Evaluating tributary restoration potential for Pacific salmon recovery.

Although habitat restoration can play a key role in the conservation of imperiled species, for animals that demonstrate long migrations and complex life histories, reliance on physical restoration of isolated habitat patches comes with considerable uncertainty. Nevertheless, within freshwater ecosystems, stream restoration has become a major conservation focus, with millions of dollars spent annually on efforts aimed at recovering degraded habitat and imperiled riverine species. Within this context, we addressed fundamental uncertainties of the focus on tributary restoration for recovery of salmon: (1) Is there potential for improving habitat in tributaries? (2) What magnitude of early survival improvement can be expected based on stream restoration? and (3) Will incremental increases in early survival be sufficient to ensure viability overall? We combined simple mechanistic habitat models, population viability measures, and categorical filters to quantify "restoration potential," expressed as increased total life-cycle survival in response to restored tributary condition, across 32 populations composing five major population groups (MPG). A wide gap remains between how much survival improvement is needed vs. what is likely to occur; restoration potential meets the necessary minimum increase needed for only four populations within one MPG. The remaining populations (84%, 4 MPG) still fall far below the survival increase needed for future viability. In addition, across all populations and groups, a 171% increase (on average) in total life-cycle survival is needed; only approximately 106% appears possible. A recovery strategy for these salmon that relies largely on tributary restoration to mitigate for known mortality imposed at other life stages (e.g., migration through hydropower dams) is risky with a low probability of success. We demonstrate an approach for completing an a priori evaluation of restoration potential linked to population viability, such that habitat restoration efforts can be biologically prioritized and scarce resources can be allocated to efforts with the greatest potential and the least amount of risk, in terms of meeting conservation and recovery goals.

Evolutionary effects of alternative artificial propagation programs: implications for viability of endangered anadromous salmonids.

Most hatchery programs for anadromous salmonids have been initiated to increase the numbers of fish for harvest, to mitigate for habitat losses, or to increase abundance in populations at low abundance. However, the manner in which these programs are implemented can have significant impacts on the evolutionary trajectory and long-term viability of populations. In this paper, we review the potential benefits and risks of hatchery programs relative to the conservation of species listed under the US Endangered Species Act. To illustrate, we present the range of potential effects within a population as well as among populations of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) where changes to major hatchery programs are being considered. We apply evolutionary considerations emerging from these examples to suggest broader principles for hatchery uses that are consistent with conservation goals. We conclude that because of the evolutionary risks posed by artificial propagation programs, they should not be viewed as a substitute for addressing other limiting factors that prevent achieving viability. At the population level, artificial propagation programs that are implemented as a short-term approach to avoid imminent extinction are more likely to achieve long-term population viability than approaches that rely on long-term supplementation. In addition, artificial propagation programs can have out-of-population impacts that should be considered in conservation planning.