Potential surrogate outcomes in individuals at high risk for incident knee osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To study potential surrogate outcomes for osteoarthritis (OA) incidence by evaluating the association of short-term changes in clinical and imaging biomarkers with long-term clinical knee OA incidence. DESIGN: Middle-aged women with overweight/obesity, but free of knee symptoms were recruited through their general practitioners. At baseline, after 2.5 years, and after 6.5 years, questionnaires, physical examination, radiographs, and Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans were obtained. The percentage of knees with a minimal clinically important difference for knee pain severity, Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain/stiffness/function, and joint space narrowing, and of those with progression/regression of medial knee alignment, chronic knee pain, radiographic osteophytes, and cartilage defects, bone marrow lesions, osteophytes, and effusion/synovitis on MRI were determined. For each of these potential surrogate outcomes with ≥10% improvement or progression in the population over 2.5 years, the association with incident clinical knee OA, defined using the combined ACR-criteria, after 6.5 years was determined. RESULTS: Most pre-defined potential surrogate outcomes showed ≥10% change in the population over 2.5 years, but only worsening of TF cartilage defects, worsening of TF osteophytes on MRI, and an increase in pain severity were significantly associated with greater clinical knee OA incidence after 6.5 years. These potential surrogate outcomes had high specificity and negative predictive value (89-91%) and low sensitivity and positive predictive value (20-28%) CONCLUSIONS: Worsening of TF cartilage defects and TF osteophytes on MRI, and increased pain severity could be seen as surrogate outcomes for long-term OA incidence. However, higher positive predictive values seem warranted for the applicability of these factors in future preventive trials.

Occurrence of comorbidity following osteoarthritis diagnosis: a cohort study in the Netherlands.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the risk of comorbidity following diagnosis of knee or hip osteoarthritis (OA). DESIGN: A cohort study was conducted using the Integrated Primary Care Information database, containing electronic health records of 2.5 million patients from the Netherlands. Adults at risk for OA were included. Diagnosis of knee or hip OA (=exposure) and 58 long-term comorbidities (=outcome) were defined by diagnostic codes following the International Classification of Primary Care coding system. Time between the start of follow-up and incident diagnosis of OA was defined as unexposed, and between diagnosis of OA and the end of follow-up as exposed. Age and sex adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) comparing comorbidity rates in exposed and unexposed patient time were estimated with 99.9% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: The study population consisted of 1,890,712 patients. For 30 of the 58 studied comorbidities, exposure to knee OA showed a HR larger than 1. Largest positive associations (HR with (99.9% CIs)) were found for obesity 2.55 (2.29-2.84) and fibromyalgia 2.06 (1.53-2.77). For two conditions a HR < 1 was found, other comorbidities showed no association with exposure to knee OA. For 26 comorbidities, exposure to hip OA showed a HR larger than 1. The largest were found for polymyalgia rheumatica 1.81 (1.41-2.32) and fibromyalgia 1.70 (1.10-2.63). All other comorbidities showed no associations with hip OA. CONCLUSION: This study showed that many comorbidities were diagnosed more often in patients with knee or hip OA. This suggests that the management of OA should consider the risk of other long-term-conditions.

Changes to consultations and diagnosis of osteoarthritis in primary care during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: General practitioners (GP) are often the first medical professionals to treat musculoskeletal complaints. Yet the impact of COVID-19 on primary care utilisation for musculoskeletal complaints is largely unknown. This study quantifies the impact of the pandemic on primary care utilisation for musculoskeletal complaints and specifically osteoarthritis (OA) in the Netherlands. DESIGN: We extracted data on GP consultations in 2015-2020 from 118,756 patients over 45 years of age and estimated reductions in consultations in 2020 as compared to 5-year average. Outcomes were GP consultations for: any musculoskeletal complaints, knee and hip OA, knee and hip complaints, and newly diagnosed knee and hip OA/complaints. RESULTS: The relative reductions in consultations ranged from 46.7% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 43.9-49.3%) (all musculoskeletal consultations) to 61.6% (95% CI: 44.7-73.3%) (hip complaints) at the peak of the first wave, and from 9.3% (95% CI: 5.7-12.7%) (all musculoskeletal consultations) to 26.6% (95% CI: 11.5-39.1%) (knee OA) at the peak of the second wave. The reductions for new diagnoses were 87.0% (95% CI: 71.5-94.1%) for knee OA/complaints, and 70.5% (95% CI: 37.7-86.0%) for hip OA/complaints at the peak of the first wave, and not statistically significant at the peak of the second wave. CONCLUSION: We observed 47% reduction in GP consultations for musculoskeletal disorders during the first wave and 9% during the second wave. For hip and knee OA/complaints, the reductions were over 50% during the first, and 10% during the second wave. This disruption may lead to accumulation of patients with severe OA symptoms and more requests for arthroplasty surgery.

The KNee OsteoArthritis Prediction (KNOAP2020) challenge: An image analysis challenge to predict incident symptomatic radiographic knee osteoarthritis from MRI and X-ray images.

OBJECTIVES: The KNee OsteoArthritis Prediction (KNOAP2020) challenge was organized to objectively compare methods for the prediction of incident symptomatic radiographic knee osteoarthritis within 78 months on a test set with blinded ground truth. DESIGN: The challenge participants were free to use any available data sources to train their models. A test set of 423 knees from the Prevention of Knee Osteoarthritis in Overweight Females (PROOF) study consisting of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and X-ray image data along with clinical risk factors at baseline was made available to all challenge participants. The ground truth outcomes, i.e., which knees developed incident symptomatic radiographic knee osteoarthritis (according to the combined ACR criteria) within 78 months, were not provided to the participants. To assess the performance of the submitted models, we used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROCAUC) and balanced accuracy (BACC). RESULTS: Seven teams submitted 23 entries in total. A majority of the algorithms were trained on data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative. The model with the highest ROCAUC (0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57-0.70)) used deep learning to extract information from X-ray images combined with clinical variables. The model with the highest BACC (0.59 (95% CI: 0.52-0.65)) ensembled three different models that used automatically extracted X-ray and MRI features along with clinical variables. CONCLUSION: The KNOAP2020 challenge established a benchmark for predicting incident symptomatic radiographic knee osteoarthritis. Accurate prediction of incident symptomatic radiographic knee osteoarthritis is a complex and still unsolved problem requiring additional investigation.

Medical students' perception of general practice: a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: An increase in the demand for general practitioners is expected in many countries, but only a minority of medical students consider a career in general practice. More detailed and up-to-date knowledge about medical student's perception of general practice would be helpful for efforts to encourage medical students to consider a career in general practice. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional single center survey among Dutch medical students to evaluate their perception of general practice at three different stages in their study: Ba1: first-year bachelor students; Ba3: third-year bachelor students; Ma3: third-year master students. The impact of different factors on their attitudes and perceptions was quantified. A multivariate logistic regression was performed with 'interest in general practice' as the outcome variable. RESULTS: The median age for Ba1 was 18 (IQR: 18-19) and 71.5% were female, for Ba3 the median age was 20 (IQR: 20-21) and 70.6% were female and for Ma3 the median age was 25 years (IQR: 24-26) and 73.3% were female. On average, 31.2% of the respondents had a migration background. The mean response rate for this study was 77.1%. Of the participating Ba1 students (n = 340) only 22.4% considered working as a GP after medical school; for Ba3 students (n = 231) this percentage was 33.8%, and for Ma3 students (n = 210) it was significantly higher at 70.5%; in the final multivariate model this corresponded to an odds ratio (OR) of 4.3 (95%-CI:2.6-6.9) compared to Ba1 students. The strongest predictor in the final model was the opinion that general practice provides a pleasant working environment (OR 9.5; 95%-CI: 6.2-14.5). CONCLUSION: This study showed that multiple factors are significantly related to medical students' interest in general practice. Although students believed that general practice does not have a high status within the medical profession, they acknowledged the social importance and the pleasant working environment of general practice. Knowledge obtained in this study can be used when designing a medical curriculum or a general practice course.

Associations between biomarkers of matrix metabolism and inflammation with pain and fatigue in participants suspected of early hip and or knee osteoarthritis: data from the CHECK study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the associations of biomarkers in serum [highsensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), serum cartilage oligomeric protein (sCOMP), serum propeptide of type I procollagen (sPINP) and serum osteocalcin (sOC)] and urine [urinary type II collagen telopeptide (uCTX-2)] with the extent and progression of nocturnal pain, pain while walking, and fatigue in participants with hip and/or knee pain suspected to be early stage osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: hs-CRP, uCTX-2, sCOMP, sPINP and sOC were measured at baseline in 1,002 participants of the Cohort Hip and Cohort Knee (CHECK). Nocturnal pain, pain while walking and fatigue were assessed by self-reported questionnaires at baseline and 2-year follow-up. Associations between these biomarkers and symptoms were examined using logistic and linear regression analyses. RESULTS: hs-CRP was significantly associated with mild nocturnal pain (OR 1.18 95% CI 1.01-1.37), with mild and moderate pain while walking (OR 1.17 95% CI 1.01-1.35 and OR 1.56 95% CI 1.29-1.90, respectively) and with progression of nocturnal pain (OR 1.25 95% CI 1.07-1.46). uCTX-2 was associated with mild nocturnal pain (OR 1.40 95% CI 1.05-1.85) and with mild and severe-extreme pain while walking (OR 1.35 95% CI 1.04-1.75 and OR 2.55 95% CI 1.03-6.34, respectively). sPINP was associated with severe-extreme nocturnal pain (OR 0.45 95% CI 0.25-0.82). No significant associations were found for sCOMP and sOC, nor for any of the biomarkers and fatigue. CONCLUSION: This study of biomarkers in a large cohort of participants with hip and/or knee pain suspected to reflect early stage hip and/or knee OA suggests that inflammation and cartilage matrix degeneration play a role in pain, but not in fatigue.

How does hip osteoarthritis differ from knee osteoarthritis?

Hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA) are leading causes of global disability. Most research to date has focused on the knee, with results often extrapolated to the hip, and this extends to treatment recommendations in clinical guidelines. Extrapolating results from research on knee OA may limit our understanding of disease characteristics specific to hip OA, thereby constraining development and implementation of effective treatments. This review highlights differences between hip and knee OA with respect to prevalence, prognosis, epigenetics, pathophysiology, anatomical and biomechanical factors, clinical presentation, pain and non-surgical treatment recommendations and management.

A lifespan approach to osteoarthritis prevention.

Prevention is an attractive solution for the staggering and increasingly unmanageable burden of osteoarthritis. Despite this, the field of osteoarthritis prevention is relatively immature. To date, most of what is known about preventing osteoarthritis and risk factors for osteoarthritis is relative to the disease (underlying biology and pathophysiology) of osteoarthritis, with few studies considering risk factors for osteoarthritis illness, the force driving the personal, financial and societal burden. In this narrative review we will discuss what is known about osteoarthritis prevention, propose actionable prevention strategies related to obesity and joint injury which have emerged as important modifiable risk factors, identify where evidence is lacking, and give insight into what might be possible in terms of prevention by focussing on a lifespan approach to the illness of osteoarthritis, as opposed to a structural disease of the elderly. By targeting a non-specialist audience including scientists, clinicians, students, industry employees and others that are interested in osteoarthritis but who do not necessarily focus on osteoarthritis, the goal is to generate discourse and motivate inquiry which propel the field of osteoarthritis prevention into the mainstream.

Are changes in meniscus volume and extrusion associated to knee osteoarthritis development? A structural equation model.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the interplay between (changes in) medial meniscus volume, meniscus extrusion and radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA) development over 30 months follow-up (FU). METHODS: Data from the PRevention of knee Osteoarthritis in Overweight Females study were used. This cohort included 407 middle-aged women with a body mass index ≥27 kg/m2, who were free of knee OA at baseline. Demographics were collected by questionnaires at baseline. All menisci at both baseline and FU were automatically segmented from MRI scans to obtain the meniscus volume and the change over time (delta volume). Baseline and FU meniscus body extrusion was quantitatively measured on mid-coronal proton density MR images. A structural equation model was created to assess the interplay between both medial meniscus volume and central extrusion at baseline, delta volume, delta extrusion, and incident radiographic knee OA at FU. RESULTS: The structural equation modeling yielded a fair to good fit of the data. The direct effects of both medial meniscus volume and extrusion at baseline on incident OA were statistically significant (Estimate = 0.124, p = 0.029, and Estimate = 0.194, p < 0.001, respectively). Additional indirect effects on incident radiographic OA through delta meniscus volume or delta meniscus extrusion were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Baseline medial meniscus volume and extrusion were associated to incidence of radiographic knee OA at FU in middle-aged overweight and obese women, while their changes were not involved in these effects. To prevent knee OA, interventions might need to target the onset of meniscal pathologies rather than their progression.

Towards developing diagnostic criteria for early knee osteoarthritis: data from the CHECK study.

OBJECTIVES: There is a general consensus that a shift in focus towards early diagnosis and treatment of knee OA is warranted. However, there are no validated and widely accepted diagnostic criteria for early knee OA available. The current study aimed to take the first steps towards developing diagnostic criteria for early knee OA. METHODS: Data of 761 individuals with 1185 symptomatic knees at baseline were selected from the CHECK study. For CHECK, individuals with pain/stiffness of the knee, aged 45-65 years, who had no prior consultation or a first consultation with the general practitioner for these symptoms in the past 6 months were recruited and followed for 10 years. A group of 36 experts (17 general practitioners and 19 secondary care physicians) evaluated the medical records in pairs to diagnose the presence of clinically relevant knee OA 5-10 years after enrolment. A backward selection methods was used to create predictive models based on pre-defined baseline factors from history taking, physical examination, radiography and blood testing, using the experts' diagnoses as gold standard outcome. RESULTS: Prevalence of clinically relevant knee OA during follow-up was 37%. Created models contained 7-11 baseline factors and obtained an area under the curve between 0.746 (0.002) and 0.764 (0.002). CONCLUSION: The obtained diagnostic models for early knee OA had 'fair' predictive ability in individuals presenting with knee pain in primary care. Further modelling and validation of the identified predictive factors is required to obtain clinically feasible and relevant diagnostic criteria for early knee OA.

The clinical and radiographic course of early knee and hip osteoarthritis over 10 years in CHECK (Cohort Hip and Cohort Knee).

OBJECTIVE: To describe the radiographic and symptomatic course in subjects with hip or knee complaints suspected of early osteoarthritis (OA). DESIGN: CHECK (Cohort Hip and Cohort Knee) is a multicenter, prospective observational cohort study of 1,002 subjects with first complaints in knee(s) and/or hip(s) (age 56 ± 5 years; 79% female; body mass index (BMI) 26 ± 4 kg/m2). Visits took place at baseline and at 2, 5, 8, and 10 year follow-up. At each visit, questionnaires were administered, physical examination performed, and X-ray images obtained. Clinical OA was defined according to the clinical American College of Rheumatism (ACR) criteria. Radiographic OA (ROA) was defined as Kellgren and Lawrence score (K&L) ≥2. RESULTS: 83% of the subjects reported knee pain, 59% hip pain, and 42% reported both hip and knee pain at baseline. 85% of the subjects completed 10-year follow-up. Pain scores remained rather stable over time, although individual scores fluctuated. A total of 138 subjects never fulfilled the clinical American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria. 60% (n = 601) had ROA in one or both knees, and 51% (n = 513) had ROA in one or both hips at 10 years. Only 13.5% of the subjects did not develop ROA after 10 years. Most joint replacements (n = 52 (57%)) took place in subjects with multiple affected joints. CONCLUSIONS: The symptomatic course in subjects with hip or knee complaints suspected of OA remained fairly stable on population level, though individual scores fluctuated. The radiological course was progressive, with joint replacements particularly in subjects with both hip and knee OA.

Inflammatory cytokines mediate the effects of diet and exercise on pain and function in knee osteoarthritis independent of BMI.

OBJECTIVE: Diet restriction and exercise form key treatments for osteoarthritis (OA) related symptoms in overweight and obese individuals. Although both interventions are known to influence systemic low-grade inflammation, which is related to pain levels and functional limitations, little is known about the potential changes in systemic inflammation as a working mechanism of diet restriction and exercise in knee OA. DESIGN: Data from the Arthritis, Diet, and Activity Promotion Trial (ADAPT) were used. Through causal mediation analyses, the proportion of the effect of a 18 months diet and exercise intervention explained by the 18 months change in interleukin (IL)-6, TNF-α, soluble IL-6 receptor, soluble IL-1 receptor, CRP, and BMI were assessed, using self-reported pain and function as outcomes. RESULTS: The change in inflammatory factors accounted for 15% of the total effect on pain and was totally independent of the change in BMI. The change in inflammatory factors accounted for 29% of the effect on function, with the change in BMI adding only 4% to the total mediated effect. CONCLUSIONS: The change in inflammatory factors after the diet and exercise intervention was a 'medium' size mediator of the effect on pain and a 'strong' mediator for the effect on function in overweight and obese individuals with knee OA. The change in BMI added minimally to the mediated effect on function. These results highlight the relevance of changes in systemic inflammation as drivers for clinically relevant effects after diet and exercise in overweight and obese individuals with knee OA.

Do we need another trial on exercise in patients with knee osteoarthritis?: No new trials on exercise in knee OA.

OBJECTIVE: We aim to investigate if we need additional trials on exercise in knee osteoarthritis (OA) to accept a certain effect size to be a 'true' effect size, and new studies are not needed anymore. DESIGN: We performed a secondary analyses of a meta-analysis of studies on patients with knee osteoarthritis, on pain immediately post treatment. We performed five different analysis: a) we evaluated publication bias, b) we performed subgroup analysis, c) a sensitivity analysis based on the overall risk of bias (RoB) score, d) a cumulative meta-analysis and e) we developed an extended funnel plot to explore the potential impact of a new study on the summary effect estimate. RESULTS: We included 42 studies with in total 6863 patients. The analyses showed that a) there is no clear publication bias, b) subgrouping did not affect the overall effect estimate, c) the effect estimate of exercise is more consistent (no heterogeneity) in the studies of low RoB, d) the benefit of exercise was clear since 2010 and e) the extended funnel plot suggests that an additional study has a none or very limited impact to change the current effect estimate. CONCLUSION: Exercise is effective and clinically worthwhile in reducing pain immediately post treatment compared to no or minimal interventions in patients with knee OA and adding new data will unlikely change this conclusion.

Osteoarthritis year in review 2017: rehabilitation and outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this systematic review was to describe studies examining rehabilitation for people with osteoarthritis (OA) and to summarize findings from selected key systematic reviews (SRs) and randomized controlled trials (RCTs). DESIGN: A systematic search was performed using Pubmed, Embase and Cochrane databases from April 1st 2016 to May 15th 2017 using the terms 'osteoarthritis', 'randomized controlled trial', and 'systematic review'. Inclusion criteria were: clinically or radiologically diagnosed patients with OA, rehabilitation treatment, RCT or SRs. A selection of the included studies is discussed based on study quality and perceived importance to the field; including those that are innovative, inform the direction of the field or generate controversy. Methodological quality of the included studies was assessed using the PEDro-scale for RCTs and the Amstar guideline for SRs. RESULTS: From 1211 articles, 80 articles met the eligibility criteria including 21 SRs and 61 RCTs. The median of the methodological quality of the SRs and RCTs was 7 (2-9) and 6 (3-10), respectively. The studies were grouped into several themes, covering the most important rehabilitation fields. CONCLUSIONS: Striking is the small number of studies investigating another joint (18%) than the knee (82%). Exercise is the most common treatment evaluated and should be accompanied with education to effectuate a behavioural change in physical activity of people with OA. No new insights in the field of braces (or orthoses) and in the field of acupuncture were found.

Effect of weight change on progression of knee OA structural features assessed by MRI in overweight and obese women.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effects of weight change on progression of knee osteoarthritis (OA) structural features by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in overweight and obese women without clinical knee OA. DESIGN: 347 participants from the Prevention of Knee Osteoarthritis in Overweight Females (PROOF) study were classified with latent class growth analysis into a subgroup with steady weight (n = 260; +0.1 ± 4.0 kg, +0.2 ± 4.4%), weight gain (n = 43; +8.6 ± 4.0 kg, +9.8 ± 4.1%) or weight loss (n = 44; -9.0 ± 7.2 kg, -9.8 ± 7.5%) over 2.5 years. Baseline and follow-up 1.5T MRIs were scored with MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score (MOAKS) for progression of bone marrow lesions (BMLs), cartilage defects, osteophytes, meniscal abnormalities, meniscal extrusion and synovitis. Associations between subgroups and change in MRI features at knee-level were assessed using adjusted Generalized Estimating Equations. RESULTS: 687 knees from 347 women (median age 55.2 years, interquartile range (IQR) 5.5, median body mass index (BMI) 31.2 kg/m2, IQR 5.3) were analyzed. Progression of synovitis was 18% in the weight gain vs 7% in the stable weight subgroup (OR 2.88; 95%CI 1.39-5.94). The odds for progression of patellofemoral (PF) BMLs and cartilage defects increased with 62% (OR 1.62; 95%CI 0.92-2.84) and 53% (OR 1.53; 95%CI 0.92-2.56) in the weight gain vs the stable weight subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: In overweight and obese women, progression of synovitis increased more than 2.5 times in a weight gain compared to a stable weight subgroup over 2.5 years. Large effect sizes were also found for the difference in progression of PF BMLs and PF cartilage defects between the weight gain and stable weight subgroup.

A sex-specific association between incident radiographic osteoarthritis of hip or knee and incident peripheral arterial calcifications: 8-year prospective data from Cohort Hip and Cohort Knee (CHECK).

OBJECTIVES: There is sparse evidence for a relationship between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and osteoarthritis (OA). We investigated the association between incidence of arterial calcifications and incidence of radiographic knee and/or hip OA. DESIGN: We used baseline and 8-year follow-up data of Cohort Hip and Cohort Knee (CHECK). Knees and hips were either Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grade 0 or 1 at baseline. Arterial calcifications were scored on hip and knee radiographs using a four-grade scale. Scores were summed for patient-level analyses. To investigate incidence, participants with arterial calcifications at baseline or missing follow-up were excluded. Incident OA was defined per joint as KL ≥ 2 or prosthesis at year eight. The association between incidenct of arterial calcifications and incident OA was studied using mixed-effects logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 763 participants included, 623 (82%) were women. Mean (sd) age was 56 (5.1) years, mean (sd) body mass index (BMI) 26.2 (4.1) kg/m2. Arterial calcifications developed in 174 participants (283 joints). OA developed in 456 participants (778 joints). Sex modified the association between arterial calcification and OA. In women, incident arterial calcification around a joint was positively associated with incident OA in that joint (adjusted OR 2.51 (95% CI 1.57-4.03)). In men, no association was observed on joint-level, but at patient-level the arterial calcification sum score was negatively associated with incident OA (adjusted OR per point increase 0.70 (95% CI 0.54-0.90)) indicating a systemic effect. CONCLUSIONS: We observed sex-dependent associations between incident arterial calcification and incident radiographic knee and/or hip OA, which differs between joint- and patient-level.

Factors associated with meniscal body extrusion on knee MRI in overweight and obese women.

OBJECTIVE: To determine factors associated with higher degree of meniscal body extrusion in overweight and obese women at high risk of knee osteoarthritis (OA). DESIGN: We used baseline data of the PRevention of knee Osteoarthritis in Overweight Females (PROOF) study, Netherlands, comprising overweight or obese women aged 50-60 years, free of clinical knee OA. All subjects completed a questionnaire on knee complaints and physical activity, underwent physical examination, radiography, and 1.5 T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of both knees. Using the mid-coronal MRI slice, one blinded observer measured tibial plateau width and meniscal body extrusion of both menisci in both knees. The association between baseline factors and meniscal extrusion, were analyzed with a random effects regression model. In addition, we used a fixed effect regression model for evaluation of knee-specific factors. RESULTS: Mean age of the included women (n = 395) was 55.7 years and mean body mass index (BMI) 32.4 kg/m2. Of all knees, 23% had an absolute medial meniscus body extrusion ≥3.0 mm and 4% had lateral meniscus body extrusion ≥3.0 mm. In the multivariable model, the medial meniscus extrusion was increased by 0.44 mm (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.11, 0.77) when a medial meniscus tear was present, by 0.20 mm per 5 kg/m2 (95% CI 0.05, 0.35) increase in BMI and by 0.25 in the presence of mild knee symptoms (95% CI 0.05 to 0.44). Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grade ≥1 and tibia width were associated with increased both medial and lateral extrusion. CONCLUSION: In women, ipsilateral meniscus tear and high BMI are factors associated with medial meniscus body extrusion.

A machine learning approach for the identification of new biomarkers for knee osteoarthritis development in overweight and obese women.

OBJECTIVE: Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is among the higher contributors to global disability. Despite its high prevalence, currently, there is no cure for this disease. Furthermore, the available diagnostic approaches have large precision errors and low sensitivity. Therefore, there is a need for new biomarkers to correctly identify early knee OA. METHOD: We have created an analytics pipeline based on machine learning to identify small models (having few variables) that predict the 30-months incidence of knee OA (using multiple clinical and structural OA outcome measures) in overweight middle-aged women without knee OA at baseline. The data included clinical variables, food and pain questionnaires, biochemical markers (BM) and imaging-based information. RESULTS: All the models showed high performance (AUC > 0.7) while using only a few variables. We identified both the importance of each variable within the models as well its direction. Finally, we compared the performance of two models with the state-of-the-art approaches available in the literature. CONCLUSIONS: We showed the potential of applying machine learning to generate predictive models for the knee OA incidence. Imaging-based information were found particularly important in the proposed models. Furthermore, our analysis confirmed the relevance of known BM for knee OA. Overall, we propose five highly predictive small models that can be possibly adopted for an early prediction of knee OA.

Baseline meniscal extrusion associated with incident knee osteoarthritis after 30 months in overweight and obese women.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between baseline meniscal extrusion and the incidence of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) after 30 months in a high-risk population of overweight and obese women, free of clinical and radiological KOA at baseline. METHODS: 407 middle-aged overweight women (body mass index - BMI ≥ 27 kg/m2) were evaluated at baseline and after 30 months of follow-up. Meniscal extrusion was defined as grade ≥2 on MRI according to MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score (MOAKS). The primary outcome measure was KOA after 30 months follow-up, defined using the following criteria: either incidence of radiographic KOA (Kellgren & Lawrence grade 2 or higher), or clinical osteoarthritis (OA) according to the American College of Radiology (ACR) criteria, or medial or lateral joint space narrowing (JSN) of ≥1.0 mm. Using generalized estimating equations (GEE), we determined the association between knees with and without meniscal extrusion and both outcomes, corrected for the baseline differences. RESULTS: 640 knees were available at baseline of which 24% (153) had meniscal extrusion. There was a significantly higher incidence of KOA according to the primary outcome measure in women with meniscal extrusion compared to those without extrusion (28.8%, odds ratio - OR 2.39, 95% CI 1.53, 3.73). A significantly higher incidence was found for the development of radiographic KOA (12.4%, OR 2.61, 95% CI 1.11, 6.13) and medial JSN (11.8%, OR 3.19, 95% CI 1.59, 6.41). Meniscal extrusion was not significantly associated with clinical KOA and lateral JSN. CONCLUSION: Meniscal extrusion was associated with a significantly higher incidence of KOA, providing an interesting target for early detection of individuals at risk for developing KOA.