A joint model for the estimation of species distributions and environmental characteristics from point-referenced data.

BACKGROUND: Predicting and explaining species occurrence using environmental characteristics is essential for nature conservation and management. Species distribution models consider species occurrence as the dependent variable and environmental conditions as the independent variables. Suitable conditions are estimated based on a sample of species observations, where one assumes that the underlying environmental conditions are known. This is not always the case, as environmental variables at broad spatial scales are regularly extrapolated from point-referenced data. However, treating the predicted environmental conditions as accurate surveys of independent variables at a specific point does not take into account their uncertainty. METHODS: We present a joint hierarchical Bayesian model where models for the environmental variables, rather than a set of predicted values, are input to the species distribution model. All models are fitted together based only on point-referenced observations, which results in a correct propagation of uncertainty. We use 50 plant species representative of the Dutch flora in natural areas with 8 soil condition predictors taken during field visits in the Netherlands as a case study. We compare the proposed model to the standard approach by studying the difference in associations, predicted maps, and cross-validated accuracy. FINDINGS: We find that there are differences between the two approaches in the estimated association between soil conditions and species occurrence (correlation 0.64-0.84), but the predicted maps are quite similar (correlation 0.82-1.00). The differences are more pronounced in the rarer species. The cross-validated accuracy is substantially better for 5 species out of the 50, and the species can also help to predict the soil characteristics. The estimated associations tend to have a smaller magnitude with more certainty. CONCLUSION: These findings suggests that the standard model is often sufficient for prediction, but effort should be taken to develop models which take the uncertainty in the independent variables into account for interpretation.

Carbon recycling efficiency and phosphate turnover by marine nitrifying archaea.

Thaumarchaeotal nitrifiers are among the most abundant organisms in the ocean, but still unknown is the carbon (C) yield from nitrification and the coupling of these fluxes to phosphorus (P) turnover and release of metabolites from the cell. Using a dual radiotracer approach, we found that Nitrosopumilus maritimus fixed roughly 0.3 mol C, assimilated 2 mmol P, and released ca. 10-2 mol C and 10-5 mol P as dissolved organics (DOC and DOP) per mole ammonia respired. Phosphate turnover may influence assimilation fluxes by nitrifiers in the euphotic zone, which parallel those of the dark ocean. Collectively, marine nitrifiers assimilate up to 2 Pg C year-1 and 0.05 Pg P year-1 and thereby recycle roughly 5% of mineralized C and P into marine biomass. Release of roughly 50 Tg DOC and 0.2 Tg DOP by thaumarchaea each year represents a small but fresh input of reduced substrates throughout the ocean.

Phosphate availability affects fixed nitrogen transfer from diazotrophs to their epibionts.

Dinitrogen (N2) fixation is a major source of external nitrogen (N) to aquatic ecosystems and therefore exerts control over productivity. Studies have shown that N2 -fixers release freshly fixed N into the environment, but the causes for this N release are largely unclear. Here, we show that the availability of phosphate can directly affect the transfer of freshly fixed N to epibionts in filamentous, diazotrophic cyanobacteria. Stable-isotope incubations coupled to single-cell analyses showed that <1% and ~15% of freshly fixed N was transferred to epibionts of Aphanizomenon and Nodularia, respectively, at phosphate scarcity during a summer bloom in the Baltic Sea. When phosphate was added, the transfer of freshly fixed N to epibionts dropped to about half for Nodularia, whereas the release from Aphanizomenon increased slightly. At the same time, the growth rate of Nodularia roughly doubled, indicating that less freshly fixed N was released and was used for biomass production instead. Phosphate scarcity and the resulting release of freshly fixed N could explain the heavy colonization of Nodularia filaments by microorganisms during summer blooms. As such, the availability of phosphate may directly affect the partitioning of fixed N2 in colonies of diazotrophic cyanobacteria and may impact the interactions with their microbiome.

Single-cell imaging of phosphorus uptake shows that key harmful algae rely on different phosphorus sources for growth.

Single-cell measurements of biochemical processes have advanced our understanding of cellular physiology in individual microbes and microbial populations. Due to methodological limitations, little is known about single-cell phosphorus (P) uptake and its importance for microbial growth within mixed field populations. Here, we developed a nanometer-scale secondary ion mass spectrometry (nanoSIMS)-based approach to quantify single-cell P uptake in combination with cellular CO2 and N2 fixation. Applying this approach during a harmful algal bloom (HAB), we found that the toxin-producer Nodularia almost exclusively used phosphate for growth at very low phosphate concentrations in the Baltic Sea. In contrast, the non-toxic Aphanizomenon acquired only 15% of its cellular P-demand from phosphate and ~85% from organic P. When phosphate concentrations were raised, Nodularia thrived indicating that this toxin-producer directly benefits from phosphate inputs. The phosphate availability in the Baltic Sea is projected to rise and therefore might foster more frequent and intense Nodularia blooms with a concomitant rise in the overall toxicity of HABs in the Baltic Sea. With a projected increase in HABs worldwide, the capability to use organic P may be a critical factor that not only determines the microbial community structure, but the overall harmfulness and associated costs of algal blooms.

Oxygen minimum zone cryptic sulfur cycling sustained by offshore transport of key sulfur oxidizing bacteria.

Members of the gammaproteobacterial clade SUP05 couple water column sulfide oxidation to nitrate reduction in sulfidic oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). Their abundance in offshore OMZ waters devoid of detectable sulfide has led to the suggestion that local sulfate reduction fuels SUP05-mediated sulfide oxidation in a so-called "cryptic sulfur cycle". We examined the distribution and metabolic capacity of SUP05 in Peru Upwelling waters, using a combination of oceanographic, molecular, biogeochemical and single-cell techniques. A single SUP05 species, U Thioglobus perditus, was found to be abundant and active in both sulfidic shelf and sulfide-free offshore OMZ waters. Our combined data indicated that mesoscale eddy-driven transport led to the dispersal of U T. perditus and elemental sulfur from the sulfidic shelf waters into the offshore OMZ region. This offshore transport of shelf waters provides an alternative explanation for the abundance and activity of sulfide-oxidizing denitrifying bacteria in sulfide-poor offshore OMZ waters.