Bank funding and the recent political development in Italy: What about redenomination risk?

The political situation in Italy had and still has implications for sovereign credit and redenomination risk. The current political environment is discussed from an economic and legal perspective focusing strongly on the funding situation of Italian banks. Some empirical evidence is reported. The findings depicted here are compatible with the point of view that the political development in Rome has affected the relationship between bank funding costs in Germany and Italy. In fact, there is clear evidence for the relevance of nonlinearities. Given the time period examined, changes to redenomination risk due to fears about Italy leaving the Euro could be one crucial explanation for the findings reported here.

Dividend policy issues in the European pharmaceutical industry: new empirical evidence.

This paper examines dividend policy issues in the European pharmaceutical industry. This sector is of particular interest because of the high research and development expenditures and the associated risks characterizing the business models of many firms in this industry. In fact, from the perspective of corporate finance theory, this is a particular challenge for the managers of these corporations that may also have implications for the dividend policy implemented by the firms forming this sector. Moreover, the level of internal financing and litigation risks also seem to be high in the pharmaceutical industry. These facts could also affect the payout policy of the firms. Employing techniques of time series analysis, there is no evidence for dividend signaling and clear evidence for dividend smoothing in the European pharmaceutical industry. Given that dividend increases under certain assumptions can negatively affect the firms' ability to finance new investments in general and research and development projects in particular, these results of our empirical investigations could be described as highly plausible.

Effects of Ginkgo biloba in dementia: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The benefit of Ginkgo biloba has been discussed controversially. The aim of this review was to assess the effects of Ginkgo biloba in Alzheimer's disease as well as vascular and mixed dementia covering a variety of outcome domains. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane databases, CINAHL and PsycINFO for controlled trials of ginkgo for Alzheimer's, vascular or mixed dementia. Studies had to be of a minimum of 12 weeks duration with at least ten participants per group. Clinical characteristics and outcomes were extracted. Meta-analysis results were expressed as risk ratios or standardized mean differences (SMD) in scores. RESULTS: Nine trials using the standardized extract EGb761(R) met our inclusion criteria. Trials were of 12 to 52 weeks duration and included 2372 patients in total. In the meta-analysis, the SMDs in change scores for cognition were in favor of ginkgo compared to placebo (-0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] -1.14; -0.01, p = 0.04), but did not show a statistically significant difference from placebo for activities in daily living (ADLs) (SMD = -0.32, 95% CI -0.66; 0.03, p = 0.08). Heterogeneity among studies was high. For the Alzheimer subgroup, the SMDs for ADLs and cognition outcomes were larger than for the whole group of dementias with statistical superiority for ginkgo also for ADL outcomes (SMD = -0.44, 95% CI -0.77; -0.12, p = 0.008). Drop-out rates and side effects did not differ between ginkgo and placebo. No consistent results were available for quality of life and neuropsychiatric symptoms, possibly due to the heterogeneity of the study populations. CONCLUSIONS: Ginkgo biloba appears more effective than placebo. Effect sizes were moderate, while clinical relevance is, similar to other dementia drugs, difficult to determine.

Stereotactic radiosurgery for the treatment of brain metastases.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this systematic review was to summarise the current evidence concerning radiosurgical treatment (SRS) of newly diagnosed brain metastasis and to compare SRS as a single or additional treatment to treatment alternatives with regard to medical effectiveness and safety. METHODS: A structured search of electronic databases was performed to identify relevant publications from 2002 through 2007. Studies targeting patients with brain metastases were included. Standardised quality assessment and data extraction were performed. RESULTS: Of 1496 publications, 16 studies were included. The mean survival in most studies was less than 12 months. There was evidence that SRS plus WBRT was associated with improved local tumour control and neurological functioning compared to either treatment alone. Only in patients with single metastasis, this resulted in improved survival. There was inconclusive evidence when comparing SRS to WBRT, Neurosurgery (NS) or Hypofractionated Radiotherapy (HCSRT). The Quality of life (Qol) was not investigated. CONCLUSION: SRS plus WBRT was associated with improved local tumour control and neurological functioning compared to either treatment alone. Only in certain patients, this resulted in improved survival. Methodologically rigorous studies are therefore warranted to investigate further treatment options, and in view of the poor prognosis, to investigate Qol and neurological functioning.

Why is it so difficult to evaluate nursing interventions in dementia?

Two recent health technology assessment (HTA) reports published in Germany focused on non-pharmacological interventions for patients with dementia. One of the major results was the poor methodological quality of the studies in this field. This paper concisely presents the main quantitative and qualitative findings of the HTA report published by the German Agency for HTA at the Institute of Medical Information and Documentation (dahta@DIMDI), followed by a detailed discussion of the major methodological problems observed for the inclusion criteria, interventions, the setting, number of patients included, duration of observation, comparators, clinical endpoints, health economics, and, most obvious, the impossibility of blinding and eliminating placebo effects for future clinical studies. We conclude with several suggestions addressing these challenges for future research in this field.

Concepts of care for people with dementia.

INTRODUCTION: Today there are approximately one million people with dementia in Germany. If current demographic trends continue, this number is likely to rise substantially in the coming years. In the older population, dementia is the most frequent reason for long-term care. Because most forms of dementia cannot be cured, the aim of treatment is to delay disease progression and to maintain functioning and quality of life. RESEARCH QUESTIONS: What is the evidence on different approaches to the long-term usual care of patients with dementia in terms of common endpoints such as quality of life, and social behaviour? How is the cost-effectiveness of these concepts to be evaluated? Which ethical, social, or legal issues are discussed in this context? METHODS: Based on a systematic literature review, we include randomized, controlled studies that had at least 30 participants and investigated one or more of the following approaches of dementia care: validation therapy/emotion-oriented usual care, ergotherapy, sensory stimulation, relaxation techniques, reality orientation therapy, and reminiscence therapy. Studies had to be published after 1996 (after 1990 for the economic part) in English or German. RESULTS: A total of 20 studies meet the inclusion criteria. Of these, three focus on validation therapy/emotion-oriented usual care, five on ergotherapy, seven on different kinds of sensory stimulation, two on reality orientation, two on reminiscence therapy, and one on a type of relaxation technique. There are no significant differences between the intervention and control groups in two of the three studies on validation therapy or emotion-oriented usual care, in two of the five studies on ergotherapy, in three of the seven studies on sensory stimulation, in both of the two studies on reminiscence therapy, and in the one study on relaxation. In the remaining ten studies, seven report some positive results in favour of the respective interventions, and three studies (ergotherapy, aroma therapy, and music/massage) report positive effects with respect to all of the endpoints measured. Six publications present economic results for usual-care-concepts. One study reports additional costs of 16 GBP (24.03 Euro (2006)) per patient per week for occupational therapie. Two publications declare incremental cost of 24.30 USD (25.62 Euro (2006)) per mini-mental-state-examination-(MMSE)-point gained per month respectively 1,380,000 ITL (506.21 Euro (2006)) per MMSE-point gained. Two publications focus on mixed interventions. One study reports the additional costs of an activity program (1.13 USD (1.39 Euro (2006)) per day per patient) and the other additional time for the usual care for mobile demented patients (average of 45 minutes per day per patient). WITH RESPECT TO ETHICAL AND SOCIAL ASPECTS THE DISCUSSION FOCUSSES ON THE PROBLEM OF AUTONOMY: dementia does not necessarily mean inability to decide over the participtation in studies. Legal questions address the financial situation of patients, the organisation of their care and the legal representation of dementia patients. DISCUSSION: Only a few studies on the nursing interventions considered in this report are methodologically robust. Most of the studies have a small number of participants and show substantial differences in terms of their inclusion criteria, implementation, and endpoints. THIS HETEROGENEITY IS REFLECTED IN THE RESULTS: in half of the studies, the interventions have no positive effects compared to the control group. The other half of the studies reports some positive effects with regard to specific endpoints. All of the economic studies are, from a methodologial and a thematic standpoint, not suitable to answer the questions raised. Ethical, social and legal aspects are discussed but not systematically analysed. CONCLUSION: The studies conducted to date do not provide sufficient evidence of neither efficacy nor cost-effectiveness for any of the nursing interventions considered in the present HTA. However, lack of evidence does not mean lack of efficacy. Instead, more methodologically sound studies are needed. Particullary desireable are studies reflecting the framework of dementia care in Germany. This holds also for the healtheconomic evaluations of the chosen interventions.

Medical and health economic assessment of radiosurgery for the treatment of brain metastasis.

BACKGROUND: Radiotherapy for patients suffering from malignant neoplasms has developed greatly during the past decades. Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) is one important radiotherapeutic option which is defined by a single and highly focussed application of radiation during a specified time interval. One of its important indications is the treatment of brain metastases. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this HTA is to summarise the current literature concerning the treatment of brain metastasis and to compare SRS as a single or additional treatment option to alternative treatment options with regard to their medical effectiveness/efficacy, safety and cost-effectiveness as well as their ethical, social and legal implications. METHODS: A structured search and hand search of identified literature are performed from January 2002 through August 2007 to identify relevant publications published in English or German. Studies targeting patients with single or multiple brain metastases are included. The methodological quality of included studies is assessed according to quality criteria, based on the criteria of evidence based medicine. RESULTS: Of 1,495 publications 15 medical studies meet the inclusion criteria. Overall study quality is limited and with the exception of two randomized controlleed trials (RCT) and two meta-analyses only historical cohort studies are identified. Reported outcome measures are highly variable between studies. Studies with high methodological quality provide evidence, that whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT) in addition to SRS and SRS in addition to WBRT is associated with improved local tumour control rates and neurological function. However, only in patients with single brain metastasis, RPA-class 1 (RPA = Recursive partitioning analysis) and certain primary tumour entities, this combination of SRS and WBRT is associated with superior survival compared to WBRT alone. Studies report no significant differences in adverse events between treatment groups. Methodologically less rigorous studies provide no conclusive evidence with regard to medical effectiveness and safety, comparing SRS to WBRT, neurosurgery (NS) or hypofractionated radiotherapy (HCSRT). The quality of life is not investigated in any of the studies. Within the searched databases a total of 320 economic publications are identified. Five publications are eligible for this report. The five reports have a quiet variable quality. Concerning the economic efficiency of alternative equipment, while assuming equal effectiveness, the calculations show, that economic efficiency depends to a large extend on the number of patients treated. In case the two alternative equipments are used solely for SRS, the Gamma Knife might be more cost-efficient. Otherwise an adapted linear accelerator is most likely to be beneficial because of its flexibility. One Health Technology Assessment (HTA) states, that the cost for a Gamma Knife and a dedicated linear accelerator are comparable, while an adapted version is cheaper. No reports concerning ethical, legal and social aspects are identified. DISCUSSION: Overall, quantity and quality of identified studies is limited. However, the identified studies indicate that the prognosis of patients with brain metastases is despite highly developed and modern treatment regimes still limited. Conclusive evidence with regard to the effectiveness of identified interventions is only available for the combined treatment of SRS and WBRT compared to SRS or WBRT alone. Furthermore, there is insufficient evidence to compare SRS with WBRT, NS or HCSRT. The efficiency of the different equipments depends to a great extent on the number and the indications of the patients treated. If dedicated systems are used to their full capacity, there is some evidence for superior cost-effectiveness. If more treatment flexibility is required, adapted systems seem to be advantageous. However, equal treatment effectiveness is a necessary assumption for these conclusions. The need for a treatment precision can influence the purchase decision. No reports concerning more recent therapeutic alternatives are currently available. CONCLUSION: Combination of SRS and WBRT is associated with improved local tumour control and neurological function compared to SRS or WBRT alone. However, only for patients with single metastasis there is strong evidence that this results in improved survival compared to WBRT alone. Methodologically rigorous studies are warranted to investigate SRS compared to WBRT and NS and to investigate the quality of life in patients undergoing these treatment regimes. Concerning the type of equipment used, economic efficiency depends to a great extend on the capacity at which the system can be used. Dedicated systems might be favourable for a high number of patients, while lower patient counts probably favour adapted systems with their superior treatment flexibility. Using the equipment at its full capacity may result in a limited number of machines, what in turn may give rise to the question of an equal and easy access to this technology. Studies focusing on the comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different treatment options and their combinations, especially for the German setting, are warranted.

Behavioural and skill-based early interventions in children with autism spectrum disorders.

INTRODUCTION: Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) comprise typical or infantile autism (Kanner syndrome), Asperger's disorder and atypical autism or pervasive developmental disorder - not otherwise specified. The syndrome is characterized by deficits in (1) verbal and nonverbal communication, (2) reciprocal social interaction and (3) repetitive patterns of behaviour, interests and activities. Early behavioural interventions are based on learning theory and behaviour therapy. They take into account specific deficits in perception, emotional reactions, social interaction and communication. In Germany, these comprehensive models are not widely evaluated and implemented. RESEARCH QUESTIONS: What are the clinical effectiveness and safety of early behavioural or skills-based early interventions in autism compared to other interventions or to treatment as usual?What are specific factors responsible for the effectiveness?What are the cost-effectiveness and cost consequences of different early interventions in autism?Which legal, social and ethical aspects are relevant with regard to the implementation of the respective interventions in persons with autism? METHODS: Following a systematic review of the literature, controlled studies on early behavioural or skills-based interventions published since 2000 in English or German with children until the age of twelve are included and critically appraised. Studies must have at least ten participants per intervention group. RESULTS: In total, 15 publications based on 14 studies, eight systematic reviews and one health economic study are included. Most studies evaluate early interventions based upon the Lovaas model (Early intensive behavioural treatment (EIBT), Applied behavioural analysis (ABA)). Other evaluate pragmatic interventions or interventions based on other theoretical models like specific parent interventions, responsive education and prelinguistic milieu teaching, joint attention, symbolic play, and picture exchange communication system. Behaviour analytic interventions referring to the Lovaas model remain the most empirically evaluated early interventions in autism. Preschool children with autism can achieve improvements in cognitive and functional domains when treated within behavioural interventions with a frequency of at least 20 hours per week. It is not clear which is the minimum duration of effective interventions, and which active components are necessary for the effectiveness. There was no high quality evidence for other comprehensive early interventions. The identified health economic study is not suitable to evaluate the cost-effectiveness or cost consequences of early interventions. No publications concerning legal, ethical or social aspects were identified. The financial situation of persons with autisms and their families will be improved through the implementation of the "Pflege-Weiterententwicklungsgesetz" (Pf-WG). Further questions concern the organisation of care and the legal representation of autistic patients. Ethical questions arise mainly in the context of the equal supply of care to each individual patient in all regions of the country and the situation of the caregivers. DISCUSSION: There are only a few studies with high methodology evaluating early interventions in children with autism. Most studies have a short duration with a lack of blinded outcome assessment in many cases. The lack of high quality comparative studies does not allow answering questions of comparative effectiveness of early interventions in autism. It can be concluded that interventions referring to the Lovaas model seem to have the highest effectiveness. This seems to be especially true when they are run clinic-based. However, there was no solid evidence with regard to factors responsible for the effectiveness of programms according to the ABA model. With regard to communication improvement, a systematic parent training seems to be superior to treatment as usual where a mixture of therapeutic elements is used. As well for clinical and health economic studies there is a substantial problem of generalisability into the German context. The identified health economic study is not suitable to evaluate the cost-effectiveness or cost consequences of early interventions. CONCLUSION: Based on the available studies, there is no sufficient evidence for any of the evaluated behavioural early intervention programmes. Studies suggest that preschool children with autism in behavioural intervention programmes with a frequency of at least 20 hours per week can achieve improvements in cognitive and functional domains. There is no evidence that in a substantial portion of the children a normal development can be achieved by early interventions. Most research evidence is available for ABA. A minimal necessary intensity of interventions to achieve positive outcomes cannot be derived from literature. There are no valid statements possible as to cost-effectiveness or consequences of these interventions. Effective early interventions may reduce total autism costs in the long run. This may be achieved when the initial high treatment expenditures are more than compensated later if persons with this disorder have better social functioning.