Efficient designs and analysis of two-phase studies with longitudinal binary data.

Researchers interested in understanding the relationship between a readily available longitudinal binary outcome and a novel biomarker exposure can be confronted with ascertainment costs that limit sample size. In such settings, two-phase studies can be cost-effective solutions that allow researchers to target informative individuals for exposure ascertainment and increase estimation precision for time-varying and/or time-fixed exposure coefficients. In this paper, we introduce a novel class of residual-dependent sampling (RDS) designs that select informative individuals using data available on the longitudinal outcome and inexpensive covariates. Together with the RDS designs, we propose a semiparametric analysis approach that efficiently uses all data to estimate the parameters. We describe a numerically stable and computationally efficient EM algorithm to maximize the semiparametric likelihood. We examine the finite sample operating characteristics of the proposed approaches through extensive simulation studies, and compare the efficiency of our designs and analysis approach with existing ones. We illustrate the usefulness of the proposed RDS designs and analysis method in practice by studying the association between a genetic marker and poor lung function among patients enrolled in the Lung Health Study (Connett et al, 1993).

Population Genomic Screening for Three Common Hereditary Conditions : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The cost-effectiveness of screening the U.S. population for Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Tier 1 genomic conditions is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of simultaneous genomic screening for Lynch syndrome (LS), hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndrome (HBOC), and familial hypercholesterolemia (FH). DESIGN: Decision analytic Markov model. DATA SOURCES: Published literature. TARGET POPULATION: Separate age-based cohorts (ages 20 to 60 years at time of screening) of racially and ethnically representative U.S. adults. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: U.S. health care payer. INTERVENTION: Population genomic screening using clinical sequencing with a restricted panel of high-evidence genes, cascade testing of first-degree relatives, and recommended preventive interventions for identified probands. OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident breast, ovarian, and colorectal cancer cases; incident cardiovascular events; quality-adjusted survival; and costs. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Screening 100 000 unselected 30-year-olds resulted in 101 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 77 to 127) fewer overall cancer cases and 15 (95% UI, 4 to 28) fewer cardiovascular events and an increase of 495 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (95% UI, 401 to 757) at an incremental cost of $33.9 million (95% UI, $27.0 million to $41.1 million). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $68 600 per QALY gained (95% UI, $41 800 to $88 900). RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Screening 30-, 40-, and 50-year-old cohorts was cost-effective in 99%, 88%, and 19% of probabilistic simulations, respectively, at a $100 000-per-QALY threshold. The test costs at which screening 30-, 40-, and 50-year-olds reached the $100 000-per-QALY threshold were $413, $290, and $166, respectively. Variant prevalence and adherence to preventive interventions were also highly influential parameters. LIMITATIONS: Population averages for model inputs, which were derived predominantly from European populations, vary across ancestries and health care environments. CONCLUSION: Population genomic screening with a restricted panel of high-evidence genes associated with 3 CDC Tier 1 conditions is likely to be cost-effective in U.S. adults younger than 40 years if the testing cost is relatively low and probands have access to preventive interventions. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Human Genome Research Institute.

Design and analysis of two-phase studies with multivariate longitudinal data.

Two-phase studies are crucial when outcome and covariate data are available in a first-phase sample (e.g., a cohort study), but costs associated with retrospective ascertainment of a novel exposure limit the size of the second-phase sample, in whom the exposure is collected. For longitudinal outcomes, one class of two-phase studies stratifies subjects based on an outcome vector summary (e.g., an average or a slope over time) and oversamples subjects in the extreme value strata while undersampling subjects in the medium-value stratum. Based on the choice of the summary, two-phase studies for longitudinal data can increase efficiency of time-varying and/or time-fixed exposure parameter estimates. In this manuscript, we extend efficient, two-phase study designs to multivariate longitudinal continuous outcomes, and we detail two analysis approaches. The first approach is a multiple imputation analysis that combines complete data from subjects selected for phase two with the incomplete data from those not selected. The second approach is a conditional maximum likelihood analysis that is intended for applications where only data from subjects selected for phase two are available. Importantly, we show that both approaches can be applied to secondary analyses of previously conducted two-phase studies. We examine finite sample operating characteristics of the two approaches and use the Lung Health Study (Connett et al. (1993), Controlled Clinical Trials, 14, 3S-19S) to examine genetic associations with lung function decline over time.

Generalized case-control sampling under generalized linear models.

A generalized case-control (GCC) study, like the standard case-control study, leverages outcome-dependent sampling (ODS) to extend to nonbinary responses. We develop a novel, unifying approach for analyzing GCC study data using the recently developed semiparametric extension of the generalized linear model (GLM), which is substantially more robust to model misspecification than existing approaches based on parametric GLMs. For valid estimation and inference, we use a conditional likelihood to account for the biased sampling design. We describe analysis procedures for estimation and inference for the semiparametric GLM under a conditional likelihood, and we discuss problems with estimation and inference under a conditional likelihood when the response distribution is misspecified. We demonstrate the flexibility of our approach over existing ones through extensive simulation studies, and we apply the methodology to an analysis of the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old study, which motives our research. The proposed approach yields a simple yet versatile solution for handling ODS in a wide variety of possible response distributions and sampling schemes encountered in practice.

Analyzing clustered continuous response variables with ordinal regression models.

Continuous response data are regularly transformed to meet regression modeling assumptions. However, approaches taken to identify the appropriate transformation can be ad hoc and can increase model uncertainty. Further, the resulting transformations often vary across studies leading to difficulties with synthesizing and interpreting results. When a continuous response variable is measured repeatedly within individuals or when continuous responses arise from clusters, analyses have the additional challenge caused by within-individual or within-cluster correlations. We extend a widely used ordinal regression model, the cumulative probability model (CPM), to fit clustered, continuous response data using generalized estimating equations for ordinal responses. With the proposed approach, estimates of marginal model parameters, cumulative distribution functions , expectations, and quantiles conditional on covariates can be obtained without pretransformation of the response data. While computational challenges arise with large numbers of distinct values of the continuous response variable, we propose feasible and computationally efficient approaches to fit CPMs under commonly used working correlation structures. We study finite sample operating characteristics of the estimators via simulation and illustrate their implementation with two data examples. One studies predictors of CD4:CD8 ratios in a cohort living with HIV, and the other investigates the association of a single nucleotide polymorphism and lung function decline in a cohort with early chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Model misspecification and robust analysis for outcome-dependent sampling designs under generalized linear models.

Outcome-dependent sampling (ODS) is a commonly used class of sampling designs to increase estimation efficiency in settings where response information (and possibly adjuster covariates) is available, but the exposure is expensive and/or cumbersome to collect. We focus on ODS within the context of a two-phase study, where in Phase One the response and adjuster covariate information is collected on a large cohort that is representative of the target population, but the expensive exposure variable is not yet measured. In Phase Two, using response information from Phase One, we selectively oversample a subset of informative subjects in whom we collect expensive exposure information. Importantly, the Phase Two sample is no longer representative, and we must use ascertainment-correcting analysis procedures for valid inferences. In this paper, we focus on likelihood-based analysis procedures, particularly a conditional-likelihood approach and a full-likelihood approach. Whereas the full-likelihood retains incomplete Phase One data for subjects not selected into Phase Two, the conditional-likelihood explicitly conditions on Phase Two sample selection (ie, it is a "complete case" analysis procedure). These designs and analysis procedures are typically implemented assuming a known, parametric model for the response distribution. However, in this paper, we approach analyses implementing a novel semi-parametric extension to generalized linear models (SPGLM) to develop likelihood-based procedures with improved robustness to misspecification of distributional assumptions. We specifically focus on the common setting where standard GLM distributional assumptions are not satisfied (eg, misspecified mean/variance relationship). We aim to provide practical design guidance and flexible tools for practitioners in these settings.

Renin-Angiotensin System Modulation With Synthetic Angiotensin (1-7) and Angiotensin II Type 1 Receptor-Biased Ligand in Adults With COVID-19: Two Randomized Clinical Trials.

Importance: Preclinical models suggest dysregulation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection may increase the relative activity of angiotensin II compared with angiotensin (1-7) and may be an important contributor to COVID-19 pathophysiology. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of RAS modulation using 2 investigational RAS agents, TXA-127 (synthetic angiotensin [1-7]) and TRV-027 (an angiotensin II type 1 receptor-biased ligand), that are hypothesized to potentiate the action of angiotensin (1-7) and mitigate the action of the angiotensin II. Design, Setting, and Participants: Two randomized clinical trials including adults hospitalized with acute COVID-19 and new-onset hypoxemia were conducted at 35 sites in the US between July 22, 2021, and April 20, 2022; last follow-up visit: July 26, 2022. Interventions: A 0.5-mg/kg intravenous infusion of TXA-127 once daily for 5 days or placebo. A 12-mg/h continuous intravenous infusion of TRV-027 for 5 days or placebo. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was oxygen-free days, an ordinal outcome that classifies a patient's status at day 28 based on mortality and duration of supplemental oxygen use; an adjusted odds ratio (OR) greater than 1.0 indicated superiority of the RAS agent vs placebo. A key secondary outcome was 28-day all-cause mortality. Safety outcomes included allergic reaction, new kidney replacement therapy, and hypotension. Results: Both trials met prespecified early stopping criteria for a low probability of efficacy. Of 343 patients in the TXA-127 trial (226 [65.9%] aged 31-64 years, 200 [58.3%] men, 225 [65.6%] White, and 274 [79.9%] not Hispanic), 170 received TXA-127 and 173 received placebo. Of 290 patients in the TRV-027 trial (199 [68.6%] aged 31-64 years, 168 [57.9%] men, 195 [67.2%] White, and 225 [77.6%] not Hispanic), 145 received TRV-027 and 145 received placebo. Compared with placebo, both TXA-127 (unadjusted mean difference, -2.3 [95% CrI, -4.8 to 0.2]; adjusted OR, 0.88 [95% CrI, 0.59 to 1.30]) and TRV-027 (unadjusted mean difference, -2.4 [95% CrI, -5.1 to 0.3]; adjusted OR, 0.74 [95% CrI, 0.48 to 1.13]) resulted in no difference in oxygen-free days. In the TXA-127 trial, 28-day all-cause mortality occurred in 22 of 163 patients (13.5%) in the TXA-127 group vs 22 of 166 patients (13.3%) in the placebo group (adjusted OR, 0.83 [95% CrI, 0.41 to 1.66]). In the TRV-027 trial, 28-day all-cause mortality occurred in 29 of 141 patients (20.6%) in the TRV-027 group vs 18 of 140 patients (12.9%) in the placebo group (adjusted OR, 1.52 [95% CrI, 0.75 to 3.08]). The frequency of the safety outcomes was similar with either TXA-127 or TRV-027 vs placebo. Conclusions and Relevance: In adults with severe COVID-19, RAS modulation (TXA-127 or TRV-027) did not improve oxygen-free days vs placebo. These results do not support the hypotheses that pharmacological interventions that selectively block the angiotensin II type 1 receptor or increase angiotensin (1-7) improve outcomes for patients with severe COVID-19. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04924660.

Frequency of benign neutropenia among Black versus White individuals undergoing a bone marrow assessment.

Healthy individuals in the United States identified as having Black race have lower neutrophil counts, on average, than individuals identified as having White race, which could result in more negative diagnostic evaluations for neutropenia. To test this hypothesis, the proportion of evaluations where the final diagnosis was clinically insignificant neutropenia for Black and White individuals who underwent an evaluation by a haematologist that included a bone marrow (BM) biopsy to investigate neutropenia was assessed. 172 individuals without prior haematological diagnoses who underwent a haematological evaluation to investigate neutropenia. Individuals diagnosed with clinically insignificant neutropenia between Black and White individuals were compared using a propensity-score-adjusted logistic regression. Of 172 individuals, 42 (24%) were classified as Black race, 86 (50%) were males, and the 79 (46%) were over 18 years old. A BM biopsy did not identify pathology in 95% (40 of 42) of Black individuals and 68% (89 of 130) of White Individuals. Black individuals (25 of 42 [60%]) received a final diagnosis of clinically insignificant neutropenia, compared to White individuals (12 of 130 [9%]) (adjusted odds ratio =7.9, 95% CI: 3.1 - 21.1). We conclude that black individuals were more likely to receive a diagnosis of clinically insignificant neutropenia after haematological assessment.

Model-assisted analyses of longitudinal, ordinal outcomes with absorbing states.

Studies of critically ill, hospitalized patients often follow participants and characterize daily health status using an ordinal outcome variable. Statistically, longitudinal proportional odds models are a natural choice in these settings since such models can parsimoniously summarize differences across patient groups and over time. However, when one or more of the outcome states is absorbing, the proportional odds assumption for the follow-up time parameter will likely be violated, and more flexible longitudinal models are needed. Motivated by the VIOLET Study (Ginde et al), a parallel-arm, randomized clinical trial of Vitamin D3 in critically ill patients, we discuss and contrast several treatment effect estimands based on time-dependent odds ratio parameters, and we detail contemporary modeling approaches. In VIOLET, the outcome is a four-level ordinal variable where the lowest "not alive" state is absorbing and the highest "at-home" state is nearly absorbing. We discuss flexible extensions of the proportional odds model for longitudinal data that can be used for either model-based inference, where the odds ratio estimator is taken directly from the model fit, or for model-assisted inferences, where heterogeneity across cumulative log odds dichotomizations is modeled and results are summarized to obtain an overall odds ratio estimator. We focus on direct estimation of cumulative probability model (CPM) parameters using likelihood-based analysis procedures that naturally handle absorbing states. We illustrate the modeling procedures, the relative precision of model-based and model-assisted estimators, and the possible differences in the values for which the estimators are consistent through simulations and analysis of the VIOLET Study data.

Two-wave two-phase outcome-dependent sampling designs, with applications to longitudinal binary data.

Two-phase outcome-dependent sampling (ODS) designs are useful when resource constraints prohibit expensive exposure ascertainment on all study subjects. One class of ODS designs for longitudinal binary data stratifies subjects into three strata according to those who experience the event at none, some, or all follow-up times. For time-varying covariate effects, exclusively selecting subjects with response variation can yield highly efficient estimates. However, if interest lies in the association of a time-invariant covariate, or the joint associations of time-varying and time-invariant covariates with the outcome, then the optimal design is unknown. Therefore, we propose a class of two-wave two-phase ODS designs for longitudinal binary data. We split the second-phase sample selection into two waves, between which an interim design evaluation analysis is conducted. The interim design evaluation analysis uses first-wave data to conduct a simulation-based search for the optimal second-wave design that will improve the likelihood of study success. Although we focus on longitudinal binary response data, the proposed design is general and can be applied to other response distributions. We believe that the proposed designs can be useful in settings where (1) the expected second-phase sample size is fixed and one must tailor stratum-specific sampling probabilities to maximize estimation efficiency, or (2) relative sampling probabilities are fixed across sampling strata and one must tailor sample size to achieve a desired precision. We describe the class of designs, examine finite sampling operating characteristics, and apply the designs to an exemplar longitudinal cohort study, the Lung Health Study.

Survey design and analysis considerations when utilizing misclassified sampling strata.

BACKGROUND: A large multi-center survey was conducted to understand patients' perspectives on biobank study participation with particular focus on racial and ethnic minorities. In order to enrich the study sample with racial and ethnic minorities, disproportionate stratified sampling was implemented with strata defined by electronic health records (EHR) that are known to be inaccurate. We investigate the effect of sampling strata misclassification in complex survey design. METHODS: Under non-differential and differential misclassification in the sampling strata, we compare the validity and precision of three simple and common analysis approaches for settings in which the primary exposure is used to define the sampling strata. We also compare the precision gains/losses observed from using a disproportionate stratified sampling scheme compared to using a simple random sample under varying degrees of strata misclassification. RESULTS: Disproportionate stratified sampling can result in more efficient parameter estimates of the rare subgroups (race/ethnic minorities) in the sampling strata compared to simple random sampling. When sampling strata misclassification is non-differential with respect to the outcome, a design-agnostic analysis was preferred over model-based and design-based analyses. All methods yielded unbiased parameter estimates but standard error estimates were lowest from the design-agnostic analysis. However, when misclassification is differential, only the design-based method produced valid parameter estimates of the variables included in the sampling strata. CONCLUSIONS: In complex survey design, when the interest is in making inference on rare subgroups, we recommend implementing disproportionate stratified sampling over simple random sampling even if the sampling strata are misclassified. If the misclassification is non-differential, we recommend a design-agnostic analysis. However, if the misclassification is differential, we recommend using design-based analyses.

Methodological Issues in Population-Based Studies of Multigenerational Associations.

Laboratory-based animal research has revealed a number of exposures with multigenerational effects-ones that affect the children and grandchildren of those directly exposed. An important task for epidemiology is to investigate these relationships in human populations. Without the relative control achieved in laboratory settings, however, population-based studies of multigenerational associations have had to use a broader range of study designs. Current strategies to obtain multigenerational data include exploiting birth registries and existing cohort studies, ascertaining exposures within them, and measuring outcomes across multiple generations. In this paper, we describe the methodological challenges inherent to multigenerational studies in human populations. After outlining standard taxonomy to facilitate discussion of study designs and target exposure associations, we highlight the methodological issues, focusing on the interplay between study design, analysis strategy, and the fact that outcomes may be related to family size. In a simulation study, we show that different multigenerational designs lead to estimates of different exposure associations with distinct scientific interpretations. Nevertheless, target associations can be recovered by incorporating (possibly) auxiliary information, and we provide insights into choosing an appropriate target association. Finally, we identify areas requiring further methodological development.

Two-Phase, Generalized Case-Control Designs for the Study of Quantitative Longitudinal Outcomes.

We propose a general class of 2-phase epidemiologic study designs for quantitative, longitudinal data that are useful when phase 1 longitudinal outcome and covariate data are available but data on the exposure (e.g., a biomarker) can only be collected on a subset of subjects during phase 2. To conduct a study using a design in the class, one first summarizes the longitudinal outcomes by fitting a simple linear regression of the response on a time-varying covariate for each subject. Sampling strata are defined by splitting the estimated regression intercept or slope distributions into distinct (low, medium, and high) regions. Stratified sampling is then conducted from strata defined by the intercepts, by the slopes, or from a mixture. In general, samples selected with extreme intercept values will yield low variances for associations of time-fixed exposures with the outcome and samples enriched with extreme slope values will yield low variances for associations of time-varying exposures with the outcome (including interactions with time-varying exposures). We describe ascertainment-corrected maximum likelihood and multiple-imputation estimation procedures that permit valid and efficient inferences. We embed all methodological developments within the framework of conducting a substudy that seeks to examine genetic associations with lung function among continuous smokers in the Lung Health Study (United States and Canada, 1986-1994).

Public Attitudes toward Consent and Data Sharing in Biobank Research: A Large Multi-site Experimental Survey in the US.

Individuals participating in biobanks and other large research projects are increasingly asked to provide broad consent for open-ended research use and widespread sharing of their biosamples and data. We assessed willingness to participate in a biobank using different consent and data sharing models, hypothesizing that willingness would be higher under more restrictive scenarios. Perceived benefits, concerns, and information needs were also assessed. In this experimental survey, individuals from 11 US healthcare systems in the Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) Network were randomly allocated to one of three hypothetical scenarios: tiered consent and controlled data sharing; broad consent and controlled data sharing; or broad consent and open data sharing. Of 82,328 eligible individuals, exactly 13,000 (15.8%) completed the survey. Overall, 66% (95% CI: 63%-69%) of population-weighted respondents stated they would be willing to participate in a biobank; willingness and attitudes did not differ between respondents in the three scenarios. Willingness to participate was associated with self-identified white race, higher educational attainment, lower religiosity, perceiving more research benefits, fewer concerns, and fewer information needs. Most (86%, CI: 84%-87%) participants would want to know what would happen if a researcher misused their health information; fewer (51%, CI: 47%-55%) would worry about their privacy. The concern that the use of broad consent and open data sharing could adversely affect participant recruitment is not supported by these findings. Addressing potential participants' concerns and information needs and building trust and relationships with communities may increase acceptance of broad consent and wide data sharing in biobank research.

The Partnership to Improve Diabetes Education Trial: a Cluster Randomized Trial Addressing Health Communication in Diabetes Care.

BACKGROUND: Effective type 2 diabetes care remains a challenge for patients including those receiving primary care in safety net settings. OBJECTIVE: The Partnership to Improve Diabetes Education (PRIDE) trial team and leaders from a regional department of health evaluated approaches to improve care for vulnerable patients. DESIGN: Cluster randomized controlled trial. PATIENTS: Adults with uncontrolled type 2 diabetes seeking care across 10 unblinded, randomly assigned safety net clinics in Middle TN. INTERVENTIONS: A literacy-sensitive, provider-focused, health communication intervention (PRIDE; 5 clinics) vs. standard diabetes education (5 clinics). MAIN MEASURES: Participant-level primary outcome was glycemic control [A1c] at 12 months. Secondary outcomes included select health behaviors and psychosocial aspects of care at 12 and 24 months. Adjusted mixed effects regression models were used to examine the comparative effectiveness of each approach to care. KEY RESULTS: Of 410 patients enrolled, 364 (89%) were included in analyses. Median age was 51 years; Black and Hispanic patients represented 18% and 25%; 96% were uninsured, and 82% had low annual income level (< $20,000); adequate health literacy was seen in 83%, but numeracy deficits were common. At 12 months, significant within-group treatment effects occurred from baseline for both PRIDE and control sites: adjusted A1c (- 0.76 [95% CI, - 1.08 to - 0.44]; P < .001 vs - 0.54 [95% CI, - 0.86 to - 0.21]; P = .001), odds of poor eating (0.53 [95% CI, 0.33-0.83]; P = .01 vs 0.42 [95% CI, 0.26-0.68]; P < .001), treatment satisfaction (3.93 [95% CI, 2.48-6.21]; P < .001 vs 3.04 [95% CI, 1.93-4.77]; P < .001), and self-efficacy (2.97 [95% CI, 1.89-4.67]; P < .001 vs 1.81 [95% CI, 1.1-2.84]; P = .01). No significant difference was observed between study arms in adjusted analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Both interventions improved the participant's A1c and behavioral outcomes. PRIDE was not more effective than standard education. Further research may elucidate the added value of a focused health communication program in this setting.

Extending the Case-Control Design to Longitudinal Data: Stratified Sampling Based on Repeated Binary Outcomes.

We detail study design options that generalize case-control sampling when longitudinal outcome data are already collected as part of a primary cohort study, but new exposure data must be retrospectively processed for a secondary analysis. Furthermore, we assume that cost will limit the size of the subsample that can be evaluated. We describe a novel class of stratified outcome-dependent sampling designs for longitudinal binary response data where distinct strata are created for subjects who never, sometimes, and always experienced the event of interest during longitudinal follow-up. Individual designs within this class are differentiated by the stratum-specific sampling probabilities. We show for parameters associated with time-varying exposures, subjects who experience the event/outcome at some but not at all of the follow-up times (i.e., those who exhibit response variation) are highly informative. If the time-varying exposure varies exclusively within individuals (i.e., intraclass correlation coefficient is 0), then sampling all subjects with response variability can yield highly precise parameter estimates even when compared with an analysis of the original cohort. The flexibility of the designs and analysis procedures also permits estimation of parameters that correspond to time-fixed covariates, and we show that with an imputation-based estimation procedure, baseline covariate associations can be estimated with very high precision irrespective of the design. We demonstrate features of the designs and analysis procedures via a plasmode simulation using data from the Lung Health Study.

Outcome-related, Auxiliary Variable Sampling Designs for Longitudinal Binary Data.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiologists have long used case-control and related study designs to enhance variability of response and information available to estimate exposure-disease associations. Less has been done for longitudinal data. METHODS: We discuss an epidemiological study design and analysis approach for longitudinal binary response data. We seek to gain statistical efficiency by oversampling relatively informative subjects for inclusion into the sample. In this methodological demonstration, we develop this concept by sampling repeatedly from an existing cohort study to estimate the relationship of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to past-year smoking in a panel of baseline smokers. To account for oversampling, we describe a sequential offsetted regressions approach for valid inferences in this setting. RESULTS: Targeted sampling can lead to increased statistical efficiency when combined with sequential offsetted regressions. Efficiency gains are degraded with increased prevalence of the disease response variable, with decreased association between the sampling variable and the response, and with other design and analysis parameters, providing guidance to those wishing to use these types of designs in the future. CONCLUSIONS: These designs hold promise for efficient use of resources in longitudinal cohort studies.

Likelihood-based analysis of outcome-dependent sampling designs with longitudinal data.

The use of outcome-dependent sampling with longitudinal data analysis has previously been shown to improve efficiency in the estimation of regression parameters. The motivating scenario is when outcome data exist for all cohort members but key exposure variables will be gathered only on a subset. Inference with outcome-dependent sampling designs that also incorporates incomplete information from those individuals who did not have their exposure ascertained has been investigated for univariate but not longitudinal outcomes. Therefore, with a continuous longitudinal outcome, we explore the relative contributions of various sources of information toward the estimation of key regression parameters using a likelihood framework. We evaluate the efficiency gains that alternative estimators might offer over random sampling, and we offer insight into their relative merits in select practical scenarios. Finally, we illustrate the potential impact of design and analysis choices using data from the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry.

Ambient air pollution, lung function, and airway responsiveness in asthmatic children.

BACKGROUND: Although ambient air pollution has been linked to reduced lung function in healthy children, longitudinal analyses of pollution effects in asthmatic patients are lacking. OBJECTIVE: We sought to investigate pollution effects in a longitudinal asthma study and effect modification by controller medications. METHODS: We examined associations of lung function and methacholine responsiveness (PC20) with ozone, carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide concentrations in 1003 asthmatic children participating in a 4-year clinical trial. We further investigated whether budesonide and nedocromil modified pollution effects. Daily pollutant concentrations were linked to ZIP/postal code of residence. Linear mixed models tested associations of within-subject pollutant concentrations with FEV1 and forced vital capacity (FVC) percent predicted, FEV1/FVC ratio, and PC20, adjusting for seasonality and confounders. RESULTS: Same-day and 1-week average CO concentrations were negatively associated with postbronchodilator percent predicted FEV1 (change per interquartile range, -0.33 [95% CI, -0.49 to -0.16] and -0.41 [95% CI, -0.62 to -0.21], respectively) and FVC (-0.19 [95% CI, -0.25 to -0.07] and -0.25 [95% CI, -0.43 to -0.07], respectively). Longer-term 4-month CO averages were negatively associated with prebronchodilator percent predicted FEV1 and FVC (-0.36 [95% CI, -0.62 to -0.10] and -0.21 [95% CI, -0.42 to -0.01], respectively). Four-month averaged CO and ozone concentrations were negatively associated with FEV1/FVC ratio (P < .05). Increased 4-month average nitrogen dioxide concentrations were associated with reduced postbronchodilator FEV1 and FVC percent predicted. Long-term exposures to sulfur dioxide were associated with reduced PC20 (percent change per interquartile range, -6% [95% CI, -11% to -1.5%]). Treatment augmented the negative short-term CO effect on PC20. CONCLUSIONS: Air pollution adversely influences lung function and PC20 in asthmatic children. Treatment with controller medications might not protect but rather worsens the effects of CO on PC20. This clinical trial design evaluates modification of pollution effects by treatment without confounding by indication.

Genetic determinants of variability in warfarin response after the dose-titration phase.

OBJECTIVES: Genetic factors contribute considerably toward variability in warfarin dose requirements and are important in the dose-titration phase; their effects on the stability of anticoagulation later in therapy are not known. METHODS: Using deidentified electronic medical records linked to a DNA-biobank, we studied 140 African-Americans and 943 European-Americans after the warfarin dose-titration phase. We genotyped 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms in genes (CYP2C9, VKORC1, CYP4F2, GGCX, EPHX1, CALU) associated with altered warfarin dose requirements and tested their associations with international normalized ratio variability (INRVAR) and percent time in therapeutic range in European-Americans and African-Americans. RESULTS: One allele copy of rs2108622 in CYP4F2 was associated with a 15% [95% confidence interval (CI): 1-26, P=0.03] decrease in the median INRVAR in European-Americans. In African-Americans, GGCX variants rs11676382 and rs699664 were associated with 4.16-fold (95% CI: 1.45-11.97, P=0.009) and 1.50-fold (95% CI: 1.07-2.08, P=0.02) changes in the median INRVAR per variant allele copy, respectively; rs11676382 was also significantly associated with a 23.19% (95% CI: 5.89-40.48, P=0.01) decrease in time in therapeutic range. The total variation in INRVAR explained by both clinical factors and rs2108622 was 5.2% for European-Americans. In African-Americans, the inclusion of GGCX variants rs11676382 and rs699664, and the CYP2C9*8 variant rs7900194 explained ∼29% of the variation in INRVAR. CONCLUSION: The stability of anticoagulation after the warfarin dose-titration phase is differentially affected by variants in CYP4F2 in European-Americans and GGCX loci in African-Americans.