From Ebola to COVID-19: emergency preparedness and response plans and actions in Lagos, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Lagos state is the industrial nerve centre of Nigeria and was the epicentre of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Nigeria as it is now for the current Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) outbreak. This paper describes how the lessons learned from the Ebola outbreak in 2014 informed the emergency preparedness of the State ahead of the COVID-19 outbreak and guided response. DISCUSSION: Following the Ebola outbreak in 2014, the Lagos State government provided governance by developing a policy on emergency preparedness and biosecurity and provided oversight and coordination of emergency preparedness strategies. Capacities for emergency response were strengthened by training key staff, developing a robust surveillance system, and setting up a Biosafety Level 3 laboratory and biobank. Resource provision, in terms of finances and trained personnel for emergencies was prioritized by the government. With the onset of COVID-19, Lagos state was able to respond promptly to the outbreak using the centralized Incident Command Structure and the key activities of the Emergency Operations Centre. Contributory to effective response were partnerships with the private sectors, community engagement and political commitment. CONCLUSION: Using the lessons learned from the 2014 Ebola outbreak, Lagos State had gradually prepared its healthcare system for a pandemic such as COVID-19. The State needs to continue to expand its preparedness to be more resilient and future proof to respond to disease outbreaks. Looking beyond intra-state gains, lessons and identified best practices from the past and present should be shared with other states and countries.

Clinical characteristics, predictors of symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 and duration of hospitalisation in a cohort of 632 Patients in Lagos State, Nigeria.

OBJECTIVE: The clinical spectrum of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is still evolving. This study describes the clinical characteristics and investigates factors that predict symptomatic presentation and duration of hospitalisation in a cohort of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients managed in Lagos, Nigeria. METHODOLOGY: This was a retrospective assessment of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 disease in six dedicated facilities in Lagos, Nigeria, between April 1st and May 31st 2020. Participants were individuals with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. The outcome measures were presence of symptoms and duration of hospitalisation. Demographic and comorbidity data were also obtained. Statistical analysis was done using STATA 15.0 software, with P < 0.05 being considered statistically significant. RESULTS: A total of 632 cases were analysed. The median age was 40 years (IQR: 30.5-49); male patients accounted for 60.1%. About 63% of patients were asymptomatic at presentation. Among the symptomatic, the most common symptoms were cough (47.4%) and fever (39.7%). The most common comorbidities were hypertension (16.8%) and diabetes (5.2%). The median duration of hospitalisation was 10 days (IQR: 8-14). Comorbidities increased the odds of presenting with symptoms 1.6-fold (P = 0.025) for one comorbidity and 3.2-fold (P = 0.005) for ≥2 comorbidities. Individuals aged ≥50 years were twice as likely to be hospitalised for more than 14 days compared to individuals aged <50 years (P = 0.016). CONCLUSION: Most individuals had no symptoms with comorbidities increasing the likelihood of symptoms. Older age was associated with longer duration of hospitalisation. Age and comorbidities should be used for COVID-19 triaging for efficient resource allocation.

Full autopsy in a confirmed COVID-19 patient in Lagos, Nigeria - A case report.

OBJECTIVES: To report the postmortem findings of a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) positive individual who died in Lagos (Nigeria) in June 2020 and to investigate the cause, pathogenesis as well as pathological changes noticed during the examination. METHODS: Complete postmortem examination was performed according to standard procedures in a regular autopsy suite using personal protective equipment including N95 masks, goggles and disposable gowns. The diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was confirmed by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing on postmortem nasopharyngeal swabs. RESULTS: A 47-year-old man with a medical history of well controlled hypertension and dyslipidaemia died after long hours of transportation for medical care in a hospital in Lagos. He tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on ante- and postmortem nasopharyngeal swabs. Autopsy revealed pneumonia with diffuse alveolar damage, disseminated intravascular coagulopathy and hypovolaemic shock. CONCLUSIONS: Autopsy can be performed on decedents who died from or with SARS-CoV-2 infection in a low resource environment such as ours. A standard autopsy room was used while deploying recommended infection prevention control and regular decontamination. The clinical details, autopsy findings such as diffuse alveolar damage and airway inflammation were consistent with a COVID-19 related pathology. While the decedent had 'controlled' co-morbidity, he succumbed to multi-organ failure occasioned by shock and disseminated intravascular coagulopathy.

Comparative performance of SARS-CoV-2 real-time PCR diagnostic assays on samples from Lagos, Nigeria.

A key element in containing the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 infection is quality diagnostics which is affected by several factors. We now report the comparative performance of five real-time diagnostic assays. Nasopharyngeal swab samples were obtained from persons seeking a diagnosis for SARS-CoV-2 infection in Lagos, Nigeria. The comparison was performed on the same negative, low, and high-positive sample set, with viral RNA extracted using the Qiagen Viral RNA Kit. All five assays are one-step reverse transcriptase real-time PCR assays. Testing was done according to each assay's manufacturer instructions for use using real-time PCR platforms. 63 samples were tested using the five qPCR assays, comprising of 15 negative samples, 15 positive samples (Ct = 16-30; one Ct = 35), and 33 samples with Tib MolBiol E-gene Ct value ranging from 36-41. All assays detected all high positive samples correctly. Three assays correctly identified all negative samples while two assays each failed to correctly identify one different negative sample. The consistent detection of positive samples at different Ct/Cq values gives an indication of when to repeat testing and/or establish more stringent in-house cut-off value. The varied performance of different diagnostic assays, mostly with emergency use approvals, for a novel virus is expected. Comparative assays' performance reported may guide laboratories to determine both their repeat testing Ct/Cq range and/or cut-off value.

Outcomes of COVID-19 patients with comorbidities in southwest Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Data on the comorbidities that result in negative outcomes for people with COVID-19 are currently scarce for African populations. This study identifies comorbidities that predict death among a large sample of COVID-19 patients from Nigeria. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of medical records for 2184 laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Lagos, southwest Nigeria. Extracted data included age, sex, severity of condition at presentation and self-reported comorbidities. The outcomes of interest were death or discharge from facility. RESULTS: Most of the cases were male (65.8%) and the median age was 43 years (IQR: 33-55). Four hundred and ninety-two patients (22.5%) had at least one comorbidity and the most common amongst them were hypertension (74.2%) and diabetes (30.3%). The mortality rate was 3.3% and a significantly higher proportion of patients with comorbidities died compared to those with none. The comorbidities that predicted death were hypertension (OR: 2.21, 95%CI: 1.22-4.01), diabetes (OR: 3.69, 95% CI: 1.99-6.85), renal disease (OR: 12.53, 95%CI: 1.97-79.56), cancer (OR: 14.12, 95% CI: 2.03-98.19) and HIV (OR: 1.77-84.15]. CONCLUSION: Comorbidities are prevalent and the associated risk of death is high among COVID-19 patients in Lagos, Nigeria. Public enlightenment, early identification and targeted care for COVID-19 cases with comorbidities are recommended as the pandemic evolves.

Presenting Symptoms and Predictors of Poor Outcomes Among 2,184 Patients with COVID-19 in Lagos State, Nigeria.

INTRODUCTION: Lagos state remains the epicentre of COVID-19 in Nigeria. We describe the symptoms and signs of the first 2,184 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted at COVID-19 treatment centers in Lagos State. We also assessed the relationship between patients' presenting symptoms, sociodemographic and clinical characteristics and COVID-19 deaths.. METHODS: Medical records of PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients were extracted and analyzed for their symptoms, symptom severity, presence of comorbidities and outcome. RESULTS: The ages of the patients ranged from 4 days to 98 years with a mean of 43.0(16.0) years. Of the patients who presented with symptoms, cough (19.3%) was the most common presenting symptom. This was followed by fever (13.7%) and difficulty in breathing, (10.9%). The most significant clinical predictor of death was the severity of symptoms and signs at presentation. Difficulty in breathing was the most significant symptom predictor of COVID-19 death (OR:19.26 95% CI 10.95-33.88). The case fatality rate was 4.3%. CONCLUSION: Primary care physicians and COVID-19 frontline workers should maintain a high index of suspicion and prioritize the care of patients presenting with these symptoms. Community members should be educated on such predictors and ensure that patients with these symptoms seek care early to reduce the risk of deaths associated with COVID-19.

Assessing the capacity of symptom scores to predict COVID-19 positivity in Nigeria: a national derivation and validation cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop and validate a symptom prediction tool for COVID-19 test positivity in Nigeria. DESIGN: Predictive modelling study. SETTING: All Nigeria States and the Federal Capital Territory. PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of 43 221 individuals within the national COVID-19 surveillance dataset from 27 February to 27 August 2020. Complete dataset was randomly split into two equal halves: derivation and validation datasets. Using the derivation dataset (n=21 477), backward multivariable logistic regression approach was used to identify symptoms positively associated with COVID-19 positivity (by real-time PCR) in children (≤17 years), adults (18-64 years) and elderly (≥65 years) patients separately. OUTCOME MEASURES: Weighted statistical and clinical scores based on beta regression coefficients and clinicians' judgements, respectively. Using the validation dataset (n=21 744), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values were used to assess the predictive capacity of individual symptoms, unweighted score and the two weighted scores. RESULTS: Overall, 27.6% of children (4415/15 988), 34.6% of adults (9154/26 441) and 40.0% of elderly (317/792) that had been tested were positive for COVID-19. Best individual symptom predictor of COVID-19 positivity was loss of smell in children (AUROC 0.56, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.56), either fever or cough in adults (AUROC 0.57, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.58) and difficulty in breathing in the elderly (AUROC 0.53, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.58) patients. In children, adults and the elderly patients, all scoring approaches showed similar predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive capacity of various symptom scores for COVID-19 positivity was poor overall. However, the findings could serve as an advocacy tool for more investments in resources for capacity strengthening of molecular testing for COVID-19 in Nigeria.

Morbidity and mortality outcomes of COVID-19 patients with and without hypertension in Lagos, Nigeria: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The current pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has shown epidemiological and clinical characteristics that appear worsened in hypertensive patients. The morbidity and mortality of the disease among hypertensive patients in Africa have yet to be well described. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study all confirmed COVID-19 adult patients (≥18 years of age) in Lagos between February 27 to July 62,020 were included. Demographic, clinical and outcome data were extracted from electronic medical records of patients admitted at the COVID-19 isolation centers in Lagos. Outcomes included dying, being discharged after recovery or being evacuated/transferred. Descriptive statistics considered proportions, means and medians. The Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were used in determining associations between variables. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression were performed to quantify the risk of worse outcomes among hypertensives with COVID-19 and adjust for confounders. P-value ≤0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: A total of 2075 adults with COVID-19 were included in this study. The prevalence of hypertension, the most common comorbidity, was 17.8% followed by diabetes (7.2%) and asthma (2.0%). Overall mortality was 4.2% while mortality among the hypertensives was 13.7%. Severe symptoms and mortality were significantly higher among the hypertensives and survival rates were significantly lowered by the presence of additional comorbidity to 50% from 91% for those with hypertension alone and from 98% for all other patients (P < 0.001). After adjustment for confounders (age and sex), severe COVID-19and death were higher for hypertensives {severe/critical illness: HR = 2.41, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 1.4-4.0, death: HR = 2.30, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 1.2-4.6, for those with hypertension only} {severe/critical illness: HR = 3.76, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 2.1-6.4, death: crude HR = 6.63, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 3.4-1.6, for those with additional comorbidities}. Hypertension posed an increased risk of severe morbidity (approx. 4-fold) and death (approx. 7-fold) from COVID-19 in the presence of multiple comorbidities. CONCLUSION: The potential morbidity and mortality risks of hypertension especially with other comorbidities in COVID-19 could help direct efforts towards prevention and prognostication. This provides the rationale for improving preventive caution for people with hypertension and other comorbidities and prioritizing them for future antiviral interventions.