO2, and 1.04 (CI = 1.02, 1.06) for an increase of 0.5 × 10-5/m BC, and 0.95 (CI = 0.93, 0.98) for an increase of 10 µg/m3 O3. The shape of the concentration-response functions differed between cohorts, though the associations were generally linear to supralinear, with no indication of a level below which no associations were found. Subset analyses documented that these associations remained at low levels: below 10 µg/m3 for PM2.5 and 20 µg/m3 for NO2. BC and NO2 remained significantly associated with mortality in two-pollutant models with PM2.5 and O3. The PM2.5 HR attenuated to unity in a two-pollutant model with NO2. The negative O3 association was attenuated to unity and became nonsignificant. The mortality associations were robust to alternative specifications of exposure, including time-varying exposure analyses. Time-varying exposure natural spline analyses confirmed associations at low pollution levels. Effect estimates in the youngest participants (<65 years at baseline) were much larger than in the elderly (>65 years at baseline). Effect estimates obtained with the ELAPSE PM2.5 model did not differ from the MAPLE PM2.5 model on average, but in individual cohorts, substantial differences were found. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO2, and BC was positively associated with natural-cause and cause-specific mortality in the pooled cohort and the administrative cohorts. Associations were found well below current limit values and guidelines for PM2.5 and NO2. Associations tended to be supralinear, with steeper slopes at low exposures with no indication of a threshold. Two-pollutant models documented the importance of characterizing the ambient mixture with both NO2 and PM2.5. We mostly found negative associations with O3. In two-pollutant models with NO2, the negative associations with O3 were attenuated to essentially unity in the mortality analysis of the administrative cohorts and the incidence analyses in the pooled cohort. In the mortality analysis of the pooled cohort, significant negative associations with O3 remained in two-pollutant models. Long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO2, and BC was also positively associated with morbidity outcomes in the pooled cohort. For stroke, asthma, and COPD, positive associations were found for PM2.5, NO2, and BC. For acute coronary heart disease, an increased HR was observed for NO2. For lung cancer, an increased HR was found only for PM2.5. Associations mostly showed steeper slopes at low exposures with no indication of a threshold.

Long-term exposure to ozone and children's respiratory health: Results from the RESPOZE study.

BACKGROUND: Although there is evidence on the effects of short-term ozone (O3) exposures on children's respiratory health, few studies have reported results on the effects of long-term exposures. We report the effects of long-term exposure to O3 on respiratory health outcomes in 10-11-year old children. METHODS: We conducted a panel study in a sample of the general population of school children in two cities with high average O3 concentrations, Athens and Thessaloniki, Greece. All 186 participating students were followed up intensively for 5 weeks spreading across a school year. Data was collected through questionnaires, weekly personal O3 measurements, spirometry, FeNO and time-activity diaries. Long-term O3 exposure was assessed using fixed site measurements and modeling, calibrated for personal exposures. The associations between measured lung function parameters and lung function growth over the study period, as well as FeNO and the occurrence of symptoms with long-term O3 exposure were assessed through the application of multiple mixed effects 2-level regression models, adjusting for confounders and for short-term exposures. RESULTS: A 10 µg/m3 increase in calibrated long-term O3exposure, using measurements from fixed site monitors was associated with lower FVC and FEV1 by 17 mL (95% Confidence Interval: 5-28) and 13 mL (3-21) respectively and small decreases in lung growth: 0.008% (0.002-0.014%) for FVC and 0.006% (0.000-0.012%) in FEV1 over the study period. No association was observed with PEF, FeNO or the occurrence of symptoms. A similar pattern was observed when the exposure estimates from the dispersion models were employed. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides evidence that long-term O3 exposure is associated with reduced lung volumes and growth.

Assessing the cumulative health effect following short term exposure to multiple pollutants: An evaluation of methodological approaches using simulations and real data.

BACKGROUND: Assessment of the cumulative effect of correlated exposures is an open methodological issue in environmental epidemiology. Most previous studies have applied regression models with interaction terms or dimension reduction methods. The combined effect of pollutants has been also evaluated through the use of exposure scores that incorporate weights based on the strength of the component-specific associations with health outcomes. METHODS: We compared three approaches addressing multi-pollutant exposures in epidemiological models: main effects models, the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and a weighted exposure score. We assessed the performance of the methods by simulations under various scenarios for the pollutants' correlations. We further applied these methods to time series data from Athens, Greece in 2007-12 to investigate the combined effect of short-term exposure to six regulated pollutants on all-cause and respiratory mortality. RESULTS: The exposure score provided the least biased estimate under all correlation scenarios for both mortality outcomes. The adaptive LASSO performed well in the case of low and medium correlation between exposures while the main effect model resulted in severe bias. In the real data application, the cumulative effect estimate was similar between approaches for all-cause mortality ranging from 0.7% increase per interquartile range (IQR) (score) to 1.1% (main effects), while for respiratory mortality conclusions were contradictive and ranged from - 0.6% (adaptive LASSO) to 2.8% (score). CONCLUSIONS: Τhe use of a weighted exposure score to address cumulative effects of correlated metrics may perform well under different exposure correlation and variability in the health outcomes.

Determinants of personal exposure to ozone in school children. Results from a panel study in Greece.

BACKGROUND: In the wider framework of the RESPOZE (ReSPiratory effects of OZone Exposure in Greek children) panel study, we investigated possible determinants of O3 exposure of school children, measured with personal passive samplers, in Athens and Thessaloniki, Greece. METHODS: Personal exposure to O3 was measured for five weeks spread along the academic year 2013-14, in 186 school children in Athens and Thessaloniki, Greece. At the same time, at-school outdoor measurements were performed and ambient levels of 8-h daily maximum O3 from fixed sites were collected. We also collected information on lifestyle and housing characteristics through an extended general questionnaire (GQ) and each participant completed daily time activity diaries (TADs) during the study period. RESULTS: Mean outdoor concentrations were higher during the warmer months, in the suburbs of the cities and in Athens. Personal exposure concentrations were significantly lower compared to outdoor. Daily levels of at-school outdoor and ambient levels of O3 from fixed sites were significant determinants of personal exposure to O3. For a 10µg/m3 increase in at-school outdoor O3 concentrations and PM10 measurements a 20.9% (95% CI: 13%, 28%) increase in personal exposure to O3 was found. For a half an hour more spent in transportation an average increase of 7% (95% CI: 0.3%, 14.6%) in personal exposure to O3 was observed. Among other possible determinants, time spent in transportation (TAD variable) and duration of open windows were the ones associated with personal O3 exposure levels. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the use of outdoor and ambient measurements from fixed sites in epidemiological studies as a proxy of personal exposure to O3, but this has to be calibrated taking into account personal measurements and time-activity patterns.

Desert dust outbreaks and respiratory morbidity in Athens, Greece.

BACKGROUND: Ambient particulate matter (PM) has an adverse effect on respiratory morbidity. Desert dust outbreaks contribute to increased PM levels but the toxicity of desert dust mixed with anthropogenic pollutants needs clarification. METHODS: We identified 132 days with desert dust episodes and 177 matched days by day of the week, season, temperature and humidity between 2001 and 2006 in Athens, Greece. We collected data on regulated pollutants and daily emergency outpatient visits and admissions for respiratory causes. We applied Poisson regression models adjusting for confounding effects of seasonality, meteorology, holidays and influenza epidemics. We evaluated the sensitivity of our results to co-pollutant exposures and effect modification by age and sex. RESULTS: A 10 µg/m3 increase in PM10 concentration was associated with 1.95% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.02%, 3.91%) increase in respiratory emergency room visits. No significant interaction with desert dust episodes was observed. Compared with non-dust days, there was a 47% (95% CI: 29%, 68%) increase in visits in dust days not adjusting for PM10. Desert dust days were associated with higher numbers of emergency room visits for asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and respiratory infections with increases of 38%, 57% and 60%, respectively (p < 0.001 for all comparisons). Analyses of respiratory hospital admissions provided similar results. PM10 effects decreased when adjusting for desert dust days and were further confounded by co-pollutants. CONCLUSIONS: Desert dust episode days are associated with higher respiratory emergency room visits and hospital admissions. This effect is insufficiently explained by increased PM10 levels.

The risks of acute exposure to black carbon in Southern Europe: results from the MED-PARTICLES project.

OBJECTIVES: While several studies have reported associations of daily exposures to PM2.5 (particles less than 2.5 µm) with mortality, few studies have examined the impact of its constituents such as black carbon (BC), which is also a significant contributor to global climate change. METHODS: We assessed the association between daily concentrations of BC and total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in two southern Mediterranean cities. Daily averages of BC were collected for 2 years in Barcelona, Spain and Athens, Greece. We used case-crossover analysis and examined single and cumulative lags up to 3 days. RESULTS: We observed associations between BC and all mortality measures. For a 3-day moving average, cardiovascular mortality increased by 4.5% (95% CI 0.7 to 8.5) and 2.0% (95% CI 0 to 4.0) for an interquartile change in BC in Athens and Barcelona, respectively. Considerably higher effects for respiratory mortality and for those above age 65 were observed. In addition, BC exhibited much greater toxicity per microgram than generic PM2.5. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that BC, derived in western industrialised nations primarily from diesel engines and biomass burning, poses a significant burden to public health, particularly in European cities with high-traffic density.

Searching for the best modeling specification for assessing the effects of temperature and humidity on health: a time series analysis in three European cities.

Epidemiological time series studies suggest daily temperature and humidity are associated with adverse health effects including increased mortality and hospital admissions. However, there is no consensus over which metric or lag best describes the relationships. We investigated which temperature and humidity model specification most adequately predicted mortality in three large European cities. Daily counts of all-cause mortality, minimum, maximum and mean temperature and relative humidity and apparent temperature (a composite measure of ambient and dew point temperature) were assembled for Athens, London, and Rome for 6 years between 1999 and 2005. City-specific Poisson regression models were fitted separately for warm (April-September) and cold (October-March) periods adjusting for seasonality, air pollution, and public holidays. We investigated goodness of model fit for each metric for delayed effects up to 13 days using three model fit criteria: sum of the partial autocorrelation function, AIC, and GCV. No uniformly best index for all cities and seasonal periods was observed. The effects of temperature were uniformly shown to be more prolonged during cold periods and the majority of models suggested separate temperature and humidity variables performed better than apparent temperature in predicting mortality. Our study suggests that the nature of the effects of temperature and humidity on mortality vary between cities for unknown reasons which require further investigation but may relate to city-specific population, socioeconomic, and environmental characteristics. This may have consequences on epidemiological studies and local temperature-related warning systems.