Projecting hospital utilization during the COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States.

In the wake of community coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission in the United States, there is a growing public health concern regarding the adequacy of resources to treat infected cases. Hospital beds, intensive care units (ICUs), and ventilators are vital for the treatment of patients with severe illness. To project the timing of the outbreak peak and the number of ICU beds required at peak, we simulated a COVID-19 outbreak parameterized with the US population demographics. In scenario analyses, we varied the delay from symptom onset to self-isolation, the proportion of symptomatic individuals practicing self-isolation, and the basic reproduction number R0 Without self-isolation, when R0 = 2.5, treatment of critically ill individuals at the outbreak peak would require 3.8 times more ICU beds than exist in the United States. Self-isolation by 20% of cases 24 h after symptom onset would delay and flatten the outbreak trajectory, reducing the number of ICU beds needed at the peak by 48.4% (interquartile range 46.4-50.3%), although still exceeding existing capacity. When R0 = 2, twice as many ICU beds would be required at the peak of outbreak in the absence of self-isolation. In this scenario, the proportional impact of self-isolation within 24 h on reducing the peak number of ICU beds is substantially higher at 73.5% (interquartile range 71.4-75.3%). Our estimates underscore the inadequacy of critical care capacity to handle the burgeoning outbreak. Policies that encourage self-isolation, such as paid sick leave, may delay the epidemic peak, giving a window of time that could facilitate emergency mobilization to expand hospital capacity.

The Global Diet Quality Score Is Inversely Associated with Nutrient Inadequacy, Low Midupper Arm Circumference, and Anemia in Rural Adults in Ten Sub-Saharan African Countries.

BACKGROUND: Key nutrient deficits remain widespread throughout sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) whereas noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) now cause one-third of deaths. Easy-to-use metrics are needed to track contributions of diet quality to this double burden. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated comparative performance of a novel food-based Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) against other diet metrics in capturing nutrient adequacy and undernutrition in rural SSA adults. METHODS: We scored the GDQS, Minimum Dietary Diversity-Women (MDD-W), and Alternative Healthy Eating Index-2010 (AHEI-2010) using FFQ data from rural men and nonpregnant, nonlactating women of reproductive age (15-49 y) in 10 SSA countries. We evaluated Spearman correlations between metrics and energy-adjusted nutrient intakes, and age-adjusted associations with BMI, midupper arm circumference (MUAC), and hemoglobin in regression models. RESULTS: Correlations between the GDQS and an energy-adjusted aggregate measure of dietary protein, fiber, calcium, iron, zinc, vitamin A, folate, and vitamin B-12 adequacy were 0.34 (95% CI: 0.30, 0.38) in men and 0.37 (95% CI: 0.32, 0.41) in women. The GDQS was associated (P < 0.05) with lower odds of low MUAC [GDQS quintile (Q) 5 compared with Q1 OR in men: 0.44, 95% CI: 0.22, 0.85; women: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.31, 1.03] and anemia (Q5/Q1 OR in men: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.32, 0.98; women: 0.60, 95% CI: 0.35, 1.01). The MDD-W correlated better with some nutrient intakes, though associated marginally with low MUAC in men (P = 0.07). The AHEI-2010 correlated better with fatty acid intakes, though associated marginally with low MUAC (P = 0.06) and anemia (P = 0.14) in women. Overweight/obesity prevalence was low, and neither the GDQS, MDD-W, nor AHEI-2010 were predictive. CONCLUSIONS: The GDQS performed comparably with the MDD-W in capturing nutrient adequacy-related outcomes in rural SSA. Given limited data on NCD outcomes and the cross-sectional study design, prospective studies are warranted to assess GDQS performance in capturing NCD outcomes in SSA.

Agriculture, Aid, and Economic Growth in Africa.

How can foreign aid to agriculture support economic growth in Africa? This paper constructs a geographically indexed applied general equilibrium model that considers pathways through which aid might affect growth and structural transformation of labor markets in the context of soil nutrient variation, minimum subsistence consumption requirements, domestic transport costs, labor mobility, and constraints to self-financing of agricultural inputs.Using plausible parameters, the model is presented for Uganda as an illustrative case.We present three stylized scenarios to demonstrate the potential economy-wide impacts of both soil nutrient loss and replenishment, and how foreign aid can be targeted to support agricultural inputs that boost rural productivity and shift labor to boost real wages. One simulation shows how a temporary program of targeted official development assistance (ODA) for agriculture could generate, contrary to traditional Dutch disease concerns, an expansion in the primary tradable sector and positive permanent productivity and welfare effects, leading to a steady decline in the need for complementary ODA for budget support.

The effect of an integrated multisector model for achieving the Millennium Development Goals and improving child survival in rural sub-Saharan Africa: a non-randomised controlled assessment.

BACKGROUND: Simultaneously addressing multiple Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) has the potential to complement essential health interventions to accelerate gains in child survival. The Millennium Villages project is an integrated multisector approach to rural development operating across diverse sub-Saharan African sites. Our aim was to assess the effects of the project on MDG-related outcomes including child mortality 3 years after implementation and compare these changes to local comparison data. METHODS: Village sites averaging 35,000 people were selected from rural areas across diverse agroecological zones with high baseline levels of poverty and undernutrition. Starting in 2006, simultaneous investments were made in agriculture, the environment, business development, education, infrastructure, and health in partnership with communities and local governments at an annual projected cost of US$120 per person. We assessed MDG-related progress by monitoring changes 3 years after implementation across Millenium Village sites in nine countries. The primary outcome was the mortality rate of children younger than 5 years of age. To assess plausibility and attribution, we compared changes to reference data gathered from matched randomly selected comparison sites for the mortality rate of children younger than 5 years of age. Analyses were done on a per-protocol basis. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01125618. FINDINGS: Baseline levels of MDG-related spending averaged $27 per head, increasing to $116 by year 3 of which $25 was spent on health. After 3 years, reductions in poverty, food insecurity, stunting, and malaria parasitaemia were reported across nine Millennium Village sites. Access to improved water and sanitation increased, along with coverage for many maternal-child health interventions. Mortality rates in children younger than 5 years of age decreased by 22% in Millennium Village sites relative to baseline (absolute decrease 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths, p=0·015) and 32% relative to matched comparison sites (30 deaths per 1000 livebirths, p=0·033). INTERPRETATION: An integrated multisector approach for addressing the MDGs can produce rapid declines in child mortality in the first 3 years of a long-term effort in rural sub-Saharan Africa. FUNDING: UN Human Security Trust Fund, the Lenfest Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Becton Dickinson.

Effective monitoring of agriculture: a response.

The development of effective agricultural monitoring networks is essential to track, anticipate and manage changes in the social, economic and environmental aspects of agriculture. We welcome the perspective of Lindenmayer and Likens (J. Environ. Monit., 2011, 13, 1559) as published in the Journal of Environmental Monitoring on our earlier paper, "Monitoring the World's Agriculture" (Sachs et al., Nature, 2010, 466, 558-560). In this response, we address their three main critiques labeled as 'the passive approach', 'the problem with uniform metrics' and 'the problem with composite metrics'. We expand on specific research questions at the core of the network design, on the distinction between key universal and site-specific metrics to detect change over time and across scales, and on the need for composite metrics in decision-making. We believe that simultaneously measuring indicators of the three pillars of sustainability (environmentally sound, social responsible and economically viable) in an effectively integrated monitoring system will ultimately allow scientists and land managers alike to find solutions to the most pressing problems facing global food security.

Expansion of cancer care and control in countries of low and middle income: a call to action.

Substantial inequalities exist in cancer survival rates across countries. In addition to prevention of new cancers by reduction of risk factors, strategies are needed to close the gap between developed and developing countries in cancer survival and the effects of the disease on human suffering. We challenge the public health community's assumption that cancers will remain untreated in poor countries, and note the analogy to similarly unfounded arguments from more than a decade ago against provision of HIV treatment. In resource-constrained countries without specialised services, experience has shown that much can be done to prevent and treat cancer by deployment of primary and secondary caregivers, use of off-patent drugs, and application of regional and global mechanisms for financing and procurement. Furthermore, several middle-income countries have included cancer treatment in national health insurance coverage with a focus on people living in poverty. These strategies can reduce costs, increase access to health services, and strengthen health systems to meet the challenge of cancer and other diseases. In 2009, we formed the Global Task Force on Expanded Access to Cancer Care and Control in Developing Countries, which is composed of leaders from the global health and cancer care communities, and is dedicated to proposal, implementation, and evaluation of strategies to advance this agenda.

Areas of global importance for conserving terrestrial biodiversity, carbon and water.

To meet the ambitious objectives of biodiversity and climate conventions, the international community requires clarity on how these objectives can be operationalized spatially and how multiple targets can be pursued concurrently. To support goal setting and the implementation of international strategies and action plans, spatial guidance is needed to identify which land areas have the potential to generate the greatest synergies between conserving biodiversity and nature's contributions to people. Here we present results from a joint optimization that minimizes the number of threatened species, maximizes carbon retention and water quality regulation, and ranks terrestrial conservation priorities globally. We found that selecting the top-ranked 30% and 50% of terrestrial land area would conserve respectively 60.7% and 85.3% of the estimated total carbon stock and 66% and 89.8% of all clean water, in addition to meeting conservation targets for 57.9% and 79% of all species considered. Our data and prioritization further suggest that adequately conserving all species considered (vertebrates and plants) would require giving conservation attention to ~70% of the terrestrial land surface. If priority was given to biodiversity only, managing 30% of optimally located land area for conservation may be sufficient to meet conservation targets for 81.3% of the terrestrial plant and vertebrate species considered. Our results provide a global assessment of where land could be optimally managed for conservation. We discuss how such a spatial prioritization framework can support the implementation of the biodiversity and climate conventions.

Poverty trap formed by the ecology of infectious diseases.

While most of the world has enjoyed exponential economic growth, more than one-sixth of the world is today roughly as poor as their ancestors were many generations ago. Widely accepted general explanations for the persistence of such poverty have been elusive and are needed by the international development community. Building on a well-established model of human infectious diseases, we show how formally integrating simple economic and disease ecology models can naturally give rise to poverty traps, where initial economic and epidemiological conditions determine the long-term trajectory of the health and economic development of a society. This poverty trap may therefore be broken by improving health conditions of the population. More generally, we demonstrate that simple human ecological models can help explain broad patterns of modern economic organization.

The SDGs and human well-being: a global analysis of synergies, trade-offs, and regional differences.

This paper explores the empirical links between achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and subjective well-being. Globally, we find that in terms of well-being, there are increasing marginal returns to sustainable development. Unpacking the SDGs by looking at how each SDG relates to well-being shows, in most cases, a strong positive correlation. However, SDG12 (responsible production and consumption) and SDG13 (climate action) are negatively correlated with well-being. This suggests that in the short run there may be certain trade-offs to sustainable development, and further heterogeneity is revealed through an analysis of how these relationships play out by region. Variance decomposition methods also suggest large differences in how each SDG contributes to explaining the variance in well-being between countries. These and other empirical insights highlight that more complex and contextualized policy efforts are needed in order to achieve sustainable development while optimising for well-being.

The urgent case for expanded development assistance for health.

The low-income developing countries require increased development assistance for health (DAH) to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3, 'Healthy Lives for All'. DAH has a proven track record. DAH expanded during 2001-2008, with significant health gains in the LIDCs, but then stopped expanding in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria requires around US$31.8 billion during 2021-2023 to maintain a trajectory to end the three epidemics by 2030, yet donors have so far signaled that they are prepared to offer less than half that sum, around US$14 billion.