'It's tough. It is hard': A qualitative interview study of staff and volunteers caring for hospice in-patients with delirium.

BACKGROUND: Delirium is a distressing condition often experienced by hospice in-patients. Increased understanding of current multidisciplinary care of delirium is needed to develop interventions in this setting. AIM(S): To explore hospice staff and volunteers' practice, its influences and what may need to change to improve hospice delirium care. DESIGN: Qualitative interview study using behaviour change theory from a critical realist stance. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Thirty-seven staff, including different professional groups and roles, and volunteers were purposively sampled from two in-patient hospices. RESULTS: We found that participants' practice focus was on managing hyperactive symptoms of delirium, through medication use and non-pharmacological strategies. Delirium prevention, early recognition and hypoactive delirium received less attention. Our theoretically-informed analysis identified this focus was influenced by staff and volunteers' emotional responses to the distress associated with hyperactive symptoms of delirium as well as understanding of delirium prevention, recognition and care, which varied between staff groups. Non-pharmacological delirium management was supported by adequate staffing levels, supportive team working and a culture of person-centred and family-centred care, although behaviours that disrupted the calm hospice environment challenged this. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings can inform hospice-tailored behaviour change interventions that develop a shared team understanding and engage staff's emotional responses to improve delirium care. Reflective learning opportunities are needed that increase understanding of the potential to reduce patient distress through prevention and early recognition of delirium, as well as person-centred management. Organisational support for adequate, flexible staffing levels and supportive team working is required to support person-centred delirium care.

Risk factors for delirium in adult patients receiving specialist palliative care: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Delirium is common and distressing for patients receiving palliative care. Interventions targetting modifiable risk factors in other settings have been shown to prevent delirium. Research on delirium risk factors in palliative care can inform context-specific risk-reduction interventions. AIM: To investigate risk factors for the development of delirium in adult patients receiving specialist palliative care. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO CRD42019157168). DATA SOURCES: CINAHL, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Embase, MEDLINE and PsycINFO (1980-2021) were searched for studies reporting the association of risk factors with delirium incidence/prevalence for patients receiving specialist palliative care. Study risk of bias and certainty of evidence for each risk factor were assessed. RESULTS: Of 28 included studies, 16 conducted only univariate analysis, 12 conducted multivariate analysis. The evidence for delirium risk factors was limited with low to very low certainty. POTENTIALLY MODIFIABLE RISK FACTORS: Opioids and lower performance status were positively associated with delirium, with some evidence also for dehydration, hypoxaemia, sleep disturbance, liver dysfunction and infection. Mixed, or very limited, evidence was found for some factors targetted in multicomponent prevention interventions: sensory impairments, mobility, catheter use, polypharmacy (single study), pain, constipation, nutrition (mixed evidence). NON-MODIFIABLE RISK FACTORS: Older age, male sex, primary brain cancer or brain metastases and lung cancer were positively associated with delirium. CONCLUSIONS: Findings may usefully inform interventions to reduce delirium risk but more high quality prospective cohort studies are required to enable greater certainty about associations of different risk factors with delirium during specialist palliative care.

Performance of the Hull Salford Cambridge Decision Rule (HSC DR) for early discharge of patients with findings on CT scan of the brain: a CENTER-TBI validation study.

BACKGROUND: There is international variation in hospital admission practices for patients with mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) and injuries on CT scan. Only a small proportion of patients require neurosurgical intervention, while many guidelines recommend routine admission of all patients. We aim to validate the Hull Salford Cambridge Decision Rule (HSC DR) and the Brain Injury Guidelines (BIG) criteria to select low-risk patients for discharge from the emergency department. METHOD: A cohort from 18 countries of Glasgow Coma Scale 13-15 patients with injuries on CT imaging was identified from the multicentre Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in TBI (CENTER-TBI) Study (conducted from 2014 to 2017) for secondary analysis. A composite outcome measure encompassing need for ongoing hospital admission was used, including seizure activity, death, intubation, neurosurgical intervention and neurological deterioration. We assessed the performance of our previously derived prognostic model, the HSC DR and the BIG criteria at predicting deterioration in this validation cohort. RESULTS: Among 1047 patients meeting the inclusion criteria, 267 (26%) deteriorated. Our prognostic model achieved a C-statistic of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.78 to 0.84). The HSC DR achieved a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 97% to 100%) and specificity of only 4.7% (95% CI: 3.3% to 6.5%) for deterioration. Using the BIG criteria for discharge from the ED achieved a higher specificity (13.3%, 95% CI: 10.9% to 16.1%) and lower sensitivity (94.6%, 95% CI: 90.5% to 97%), with 12/105 patients recommended for discharge subsequently deteriorating, compared with 0/34 with the HSC DR. CONCLUSION: Our decision rule would have allowed 3.5% of patients to be discharged, none of whom would have deteriorated. Use of the BIG criteria may select patients for discharge who have too high a risk of subsequent deterioration to be used clinically. Further validation and implementation studies are required to support use in clinical practice.

The experience of delirium in palliative care settings for patients, family, clinicians and volunteers: A qualitative systematic review and thematic synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Delirium is common in palliative care settings and is distressing for patients, their families and clinicians. To develop effective interventions, we need first to understand current delirium care in this setting. AIM: To understand patient, family, clinicians' and volunteers' experience of delirium and its care in palliative care contexts. DESIGN: Qualitative systematic review and thematic synthesis (PROSPERO 2018 CRD42018102417). DATA SOURCES: The following databases were searched: CINAHL, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Embase, MEDLINE and PsycINFO (2000-2020) for qualitative studies exploring experiences of delirium or its care in specialist palliative care services. Study selection and quality appraisal were independently conducted by two reviewers. RESULTS: A total of 21 papers describing 16 studies were included. In quality appraisal, trustworthiness (rigour of methods used) was assessed as high (n = 5), medium (n = 8) or low (n = 3). Three major themes were identified: interpretations of delirium and their influence on care; clinicians' responses to the suffering of patients with delirium and the roles of the family in delirium care. Nursing staff and other clinicians had limited understanding of delirium as a medical condition with potentially modifiable causes. Practice focused on alleviating patient suffering through person-centred approaches, which could be challenging with delirious patients, and medication use. Treatment decisions were also influenced by the distress of family and clinicians and resource limitations. Family played vital roles in delirium care. CONCLUSIONS: Increased understanding of non-pharmacological approaches to delirium prevention and management, as well as support for clinicians and families, are important to enable patients' multi-dimensional needs to be met.

Understanding COVID-19 misinformation and vaccine hesitancy in context: Findings from a qualitative study involving citizens in Bradford, UK.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccines can offer a route out of the pandemic, yet initial research suggests that many are unwilling to be vaccinated. A rise in the spread of misinformation is thought to have played a significant role in vaccine hesitancy. To maximize uptake, it is important to understand why misinformation has been able to take hold at this time and why it may pose a more significant problem within certain contexts. OBJECTIVE: To understand people's COVID-19 beliefs, their interactions with (mis)information during COVID-19 and attitudes towards a COVID-19 vaccine. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Bradford, UK, was chosen as the study site to provide evidence to local decision makers. In-depth phone interviews were carried out with 20 people from different ethnic groups and areas of Bradford during Autumn 2020. Reflexive thematic analysis was conducted. RESULTS: Participants discussed a wide range of COVID-19 misinformation they had encountered, resulting in confusion, distress and mistrust. Vaccine hesitancy could be attributed to three prominent factors: safety concerns, negative stories and personal knowledge. The more confused, distressed and mistrusting participants felt about their social worlds during the pandemic, the less positive they were about a vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy needs to be understood in the context of the relationship between the spread of misinformation and associated emotional reactions. Vaccine programmes should provide a focused, localized and empathetic response to counter misinformation. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: A rapid community and stakeholder engagement process was undertaken to identify COVID-19 priority topics important to Bradford citizens and decision makers.

An evaluation of the influence of the publication of the UK National Institute for health and Care Excellence's guidance on hypertension in pregnancy: a retrospective analysis of clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: The UK National Institute for health and Care Excellence (NICE) publish guidance aimed at standardising practice. Evidence regarding how well recommendations are implemented and what clinicians think about guidance is limited. We aimed to establish the extent to which the NICE Hypertension in pregnancy (HIP) guidance has influenced care and assess clinician's attitudes to this guidance. METHODS: Five maternity units in the Midlands and North of England took part in the retrospective evaluation of 2490 birth records from randomly selected dates in 2008-2010 and 2013-2015. The proportion of women where care was adhered to before (2008-2010) and after (2013-2015) guidance publication was examined and differences estimated. Eleven midwives and obstetricians employed by Bradford Hospitals were interviewed. RESULTS: The proportion of high risk women prescribed Aspirin rose (before 14%, after 54%, p = < 0.01 (confidence interval of change (CI) 37, 43%) as well as for moderate risk women (before 3%, after 54%, p = < 0.01, CI 48, 54%) following guidance publication. Three quarters had blood pressure and a third proteinuria measured at every antenatal visit before and after guidance. Early birth < 37 weeks and ≥ 37 weeks gestation was more frequently offered after guidance publication than before (< 37 weeks: before 9%, after 18%, p = 0.01, CI 2, 16% and ≥ 37 weeks before 30%, after 52%, p = < 0.01, CI 9, 35%). Few were informed of future risk of developing a hypertensive disorder or had a documented postnatal review; however there was an increase in women advised to see their GP for this review (58% before and 90% after guidance p = < 0.01, CI 24, 39%). All clinicians said the NICE HIP guidance was informative and provided robust evidence, however they said length of the document made use in practice challenging. They did not always access NICE guidance, preferring to use local guidance at least initially; both obstetricians and midwives said they accessed NICE guidance for in-depth information. CONCLUSIONS: NICE HIP guidance is valued, used by clinicians and has influenced important aspects of care that may help improve outcomes for women who develop hypertension or pre-eclampsia, however some recommendations have had limited impact and therefore interventions are required to improve adherence.

Advancing public health policy making through research on the political strategies of alcohol industry actors.

Development and implementation of evidence-based policies is needed in order to ameliorate the rising toll of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Alcohol is a key cause of the mortality burden and alcohol policies are under-developed. This is due in part to the global influence of the alcohol industry. We propose that a better understanding of the methods and the effectiveness of alcohol industry influence on public health policies will support efforts to combat such influence, and advance global health. Many of the issues on the research agenda we propose will inform, and be informed by, research into the political influence of other commercial actors.

The Caregiver Health Effects of Caring for Young Children with Developmental Disabilities: A Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Mothers of school age and older children with developmental disabilities experience poorer health than mothers of typically developing children. This review assesses the evidence for the effect on mothers' health of caring for young children with developmental disabilities, and the influence of different disability diagnoses and socioeconomic status. METHODS: Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO and CINAHL were searched. Studies measuring at least one symptom, using a quantitative scale, in mothers of preschool children (0-5 years) with and without a diagnosed developmental disability were selected. Random effects meta-analysis was performed, and predictive intervals reported due to high expected heterogeneity. RESULTS: The meta-analysis included 23 estimates of association from 14 retrospective studies for the outcomes of stress (n = 11), depressive symptoms (n = 9), general health (n = 2) and fatigue (n = 1). Caring for a child with a developmental disability was associated with greater ill health (standardised mean difference 0.87; 95% predictive interval - 0.47, 2.22). The largest association was for mixed developmental disabilities (1.36; - 0.64, 3.36) and smallest for Down syndrome (0.38; - 2.17, 2.92). There was insufficient socioeconomic information to perform subgroup analysis. The small number of studies and data heterogeneity limited the precision of the estimates of association and generalizability of the findings. CONCLUSIONS FOR PRACTICE: Mothers of young children with developmental disabilities may have poorer health than those with typically developing children. Research is needed to identify whether the relationship is causal and, if so, interventions that could reduce the negative effect of caregiving.

A reporting framework for describing and a typology for categorizing and analyzing the designs of health care pay for performance schemes.

BACKGROUND: Pay for Performance (P4P) has increasingly being adopted in different countries as a provider payment mechanism to improve health system performance. Evaluations of pay for performance (P4P) schemes across several countries show significant variation in effectiveness, which may be explained by differences in design. There is however no reliable framework to structure the reporting of the design or a typology to help analyse and interpret results of P4P schemes. This paper reports the development of a reporting framework and a typology of P4P schemes. METHODS: P4P design features were identified from literature and then explored using relevant theories from behavioural and economic science. These design features were then combined with the help of multidimensional tables to produce a reporting framework and a typology which was tested using 74 P4P studies. The inter-rater reliability of the typology was assessed using Fleiss' Kappa. RESULTS: A Healthcare Incentive Scheme Reporting Framework (HISReF) was developed consisting of nine design features. This was collapsed into a typology consisting of 4 items/design features. There was good inter-rater reliability on all the four items on the typology (kappa > 0.7). CONCLUSION: The HISReF provides an important first step towards establishing a common language in which intervention designers can clearly specify the content of P4P designs. Our typology may be used to aid evidence synthesis and interpretation of results of P4P schemes.

Evaluation of ethnic disparities in detection of depression and anxiety in primary care during the maternal period: combined analysis of routine and cohort data.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on detection disparities of common mental disorders in minority ethnic women. AIMS: Describe the natural history of common mental disorders in primary care in the maternal period, characterise women with, and explore ethnic disparities in, detected and potentially missed common mental disorders. METHOD: Secondary analyses of linked birth cohort and primary care data involving 8991 (39.4% White British) women in Bradford. Common mental disorders were characterised through indications in the electronic medical record. Potentially missed common mental disorders were defined as an elevated General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28) score during pregnancy with no corresponding common mental disorder markers in the medical record. RESULTS: Estimated prevalence of pre-birth common mental disorders was 9.5%, rising to 14.0% 3 years postnatally. Up to half of cases were potentially missed. Compared with White British women, minority ethnic women were twice as likely to have potentially missed common mental disorders and half as likely to have a marker of screening for common mental disorders. CONCLUSIONS: Common mental disorder detection disparities exist for minority ethnic women in the maternal period.

Variation and ethnic inequalities in treatment of common mental disorders before, during and after pregnancy: combined analysis of routine and research data in the Born in Bradford cohort.

BACKGROUND: Common mental disorders (CMD) such as anxiety and depression during the maternal period can cause significant morbidity to the mother in addition to disrupting biological, attachment and parenting processes that affect child development. Pharmacological treatment is a first-line option for moderate to severe episodes. Many women prescribed pharmacological treatments cease them during pregnancy but it is unclear to what extent non-pharmacological options are offered as replacement. There are also concerns that treatments offered may not be proportionate to need in minority ethnic groups, but few data exist on treatment disparities in the maternal period. We examined these questions in a multi-ethnic cohort of women with CMD living in Bradford, England before, during and up to one year after pregnancy. METHODS: We searched the primary care records of women enrolled in the Born in Bradford cohort for diagnoses, symptoms, signs ('identification'), referrals for treatment, non-pharmacological and pharmacological treatment and monitoring ('treatment') related to CMD. Records were linked with maternity data to classify women identified with a CMD as treated prior to, and one year after, delivery. We examined rates and types of treatment during pregnancy, and analysed potential ethnic group differences using adjusted Poisson and multinomial logistic regression models. RESULTS: We analysed data on 2,234 women with indicators of CMD. Most women were discontinued from pharmacological treatment early in pregnancy, but this was accompanied by recorded access to non-drug treatments in only 15 % at the time of delivery. Fewer minority ethnic women accessed treatments compared to White British women despite minority ethnic women being 55-70 % more likely than White British women to have been identified with anxiety in their medical record. CONCLUSIONS: Very few women who discontinued pharmacological treatment early in their pregnancy were offered other non-pharmacological treatments as replacement, and most appeared to complete their pregnancy untreated. Further investigation is warranted to replicate the finding that minority ethnic women are more likely to be identified as being anxious or having anxiety and understand what causes the variation in access to treatments.

Meta-evaluation of a whole systems programme, ActEarly: A study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Living in an area with high levels of child poverty predisposes children to poorer mental and physical health. ActEarly is a 5-year research programme that comprises a large number of interventions (>20) with citizen science and co-production embedded. It aims to improve the health and well-being of children and families living in two areas of the UK with high levels of deprivation; Bradford in West Yorkshire, and the London Borough of Tower Hamlets. This protocol outlines the meta-evaluation (an evaluation of evaluations) of the ActEarly programme from a systems perspective, where individual interventions are viewed as events in the wider policy system across the two geographical areas. It includes investigating the programme's impact on early life health and well-being outcomes, interdisciplinary prevention research collaboration and capacity building, and local and national decision making. METHODS: The ActEarly meta-evaluation will follow and adapt the five iterative stages of the 'Evaluation of Programmes in Complex Adaptive Systems' (ENCOMPASS) framework for evaluation of public health programmes in complex adaptive systems. Theory-based and mixed-methods approaches will be used to investigate the fidelity of the ActEarly research programme, and whether, why and how ActEarly contributes to changes in the policy system, and whether alternative explanations can be ruled out. Ripple effects and systems mapping will be used to explore the relationships between interventions and their outcomes, and the degree to which the ActEarly programme encouraged interdisciplinary and prevention research collaboration as intended. A computer simulation model ("LifeSim") will also be used to evaluate the scale of the potential long-term benefits of cross-sectoral action to tackle the financial, educational and health disadvantages faced by children in Bradford and Tower Hamlets. Together, these approaches will be used to evaluate ActEarly's dynamic programme outputs at different system levels and measure the programme's system changes on early life health and well-being. DISCUSSION: This meta-evaluation protocol presents our plans for using and adapting the ENCOMPASS framework to evaluate the system-wide impact of the early life health and well-being programme, ActEarly. Due to the collaborative and non-linear nature of the work, we reserve the option to change and query some of our evaluation choices based on the feedback we receive from stakeholders to ensure that our evaluation remains relevant and fit for purpose.

A review of the effectiveness and experiences of welfare advice services co-located in health settings: A critical narrative systematic review.

We conducted a narrative systematic review to assess the health, social and financial impacts of co-located welfare services in the UK and to explore the effectiveness of and facilitators and barriers to successful implementation of these services, in order to guide future policy and practice. We searched Medline, EMBASE and other literature sources, from January 2010 to November 2020, for literature examining the impact of co-located welfare services in the UK on any outcome. The review identified 14 studies employing a range of study designs, including: one non-randomised controlled trial; one pilot randomised controlled trial; one before-and-after-study; three qualitative studies; and eight case studies. A theory of change model, developed a priori, was used as an analytical framework against which to map the evidence on how the services work, why and for whom. All studies demonstrated improved financial security for participants, generating an average of £27 of social, economic and environmental return per £1 invested. Some studies reported improved mental health for individuals accessing services. Several studies attributed subjective improvements in physical health to the service addressing key social determinants of health. Benefits to the health service were also demonstrated through reduced workload for healthcare professionals. Key components of a successful service included co-production during service development and ongoing enhanced multi-disciplinary collaboration. Overall, this review demonstrates improved financial security for participants and for the first time models the wider health and welfare benefits for participants and for health service from these services. However, given the generally poor scientific quality of the studies, care must be taken in drawing firm conclusions. There remains a need for more high quality research, using experimental methods and larger sample sizes, to further build upon this evidence base and to measure the strength of the proposed theoretical pathways in this area.

Connected Bradford: a Whole System Data Linkage Accelerator.

The richness of linked population data provides exciting opportunities to understand local health needs, identify and predict those in most need of support and evaluate health interventions. There has been extensive investment to unlock the potential of clinical data for health research in the UK. However, most of the determinants of our health are social, economic, education, environmental, housing, food systems and are influenced by local authorities. The Connected Bradford Whole System Data Linkage Accelerator was set up to link health, education, social care, environmental and other local government data to drive learning health systems, prevention and population health management. Data spanning a period of over forty years has been linked for 800,000 individuals using the pseudonymised NHS number and other data variables. This prospective data collection captures near real time activity. This paper describes the dataset and our Connected Bradford Whole System Data Accelerator Framework that covers public engagement; practitioner and policy integration; legal and ethical approvals; information governance; technicalities of data linkage; data curation and guardianship; data validity and visualisation.

'When will this end? Will it end?' The impact of the March-June 2020 UK COVID-19 lockdown response on mental health: a longitudinal survey of mothers in the Born in Bradford study.

OBJECTIVES: To explore clinically important increases in depression/anxiety from before to during the first UK COVID-19 lockdown and factors related to this change, with a particular focus on ethnic differences. DESIGN: Pre-COVID-19 and lockdown surveys nested within two longitudinal Born in Bradford cohort studies. PARTICIPANTS: 1860 mothers with a child aged 0-5 or 9-13, 48% Pakistani heritage. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: ORs for a clinically important increase (5 points or more) in depression (eight item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-8)) and anxiety (Generalised Anxiety Disorder Assessment (GAD-7)) in unadjusted regression analyses, repeated with exposures of interest separated by ethnicity to look for differences in magnitude of associations, and lived experience of mothers captured in open text questions. RESULTS: The number of women reporting clinically important depression/anxiety increased from 11% to 20% (95% CI 10%-13%; 18%-22%) and from 10% to 16% (95% CI 8%-11%; 15%-18%), respectively. Increases in depression/anxiety were associated with loneliness (OR=8.37, 95% CI 5.70 to 12.27; 8.50, 95% CI 5.71 to 12.65, respectively); financial (6.23, 95% CI 3.96 to 9.80; 6.03, 95% CI 3.82 to 9.51), food (3.33, 95% CI 2.09 to 5.28; 3.46, 95% CI 2.15 to 5.58) and housing insecurity (3.29, 95% CI 2.36 to 4.58; 3.0, 95% CI 2.11 to 4.25); a lack of physical activity (3.13, 95% CI 2.15 to 4.56; 2.55, 95% CI 1.72 to 3.78); and a poor partner relationship (3.6, 95% CI 2.44 to 5.43; 5.1, 95% CI 3.37 to 7.62). The magnitude of associations between key exposures and worsening mental health varied between ethnic groups.Responses to open text questions illustrated a complex interplay of challenges contributing to mental ill health including: acute health anxieties; the mental load of managing multiple responsibilities; loss of social support and coping strategies; pressures of financial and employment insecurity; and being unable to switch off from the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Mental ill health has worsened for many during the COVID-19 lockdown, particularly in those who are lonely and economically insecure. The magnitude of associations between key exposures and worsening mental health varied between ethnic groups. Mental health problems may have longer term consequences for public health and interventions that address the potential causes are needed.

Ethnicity, pre-existing comorbidities, and outcomes of hospitalised patients with COVID-19.

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in thousands of deaths in the UK. Those with existing comorbidities and minority ethnic groups have been found to be at increased risk of mortality. We wished to determine if there were any differences in intensive care unit (ICU) admission and 30-day hospital mortality in a city with high levels of deprivation and a large community of people of South Asian heritage.  Methods: Detailed information on 622 COVID-19-positive inpatients in Bradford and Calderdale between February-August 2020 were extracted from Electronic Health Records. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to explore the relationship between ethnicity with admission to ICU and 30-day mortality, respectively accounting for the effect of demographic and clinical confounders. Results: The sample consisted of 408 (70%) White, 142 (24%) South Asian and 32 (6%) other minority ethnic patients. Ethnic minority patients were younger, more likely to live in deprived areas, and be overweight/obese, have type 2 diabetes, hypertension and asthma compared to white patients, but were less likely to have cancer (South Asian patients only) and COPD. Male and obese patients were more likely to be admitted to ICU, and patients of South Asian ethnicity, older age, and those with cancer were less likely. Being male, older age, deprivation, obesity, and cancer were associated with 30-day mortality. The risk of death in South Asian patients was the same as in white patients HR 1.03 (0.58, 1.82). Conclusions: Despite South Asian patients being less likely to be admitted to ICU and having a higher prevalence of diabetes and obesity, there was no difference in the risk of death compared to white patients. This contrasts with other findings and highlights the value of studies of communities which may have different ethnic, deprivation and clinical risk profiles.

Health of mothers of children with a life-limiting condition: a comparative cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to quantify the incidence rates of common mental and physical health conditions in mothers of children with a life-limiting condition. METHODS: Comparative national longitudinal cohort study using linked primary and secondary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England. Maternal-child dyads were identified in these data. Maternal physical and mental health outcomes were identified in the primary and secondary care datasets using previously developed diagnostic coding frameworks. Incidence rates of the outcomes were modelled using Poisson regression, adjusting for deprivation, ethnicity and age and accounting for time at risk. RESULTS: A total of 35 683 mothers; 8950 had a child with a life-limiting condition, 8868 had a child with a chronic condition and 17 865 had a child with no long-term condition.The adjusted incidence rates of all of the physical and mental health conditions were significantly higher in the mothers of children with a life-limiting condition when compared with those mothers with a child with no long-term condition (eg, depression: incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.21, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.30; cardiovascular disease: IRR 1.73, 95% CI 1.27 to 2.36; death in mothers: IRR 1.59, 95% CI 1.16 to 2.18). CONCLUSION: This study clearly demonstrates the higher incidence rates of common and serious physical and mental health problems and death in mothers of children with a life-limiting condition. Further research is required to understand how best to support these mothers, but healthcare providers should consider how they can target this population to provide preventative and treatment services.

External validation of the Dutch prediction model for prehospital triage of trauma patients in South West region of England, United Kingdom.

IMPORTANCE: This paper investigates the use of a major trauma prediction model in the UK setting. We demonstrate that application of this model could reduce the number of patients with major trauma being incorrectly sent to non-specialist hospitals. However, more research is needed to reduce over-triage and unnecessary transfer to Major Trauma Centres. OBJECTIVE: To externally validate the Dutch prediction model for identifying major trauma in a large unselected prehospital population of injured patients in England. DESIGN: External validation using a retrospective cohort of injured patients who ambulance crews transported to hospitals. SETTING: South West region of England. PARTICIPANTS: All patients ≥16 years with a suspected injury and transported by ambulance in the year from February 1, 2017. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: 1) Patients aged ≤15 years; 2) Non-ambulance attendance at hospital with injuries; 3) Death at the scene and; 4) Patients conveyed by helicopter. This study had a census sample of cases available to us over a one year period. INTERVENTIONS OR EXPOSURES: Tested the accuracy of the prediction model in terms of discrimination, calibration, clinical usefulness, sensitivity and specificity and under- and over triage rates compared to usual triage practices in the South West region. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Major trauma defined as an Injury Severity Score>15. RESULTS: A total of 68799 adult patients were included in the external validation cohort. The median age of patients was 72 (i.q.r. 46-84); 55.5% were female; and 524 (0.8%) had an Injury Severity Score>15. The model achieved good discrimination with a C-Statistic 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73 - 0.78). The maximal specificity of 50% and sensitivity of 83% suggests the model could improve undertriage rates at the expense of increased overtriage rates compared with routine trauma triage methods used in the South West, England. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The Dutch prediction model for identifying major trauma could lower the undertriage rate to 17%, however it would increase the overtriage rate to 50% in this United Kingdom cohort. Further prospective research is needed to determine whether the model can be practically implemented by paramedics and is cost-effective.