Bowel movement frequency, stool consistency, and risk of disabling dementia: a population-based cohort study in Japan.

OBJECTIVES: This population-based study aimed to evaluate the association between bowel habits from midlife and dementia. STUDY DESIGN: This was a cohort study using certification records for national long-term care insurance in Japan. METHODS: Participants aged 50 to 79 years who reported bowel habits from eight districts within the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study (JPHC Study) were followed from 2006 to 2016 for incident dementia. Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were estimated for men and women separately using Cox proportional hazards models accounting for various lifestyle factors and medical histories. RESULTS: Among 19,396 men and 22,859 women, 1889 men and 2685 women were diagnosed with dementia. In men, the multivariable-adjusted HRs compared with bowel movement frequency (BMF) of once/day were 1.00 (95% CI: 0.87-1.14) for twice/day or more, 1.38 (1.16-1.65) for 5-6 times/week, 1.46 (1.18-1.80) for 3-4 times/week, and 1.79 (1.34-2.39) for <3 times/week (P for trend <0.001). In women, the corresponding HRs were 1.14 (0.998-1.31), 1.03 (0.91-1.17), 1.16 (1.01-1.33), and 1.29 (1.08-1.55) (P for trend = 0.043). Harder stool was associated with higher risk (P for trend: 0.0030 for men and 0.024 for women), with adjusted HRs compared to normal stool of 1.30 (1.08-1.57) for hard stool and 2.18 (1.23-3.85) for very hard stool in men, and 1.15 (1.002-1.32) and 1.84 (1.29-2.63) in women. CONCLUSIONS: Lower BMF and harder stool were each associated with higher risk of dementia.

Measures of body fatness and height in early and mid-to-late adulthood and prostate cancer: risk and mortality in The Pooling Project of Prospective Studies of Diet and Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Advanced prostate cancer etiology is poorly understood. Few studies have examined associations of anthropometric factors (e.g. early adulthood obesity) with advanced prostate cancer risk. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We carried out pooled analyses to examine associations between body fatness, height, and prostate cancer risk. Among 830 772 men, 51 734 incident prostate cancer cases were identified, including 4762 advanced (T4/N1/M1 or prostate cancer deaths) cases, 2915 advanced restricted (same as advanced, but excluding localized cancers that resulted in death) cases, 9489 high-grade cases, and 3027 prostate cancer deaths. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate study-specific hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI); results were pooled using random effects models. RESULTS: No statistically significant associations were observed for body mass index (BMI) in early adulthood for advanced, advanced restricted, and high-grade prostate cancer, and prostate cancer mortality. Positive associations were shown for BMI at baseline with advanced prostate cancer (HR = 1.30, 95% CI = 0.95-1.78) and prostate cancer mortality (HR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.12-2.07) comparing BMI ≥35.0 kg/m2 with 21-22.9 kg/m2. When considering early adulthood and baseline BMI together, a 27% higher prostate cancer mortality risk (95% CI = 9% to 49%) was observed for men with BMI <25.0 kg/m2 in early adulthood and BMI ≥30.0 kg/m2 at baseline compared with BMI <25.0 kg/m2 in early adulthood and BMI <30.0 kg/m2 at baseline. Baseline waist circumference, comparing ≥110 cm with <90 cm, and waist-to-hip ratio, comparing ≥1.00 with <0.90, were associated with significant 14%-16% increases in high-grade prostate cancer risk and suggestive or significant 20%-39% increases in prostate cancer mortality risk. Height was associated with suggestive or significant 33%-56% risks of advanced or advanced restricted prostate cancer and prostate cancer mortality, comparing ≥1.90 m with <1.65 m. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that height and total and central adiposity in mid-to-later adulthood, but not early adulthood adiposity, are associated with risk of advanced forms of prostate cancer. Thus, maintenance of healthy weight may help prevent advanced prostate cancer.

Reinvestigation of the virulence of Rhodococcus equi isolates from patients with and without AIDS.

Rhodococcus equi emerged as a zoonotic pathogen of human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients over the last three decades. Two virulence plasmid types of R. equi, pVAPA and pVAPB associated with equine and porcine isolates, have been recognized, and more recently, pVAPN, a novel host-associated virulence plasmid in R. equi, was found in bovine and caprine isolates. We reinvestigated 39 previously reported isolates of R. equi from patients with and without acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) by detecting vapA, vapB and vapN using PCR and plasmid profiling. After excluding one isolate that could not be cultured from frozen storage, eight isolates carried a virulence plasmid encoding vapA (pVAPA), 10 carried a virulence plasmid encoding vapB (pVAPB), seven carried a virulence plasmid encoding vapN (pVAPN) and 13 were negative for those genes. Of the 29 isolates from patients with AIDS, 7, 10 and 5 harboured pVAPA, pVAPB and pVAPN respectively. Among nine isolates from patients without AIDS, one and two harboured pVAPA and pVAPN respectively. This study demonstrated that pVAPN-positive R. equi existed in human isolates before 1994 and reaffirmed that equine-associated pVAPA-positive, porcine-associated pVAPB-positive and bovine- or caprine-associated pVAPN-positive R. equi are widely spread globally. Because domestic animals might be major sources of human infection, further research is needed to reveal the prevalence of pVAPN-positive R. equi infection in cattle and goats.

Cigarette smoking and cervical cancer risk: an evaluation based on a systematic review and meta-analysis among Japanese women.

BACKGROUND: There is a body of evidence to suggest that cigarette smoking increases the risk of cervical cancer in women, but no study has examined the magnitude of the association in Japanese women. Here, we evaluated the association between cigarette smoking and the risk of cervical cancer in Japanese women based on a systematic review of epidemiological evidence. METHODS: Original data were obtained from a MEDLINE search using PubMed or from a search of the 'Ichushi' database, as well as by a manual search. Evaluation of associations was based on the strength of evidence and the magnitude of association, together with biological plausibility as evaluated previously by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Meta-analysis of associations was also conducted to obtain a summarized overview of the data. RESULTS: We identified two cohort studies and three case-control studies. All five studies had indicated strong positive associations between cigarette smoking and the risk of cervical cancer. Our summary estimate indicated that the relative risk (RR) for individuals who had ever-smoked relative to never-smokers was 2.03 (95% confidence interval: 1.49-2.57). Four studies had also demonstrated dose-response relationships between cigarette smoking and the risk of cervical cancer. CONCLUSION: We conclude that there is convincing evidence that cigarette smoking increases the risk of cervical cancer among Japanese women.

Surgical starting time in the morning versus the afternoon: propensity score matched analysis of operative outcomes following laparoscopic colectomy for colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The number of colorectal cancer cases is increasing, and so the number of laparoscopic colectomy procedures being performed is also increasing, leading to an increased workload for surgeons. However, operating for prolonged time periods may cause surgeons to lose their concentration and develop fatigue. We hypothesized that there is a time-of-day variation in outcome for patients with colorectal cancer who undergo laparoscopic colectomy. The present study aimed to compare the operative outcome between laparoscopic colectomy for colorectal cancer performed in the morning versus the afternoon. METHODS: This was a single-center, retrospective study. All 1961 consecutive patients who underwent laparoscopic surgery for colorectal cancer between 2007 and 2017 were included; 1006 of these patients underwent morning surgery, while 955 underwent afternoon surgery. These patients were analyzed using propensity score matching, giving 791 patients in each group. The short- and long-term outcomes in both groups were compared. RESULTS: Before propensity score matching, the morning group had a larger mean tumor size than the afternoon group (30 cm vs 35 cm; P = 0.0035). After matching, the two groups did not significantly differ in any patient characteristics. Compared with the afternoon group, the morning group had a significantly lesser incidence of intra-operative organ injury (0.25% vs 1.13%; P = 0.027), and a significantly greater incidence of post-operative abdominal abscess (2.03% vs 0.75% P = 0.028). The incidences of other complications and morbidities were similar in both groups. The median operative time in the morning group (201 min) was significantly longer than that in the afternoon group (193 min; P = 0.0124). The two groups did not differ in 5-year overall survival rates and 5-year disease-free rates within any disease stage. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical start times are correlated with surgical outcomes. Our data will help to ensure the safest possible surgeries.

Menstrual and reproductive factors and risk of vertebral fractures in Japanese women: the Japan Public Health Center-based prospective (JPHC) study.

This large-scale population-based cohort study in Japan was conducted to clarify the effects of menstrual and reproductive factors on the risk of later-life vertebral fractures in women. Significant associations were seen for later menarche, irregular menstruation, and shorter reproductive years, corresponding to the effect of reproductive hormonal disturbance on bone metabolism. INTRODUCTION: This study investigated the association between menstrual and reproductive factors and the risk of later-life vertebral fractures in women. METHODS: Participants were 43,652 women aged 40-69 years who were followed in the 10-year survey of the Japan Public Health Center-based prospective (JPHC) study. Menstrual/reproductive factors were as follows: age at menarche and menopause, menstrual regularity and cycle length, natural or surgical menopause, years since menopause, reproductive years, parity, age at first birth, number of births, breastfeeding, and female hormone use. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by logistic regression analysis with adjustment for well-known fracture risk factors and menstrual/reproductive factors. RESULTS: During the 10-year period, 250 women reported first onset of vertebral fractures. Menarche at ≥16 years [OR (95% CI) = 2.08 (1.24-3.48)] compared to ≤ 13 years and irregular menstruation [1.42 (1.01-2.00)] compared to regular menstruation showed significantly higher adjusted ORs. Longer reproductive years had significant inverse association [0.96 (0.92-0.99)] in menopausal women. Women with both menarche ≥ 15 years and irregular menstruation had higher adjusted ORs (95% CI) [2.37 (1.51-3.73) in all women, 2.25 (1.35-3.76) in menopausal women] compared to women without these, and both factors had significant interaction, particularly in menopausal women (additive p = 0.025, multiplicative p = 0.0499). CONCLUSIONS: Menstrual and reproductive factors, corresponding to the effect of reproductive hormonal disturbance on bone metabolism, might affect the risk of later-life vertebral fractures.

Predictive performance of a genetic risk score using 11 susceptibility alleles for the incidence of Type 2 diabetes in a general Japanese population: a nested case-control study.

AIMS: To assess the predictive ability of a genetic risk score for the incidence of Type 2 diabetes in a general Japanese population. METHODS: This prospective case-control study, nested within a Japan Public Health Centre-based prospective study, included 466 participants with incident Type 2 diabetes over a 5-year period (cases) and 1361 control participants, as well as 1463 participants with existing diabetes and 1463 control participants. Eleven susceptibility single nucleotide polymorphisms, identified through genome-wide association studies and replicated in Japanese populations, were analysed. RESULTS: Most single nucleotide polymorphism loci showed directionally consistent associations with diabetes. From the combined samples, one single nucleotide polymorphism (rs2206734 at CDKAL1) reached a genome-wide significance level (odds ratio 1.28, 95% CI 1.18-1.40; P = 1.8 × 10-8 ). Three single nucleotide polymorphisms (rs2206734 in CDKAL1, rs2383208 in CDKN2A/B, and rs2237892 in KCNQ1) were nominally significantly associated with incident diabetes. Compared with the lowest quintile of the total number of risk alleles, the highest quintile had a higher odds of incident diabetes (odds ratio 2.34, 95% CI 1.59-3.46) after adjusting for conventional risk factors such as age, sex and BMI. The addition to the conventional risk factor-based model of a genetic risk score using the 11 single nucleotide polymorphisms significantly improved predictive performance; the c-statistic increased by 0.021, net reclassification improved by 6.2%, and integrated discrimination improved by 0.003. CONCLUSIONS: Our prospective findings suggest that the addition of a genetic risk score may provide modest but significant incremental predictive performance beyond that of the conventional risk factor-based model without biochemical markers.

Evidence-based cancer prevention recommendations for Japanese.

A comprehensive evidence-based cancer prevention recommendation for Japanese was developed. We evaluated the magnitude of the associations of lifestyle factors and infection with cancer through a systematic review of the literature, meta-analysis of published data, and pooled analysis of cohort studies in Japan. Then, we judged the strength of evidence based on the consistency of the associations between exposure and cancer and biological plausibility. Important factors were extracted and summarized as an evidence-based, current cancer prevention recommendation: 'Cancer Prevention Recommendation for Japanese'. The recommendation addresses six important domains related to exposure and cancer, including smoking, alcohol drinking, diet, physical activity, body weight and infection. The next step should focus on the development of effective behavior modification programs and their implementation and dissemination.

Validity of self-reported tooth counts and masticatory status study of a Japanese adult population.

Self-reported measures of oral health are often used to assess oral health in populations or groups, but their validity or reliability needs repeated confirmation. The objective of this cross-sectional study was to evaluate the validity of self-reported tooth counts and masticatory status, using data obtained from a sample of Japanese adults. A total of 2356 adults aged 40 to 75 years participated in a questionnaire survey and a clinical oral examination from 2013 through 2016. Self-reported measures were compared with clinically measured values. For tooth counts, mean clinical and self-reported tooth counts in all participants were 23.68 and 23.78 teeth, and no significant difference was detected. Spearman's, Pearson's and intra-class correlation coefficients between clinical and self-reported tooth counts were 0.771, 0.845 and 0.843, respectively. According to the Bland-Altman analysis, the mean difference between clinical and self-reported tooth counts was -0.098 (95% CI: -0.242, 0.047). The upper limit of agreement was 6.919 (95% CI: 6.669, 7.169), and the lower limit of agreement was -7.115 (95% CI: -7.365, -6.865). No significant fixed or proportional bias was observed. For masticatory status, the crude or age- and gender-adjusted mean numbers of total teeth, posterior teeth and 3 kinds of functional tooth units significantly decreased with the deterioration of masticatory status. This study indicated that self-reports were within an acceptable range of clinical measures. Therefore, self-reports were considered valid alternatives to clinical measures to estimate tooth counts and masticatory status in a current Japanese adult population.

High serum total cholesterol is associated with suicide mortality in Japanese women.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between serum total cholesterol (TC) and suicide using a large general population cohort with long follow-up times. METHOD: Analyses included 16 341 men and 28 905 women aged 40-69 from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study followed from 1990 to 2012. TC levels were defined per clinical guidelines: low (<4.66 mmol/l [180 mg/dl]), normal (4.66-5.70 mmol/l [180-220 mg/dl]), and high (≥5.70 mmol/l [220 mg/dl]). Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to determine hazard ratios (HR) and confidence intervals (CI) for suicide according to TC level. Mean follow-up time was 19 years for men and 20 years for women. RESULTS: There were 185 suicides (men: 107; women: 78) during follow-up. Compared to women with normal TC, women with high TC had a significantly increased risk of suicide (HR = 1.90, 95% CI, 1.13-3.19). Incremental increases (0.26 mmol/l [10 mg/dl]) of low-density lipoprotein (HR = 1.11, 95% CI, 1.02-1.21) and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR = 1.09, 95% CI, 1.01-1.18) were also associated with increased risk of suicide in women. There was no association between TC levels, or lipid fractions, and suicide in men. CONCLUSION: High TC levels may be associated with an increased risk of suicide in women.

Coping strategies and risk of cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality: the Japan Public Health Center-based prospective Study.

AIMS: Coping strategies may be significantly associated with health outcomes. This is the first study to investigate the association between baseline coping strategies and cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality in a general population cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Japan Public Health Center-based prospective Study asked questions on coping in its third follow-up survey (2000-04). Analyses on CVD incidence and mortality included 57 017 subjects aged 50-79 without a history of CVD and who provided complete answers on approach- and avoidance-oriented coping behaviours and strategies. Cox regression models, adjusted for confounders, were used to determine hazard ratios (HRs) according to coping style. Mean follow-up time was 7.9 years for incidence and 8.0 years for mortality.The premorbid use of an approach-oriented coping strategy was inversely associated with incidence of stroke (HR = 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73-1.00) and CVD mortality (HR = 0.74; 95% CI, 0.55-0.99). Stroke subtype analyses revealed an inverse association between the approach-oriented coping strategy and incidence of ischaemic stroke (HR = 0.79; 95% CI, 0.64-0.98) and a positive association between the combined coping strategy and incidence of intra-parenchymal haemorrhage (HR = 2.03; 95% CI, 1.01-4.10). Utilizing an avoidance coping strategy was associated with increased mortality from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) only in hypertensive individuals (HR = 3.46; 95% CI, 1.07-11.18). The coping behaviours fantasizing and positive reappraisal were associated with increased risk of CVD incidence (HR = 1.24; 95% CI, 1.03-1.50) and reduced risk of IHD mortality (HR = 0.63; 95% CI, 0.40-0.99), respectively. CONCLUSION: An approach-oriented coping strategy, i.e. proactively dealing with sources of stress, may be associated with significantly reduced stroke incidence and CVD mortality in a Japanese population-based cohort.

Soy food and isoflavone intake and endometrial cancer risk: the Japan Public Health Center-based prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: Compared with western populations, the consumption of soy foods among Japanese is very high and the incidence of endometrial cancer very low. We evaluated the association of soy food and isoflavone intake with endometrial cancer risk in Japanese women. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Ten public health centre areas in Japan. POPULATION: Forty nine thousand one hundred and twenty-one women of age 45-74 years who responded to a 5-year follow-up survey questionnaire. METHODS: Intakes of soy foods as well as other covariates were assessed in 1995-1998 by a self-administered food frequency questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of endometrial cancer. RESULTS: During an average of 12.1 years of follow up, 112 newly diagnosed endometrial cancer cases were identified. Energy-adjusted intakes of soy food and isoflavone were not associated with the risk of endometrial cancer. The multivariate-adjusted HR per 25 g/day increase in the intake of soy food was 1.02 (95% CI 0.94-1.10), and the corresponding value for isoflavone intake per 15 mg/day was 1.01 (95% CI 0.84-1.22). CONCLUSION: In this population-based prospective cohort study of Japanese women, we observed no evidence of a protective association between soy food or isoflavone intake and endometrial cancer risk.

Modification of the excess risk of coronary heart disease due to smoking by seafood/fish intake.

Seafood/fish intake has been regarded as a protective factor for coronary heart disease (CHD), while smoking is a strong risk factor. To examine whether associations between smoking and risk of CHD are modified by seafood/fish intake, we studied 72,012 Japanese men and women aged 45-74 years who completed 2 food frequency questionnaires, 5 years apart, during the period 1995-2009. After 878,163 person-years of follow-up, 584 incident cases of CHD (101 fatal and 483 nonfatal), including 516 myocardial infarctions, were documented. There was a clear dose-response association between smoking and CHD risk among subjects with a low seafood/fish intake (<86 g/day) but not among those with a high seafood/fish intake (≥86 g/day). Compared with never smokers, the multivariable hazard ratios in light (1-19 cigarettes/day), moderate (20-29 cigarettes/day), and heavy (≥30 cigarettes/day) smokers were 2.39 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.60, 3.56), 2.74 (95% CI: 1.90, 3.95), and 3.24 (95% CI: 2.12, 4.95), respectively, among low seafood/fish eaters and 1.13 (95% CI: 0.64, 1.99), 1.29 (95% CI: 0.95, 2.04), and 2.00 (95% CI: 1.18, 3.51), respectively, among high seafood/fish eaters. Compared with heavy smokers with a low seafood/fish intake, light smokers with a high seafood/fish intake had substantially reduced risk of CHD (hazard ratio = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.32, 0.98). High seafood/fish intake attenuated the positive association between smoking and risk of CHD.

Rice, bread, noodle and cereal intake and colorectal cancer in Japanese men and women: the Japan Public Health Center-based prospective Study (JPHC Study).

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence rate increased rapidly in Japan between the 1950s and 1990s. We examined the association between rice intake and CRC risk in comparison with bread, noodles and cereal among Japanese adults enrolled in the Japan Public Health Center-based prospective Study. METHODS: A total of 73,501 Japanese men and women were followed-up from 1995 to 1999 until the end of 2008 for an average of 11 years. During 801,937 person-years of follow-up, we identified 1276 incident cases of CRC. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of CRC for rice, noodle, bread and cereal intake were calculated by Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Overall, no significant association was observed for the highest quartile of rice intake compared with the lowest and the risk of CRC and its subsites in men (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.56-1.07) and women (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.71-1.68). However, a non-significant inverse trend was observed between rice intake and rectal cancer in men. No clear patterns of association were observed in bread, noodle and cereal intake. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that the consumption of rice does not have a substantial impact on the risk of CRC in the Japanese population.

Physical activity and 10-year incidence of self-reported vertebral fractures in Japanese women: the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

UNLABELLED: This study assessed the effects of physical activity on a 10-year incidence of self-reported vertebral fractures in adult women of a large Japanese cohort. Medium levels of strenuous activity and long-duration sedentary activity were associated with a lower incidence of vertebral fractures; association patterns appear to be different from hip fractures. INTRODUCTION: Physical activity helps prevent hip fracture, but little is known about the longitudinal association between physical activity and vertebral fractures. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of physical activity on the 10-year incidence of symptomatic vertebral fractures using data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study. METHODS: Baseline studies were conducted in 1993-1994, and the follow-up study was conducted 10 years later. We analyzed 23,757 women aged 40-69 years. At baseline, physical activity was assessed as a predictor by using a questionnaire. Subjects were asked to report vertebral fractures that occurred during the 10-year follow-up period. Relative risks (RRs) adjusted for confounders were estimated by multiple logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The 10-year cumulative incidence of vertebral fractures was 0.67%. Those who engaged in strenuous physical activity of <1 h/day had a significantly lower incidence of vertebral fractures than those who did not engage in such activity (RR = 0.52, 95% CI 0.28-0.97), while those engaged in such activity ≥1 h/day did not (RR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.58-1.14). Long-duration sedentary activity was associated with a low incidence of vertebral fractures (P for trend = 0.0002), but the frequencies of sports activities and metabolic equivalents were not (P for trend = 0.0729 and 0.4341, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Strenuous activity and sedentary activity are associated with the incidence of vertebral fractures, although the association may not be linear. The pattern of association between physical activity and vertebral fractures appears to be different from that of hip fractures.

Timing of adjunctive therapy in the treatment of depression: a chart review.

INTRODUCTION: The objective of this study was to examine the evolution of antidepressant switch and adjunctive therapy. METHODS: This chart review was conducted at 6 primary psychiatric clinics or hospitals, in Tokyo, Japan. A chart review of longitudinal prescriptions was conducted regarding 633 outpatients with major depressive disorder for up to 2 years after their first visit. Patients who had already received antidepressants prior to the visit were excluded. RESULTS: 22.6% (N=143) of the patients completed or continued the outpatient treatment over the 2 years while 27 (4.3%), 23 (3.6%), and 439 (69.4%) patients discontinued it due to hospitalization, referral to another clinic, and loss to follow-up, respectively. A total of 597 episodes of antidepressant treatment were identified. Among them, 482 episodes (80.7%) were associated with the suggested dose ranges while antidepressant drugs were under-dosed in 19.3% (N=115) of the episodes. 50 patients (7.9%) received adjunctive therapy; it was employed after a median of only one antidepressant had been tried. CONCLUSION: Psychiatrists may be hasty in prescribing an adjunctive therapy in the treatment of depression.

Time-varying living arrangements and suicide death in the general population sample: 14-year causal survival analysis via pooled logistic regression.

AIMS: While past research suggested that living arrangements are associated with suicide death, no study has examined the impact of sustained living arrangements and the change in living arrangements. Also, previous survival analysis studies only reported a single hazard ratio (HR), whereas the actual HR may change over time. We aimed to address these limitations using causal inference approaches. METHODS: Multi-point data from a general Japanese population sample were used. Participants reported their living arrangements twice within a 5-year time interval. After that, suicide death, non-suicide death and all-cause mortality were evaluated over 14 years. We used inverse probability weighted pooled logistic regression and cumulative incidence curve, evaluating the association of time-varying living arrangements with suicide death. We also studied non-suicide death and all-cause mortality to contextualize the association. Missing data for covariates were handled using random forest imputation. RESULTS: A total of 86,749 participants were analysed, with a mean age (standard deviation) of 51.7 (7.90) at baseline. Of these, 306 died by suicide during the 14-year follow-up. Persistently living alone was associated with an increased risk of suicide death (risk difference [RD]: 1.1%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.3-2.5%; risk ratio [RR]: 4.00, 95% CI: 1.83-7.41), non-suicide death (RD: 7.8%, 95% CI: 5.2-10.5%; RR: 1.56, 95% CI: 1.38-1.74) and all-cause mortality (RD: 8.7%, 95% CI: 6.2-11.3%; RR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.42-1.79) at the end of the follow-up. The cumulative incidence curve showed that these associations were consistent throughout the follow-up. Across all types of mortality, the increased risk was smaller for those who started to live with someone and those who transitioned to living alone. The results remained robust in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals who persistently live alone have an increased risk of suicide death as well as non-suicide death and all-cause mortality, whereas this impact is weaker for those who change their living arrangements.

Long-term exposure to particulate matter and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in an analysis of multiple Asian cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to ambient air pollution is associated with a significant number of deaths. Much of the evidence associating air pollution with adverse effects is from North American and Europe, partially due to incomplete data in other regions limiting location specific examinations. The aim of the current paper is to leverage satellite derived air quality data to examine the relationship between ambient particulate matter and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Asia. METHODS: Six cohorts from the Asia Cohort Consortium provided residential information for participants, recruited between 1991 and 2008, across six countries (Bangladesh, India, Iran, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan). Ambient particulate material (PM2·5) levels for the year of enrolment (or 1998 if enrolled earlier) were assigned utilizing satellite and sensor-based maps. Cox proportional models were used to examine the association between ambient air pollution and all-cause and cause-specific mortality (all cancer, lung cancer, cardiovascular and lung disease). Models were additionally adjusted for urbanicity (representing urban and built characteristics) and stratified by smoking status in secondary analyses. Country-specific findings were pooled via random-effects meta-analysis. FINDINGS: More than 300,000 participants across six cohorts were included, representing more than 4-million-person years. A positive relationship was observed between a 5 µg/m (Dockery et al., 1993) increase in PM2·5 and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 1·06, 95 % CI: 0.99, 1·13). The additional adjustment for urbanicity resulted in increased associations between PM2.5 and mortality outcomes, including all-cause mortality (1·04, 95 % CI: 0·97, 1·11). Results were generally similar regardless of whether one was a current, never, or ex-smoker. INTERPRETATION: Using satellite and remote sensing technology we showed that associations between PM2.5 and all-cause and cause-specific Hazard Ratios estimated are similar to those reported for U.S. and European cohorts. FUNDING: This project was supported by the Health Effects Institute. Grant number #4963-RFA/18-5. Specific funding support for individual cohorts is described in the Acknowledgements.