Publisher Correction: GDF15 mediates the effects of metformin on body weight and energy balance.

An Amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

GDF15 mediates the effects of metformin on body weight and energy balance.

Metformin, the world's most prescribed anti-diabetic drug, is also effective in preventing type 2 diabetes in people at high risk1,2. More than 60% of this effect is attributable to the ability of metformin to lower body weight in a sustained manner3. The molecular mechanisms by which metformin lowers body weight are unknown. Here we show-in two independent randomized controlled clinical trials-that metformin increases circulating levels of the peptide hormone growth/differentiation factor 15 (GDF15), which has been shown to reduce food intake and lower body weight through a brain-stem-restricted receptor. In wild-type mice, oral metformin increased circulating GDF15, with GDF15 expression increasing predominantly in the distal intestine and the kidney. Metformin prevented weight gain in response to a high-fat diet in wild-type mice but not in mice lacking GDF15 or its receptor GDNF family receptor α-like (GFRAL). In obese mice on a high-fat diet, the effects of metformin to reduce body weight were reversed by a GFRAL-antagonist antibody. Metformin had effects on both energy intake and energy expenditure that were dependent on GDF15, but retained its ability to lower circulating glucose levels in the absence of GDF15 activity. In summary, metformin elevates circulating levels of GDF15, which is necessary to obtain its beneficial effects on energy balance and body weight, major contributors to its action as a chemopreventive agent.

The metabolomic signature of weight loss and remission in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT).

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: High-throughput metabolomics technologies in a variety of study designs have demonstrated a consistent metabolomic signature of overweight and type 2 diabetes. However, the extent to which these metabolomic patterns can be reversed with weight loss and diabetes remission has been weakly investigated. We aimed to characterise the metabolomic consequences of a weight-loss intervention in individuals with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We analysed 574 fasted serum samples collected within an existing RCT (the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial [DiRECT]) (N=298). In the trial, participating primary care practices were randomly assigned (1:1) to provide either a weight management programme (intervention) or best-practice care by guidelines (control) treatment to individuals with type 2 diabetes. Here, metabolomics analysis was performed on samples collected at baseline and 12 months using both untargeted MS and targeted 1H-NMR spectroscopy. Multivariable regression models were fitted to evaluate the effect of the intervention on metabolite levels. RESULTS: Decreases in branched-chain amino acids, sugars and LDL triglycerides, and increases in sphingolipids, plasmalogens and metabolites related to fatty acid metabolism were associated with the intervention (Holm-corrected p<0.05). In individuals who lost more than 9 kg between baseline and 12 months, those who achieved diabetes remission saw greater reductions in glucose, fructose and mannose, compared with those who did not achieve remission. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: We have characterised the metabolomic effects of an integrated weight management programme previously shown to deliver weight loss and diabetes remission. A large proportion of the metabolome appears to be modifiable. Patterns of change were largely and strikingly opposite to perturbances previously documented with the development of type 2 diabetes. DATA AVAILABILITY: The data used for analysis are available on a research data repository ( https://researchdata.gla.ac.uk/ ) with access given to researchers subject to appropriate data sharing agreements. Metabolite data preparation, data pre-processing, statistical analyses and figure generation were performed in R Studio v.1.0.143 using R v.4.0.2. The R code for this study has been made publicly available on GitHub at: https://github.com/lauracorbin/metabolomics_of_direct .

Phenotype-based targeted treatment of SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists in type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: A precision medicine approach in type 2 diabetes could enhance targeting specific glucose-lowering therapies to individual patients most likely to benefit. We aimed to use the recently developed Bayesian causal forest (BCF) method to develop and validate an individualised treatment selection algorithm for two major type 2 diabetes drug classes, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RA). METHODS: We designed a predictive algorithm using BCF to estimate individual-level conditional average treatment effects for 12-month glycaemic outcome (HbA1c) between SGLT2i and GLP1-RA, based on routine clinical features of 46,394 people with type 2 diabetes in primary care in England (Clinical Practice Research Datalink; 27,319 for model development, 19,075 for hold-out validation), with additional external validation in 2252 people with type 2 diabetes from Scotland (SCI-Diabetes [Tayside & Fife]). Differences in glycaemic outcome with GLP1-RA by sex seen in clinical data were replicated in clinical trial data (HARMONY programme: liraglutide [n=389] and albiglutide [n=1682]). As secondary outcomes, we evaluated the impacts of targeting therapy based on glycaemic response on weight change, tolerability and longer-term risk of new-onset microvascular complications, macrovascular complications and adverse kidney events. RESULTS: Model development identified marked heterogeneity in glycaemic response, with 4787 (17.5%) of the development cohort having a predicted HbA1c benefit >3 mmol/mol (>0.3%) with SGLT2i over GLP1-RA and 5551 (20.3%) having a predicted HbA1c benefit >3 mmol/mol with GLP1-RA over SGLT2i. Calibration was good in hold-back validation, and external validation in an independent Scottish dataset identified clear differences in glycaemic outcomes between those predicted to benefit from each therapy. Sex, with women markedly more responsive to GLP1-RA, was identified as a major treatment effect modifier in both the UK observational datasets and in clinical trial data: HARMONY-7 liraglutide (GLP1-RA): 4.4 mmol/mol (95% credible interval [95% CrI] 2.2, 6.3) (0.4% [95% CrI 0.2, 0.6]) greater response in women than men. Targeting the two therapies based on predicted glycaemic response was also associated with improvements in short-term tolerability and long-term risk of new-onset microvascular complications. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Precision medicine approaches can facilitate effective individualised treatment choice between SGLT2i and GLP1-RA therapies, and the use of routinely collected clinical features for treatment selection could support low-cost deployment in many countries.

Exploring the Relationship Between Efpeglenatide Dose and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes: Insights From the AMPLITUDE-O Trial.

BACKGROUND: In the AMPLITUDE-O (Effect of Efpeglenatide on Cardiovascular Outcomes) cardiovascular outcomes trial, adding either 4 mg or 6 mg weekly of the glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist efpeglenatide to usual care reduced major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in people with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk. Whether these benefits are dose related remains uncertain. METHODS: Participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1 ratio to placebo, 4 mg or 6 mg of efpeglenatide. The effect of 6 mg versus placebo and of 4 mg versus placebo on MACE (a nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular or unknown causes) and on all the secondary composite cardiovascular and kidney outcomes was assessed. A dose-response relationship was assessed using the log-rank test and χ2 statistic for trend. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 1.8 years, MACE occurred in 125 (9.2%) participants assigned to placebo, 84 (6.2%) participants assigned to 6 mg of efpeglenatide (hazard ratio [HR], 0.65 [95% CI, 0.5-0.86]; P=0.0027), and 105 (7.7%) assigned to 4 mg of efpeglenatide (HR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.63-1.06]; P=0.14). Participants receiving high-dose efpeglenatide also experienced fewer secondary outcomes, including the composite of MACE, coronary revascularization, or hospitalization for unstable angina (HR, 0.73 for 6 mg, P=0.011; HR, 0.85 for 4 mg, P=0.17), a kidney composite outcome comprising sustained new macroalbuminuria, a ≥40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate or renal failure (HR, 0.63 for 6 mg, P<0.0001; HR, 0.73 for 4 mg, P=0.0009), MACE or any death (HR, 0.67 for 6 mg, P=0.0021; HR, 0.81 for 4 mg, P=0.08), a kidney function outcome comprising a sustained ≥40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate, renal failure, or death (HR, 0.61 for 6 mg, P=0.0072; HR, 0.97 for 4 mg, P=0.83), and the composite of MACE, any death, heart failure hospitalization, or the kidney function outcome (HR, 0.63 for 6 mg, P=0.0002; HR, 0.81 for 4 mg, P=0.067). A clear dose-response was noted for all primary and secondary outcomes (all P for trend ≤0.018). CONCLUSIONS: The graded salutary relationship between efpeglenatide dose and cardiovascular outcomes suggests that titrating efpeglenatide and potentially other glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists to high doses may maximize their cardiovascular and renal benefits. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT03496298.

Cardiorenal Biomarkers, Canagliflozin, and Outcomes in Diabetic Kidney Disease: The CREDENCE Trial.

BACKGROUND: People with type 2 diabetes and albuminuria are at an elevated risk for cardiac and renal events. The optimal biomarkers to aid disease prediction and to understand the benefits of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibition remain unclear. METHODS: Among 2627 study participants in the CREDENCE trial (Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes With Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation), concentrations of NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, growth differentiation factor-15, and IGFBP7 (insulin-like growth factor binding protein 7) were measured. The effect of canagliflozin on biomarker concentrations was evaluated. The prognostic potential of each biomarker on the primary outcome (a composite of end-stage kidney disease [dialysis, transplantation, or a sustained estimated glomerular filtration rate of <15 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2], doubling of the serum creatinine level, or renal death or cardiovascular death) was assessed. RESULTS: The median (quartiles 1 and 3) concentration of each biomarker was generally elevated: NT-proBNP, 180 ng/L (82, 442 ng/L); high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, 19 ng/L (12, 29 ng/L); growth differentiation factor-15, 2595 ng/L (1852, 3775 ng/L); and IGFBP7, 121.8 ng/mL (105.4, 141.5 ng/mL). At 1 year, the biomarkers all rose by 6% to 29% in the placebo arm but only by 3% to 10% in the canagliflozin arm (all P<0.01 in multivariable linear mixed-effect models). Baseline concentrations of each biomarker were strongly predictive of cardiac and renal outcomes. When the biomarkers were analyzed together in a multimarker panel, individuals with high risk scores (hazard ratio [HR], 4.01 [95% CI, 2.52-6.35]) and moderate risk scores (HR, 2.39 [95% CI, 1.48-3.87]) showed a higher risk for the primary outcome compared with those with low risk scores. By 1 year, a 50% increase in NT-proBNP (HR, 1.11 [95% CI, 1.08-1.15]), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (HR, 1.86 [95% CI, 1.64-2.10]), growth differentiation factor-15 (HR, 1.45 [95% CI, 1.24-1.70]), and IGFBP7 (HR, 3.76 [95% CI, 2.54-5.56]) was associated with risk of the primary outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple cardiorenal stress biomarkers are strongly prognostic in people with type 2 diabetes and albuminuria. Canagliflozin modestly reduced the longitudinal trajectory of rise in each biomarker. Change in the biomarker level in addition to the baseline level augments the primary outcome prediction. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT02065791.

Twenty Years of Cardiovascular Complications and Risk Factors in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: A Nationwide Swedish Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The goal of this work was to investigate trends (2001-2019) for cardiovascular events and cardiometabolic risk factor levels in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and matched control subjects. METHODS: This study included 679 072 individuals with T2D from the Swedish National Diabetes Register and 2 643 800 matched control subjects. Incident outcomes comprised coronary artery disease, acute myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular disease, and heart failure (HF). Trends in time to first event for each outcome were analyzed with Cox regression and standardized incidence rates. In the group with T2D, Cox regression was also used to assess risk factor levels beyond target and outcomes, as well as the relative importance of each risk factor to each model. RESULTS: Among individuals with T2D, incidence rates per 10 000 person-years in 2001 and 2019 were as follows: acute myocardial infarction, 73.9 (95% CI, 65.4-86.8) and 41.0 (95% CI, 39.5-42.6); coronary artery disease, 205.1 (95% CI, 186.8-227.5) and 80.2 (95% CI, 78.2-82.3); cerebrovascular disease, 83.9 (95% CI, 73.6-98.5) and 46.2 (95% CI, 44.9-47.6); and HF, 98.3 (95% CI, 89.4-112.0) and 75.9 (95% CI, 74.4-77.5). The incidence for HF plateaued around 2013, a trend that then persisted. In individuals with T2D, glycated hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and lipids were independently associated with outcomes. Body mass index alone potentially explained >30% of HF risk in T2D. For those with T2D with no risk factor beyond target, there was no excess cardiovascular risk compared with control subjects except for HF, with increased hazard with T2D even when no risk factor was above target (hazard ratio, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.35-1.67]). Risk for coronary artery disease and cerebrovascular disease increased in a stepwise fashion for each risk factor not within target. Glycated hemoglobin was most prognostically important for incident atherosclerotic events, as was body mass index for incident of HF. CONCLUSIONS: Risk and rates for atherosclerotic complications and HF are generally decreasing among individuals with T2D, although HF incidence has notably plateaued in recent years. Modifiable risk factors within target levels were associated with lower risks for outcomes. This was particularly notable for systolic blood pressure and glycated hemoglobin for atherosclerotic outcomes and body mass index for heart failure.

Endothelin-1, Outcomes in Patients With Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction, and Effects of Dapagliflozin: Findings From DAPA-HF.

BACKGROUND: ET-1 (endothelin-1) is implicated in the pathophysiology of heart failure and renal disease. Its prognostic importance and relationship with kidney function in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction receiving contemporary treatment are uncertain. We investigated these and the efficacy of dapagliflozin according to ET-1 level in the DAPA-HF trial (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure). METHODS: We investigated the incidence of the primary outcome (cardiovascular death or worsening heart failure), change in kidney function, and the effect of dapagliflozin according to baseline ET-1 concentration, adjusting in Cox models for other recognized prognostic variables in heart failure including NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide). We also examined the effect of dapagliflozin on ET-1 level. RESULTS: Overall, 3048 participants had baseline ET-1 measurements: tertile 1 (T1; ≤3.28 pg/mL; n=1016); T2 (>3.28-4.41 pg/mL; n=1022); and T3 (>4.41 pg/mL; n=1010). Patients with higher ET-1 were more likely male, more likely obese, and had lower left ventricular ejection fraction, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, worse functional status, and higher NT-proBNP and hs-TnT (high-sensitivity troponin-T). In the adjusted Cox models, higher baseline ET-1 was independently associated with worse outcomes and steeper decline in kidney function (adjusted hazard ratio for primary outcome of 1.95 [95% CI, 1.53-2.50] for T3 and 1.36 [95% CI, 1.06-1.75] for T2; both versus T1; estimated glomerular filtration rate slope: T3, -3.19 [95% CI, -3.66 to -2.72] mL/min per 1.73 m2 per y, T2, -2.08 [95% CI, -2.52 to -1.63] and T1 -2.35 [95% CI, -2.79 to -1.91]; P=0.002). The benefit of dapagliflozin was consistent regardless of baseline ET-1, and the placebo-corrected decrease in ET-1 with dapagliflozin was 0.13 pg/mL (95% CI, 0.25-0.01; P=0.029). CONCLUSIONS: Higher baseline ET-1 concentration was independently associated with worse clinical outcomes and more rapid decline in kidney function. The benefit of dapagliflozin was consistent across the range of ET-1 concentrations measured, and treatment with dapagliflozin led to a small decrease in serum ET-1 concentration. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT03036124.

Methods applied to neonatal dried blood spot samples for secondary research purposes: a scoping review.

This scoping review aimed to synthesize the analytical techniques used and methodological limitations encountered when undertaking secondary research using residual neonatal dried blood spot (DBS) samples. Studies that used residual neonatal DBS samples for secondary research (i.e. research not related to newborn screening for inherited genetic and metabolic disorders) were identified from six electronic databases: Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Embase, Medline, PubMed and Scopus. Inclusion was restricted to studies published from 1973 and written in or translated into English that reported the storage, extraction and testing of neonatal DBS samples. Sixty-seven studies were eligible for inclusion. Included studies were predominantly methodological in nature and measured various analytes, including nucleic acids, proteins, metabolites, environmental pollutants, markers of prenatal substance use and medications. Neonatal DBS samples were stored over a range of temperatures (ambient temperature, cold storage or frozen) and durations (two weeks to 40.5 years), both of which impacted the recovery of some analytes, particularly amino acids, antibodies and environmental pollutants. The size of DBS sample used and potential contamination were also cited as methodological limitations. Residual neonatal DBS samples retained by newborn screening programs are a promising resource for secondary research purposes, with many studies reporting the successful measurement of analytes even from neonatal DBS samples stored for long periods of time in suboptimal temperatures and conditions.

Tirzepatide once weekly for the treatment of obesity in people with type 2 diabetes (SURMOUNT-2): a double-blind, randomised, multicentre, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Weight reduction is essential for improving health outcomes in people with obesity and type 2 diabetes. We assessed the efficacy and safety of tirzepatide, a glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist, versus placebo, for weight management in people living with obesity and type 2 diabetes. METHODS: This phase 3, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial was conducted in seven countries. Adults (aged ≥18 years) with a body-mass index (BMI) of 27 kg/m2 or higher and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) of 7-10% (53-86 mmol/mol) were randomly assigned (1:1:1), using a computer-generated random sequence via a validated interactive web-response system, to receive either once-weekly, subcutaneous tirzepatide (10 mg or 15 mg) or placebo for 72 weeks. All participants, investigators, and the sponsor were masked to treatment assignment. Coprimary endpoints were the percent change in bodyweight from baseline and bodyweight reduction of 5% or higher. The treatment-regimen estimand assessed effects regardless of treatment discontinuation or initiation of antihyperglycaemic rescue therapy. Efficacy and safety endpoints were analysed with data from all randomly assigned participants (intention-to-treat population). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04657003. FINDINGS: Between March 29, 2021, and April 10, 2023, of 1514 adults assessed for eligibility, 938 (mean age 54·2 years [SD 10·6], 476 [51%] were female, 710 [76%] were White, and 561 [60%] were Hispanic or Latino) were randomly assigned and received at least one dose of tirzepatide 10 mg (n=312), tirzepatide 15 mg (n=311), or placebo (n=315). Baseline mean bodyweight was 100·7 kg (SD 21·1), BMI 36·1 kg/m2 (SD 6·6), and HbA1c 8·02% (SD 0·89; 64·1 mmol/mol [SD 9·7]). Least-squares mean change in bodyweight at week 72 with tirzepatide 10 mg and 15 mg was -12·8% (SE 0·6) and -14·7% (0·5), respectively, and -3·2% (0·5) with placebo, resulting in estimated treatment differences versus placebo of -9·6% percentage points (95% CI -11·1 to -8·1) with tirzepatide 10 mg and -11·6% percentage points (-13·0 to -10·1) with tirzepatide 15 mg (all p<0·0001). More participants treated with tirzepatide versus placebo met bodyweight reduction thresholds of 5% or higher (79-83% vs 32%). The most frequent adverse events with tirzepatide were gastrointestinal-related, including nausea, diarrhoea, and vomiting and were mostly mild to moderate in severity, with few events leading to treatment discontinuation (<5%). Serious adverse events were reported by 68 (7%) participants overall and two deaths occurred in the tirzepatide 10 mg group, but deaths were not considered to be related to the study treatment by the investigator. INTERPRETATION: In this 72-week trial in adults living with obesity and type 2 diabetes, once-weekly tirzepatide 10 mg and 15 mg provided substantial and clinically meaningful reduction in bodyweight, with a safety profile that was similar to other incretin-based therapies for weight management. FUNDING: Eli Lilly and Company.

Incidence, prevalence, and co-occurrence of autoimmune disorders over time and by age, sex, and socioeconomic status: a population-based cohort study of 22 million individuals in the UK.

BACKGROUND: A rise in the incidence of some autoimmune disorders has been described. However, contemporary estimates of the overall incidence of autoimmune diseases and trends over time are scarce and inconsistent. We aimed to investigate the incidence and prevalence of 19 of the most common autoimmune diseases in the UK, assess trends over time, and by sex, age, socioeconomic status, season, and region, and we examine rates of co-occurrence among autoimmune diseases. METHODS: In this UK population-based study, we used linked primary and secondary electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), a cohort that is representative of the UK population in terms of age and sex and ethnicity. Eligible participants were men and women (no age restriction) with acceptable records, approved for Hospital Episodes Statistics and Office of National Statistics linkage, and registered with their general practice for at least 12 months during the study period. We calculated age and sex standardised incidence and prevalence of 19 autoimmune disorders from 2000 to 2019 and used negative binomial regression models to investigate temporal trends and variation by age, sex, socioeconomic status, season of onset, and geographical region in England. To characterise co-occurrence of autoimmune diseases, we calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs), comparing incidence rates of comorbid autoimmune disease among individuals with a first (index) autoimmune disease with incidence rates in the general population, using negative binomial regression models, adjusted for age and sex. FINDINGS: Among the 22 009 375 individuals included in the study, 978 872 had a new diagnosis of at least one autoimmune disease between Jan 1, 2000, and June 30, 2019 (mean age 54·0 years [SD 21·4]). 625 879 (63·9%) of these diagnosed individuals were female and 352 993 (36·1%) were male. Over the study period, age and sex standardised incidence rates of any autoimmune diseases increased (IRR 2017-19 vs 2000-02 1·04 [95% CI 1·00-1·09]). The largest increases were seen in coeliac disease (2·19 [2·05-2·35]), Sjogren's syndrome (2·09 [1·84-2·37]), and Graves' disease (2·07 [1·92-2·22]); pernicious anaemia (0·79 [0·72-0·86]) and Hashimoto's thyroiditis (0·81 [0·75-0·86]) significantly decreased in incidence. Together, the 19 autoimmune disorders examined affected 10·2% of the population over the study period (1 912 200 [13·1%] women and 668 264 [7·4%] men). A socioeconomic gradient was evident across several diseases, including pernicious anaemia (most vs least deprived area IRR 1·72 [1·64-1·81]), rheumatoid arthritis (1·52 [1·45-1·59]), Graves' disease (1·36 [1·30-1·43]), and systemic lupus erythematosus (1·35 [1·25-1·46]). Seasonal variations were observed for childhood-onset type 1 diabetes (more commonly diagnosed in winter) and vitiligo (more commonly diagnosed in summer), and regional variations were observed for a range of conditions. Autoimmune disorders were commonly associated with each other, particularly Sjögren's syndrome, systemic lupus erythematosus, and systemic sclerosis. Individuals with childhood-onset type 1 diabetes also had significantly higher rates of Addison's disease (IRR 26·5 [95% CI 17·3-40·7]), coeliac disease (28·4 [25·2-32·0]), and thyroid disease (Hashimoto's thyroiditis 13·3 [11·8-14·9] and Graves' disease 6·7 [5·1-8·5]), and multiple sclerosis had a particularly low rate of co-occurrence with other autoimmune diseases. INTERPRETATION: Autoimmune diseases affect approximately one in ten individuals, and their burden continues to increase over time at varying rates across individual diseases. The socioeconomic, seasonal, and regional disparities observed among several autoimmune disorders in our study suggest environmental factors in disease pathogenesis. The inter-relations between autoimmune diseases are commensurate with shared pathogenetic mechanisms or predisposing factors, particularly among connective tissue diseases and among endocrine diseases. FUNDING: Research Foundation Flanders.

Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes with Efpeglenatide in Type 2 Diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Four glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists that are structurally similar to human GLP-1 have been shown to reduce the risk of adverse cardiovascular events among persons with type 2 diabetes. The effect of an exendin-based GLP-1 receptor agonist, efpeglenatide, on cardiovascular and renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes who are also at high risk for adverse cardiovascular events is uncertain. METHODS: In this randomized, placebo-controlled trial conducted at 344 sites across 28 countries, we evaluated efpeglenatide in participants with type 2 diabetes and either a history of cardiovascular disease or current kidney disease (defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 25.0 to 59.9 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area) plus at least one other cardiovascular risk factor. Participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive weekly subcutaneous injections of efpeglenatide at a dose of 4 or 6 mg or placebo. Randomization was stratified according to use of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors. The primary outcome was the first major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE; a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular or undetermined causes). RESULTS: A total of 4076 participants were enrolled; 2717 were assigned to receive efpeglenatide and 1359 to receive placebo. During a median follow-up of 1.81 years, an incident MACE occurred in 189 participants (7.0%) assigned to receive efpeglenatide (3.9 events per 100 person-years) and 125 participants (9.2%) assigned to receive placebo (5.3 events per 100 person-years) (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.58 to 0.92; P<0.001 for noninferiority; P = 0.007 for superiority). A composite renal outcome event (a decrease in kidney function or macroalbuminuria) occurred in 353 participants (13.0%) assigned to receive efpeglenatide and in 250 participants (18.4%) assigned to receive placebo (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.57 to 0.79; P<0.001). Diarrhea, constipation, nausea, vomiting, or bloating occurred more frequently with efpeglenatide than with placebo. CONCLUSIONS: In this trial involving participants with type 2 diabetes who had either a history of cardiovascular disease or current kidney disease plus at least one other cardiovascular risk factor, the risk of cardiovascular events was lower among those who received weekly subcutaneous injections of efpeglenatide at a dose of 4 or 6 mg than among those who received placebo. (Funded by Sanofi; AMPLITUDE-O ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03496298.).

Empagliflozin in Heart Failure with a Preserved Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors reduce the risk of hospitalization for heart failure in patients with heart failure and a reduced ejection fraction, but their effects in patients with heart failure and a preserved ejection fraction are uncertain. METHODS: In this double-blind trial, we randomly assigned 5988 patients with class II-IV heart failure and an ejection fraction of more than 40% to receive empagliflozin (10 mg once daily) or placebo, in addition to usual therapy. The primary outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure. RESULTS: Over a median of 26.2 months, a primary outcome event occurred in 415 of 2997 patients (13.8%) in the empagliflozin group and in 511 of 2991 patients (17.1%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69 to 0.90; P<0.001). This effect was mainly related to a lower risk of hospitalization for heart failure in the empagliflozin group. The effects of empagliflozin appeared consistent in patients with or without diabetes. The total number of hospitalizations for heart failure was lower in the empagliflozin group than in the placebo group (407 with empagliflozin and 541 with placebo; hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.61 to 0.88; P<0.001). Uncomplicated genital and urinary tract infections and hypotension were reported more frequently with empagliflozin. CONCLUSIONS: Empagliflozin reduced the combined risk of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure in patients with heart failure and a preserved ejection fraction, regardless of the presence or absence of diabetes. (Funded by Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly; EMPEROR-Preserved ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03057951).

Vascular endothelial growth factors and risk of cardio-renal events: Results from the CREDENCE trial.

BACKGROUND: Circulating concentrations of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) family members may be abnormally elevated in type 2 diabetes (T2D). The roles of placental growth factor (PlGF), soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFLT-1), and VEGF-A in cardio-renal complications of T2D are not established. METHOD: The 2602 individuals with diabetic kidney disease (DKD) from the Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes with Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation trial were randomized to receive canagliflozin or placebo and followed for incident cardio-renal outcomes. PlGF, sFLT-1, and VEGF-A were measured at baseline, year 1, and year 3. Primary outcome was a composite of end-stage kidney disease, doubling of the serum creatinine, or renal/cardiovascular death. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to investigate the association between biomarkers with adverse clinical events. RESULTS: At baseline, individuals with higher PlGF levels had more prevalent cardiovascular disease compared to those with lower values. Treatment with canagliflozin did not meaningfully change PlGF, sFLT-1, and VEGF-A concentrations at years 1 and 3. In a multivariable model, 1 unit increases in baseline log PlGF (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.76, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.23, 2.54, P-value = .002), sFLT-1 (HR: 3.34, [95% CI: 1.71, 6.52], P-value < .001), and PlGF/sFLT-1 ratio (HR: 4.83, [95% CI: 0.86, 27.01], P-value = .07) were associated with primary composite outcome, while 1 unit increase in log VEGF-A did not increase the risk of primary outcome (HR: 0.96 [95% CI: 0.81, 1.07]). Change by 1 year of each biomarker was also assessed: HR (95% CI) of primary composite outcome was 2.45 (1.70, 3.54) for 1 unit increase in 1-year concentration of log PlGF, 4.19 (2.18, 8.03) for 1 unit increase in 1-year concentration of log sFLT-1, and 21.08 (3.79, 117.4) for 1 unit increase in 1-year concentration of log PlGF/sFLT-1. Increase in 1-year concentrations of log VEGF-A was not associated with primary composite outcome (HR: 1.08, [95% CI: 0.93, 1.24], P-value = .30). CONCLUSIONS: People with T2D and DKD with elevated levels of PlGF, sFLT-1, and PlGF/sFLT-1 ratio were at a higher risk for cardiorenal events. Canagliflozin did not meaningfully decrease concentrations of PlGF, sFLT-1, and VEGF-A. CLINICAL TRIAL: CREDENCE, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02065791.

Comparison of tirzepatide and dulaglutide on major adverse cardiovascular events in participants with type 2 diabetes and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: SURPASS-CVOT design and baseline characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Tirzepatide, a once-weekly GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist, reduces blood glucose and body weight in people with type 2 diabetes. The cardiovascular (CV) safety and efficacy of tirzepatide have not been definitively assessed in a cardiovascular outcomes trial. METHODS: Tirzepatide is being studied in a randomized, double-blind, active-controlled CV outcomes trial. People with type 2 diabetes aged ≥40 years, with established atherosclerotic CV disease, HbA1c ≥7% to ≤10.5%, and body mass index ≥25 kg/m2 were randomized 1:1 to once weekly subcutaneous injection of either tirzepatide up to 15 mg or dulaglutide 1.5 mg. The primary outcome is time to first occurrence of any major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE), defined as CV death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. The trial is event-driven and planned to continue until ≥1,615 participants experience an adjudication-confirmed component of MACE. The primary analysis is noninferiority for time to first MACE of tirzepatide vs dulaglutide by demonstrating an upper confidence limit <1.05, which will also confirm superiority vs a putative placebo, and also to determine whether tirzepatide produces a greater CV benefit than dulaglutide (superiority analysis). RESULTS: Over 2 years, 13,299 people at 640 sites in 30 countries across all world regions were randomized. The mean age of randomized participants at baseline was 64.1 years, diabetes duration 14.7 years, HbA1c 8.4%, and BMI 32.6 kg/m2. Overall, 65.0% had coronary disease, of whom 47.3% reported prior myocardial infarction and 57.4% had prior coronary revascularization. 19.1% of participants had a prior stroke and 25.3% had peripheral artery disease. The trial is fully recruited and ongoing. CONCLUSION: SURPASS-CVOT will provide definitive evidence as to the CV safety and efficacy of tirzepatide as compared with dulaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist with established CV benefit.

Multiple Cardiac Biomarkers to Improve Prediction of Cardiovascular Events: Findings from the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Many studies have investigated whether single cardiac biomarkers improve cardiovascular risk prediction for primary prevention but whether a combined approach could further improve risk prediction is unclear. We aimed to test a sex-specific, combined cardiac biomarker approach for cardiovascular risk prediction. METHODS: In the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), cardiac troponin I (cTnI), cardiac troponin T (cTnT), and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured in stored serum using automated immunoassays. Sex-specific Cox models that included SCORE2 risk factors evaluated addition of single and combined biomarkers for prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Combined biomarker models were compared to a baseline model that included SCORE2 risk factors. RESULTS: The study population comprised 18 383 individuals (58.9% women, median age of 48 years [25th-75th percentile, 35-58 years]). During the median follow up of 11.6 (25th-75th percentile, 10.8-13.0) years, MACE occurred in 942 (5.1%) individuals. The greatest increase in discrimination with addition of individual biomarkers to the base model was for women GDF-15 and for men NT-proBNP (change in c-index: + 0.010 for women and +0.005 for men). For women, combined biomarker models that included GDF-15 and NT-proBNP (+0.012) or GDF-15 and cTnI (+0.013), but not CRP or cTnT, further improved discrimination. For men, combined biomarker models that included NT-proBNP and GDF-15 (+0.007), NT-proBNP and cTnI (+0.006), or NT-proBNP and CRP (+0.008), but not cTnT, further improved discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: A combined biomarker approach, particularly the use of GDF-15, NT-proBNP and cTnI, further refined cardiovascular risk estimates.

Natriuretic Peptides and Prognosis in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and High Risk for Cardiovascular Events.

BACKGROUND: The prognosis of individuals with and without an established heart failure (HF) diagnosis and similarly elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels is not well-known. METHODS AND RESULTS: CANVAS (Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study) trial participants were stratified according to baseline NT-proBNP quartiles and history of HF at baseline. Adjusted event rates per 1000 patient-years of follow-up for hospitalizations for HF, cardiovascular mortality, and kidney events were assessed, and hazard ratios (HR) were calculated using Cox proportional hazard models. Of the 3507 participants with available NT-proBNP concentrations, 471 (13.4%) had history of HF. The incidence rate per 1000 patient-years for hospitalizations for HF increased across the NT-proBNP quartiles in patients with (0, 2.8, 13.4, and 40.1; P < .001) and without (1.8, 3.1, 6.0, and 19.1; P < .001) HF, with a significantly higher risk in patients with HF compared with those without (with HF, quartile 3 HR 9.28 [interquartile range (IQR) 1.15-75.05]; P = .04; without HF, quartile 4 HR 4.86 [95% CI, 2.08-11.35]; P < .001). A similar higher risk for kidney events was seen in HF patients (with HF, quartile 4 HR 6.94 [95% CI, 2.66-18.08]; P = .001; without HF, quartile 4 HR 4.85 [95% CI, 3.02-7.80]; P = .001). Similar trends were seen for cardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular risk, an elevated NT-proBNP level was associated with worse HF and kidney outcomes in general, regardless of history of HF; however, the presence of a clinical diagnosis of HF at baseline was associated with an incrementally higher risk, particularly in higher NT-proBNP quartiles.

Cardiovascular and renal outcomes with varying degrees of kidney disease in high-risk people with type 2 diabetes: An epidemiological analysis of data from the AMPLITUDE-O trial.

AIMS: To estimate the incidence of a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) and a composite kidney outcome across estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) levels, and to determine whether efpeglenatide's effect varies with these indices. MATERIALS AND METHODS: AMPLITUDE-O trial data were used to estimate the relationship of eGFR, UACR, and Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) category to the hazard of MACE and the kidney composite. Interactions on these outcomes between eGFR and the UACR, and between each of these variables and efpeglenatide were also assessed. RESULTS: Baseline eGFR and UACR were available for 3983 participants (mean age 64.5 years). During a median follow-up of 1.8 years, the hazards of MACE and the kidney composite for the lowest versus highest eGFR third were 1.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2, 2.2) and 2.3 (95% CI 1.9, 2.8), respectively. The hazards for the highest versus the lowest UACR third were 2.3 (95% CI 1.8, 3.1) and 18.0 (95% CI 12.7, 25.5), respectively, and for the high- versus low-risk KDIGO categories the hazards were 2.4 (95% CI 1.8, 3.1) and 16.0 (95% CI 11.6, 22.0), respectively. eGFR and UACR were independent determinants of both outcomes, but negatively interacted with each other for the kidney outcome. Efpeglenatide's effect on both outcomes did not vary with any kidney disease measure (all interaction p values ≥0.26). CONCLUSIONS: In high-risk people with diabetes, eGFR, UACR, and KDIGO category have different relationships to incident cardiovascular and kidney outcomes. The beneficial effect of efpeglenatide on these outcomes is independent of kidney-related risk category.

Lifetime and 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with type 1 diabetes: The LIFE-T1D model.

AIMS: To develop and externally validate the LIFE-T1D model for the estimation of lifetime and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with type 1 diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A sex-specific competing risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model was derived in individuals with type 1 diabetes without prior CVD from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR), using age as the time axis. Predictors included age at diabetes onset, smoking status, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, glycated haemoglobin level, estimated glomerular filtration rate, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, albuminuria and retinopathy. The model was externally validated in the Danish Funen Diabetes Database (FDDB) and the UK Biobank. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 11.8 years (interquartile interval 6.1-17.1 years), 4608 CVD events and 1316 non-CVD deaths were observed in the NDR (n = 39 756). The internal validation c-statistic was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-0.85) and the external validation c-statistics were 0.77 (95% CI 0.74-0.81) for the FDDB (n = 2709) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.77) for the UK Biobank (n = 1022). Predicted risks were consistent with the observed incidence in the derivation and both validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The LIFE-T1D model can estimate lifetime risk of CVD and CVD-free life expectancy in individuals with type 1 diabetes without previous CVD. This model can facilitate individualized CVD prevention among individuals with type 1 diabetes. Validation in additional cohorts will improve future clinical implementation.

Effectiveness of lifestyle interventions/culturally bespoke programmes in South Asian ethnic groups targeting weight loss for prevention and/or remission of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis of intervention trials.

BACKGROUND: People from South Asian heritage are at high risk of type 2 diabetes, but there are limited specific strategies to prevent and manage this condition. The aim was to assess the effectiveness of culturally bespoke lifestyle programmes in South Asians that target weight loss for the prevention or remission of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of intervention trials. PubMed, Scopus, MEDLINE (EBSCOhost), CINAHL, PsycINFO and CENTRAL were searched. Human intervention trials (randomised controlled trials and quasi-experimental) investigating the effect of lifestyle interventions on the prevention and remission of T2DM in South Asians were included. Studies including participants at risk of T2DM (prevention trials) and having the disease (remission trials) with duration ≥12 weeks were eligible. For prevention trials, the primary outcome was change in weight (kg) from baseline; for remission trials, it was decrease in HbA1c to non-diabetic levels (HbA1c ≤ 6.5%) without diabetes medications. Prevention trials were separated into (i) lifestyle modification advice and (ii) lifestyle modification advice including a supervised physical activity programme. RESULTS: Twenty-four trials were eligible (21 prevention trials and 3 remission trials). In T2DM prevention trials involving only lifestyle modification advice, the mean postintervention difference in weight between intervention and control groups was -0.65 kg (95% confidence interval [CI]: -1.04, -0.26; p = 0.01). Lifestyle modification advice including a physical activity programme was associated with greater decreases in weight: -1.13 kg (95% CI: -2.04, -0.21; p = 0.02). Fasting blood glucose levels were slightly lower in intervention groups for both intervention subtypes, although there was no significant change in HbA1c levels or 2-h plasma glucose levels. Diabetes remission trials showed potential acceptability but were limited in number and involved a small sample size, and some did not include a control group. CONCLUSIONS: In South Asians, lifestyle interventions for prevention of T2DM offer only modest impacts on weight and glucose control and will unlikely reduce diabetes incidence. Alternative lifestyle interventions co-designed with members of the communities and aimed at both prevention and remission of T2DM must be urgently considered. Systematic review registration number: PROSPERO CRD42022385174 https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=385174.