Analysis of cerebrovascular mortality trends in Spain from 1980 to 2011. / Análisis de las tendencias en la mortalidad por enfermedades cerebrovasculares en España 1980-2011.

INTRODUCTION: In recent decades, mortality rates for cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) have declined significantly in many countries. This study analyses changes in CVD mortality rates in Spain (1980-2011) to determine if previously observed trends remain. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data on CVD mortality rates and the population data needed for the analysis were provided by Spain's National Statistics Institute. We calculated age-specific mortality rate, age-standardised overall mortality, and age-truncated mortality (35-64 years) using the direct method and standard European population structure. Joinpoint analysis was used to estimate the percentage of annual change in rates and identify significant changes in trends. RESULTS: CVD mortality rate decreased considerably and continuously over the last 32 years in all age groups and in both sexes in Spain. For both sexes, joinpoint analysis identifies a final period with more marked decline: 2005-2011 in women (-6.3%) and 2007-2011 in men (-7.2%). CONCLUSIONS: CVD mortality rates displayed a marked and continuous decline in Spain between 1980 and 2011. Due to the ageing of the population, doctors expect an increase in CVD prevalence and therefore its magnitude in terms of disability and healthcare costs, which poses a challenge to our health system.

Has stroke mortality stopped declining in Spain?

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the changes in stroke mortality trends in Spain by autonomous community and by sex during the period 1980-2016, using joinpoint regression models. METHODS: Mortality data were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Crude and standardised rates were calculated for each Spanish autonomous community, and for each sex. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify the best-fitting points showing a statistically significant change in the trend. RESULTS: Joinpoint analysis enabled us to differentiate between communities in which mortality rates showed a continuous decline throughout the study period in both sexes (Asturias, Cantabria, Castile and Leon, Ceuta, and Melilla) or in men only (Extremadura). In men, in all those communities in which changes in the trend were observed (all but Aragon, the Balearic Islands, and Murcia, where rates remained stable), we observed an initial period of decline (ranging from -3.4% in Catalonia and Extremadura, to -6.0% in Madrid) and a final period where the trends diverged: mortality rates continued to fall in Andalusia, Aragon, the Balearic Islands, and Madrid, but began to stabilise in Castile-La Mancha and Murcia and to increase in the Canary Islands. In women, in those communities where changes were observed (all but Aragon, Murcia, and the Basque Country, where rates remained stable), we observed an initial period of decline (ranging from -3.1% in Catalonia to -6.4% in Navarre) and a final period where divergent trends were observed: rates continued to decline in Andalusia, Aragon, Catalonia, Galicia, Madrid, and the Basque Country, but began to stabilise in Extremadura and Murcia and to increase in the Canary Islands. CONCLUSIONS: Current data show that stroke mortality rates have decreased (in women in Andalusia), stabilised (in both sexes in Murcia, in men in Castile-La Mancha, and in women in Extremadura), and have even reversed (in both sexes in the Canary Islands). Further study is needed to identify the causes of these trends.

Study of colorectal mortality in the Andalusian population.

OBJECTIVES: to provide up-to-date information and to analyze recent changes in colorectal cancer mortality trends in Andalusia during the period of 1980-2008 using joinpoint regression models. PATIENTS AND METHODS: age- and sex-specific colorectal cancer deaths were taken from the official vital statistics published by the Instituto de Estadística de Andalucía for the years 1980 to 2008. We computed age-specific rates for each 5-year age group and calendar year and age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 men and women. A joinpoint regression analysis was used for trend analysis of standardized rates. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify the years when a significant change in the linear slope of the temporal trend occurred. The best fitting points (the "join-points") are chosen where the rate significantly changes. RESULTS: mortality from colorectal cancer in Andalusia during the period studied has increased, from 277 deaths in 1980 to 1,227 in 2008 in men, and from 333 to 805 deaths in women. Adjusted overall colorectal cancer mortality rates increased from 7.7 to 17.0 deaths per 100,000 person-years in men and from 6.6 to 9.0 per 100,000 person-years in women Changes in mortality did not evolve similarly for men and women. Age-specific CRC mortality rates are lower in women than in men, which imply that women reach comparable levels of colorectal cancer mortality at higher ages than men. CONCLUSIONS: sex differences for colorectal cancer mortality have been widening in the last decade in Andalusia. In spite of the decreasing trends in age-adjusted mortality rates in women, incidence rates and the absolute numbers of deaths are still increasing, largely because of the aging of the population. Consequently, colorectal cancer still has a large impact on health care services, and this impact will continue to increase for many more years.

Recent trends in prostate cancer in Spain. / Tendencias recientes en cáncer de próstata en España.

OBJECTIVE: To assess recent trends in prostate cancer incidence, survival and mortality in Spain using updated data. SUBJECTS AND METHOD: Prostate cancer mortality data have been obtained from the National Institute of Statistics (INE). Incidence cases have been obtained from the databases Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) and European Cancer Information System. Joinpoint regression models were used for trend analysis. The results show the duration (years) of each trend, as well as the Annual Percent Change (APC) for each of them. The direction and magnitude of recent trends (last 5 years available) were evaluated using the percentages of Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC). RESULTS: Incidence rates increased significantly from 16.4 in 1980 to 61.3 in 2014. The joinpoint analysis shows three periods: two initial periods of significant rise (1980-1990; 3.5% and 1990-2004; 8.4%) followed by a final one in which rates stabilize (2004-2014; -0.5%, non-significant). Mortality rates drop from 12.9 in 1980 to 7.9 in 2018, with an AAPC of -1.2% (p<0.05). However, the joinpoint analysis identified three time periods: an initial period of statistically significant rise (1980-1998; APC: 0.6%, p<0.05) and two periods of decreasing rates (1992-2008; APC: -3.3%, p<0.05 and 2008-2018; APC: -2.4%, p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Recent trends (last 5 years) show that mortality rates have decreased and incidence rates have stabilized or even decreased in some age groups.

Analysis of cerebrovascular disease mortality trends in Andalusia (1980-2014). / Análisis de las tendencias en la mortalidad por enfermedades cerebrovasculares en Andalucía (1980-2014).

INTRODUCTION: In recent decades, mortality rates for cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) have decreased significantly in many countries. This study analyses recent tendencies in CVD mortality rates in Andalusia (1980-2014) to identify any changes in previously observed sex and age trends. PATIENTS AND METHODS: CVD mortality and population data were obtained from Spain's National Statistics Institute database. We calculated age-specific and age-standardised mortality rates using the direct method (European standard population). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate the annual percentage change in rates and identify significant changes in mortality trends. We also estimated rate ratios between Andalusia and Spain. RESULTS: Standardised rates for both males and females showed 3 periods in joinpoint regression analysis: an initial period of significant decline (1980-1997), a period of rate stabilisation (1997-2003), and another period of significant decline (2003-2014). CONCLUSIONS: Between 1997 and 2003, age-standardised rates stabilised in Andalusia but continued to decrease in Spain as a whole. This increased in the gap between CVD mortality rates in Andalusia and Spain for both sexes and most age groups.

Has stroke mortality stopped declining in Spain? / ¿Ha dejado de disminuir la mortalidad por enfermedades cerebrovasculares en España?

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the changes in stroke mortality trends in Spain by autonomous community and by sex during the period 1980-2016, using joinpoint regression models. METHODS: Mortality data were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Crude and standardised rates were calculated for each Spanish autonomous community, and for each sex. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify the best-fitting points showing a statistically significant change in the trend. RESULTS: Joinpoint analysis enabled us to differentiate between communities in which mortality rates showed a continuous decline throughout the study period in both sexes (Asturias, Cantabria, Castile and Leon, Ceuta, and Melilla) or in men only (Extremadura). In men, in all those communities in which changes in the trend were observed (all but Aragon, the Balearic Islands, and Murcia, where rates remained stable), we observed an initial period of decline (ranging from -3.4% in Catalonia and Extremadura, to -6.0% in Madrid) and a final period where the trends diverged: mortality rates continued to fall in Andalusia, Aragon, the Balearic Islands, and Madrid, but began to stabilise in Castile-La Mancha and Murcia and to increase in the Canary Islands. In women, in those communities where changes were observed (all but Aragon, Murcia, and the Basque Country, where rates remained stable), we observed an initial period of decline (ranging from -3.1% in Catalonia to -6.4% in Navarre) and a final period where divergent trends were observed: rates continued to decline in Andalusia, Aragon, Catalonia, Galicia, Madrid, and the Basque Country, but began to stabilise in Extremadura and Murcia and to increase in the Canary Islands. CONCLUSIONS: Current data show that stroke mortality rates have decreased (in women in Andalusia), stabilised (in both sexes in Murcia, in men in Castile-La Mancha, and in women in Extremadura), and have even reversed (in both sexes in the Canary Islands). Further study is needed to identify the causes of these trends.

Lung cancer mortality trends by geographical area in Spanish women, 1980-2005.

OBJECTIVE: To provide up-to-date information and analyse recent changes in lung cancer mortality trends among women. DESIGN: The present study analysed subjects by geographical area in Spain during the period 1980-2005 using joinpoint regression models. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASR) for lung cancer were computed from death certificate data obtained from the official authorities in Spain. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify the years when significant changes in the linear slope of the temporal trend occurred. RESULTS: The overall ASR changed during the period studied from 5.7 per 100,000 women in 1980 to 8.2/100,000 in 2005, with an average annual increase of 1.7%. Joinpoint regression analysis detected different trends in most Spanish communities. These changes occurred in the late 1980s or early 1990s. ASR among those women aged 35-64 years doubled during the period of study, from 5.6 in 1980 to 11.3 in 2005. CONCLUSIONS: Time trends in lung cancer mortality among women are increasing sharply, especially in the age group 35-64 years, indicating the start of an epidemic phenomenon of lung cancer in women.

[Recent changes in prostate cancer mortality in Spain. Trends analysis from 1991 to 2005]. / Cambios recientes en la mortalidad por cáncer de próstata en España: estudio de tendencias en el período 1991-2005.

OBJECTIVE: [corrected] To describe the evolution of prostate cancer mortality in Spain during the period 1991-2005. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: A trend analysis for age standardized mortality rates (European standard population) was performed, using joinpoint regression analysis, which allows estimation of the annual percent change of rates and to find significant changes in such trend. RESULTS: Age standardized mortality rates in Spain reached their peak value in 1996. The joinpoint analysis identified two different periods in the trend of the age standardized rates: a first one of increase in rates between 1991 and 1996 (2.1% annual increase) and a second period starting in 1996, in which rates decline at an annual rate of 2.7%. CONCLUSION: The tendency of prostate cancer seen in Spain resembles that of industrialized areas, with an increase in its age standardized death rates that suffers a downturn by the end of the past decade. Mortality declines for prostate cancer are now evident in 14 out of the 17 Autonomous Communities. Increases in PSA screening and better treatment of early-stage disease, possibly acting in combination, remain plausible hypotheses.

Age-period-cohort analysis of lung cancer mortality rates in Andalusia, 1975-2004.

Our objective is to describe lung cancer mortality trends in Andalusia, Spain, during the period 1975-2004 using age-period-cohort analysis (APC). For each gender, age-standardised (European Standard Population) mortality rates from lung cancer were computed based on the causes of death on the death certificates from the official registry of vital statistics in Andalusia. In men, after climbing considerably from 1975 to 1994, adjusted lung cancer mortality rates, have been declining by 0.8% per year since 1994. For women, the mortality from lung cancer was almost constant but tended to increase after 1994 (average annual increase of 2.1%). Among males, the cohort effect was steadily and appreciably upwards to the cohort born around 1905, then levelled off, and declined in the youngest generations. An increasing period effect was also observed until 1995. For females, cohort values decreased until the cohort born around 1930, then levelled off, and increased for women born since 1940. Period effect trend was downward until 1990, and upward thereafter. In conclusion, the cohort effect observed for women born since 1940 suggests the start of a lung cancer epidemic associated with a higher prevalence of smokers in women. The decrease in prevalence of smokers among males and the decrease in mortality in younger age groups suggest that the trend initiated in 1994 will continue as long as smoking prevalence continues to decrease.

[Diverging trends in prostate cancer mortality in the autonomous community of Andalucia (1975-2004)]. / Tendencias divergentes en la mortalidad por cáncer de próstata en la comunidad autónoma de Andalucía (1975-2004).

OBJECTIVE: To describe the evolution of prostate cancer mortality in Andalucia during the period 1975-2004 at the provincial level. SUBJECTS AND METHOD: Mortality data for prostate cancer and population denominator data was supplied by the Statistical Institute of Andalucia. Age group-specific and standardised overall and truncated (50-79 years old) rates were calculated by the direct method (European standard population). RESULTS: In 2004 there were 813 deaths in Andalucia from prostate cancer. Prostate cancer accounts for around 8% of male deaths from cancer. Joinpoint analysis shows three diverging trends (fall in Cadiz, Huelva and Malaga, rise in Granada and stabilization in the other provinces) in age-standardized mortality rates. CONCLUSION: In Granada, an increment in mortality from prostate cancer is observed in opposition to the trend in the other provinces.

¿Ha dejado de disminuir la mortalidad por enfermedades cerebrovasculares en España? / Has stroke mortality stopped declining in Spain?

Objetivos: Analizar los cambios en las tendencias de la mortalidad por enfermedades cerebrovasculares según comunidad autónoma y sexo en España durante el período 1980-2016 utilizando modelos de regresión joinpoint. Métodos: Los datos de mortalidad se obtuvieron del Instituto Nacional de Estadística. Para cada comunidad autónoma y sexo se calcularon las tasas brutas y estandarizadas. El análisis de regresión joinpoint se utilizó para identificar los puntos más adecuados donde se produjo un cambio estadísticamente significativo en la tendencia. Resultados: El análisis joinpoint permite diferenciar comunidades en las que las tasas muestran un descenso continuado a lo largo de todo el periodo en ambos sexos (Asturias, Cantabria, Castilla y León, Ceuta y Melilla) o solo en los hombres (Extremadura). En los hombres, en las comunidades en las que se observan cambios en la tendencia se aprecia, en todas ellas (excepto en Aragón, Baleares y Murcia, donde las tasas permanecen estables), un primer periodo de descenso, que oscila entre el −3,4% en Cataluña y Extremadura y el −6,0% en Madrid, y un periodo final donde las tasas muestran tendencias divergentes: siguen descendiendo en Andalucía, Aragón, Baleares y Madrid, han comenzado a estabilizarse en Castilla-La Mancha y Murcia y aumentan en Canarias. En las mujeres, en las comunidades en que se observan cambios en la tendencia se aprecia, en todas ellas (excepto en Aragón, Murcia y País Vasco, donde las tasas permanecen estables), un primer periodo de descenso, que oscila entre el −3,1% en Cataluña y el −6,4% en Navarra, y un periodo final donde las tasas muestran tendencias divergentes: siguen descendiendo en Andalucía, Aragón, Cataluña, Galicia, Madrid y País Vasco, han comenzado a estabilizarse en Extremadura y Murcia, y aumentan en Canarias. [...] (AU)

Objectives: To analyse the changes in stroke mortality trends in Spain by autonomous community and by sex during the period 1980-2016, using joinpoint regression models. Methods: Mortality data were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Crude and standardised rates were calculated for each Spanish autonomous community, and for each sex. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify the best-fitting points showing a statistically significant change in the trend. Results: Joinpoint analysis enabled us to differentiate between communities in which mortality rates showed a continuous decline throughout the study period in both sexes (Asturias, Cantabria, Castile and Leon, Ceuta, and Melilla) or in men only (Extremadura). In men, in all those communities in which changes in the trend were observed (all but Aragon, the Balearic Islands, and Murcia, where rates remained stable), we observed an initial period of decline (ranging from –3.4% in Catalonia and Extremadura, to –6.0% in Madrid) and a final period where the trends diverged: mortality rates continued to fall in Andalusia, Aragon, the Balearic Islands, and Madrid, but began to stabilise in Castile-La Mancha and Murcia and to increase in the Canary Islands. In women, in those communities where changes were observed (all but Aragon, Murcia, and the Basque Country, where rates remained stable), we observed an initial period of decline (ranging from –3.1% in Catalonia to –6.4% in Navarre) and a final period where divergent trends were observed: rates continued to decline in Andalusia, Aragon, Catalonia, Galicia, Madrid, and the Basque Country, but began to stabilise in Extremadura and Murcia and to increase in the Canary Islands. [...] (AU)

Patrón espacial de la mortalidad por EPOC en los municipios de Sevilla (2013-2017) / Spatial pattern of COPD mortality in the municipalities of Seville (2013-2017)

OBJETIVO: analizar el patrón espacial de la mortalidad por EPOC en los municipios de la provincia de Sevilla durante el período 2013-2017. SUJETOS Y MÉTODO: los datos de mortalidad por EPOC y las poblaciones necesarias para el cálculo de los indicadores fueron facilitados por el Instituto de Estadística de Andalucía. Para analizar el patrón espacial de la mortalidad por EPOC a nivel de los municipios de Sevilla se usaron tres estimadores de riesgo: la Razón de Mortalidad Estandarizada (RME), el Riesgo Relativo Suavizado (RRs) y la Probabilidad Posteriores (PP) de que el RRs sea mayor que 1. RESULTADOS: los valores de RRs en los hombres oscilan entre 0,95 en Mairena del Alcor y 1,9 en Badolatosa y El Real de la Jara y en las mujeres los valores oscilan entre 0,78 en La Puebla de Cazalla y 3,4 en Lora del Rio. Se observan 76 municipios en los hombres y 23 en las mujeres con una PP mayor o igual a 0,80. CONCLUSIÓN: nuestros hallazgos ayudan a identificar áreas de alto riesgo para futuros estudios más completos destinados a identificar los factores de riesgo específicos asociados con las áreas críticas observadas y para guiar los esfuerzos de control de la EPOC

OBJECTIVE: to analyze the spatial pattern of COPD mortality in the municipalities of the province of Seville during the 2013-2017 period. SUBJECTS AND METHOD: the COPD mortality data and the populations needed to calculate the indicators were provided by the Andalusian Institute of Statistics. To analyze the spatial pattern of COPD mortality at the level of the municipalities of Seville, three risk estimators were used: Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR), Relative Risk Smoothing (RRs) and Posterior Probability (PP) that the RRs is greater than 1. RESULTS: RRs values in men range between 0.95 in Mairena del Alcor and 1.9 in Badolatosa and Real de la Jara and in women the values range between 0.78 in La Puebla de Cazalla and 3.4 in Lora del Rio. There are 76 municipalities in men and 23 in women with a PP greater than or equal to 0.80. CONCLUSION: our findings help identify high-risk areas for more complete future studies to identify specific risk factors associated with the critical areas observed and to guide COPD control efforts

Has prostate cancer mortality stopped its decline in Spain?

OBJECTIVE: To describe the evolution of prostate cancer mortality in Spain during the period 1980-2013. SUBJECT AND METHOD: The prostate cancer mortality data and population data needed to calculate the indicators were provided by the National Institute of Statistics. We calculated the specific rates by age group, raw and standardised globally using the direct method (European standard population). The rates are expressed for 100,000 person-years. For the analysis of trends in the rates, we used joinpoint regression models. RESULTS: The overall rates adjusted for age in Spain decreased from 21.7 to 15.4 deaths per 100,000 men-years between the starting and ending date of the study period (annual percentage change: -.9%; P<.05). The joinpoint analysis reflects 2 periods: 1980-1998 (.7% annual increase; P<.05) and 1998-2013, during which the rates decreased significantly (-3%; P<.05). Except for the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla where the rates remained stable over the course of the study period, the communities showed 1 or 2 points of inflection in the trends, and all had a final period with a reduction in the rates (except for Galicia and Catalonia, where the rates stabilised in 2008-2013). CONCLUSION: The decline in prostate cancer mortality in Spain appears to have stopped in Galicia and Catalonia.

[Lung cancer mortality in Andalucia, 1975-2000]. / Mortalidad por cáncer de pulmón en Andalucia (1975-2000).

OBJECTIVE: To describe trends in lung cancer mortality in Andalucia, Spain, during the period from 1975 through 2000. SUBJECTS AND METHOD: Records of lung cancer deaths for the period from 1975 through 2000 were obtained from the Statistical Institute of Andalucia. The following indicators were calculated: crude rates, age-adjusted rates, truncated rates, and cumulative rates. RESULTS: Mortality rates for men dropped in all subject groups aged over 50 years during the period from 1994 through 2000. In women mortality rates were much lower, although we observed an increase in the 35-39 and 45-49 age groups, which is reflected in the 6.1% rise in the truncated rates (35-64 years) during the period from 1994 through 2000. In older women mortality rates fluctuated more within the different age groups, although on the whole the truncated rate for all those over 65 years old fell by 9.7% in the period between 1995 and 2000. CONCLUSION: Lung cancer mortality rates among men in Andalusia began to decrease after 1994. In contrast, mortality increased among young women, although their rates are still very low.

[Time analysis of mortality from cerebrovascular diseases in Andalucia (1975-1999)]. / Análisis temporal de la mortalidad por enfermedades cerebrovasculares en Andalucía (1975-1999).

INTRODUCTION: In previous publications we analysed the tendency of mortality from cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) in Andalusia over the period 1975-1992, and we observed a marked decrease in the mortality rates in both sexes. AIMS. To describe the evolution of mortality from CVD in Andalusia throughout the period 1975-1999. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Deaths from CVD over the period 1975 1999 were obtained from the Instituto Andaluz de Estadística. We employed the direct method of standardisation of rates (world standard population). The rates were subjected to logarithmic transformations and the regression lines were adjusted. RESULTS: A considerable decrease was found in the rates: 3.9% in males and 4.0% in females. The drop in truncated rates (35 64 years old) was greater in women ( 5.9%) than in men ( 4.3%). CONCLUSIONS: Our work shows a marked and continuous decrease in mortality from CVD in Andalusia (1975-1999). In accordance with the process of aging of the population, the magnitude of CVD measured in terms of deaths, invalidity and health costs still represents a great challenge for preventative and health care policies.

Análisis de las tendencias en la mortalidad por enfermedades cerebrovasculares en Andalucía (1980-2014) / Analysis of cerebrovascular disease mortality trends in Andalusia (1980-2014)

Introducción: En las últimas décadas las tasas de mortalidad por enfermedades cerebrovasculares (ECV) han descendido de forma importante en muchos países. En este estudio se analizan los cambios recientes en la evolución de la mortalidad por ECV en Andalucía (1980-2014) para verificar si las tendencias observadas previamente por sexo y grupos de edad continúan. Pacientes y métodos: Los datos de mortalidad por ECV y las poblaciones necesarias para el cálculo de los indicadores fueron facilitados por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística. Se calcularon las tasas específicas por grupos de edad y estandarizadas mediante el método directo (población estándar europea). Mediante análisis de regresión «joinpoint» estimamos el porcentaje de cambio anual de las tasas e identificamos puntos de cambio significativos en la tendencia. Además se han estimado las razones de tasas entre Andalucía y España. Resultados: Las tasas estandarizadas en ambos sexos muestran en el análisis joinpoint 3 periodos: un periodo inicial de descenso significativo (1980-1997), un periodo de estabilización en las tasas (1997-2003) y un periodo de marcado descenso significativo (2003-2014). Conclusiones: En el periodo 1997-2003 las tasas de Andalucía se estabilizaron, mientras que a nivel nacional las tasas continuaron descendiendo. Esto determinó un aumento en la brecha entre las tasas de Andalucía y España en ambos sexos y en la mayoría de los grupos de edad

Introduction: In recent decades, mortality rates for cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) have decreased significantly in many countries. This study analyses recent tendencies in CVD mortality rates in Andalusia (1980-2014) to identify any changes in previously observed sex and age trends. Patients and methods: CVD mortality and population data were obtained from Spain's National Statistics Institute database. We calculated age-specific and age-standardised mortality rates using the direct method (European standard population). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate the annual percentage change in rates and identify significant changes in mortality trends. We also estimated rate ratios between Andalusia and Spain. Results: Standardised rates for both males and females showed 3 periods in joinpoint regression analysis: an initial period of significant decline (1980-1997), a period of rate stabilisation (1997-2003), and another period of significant decline (2003-2014). Conclusions: Between 1997 and 2003, age-standardised rates stabilised in Andalusia but continued to decrease in Spain as a whole. This increased in the gap between CVD mortality rates in Andalusia and Spain for both sexes and most age groups

Lung cancer mortality in Spain: estimating the future burden to the year 2028.

OBJECTIVE: To use lung cancer mortality rates from 1979 to 2008 in Andalusia, southern Spain (population >8,000,000), to provide an estimate of the future number of deaths for the period 2009-2028. DESIGN: The numbers of lung cancer deaths from 1979 to 2008 were obtained from the Andalusian Institute for Statistics (AIS). Data were arranged in 5-year age groups using an age-period-cohort model. Age-standardised rates (ASR) per 100, 000 were calculated for males and females. Population projections for Andalusia 2009-2028 were downloaded from the AIS database. RESULTS: In males, the ASR varied from 46.1 in 2004-2008 to 34.6 in 2024-2028, with a projected 33% decrease. In females, the ASR varied from 4.9 in 2004-2008 to 8.9 per 100,000 in 2024-2028, with a projected 45% increase. This reflects an annual change of -1.3% for males and of +2.7% for females for the period 2009-2028. The sex ratio is projected to drop from a male:female ratio of 11 (1979-1983) to 3.8 (2024-2028). CONCLUSIONS: Our projections emphasise the significance of a continuously increasing trend in female lung cancer mortality, with a drop in the projected sex ratio.

Análisis de las tendencias en la mortalidad por enfermedades cerebrovasculares en España 1980-2011 / Analysis of cerebrovascular mortality trends in Spain from 1980 to 2011

Introducción: En las últimas décadas las tasas de mortalidad por enfermedades cerebrovasculares (ECV) han descendido de forma importante en muchos países. En este estudio se analizan los cambios recientes en la evolución de la mortalidad por ECV en España (1980-2011) para verificar si las tendencias observadas previamente continúan. Pacientes y métodos: Los datos de mortalidad por ECV y las poblaciones necesarias para el cálculo de los indicadores fueron facilitados por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística. Se calcularon las tasas específicas por grupos de edad y estandarizadas globales y truncadas (35-64 años) mediante el método directo (población estándar europea). Mediante análisis de regresión «joinpoint» estimamos el porcentaje de cambio anual de las tasas e identificamos puntos de cambio significativos en la tendencia. Resultados: La mortalidad por ECV se ha reducido de forma contundente y sostenida en los últimos 32 en todos los grupos de edad y sexo en España. En ambos sexos el análisis joinpoint identifica un periodo final de mayor descenso (2005-2011 [-6,3%] en mujeres y 2007-2011 en varones [-7,2%]). Conclusiones: Existe un marcado y continuo descenso en la mortalidad por ECV en España (1980-2011). Teniendo en cuenta el proceso de envejecimiento de la población, es esperable un incremento de la prevalencia y, por ello, de la magnitud de las ECV medida en términos de discapacidad y costes de salud, lo que representará un gran reto para nuestro sistema sanitario

Introduction: In recent decades, mortality rates for cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) have declined significantly in many countries. This study analyses changes in CVD mortality rates in Spain (1980-2011) to determine if previously observed trends remain. Patients and methods: Data on CVD mortality rates and the population data needed for the analysis were provided by Spain's National Statistics Institute. We calculated age-specific mortality rate, age-standardised overall mortality, and age-truncated mortality (35-64 years) using the direct method and standard European population structure. Joinpoint analysis was used to estimate the percentage of annual change in rates and identify significant changes in trends. Results: CVD mortality rate decreased considerably and continuously over the last 32 years in all age groups and in both sexes in Spain. For both sexes, joinpoint analysis identifies a final period with more marked decline: 2005-2011 in women (−6.3%) and 2007-2011 in men (−7.2%). Conclusions: CVD mortality rates displayed a marked and continuous decline in Spain between 1980 and 2011. Due to the ageing of the population, doctors expect an increase in CVD prevalence and therefore its magnitude in terms of disability and healthcare costs, which poses a challenge to our health system

Tendencias recientes en cáncer de próstata en España / Recent trends in prostate cancer in Spain

OBJETIVO: Evaluar las tendencias recientes de incidencia, supervivencia y mortalidad por cáncer de próstata en España utilizando datos actualizados. Sujetos y método: Las defunciones por cáncer de próstata se han obtenido del Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE). Los casos incidentes se han obtenido de las bases de datos Cancer incidence in five continents (CI5) y European Cancer Information System. Para el análisis de tendencias se usaron modelos de regresión joinpoint. En los resultados se muestran los años (período) que componen cada tendencia, así como el porcentaje de cambio anual (PCA) para cada una de ellas. La dirección y magnitud de las tendencias recientes (últimos 5 años disponibles) se evaluaron mediante los porcentajes de cambio anual medio (PCAM). RESULTADOS: Las tasas de incidencia aumentaron de forma significativa, pasando de 16,4 en 1980 a 61,3 en 2014. El análisis joinpoint muestra 3 períodos: 2 iniciales de incrementos significativos (1980-1990; 3,5% y 1990-2004; 8,4%) seguidos de uno final en el que las tasas se estabilizan (2004-2014; -0,5%, no significativo). Las tasas de mortalidad descienden pasando de 12,9 en 1980 a 7,9 en el año 2018, con un PCAM de -1,2% (p < 0,05). Sin embargo, el análisis joinpoint identificó 3 períodos de tiempo: un período inicial de aumento estadísticamente significativo (1980-1998; PCA: 0,6%, p < 0,05) y 2 períodos de disminución en las tasas (1992-2008; PCA: -3,3%, p < 0,05 y 2008-2018; PCA: -2,4%, p < 0,05). CONCLUSIÓN: Las tendencias recientes (últimos 5 años) muestran que las tasas de mortalidad han disminuido y que las tasas de incidencia se han estabilizado e incluso descendido en algunos grupos de edad

OBJECTIVE: To assess recent trends in prostate cancer incidence, survival and mortality in Spain using updated data. Subjects and method: Prostate cancer mortality data have been obtained from the National Institute of Statistics (INE). Incidence cases have been obtained from the databases Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) and European Cancer Information System. Joinpoint regression models were used for trend analysis. The results show the duration (years) of each trend, as well as the Annual Percent Change (APC) for each of them. The direction and magnitude of recent trends (last 5 years available) were evaluated using the percentages of Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC). RESULTS: Incidence rates increased significantly from 16.4 in 1980 to 61.3 in 2014. The joinpoint analysis shows three periods: two initial periods of significant rise (1980-1990; 3.5% and 1990-2004; 8.4%) followed by a final one in which rates stabilize (2004-2014; -0.5%, non-significant). Mortality rates drop from 12.9 in 1980 to 7.9 in 2018, with an AAPC of -1.2% (p < 0.05). However, the joinpoint analysis identified three time periods: an initial period of statistically significant rise (1980-1998; APC: 0.6%, p < 0.05) and two periods of decreasing rates (1992-2008; APC: -3.3%, p < 0.05 and 2008-2018; APC: -2.4%, p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Recent trends (last 5 years) show that mortality rates have decreased and incidence rates have stabilized or even decreased in some age groups