Bayesian spatial modelling of childhood cancer incidence in Switzerland using exact point data: a nationwide study during 1985-2015.

BACKGROUND: The aetiology of most childhood cancers is largely unknown. Spatially varying environmental factors such as traffic-related air pollution, background radiation and agricultural pesticides might contribute to the development of childhood cancer. This study is the first investigation of the spatial disease mapping of childhood cancers using exact geocodes of place of residence. METHODS: We included 5947 children diagnosed with cancer in Switzerland during 1985-2015 at 0-15 years of age from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. We modelled cancer risk using log-Gaussian Cox processes and indirect standardisation to adjust for age and year of diagnosis. We examined whether the spatial variation of risk can be explained by modelled ambient air concentration of NO2, modelled exposure to background ionising radiation, area-based socio-economic position (SEP), linguistic region, duration in years of general cancer registration in the canton or degree of urbanisation. RESULTS: For all childhood cancers combined, the posterior median relative risk (RR), compared to the national level, varied by location from 0.83 to 1.13 (min to max). Corresponding ranges were 0.96 to 1.09 for leukaemia, 0.90 to 1.13 for lymphoma, and 0.82 to 1.23 for central nervous system (CNS) tumours. The covariates considered explained 72% of the observed spatial variation for all cancers, 81% for leukaemia, 82% for lymphoma and 64% for CNS tumours. There was weak evidence of an association of CNS tumour incidence with modelled exposure to background ionising radiation (RR per SD difference 1.17; 0.98-1.40) and with SEP (1.6; 1.00-1.13). CONCLUSION: Of the investigated diagnostic groups, childhood CNS tumours showed the largest spatial variation. The selected covariates only partially explained the observed variation of CNS tumours suggesting that other environmental factors also play a role.

Discrete versus continuous domain models for disease mapping.

The main goal of disease mapping is to estimate disease risk and identify high-risk areas. Such analyses are hampered by the limited geographical resolution of the available data. Typically the available data are counts per spatial unit and the common approach is the Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) model. When precise geocodes are available, it is more natural to use Log-Gaussian Cox processes (LGCPs). In a simulation study mimicking childhood leukaemia incidence using actual residential locations of all children in the canton of Zürich, Switzerland, we compare the ability of these models to recover risk surfaces and identify high-risk areas. We then apply both approaches to actual data on childhood leukaemia incidence in the canton of Zürich during 1985-2015. We found that LGCPs outperform BYM models in almost all scenarios considered. Our findings suggest that there are important gains to be made from the use of LGCPs in spatial epidemiology.

The Shortlist Method for fast computation of the Earth Mover's Distance and finding optimal solutions to transportation problems.

Finding solutions to the classical transportation problem is of great importance, since this optimization problem arises in many engineering and computer science applications. Especially the Earth Mover's Distance is used in a plethora of applications ranging from content-based image retrieval, shape matching, fingerprint recognition, object tracking and phishing web page detection to computing color differences in linguistics and biology. Our starting point is the well-known revised simplex algorithm, which iteratively improves a feasible solution to optimality. The Shortlist Method that we propose substantially reduces the number of candidates inspected for improving the solution, while at the same time balancing the number of pivots required. Tests on simulated benchmarks demonstrate a considerable reduction in computation time for the new method as compared to the usual revised simplex algorithm implemented with state-of-the-art initialization and pivot strategies. As a consequence, the Shortlist Method facilitates the computation of large scale transportation problems in viable time. In addition we describe a novel method for finding an initial feasible solution which we coin Modified Russell's Method.