An evaluation of the influence of the publication of the UK National Institute for health and Care Excellence's guidance on hypertension in pregnancy: a retrospective analysis of clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: The UK National Institute for health and Care Excellence (NICE) publish guidance aimed at standardising practice. Evidence regarding how well recommendations are implemented and what clinicians think about guidance is limited. We aimed to establish the extent to which the NICE Hypertension in pregnancy (HIP) guidance has influenced care and assess clinician's attitudes to this guidance. METHODS: Five maternity units in the Midlands and North of England took part in the retrospective evaluation of 2490 birth records from randomly selected dates in 2008-2010 and 2013-2015. The proportion of women where care was adhered to before (2008-2010) and after (2013-2015) guidance publication was examined and differences estimated. Eleven midwives and obstetricians employed by Bradford Hospitals were interviewed. RESULTS: The proportion of high risk women prescribed Aspirin rose (before 14%, after 54%, p = < 0.01 (confidence interval of change (CI) 37, 43%) as well as for moderate risk women (before 3%, after 54%, p = < 0.01, CI 48, 54%) following guidance publication. Three quarters had blood pressure and a third proteinuria measured at every antenatal visit before and after guidance. Early birth < 37 weeks and ≥ 37 weeks gestation was more frequently offered after guidance publication than before (< 37 weeks: before 9%, after 18%, p = 0.01, CI 2, 16% and ≥ 37 weeks before 30%, after 52%, p = < 0.01, CI 9, 35%). Few were informed of future risk of developing a hypertensive disorder or had a documented postnatal review; however there was an increase in women advised to see their GP for this review (58% before and 90% after guidance p = < 0.01, CI 24, 39%). All clinicians said the NICE HIP guidance was informative and provided robust evidence, however they said length of the document made use in practice challenging. They did not always access NICE guidance, preferring to use local guidance at least initially; both obstetricians and midwives said they accessed NICE guidance for in-depth information. CONCLUSIONS: NICE HIP guidance is valued, used by clinicians and has influenced important aspects of care that may help improve outcomes for women who develop hypertension or pre-eclampsia, however some recommendations have had limited impact and therefore interventions are required to improve adherence.

Advancing public health policy making through research on the political strategies of alcohol industry actors.

Development and implementation of evidence-based policies is needed in order to ameliorate the rising toll of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Alcohol is a key cause of the mortality burden and alcohol policies are under-developed. This is due in part to the global influence of the alcohol industry. We propose that a better understanding of the methods and the effectiveness of alcohol industry influence on public health policies will support efforts to combat such influence, and advance global health. Many of the issues on the research agenda we propose will inform, and be informed by, research into the political influence of other commercial actors.

The Caregiver Health Effects of Caring for Young Children with Developmental Disabilities: A Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Mothers of school age and older children with developmental disabilities experience poorer health than mothers of typically developing children. This review assesses the evidence for the effect on mothers' health of caring for young children with developmental disabilities, and the influence of different disability diagnoses and socioeconomic status. METHODS: Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO and CINAHL were searched. Studies measuring at least one symptom, using a quantitative scale, in mothers of preschool children (0-5 years) with and without a diagnosed developmental disability were selected. Random effects meta-analysis was performed, and predictive intervals reported due to high expected heterogeneity. RESULTS: The meta-analysis included 23 estimates of association from 14 retrospective studies for the outcomes of stress (n = 11), depressive symptoms (n = 9), general health (n = 2) and fatigue (n = 1). Caring for a child with a developmental disability was associated with greater ill health (standardised mean difference 0.87; 95% predictive interval - 0.47, 2.22). The largest association was for mixed developmental disabilities (1.36; - 0.64, 3.36) and smallest for Down syndrome (0.38; - 2.17, 2.92). There was insufficient socioeconomic information to perform subgroup analysis. The small number of studies and data heterogeneity limited the precision of the estimates of association and generalizability of the findings. CONCLUSIONS FOR PRACTICE: Mothers of young children with developmental disabilities may have poorer health than those with typically developing children. Research is needed to identify whether the relationship is causal and, if so, interventions that could reduce the negative effect of caregiving.

A reporting framework for describing and a typology for categorizing and analyzing the designs of health care pay for performance schemes.

BACKGROUND: Pay for Performance (P4P) has increasingly being adopted in different countries as a provider payment mechanism to improve health system performance. Evaluations of pay for performance (P4P) schemes across several countries show significant variation in effectiveness, which may be explained by differences in design. There is however no reliable framework to structure the reporting of the design or a typology to help analyse and interpret results of P4P schemes. This paper reports the development of a reporting framework and a typology of P4P schemes. METHODS: P4P design features were identified from literature and then explored using relevant theories from behavioural and economic science. These design features were then combined with the help of multidimensional tables to produce a reporting framework and a typology which was tested using 74 P4P studies. The inter-rater reliability of the typology was assessed using Fleiss' Kappa. RESULTS: A Healthcare Incentive Scheme Reporting Framework (HISReF) was developed consisting of nine design features. This was collapsed into a typology consisting of 4 items/design features. There was good inter-rater reliability on all the four items on the typology (kappa > 0.7). CONCLUSION: The HISReF provides an important first step towards establishing a common language in which intervention designers can clearly specify the content of P4P designs. Our typology may be used to aid evidence synthesis and interpretation of results of P4P schemes.

Evaluation of ethnic disparities in detection of depression and anxiety in primary care during the maternal period: combined analysis of routine and cohort data.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on detection disparities of common mental disorders in minority ethnic women. AIMS: Describe the natural history of common mental disorders in primary care in the maternal period, characterise women with, and explore ethnic disparities in, detected and potentially missed common mental disorders. METHOD: Secondary analyses of linked birth cohort and primary care data involving 8991 (39.4% White British) women in Bradford. Common mental disorders were characterised through indications in the electronic medical record. Potentially missed common mental disorders were defined as an elevated General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28) score during pregnancy with no corresponding common mental disorder markers in the medical record. RESULTS: Estimated prevalence of pre-birth common mental disorders was 9.5%, rising to 14.0% 3 years postnatally. Up to half of cases were potentially missed. Compared with White British women, minority ethnic women were twice as likely to have potentially missed common mental disorders and half as likely to have a marker of screening for common mental disorders. CONCLUSIONS: Common mental disorder detection disparities exist for minority ethnic women in the maternal period.

Variation and ethnic inequalities in treatment of common mental disorders before, during and after pregnancy: combined analysis of routine and research data in the Born in Bradford cohort.

BACKGROUND: Common mental disorders (CMD) such as anxiety and depression during the maternal period can cause significant morbidity to the mother in addition to disrupting biological, attachment and parenting processes that affect child development. Pharmacological treatment is a first-line option for moderate to severe episodes. Many women prescribed pharmacological treatments cease them during pregnancy but it is unclear to what extent non-pharmacological options are offered as replacement. There are also concerns that treatments offered may not be proportionate to need in minority ethnic groups, but few data exist on treatment disparities in the maternal period. We examined these questions in a multi-ethnic cohort of women with CMD living in Bradford, England before, during and up to one year after pregnancy. METHODS: We searched the primary care records of women enrolled in the Born in Bradford cohort for diagnoses, symptoms, signs ('identification'), referrals for treatment, non-pharmacological and pharmacological treatment and monitoring ('treatment') related to CMD. Records were linked with maternity data to classify women identified with a CMD as treated prior to, and one year after, delivery. We examined rates and types of treatment during pregnancy, and analysed potential ethnic group differences using adjusted Poisson and multinomial logistic regression models. RESULTS: We analysed data on 2,234 women with indicators of CMD. Most women were discontinued from pharmacological treatment early in pregnancy, but this was accompanied by recorded access to non-drug treatments in only 15 % at the time of delivery. Fewer minority ethnic women accessed treatments compared to White British women despite minority ethnic women being 55-70 % more likely than White British women to have been identified with anxiety in their medical record. CONCLUSIONS: Very few women who discontinued pharmacological treatment early in their pregnancy were offered other non-pharmacological treatments as replacement, and most appeared to complete their pregnancy untreated. Further investigation is warranted to replicate the finding that minority ethnic women are more likely to be identified as being anxious or having anxiety and understand what causes the variation in access to treatments.

A review of the effectiveness and experiences of welfare advice services co-located in health settings: A critical narrative systematic review.

We conducted a narrative systematic review to assess the health, social and financial impacts of co-located welfare services in the UK and to explore the effectiveness of and facilitators and barriers to successful implementation of these services, in order to guide future policy and practice. We searched Medline, EMBASE and other literature sources, from January 2010 to November 2020, for literature examining the impact of co-located welfare services in the UK on any outcome. The review identified 14 studies employing a range of study designs, including: one non-randomised controlled trial; one pilot randomised controlled trial; one before-and-after-study; three qualitative studies; and eight case studies. A theory of change model, developed a priori, was used as an analytical framework against which to map the evidence on how the services work, why and for whom. All studies demonstrated improved financial security for participants, generating an average of £27 of social, economic and environmental return per £1 invested. Some studies reported improved mental health for individuals accessing services. Several studies attributed subjective improvements in physical health to the service addressing key social determinants of health. Benefits to the health service were also demonstrated through reduced workload for healthcare professionals. Key components of a successful service included co-production during service development and ongoing enhanced multi-disciplinary collaboration. Overall, this review demonstrates improved financial security for participants and for the first time models the wider health and welfare benefits for participants and for health service from these services. However, given the generally poor scientific quality of the studies, care must be taken in drawing firm conclusions. There remains a need for more high quality research, using experimental methods and larger sample sizes, to further build upon this evidence base and to measure the strength of the proposed theoretical pathways in this area.

'When will this end? Will it end?' The impact of the March-June 2020 UK COVID-19 lockdown response on mental health: a longitudinal survey of mothers in the Born in Bradford study.

OBJECTIVES: To explore clinically important increases in depression/anxiety from before to during the first UK COVID-19 lockdown and factors related to this change, with a particular focus on ethnic differences. DESIGN: Pre-COVID-19 and lockdown surveys nested within two longitudinal Born in Bradford cohort studies. PARTICIPANTS: 1860 mothers with a child aged 0-5 or 9-13, 48% Pakistani heritage. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: ORs for a clinically important increase (5 points or more) in depression (eight item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-8)) and anxiety (Generalised Anxiety Disorder Assessment (GAD-7)) in unadjusted regression analyses, repeated with exposures of interest separated by ethnicity to look for differences in magnitude of associations, and lived experience of mothers captured in open text questions. RESULTS: The number of women reporting clinically important depression/anxiety increased from 11% to 20% (95% CI 10%-13%; 18%-22%) and from 10% to 16% (95% CI 8%-11%; 15%-18%), respectively. Increases in depression/anxiety were associated with loneliness (OR=8.37, 95% CI 5.70 to 12.27; 8.50, 95% CI 5.71 to 12.65, respectively); financial (6.23, 95% CI 3.96 to 9.80; 6.03, 95% CI 3.82 to 9.51), food (3.33, 95% CI 2.09 to 5.28; 3.46, 95% CI 2.15 to 5.58) and housing insecurity (3.29, 95% CI 2.36 to 4.58; 3.0, 95% CI 2.11 to 4.25); a lack of physical activity (3.13, 95% CI 2.15 to 4.56; 2.55, 95% CI 1.72 to 3.78); and a poor partner relationship (3.6, 95% CI 2.44 to 5.43; 5.1, 95% CI 3.37 to 7.62). The magnitude of associations between key exposures and worsening mental health varied between ethnic groups.Responses to open text questions illustrated a complex interplay of challenges contributing to mental ill health including: acute health anxieties; the mental load of managing multiple responsibilities; loss of social support and coping strategies; pressures of financial and employment insecurity; and being unable to switch off from the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Mental ill health has worsened for many during the COVID-19 lockdown, particularly in those who are lonely and economically insecure. The magnitude of associations between key exposures and worsening mental health varied between ethnic groups. Mental health problems may have longer term consequences for public health and interventions that address the potential causes are needed.

Ethnicity, pre-existing comorbidities, and outcomes of hospitalised patients with COVID-19.

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in thousands of deaths in the UK. Those with existing comorbidities and minority ethnic groups have been found to be at increased risk of mortality. We wished to determine if there were any differences in intensive care unit (ICU) admission and 30-day hospital mortality in a city with high levels of deprivation and a large community of people of South Asian heritage.  Methods: Detailed information on 622 COVID-19-positive inpatients in Bradford and Calderdale between February-August 2020 were extracted from Electronic Health Records. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to explore the relationship between ethnicity with admission to ICU and 30-day mortality, respectively accounting for the effect of demographic and clinical confounders. Results: The sample consisted of 408 (70%) White, 142 (24%) South Asian and 32 (6%) other minority ethnic patients. Ethnic minority patients were younger, more likely to live in deprived areas, and be overweight/obese, have type 2 diabetes, hypertension and asthma compared to white patients, but were less likely to have cancer (South Asian patients only) and COPD. Male and obese patients were more likely to be admitted to ICU, and patients of South Asian ethnicity, older age, and those with cancer were less likely. Being male, older age, deprivation, obesity, and cancer were associated with 30-day mortality. The risk of death in South Asian patients was the same as in white patients HR 1.03 (0.58, 1.82). Conclusions: Despite South Asian patients being less likely to be admitted to ICU and having a higher prevalence of diabetes and obesity, there was no difference in the risk of death compared to white patients. This contrasts with other findings and highlights the value of studies of communities which may have different ethnic, deprivation and clinical risk profiles.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in an ethnically diverse community: descriptive findings from the Born in Bradford study.

Background: The roll out of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines are underway in the UK, and ensuring good uptake in vulnerable communities will be critical to reducing hospital admissions and deaths. There is emerging evidence that vaccine hesitancy is higher in ethnic minorities and deprived areas, and that this may be caused by distrust and misinformation in the community. This study aims to understand COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in an ethnically diverse and deprived population of Bradford through the Born in Bradford (BiB) research programme. Methods: Surveys were sent to parents in BiB who had taken part in a previous Covid-19 survey (n=1727). Cross tabulations explored variation by ethnicity and deprivation. Answers to a question asking the main reason for hesitancy was analysed using thematic analysis. Results: 535 (31%) of those invited between 29 th October-9 th December 2020 participated. 48% were White British, 37% Pakistani heritage and 15% from other ethnicities; 46% were from the most deprived quintile of the Index of Multiple Deprivation. 29% of respondents do want a vaccine, 10% do not. The majority had not thought about it (29%) or were unsure (30%). Vaccine hesitancy differed by ethnicity and deprivation: 43% (95% CIs: 37-54%) of White British and 60% (35-81%) in the least deprived areas do want a vaccine, compared to 13% (9-19%) of Pakistani heritage and 20% (15-26%) in the most deprived areas. Reasons for not wanting a vaccine were commonly explained by confusion and distrust which was linked to exposure to misinformation. Conclusions: There is a risk of unequitable roll out of the vaccination programme in the UK with higher vaccine hesitancy in ethnic minorities and those living in deprived areas. There is an urgent need to tackle misinformation that is leading to uncertainty and confusion about the vaccines.

Measuring fidelity to behavioural support delivery for smoking cessation and its association with outcomes.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Behavioural support increases smoking cessation in clinical settings, but effect sizes differ among providers, due possibly to variations in delivery. This study evaluates a measure ('fidelity index') intended to capture fidelity to delivery of content- and interaction-based items of a behavioural support (BS) for smoking cessation and the association of fidelity with quit rates. METHODS: A fidelity index for scoring the adherence and quality domains of a specific BS intervention, '5As for quit', was developed by classifying the intervention components using the taxonomy of behaviour change techniques. The index was applied to code 154 BS sessions audiotaped among 18 chest clinics in Pakistan to assess their fidelity and explore reliability of coding. The association between intervention fidelity and successful quit achieved by the same providers in a previous study was explored using regression analysis. RESULTS: The index represented two domains: adherence to delivery of content-based activities of 5As (37 items) and quality of interaction-based activities (eight items). The intercoder reliability was good for content-based (average Krippendorff's α = 0.80) and moderate for interaction-based (average Krippendorff's α = 0.66) items. Approximately 70% (intraclass correlation coefficient: adherence scores = 0.72, quality scores = 0.71) of variation in BS delivery was contributed by providers, which increased to 97% (g-coefficient: adherence scores = 0.973, quality scores = 0.974) after accounting for other sources of variation. Higher quit rates were positively associated with average quality scores [risk ratio = 2.15; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.43-3.24], but negatively associated with average adherence scores (risk ratio = 0.55; 95% CI = 0.40-0.77) within services. CONCLUSIONS: The fidelity index is a reliable measure for quantifying intervention fidelity of delivering smoking cessation behavioural support. Recommended revisions of the fidelity index include incorporation of additional interaction-based items, such as the relational techniques used in motivational interviewing.

Starting school: educational development as a function of age of entry and prematurity.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impact on early development of prematurity and summer birth and the potential 'double disadvantage' created by starting school a year earlier than anticipated during pregnancy, due to being born preterm. DESIGN, SETTING AND PATIENTS: We investigated the impact of gestational and school-entry age on the likelihood of failing to achieve a 'Good Level of Development' (GLD) on the Early Years Foundation Stage Profile in 5-year-old children born moderate-to-late preterm using data from the Born in Bradford longitudinal birth cohort. We used hierarchical logistic regression to control for chronological maturity, and perinatal and socioeconomic factors. RESULTS: Gestational age and school-entry age were significant predictors of attaining a GLD in the 10 337 children who entered school in the correct academic year given their estimated date of delivery. The odds of not attaining a GLD increased by 1.09 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.11) for each successive week born early and by 1.17 for each month younger within the year group (95% CI 1.16 to 1.18). There was no interaction between these two effects. Children starting school a year earlier than anticipated during pregnancy were less likely to achieve a GLD compared with (1) other children born preterm (fully adjusted OR 5.51 (2.85-14.25)); (2) term summer births (3.02 (1.49-6.79)); and (3) preterm summer births who remained within their anticipated school-entry year (3.64 (1.27-11.48)). CONCLUSIONS: These results confirm the developmental risks faced by children born moderate-to-late preterm, and-for the first time-illustrate the increased risk associated with 'double disadvantage'.

The Born in Bradford COVID-19 Research Study: Protocol for an adaptive mixed methods research study to gather actionable intelligence on the impact of COVID-19 on health inequalities amongst families living in Bradford.

The UK COVID-19 lockdown has included restricting social movement and interaction to slow the spread of disease and reduce demand on NHS acute services. It is likely that the impacts of restrictions will hit the least advantaged disproportionately and will worsen existing structural inequalities amongst deprived and ethnic minority groups. The aim of this study is to deliver rapid intelligence to enable an effective COVID-19 response, including co-production of interventions, that address key issues in the City of Bradford, UK, and nationally. In the longer term we aim to understand the impacts of the response on health trajectories and inequalities in these. In this paper we describe our approach and protocol. We plan an adaptive longitudinal mixed methods approach embedded with Born in Bradford (BiB) birth cohorts which have rich existing data (including questionnaire, routine health and biobank). All work packages (WP) interact and are ongoing. WP1 uses co-production and engagement methods with communities, decision-makers and researchers to continuously set (changing) research priorities and will, longer-term, co-produce interventions to aid the City's recovery. In WP2 repeated quantitative surveys will be administered during lockdown (April-June 2020), with three repeat surveys until 12 months post-lockdown with an ethnically diverse pool of BiB participants (parents, children aged 9-13 years, pregnant women: total sample pool N=7,652, N=5,154, N=1,800). A range of health, social, economic and education outcomes will be assessed. In WP3 priority topics identified in WP1 and WP2 will be explored qualitatively. Initial priority topics include children's mental wellbeing, health beliefs and the peri/post-natal period. Feedback loops will ensure findings are fed directly to decision-makers and communities (via WP1) to enable co-production of acceptable interventions and identify future priority topic areas. Findings will be used to aid development of local and national policy to support recovery from the pandemic and minimise health inequalities.

Experiences of lockdown during the Covid-19 pandemic: descriptive findings from a survey of families in the Born in Bradford study.

Background: Lockdown measures implemented to contain the Covid-19 virus may be increasing health inequalities, with families from deprived and ethnically diverse backgrounds most likely to be adversely affected. This paper presents findings of the experiences of the Covid-19 lockdown on families living in the multi-ethnic and deprived city of Bradford, England. Methods: Questionnaire surveys were sent during the Covid-19 UK lockdown (10th April to 30 th June 2020) to parents in two prospective birth cohort studies. Cross tabulations explored variation by ethnicity and employment status. Text from open questions were analysed using thematic analysis. Results: Of 7,652 families invited, 2,144 (28%) participated. Ethnicity of respondents was: 957 (47%) Pakistani heritage, 715 (35%) White British and 356 (18%) other. 971 (46%) live in the most deprived decile of material deprivation in England. 2,043 (95%) were mothers and 101 were partners. The results summarised below are based on the mothers' responses. Many families live in poor quality (N=574, 28%), and overcrowded (N=364, 19%) housing; this was more common in families of Pakistani heritage and other ethnicities. Financial (N=738 (37%), food (N=396, 20%), employment (N=728, 37%) and housing (N=204, 10%) insecurities were common, particularly in those who were furloughed, self-employed not working or unemployed. Clinically significant depression and anxiety symptoms were reported by 372 (19%) and 318 (16%) of the mothers and were more common in White British mothers and those with economic insecurity. Open text responses corroborated these findings and highlighted high levels of anxiety about becoming ill or dying from Covid-19. Conclusions: The experiences of the Covid-19 lockdown in this ethnically diverse and deprived population highlight a large number of families living in poor housing conditions, suffering from economic insecurity and poor mental health. There is a need for policy makers and commissioners to better support these families.

Development of a Clinical Decision Rule for the Early Safe Discharge of Patients with Mild Traumatic Brain Injury and Findings on Computed Tomography Brain Scan: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

International guidelines recommend routine hospital admission for all patients with mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) who have injuries on computed tomography (CT) brain scan. Only a small proportion of these patients require neurosurgical or critical care intervention. We aimed to develop an accurate clinical decision rule to identify low-risk patients safe for discharge from the emergency department (ED) and facilitate earlier referral of those requiring intervention. A retrospective cohort study of case notes of patients admitted with initial Glasgow Coma Scale 13-15 and injuries identified by CT was completed. Data on a primary outcome measure of clinically important deterioration (indicating need for hospital admission) and secondary outcome of neurosurgery, intensive care unit admission, or intubation (indicating need for neurosurgical admission) were collected. Multi-variable logistic regression was used to derive models and a risk score predicting deterioration using routinely reported clinical and radiological candidate variables identified in a systematic review. We compared the performance of this new risk score with the Brain Injury Guideline (BIG) criteria, derived in the United States. A total of 1699 patients were included from three English major trauma centers. A total of 27.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 25.5-29.9) met the primary and 13.1% (95% CI, 11.6-14.8) met the secondary outcomes of deterioration. The derived clinical decision rule suggests that patients with simple skull fractures or intracranial bleeding <5 mm in diameter who are fully conscious could be safely discharged from the ED. The decision rule achieved a sensitivity of 99.5% (95% CI, 98.1-99.9) and specificity of 7.4% (95% CI, 6.0-9.1) to the primary outcome. The BIG criteria achieved the same sensitivity, but lower specificity (5%). Our empirical models showed good predictive performance and outperformed the BIG criteria. This would potentially allow ED discharge of 1 in 20 patients currently admitted for observation. However, prospective external validation and economic evaluation are required.

Private and social time preference for health outcomes: A general population survey in Iran.

Despite the recent increase in economic evaluations of health care programs in low and middle income countries, there is still a surprising gap in evidence on the appropriate discount rate and the discounting of health outcomes such as quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Our study aimed to calculate the implied time preference rate for health outcomes in Iran and its key determinants. Data were gathered from one family member from each of the 650 households randomly selected in Tehran. The respondents' private and social preferences for health outcomes were calculated using the time trade-off (TTO) technique based on the discounted utility model. We investigated the main assumptions of the discounted utility model through equality of mean comparison, and the association between private time preference and key socio-economic determinants using multilevel regression analysis. The mean and median implied rates were 5.8% and 4.9% for private time preference and 25.6% and 20% for social time preference respectively. Our study confirmed that magnitude, framing and time effects have a significant impact on implied discount rates, which means that the conventional discounted utility model's main assumptions are violated in the Iranian general population. Other models of discounting which apply lower rates for far health outcomes might provide a more sensible solution to discounting health interventions with long-term impacts.

Blood pressure change across pregnancy in white British and Pakistani women: analysis of data from the Born in Bradford cohort.

The incidence of gestational hypertension (GH) and pre-eclampsia (PE) is increasing. Use of blood pressure (BP) change patterns may improve early detection of BP abnormalities. We used Linear spline random-effects models to estimate BP patterns across pregnancy for white British and Pakistani women. Pakistani women compared to white British women had lower BP during the first two trimesters of pregnancy, irrespective of the development of GH or PE or presence of a risk factor. Pakistani compared to white British women with GH and PE showed steeper BP increases towards the end of pregnancy. Pakistani women were half as likely to develop GH, but as likely to develop PE than white British women. To conclude; BP trajectories differ by ethnicity. Because GH developed evenly from 20 weeks gestation, and PE occurred more commonly after 36 weeks in both ethnic groups, the lower BP up to the third trimester in Pakistani women resulted in a lower GH rate, whereas PE rates, influenced by the steep third trimester BP increase were similar. Criteria for diagnosing GH and PE may benefit from considering ethnic differences in BP change across pregnancy.

Incidence, preventability and consequences of adverse events in older people: results of a retrospective case-note review.

OBJECTIVES: to estimate the extent, preventability and consequences of adverse clinical events in elderly and non-elderly patients. DESIGN: a two-stage structured, retrospective, patient case-note review. SETTING: a large NHS hospital in England. POPULATION: a random sample of 1,006 non-psychiatric patients. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: proportion of patients with adverse events, the proportion of preventable adverse events and the types and consequences of adverse events in patients >or=75 and under 75 years old. RESULTS: forty five [13.5%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 10-17] of 332 patients >or=75 years and 42 (6.2%; 95% CI 4-8) of 674 patients <75 years had at least one adverse event. There was a significantly raised risk of experiencing an adverse event with increasing age [odds ratio (OR) = 1.03 adverse events per year of life, P < 0.001]. There was no statistically significant difference in preventability of adverse events and also in experiencing disability or death as a result of an adverse event by age after adjustment for potential confounders. CONCLUSION: adverse events are significantly more common in non-psychiatric elderly inpatients than younger patients. There is little evidence that adverse events in older patients are more preventable and lead to disability or death more frequently.

Qualitative study investigating the perceptions of parents of children who failed vision screening at the age of 4-5 years.

OBJECTIVE: To explore in depth parents' experiences and understanding of their children's eye care in order to better comprehend why there is relatively low uptake of services and variable adherence to treatment. DESIGN: Semistructured interviews, informed by the Health Belief framework, were conducted with parents of children who had failed vision screening at age 4-5 years. Four were parents of children who never attended follow-up, 11 had children who attended but did not adhere to spectacle wear and 5 parents of children who had attended and adhered. Interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim; thematic analysis based on the constant comparative method was undertaken. RESULTS: Parents' beliefs led to uncertainty about the benefit of treatment, with parents testing their children to confirm the presence of a vision deficit and seeking advice from other family and community members. The stigma of spectacle wear explained the resistance of some to their child's treatment with the maintenance of 'normality' often more important than clinical advice. The combination of parents' own health beliefs, stigma and the practicalities of attending appointments together influenced parental decisions. Attendance following vision screening and the decision to adhere to spectacle wear were primarily based on the perceived severity of the visual reduction with the perceived benefit of spectacle wear outweighing any negative consequences. CONCLUSIONS: Healthcare professionals require a greater understanding of parents' decision-making processes in order to provide personalised information. Knowledge of the cues to attendance and adherence provides policy makers a framework with which to review the barriers, develop strategies and redesign children's eye care pathways.