The impact of interventions in the global land and agri-food sectors on Nature's Contributions to People and the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Interlocked challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss, and land degradation require transformative interventions in the land management and food production sectors to reduce carbon emissions, strengthen adaptive capacity, and increase food security. However, deciding which interventions to pursue and understanding their relative co-benefits with and trade-offs against different social and environmental goals have been difficult without comparisons across a range of possible actions. This study examined 40 different options, implemented through land management, value chains, or risk management, for their relative impacts across 18 Nature's Contributions to People (NCPs) and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We find that a relatively small number of interventions show positive synergies with both SDGs and NCPs with no significant adverse trade-offs; these include improved cropland management, improved grazing land management, improved livestock management, agroforestry, integrated water management, increased soil organic carbon content, reduced soil erosion, salinization, and compaction, fire management, reduced landslides and hazards, reduced pollution, reduced post-harvest losses, improved energy use in food systems, and disaster risk management. Several interventions show potentially significant negative impacts on both SDGs and NCPs; these include bioenergy and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, afforestation, and some risk sharing measures, like commercial crop insurance. Our results demonstrate that a better understanding of co-benefits and trade-offs of different policy approaches can help decision-makers choose the more effective, or at the very minimum, more benign interventions for implementation.

Which practices co-deliver food security, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and combat land degradation and desertification?

There is a clear need for transformative change in the land management and food production sectors to address the global land challenges of climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, combatting land degradation and desertification, and delivering food security (referred to hereafter as "land challenges"). We assess the potential for 40 practices to address these land challenges and find that: Nine options deliver medium to large benefits for all four land challenges. A further two options have no global estimates for adaptation, but have medium to large benefits for all other land challenges. Five options have large mitigation potential (>3 Gt CO2 eq/year) without adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Five options have moderate mitigation potential, with no adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Sixteen practices have large adaptation potential (>25 million people benefit), without adverse side effects on other land challenges. Most practices can be applied without competing for available land. However, seven options could result in competition for land. A large number of practices do not require dedicated land, including several land management options, all value chain options, and all risk management options. Four options could greatly increase competition for land if applied at a large scale, though the impact is scale and context specific, highlighting the need for safeguards to ensure that expansion of land for mitigation does not impact natural systems and food security. A number of practices, such as increased food productivity, dietary change and reduced food loss and waste, can reduce demand for land conversion, thereby potentially freeing-up land and creating opportunities for enhanced implementation of other practices, making them important components of portfolios of practices to address the combined land challenges.

Effects of seasonal and interannual variations in leaf photosynthesis and canopy leaf area index on gross primary production of a cool-temperate deciduous broadleaf forest in Takayama, Japan.

Revealing the seasonal and interannual variations in forest canopy photosynthesis is a critical issue in understanding the ecological mechanisms underlying the dynamics of carbon dioxide exchange between the atmosphere and deciduous forests. This study examined the effects of temporal variations of canopy leaf area index (LAI) and leaf photosynthetic capacity [the maximum velocity of carboxylation (V (cmax))] on gross primary production (GPP) of a cool-temperate deciduous broadleaf forest for 5 years in Takayama AsiaFlux site, central Japan. We made two estimations to examine the effects of canopy properties on GPP; one is to incorporate the in situ observation of V (cmax) and LAI throughout the growing season, and another considers seasonality of LAI but constantly high V (cmax). The simulations indicated that variation in V (cmax) and LAI, especially in the leaf expansion period, had remarkable effects on GPP, and if V (cmax) was assumed constant GPP will be overestimated by 15%. Monthly examination of air temperature, radiation, LAI and GPP suggested that spring temperature could affect canopy phenology, and also that GPP in summer was determined mainly by incoming radiation. However, the consequences among these factors responsible for interannual changes of GPP are not straightforward since leaf expansion and senescence patterns and summer meteorological conditions influence GPP independently. This simulation based on in situ ecophysiological research suggests the importance of intensive consideration and understanding of the phenology of leaf photosynthetic capacity and LAI to analyze and predict carbon fixation in forest ecosystems.

Global terrestrial carbon fluxes of 1999-2019 estimated by upscaling eddy covariance data with a random forest.

The terrestrial biosphere is a key player in slowing the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. While quantification of carbon fluxes at global land scale is important for mitigation policy related to climate and carbon, measurements are only available at sites scarcely distributed in the world. This leads to using various methods to upscale site measurements to the whole terrestrial biosphere. This article reports a product obtained by using a Random Forest to upscale terrestrial net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production, and ecosystem respiration from FLUXNET 2015. Our product covers land from -60°S to 80°N with a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° every 10 days during the period 1999-2019. It was compared with four existing products. A distinguishable feature of our method is using three derived variables of leaf area index to represent plant functional type (PFT) so that measurements from different PFTs can be mixed better by the model. This product can be valuable for the carbon-cycle community to validate terrestrial biosphere models and cross check datasets.

Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia.

An integrated understanding of the biogeochemical consequences of climate extremes and land use changes is needed to constrain land-surface feedbacks to atmospheric CO2 from associated climate change. Past assessments of the global carbon balance have shown particularly high uncertainty in Southeast Asia. Here, we use a combination of model ensembles to show that intensified land use change made Southeast Asia a strong source of CO2 from the 1980s to 1990s, whereas the region was close to carbon neutral in the 2000s due to an enhanced CO2 fertilization effect and absence of moderate-to-strong El Niño events. Our findings suggest that despite ongoing deforestation, CO2 emissions were substantially decreased during the 2000s, largely owing to milder climate that restores photosynthetic capacity and suppresses peat and deforestation fire emissions. The occurrence of strong El Niño events after 2009 suggests that the region has returned to conditions of increased vulnerability of carbon stocks.

Influence of spring and autumn phenological transitions on forest ecosystem productivity.

We use eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) from 21 FLUXNET sites (153 site-years of data) to investigate relationships between phenology and productivity (in terms of both NEP and gross ecosystem photosynthesis, GEP) in temperate and boreal forests. Results are used to evaluate the plausibility of four different conceptual models. Phenological indicators were derived from the eddy covariance time series, and from remote sensing and models. We examine spatial patterns (across sites) and temporal patterns (across years); an important conclusion is that it is likely that neither of these accurately represents how productivity will respond to future phenological shifts resulting from ongoing climate change. In spring and autumn, increased GEP resulting from an 'extra' day tends to be offset by concurrent, but smaller, increases in ecosystem respiration, and thus the effect on NEP is still positive. Spring productivity anomalies appear to have carry-over effects that translate to productivity anomalies in the following autumn, but it is not clear that these result directly from phenological anomalies. Finally, the productivity of evergreen needleleaf forests is less sensitive to phenology than is productivity of deciduous broadleaf forests. This has implications for how climate change may drive shifts in competition within mixed-species stands.