Frailty and the prediction of dependence and mortality in low- and middle-income countries: a 10/66 population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In countries with high incomes, frailty indicators predict adverse outcomes in older people, despite a lack of consensus on definition or measurement. We tested the predictive validity of physical and multidimensional frailty phenotypes in settings in Latin America, India, and China. METHODS: Population-based cohort studies were conducted in catchment area sites in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico, Peru, India, and China. Seven frailty indicators, namely gait speed, self-reported exhaustion, weight loss, low energy expenditure, undernutrition, cognitive, and sensory impairment were assessed to estimate frailty phenotypes. Mortality and onset of dependence were ascertained after a median of 3.9 years. RESULTS: Overall, 13,924 older people were assessed at baseline, with 47,438 person-years follow-up for mortality and 30,689 for dependence. Both frailty phenotypes predicted the onset of dependence and mortality, even adjusting for chronic diseases and disability, with little heterogeneity of effect among sites. However, population attributable fractions (PAF) summarising etiologic force were highest for the aggregate effect of the individual indicators, as opposed to either the number of indicators or the dichotomised frailty phenotypes. The aggregate of all seven indicators provided the best overall prediction (weighted mean PAF 41.8 % for dependence and 38.3 % for mortality). While weight loss, underactivity, slow walking speed, and cognitive impairment predicted both outcomes, whereas undernutrition predicted only mortality and sensory impairment only dependence. Exhaustion predicted neither outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Simply assessed frailty indicators identify older people at risk of dependence and mortality, beyond information provided by chronic disease diagnoses and disability. Frailty is likely to be multidimensional. A better understanding of the construct and pathways to adverse outcomes could inform multidimensional assessment and intervention to prevent or manage dependence in frail older people, with potential to add life to years, and years to life.

Prevalence, distribution, and impact of mild cognitive impairment in Latin America, China, and India: a 10/66 population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Rapid demographic ageing is a growing public health issue in many low- and middle-income countries (LAMICs). Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a construct frequently used to define groups of people who may be at risk of developing dementia, crucial for targeting preventative interventions. However, little is known about the prevalence or impact of MCI in LAMIC settings. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data were analysed from cross-sectional surveys established by the 10/66 Dementia Research Group and carried out in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Peru, Mexico, Venezuela, Puerto Rico, China, and India on 15,376 individuals aged 65+ without dementia. Standardised assessments of mental and physical health, and cognitive function were carried out including informant interviews. An algorithm was developed to define Mayo Clinic amnestic MCI (aMCI). Disability (12-item World Health Organization disability assessment schedule [WHODAS]) and informant-reported neuropsychiatric symptoms (neuropsychiatric inventory [NPI-Q]) were measured. After adjustment, aMCI was associated with disability, anxiety, apathy, and irritability (but not depression); between-country heterogeneity in these associations was only significant for disability. The crude prevalence of aMCI ranged from 0.8% in China to 4.3% in India. Country differences changed little (range 0.6%-4.6%) after standardization for age, gender, and education level. In pooled estimates, aMCI was modestly associated with male gender and fewer assets but was not associated with age or education. There was no significant between-country variation in these demographic associations. CONCLUSIONS: An algorithm-derived diagnosis of aMCI showed few sociodemographic associations but was consistently associated with higher disability and neuropsychiatric symptoms in addition to showing substantial variation in prevalence across LAMIC populations. Longitudinal data are needed to confirm findings-in particular, to investigate the predictive validity of aMCI in these settings and risk/protective factors for progression to dementia; however, the large number affected has important implications in these rapidly ageing settings.

Interactions between genetic admixture, ethnic identity, APOE genotype and dementia prevalence in an admixed Cuban sample; a cross-sectional population survey and nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence and incidence of dementia are low in Nigeria, but high among African-Americans. In these populations there is a high frequency of the risk-conferring APOE-e4 allele, but the risk ratio is less than in Europeans. In an admixed population of older Cubans we explored the effects of ethnic identity and genetic admixture on APOE genotype, its association with dementia, and dementia prevalence. METHODS: A cross-sectional catchment area survey of 2928 residents aged 65 and over, with a nested case-control study of individual admixture. Dementia diagnosis was established using 10/66 Dementia and DSM-IV criteria. APOE genotype was determined in 2520 participants, and genetic admixture in 235 dementia cases and 349 controls. RESULTS: Mean African admixture proportions were 5.8% for 'white', 28.6% for 'mixed' and 49.6% for 'black' ethnic identities. All three groups were substantially admixed with considerable overlap. African admixture was linearly related to number of APOE-e4 alleles. One or more APOE-e4 alleles was associated with dementia in 'white' and 'black' but not 'mixed' groups but neither this, nor the interaction between APOE-e4 and African admixture (PR 0.52, 95% CI 0.13-2.08) were statistically significant. Neither ethnic identity nor African admixture was associated with dementia prevalence when assessed separately. However, considering their joint effects African versus European admixture was independently associated with a higher prevalence, and 'mixed' or 'black' identity with a lower prevalence of dementia. CONCLUSIONS: APOE genotype is strongly associated with ancestry. Larger studies are needed to confirm whether the concentration of the high-risk allele in those with African ancestry is offset by an attenuation of its effect. Counter to our hypothesis, African admixture may be associated with higher risk of dementia. Although strongly correlated, effects of admixture and ethnic identity should be distinguished when assessing genetic and environmental contributions to disease risk in mixed ancestry populations.

The association between common physical impairments and dementia in low and middle income countries, and, among people with dementia, their association with cognitive function and disability. A 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: Chronic physical comorbidity is common in dementia. However, there is an absence of evidence to support good practice guidelines for attention to these problems. We aimed to study the extent of this comorbidity and its impact on cognitive function and disability in population-based studies in low and middle income countries, where chronic diseases and impairments are likely to be both common and undertreated. METHODS: A multicentre cross-sectional survey of all over 65 year old residents (n = 15 022) in 11 catchment areas in China, India, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico and Peru. We estimated the prevalence of pain, incontinence, hearing and visual impairments, mobility impairment and undernutrition according to the presence of dementia and its severity, and, among those with dementia, the independent contribution of these impairments to cognitive function and disability, adjusting for age, gender, education and dementia severity. RESULTS: Incontinence, hearing impairment, mobility impairment and undernutrition were consistently linearly associated with the presence of dementia and its severity across regions. Among people with dementia, incontinence, hearing impairment and mobility impairment were independently associated with disability in all regions while the contributions of pain, visual impairment and undernutrition were inconsistent. Only hearing impairment made a notable independent contribution to cognitive impairment. CONCLUSIONS: There is an urgent need for clinical trials of the feasibility, efficacy and cost-effectiveness of regular physical health checks and remediation of identified pathologies, given the considerable comorbidity identified in our population based studies, and the strong evidence for independent impact upon functioning.

Leg length, skull circumference, and the prevalence of dementia in low and middle income countries: a 10/66 population-based cross sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Adult leg length is influenced by nutrition in the first few years of life. Adult head circumference is an indicator of brain growth. There is a limited literature linking short legs and small skulls to an increased risk for cognitive impairment and dementia in late life. METHODS: One phase cross-sectional surveys were carried out of all residents aged over 65 years in 11 catchment areas in China, India, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico and Peru (n = 14,960). The cross-culturally validated 10/66 dementia diagnosis, and a sociodemographic and risk factor questionnaire were administered to all participants, and anthropometric measures taken. Poisson regression was used to calculate prevalence ratios for the effect of leg length and skull circumference upon 10/66 dementia, controlling for age, gender, education and family history of dementia. RESULTS: The pooled meta-analyzed fixed effect for leg length (highest vs. lowest quarter) was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.68-0.98) and for skull circumference 0.75 (95% CI, 0.63-0.89). While point estimates varied between sites, the proportion of the variability attributable to heterogeneity between studies as opposed to sampling error (I2) was 0% for leg length and 22% for skull circumference. The effects were independent and not mediated by family history of dementia. The effect of skull circumference was not modified by educational level or gender, and the effect of leg length was not modified by gender. CONCLUSIONS: Since leg length and skull circumference are said to remain stable throughout adulthood into old age, reverse causality is an unlikely explanation for the findings. Early life nutritional programming, as well as neurodevelopment may protect against neurodegeneration.

Contribution of chronic diseases to disability in elderly people in countries with low and middle incomes: a 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based survey.

BACKGROUND: Disability in elderly people in countries with low and middle incomes is little studied; according to Global Burden of Disease estimates, visual impairment is the leading contributor to years lived with disability in this population. We aimed to assess the contribution of physical, mental, and cognitive chronic diseases to disability, and the extent to which sociodemographic and health characteristics account for geographical variation in disability. METHODS: We undertook cross-sectional surveys of residents aged older than 65 years (n=15 022) in 11 sites in seven countries with low and middle incomes (China, India, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico, and Peru). Disability was assessed with the 12-item WHO disability assessment schedule 2.0. Dementia, depression, hypertension, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were ascertained by clinical assessment; diabetes, stroke, and heart disease by self-reported diagnosis; and sensory, gastrointestinal, skin, limb, and arthritic disorders by self-reported impairment. Independent contributions to disability scores were assessed by zero-inflated negative binomial regression and Poisson regression to generate population-attributable prevalence fractions (PAPF). FINDINGS: In regions other than rural India and Venezuela, dementia made the largest contribution to disability (median PAPF 25.1% [IQR 19.2-43.6]). Other substantial contributors were stroke (11.4% [1.8-21.4]), limb impairment (10.5% [5.7-33.8]), arthritis (9.9% [3.2-34.8]), depression (8.3% [0.5-23.0]), eyesight problems (6.8% [1.7-17.6]), and gastrointestinal impairments (6.5% [0.3-23.1]). Associations with chronic diseases accounted for around two-thirds of prevalent disability. When zero inflation was taken into account, between-site differences in disability scores were largely attributable to compositional differences in health and sociodemographic characteristics. INTERPRETATION: On the basis of empirical research, dementia, not blindness, is overwhelmingly the most important independent contributor to disability for elderly people in countries with low and middle incomes. Chronic diseases of the brain and mind deserve increased prioritisation. Besides disability, they lead to dependency and present stressful, complex, long-term challenges to carers. Societal costs are enormous. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust; WHO; US Alzheimer's Association; Fondo Nacional de Ciencia Y Tecnologia, Consejo de Desarrollo Cientifico Y Humanistico, Universidad Central de Venezuela.

The contribution of chronic diseases to the prevalence of dependence among older people in Latin America, China and India: a 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based survey.

BACKGROUND: The number of older people is set to increase dramatically worldwide. Demographic changes are likely to result in the rise of age-related chronic diseases which largely contribute to years lived with a disability and future dependence. However dependence is much less studied although intrinsically linked to disability. We investigated the prevalence and correlates of dependence among older people from middle income countries. METHODS: A one-phase cross-sectional survey was carried out at 11 sites in seven countries (urban sites in Cuba, Venezuela, and Dominican Republic, urban and rural sites in Peru, Mexico, China and India). All those aged 65 years and over living in geographically defined catchment areas were eligible. In all, 15,022 interviews were completed with an informant interview for each participant. The full 10/66 Dementia Research Group survey protocol was applied, including ascertainment of depression, dementia, physical impairments and self-reported diagnoses. Dependence was interviewer-rated based on a key informant's responses to a set of open-ended questions on the participant's needs for care. We estimated the prevalence of dependence and the independent contribution of underlying health conditions. Site-specific prevalence ratios were meta-analysed, and population attributable prevalence fractions (PAPF) calculated. RESULTS: The prevalence of dependence increased with age at all sites, with a tendency for the prevalence to be lower in men than in women. Age-standardised prevalence was lower in all sites than in the USA. Other than in rural China, dementia made the largest independent contribution to dependence, with a median PAPF of 34% (range 23%-59%). Other substantial contributors were limb impairment (9%, 1%-46%), stroke (8%, 2%-17%), and depression (8%, 1%-27%). CONCLUSION: The demographic and health transitions will lead to large and rapid increases in the numbers of dependent older people particularly in middle income countries (MIC). The prevention and control of chronic neurological and neuropsychiatric diseases and the development of long-term care policies and plans should be urgent priorities.

Incidence of dementia and association with APOE genotype in older Cubans.

OBJECTIVE: In an admixed population of older Cubans, the incidence and association of APOE and sociodemographic risk factors with dementia incidence was estimated. METHODS: A single-phase survey (baseline) of all over 65-year-olds residing in seven catchment areas in Cuba (n=2944) was conducted between 2003 and 2007. Dementia diagnosis was established according to DSM-IV and 10/66 criteria. APOE genotype was determined in 2520 participants. An incidence wave was conducted 4.5 years after cohort inception in order to estimate incidence and associations with sociodemographic risk factors of the APOE ε4 genotype. RESULTS: The incidence rate of DSM IV dementia was 9.0 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 7.2-11.3) and of 10/66 dementia was 20.5 per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 17.6-23.5). Older age, a family history of dementia and APOE ε4 genotype were independent risk factors for incident 10/66 dementia. APOE genotype was associated cross-sectionally with dementia prevalence, but the effect on the incidence of dementia was attenuated, and only apparent among those in the youngest age group. CONCLUSION: The incidence of dementia in the older Cuban population is relatively high and similar to levels reported in Europe and North-America. The study showed that the relationship between APOE ε4 and incident dementia is stronger in the younger-old than the older-old and that this change must be taken into account in models of dementia.

OBJETIVO: Em uma população miscigenada de cubanos idosos, estimamos a incidência de demência e a associação entre o genótipo da APOE e os fatores de risco sociodemográficos na incidência de demência. MÉTODOS: Realizamos uma pesquisa de uma fase (linha de base) de todos os idosos com mais de 65 anos residentes em sete áreas de Cuba (n=2944), de 2003 a 2007. O diagnóstico de demência foi estabelecido de acordo com os critérios do DSM-IV e do 10/66. O genótipo APOE foi determinado em 2520 participantes. Avaliação da incidência foi conduzida 4,5 anos após a linha de base, a fim de estimar a incidência e associações com fatores de risco sociodemográficos e o genótipo APOE ε4. RESULTADOS: A taxa de incidência de demência foi de 9,0 por 1000 pessoas-ano (IC 95% 7,2-11,3) de acordo com o DSM-IV e de 20,5 por 1000 pessoas-ano (IC 95%, 17,6-23,5) de acordo com o 10/66. Idade avançada, história familiar de demência e genótipo APOE ε4 foram fatores de risco independentes para a incidência de demência de acordo com os critérios do 10/66. O genótipo APOE foi associado com a prevalência de demência em estudo transversal, mas o efeito sobre a incidência de demência foi atenuado, e apenas aparente entre aqueles na faixa etária mais jovem. CONCLUSÃO: A incidência de demência na população cubana mais velha é relativamente alta, semelhante às relatadas na Europa e América do Norte. O estudo mostra que a relação entre APOE ε4 incidente e demência é mais forte entre os idosos mais jovens e que esta alteração deve de ser considerada em modelos de demência.