Changes in Sales of Vaping Products and Cigarettes Associated With the New York State Flavored Vaping Product Sales Restriction.

INTRODUCTION: New York (NY) implemented a statewide restriction on the retail sale of flavored vaping products to reduce availability of vaping products having youth-appealing flavors in 2020. We assessed the intended effects of the NY law on sales of flavored vaping products and explored whether policy implementation had unintended effects on consumer behavior by evaluating policy-associated changes in sales of combusted cigarettes, which could serve as more harmful substitute products for NY consumers of flavored vaping products. AIMS AND METHODS: We analyzed custom product-level weekly retail tobacco sales scanner data for NY and a comparison state (California [CA]) for convenience stores and other outlets from June 2018 through June 2021. We categorized flavor descriptors for vaping products as flavored or as tobacco or unflavored and categorized cigarettes as menthol or non-menthol. We used a difference-in-difference model to assess the effect of the sales restriction on unit sales of flavored and unflavored vaping products and menthol and non-menthol cigarettes in NY compared with CA. RESULTS: Following NY policy implementation, flavored and total vaping product sales decreased in NY relative to CA. Unflavored vaping product sales increased in NY, while menthol cigarette sales did not change significantly relative to CA sales. CONCLUSIONS: The NY flavored vaping product policy was associated with fewer sales of flavored and total vaping products. The increase in sales of unflavored vaping products did not suggest complete substitution, and sales data suggest that consumers did not turn to cigarettes after flavored vaping products became unavailable. IMPLICATIONS: This study provides evidence that NY's flavored vaping product policy is associated with reduced flavored vaping product access and sales. Our analyses of potential unintended consequences indicate that some consumers switched from flavored to unflavored vaping products, but that cigarette sales did not change concurrent with the policy which means that decreased availability of flavored vaping products did not result in vapers switching to cigarettes. NY's policy had its intended effect with limited unintended consequences.

Impact of regulatory tightening of the Hungarian tobacco retail market on availability, access and cigarette smoking prevalence of adolescents.

INTRODUCTION: Policies that reduce tobacco retail density to decrease tobacco use among the youth are critical for the tobacco endgame. This paper reviews a Hungarian tobacco regulatory measure, which, since 2013, has confined the sale of tobacco products exclusively to so-called National Tobacco Shops, summarises the changes in the national tobacco retail marketplace and reports on analyses of the impact of this intervention on illegal sales to minors and adolescent smoking behaviour. METHODS: We reviewed the available national statistical data on the structure and dynamics of the tobacco retail market. Changes in lifetime and current (past 30 days) use of cigarettes among Hungarian adolescents aged 13-17 years were assessed using data from international youth surveys on health behaviours collected in 2010-2020. RESULTS: Since the start of policy implementation, the density of tobacco shops in Hungary decreased by 85%, from 4.1 to 0.6 per 1000 persons. The prevalence of lifetime and current cigarette smoking among adolescents declined by 13-24 percentage points (pp) and by 4.8-15 pp, respectively. The rate of illegal sales of tobacco products to minors decreased by 27.6 pp, although the prevalence of compensatory access strategies, especially asking others to buy cigarettes for minors, increased. CONCLUSIONS: After a significant decrease in the nationwide availability of licensed tobacco retailers, Hungary experienced short-term reductions in youth smoking prevalence. However, the sporadic implementation of complementary, evidence-based tobacco control strategies might limit further declines in youth smoking initiation and tobacco product use.

A megastudy of text-based nudges encouraging patients to get vaccinated at an upcoming doctor's appointment.

Many Americans fail to get life-saving vaccines each year, and the availability of a vaccine for COVID-19 makes the challenge of encouraging vaccination more urgent than ever. We present a large field experiment (N = 47,306) testing 19 nudges delivered to patients via text message and designed to boost adoption of the influenza vaccine. Our findings suggest that text messages sent prior to a primary care visit can boost vaccination rates by an average of 5%. Overall, interventions performed better when they were 1) framed as reminders to get flu shots that were already reserved for the patient and 2) congruent with the sort of communications patients expected to receive from their healthcare provider (i.e., not surprising, casual, or interactive). The best-performing intervention in our study reminded patients twice to get their flu shot at their upcoming doctor's appointment and indicated it was reserved for them. This successful script could be used as a template for campaigns to encourage the adoption of life-saving vaccines, including against COVID-19.

A Comprehensive Qualitative Review of Studies Evaluating the Impact of Local US Laws Restricting the Sale of Flavored and Menthol Tobacco Products.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the quality of evidence on the effectiveness of local US laws restricting the sale of flavored tobacco products. METHODS: We conducted a systematic search and qualitative scoping review of English-language papers published through May 2020 that evaluated flavored tobacco sales policies implemented by US jurisdictions during 2010-2019. We constructed a conceptual model for flavored and menthol tobacco sales restriction outcomes, assigned GRADE quality of evidence ratings to policy outcomes evaluated through the included studies, and summarized factors that might explain weak or inconsistent findings. RESULTS: We found moderate to high quality of evidence associating policy implementation with reduced availability, marketing, and sales of policy-restricted products, and decreased youth and adult tobacco use of these products; however, policy exclusions and exemptions, implementation challenges, tobacco industry actions (e.g., marketing of concept-named flavored products; exploiting policy exemptions for certain store types), and consumer responses (e.g., cross-border or illicit purchasing) might undermine or mitigate intended policy effects. CONCLUSIONS: Flavored and menthol tobacco product sales restrictions implemented and evaluated in US jurisdictions appear to have achieved some of their intended outcomes; however, deficiencies in study designs, methods, and metrics could contribute to equivocal findings on quality of evidence associating policy implementation and outcomes. Gaps in the evidence are beginning to be filled with research using more rigorous study designs, improved measurement and analytic methods, and longer-term follow-up. IMPLICATIONS: In the absence of comprehensive federal action, US jurisdictions have the obligation to restrict flavored and menthol product sales to protect vulnerable populations from tobacco-related harms. The considerable expenditure of financial resources, political will, and time dedicated to policy adoption and implementation argue for evaluation studies designed to maximize the quality of evidence. This review offers generalizable insights into evaluation findings that can inform efforts to enhance tobacco control policy implementation and impact in the US and globally.

Changes in retail sales of tobacco products in Ontario after a menthol sales restriction.

BACKGROUND: Ontario, Canada prohibited menthol tobacco product sales beginning 1 January 2017. We measured retail sales of menthol cigarettes and possible substitute products before and after policy implementation in Ontario. METHODS: We licensed retail scanner data for tobacco product sales in Ontario and British Columbia (BC), a comparison province without a menthol tobacco policy at that time. We assessed changes in per capita unit sales (per 1000 people) from pre-policy (January-June 2016) to post-policy (January-June 2017) periods. Classification of cigarettes as menthol or non-menthol, or having menthol-suggestive descriptors ('green', 'blue', 'silver' and 'fresh'), was based on scanner data. RESULTS: Ontario menthol cigarette sales decreased 93%, from 596 to 40 packs per capita compared with a 2% decrease (696 to 679 packs per capita) in BC. Menthol capsule cigarette sales remained low in Ontario (<1% of total cigarette sales) but rose sixfold in BC. Although cigar sales data were unavailable, substitution appeared minimal; sales of non-menthol cigarettes increased 0.4% in Ontario (11 470 to 11 519 packs per capita) while vaping product sales decreased. Ontario had a larger increase in sales of cigarettes with menthol-suggestive descriptors (11% increase) than BC (3% increase). In Ontario, nearly all (>99%) pre-policy sales of cigarettes with 'green' menthol-suggestive descriptors were menthol cigarettes, but post-policy, 94% of 'green' cigarettes sold were non-menthol. CONCLUSIONS: Ontario's menthol policy was associated with a decrease in retail sales of cigarettes classified as menthol, with little evidence of product substitution. Understanding changes in sales of cigarettes with menthol-suggestive descriptors would be informative.

Sources of flavoured e-cigarettes among California youth and young adults: associations with local flavoured tobacco sales restrictions.

PURPOSE: This study compares access to flavoured JUUL and other e-cigarettes from retail, online and social sources among underage and young adult e-cigarette users who live in California jurisdictions that restrict sales of flavoured tobacco with the rest of the state. METHODS: An online survey used social media advertisements to recruit participants (n=3075, ages 15-29) who lived in one of nine jurisdictions that restrict sales (n=1539) or in the rest of state, and oversampled flavoured tobacco users. Focusing on past-month e-cigarette users (n=908), multilevel models tested whether access to flavoured JUUL and other e-cigarettes from retail, online and social sources differed by local law (yes/no) and age group (15-20 or older), controlling for other individual characteristics. RESULTS: The percent of underage users who obtained flavoured JUUL and other e-cigarettes in the past month was 33.6% and 31.2% from retail, 11.6% and 12.7% online, and 76.0% and 70.9% from social sources, respectively. Compared with underage and young adult users in the rest of California, those in localities that restrict the sales of flavoured tobacco were less likely to obtain flavoured JUUL from retail sources (Adjusted OR=0.54, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.80), but more likely to obtain it from social sources (Adjusted OR=1.55, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.35). The same pattern was observed for other brands of flavoured e-cigarettes. CONCLUSION: Although local laws may reduce access to flavoured e-cigarettes from retail sources, more comprehensive state or federal restrictions are recommended to close the loopholes for online sources. Dedicated efforts to curtail access from social sources are needed.

Expanding local sales restrictions on flavoured tobacco products to include menthol: retail sales changes in two Minnesota cities.

BACKGROUND: In 2018, Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota, expanded existing local sales restrictions on flavoured (non-menthol/mint/wintergreen) tobacco products ('flavour policies') to include menthol/mint/wintergreen-flavoured tobacco products ('menthol policies'). All policies included exemptions for certain store types. METHODS: We obtained weekly retail tobacco product sales for 2015 through 2019 from NielsenIQ for convenience stores and other outlets in the policy jurisdictions and two comparison areas (rest of the state of Minnesota and total USA). We standardised unit sales across product categories and used NielsenIQ-provided descriptors to classify products as menthol (including mint/wintergreen) or flavoured (non-menthol/non-tobacco). Using single group interrupted time series models, we analysed unit sales by product category and by flavour separately for each geography to assess associations between menthol policy implementation and trends in tobacco product unit sales. RESULTS: Following menthol policy implementation, unit sales of menthol cigarettes and menthol smokeless tobacco decreased in both cities, with smaller decreases in comparison areas. Flavoured cigar sales-which decreased following the flavour policies-further decreased after the menthol policies, while sales of menthol electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) increased in both cities and sales of flavoured ENDS increased in St. Paul. CONCLUSION: Expanding flavour policies to include menthol/mint/wintergreen was associated with significant decreases in unit sales of most menthol products and in total unit sales by tobacco product category. Increases in menthol and flavoured ENDS sales in these cities may be associated with legal sales by exempted retailers and/or illicit sales by non-compliant retailers, highlighting opportunities for retailer education and enforcement.

Poison Parasite Counter: Turning Duplicitous Mass Communications Into Self-Negating Memory-Retrieval Cues.

Disinformation in politics, advertising, and mass communications has proliferated in recent years. Few counterargumentation strategies have proven effective at undermining a deceptive message over time. This article introduces the Poison Parasite Counter (PPC), a cognitive-science-based strategy for durably countering deceptive communications. The PPC involves inserting a strong (poisonous) counter-message, just once, into a close replica of a deceptive rival's original communication. In parasitic fashion, the original communication then "hosts" the counter-message, which is recalled on each reexposure to the original communication. The strategy harnesses associative memory to turn the original communication into a retrieval cue for a negating counter-message. Seven experiments (N = 3,679 adults) show that the PPC lastingly undermines a duplicitous rival's original communication, influencing judgments of communicator honesty and favorability as well as real political donations.

Changes in cigarillo availability following implementation of a local flavoured tobacco sales restriction.

INTRODUCTION: Providence, Rhode Island (RI) was among the first US jurisdictions to enact a policy (effective 3 January 2013) restricting the retail sale of non-cigarette tobacco products with a characterising flavour other than the taste or aroma of tobacco, menthol, mint or wintergreen. We used scanner data to assess the impact of this sales restriction on retail availability of cigarillos, flavoured and otherwise, in Providence and a rest-of-state (ROS) comparison area. METHODS: Every unique cigarillo product-each indicated by a universal product code (UPC)-available for sale in RI from January 2012 to December 2016 was assigned to an exclusive flavour-name category (tobacco; explicit or concept flavour; or menthol/mint) based on characteristics in the scanner dataset and, as necessary, information from online websites. We calculated weekly unique cigarillo UPC counts and market share by flavour category and used difference-in-difference regression to assess prepolicy and postpolicy changes in counts and share in Providence relative to ROS. RESULTS: The prepolicy to postpolicy decrease in the number of unique cigarillo products available in Providence was 28.64 (±5.83) UPCs greater than the comparable decrease in ROS (p<0.05). The prepolicy to postpolicy increase in the number of unique concept-named flavoured cigarillo products in Providence was 6.08 (±2.31) UPCs greater than the increase in ROS (p<0.05). The postpolicy market share of concept-named flavoured cigarillos was higher in Providence (27.32%, ±1.77) than ROS (12.67%, ±1.67) (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: After policy implementation, Providence consumers were exposed to fewer cigarillo UPCs but a greater variety and proportion of concept-named flavoured cigarillos in the retail marketplace.

Cigarette and cigar sales in Hawaii before and after implementation of a Tobacco 21 Law.

INTRODUCTION: On 1 January 2016, Hawaii raised the minimum legal age for tobacco access from 18 to 21 years ('Tobacco 21 (T21)') statewide, with no special population exemptions. We assessed the impact of Hawaii's T21 policy on sales of cigarettes and large cigars/cigarillos in civilian food stores, including menthol/flavoured product sales share. METHODS: Cigarette and large cigar/cigarillo sales and menthol/flavoured sales share were assessed in Hawaii, California (implemented T21 in June 2016 with a military exemption), and the US mainland using the only Nielsen data consistently available for each geographical area. Approximate monthly sales data from large-scale food stores with sales greater than US$2 million/year covered June 2012 to February 2017. Segmented regression analyses estimated changes in sales from prepolicy to postpolicy implementation periods. RESULTS: Following T21 in Hawaii, average monthly cigarette unit sales dropped significantly (-4.4%, p<0.01) coupled with a significant decrease in menthol market share (-0.8, p<0.01). This combination of effects was not observed in comparison areas. Unit sales of large cigars/cigarillos decreased significantly in each region following T21 implementation. T21 policies in Hawaii and California showed no association with flavoured/menthol cigar sales share, but there was a significant increase in flavoured/menthol cigar sales share in the USA (7.1%, p<0.01) relative to Hawaii's implementation date, suggesting T21 may have attenuated an otherwise upward trend. CONCLUSIONS: As part of a comprehensive approach to prevent or delay tobacco use initiation, T21 laws may help to reduce sales of cigarette and large cigar products most preferred by US youth and young adults.

Implementation of a comprehensive flavoured tobacco product sales restriction and retail tobacco sales.

OBJECTIVE: San Francisco's comprehensive restriction on flavoured tobacco sales applies to all flavours (including menthol), all products and all retailers (without exemptions). This study evaluates associations of policy implementation with changes in tobacco sales in San Francisco and in two California cities without any sales restriction. METHODS: Using weekly retail sales data (July 2015 through December 2019), we computed sales volume in equivalent units within product categories and the proportion of flavoured tobacco. An interrupted time series analysis estimated within-city changes associated with the policy's effective and enforcement dates, separately by product category for San Francisco and comparison cities, San Jose and San Diego. RESULTS: Predicted average weekly flavoured tobacco sales decreased by 96% from before the policy to after enforcement (p<0.05), and to very low levels across all products, including cigars with concept-flavour names (eg, Jazz). Average weekly flavoured tobacco sales did not change in San Jose and decreased by 10% in San Diego (p<0.05). Total tobacco sales decreased by 25% in San Francisco, 8% in San Jose and 17% in San Diego (each, p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: San Francisco's comprehensive restriction virtually eliminated flavoured tobacco sales and decreased total tobacco sales in mainstream retailers. Unlike other US flavoured tobacco policy evaluations, there was no evidence of substitution to concept-flavour named products. Results may be attributed to San Francisco Department of Health's self-education and rigorous retailer education, as well as the law's rebuttable presumption of a product as flavoured based on manufacturer communication.

Differences in price of flavoured and non-flavoured tobacco products sold in the USA, 2011-2016.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist on whether there is differential pricing of flavoured and non-flavoured varieties of the same product type. We assessed price of tobacco products by flavour type. METHODS: Retail scanner data from Nielsen were obtained for October 2011 to January 2016. Universal product codes were used to classify tobacco product (cigarettes, roll-your-own cigarettes (RYO), little cigars and moist snuff) flavours as: menthol, flavoured or non-flavoured. Prices were standardised to a cigarette pack (20 cigarette sticks) or cigarette pack equivalent (CPE). Average prices during 2015 were calculated overall and by flavour designation. Joinpoint regression and average monthly percentage change were used to assess trends. RESULTS: During October 2011 to January 2016, price trends increased for menthol (the only flavour allowed in cigarettes) and non-flavoured cigarettes; decreased for menthol, flavoured and non-flavoured RYO; increased for flavoured little cigars, but decreased for non-flavoured and menthol little cigars; and increased for menthol and non-flavoured moist snuff, but decreased for flavoured moist snuff. In 2015, average national prices were US$5.52 and US$5.47 for menthol and non-flavoured cigarettes; US$1.89, US$2.51 and US$4.77 for menthol, non-flavoured and flavoured little cigars; US$1.49, US$1.64 and US$1.78 per CPE for menthol, non-flavoured and flavoured moist snuff; and US$0.93, US$1.03 and $1.64 per CPE flavoured, menthol and non-flavoured RYO, respectively. CONCLUSION: Trends in the price of tobacco products varied across products and flavour types. Menthol little cigars, moist snuff and RYO were less expensive than non-flavoured varieties. Efforts to make flavoured tobacco products less accessible and less affordable could help reduce tobacco product use.

Changes in cigar sales following implementation of a local policy restricting sales of flavoured non-cigarette tobacco products.

INTRODUCTION: On 3 January, 2013, the city of Providence, Rhode Island, began enforcing a restriction on the retail sale of all non-cigarette tobacco products with a characterising flavour other than tobacco, menthol, mint or wintergreen. We assessed the policy impact on cigar sales-which comprise 95% of flavoured non-cigarette tobacco products sold through conventional tobacco retail outlets (eg, convenience stores, supermarkets) in Providence-over time and in comparison to the rest of the state (ROS). METHODS: Weekly retail scanner sales data were obtained for January 2012 to December 2016. Cigar sales were categorised into products labelled with explicit-flavour (eg, Cherry) or concept-flavour (eg, Jazz) names. Regression models assessed changes in prepolicy and postpolicy sales in Providence and ROS. RESULTS: Average weekly unit sales of flavoured cigars decreased prepolicy to postpolicy by 51% in Providence, while sales increased by 10% in ROS (both p<0.01). The Providence results are due to a 93% reduction in sales of cigars labelled with explicit-flavour names (p<0.01), which did not change significantly in ROS. Sales of cigars labelled with concept-flavour names increased by 74% in Providence and 119% in ROS (both p<0.01). Sales of all cigars-flavoured and otherwise-decreased by 31% in Providence (p<0.01). We detected some evidence of product substitution and cross-border purchasing. CONCLUSIONS: The Providence policy had a city-specific impact on retail sales of flavoured cigars, which was attenuated by an increase in sales of concept flavour-named cigars. Products with concept-flavour names may avoid enforcement agency detection, and their continued sale undermines the intent of the policy.

Trends in Manufacturer-Reported Nicotine Yields in Cigarettes Sold in the United States, 2013-2016.

INTRODUCTION: A gradual reduction of cigarette nicotine content to nonaddictive levels has been proposed as an endgame strategy to accelerate declines in combustible tobacco smoking. We assessed manufacturer-reported nicotine yield in cigarettes sold in the United States from 2013 to 2016. METHODS: We merged machine-measured nicotine yield in cigarette smoke and pack characteristics obtained from reports filed by tobacco manufacturers with the Federal Trade Commission for 2013-2016 with monthly Nielsen data on US cigarette sales. Manufacturer-reported, sales-weighted, average annual nicotine yield was assessed, as were nicotine yield sales trends by quartile: markedly low (0.10-0.60 mg/stick), low (0.61-0.80 mg/stick), moderate (0.81-0.90 mg/stick), and high (0.91-3.00 mg/stick). Trends in overall, menthol, and nonmenthol pack sales, by nicotine yield quartiles over the study period and by year, were determined by using Joinpoint regression. RESULTS: During 2013-2016, average annual sales-weighted nicotine yield for all cigarettes increased from 0.903 mg/stick (95% CI, 0.882-0.925) in 2013 to 0.938 mg/stick (95% CI, 0.915-0.962) in 2016 (P < .05). For menthol cigarettes, yield increased from 0.943 mg/stick in 2013 (95% CI, 0.909-0.977) to 1.037 mg/stick in 2016 (95% CI, 0.993-1.081), increasing 0.2% each month (P < .05). Most pack sales occurred among high (41.5%) and low (30.7%) nicotine yield quartiles. Cigarette sales for the markedly low quartile decreased by an average of 0.4% each month during 2013-2016 (P < .05). CONCLUSION: During 2013-2016, manufacturer-reported, sales-weighted nicotine yield in cigarettes increased, most notably for menthol cigarettes. Continued monitoring of nicotine yield and content in cigarettes can inform tobacco control strategies.

Social Mobilization.

This article reviews research from several behavioral disciplines to derive strategies for prompting people to perform behaviors that are individually costly and provide negligible individual or social benefits but are meaningful when performed by a large number of individuals. Whereas the term social influence encompasses all the ways in which people influence other people, social mobilization refers specifically to principles that can be used to influence a large number of individuals to participate in such activities. The motivational force of social mobilization is amplified by the fact that others benefit from the encouraged behaviors, and its overall impact is enhanced by the fact that people are embedded within social networks. This article may be useful to those interested in the provision of public goods, collective action, and prosocial behavior, and we give special attention to field experiments on election participation, environmentally sustainable behaviors, and charitable giving.

Little filtered cigars: US sales, flavours, package sizes and prices.

OBJECTIVE: At least four varieties of little filtered cigars (LFCs) violate the US prohibition on flavoured cigarettes other than menthol. This study characterises the sales of prohibited products and other LFCs by flavour category and pack size, as well as the price of LFCs relative to cigarettes. METHODS: Using retail sales data for 2016, we computed the sales volume in dollars and equivalent units and the percentage of total sales by flavour and pack size for the USA by region and state. Paired t-tests compared the prices for LFCs and cigarettes sold in same-sized packs and cartons. RESULTS: LFC sales totalled 24 033 equivalent units per 100 000 persons in 2016. Flavoured LFC varieties accounted for almost half (47.5%) of the total sales. LFCs were sold in 12 different pack sizes, but 79.7% of sales were packs of 20. The price of 20-packs averaged $2.41 (SD=$1.49), which was significantly less than cigarettes (M=$5.90, SD=$0.85). Regional differences suggest a greater proportion of menthol/mint LFCs and lower prices in the South than in other regions. CONCLUSION: Classifying all LFCs as cigarettes would require that they be offered in a minimum package of 20, eliminate flavoured varieties other than menthol and increase prices through applicable state and local cigarette taxes.

National and state patterns of concept-flavoured cigar sales, USA, 2012-2016.

INTRODUCTION: Cigar sales have increased in the USA in recent years. A growing proportion of cigar sales are of flavoured varieties, many bearing ambiguous or 'concept' flavour descriptions (eg, Jazz). This study assessed US cigar sales by flavour category (ie, concept flavoured, characterising flavoured and tobacco), at national, regional and state levels. METHODS: Sales of cigarillos, large cigars and little cigars from chain, franchise and convenience stores, mass merchandisers, supermarkets, drug, dollar and club stores, and military commissaries during 2012-2016 were acquired from the Nielsen Company. US national-level and state-level sales, including District of Columbia, were analysed by flavour category. Flavour descriptors were classified as 'tobacco', 'characterising' or 'concept', based on Universal Product Code (UPC)-linked characteristics and brand website and consumer review descriptions. RESULTS: Cigar sales increased by 29% during 2012-2016, driven by a 78% increase in cigarillo sales. The proportion of concept-flavoured sales increased from 9% to 15%, while the proportion of sales decreased for tobacco (50% to 49%) and characterising flavours (eg, cherry) (41% to 36%). Cigarillos had the greatest increase in unique concept flavour descriptions (17 to 46 unique UPCs), with most sales occurring among Sweet, Jazz and Green Sweets concept flavours. By US region, total and concept-flavoured cigarillo sales were highest in the South. CONCLUSIONS: Flavoured cigars are increasingly labelled with concept flavours, including in areas with flavoured tobacco sales restrictions. Cigarillos are driving recent increases in US cigar and concept-flavoured cigar sales. It is important to consider concept flavours when addressing flavoured tobacco product sales and use.

Potential follow-up increases private contributions to public goods.

People contribute more to public goods when their contributions are made more observable to others. We report an intervention that subtly increases the observability of public goods contributions when people are solicited privately and impersonally (e.g., mail, email, social media). This intervention is tested in a large-scale field experiment (n = 770,946) in which people are encouraged to vote through get-out-the-vote letters. We vary whether the letters include the message, "We may call you after the election to ask about your voting experience." Increasing the perceived observability of whether people vote by including that message increased the impact of the get-out-the-vote letters by more than the entire effect of a typical get-out-the-vote letter. This technique for increasing perceived observability can be replicated whenever public goods solicitations are made in private.

Unacquainted callers can predict which citizens will vote over and above citizens' stated self-predictions.

People are regularly asked to report on their likelihoods of carrying out consequential future behaviors, including complying with medical advice, completing educational assignments, and voting in upcoming elections. Despite these stated self-predictions being notoriously unreliable, they are used to inform many strategic decisions. We report two studies examining stated self-prediction about whether citizens will vote. We find that most self-predicted voters do not actually vote despite saying they will, and that campaign callers can discern which self-predicted voters will not actually vote. In study 1 (n = 4,463), self-predicted voters rated by callers as "100% likely to vote" were 2 times more likely to actually vote than those rated unlikely to vote. Study 2 (n = 3,064) replicated this finding and further demonstrated that callers' prediction accuracy was mediated by citizens' nonverbal signals of uncertainty and deception. Strangers can use nonverbal signals to improve predictions of follow through on self-reported intentions-an insight of potential value for politics, medicine, and education.