The twentieth century was the wettest period in northern Pakistan over the past millennium.

Twentieth-century warming could lead to increases in the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere, altering the hydrological cycle and the characteristics of precipitation. Such changes in the global rate and distribution of precipitation may have a greater direct effect on human well-being and ecosystem dynamics than changes in temperature itself. Despite the co-variability of both of these climate variables, attention in long-term climate reconstruction has mainly concentrated on temperature changes. Here we present an annually resolved oxygen isotope record from tree-rings, providing a millennial-scale reconstruction of precipitation variability in the high mountains of northern Pakistan. The climatic signal originates mainly from winter precipitation, and is robust over ecologically different sites. Centennial-scale variations reveal dry conditions at the beginning of the past millennium and through the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, with precipitation increasing during the late nineteenth and the twentieth centuries to yield the wettest conditions of the past 1,000 years. Comparison with other long-term precipitation reconstructions indicates a large-scale intensification of the hydrological cycle coincident with the onset of industrialization and global warming, and the unprecedented amplitude argues for a human role.

Characteristics of radial growth and stable isotopes in a single oak tree to be used in climate studies.

In this study we have analyzed the variability of tree-ring widths and stable isotopes (delta(13)C and delta(18)O) of a single sessile oak tree (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.) since these parameters are critical in reconstructing the environment, particularly climatic conditions. Tree rings were separated into early- and latewood (EW(t); LW(t)), tree ring (TR(t)), and transfer tree ring (TTR(t), the latter being the latewood plus the earlywood of the subsequent year. Mean sensitivity, simple correlation, partial correlation and autocorrelation analyses were applied to describe data and relationships. Although this research focused on a single tree, the results compared well with average site data. Widths and delta(18)O values showed generally low autocorrelation for all tree-ring components, whereas delta(13)C revealed highly significant autocorrelations for most tree-ring components. Mean sensitivity of the standardized values turned out to be high for delta(18)O, marginally lower for width and the lowest for delta(13)C. Correlation analyses have proven that the relationships within the tree-ring widths or within the isotope parameters are much stronger than across widths and isotope parameters. The study demonstrates the unique potential of all measured tree-ring data to be used as climate proxies.

Pooled versus separate measurements of tree-ring stable isotopes.

δ(13)C and δ(18)O of tree rings contain time integrated information about the environmental conditions weighted by seasonal growth dynamics and are well established as sources of palaeoclimatic and ecophysiological data. Annually resolved isotope chronologies are frequently produced by pooling dated growth rings from several trees prior to the isotopic analyses. This procedure has the advantage of saving time and resources, but precludes from defining the isotopic error or statistical uncertainty related to the inter-tree variability. Up to now only a few studies have compared isotope series from pooled tree rings with isotopic measurements from individual trees. We tested whether or not the δ(13)C and the δ(18)O chronologies derived from pooled and from individual tree rings display significant differences at two locations from the Iberian Peninsula to assess advantages and constraints of both methodologies. The comparisons along the period 1900-2003 reveal a good agreement between pooled chronologies and the two mean master series which were created by averaging raw individual values (Mean) or by generating a mass calibrated mean (MassC). In most of the cases, pooled chronologies show high synchronicity with averaged individual samples at interannual scale but some differences also show up especially when comparing δ(18)O decadal to multi-decadal variations. Moreover, differences in the first order autocorrelation among individuals may be obscured by pooling strategies. The lack of replication of pooled chronologies prevents detection of a bias due to a higher mass contribution of one sample but uncertainties associated with the analytical process itself, as sample inhomogeneity, seems to account for the observed differences.

Wood cellulose preparation methods and mass spectrometric analyses of delta13C, delta18O, and nonexchangeable delta2H values in cellulose, sugar, and starch: an interlaboratory comparison.

Interlaboratory comparisons involving nine European stable isotope laboratories have shown that the routine methods of cellulose preparation resulted in data that generally agreed within the precision of the isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) method used: +/-0.2 per thousand for carbon and +/-0.3 per thousand for oxygen. For carbon, the results suggest that holocellulose is enriched up to 0.39 per thousand in 13C relative to the purified alpha-cellulose. The comparisons of IRMS measurements of carbon on cellulose, sugars, and starches showed low deviations from -0.23 to +0.23 per thousand between laboratories. For oxygen, IRMS measurements varied between means from -0.39 to 0.58 per thousand, -0.89 to 0.42 per thousand, and -1.30 to 1.16 per thousand for celluloses, sugars, and starches, respectively. This can be explained by different effects arising from the use of low- or high-temperature pyrolysis and by the variation between laboratories in the procedures used for drying and storage of samples. The results of analyses of nonexchangeable hydrogen are very similar in means with standard deviations between individual methods from +/-2.7 to +/-4.9 per thousand. The use of a one-point calibration (IAEA-CH7) gave significant positive offsets in delta2H values up to 6 per thousand. Detailed analysis of the results allows us to make the following recommendations in order to increase quality and compatibility of the common data bank: (1) removal of a pretreatment with organic solvents, (2) a purification step with 17% sodium hydroxide solution during cellulose preparation procedure, (3) measurements of oxygen isotopes under an argon hood, (4) use of calibration standard materials, which are of similar nature to that of the measured samples, and (5) using a two-point calibration method for reliable result calculation.